Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Flightblogger: More video and pics from yesterday's 787 taxi tests
More video and photos of the taxi test.
Also check out Randy Tinseth's blog where there are more photos and a great video. You tell how quiet the 787 is as it's doing the RTO going past the camera!!
Right Down The Line
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Editorial: 7/7/09: A good day for the 787
This last delay seemed more insulting, the cherry on the top of all the other delays (that's optimistic being after the cherry you can't add another layer) since it came so close to first flight and only a week after Scott Carson pronounced his confidence that Z001 would fly by June 20, 2009. It was like Boeing was the gang that couldn't shoot straight. However the public perception, people have to understand that designing, building and testing airplanes, especially one with as much new cutting edge technology that the 787 has, is no easy feat.
Yesterday was a good day for the 787 program coming two years after rollout. It was a good day for two reasons:
1) The 787 finally moved on its own power in a series of low speed taxi tests which included low speed RTO (rejected takeoff) tests. These tests continued into Tuesday evening around 10 PM. These taxi tests followed the successful conclusion of final gauntlet testing which concluded on the evening of July 2nd before the 4th of July weekend. You can read Boeing's discussion of the final gauntlet testing here.
2) By far the biggest news and, in my opinion, the best news came from Charleston, SC when Boeing and Vought announced the sale of Vought's 787 work share and assets to Boeing. This makes Boeing more responsible for the fabrication and integration of 787 assemblies compared to what they originally envisioned in 2003 when they launched the 787 program. A lot of the 787 program is experimental and new. This not only includes the technology but the production system that Boeing had decided upon. Now this is where risk management comes in. Boeing's purchase of Vought's 787 unit and their purchase of Vought's share of Global Aeronautica is an exercise in risk management. They recognize the weakest link in their supply chain and in the end effected the necessary actions by which they could more directly control the situation. To be clear, Vought had made great improvements at the facility in Charleston as demonstrated by improved build quality and greater completion (less traveled work) of the 787 rear fuselage being sent to Everett. However, where the risk lay was in Vought's precarious financial situation and doubts about them being able to effectively and efficiently ramp up production. Vought had its doubts, Boeing had it doubts and the result was today's announcement.
Today's action by Boeing demonstrates that Boeing will not let this program fail. The projected costs of purchasing Vought's 787 site is estimated to be about $1 billion ($580 million paid to them directly plus the release of Vought from repaying advances that Boeing had given Vought for its 787 work). Clearly this kind of cash outlay represents Boeing determination to make the 787 program the cornerstone of the company for the foreseeable future. They cannot let this program fail. Now some will point to the assumption of Vought's 787 operations as proof positive that the 787 production model of outsourcing and systems integration is drastically flawed. Boeing purchase of Vought's share of Global Aeronautica is another example of Boeing proactive risk management.
But then how can they explain that other suppliers are doing well within this new production framework? MHI, FHI and KHI continue to build and deliver their work packages and are reducing traveled work. Spirit has been the brightest spot amongst the supplier partners with no more traveled work in the forward fuselage sections that are sent to Everett. And Alenia which had some quality problems very early on is performing very well. This indicates that, after the teething problems and the learning curve ramp up, Boeing's supplier partners are doing well and is vindicating the production model for the 787. Boeing did fail initially in overestimating the capabilities of the supplier base to quickly design test and build the composite structures and other breakthrough technologies for this aircraft and this is what put them in the hole. They had redeploy assets to get the supply base back in line thus from a risk management perspective the reacted accordingly and I believe they will continue to do so. I don’t think they’ll bring in more of the manufacturing work in house save for Global Aeronautica if they don’t show substantial progress ahead of the production ramp up.
Lastly, there continues to be speculation if this move will lead to the 2nd production line (it’s a matter of when not if) being located anywhere but Everett. (Scott Hamilton wrote a piece yesterday regarding the 2nd line). There is a lot of compelling arguments for locating the 2nd line Charleston which has been wrote about ad nauseum and thus I won't repeat it here but I do beleive that Boeing will decide later this year to locate the 2nd line in Charleston for the those reasons. Once the 2nd line is established and producing 787s, Boeing 787 backlog would be eased considerably, though that will all depend on the supplier's ability to produce enough throughput to supply both lines at the same time. If successful, it all started with Boeing taking control of the situation in Charleston with Vought.
787 finally moves on its own power
Video from KOMO News in Seattle:
BREAKING: Flightblogger just tweeted that ZA001 also performed high speed taxi tests today and RTO test without the nose wheel leaving ground. This is unexpected.
I just got confirmation that ZA001 has started taxi tests and is now driving around Paine Airport on its own power.
Flightblogger also has pics on his blog which also confirms that start of taxi tests. When these tests are complete, ZA001 will have to wait until the side of body join fix is designed and manufactured before it can go on to high speed taxi tests and RTO (Rejected Take Off) tests and then first flight. Still no word on that front.
