Air India, Ethiopian moving towards first 787 deliveries

Despite Friday's announcement that Air India has now been cleared to accept 787 deliveries from Boeng, it looks more likely that the first non-Japanese carrier to take ownership of a 787 will be Ethiopian.  In a press release, Ethiopian says that they will take delivery of their first 787 on August 14th and fly away on August 15th to Washington Dulles.  Air India is still trying to decide when to take formal ownership of the three 787s that are currently ready for delivery at Boeing Charleston.  The delivery is clouded by the failure of the GEnx engine in late July though the carrier is still taking delivery.  Neither the FAA or the NTSB as ordered a grounding of GEnx equipped aircraft and deliveries are continuing and are going to continue unless a significant issue is discovered by the parties investigating the incident.  Because of this Air India is obligated to take delivery of the airplanes or they can face storage fees and other costs.  The GEnx issue will nto be an impediment to delivery at this point unless there is something seriously wrong with the engine.  Air India still has to communicate to Boeing when they plan on taking the aircraft and rumors say that it could be as early as the end of this week.  I'm counting on a low key delivery ceremony given the tortuous path to delivery to Air India.  In the Wall Street Journal article, Jon Ostrower says that the three aircraft would be delivered one at a time spaced by 7 to 10 days which means that the three deliveries would take about a month to complete due to the need to send the Air India personnel back to Charleston to pick up each aircraft.

In the meantime, LAN's frst airplane, ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) has taken its first flight today and is moving towards a late August to early September delivery to the airline. I do anticipate further first flights of the 787s that are in preflight including a gaggle of 787s for ANA and JAL that are on the flightline.

Here's the text of Ethiopian's Press Release:

Ethiopian Airlines to Receive its first Boeing 787 on August 14

Press Release

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Ethiopian Airlines, the fastest growing airline in Africa, is pleased to announce that it will take delivery of its first Boeing 787 Dreamliner on August 14, 2012, in Seattle, Washington.

Ethiopian is proud to be the first airline from Africa, Europe, Americas and Middle East to take delivery of the Dreamliner, and to be able to offer its passengers the ultimate travel experience on-board this game changing aircraft before other carriers. “The fact that we are the first airline outside Japan to receive this ultra modern aircraft is an affirmation of our continuing pioneering role in African aviation. It is also a testimony of our commitment to give our passengers the best possible travel experience, with the best industry products and services.,” said Tewolde Gebremariam, CEO of Ethiopian.

After taking delivery, Ethiopian will fly its Dreamliner to Washington D.C. the next day, where the aircraft will be on display. During the exhibition, Ethiopian Dreamliner is expected to be visited by US Senators and House Representatives as well as Ambassadors, Executives from the World Bank and IMF, members of the Ethiopian community, the media and other invited guests.
Ethiopian Dreamliner, the first to be received by a non-Japanese carrier, will make its historic trip to Africa and will touchdown at Bole Addis Ababa International Airport on August 16, 2012. The airline will hold celebrations in Addis Ababa for the arrival of the aircraft and will soon announce its first Dream destinations.

Boeing to get replacement GE engine for 787

Boeing said that they are talking to GE about getting a replacement engine for the one that failed last weekend on ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ). As to impact on deliveries, Boeing is saying that no determination has been made that would impact their ability to deliver airplanes with GEnx engines. 

So obviously the engine is going to be replaced but when is not yet known.  Also Boeing is still trying to figure out (along with the NTSB and GE) what went wrong so they can determine the impact, if any, to deliveries of airplanes with GEnx engines.  I'm presuming that this will include not just the 787 but also the 747-8.  Here's a text of what Boeing sent me:

We continue to work closely with the NTSB and its party members, including GE and FAA, on the investigation. The engine will be replaced, and we're working with GE on that. Regarding deliveries, at this time, there has been no determination made that would impact our ability to deliver airplanes with GEnx engines. Of course, if at any time during the investigation it is determined that there is a need to take action, we will not hesitate to do so.

Air India to be allowed to take delivery of 787s...sort of

BREAKING...Air India's agreement with Boeing (the Delay Compensation Settlement Agreement) has been approved by to GoI's CCEA permitting Air India to take delivery of the 787s.  Further the issue of performance shortfalls and any compensation relating to that issue has been de-linked from the delay compensation issue and will be negotiated at a later date by the GoI with Boeing.

This is all good news for Boeing but Air India is stil not going to take delivery because of the GEnx-1B engine issue that arose last week.  Air India Maintenance Department wants to be sure of the safety of the engine before inducting the aircraft into AI's fleet.  There's no telling how long that will take but the GEnx engine is still flying on the 747-8 and the JAL 787s without an issue so this is another delaying tactic on Air India part...again.

Here's the text of the GoI's decision (thanks to HK Expat for the link):

Delivery of Boeing 787 Approved

CCEA Decision The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has approved the proposal of Ministry of Civil Aviation as per following: (i) Air India be allowed to take the delivery of 27 numbers of B-787 aircraft after signing the Delay Compensation Settlement Agreement. (ii) The issue relating to compensation for failure to meet performance guarantees has been delinked from the Delay Compensation Settlement Agreement, which shall be negotiated separately by an Empowered Group of Officers after actual evaluation of the performance of the delivered/inducted B-787 aircraft. The Ministry of Law & Justice would examine and endorse the enabling legal provisions / aspects of the negotiations. Air India would derive the benefits on account of the induction of the latest state-of-art technology Boeing aircraft which are more fuel efficient than its’ competitors. Background: Air India is planning to induct 27 numbers 787 aircrafts in its fleet as part of the contracted deliveries of the aircraft from M/s. Boeing. These aircrafts were scheduled to be delivered from September, 2008 to October 2011. However, due to certain design / production issues these aircraft have been delayed and are now scheduled to be delivered between June, 2012 to March, 2016.

United's First 787 Rolls out of Paint Hangar and other 787 news

United's First 787 Rolls out of Paint Hangar, a photo by The Boeing Company on Flickr.

Boeing and United Airlines rolled out the first 787 (ZA288, LN 53, N20904) for United Airlines in a webcast early this morning. The aircraft is due to be delivered by the end of September and placed into service sometime in the fall flying domestic routes at first then expanding into international routes starting with Houston - Tokyo.

Today the NTSB said that they are investigating the GEnx engine incident along with Boeign and GE at GE's plant in Oho. The engine will be trucked there in the next few days where it will be disassembled to examine each part. Prelionarily, GE is saying that there is no safety issue but they will contiue to work with the NTSB to figure out what happened. Now there is now word on if ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) is to receive a new engine or not but Boeing did fly ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) today without incident. It does look like that this icident is a one off issue as Boeing, GE and the FAA would have grounded all airplanes flying the GEnx engine which includes 20+ 747 and 4 787s.

Here's the test of the NTSB statement:

NTSB investigating Boeing 787 engine failure

July 31, 2012

WASHINGTON - The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating an engine failure that occurred on a Boeing 787 Dreamliner during a taxi test in Charleston, South Carolina.

On Saturday, July 28, 2012, Boeing and General Electric, the engine manufacturer, notified the NTSB that a Boeing 787 experienced an engine failure during a pre-delivery taxi test. As a result of the failure, it has been reported that the engine left debris on the active runway at Charleston International Airport and caused a brush fire. There were no passengers aboard the aircraft nor were there any fatalities or injuries.

Upon the notification of the incident, the NTSB sent an aviation investigator with extensive expertise in aircraft powerplants, to the scene on Sunday to gather information to better understand the circumstances of the event.

As a result, the NTSB decided to conduct an investigation and has named David Helson as the Investigator in Charge. In the next few days, an NTSB aircraft powerplants expert and a metallurgist from the NTSB Materials Lab will travel to a General Electric facility in Cincinnati, OH, to lead and coordinate the disassembly and examination of the engine in question.

