787 deliveries continue to exceed guidance. 3rd quarter 2015 787 deliveries stand at 37

Monthly 787 Deliveries by Model

Deliveries of 787 continue to exceed factory output for the third month in a row as Boeing shipped 11 787s to customers versus 10 rollouts from the plants in Everett and North Charleston.  For the 3rd quarter which just ended, Boeing has delivered 37 787s versus rolling out 31 aircraft.  This means the delivery backlog is shrinking which is very good news for Boeing.  The overall program efficiency is 0.91 (10 aircraft completed versus 11 delivered).  Everett's efficiency ratio is 0.67 (6 787s rolled out versus 9 delivered).   North Charleston didn't do as well as they had an efficiency of 2 (4 roll outs versus only 2 deliveries).  Of the 17 787s that are currently complete, 8 were built in Charleston (including the 2 Kenya Airways jets).  That's a large number compared to the monthly output from Charleston.  This output has increased due to the phase out of the Everett surge line which is currently producing only 1 per month.  I don't know the reason for the slow down in the Charleston delivery rate but it could be related to customer readiness to take delivery of the aircraft.  Also one cannot help notice that a few 787s have been flown to Everett and were (or will be) delivered from that facility.

Boeing has delivered 329 to date since program deliveries began 4 years ago.  This number includes 54 787-9 and 275 787-8. 2015 year to date deliveries stand at 101.  Boeing has said that they plan to deliver over 120 787s this year and I believe they can achieve over 130 this year.  Over 60% of the total 787-8 order book has been delivered while over 10% of the total 787-9 order book has been turned over to customers.  What is noticeable is that since June the number of 787-9 delivered has either equal or exceeded the number of 787-8 delivered.  I expect this trend to continue for quite a while since most of the -8s have been delivered, of course this is barring any large -8 orders that Boeing books over the next few years.

Notable 787s that were delivered included ZB412 (LN 345, JA873A) a 787-9 for ANA otherwise known as the "Star Wars jet."  ZB362 (LN 346, G-ZBKA) for British Airways.  This is the carriers first of 22 -9s.  They should have over 16 in the fleet a year from now.  ZA685 (LN 343, B-2763) is the 6th and last 787-8 for Xiamen Airlines. ZA225 (LN 344, VH-VKL) is the last 787-8 for Jetstar.  All future 787 for QANTAS will now be delivered directly to that carrier.

Even though this is preliminary, I expect that Boeing can deliver up to 14 787s but this number includes the 2 Kenya Airways jests which I list as "In Storage."  Some notable deliveries planned for October include the first 787-8 to Oman Air, 2 787-8s to Qatar Airways, 2 787s to Scoot (one -8 and one -9) and two more 787-9s to British Airways.  If Congress can resolve the Ex-Im Bank issue (October 2015 might be the last chance to do this until 2017) then the two Kenya Airways 787-8s can also be delivered.

Lastly, word though an article by Flightglobal, indicates that Emirates won't make a decision on the 787-10 vs. the A350-900 until next year.  So we can now forget about any major Emirates orders coming from the Dubai Airshow next month.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

QANTAS finally commits to 787, Boeing set to deliver 13 787s by end of August

QANTAS 787-9

After years of struggling to return to profitability, Australian carrier, QANTAS, has returned to the black and has started ordering the 787.  Actually QANTAS had the 787-9 on order but cancelled an order for 35 aircraft in 2012 when their financial situation was bleak.  They retained the 787-8 order for Jetstar (14 aircraft) as well as retained the 20 options and 30 purchase rights at the time of the cancellation.  The purcahse rights have no production slots assigned to them whereas the options do.  QANTAS will exercise the options first as the expiration dates come due.