Flightblogger: First 787 Taxi Pics
Boeing: Boeing Announces Agreement to Acquire Vought Operations in South Carolina
Boeing Announces Agreement to Acquire Vought Operations in South
Carolina
-- Accelerates productivity and efficiency within 787 supply chain
--Bolsters Boeing capability to develop and produce large composite structures
-- Vought continues relationship with Boeing on range of programs
SEATTLE, July 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) announced today that it has agreed to acquire the business and operations conducted by Vought Aircraft Industries at its South Carolina facility, where Vought builds a key structure for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner airplane.
The Vought facility, located in North Charleston, performs fabrication and assembly of structures and systems installation of 787 aft fuselage sections, which are made primarily of composite materials. After the transaction, Vought will continue its work on many Boeing programs, including other components of the 787, as well as structures and components on the 737, 747, 767, 777, C-17 and V-22 through operations located elsewhere.
"Integrating this facility and its talented employees into Boeing will strengthen the 787 program by enabling us to accelerate productivity and efficiency improvements as we move toward production ramp-up," said Scott Carson, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "In addition, it will bolster our capability to develop and produce large composite structures that will contribute to the advancement of this critical technology."
"We take great pride knowing that we have been able to satisfy the technological and physical demands of the 787 program alongside much larger companies," said Elmer Doty, president and CEO of Vought Aircraft Industries. "However, the financial demands of this program are clearly growing beyond what a company our size can support. We are pleased that we will continue our 787 involvement at a component manufacturing level, as well as provide ongoing technical capabilities that have helped make Charleston a world-class composite facility."Through the agreement, Boeing will acquire the North Charleston facility, its assets and inventory and will assume operation of the site, and the parties will resolve all matters related to Vought's prior work on the 787 program. The cash consideration to be paid to Vought at closing is approximately $580 million. In addition, Boeing will release Vought from its obligations to repay amounts previously advanced by Boeing. Separately, Boeing entered into new agreements with Vought for work packages on the 737, 777 and 787.
This transaction is anticipated to close in the third quarter following satisfaction of customary closing conditions, including consent from Vought's lenders.
Once acquired, the North Charleston facility will be managed by the 787 program. "We look forward to welcoming the South Carolina team to Boeing and continuing our relationship with Vought to bring the most value to the 787 and our other programs," said Carson.
Forward-Looking Information Is Subject to Risk and Uncertainty
Certain statements in this report may be "forward-looking" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as "expects," "intends," "plans," "projects," "believes," "estimates," "targets," and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions about future events that may not prove to be accurate. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in these forward-looking statements. As a result, these statements speak to events only as of the date they are made and neither Boeing nor Vought undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by federal securities laws. Specific factors that could cause Boeing's and/or Vought's actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those set forth below and other important factors disclosed previously and from time to time in each company's respective filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission: the failure of conditions precedent to the closing of the transaction or the failure of the transaction to close for any other reason; the failure of the parties to experience the expected benefits of the transaction; the effect of economic conditions in the United States and globally; the impact on accounts receivable, customer financing portfolios and allowance for losses of customer defaults and changes in customer credit ratings, credit default rates and collateral values; the impact on revenues and operating results of changes to indices included in indexed price escalation clauses included in contracts with commercial airplane and defense customers; the successful execution of Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Integrated Defense Systems backlog; the effects of customers cancelling, modifying and/or rescheduling contractual orders; the timing and effects of any decisions to increase or decrease the rate of commercial airplane production; the timing and effects of decisions to complete or launch a Commercial Airplanes program at Boeing; Boeing's ability to successfully develop and timely produce the 787 and 747-8 aircraft; the ability of suppliers and, as applicable, subcontractors to successfully and timely perform their obligations; the effect of political and legal processes; changing defense priorities; and associated budget reductions by U.S. and international government customers affecting defense programs; relationship with union-represented workforce and the negotiation of collective bargaining agreements; the continuation of long-term trends in passenger and cargo traffic and revenue yields in the airline industry; the impact of volatile fuel prices and the airline industry's response; the effect of declines in aircraft valuation; the impact of airline bankruptcies; the extent to which Boeing and/or Vought are called upon to fund outstanding financing commitments or satisfy other financing requests, and the ability to satisfy those requirements; the continuation of historical costs for fleet support services; the receipt of estimated award and incentive fees on U.S. government contracts; the future demand for commercial satellites and projections of future order flow; the potential for technical or quality issues on development programs, including the Airborne Early Warning and Control program, International KC-767 Tanker, other fixed-price development programs, or commercial satellite programs, to affect schedule and cost estimates, or cause Boeing and/or Vought to incur a material charge or experience a termination for default; the outcome of any litigation and/or government investigation in which either company is a party, and other contingencies; returns on pension fund assets, impacts of future interes t rate changes on pension obligations and rising healthcare costs; ability to access external capital resources to fund operations; the amounts and effects of underinsured operations, including satellite launches; and the scope, nature or impact of acquisition or disposition activity and investment in any joint ventures/strategic alliances, including Boeing's Sea Launch and United Launch Alliance, and indemnifications and guarantees related thereto.Contact:
Jim Proulx, Boeing Commercial Airplanes Communications, +1 206-850-2102
Russ Young, Boeing Commercial Airplanes Communications, +1 425-246-6661
Lisa Quirindongo, Vought Communications, +1 203-430-3550
Lynne Warne, Vought Communications, +1 615-974-6003
More information:
http://www.boeing.com/
http://www.voughtaircraft.com/
SOURCE: Boeing
Web site: http://www.boeing.com/http://www.voughtaircraft.com/
787 Update - July 7, 2009
1) ZA001 finished final gauntlet testing. Boeing wrapped that up on the evening of July 2nd.
2) Boeing will perform low speed taxi tests and that may occur as early as today though Flightblogger said that it may have occurred last night. Nevertheless, low speed taxi tests are right around the corner. The high speed taxi and RTO won't occur until after the side of body fix is installed onto ZA001. After the low speed taxi tests Boeing will continue ground tests on the 787 fleet to mature the systems so they just won't be closed up and doing nothing while they implement the fix.
3) Flightblogger said that a formal Boeing-Vought announcement on the Boeing purchase of Vought's 787 operations could come as early as this morning.
4) flightblogger found out the registration forthe next two 787s: ZA003 will be registered as N787BX and ZA004 will be registered as N7874
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Boeing: Final Gauntlet Testing started on ZA001
Matt Cawby: Dreamliner 2 starts its engines
ZA002 initial engine runs
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Flightblogger: Boeing to buy Vought's 787 Operations
This deal will bring Boeing back into a much more involved role as manufacturer of the 787 then their initial plans when the program was launched in 2003.
With this Boeing would not be directly responsible for the manufacture and integration of the complete rear fuselage section (47/48) as well as the vertical stabilizer (tail). They're also heavily involved in Global Aeronautica, owning a 50% stake in that venture which they also purchased from Vought.
Now if Boeing decides (as I believe they will) to start a 2nd line in Charleston, one issue people are going to bring up is the lack of skilled aeronautical workers in the area. It should be noted that when Boeing started the 787 final assembly line in Everett many of the MT (manufacturing techs) were new hires who did not have direct aerospace manufacturing experience but who had skill sets that would be of use on the final assembly line after undergoing an intensive period of training and testing before being hired to work on the 787 final assembly line. I do think that Boeing will set up a similar education and training facility to train 787 MTs in South Carolina for the 2nd assembly line similar to what they did for the 787 line in Everett.
Boeing buys Vought 787 facility
Monday, June 29, 2009
Aviation Week: Design Issues Starting to Plague 787
Mecham also said that for now Boeing along with Fuji and Mitsubishi may design and interim fix followed by a more permanent fix for the production models which might entail rework of the composite molds used to form the various structures of the aircraft.
I do believe it will be quite sometime before ZA001 is in the air, quite possibly not for another two to three months.
Design Issues Starting To Plague 787
Friday, June 26, 2009
Another Blow: QANTAS Cancels 15 787-9, defers another 15 787-8
Analyst do feel that this may be the start of a cycle of cancellations and deferrals for the 787 which is already in a precarious position with the new delay. Even though QANTAS denies the order adjustment has nothing to do with the newly announced delay, the timing is suspicious.
Flightglobal's Article
UPDATE
Flightblogger posted an analysis of QANTAS' 787 fleet changes where he talks about the competitive factors that lead to QANTAS' change in plans. He does note that QANTAS still holds firm orders for 50 787 with another 50 options.
Flightblogger's QANTAS article
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Boeing Looking More Seriously at 2nd 787 Final Asembly Line
Aviation Week cites sources as saying that the second line announcement can come very soon and that North Charleston, SC has been chosen as the sight of the 2nd final assembly line. North Charleston does have the advantage of being nonunion as well as the locale for current 787 assembly activities done by Global Aeronautica (main fuselage integration) and Vought (rear fuselage fabrication and integration) as well established logistics capabilities and plenty of land to build a final assembly building near the current Vought and GA facilities. Boeing would have to only fly in the forward fuselage from Wichita and the wings from Japan (not counting the structures from Alenia in Italy and the structures from Fuji and Kawasaki in Japan that will go into the GA site as it currently does).
Predictably the Boeing Unions in Everett (SPEEA and IAM 751) are not happy at the prospect and they may have even more reason to worry in my opinion. If Boeing goes ahead with a South Carolina assembly plant, they could add enough space at that plant to possibly shift all 787 final assembly from Everett and there would be nothing that IAM or SPEEA could do about it especially if the new final assembly line is more efficient than the Everett line.
Aviation Week's 787 Second Line Article