The Federal Aviation Administration, Boeing and General Electric are parties to the investigation.

787 work continues despite GEnx engine issue

Work continued apace at both Everett and Boeing Charleston on the 787s that still need to be delivered.  In fact the number of planes that are in pre-flight is steadily increasing at Everett as in the number of airplanes that are entering change incorporation.
Tomorrow United Airlines will unveil it's first 787 as it is being rolled out of Boeing's paint hangar.  The rollout can be viewed by clicking here.  The roll out of ZA288 (LN 53, N27904) is to start at 8:30AM EST, 5:30AM PST. While United is unveiling it's newest addition this airplane won't actually be delivered for another 6 to 8 weeks.  It will join a gaggle of pre-flight 787s that are on the Everett ramp. 

Another JAL 787 just finished change incorporation (ZA178, LN 27) is currently in the paint hangar and most likely will be delivered sometime next month.  The number of 787s that are in change incorporation have also increased.  There are 4 Dreamliners in 40-24 for change incorporation and EMC has a full complement of 5 airplanes with another 4 outside of the hangar that are also being worked on. 

Boeing is still maintaining 35 - 42 787s to be delivered this year but it certainly looks like they have the ability to deliver more.  The long pole in the tent is issues like what cropped up with both engines (Trent 1000 and GEnx-1B) over the last few days with the GE being the most serious of the issues.  However, I do not anticipate that these events are going to be show stoppers in terms of continued delivery and safe operation of the airplanes that are or will be in service. 

Most of the noise is due to the media making it out to be more of a bigger deal just because of the history of the 787.  Scott Hamilton has put out a post where he believes that the GEnx engine problem on Saturday is a non-issue.  The NTSB is investigating and the engine which shed the parts will be torn down to discover what the problem may be.  Given that the GEnx engine is flying on both the 787 and 747 and hasn't experienced an issue thus far in revenue service of either of those airplanes.  It is too early to say if this issue will delay any 787 deliveries but GEnx powered 787s were flying today with one more flight scrapped before take off at Everett. In my opinion 787s will continued to be delivered this month.

Boeing and NTSB investigating 787 engine issue

Both Boeing and the NTSB are investigating an issue with a GEnx powered 787 that was about to conduct its first flight yesterday.  The aircraft in question is ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) for Air India.  This is the 2nd 787 built at the Boeing Charleston facility. Apparently a piece of debris fell out of the engine and landed on a grassy area next to the runway at Charleston.  The piece was apparently hot enough to spark a small fire that was promptly extinguished by the USAF fire fighting crew stationed at the joint use airport.

The investigation is in the early stages however I do think that this might be an issue that is either a one off manufacturing or maintenance issue issue with this particular aircraft and I have doubt that this would be a fleetwide issue as the GEnx-1B has been performing well up to now. I do suspect that this is more of a ground maintenance issue (perhaps something not secured properly) but the NTSB will have to make that final determination along with Boeing and GE.  At the time of the incident, ZA238 was doing taxi tests prior to undertaking its first flight.  It is not known if this will have a delivery impact on other 787s both at Charleston and Everett.  Currently there are 8 GE powered 787s that are ready or being readied for delivery including the for Dreamliners for Air India.  The other carriers include Ethiopian, Qatar, and Japan Airlines.  The aircraft for Qatar had completed a tour to the Farnborough Airshow where it performed an aerial routine for three days and returned to Everett without incident.  Jon Ostrower of the Wall Street Journal has a great article about the situation.

First 787 B-1 flight in almost 3 weeks scheduled to be conducted today

The first 787 B-1 flight to be conducted in almost three weeks is scheduled to take place today at about 10AM PT (1PM ET) today.  ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) will fly its first flight.  This aircraft is the first production airplane to be assembled though it is also the aircraft that needed the most modifications. It has been in Everett for over three years since it started final assembly. If goes according to plan, this aircraft should deliver to ANA by middle to late August depending on any issues that would need to be corrected.  The flight is on Flightaware.

According to a posting on the airliners.net forum, Boeing is planning to deliver some where around 7 '87s in August as follows:

ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) to ANA - 2nd to 3rd week of August
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to Qatar - 4th week of August
ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) to Ethiopian - 4th week of August
ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) to ANA - last week of August
ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) to LAN - last week of August
ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A) to ANA - last week of August
ZA182 (LN 70, JA828J) to JAL - last week of August

Notable is the absence of ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) which was the first 787 that did not need to go to the EMC.  This airplane probably needs a little bit more time to finish off the 300 some assembly tasks that remained after being pulled out of the assembly line.  This list has the potential of adding 3 maybe 4 more 787s if the Indian Government finally approves the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing.  That is the potential of 10 to 11 deliveries next month and would take Boeing to almost to the 2/3 point of the total 787 deliveries that they have projected for 2012 (35 to 42 with 12 currently delivered).

787 info from Boeing's 2nd quarter earnings call

                                         Ethiopian's First 787 (ZA262) returning to Everett.
                                         Photo by Bernard Leighton

Today was quite a day for Boeing and the 787. A lot of news today so let's get started

Boeing's Earnings Call

Boeing Earning's came out today and showed quite an improvement.  As far as the 787 is concerned Boeing said a few things that were already known but let's go through the highlights.  Boeing is saying that they're seeing a high level of completion of aircraft coming out the final assembly line at Everett.  It's close to 100% apparently.  They're still tracking to increase production to 5/month by the end of this year and 10/month by the end of 2014.  Boeing is expecting to see higher 2nd half 787deliveries both from aircraft coming off the assembly line as well as those finishing change incorporation.  However Boeing does expect to see an increase in inventory as deferred production balance was recorded at $13.2bn and is expected to grow to about $20bn by the time the production rate hits 10/month after which there should be decline in this balance as airplanes are cleared out of inventory and the production system stabilizes at that rate.  In terms of deliveries Boeing said the deliveries were paced by customer demands and request.  It seems that this may be the reason why there hasn't been too much 787 pre-delivery activity at Everett.  They also said that aft fuselage production is a "hot spot" for Boeing in terms of 787 production and they still have some issues there which they're addressing. It's not a show stopper for the production rate increase. Jim McNerney said that the most important thing is that production is now occurring without the need to send airplanes to the Everett Modification Center (EMC) for change incorporation.  He also said that there is plan to get the aircraft that have to go through the EMC out in an orderly fashion.  He said that the EMC will continue to see work for the next year and half plus (so let's assume for another 18 to 21 months or end of first quarter 2014). Aside from Air India (a deviation from planned deliveries) which is all to well known, Boeing does have a ramp plan for deliveries for the second half of the year.  In terms of the improvement they said that ZA182 (LN70, JA828A) had about 160 open jobs left so they're seeing a lot of improvement in the condition of assembly.  Boeing is also seeing improvement at the EMC in terms of work behind schedule and shortages. They also said that the Trent 1000 gear box issue won't affect deliveries and 4 of 5 of airplanes ANA airplanes have been fixed and it's a very minor issue.  This issue won't affect deliveries of the airplane.  Boeing also gave more indications (there is greater fidelity on the evaluation of the business case) that they will do a 787-10X and that a decision should come later this year or early next year.  McNerney said that it does look like a good airplane which would have a lot of market demand. 

Looking ahead to 787 delivery forecast for the remainder of the year, Boeing said that they still expect to deliver between 35 and 42 787s for all of 2012.  They have already delivered 11.  This means that between 24 and 31 787s will be delivered by the end of this year and this will be split 50/50 between airplanes from EMC and those coming off the final assembly lines in Everett and Charleston.  Thus Boeing is saying that they would deliver between 12 to 15 787 each from EMC and the final assembly lines over the next 5 months starting in August (1 787 already has been delivered from the EMC in July).

Air India

Delivery of Air India's 787s is one step closer as an Indian Government Group of Ministers (GoM) had approved the deal between Boeing and Air India.  The matter now goes to the Indian Cabinet for final approval.  If and when that approval is given the delivery will take place and the fly aways will occur.  It's not known when the Indian CCEA will meet next but it is at his next meeting that the compensation deal will be discussed.

Aeromexico Order

Aeromexico added to the days news with a huge letter of intent (LoI) for 90 737 MAX8 and 737 MAX 9 as well as 10 787-9.  The deal is worth about $11bn.  It is not known if this order is inclusive of options of not but when the deal is finalized the numbers will then be known.  Aeromexico currently has orders for the 787-8 (both purchase and lease) and is expected to start taking deliveries starting in 2013.

Other News

The first 787 fro Ethiopian (see picture above) flew back to Everett this afternoon. ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) flew back in the Ethiopian scheme after spending close to two weeks in Ft. Worth being painted.  There were other 787s flights today but were test airplanes conducting Boeing test flights out of Boeing Field.  It is not known when the next B-1 flights will occur next but there are still some 787s that need the new gear box fro the Trent 1000 powered airplanes.  The timing of the next 787 test flights is also clouded by the planned closure of Everett's main renway from 4pm on August 2nd to 8AM on August 6th.  It is possible that Boeing can get 1 possibly 2 787s into the air for their B-1 flight before August 2nd but only if they're ready.

Trent 1000 gear box issue holding up deliveries: Aviation Week

According to an article by Guy Norris in Aviation Week, the gear box issue is holding up deliveries of the Trent 1000 powered aircraft as Boeing needs replacement gear boxes from Hamilton Sundstrand.  There are numerous 787s on the Boeing flightline waiting to be delivered.  Of the 9 airplanes that I have listed as in final preps for delivery at Everett, 5 are equipped with the Trent 1000 engine.  According to Guy Norris' report, 17 Trents in total are affected by the gear box issue of which nine are on undelivered 787s that are earmarked for ANA.  Boeing and Rolls Royce are waiting for replacement gear boxes from Hamilton Sundstrand.  Of the other 4 787s at Everett/Ft. Worth that are waiting to be delivered, one is in paint (ZA262), one for JAL (ZA182) just emerge from the paint hangar and will robably start pre-flight work soon, the one for Qatar Airways is still finishing up interior IFE work (ZA461) and another 787 that just appeared at the Boeing fuel dock, looks to be United Airlines first 787 (ZA288) and still has to go through painting before moving on the pre-flight.  All these are equipped with the GEnx engines. 

So it appears the bottleneck may be with the gear box issue with the Trent 1000 engines as each of the 5 Trent 1000 aircraft are all at different point in the pre-flight timeline. Each aircraft has to wait it turn while the aircraft that is further along must clear each pre-flight milestone before the B-1 flight.

In the meantime, the Trent 1000 gear box issue is likely a minor problem that affects a very small portion of the 787s in service but it's an issue that has attracted significant attention because it is the 787.

Lastly, LAN says it is expected to take delivery of its first 787 (ZA536) in late August or early September.

787 power and delivery woes

With about a week to go in the month it is obvious that Boeing will have delivered only one 787 in the month but what is most disconcerting is the lack of any real progress on the Everett (and Charleston) flightline.  There are 7 Dreamliners that have "finished" final assembly and change incorporation with another two that are either being painted or are finishing up some last minute inflight entertainment installation tasks.  It's the 7 airplanes that has caught peoples' attention.  Thus far Boeing has not conducted a single 787 test flight (B-1 or otherwise) since ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) for Ethiopian flew to Ft. Worth, Texas to be painted.  That was done on July 12th.  Additionally this aforementioned aircraft should have finished its paint job and flown back to Everett. Typically painting should have been completed in about a 10 to 11 days so it should fly back any day now, perhaps tomorrow. 

The first thought that the issue might be related to the gear box issues that has grounded 5 ANA 787s (3 have since gotten replacement parts and are back in the air).  However this is an issue that has effected (it appears) some of early delivered ANA 787s with the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 engines.  There are 787s with the GEnx engine that are ready to fly but have not flown just as yet.  Whatever is keeping these planes on the ground may be fleetwide though it hasn't stopped revenue flights.  It might be that Boeing is trying to finish up assembly tasks on each of these airplanes.  Boeing will have its earnings call on Wednesday morning.  It is hoped that there would be more clarification on this issue at that time.

In the meantime, the Trent 1000 gear box issue is likely a minor problem that affects a very small portion of the 787s in service but it's an issue that has attracted significant attention because it is the 787.

Updated 787 delivery info for July and August

There is new updated delivery information from a variety of sources concerning future deliveries of the 787.  First off, ANA apparently has taken delivery of another 787 probably yesterday.  ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) was delivered and should fly to Japan tonight.  Apparently that looks to be the only delivery being made this month. However there is more clarity on future deliveries including those to Air India.
Air India - Ajit Singh, the Minister of Civil Aviation, reported that the GoI's CCEA should be taking up the matter of the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing in about 15 days. Now how soon after approval will these airplanes be delivered is another question.  According to a posting on airliners.net, the carrier can take delivery of four '87s before August 5th from the flightline at Charleston.  This is a rumor and there is nothing official to back it up as of yet.  We just have to stay tuned for this drama to play out.

LAN - The first aircraft for LAN has now been moved to the flightline and will presumably be starting the pre-flight testing prior to its B1 flight.  There has been some confusion as to when LAN will take this airplane but now there seems to be some clarification.  The CEO of LAN told Flightglobal that the carrier will take delivery in September.

ANA - ANA's 787 fleet is well into double digits with several more on the way.  There are 4 787s that are winding its way through pre-flight at Everett.  According to a posting in airliners.net, ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be making it's B1 flight tomorrow (July 18). This airplane is projected (of course not certain) to deliver around August 8th.  The three other 787s are all airplanes that didn't need any re-work done at the EMC.   It is quite possible that all these four airplanes can deliver in August though it's more likely that a couple will deliver in August and a couple more in September from this batch.  There are still 2 more late build airplanes that are in storage that wold have to finish some amount of change incorporation and I would expect that these airplanes will be delivered later this fall. a, ZA118 is registered as JA813A (LN 67).

Finally, here's an interesting article that sums up Farnborough 2012 air show from aerospace analyst Saj Ahmad.

Are 787 deliveries slowing down?

UPDATE: I got word that Qatar's first 787 will be delivered in August but it's still open as to when in August.  Given that at Everett there are only three 787s that have had their B-1 flight thus far (ANA, Qatar, & Ethiopian), I'm going to say that only one 787 will be delivered this month.  There hasn't been any word on other 787s that will have their B-1 flight but I expect that at least 2 more will take to the skies for the B-1 flight before the end of July in order to be delivered next month (ZA100 and ZA135).

There has been raised hopes and expectations that aviation geeks around the world would see an avalanche of 787 deliveries starting this summer.  However we've seen only a trickle and I am at a loss to explain it. The Everett ramp is getting full of 787s that have either finished change incorporation or are airframes that do not need to go through the EMC but just have a few hundred small jobs left to be done.  As successive airplanes come out of 40-26 the number of jobs that remain have fallen to less than 150 with ZA182 (LN 70) for JAL.  This aircraft has yet to appear on the Everett flightline though it has been more than 9 days per line move on July 3, about 12 days ago.  We may yet see ZA182 as early as tomorrow or Monday. 

In terms of getting these planes ready for delivery, while the monster jobs of change incorporation have been completed on those airplanes, there is still a long line for delivery as these planes must go through the step by step process of pre-flight ground test, Boeing flight tests, customer flight tests as well as customer inspections and quality control reviews.  It appears that there doesn't seem to be enough resources to tackle all this work for the 8-9 aircraft that are lined up ready for their turn.  Both ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) and ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) were expected to be delivered this month to ANA. It's looking like on ZA508 will make it and there is rumors of extra work needed to prepare ZA100 for flight.  This is the aircraft that needed the most rework as it was the first production standard 787 to enter final assembly.  It is not known when this airplane is to finally take to the air.

In the meanwhile the first 787 for LAN, ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) is now on the 40-51 ramp after being painted and is presumably finishing up some assembly tasks.  There is some controversy about when it is to be delivered. with some reports saying delivery is in August but LAN is saying that they expect to take delivery of its first 787 late this year.  Right next to is a 787 for ANA registered JA813A.  This is registration that was assigned to ZA510 (LN 59) and previously I had it listed as in storage and not undergoing any change modification.  I doubt that this airplane could have prepared to quickly though it is possible that this airplane may certainly have had some work completed while outside the EMC and it engines attached. I'm trying to find out the true identity of this airplane beyond the registration.  There are some late build 787, notably ZA118 (LN 67, JA816A) and ZA119 (LN 69, JA817A) that have "gone missing."  I'm assuming that these airplanes, if one of them is not the ANA 787 that currently is sitting on the 40-51 ramp, are in the paint hangar.

Lastly, it is quite possible that ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) for Ethiopian and ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways could be ready for delivery by the end of this month.  The former has conduct two Boeing test flights (including the ferry flight to Ft worth) and is currently being painted in Texas. I would expect this airplane back in Everett in about 7 to 8 days. It could could still conceivably conduct customer flights after its return to Everett before the end of the month.  ZA461 is more of a question mark as Boeing needs to complete some interior assembly tasks (may be related to the IFE System) prior to further Boeing and customer test flights.  Again it is entirely possible that his airplane could deliver by the end of this month.

Don't even ask me about Air India.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 4

Farnborough 2012 concluded with a bang from Boeing and United Airlines.  A huge 150 aircraft deal for 100 737 MAX 9 and 50 737-900ER all firm.  Airbus did well with the widebody A330 but no orders for the A350 or A380.  In fact Airbus admitted that it wold be a stretch to book 30 A380 orders this year.  They were hoping for a book to bill ratio of 1 in that program this year.  Here's the final tally for this years air show:

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
Avolon - 15 x A320NEO - MoU
CALC - 28 x A320, 8 X A321 - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
CIT Group - 5 x A330- Firm
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU
Middle East Airlines - 5 x A320NEO, 5 x A321NEO - MoU
Synergy - 6 x A330-200, 3 x A330-200F - Firm
UTAir - 20 x A321 - MoU

ATR
Air Lease Corp - 2 x ATR 72-600
LAO Airlines - 2 x ATR 72-600
Nordic Aviation - 1 x ATR 42-600
TransAsia - 8 x ATR 72-600

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
Avolon - 10 x 737 MAX 8, 5 x 737 MAX 9, 10 x 737-800 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU
United Airlines - 100 x 737 MAX 9, 50 x 737-900ER - Firm

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI
Chorus Aviation - 6 x Q400 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Mitsubishi
SkyWest Airlines - 100 x MRJ - MoU

Sukhoi
Interjet - 5 x SSJ-100

First 787 for LAN painted and on the flightline

Everett photographer Matt Cawby got a stunning photo of LAN's first 787 ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) out on the 40-51 ramp after being painted.  The aircraft though reported by CAPA to be delivered in November is supposed to be delivered in August.  I expect that LAN should have at least two more 787s delivered by the end of this year.

787 production improving says Pat Shanahan

Speaking at the Farnborough Air Show, Pat Shanahan  is indicating that the backlog of 787s at Everett will be gone sooner then everyone realizes.  Boeing is making constant progress on the production front to such an extent that the backlog of 787s that are complete and ready to be delivered is growing.  The situation has been likened to people waiting on line at the market waiting to check out with each person waiting their turn on line.  The rate of 787s being released from production however, is exceeding the delivery rate though this should turn around sometime around the fall.  Dominic Gates put together a piece on the 787 production rebound and plans for future production of the 787-9 and the 777X at Everett as well as the future of the EMC and the 787 surge line.  It is expected that the surge line should be activated for production sometime this fall and allowing Boeing to go t o 5/month.  Dominic also confirmed the ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be delivered this month to ANA.  This is the first 787 to enter final assembly back in June 2009.  It has taken three years to deliver this airplane.

Other 787 News

During this pas week, Rolls Royce announced at the Farnborough 2012 air show that they will develop a new version of the Trent 1000 engine called Trent 1000-TEN (for Thrust, Efficiency and New technology).  This engines is to have a 3% improvement in specific fuel consumption over the current package "B" Trent 1000 though I'm not sure how it compares to the the Package "C" engine which is currently undergoing testing in Derby, UK.  The engine is to power the 787-8, 787-9 and the proposed 787-10 aircraft at a thrust of 76,000 lbs but can go as high as 78,0000.  The idea of being able to power all three versions of the 787 is to provide for commonality for customers who order different versions of the aircraft.  It'll be interesting to see if there is commonality across the older versions of the Trent 1000 family.  The engine is expected to enter service in 2016 though a customer has yet to commit to the engine.  Click here to read Rolls Royce's press release.

The Air India saga continues with no delivery date in sight unfortunately.  Final approval could come tonight or it could come when hell freezes over, I'm betting on the later.  Reuters put out an article describing how the Air India 787 order is in the limbo by being caught in the Government of India bureaucracy.  Currently the Ministry of Civil Aviation is waiting for some sign off from some obscure other department and then some such committee can sign off on the compensation deal between Boeing and Air India.  This can really mess with your head. Bottom line is that the 4 airplanes currently sitting on the Charleston flightline aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 3

Farnborough 2012 is starting to wind down though I do expect one more big order from United Airlines to come through tomorrow.  Rumor has it that this will be for the 737 MAX and the order wll be announced in Chicago. I'll still list it here as part of the running order totals from Farnborough.

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
CALC - 28 x A320, 8 X A321 - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
CIT Group - 5 x A330- Firm
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU

ATR
Air Lease Corp - 2 x ATR 72-600
LAO Airlines - 2 x ATR 72-600
Nordic Aviation - 1 x ATR 42-600
TransAsia - 8 x ATR 72-600

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
Avolon - 10 x 737 MAX 8, 5 x 737 MAX 9, 10 x 737-800 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Mitsubishi
SkyWest Airlines - 100 x MRJ - MoU

Sukhoi
Interjet - 5 x SSJ-100

787 delivery insight from CAPA

Center of Aviation has released it 787 delivery expectations for several carriers, including Air India.

To summarize, CAPA says that they do expect Air India to take delivery of the 3 787s that are parked at Charleston sometime this month.  We're still waiting word from the Government of India if they have approved the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing. I expect that the only other airline to take 787s this month will be ANA which has several that are ready to be delivered this month and next month.  Air India is expecting 4 more planes by the end of the year.

CAPA is expecting that Qatar and Ethiopian will receive their first 787s in August and thus far that looks to be the case as ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) took its first flight yesterday but still has to be painted. It should receive three more before the end of the year.  Qatar's first 787 (ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) is finishing up its Farnborough tour tomorrow and returning to Everett that evening.  It will undergo further outfitting at Everett.  Qatar should receive 4 more planes by the end of the year.

China Southern will take its first 787 in August as well and will have a special scheme on it. IT should receive 2 more by the end of the year.  The three airplanes are still undergoing change incorporation with two of them inside the EMC.

United released images of the special livery scheme that will be painted on their 787s.  They're expecting their first plane in September reports are between September 15th and September 30).  It will receive one more in October, 2 in November and one more in December for a total of 5 by the end of the year.

Interestingly, the CAPA report says that LAN will get its first 787 in October.  Currently the first one is in the paint hangar, presumably being painted.  I don't know if this is true or if Boeing is going to hang on to the airplane until October.  It does look like it is ready for delivery though and LAN should take 2 this year and three next year.  There is one more currently in final assembly and one more should enter 40-26 by middle of next month.  I do think that Boeing could deliver one each month from August to October for a total of three. There are two more that are being stored on the flightline at Everett.

Lastly LOT Polish Airlines is slated to receive one 787 in November but there is one that is in change incorporation right now with four more slated to start final assembly between the end of July and middle of October.  Surely several of these airplanes should be ready before November?

Interesting we should look at the totals that are expected to be delivered for the aforementioned carriers:

Air India - 7
China Southern - 3
Ethiopian - 4
Qatar - 5
LAN - 2
LOT Polish - 1
United - 5

This adds to 27.  Add the 11 delivered so far and you're at 38.  I expect that JAL should get at least 4 more and ANA should get 6 more before the end of the year.  That is 48 total deliveries.  My target for Boeing is 50.  Clearly with Air India expecting to take delivery starting this month we can see a big 2nd half from the 787 in terms of deliveries of the airplane to customers.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 2

More 737 MAX activity from Boeing but Airbus and Cathay Pacific make a little noise as well today.For all the hype surroundng "Boeing's Show", it really is a slow.

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Farnborough 2012 - Day 1

First day at Farnborough was Boeing's day and already there are rumors that there will be more 737 MAX deals with GECAS and United Airlines on the order of 75 and 100 each respectively.  The United order announcement is rumored to take place in Chicago which is where the corporate headquarters for both UAL and Boeing are located.  The GECAS order might be announced tomorrow. Here's a review of the order action at Farnborough 2012:

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Updated 787 Production - 7/5/2012

The 787 production and disposition list has been updated to reflect the firing order for airplanes 81 to 90.  This lot of aircraft should be in production through mid-October 2012.  There are no new customers on the list but LOT Polish Airlines will receive its 3rd, 4th and 5th 787s from a total order of 8.  All these aircraft should be delivered, assuming no issues with production or the aircraft, by the end of this year.  The airlines that are to get aircraft from this lot of 10 are Hainan (2), ANA, JAL (2), LOT Polish (3), Qatar, and Air India.  Airplane 90 also marks a start of the block point of 787s where Boeing is to get the 787-8 down to the promised contractual weight when the program was launched in 2004.  The airline that will receive the first aircraft in this block point is Air India, surprisingly.  Please note that this firing order can change between know and the time that these airplanes start final assembly perhaps even after they've been rolled out of the final assembly hall.

787 Movement - July 3, 2012

There was quite a bit of moving around for Boeing's 787 inventory both in Everett and in Charleston. To start, Boeing confirmed that the two Air India 787s that are ready for delivery were flown to Charleston to free up space on the Everett ramp.  Boeing said that it was a good move as several of the first few Charleston built planes are also destined for Air India.  Speaking of Air India 787 deliveries, there is word that the Ministry of Aviation won't sign off on the deal until next week because one of the ministers is on vacation.  Apparently in India business stops if someone is out on vacation.  IF, and that is really big IF, everything get signed off by the government of India deliveries conceivably can start towards the end of next week or early the following week.  There is a great article in the Charleston Regional Business Journal about Air India, the 787s and the attitude behind the whole fiasco but it sums up the attitude of the GoI and Air India quite nicely.

Boeing flew ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to Boeing Field on Sunday in preparation for it to fly to Farnborough on Thursday.  Word is delivery to Qatar Airways should occur the week of July 16th IF (another big IF) there are no contractual hang ups.  A date has not been set and given the unpredictability of Qatar CEO Akbar Al Baker this rough time frame could slide.  Qatar's pilots still has to fly the aircraft I believe and this probably won't occur until after the Farnborough Air Show.  The airplane is flying July 9th to July 11th and I anticipate that it should return to Everett on July 11th.  When it returns to Everett this plane will be carrying two Qatar Airways pilots who might conduct customer flights and may eventually ferry the aircraft back to Doha when delivery is complete.  It is conceivable that Qatar could take delivery before Air India making this carrier the third airline to fly the 787 and the first one outside of Japan.

ANA took delivery of its 10th 787 on Sunday, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) then flew to Haneda International Airport last night.  ANA should be taking delivery of 4 to 5 more 787s by the end of August given the number that is in pre-flight.  Another ANA 787 will be pushed out the door tonight.  This airplanes is ZA119 (LN 69) will go to the 40-51 ramp to finish off minor assembly tasks before going off to paint.

On the production front, Boeing pulled out ZA238 (LN 54) from building 88-03 in Charleston.  It is now on the flight line along with the other three Air India bound 787s. No word on if assembly has started on ZA431 (LN 76) for Hainan Airlines but I'm assuming for now that parts are still arriving. At Everett, Boeing has moved another 787 inside the EMC. ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) for Qatar Airways is now inside where it is continuing with change incorporation along with units for China Southern, United and JAL.  One or both of the China Southern airplanes should be out by August where it will go through painting and go into pre-flight.  This airline can possibly take delivery in September.

I have updated the tables below to reflect the current disposition of all the 787s that are in production or have been delivered.  Have a safe and Happy 4th of July!

Air India 787s on the move, Qatar 787 readied for Farnborough

Over the weekend Matt Cawby spotted the two Air India 787s that are ready for delivery sporting temporary US registration numbers on their fuselages.  This lead to speculation that the aircraft are to be flown out of Everett for possible storage, maybe in the desert.  Well the speculation was mostly correct.  The two 787s, ZA233 (LN 29,VT-AND) and ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) will be flown to Charleston to join sistership ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) on Monday, July 2nd.  Now the reason why it is being flown to Charleston isn't officially disclosed but the obvious reason could be for a triple delivery to AIr India and that still could happen but sources have told me that delivery to Air India is still listed as "TBD".   It is conceivable that these three airframes for Air India will be delivered from Charleston but another reason is that if Boeing is able to turn the keys over to the carrier between July 4th and July 8th, they will be unable to fly away during those dates as the runway at Everett will be closed.  This way Boeing leaves open the delivery and fly away during those dates by transferring these airplanes to Charelston.  The most likely reason is to free up space in Everett for other aircraft that are ready to be delivered.  Already ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) is already out of paint and need to prepare for pre-flight. ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is currently sitting in the fuel dock sans its rudder (don't know why) this aircraft is projected to be delivered at the end of July but it still needs to have its rudder reattached and go through pre-flight.  The pace of aircraft reaching the flightline ready for pre-flight is quickening and Boeing needs the space.  Given the uncertainty of the Air India deliveries this is a good move to keep the pace at Everett moving.  ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways is already at Boeing Field to prepare to fly to Farnborough later this week this airplane is still projected to deliver later this month.  Another flightline stall should open up tomorrow as ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) will deliver today, as far as I know, and should fly away tomorrow July 2.  ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) should deliver around July 11th with fly away on July 12th.

On Tuesday another line move should occur which will push out ZA119 (LN 69) for ANA and will mark the start of final assembly for ZA537 (LN 74) for LAN.

787 Flying During Farnborough

This morning Boeing announed that the ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways will be flying demonstration flight from July 9 to July 11th during the Farnborough Airshow.  This is the first time Boeing will be flying acommercial demonstration at an air show in over 25 years. Rumor has it that Boeing is doing this at the behest of Qatar Airways chairman Akbar Al-Baker (U-Turn Al) but that is not confirmed.  According to Randy's Blog, ZA461 should arrive at Farnborough on Thursday July 5th.  It will fly a validation flight the next day and fly demonstration flights on 4pm each day from July 9th to July 11th.  The demo flight is 7 minutes long and will be flown by Boeing pilots.

The aircraft will have to leave from Boeing Field, according to Matt Cawby, the runway at Everett will be closed from July 4th to July 8th re-opening on July 9th.  This also means no B-1 787 flights or delivery fly aways during this period.  If there are to be any B-1 flights prior to the runway shut down, it would most likely be ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) as this one seems closest to conducting any B-1 flights.  It is also possible that the two Air India 787s at Everett can be delivered before the runway closure but again this is all dependent on the Indian Government approving the deal between Air India and Boeing.  I have no word on when this may happen.

In the meantime, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) was supposed to have been delivered yesterday but appeared to have been taken on another test flight yesterday evening and is know expected to be delivered on July 1st and expected fly away on July 2nd.

787 Half Time Report

So now that we're coming to half way through the year I thought to do a brief review and then look forward to the second half of the 787 ball game.
Deliveries in the first half were shaky. We got word of the incorrectly installed shims on the horizontal tailplane (HTP) on many of the aircraft that were built and in service. This slowed down deliveries as it wasn't a hard problem to solve but more of a question of access to the areas of the aircraft that needed correction. As a consequence we've only seen 11 deliveries (what will be 11 deliveries by June 30th). There weren't any deliveries in February and May. The former probably due to the shim issue and the later due to issues with Air India. It was expected that Air India would have taken two 787s in May. It is now looking more like a July delivery though if the GoI approves the agreement between Boeing and Air India. ANA will be taking delivery of one 787, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A), on June 28th and should fly away on June 29th.  When this airplane is delivered Boeing would have turned over 11 787s so far this year. There is a slight chance that if the GoI approves the deal between Air India and Boeing on June 28th then Boeing could possibly deliver 2 or possibly all 3 787s that are currently ready for the carrier.

As we got into late spring early summer Boeing was now sending complete aircraft that had went through the full change incorporation process and were ready for pre-flight. These airplanes were augmented on the flightline by the first airplanes that go straight from the assembly line to the flightline (ok so maybe a slight detour to get a few minor jobs done). This is a major accomplishment for Boeing as now they have more certainty in the supply chain and their production system. ZA135 (LN 66) still had a about 300 small jobs to be completed but as Boeing get further into regular production, the number of these jobs will shrink. 

So in short by the end of June Boeing will have delivered 11 787 so far in 2012 and they will have 10 more that are ready for delivery in July and into August.  This number also includes the three for Air India that are ready to be delivered so Boeing really has 7 to work on as far as delivery preparations are concerned.

Can Boeing deliver 10 next month?  It sure is possible but they will need to devote a lot of resources to get those planes ready, especially those coming off the assembly line.  Currently ZA 135 (LN 66) just made its way into the paint hangar today while ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is now on the flightline ready for ground and flight tests.  They still have to deal with the other aircraft that are coming off the assembly line,  currently 1 787 every 9 days, the next line move is July 3.  Boeing should push out 4 787s from 40-26 to the flightline during the month of July but I don't think they'll deliver in July due to the backlog of airplanes that are currently have to go through pre-flight.

Looking forward.

The next 6 months ahead is full of promise with deliveries to a lot different customers but also challenges when Boeing attempts to ramp to 5/month which I anticipate should occur around October.  Beyond ANA and JAL, Boeing should deliver to Air India (fingers crossed), Qatar Airways, Ethiopian, LAN, United, LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan and China Southern.  I'm still maintaining my view that Boeing will deliver 21 airframes straight from the assembly line (no change incorporation) in addition to the 11 that were delivered in the first half of this year.  That is 32 airplanes.  Add to that at least 4 787s (I think they do have the capability to deliver 5-6) from Charleston and yo are now at 36.  There are currently 6 more that are in various stages of pre-flight (doesn't include LN66 and above or anything built in Charleston) or ready for delivery.  Now we are at 42. Assuming 1.5 787s per month delivered from the inventory that is stored around Everett (that is 9, then we can realistically see 51 deliveries this year.  This does not even factor in other production positives like activation of the surge line or the increase to 5/month.  The final total could be substantially higher than 51 787s with these conditions factored in.  Again this is all assuming that production continues without a hitch and that Boeing continues to drive down the assembled 787 inventory.

More 787s coming out the door - June 22, 2012

Boeing is really on a roll in terms of getting 787s outthe door and prepared for delivery.  Tonight ZA536 (LN 68) will pushed out the door and parked on the 40-51 ramp to finish off minor assembly tasks before moving on to the paint hangar and then on to pre-flight.  This airplane will be the first one for LAN.   I'm not sure if the other airframes on the apron will be moved to make room for the third airplane.  Additionally, ZA262 (LN 49) for Ethiopian was moved from the Everett Modification Center to the Fuel Dock.  I suspect it will go through paint and fueling tests before moving out to flightline for pre-flight in the next couple of weeks.  Word is that we should see the first flight of Qatar's first 787, ZA461 (LN 59, A7-BCB) this Sunday but that is the rumor for now and nothing concrete as of yet.  Lastly, United Airlines confirmed that it will be receiving its first 787 in September.  More than likely this will be ZA288 (LN 53, N27904).  This aircraft is still in the EMC being prepared for delivery but recently had its GEnx engines attached.

June 20, 2012 - Busy day for 787 program

There was a lot going on today with the 787 program.  First, Qatar first 787, ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) made an appearance on the flightline fully painted.  Matt Cawby got a very nice picture of it. This aircraft was parked in stall 107 which had been occupied by ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) for Air India.  This air frame was moved to the Fuel Dock until spot opens up when one of the ANA 787s fly away in the next two days.  Speaking of ANA 787s, they're been newsworthy.  First it was revealed to Reuters that the dimmable windows are not dark enough.  Why they're raising this question now instead of when PPG was developing them for the 787 is not known.  Apparently the shades are letting in enough light so that the customers can't sleep.  I don't know if there is a remedy to ANA's concerns but the aircraft nonetheless is performing extremely well in passenger service.  Japan Airlines has not complained about the windows and they're flying the aircraft on several long haul routes. However the issue will not slow down deliveries of the aircraft to ANA.  Today ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) took its B-1 flight in preparation to being delivered. I expect that this airplane should deliver next month.  Finally it is still expected that ANA will take delivery of ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) today though I am awaiting confirmation of this.

Two ANA 787s to deliver later this week

I just got word that ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) will deliver tomorrow to ANA with fly away on the 21st (Thursday).  ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A) will deliver on the 21st and fly away on the 22nd (Friday).

787 Deliveries to take place soon

According to a post on a forum on Airliners.net, ANA should be taking delivery of 2 787s. ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) will deliver tomorrow June 18 and ZA507 (LN48, JA810A) will deliver on June 19.  Additionally ZA509 (LN56, JA812A) will deliver on June 28th according to the post.  In terms of the Air India deliveries, that is still to be determined.  It seems that the GoI has not given the go ahead as of yet on the deal between Air India and Boeing.  If approval comes this week then I can see deliveries starting very soon thereafter.

July deliveries

The post also said that ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) and ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) will be delivered around July 31 and July 11 respectively and it may be possible for ZA135 (LN 66, JA813A) to be delivered during this month as well, this aircraft is still undergoing final assembly tasks on the apron.  Qatar Airways, it seems may not take delivery this month but that Boeing will conduct its first flight and then send it to Farnborough under Boeing control and ownership after which Boeing will complete all necessary pre-delivery operations prior to handing the aircraft over to Qatar Airways.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see further handover of aircraft to JAL and Air India in July.

Finally, I expect a line move late this week, around Friday the 22nd which should push out the first 787 for LAN, this is ZA536 (LN 68).

Three paint hangars, three 787s

I got some more information last night and while I added it to my previous post I've also decided to start a new post as I see this as significant.  Everett has three paint hangars and by tonight those three paint hangars will be filled with 787s that will be delivered by the end of July.  They are:
45-01 - ZA118 (LN 67) this will be in there tonight
45-03 - ZA100 (LN 7) first 787 to enter production
45-04 - ZA461 (LN 58) first 787 for Qatar Airways

In my mind ZA100 is a milestone.  This 787 entered final assembly about 3 years ago but has mostly sat in storage after being rolled out in the fall of 2009 waiting for change incorporation after flight testing was completed.  Because it was the first to enter assembly it had the most work that needed to be done though most of the last three years it was sitting in storage.

There is a line move tonight with ZA118 leaving position 4 in 40-26 and going straight to the paint hangar.  Over the next week we should see these three 787s emerging from the paint hangar and go directly to the flightline for preflight testing and work.  With the exception of ZA461, these plans should deliver in July.

June 12, 2012 787 delivery watch and other 787 news

UPDATE (6/12/12, 8:45 PM):  There will be a line move tomorrow but on top of that there was some movement of several Qatar Airways 787s.

ZA118 (LN 67) will go straight from 40-26 to the paint hangar 45-01.  Sounds like there aren't very many jobs to do on this one and can go to preflight. 
ZA461 (LN 58) has gone from Stall 106 to the paint hangar 45-04 sounds like we'll finally see a 787 in Qatar Airways color scheme.
ZA460 (LN 57) went to EMC position Z
ZA511 (LN 63) went to EMC position 3
ZA463 (LN 64) went to EMC position E replacing ZA100 (LN 7)
ZA100 (LN 7) went to paint hangar 45-03 for painting seems this one is done

Lots of news out today.

ZA509 flies

ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) flew for the first time this afternoon. This is the first 787 to conduct a a B-1 flight in over three weeks.  Boeing had filed numerous flight plans over the past few days but it finally took off this afternoon. If there aren't too many issues then it should deliver by the end of this month.  it is still unknown why it has taken so long between B-1 flights for the787 and why ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) and ZA509 (LN 48, JA810A) have not been delivered to ANA.  ZA506 did have an experimental sticker and an N registration on it but those have since been removed.  I can speculate that this airplane conducted some certification activities, possibly connected to software upgrades, and Boeing is waiting on final FAA approval before signing the airplanes over to ANA.  The fact that ZA509 finally took flight might be an encouraging sign that is approval is close or already in hand.

United to take 787 delivery in September

Jeff Smisek, the CEO of United said today at a shareholder meeting that the airline will take delivery of the first Dreamliner in September and will have 5 to 6 787s by the end of the year.  Currently there are 5 787s that are assembled and two of the five that are currently undergoing change incorporation.  ZA290 (LN 77) will be assembled in Everett and I expect that this airplane will enter final assembly sometime around early September.  Boeing can certainly deliver all these 787s to UAL by the end of the year as they probably don't have much change incorporation to be done.

Air India

The word is the the GoI will take up the compensation agreement between Air India and Boeing this week and that first delivery should take place next week.  Though this is India and they do love their little drama so I'm not going to believe it until all three 787s, ZA 233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) and ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI), are all on Indian soil.

Qatar Airways

Of all the 787 that would make a lot of noise I was expecting Qatar Airways, not Air India but some how Air India was able to supplant Akbar Al-Baker as the most annoying (and most dislike) customer in the airline industry.  I know I'm comparing an individual with a company but you get the idea.  Anyway we've heard not a peep from one of the most vocal airlines in the world.  I did get word that delivery of Qatar's first 787 should take place by the end of the month.  Further I got confirmation of the following piece of information that was in a Qatar Airways press release:
The Doha-based airline is preparing to take delivery of five 787s during 2012, with the first set to arrive in Qatar this summer.

The carrier will initially operate the aircraft on intra-Gulf routes to provide flight crew with training hours before Qatar Airways’ 787 is scheduled to appear on static display at the Farnborough Air Show in July and then enter its first long-haul commercial service on the Doha – London Heathrow route.

If so then Boeing will need to deliver Qatar's first 787 by the end of this month if it is to conduct inter-Gulf flights for a week and then go to Farnborough for the air show which starts July 9th.  It is entirely possible that the airline can take delivery by the end of the first week of July and then fly it to Farnborough for the show.  I say this because as of today the plane is still in a flightline stall and there is still work being done on the aircraft and has yet to run its engines for the first time let alone make a B-1 flight.  If ZA461 (LN 58) isn't on the ramp at Farnborough a 777-300ER would be in its place) then you can expect U-Turn Al to be back to his normally bombastic self thus regaining his title over Air India.

Production

I expect there to be another line move if not today then by Thursday at the latest.  LN 67 should be pushed out and should be in a similar condition as LN 66.  This airplane is also for ANA and should most certainly deliver next month.  Related to production, Flightglobal writer Steven Trimble came out with an article saying that Boeing is pushing the activation of the surge line to the end of September, ostensibly the start of the 4th quarter.  The reason being is that Boeing wants to use the line for chane incorporation for the 39 787s that are out on the Everett ramp.  According to Trimble the line is completely ready to support production of the 787s but Boeing wants to use it for change incorporation during the summer.  This may make sense as it have two positive effects...1) it allows Boeing to work through the 39 planes that are still need to be finished that more faster thus reducing inventory on the balance sheet and boking revenues on the income statement and 2) it allows Boeing to refine and double check it plans for the surge line and for the rate increase to 5/month that will come this fall.  Boeing and its supplies cannot fail on this rate increase and must make sure that it occurs seamlessly across the supply chain.  I wouldn't be surprised if some of the 787s that are currently in final assembly are moved to the surge line to finish off some of the minor assembly tasks.

787-9/787-10

Jim Albaugh speaking yesterday said that the 787-10 would be launched before a 777X as it is the derivative that is the most further along.  According to Scott Hamilton who cites a Bernstein Research note, the 787-10 launch is almost a certainty.  The 787-9 development is proceeding well and will go into production on the surge line next year. 

The same Bernstein Research note also raised Boeing outlook based on improvement in the 787 program and in particular the production.  It cites supplier performance as a huge factor in the improved production outlook.  See the Reuters article that talks about the Bernstein note here.

Performance of ANA 787s

Word is coming out that the performance of ANA 787s on long haul flights is 21% better compared to the 767-300ER that they're replacing.  This is compared to the 20% that Boeing was aiming for when they started marketing the 787 to the airlines. These are the overweight aircraft that are equipped with the Trent 1000 package "B" engines that have SFC bought to within 1% of Rolls Royce's performance guarantees.  One can only imagine what the performance will be like on the later 787s which are delivered at the promise weight (Boeing is getting there) along with the improved engines coming out from both GE (PIP2) and Rolls Royce (package "C").

Boeing's 787 inventory plan

Boeing has about $24bn in 787 inventory sitting around Paine Field in Everett waiting to be delivered.  They have 9 planes in preflight 5 for ANA , 3 for AIr India and 1 for Qatar Airways. After that they have 39 more that have to go through change incorporation. Looking at what has been delivered, what is going to be delivered and the air frames that are undergoing change incorporation, one thing stands out clearly:  Boeing will prepare and deliver the later built air frames (airplanes 31 to 65) as they require significantly less rework compared to airplanes 4 to 30.  Boeing will continue to focus on getting airplanes 31 to 65 out the door with change incorporation along side the airplanes that don't need to go through the costly change incorporation.  Many of these late planes don't need much re-work at all thus allowing Boeing to get them to customers faster and book the revenues sooner.

The numbers tell the story. 

Of the 11 airplanes that have been delivered 4 are LN 30 and below (36% of the deliveries so far). 

Of the airplanes that are currently ready to be delivered (the 9 in preflight) there is one that is coming from the batch of LN 30 and below (11% of the 9 airplanes that I categorize as preflight). 

Of the airplanes that are currently in the change incorporation process (in building 40-24, EMC or other buildings for re-work purposes) there are 5 out of 11 airplanes which I categorized as actively going through change incorporation (as opposed to storage/change incorporation Dreamliners which are mainly being stored).  That is about 45% of the 11 airplanes being worked on.

Of the 28 airplanes that I count as being stored (not actively being worked on), 16 are from LN 4 to LN 30 or about 57%.  I expect that by the end of this year most of the airplanes from LN 31 to LN 65 will be in customer hands. 

As Boeing works through the late builds they'll start to switch to re-working the early build 787s and prepare them for delivery but in doing so, these airplanes will spend more time in the EMC thus slowing down deliveries from the change incorporation batch of 787 in 2013-2014.  I think it is reasonable to assume that Boeing cost for these airplanes are going to shoot through the roof owing to the amount of work that has to be done on these airplanes.
In other news, Boeing is finally getting some of the preflight 787s back into the air.  ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A) should be flying today as will ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) which will be making its first flight.  It does seem that deliveries are getting close but I have yet to get any information about this.
Boeing is now trying to finalize an order for 5 787s with Batik Air (owned by Lion Air).  No word on when this will be finalized or which version of the 787 they're buying.

The mystery of 787 number 66 part deux

Well there seems to be a little bit more clarity on ZA135 (LN 66) and whether this airplane is in for storage or if it is being prepared for delivery.  Yesterday the a picture by Moonm showed ZA135 (LN 66) with engines hanging but with all the windows and doors sealed.  There was considerable debate what this meant and if it was a sign that this airplane still had to go through change incorporation.  Today local Everett photographer Matt Cawby flew around Paine Field and some of his photos showed ZA135 being worked on outside building 40-51.  Of particular interest is that this airplane now has some of the window and door seals removed.  The window masking is still on (presumably in preparation for painting).  This is a good sign that Boeing intends to move this airplane into the standard pre-delivery work and test flights.  Another less obvious sign is that Boeing moved one 787 from one flightline stall to another. ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern went from stall 102 to stall 201.  Stalls 101 to 109 have been used by Boeing to prepare 787s for delivery. It's conceivable that stall 102 is where ZA135 will be parked as it is prepared for delivery.  Lastly, Matt's photos shows the wheels of the airplane uncovered as opposed to those that are being stored around Paine Field.  This indicates that Boeing will be moving the airplane from its current spot soon.  Where to is another question. The next movement of this airplane will give a more clear indication of the future of this airplane and whether Boeing has indeed turned the corner in 787 production.  It is very, very close.

Air India and Boeing come to an agreement

Media outlets in of India are reporting that Air India and Boeing have come to an agreement over the 787 delays.  Those reports did not specify the form of compensation though it may involve Air India paying less for each 787 as they are delivered.  The agreement has to be approved by the Government of India so that is a reason to be cautious of this agreement.  It was the Government of India that insisted on more compensation than had been previously agreed with Boeing.

If approval is given, Air India will take delivery of three 787s: ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH), ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) all in June.  ZA233 is already to go now and I suspect that ZA236 is not that far behind.  ZA237 is being painted and has still go through a few more Boeing test flights as well customer tests before it is delivered by the end of this month.

If the approval is given, Boeing can potentially deliver 8 787s this month.  4 787s to ANA that are on the flightline right now: ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A), ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A), ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A), ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A).  Additionally Boeing can deliver ZA461 (LN 58) to Qatar Airways this month.  This would make 8 airplanes including the three for Air India.  ZA135 (LN 66) is an unknown but should be ready for delivery if not by the end of June then certainly in early to mid July.

The mystery of 787 number 66

Well a partial mystery.  In an earlier post, I revealed that ZA135 (LN 66) was pulled out of the final assembly line in building 40-26  and out onto the apron in front of Boeing's final assembly hall.  At the time I wasn't sure if it had engines attached or if the airplane was buttoned up.  Thanks to a spotter in the Everett area the airplane is buttoned up (windows and doors are covered up and sealed). However it does have the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 hanging from the wings. Boeing has not equipped 787s with engines until they are ready to be delivered.  However, the airplanes are sealed if they are going to spend time in storage until it has to go through change incorporation.  It seems that there is a mixed message with this airplane.  Perhaps it is ready to go straight to the flightline for the standard pre-delivery work including painting but Boeing needs to deliver the other 787s that are on the verge of delivery.  There are 4 787s that are being readied for delivery to ANA along with one for Qatar and two for Air India.  Perhaps there is a small amount of work that needs to be done on this airplane and then it can go straight into pre-delivery?  I suspect the answer is something in between.  Where this airplane goes will be the next clue as to the state of the 787 program.  If there is still work to be done and it has an extended stay on the Boeing tarmac, that is not good at least in the short term and the expectation that Boeing has turned the corner on the program would be severely damaged.  If however the plane is able to take flight before the end of the month then it's not an issue and Boeing would have truly turned a corner.

Another 787 pushed out, airplane 66 out the door

Boeing has pushed out ZA135 (LN 66) from build 40-26.  This is supposed to be the first airplane that goes from assembly line to flightline.  Currently it is parked on the 40-51 (building) apron west.  I don't know if it has its engines attached or not but hopefully a spotter would be able to get photos of it to determine if it engineless and buttoned up like other 787s that have to go through the change incorporation process or if the windows and doors are uncovered and the airplane has its engines hanging off the wings.  If, as expected, this airplane has its engines then it should be ready to go to paint/aqueous wash followed by ground and flight testing prior to delivery to ANA.
We have to wait and see but this information is current as of today. 

Additionally there are 3 787s in 40-24 undergoing change incorporation.  These airplanes are ZA175 (LN 20) for JAL, ZA261 (LN 44) for Ethiopian and ZA287 (LN 52) for United.

No word on upcoming deliveries in June as of yet.

Boeing asked to pay for Air India's mistakes and ineptitude

How much does Air India want Boeing to pay for AI's mismanagement and incompetence...$1,000,000,000.00.  That amount is equal to over $37mm per 787.  Now Boeing does owe Air India compensation for the delays but certainly $37mm is waaaay over the top.  What Air India wants Boeing to do is pay for years of bureaucratic mistakes and idiocy at the air line.  They couldn't even effectively merge Air India and Indian Airlines and the result is a huge strike that is financially hurting the airline.  Now Air India want Boeing to pay for the financial costs of the strike.

Air India, of course, has no where to go and at the end they will have to blink.  Boeing can easily deliver these airplanes to another customer though Boeing would have to hold on the the 787s while the BFE (buyer furnished equipment) is delivered to them for installation.  Air India would be without the fuel efficient aircraft it so desperately needs to remain competitive with Emirates, Qatar Airways and other international carriers and it will further hurt their bottom line.  I certainly hope that Boeing doesn't blink.  They shouldn't be held hostage due to Air India's extremely poor decision making.  Here's an Op-Ed from the New York Times regarding the Air India situation:

NYT:  Air India’s Boeing Showdown Could Be a Mistake

In other news, I got wind of the 787s that are in the EMC at Everett.  They are:

Bay C, ZA262, LN49, Ethiopian
Bay B, ZA382, LN43  China Southern
Bay A, ZA380, LN34, China Southern
Bay D, ZA287, LN52, United
Bay AW, ZA178, LN27, JAL

Quite interesting that ZA100, LN 7 is not there anymore.  I don't know where it is hiding but it was at EMC for a good long while.  I have to wonder if it's close to being delivered? Well we all know that there weren't any 787 deliveries in May but it could be setting up for a big June for the 787 program.  There should be 4 787s for ANA and 1 for Qatar that would be delivered this month.  If Boeing and Air India come to an agreement then that is another 3.  I also expect that the first 787 to go from assembly line to flightline would be pulled out in a couple weeks.  ZA135 (LN66) could sneak in under the wire to be delivered to ANA in June though the chances are remote but it would certainly be delivered by end of July.