The carrier ordered 8 787-9, 3 of which are conversion of 3 Jetstar 787-8 to 787-9, and exercised 5 options.  The first four are to arrive between July 1, 2017 and June 30, 2018 while the second set of four will arrive between July 1, 2018 and June 30, 2019.  These 8 aircraft will replace 5 747-400.  QANTAS is not reducing overall fleet capacity but the use of the smaller 787-9 will give the airline more flexibility to down-gauge routes that are currently using the 747-400.  Jetstar's 11th 787 is already on the flightline and should be delivered next month.

QANTAS still retains 15 options and 30 rights for any model 787, thus I do see that the 787-10 can very well be in QANTAS' future.  The replacement strategy seems to be to only exercise the rights/options just before they are about to expire thus taking advantage of long term fleet and route planning at QANTAS as they replace the 747s.

ANA 787-9 ZB411 (LN329, JA872A)

In other 787 news, Boeing is looking to deliver 13 total 787s in August (I was predicting 15 earlier but 2 were pushed to early September).  3 aircraft (one each for ANA (787-9), CIT/Aeromexico (787-8), and Air New Zealand (787-9) have had their customer flights and should be delivered in the next week.  Air New Zealand will be receiving ZB001, the first 787-9 produced, after the aircraft had undergone a complete refurbishment at the conclusion of the 787-9 test program.  5 more 787s are awaiting their customer flights including one each for Air Canada (787-9), American Airlines (787-8), Scoot (787-8), United Airlines (787-9) and Vietnam Airlines (787-9).  If all the deliveries are made this month, Boeing would have delivered 13 in August, 89 through the first 8 months of 2015 and 317 since program deliveries began almost 4 years ago.

Lastly, ZB412 (LN345, JA873A) otherwise known as the "Star Wars" jet has been completed.  According to plans, this aircraft should have it's first flight on August 26th and then flown to Everett on August 31st where it will be painted in the special Star Wars scheme.  There is to be a special ceremony at the Future of Flight by ANA (I wonder if any of the cast of the new Star Wars movie will be there) around September 12th/13th.  The airplane will return to Charleston on September 14th to continue delivery preparations which should take place around September 29th.  The aircraft will be pressed into ANA service around October 16th.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 April 2015 Mid Month report

For quite some time most 787 deliveries have been concentrated at the end of the month but thus far in April Boeing has delivered 3 787s and will probably deliver one more at the end of this week.  Having deliveries more spread out during the month would help Boeing reduce cost that comes when deliveries are “bunched up” at the end of month and the need for overtime to prepare these airplanes for delivery.

It’s no secret that Boeing’s first quarter deliver numbers were probably hurt by the Zodiac seat fiasco that delayed delivery of several 787s most notably to American Airlines.  Currently there are 4 787s for AA that appear to be ready for delivery (all four have had their first flights).  One is still stored in Victorville, Ca (contrary to press reports) and 3 others are in Everett with 2 having had their first flights this past weekend.  We should see two more 787-9s delivered by the end of April as well as 9 more 787s handed over to customers in addition to the 3 already delivered but that includes the 4 for American Airlines and 1 for Jetstar which has yet to make its first flight.  The total number of deliveries could be as low as 7 for the month of April if Boeing fails to deliver to AA and Jetstar. 787-8 make up the deliveries thus far and I expect Boeing to deliver 10 787-8 and only 2 787-9s in April.

Production continues at the 10/month pace.  As I reported earlier, Boeing rolled out the 300^th 787 built (a 787-9 for Vietnam Airlines) which is an important milestone (#400 should roll out around February of next year and #500 around Dec. 2016/Jan. 2017). A 787-8 for PrivatAir should start final assembly later on this month.  Boeing will (or has started) final assembly on 4 787-9 and 6 787-8.

During the past year or so I also have highlighted the efficiency of the 787 production system (or lack thereof at times).  During the first quarter, both the Everett and Charleston plants had an efficiency ratio of 1 with Charleston rolling out 9 and delivering 9 airplanes.  Everett rolled out 21 and delivered 21 787s.  Everett had delivered only 4 787 in January but made up the slow delivery rate in February and March. Thus far in April, Boeing has rolled out a total of 5 787s while delivering 3 for an efficiency ratio of 1.67.

One programming note: I will not make this into a paysite (yay) but I will publicly call out those who will use the information that is on my blog and not give proper credit.  I hope that such public shaming will force these people to change their behavior.  Thank you all for the support and encouraging messages.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 Mid month report - January, 2015

Mid way through the 1st month of 2015, Boeing is setting it self up to deliver 10 787s. On the surface that may look like a good number especially when compared to January, 2014. However because several 787s that were supposed to be delivered late last year had been rescheduled to this month, there are expectations the deliveries in January were going to be higher than 10.  Earlier information that was received indicated 12 deliveries in January but now those deliveries were pushed to later in the first quarter.  Boeing needs to deliver a minimum of 11.5 787s per month for 2015 if it is to achieve its internal goal of delivering 138 787s.  As I had said in a previous post, I doubt that Boeing will be able to deliver 138 787s and the final number will most likely be between 125 to 130.

Thus far there are about 5 aircraft that are ready for delivery but there are also 1 more that need to conduct its B-1 flight which is a 787-9 for Virgin Atlantic and a 4 others that have yet to conduct their C-1 flights.  With 12 days left in the month it is possible for Boeing to all these aircraft tested and delivered but it will be cutting it close.  I do expect the first 787 deliveries of 2015 to start this coming week, thus again Boeing is making all its 787 deliveries in the last half of the month.

The customers that will be be receiving their first 787s include American Airlines and Scoot while AerCap (LAN) will be taking its first 787-9.

Line Number	Variable Number	Serial Number	Registration	787 Model	Customer	Operator	Delivery Date
240	ZB127	37112	9V-OJA	787-9	Scoot Pte Ltd	Scoot Pte Ltd	1/23/2015
241	ZA817	40618	N800AN	787-8	American Airlines	American Airlines	1/22/2015
250	ZA248	36291	VT-ANT	787-8	Air India	Air India	1/30/2015
252	ZA198	34853	JA839J	787-8	Japan Airlines	Japan Airlines	1/22/2015
254	ZA616	35263	C-GHQQ	787-8	Air Canada	Air Canada	1/30/2015
256	ZB029	37968	G-VOOH	787-9	Virgin Atlantic Airways	Virgin Atlantic Airways	1/30/2015
257	ZA222	36235	VH-VKI	787-8	QANTAS	Jetstar	1/26/2015
258	ZA846	36111	ET-ASG	787-8	AerCap	Ethiopian Airlines	1/30/2015
259	ZB224	35317	CC-BGA	787-9	AerCap	LAN	1/30/2015
260	ZA323	36426	G-TUIG	787-8	TUI Travel	Thomson	1/29/2015

In terms of production Boeing is well situated to roll out 10 787s (7 from Everett and 3 form North Charleston).  They are also starting final assembly on 10 787s this month with the same number as roll outs from each final assembly locations.

Interestingly, Boeing is looking to deliver 3 787-9 this month as well as roll out 3 and start final assembly of 3 787-9s this month.  I'll keep an eye on this but it does seem that for now, Boeing is going to keep the rate on the 787-9 at 3/month

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Firing Order Updated

The 787 firing order has been updated.  The order for L/N 181 to L/N 200 are now listed and doesn't contain too many surprises.  This firing order should be for aircraft that will enter final assembly through April (end of April).

Here's a quick breakdown:

New operators:

Thai (leased from ILFC)
Arke (formerly Arkefly, through TUI Travel)
Royal Jordanian

Breakdown:
ANA - 1
BBJ - 1
British Airways - 2
Ethiopian - 1
Kenya Airways - 2
ILFC - 2
LAN - 2
QANTAS - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
Royal Jordanian - 1
TUI Travel - 3
United - 2

Only one 787-9 will be going through production and this aircraft is slated for United Airlines (ZB167).

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators