787 Return to Service now in the hands of the FAA

On Friday April 5th Boeing conducted the one and only certification test flight on ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) for their proposed fix to the lithium ion battery issues that have bought worldwide 787 to a halt.  Boeing had already conducted the ground test of the battery containment system on ZA005 (LN 5, N787FT).  In that test the battery was intentionally short circuited to allow a thermal runway to occur thus testing the ability of the new containment system to prevent smoke, flame and electrolytes from escaping thus risking the aircraft and passengers.

The test flight which lasted about 2 hours is the final items that needed by the FAA in order for order for them to certify the battery fix.  In the next few days Boeing will turn over all the remaining data that is needed. The FAA and Boeing will have a continuous dialogue over the next few weeks and the FAA may even require more tests before giving its approval but the general consensus is that the FAA will give its approval to the fix and approve of Boeing's Service Bulletin & amend the emergency Airworthiness Directive it issued in mid January grounding the 787.  Boeing has teams in place to start implementing the fix once the FAA (and other international aviation regulators like Japan's JCAB and Europe's EASA) have approved. 

The fix will take 4 to 5 days to install on each aircraft though I think it's reasonable to assume that multiple aircraft will be worked on at the same time.  Assuming that Boeing has (according to reports in the media) 8 teams ready to implement the fix along with the associated hardware at the ready, it will take Boeing about 6 weeks to return all 50 delivered 787s to service.  If the approval is given by middle of April then it is reasonable to assume that the 50 787s that are grounded can resume regular revenue service by early June depending on the individual airline's readiness to do so.

So how long until deliveries begin? Boeing will have 30+ 787s ready for delivery but waiting for the battery fix to be installed. I don't have any information as to how many of these service ready 787s can be modified each week but I think it is reasonable to assume that Boeing can have up to 3 ready each week to continue the standard pre delivery ground and flight test regimen once the FAA has given its approval. I am also assuming that Boeing will start ground and flight tests from scratch given the new equipment that is being installed would also need to be tested out on each aircraft.  Thus I'm assuming about 5 weeks for all pre-delivery ground and flight tests to be conducted prior to delivery.  This would translate to roughly 6 weeks before Boeing resumes regular 787 deliveries.  This would mean that deliveries can resume as early as the beginning of June.  It still uncertain how many 787s Boeing can deliver this year until deliveries actually re-start and the rate of battery modifications are determined but at the moment they're maintaining their 787 delivery guidance at 60+.  It is still possible to reach that goal but it would mean that Boeing will have to undertake an aggressive rate of production testing on the 30+ 787s that are on the lines at Everett and Charleston.

An added complication are the NTSB hearings scheduled for the second half of April concerning the lithium ion battery technology as well as the FAA's certification of the 787's battery system along with Senate hearings into the FAA approval process for the 787.  While I don't expect any earth shattering news out of any of these three hearings pundits wondered aloud if these hearings will have any bearing on the timing of FAA approval, with some saying that the FAA won't give its approval until after the hearings are done. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood even said that the fix that Boeing has proposed appears to be good.  Whenever the FAA gives its decision, it does appear that Boeing in on the verge of overcoming yet another issue related to the Dreamliner.

 

FAA temporarily ground US-based 787s, foreign based 787s to follow suit

The FAA, this evening, ordered a temporary grounding of US-based 787s due to the continuing Lithium Ion battery issues.  The precipitating event was the leakage of the battery's caustic electrolytes in the forward E/E bay of ZA102 (LN 9, JA804A) during the flight in Japan yesterday.  According to Dominic Gates, in an article posted this evening, battery fluid sprayed out to distance of 12 feet away from the battery.   The electrolytes are flammable and could have easily started a fire in the lower bay.  Some of the spray was vented overboard through an outflow valve. The FAA had issues an emergency airworthiness directive requiring the grounding and inspection of all US-based 787s.  Typically other countries follow the FAA or EASA lead when they issue such directives and it is expected that other aviation regulators in the countries that fly the 787s will also ground the aircraft and follow the FAA's lead on the next actions.  The other countries include Ethiopia, Japan, India, Qatar, Chile and Poland. Japan, Poland, Qatar and Chile has already announced the grounding of the 787s under their authority and I do expect that Chile and India will follow very soon.

Here is the text of the FAA statement:

As a result of an in-flight, Boeing 787 battery incident earlier today in Japan, the FAA will issue an emergency airworthiness directive (AD) to address a potential battery fire risk in the 787 and require operators to temporarily cease operations.  Before further flight, operators of U.S.-registered, Boeing 787 aircraft must demonstrate to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that the batteries are safe.    

The FAA will work with the manufacturer and carriers to develop a corrective action plan to allow the U.S. 787 fleet to resume operations as quickly and safely as possible.

The in-flight Japanese battery incident followed an earlier 787 battery incident that occurred on the ground in Boston on January 7, 2013. The AD is prompted by this second incident involving a lithium ion battery.  The battery failures resulted in release of flammable electrolytes, heat damage, and smoke on two Model 787 airplanes.  The root cause of these failures is currently under investigation.  These conditions, if not corrected, could result in damage to critical systems and structures, and the potential for fire in the electrical compartment.

Last Friday, the FAA announced a comprehensive review of the 787’s critical systems with the possibility of further action pending new data and information.  In addition to the continuing review of the aircraft’s design, manufacture and assembly, the agency also will validate that 787 batteries and the battery system on the aircraft are in compliance with the special condition the agency issued as part of the aircraft’s certification.

United Airlines is currently the only U.S. airline operating the 787, with six airplanes in service. When the FAA issues an airworthiness directive, it also alerts the international aviation community to the action so other civil aviation authorities can take parallel action to cover the fleets operating in their own countries.

Here is the text of Boeing's statement:

Boeing Chairman, President and CEO Jim McNerney issued the following statement today after the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued an emergency airworthiness directive that requires U.S. 787 operators to temporarily cease operations and recommends other regulatory agencies to follow suit:
"The safety of passengers and crew members who fly aboard Boeing airplanes is our highest priority.
"Boeing is committed to supporting the FAA and finding answers as quickly as possible. The company is working around the clock with its customers and the various regulatory and investigative authorities. We will make available the entire resources of The Boeing Company to assist.
"We are confident the 787 is safe and we stand behind its overall integrity. We will be taking every necessary step in the coming days to assure our customers and the traveling public of the 787's safety and to return the airplanes to service.
"Boeing deeply regrets the impact that recent events have had on the operating schedules of our customers and the inconvenience to them and their passengers."

Thus the FAA is requiring the operators to prove to the FAA that the batteries are safe to operate on their flights. I expect that other aviation regulatory agencies will require the same of the 787 operators registered in their own countries.

It is not known how long the 787s will be out of service but as a point of reference, the FAA grounded the DC-10 in 1979 after a horrific crash of an American Airlines DC-10 in Chicago.  Those airplanes were grounded for a month.  The seriousness of this battery issue is not fully understood at this time but it may not last as long as a month. 

The maker of the battery, GS Yuasa of Japan is under a lot of pressure to figure out what is happening with their batteries.  Everything will be examined including the manufacturing of the cells themselves as well as potential flaws in the design.  Solutions may include switching to a different type of battery, perhaps Ni-Cads but I'm not sure if that is feasible.

In terms of production, I don't believe that Boeing will stop production and assembly of the 787 though they will not be able to carry out any test flights until they are cleared to do so by the FAA.  The ramps at Everett and Charleston will fill up if the emergency AD lasts more than a month.  What is not known is how this will affect the planned ramp up of the 787s later this year.

One area that may see an effect is the on going labor negotiations between Boeing management and SPEEA.  Already SPEEA has flowated the idea of extending the already expired contract. According the the proposal from SPEEA's web site, they propose to roll the items to which both sides have agreed to into the existing contract and extending the current contract another four years.  Boeing may be advised to take this offer as they can ill aford a strike at this juncture.  Here's the text from SPEEA's web site:

With the desire to focus all attention on solving the emergent issues with the 787, 
the SPEEA Professional and Technical Negotiation Teams today (Jan. 16) the union representing engineers and technical workers today (Jan. 16) proposed incorporating areas of agreement from ongoing negotiations into existing contracts and extending our Boeing contracts for another four years.

This “best and final” offer by SPEEA, IFPTE Local 2001, was presented as negotiations with Boeing resumed at 1 p.m. with the assistance of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS) at the SeaTac Hilton. 

SPEEA’s unprecedented offer would free Boeing and 23,000 engineers and technical workers from protracted and increasingly contentious negotiations that appear headed for a strike. It also allows the company and our technical workforce to focus on 
reaffirming confidence and proving the 787 
is the reliable and safe product employees know it to be. Completing negotiations also helps Boeing stay focused on supporting customers, engineering the 767 tanker, 737 MAX, increasing 737 and 777 production rates and the other products needed for our national defense.

“These negotiations have been going on for more than a year,” said Tom McCarty, SPEEA president and Professional Team member. “At this point, we should move forward with the items upon which we can agree, and leave the status quo in place for the remaining items.”

In addition to the proposed contract extension, SPEEA requested that Boeing continue to meet under the auspices of FMCS mediation to tackle the difficult issues that have proven so divisive in these negotiations.

“Our hope is that we can work collaboratively to find solutions in a data-rich environment outside of the constraints of the collective bargaining process” said Ryan Rule, Professional Team member. 

In making the proposal, SPEEA agreed to accept Boeing’s funding mechanism for the Ed Wells Partnership training program.  The status quo proposal continues to offset company medical costs through annual deductible increases based on salary growth.  To put to rest the pension issue, a major point of contention, SPEEA proposes to accept the same pension proposal that Boeing negotiated with the International Association of Machinists (IAM District 751). Finally, the contract extension offer is made with the understanding Boeing recognizes same-sex survivor pension benefits pursuant to Washington state law. 

“With our contracts put to rest, we can all roll up our sleeves and work the issues facing the 787 and Boeing,” said Sandy Hastings, Technical Team member. “SPEEA members know this is a great airplane, and we are eager to prove this to our customers, the flying public and the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration).”

SPEEA and Boeing started meeting in April to negotiate new contracts for 15,550 engineers and 7,400 technical workers. In October, engineers rejected Boeing’s initial offer by 95.5 percent. Technical workers rejected the company’s offer by 97 percent.  Existing contracts expired Nov. 25. Since resuming talks Jan. 9 after a month-long FMCS-imposed recess, members increased preparations for a possible strike. A 40-day strike in 2000 by SPEEA stopped deliveries and caused major factory and service bottlenecks at Boeing plants around the country.

The issues facing the 787 are extremely serious but they can be overcome.  The biggest hit will be to the 787s reputation and reliability.  Boeing will need to focus 110% of its talent and resources on fixing these issues and demonstrating that the 787 is a safe aircraft not just to their customers but to the traveling public.  I do hope that the FAA initiated review will get to the bottom of these problems and find solutions to them.  In the meantime, I'll continue to track the production of the 787 but I don't expect to see flights for another few weeks.

787 type certification today, first delivery in 31 days, EIS in 60 days

Boeing will receive the amended type certificate for the Rolls Royce powered 787-8 today which will set off a countdown to the type's first delivery and first revenue flight. There will be a ceremony at Everett marking the occasion with ZA001 to serve as a backdrop to the ceremony (it's currently at the Boeing Delivery Center in Everett) where Randy Babbit, the FAA Administrator will speak along with other guests and ZA002 is looking to do a fly past during the ceremony coming from Boeing Field. Both the FAA and EASA will hand over the certification documents to Boeing today as well as the amended production certificate (APC) from the FAA for the 787 production.

Boeing is continuing flight tests on the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787. They should be starting F&R/ETOPS testing soon though date still has not been made public. 60% of Boeing's 787 order book will be equipped with the GEnx engine thus type certification of this engine/airframe combination is crucial.

Boeing and ANA have said that first delivery ceremony will occur on September 26th (31 days from now) but the contratual delivery will occur on September 25th (this is where all the paperwork is signed and ANA pays for it's airplane) with the aircraft being ferried to Haneda Int'l Airport on September 27th from Everett. 30 days after ANA formally accepts the first 787 the airline will run it's first revenue flight from Haneda to Hong Kong (a charter flight). Starting on November 1st the 787 will be put on regular scheduled service between Haneda and Okyama and Hiroshima.

ANA also plans to commence international 787 service from Haneda going to Beijing in December, 2011 and Frankfurt in January, 2012.

Here's Boeing's announcement on first delivery:

ANA, Boeing Set Date for First 787 Dreamliner Delivery

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) and ANA will celebrate delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner on Sept. 26 in Everett, Wash., after contractual delivery occurs on Sept. 25. Events throughout the day on Sept. 26 will commemorate delivery of this game changing airplane to its launch customer.

"The airplane is ready. ANA is ready. And, Boeing is ready," said Jim Albaugh, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "This airplane begins a new chapter in aviation history."

ANA's airplane will arrive in Tokyo on Sept. 28, following a Sept. 27 departure from Everett, Wash., and will be greeted by ANA employees, media and Japanese partners. Details of events in Everett and Tokyo will be provided in the weeks ahead. Many of the events will be webcast live, allowing people around the world to participate in the celebration.

Shinichiro Ito, president and CEO of ANA Group, said, "As launch customer, we are delighted to be taking delivery of our first 787 Dreamliner. This aircraft will enable us to offer new standards of service and comfort to our passengers and will play an important role in our international expansion strategy as we seek to become Asia's number one airline."

ANA launched the 787 program with a record-setting order of 50 airplanes in April 2004. The airline has played a key role in guiding the design of the Dreamliner.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is an all-new commercial jetliner that brings new efficiencies to airlines and delivers superior comfort to passengers. The airplane features the industry's largest windows, a lower cabin altitude and cleaner air. These features combine to allow passengers to arrive at their destinations more refreshed.

Here's Boeing's press release on receiving FAA and EASA type certification:

Boeing 787 Dreamliner Receives FAA, EASA Certification

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) received certification for the all-new 787 Dreamliner from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) during a ceremony at the company's Everett, Wash., facility.

FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt presented the U.S. Type Certificate, which verifies that the 787 has been tested and found to be in compliance with all federal regulations, to 787 Chief Pilot Mike Carriker and 787 Vice President and Chief Project Engineer Mike Sinnett, both of whom have worked on the program since the day it began.

Babbitt presented the amended Production Certificate 700 to John Cornish, vice president of 787 Final Assembly & Delivery, and Barb O'Dell, vice president of Quality for the 787 program. The Production Certificate adds the 787 to the list of Boeing Commercial Airplane production systems that have been found to be compliant with all federal regulations.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Jim Albaugh said, "Certification is a milestone that validates what we have promised the world since we started talking about this airplane. This airplane embodies the hopes and dreams of everyone fortunate enough to work on it. Their dreams are now coming true."

Patrick Goudou, executive director of EASA, presented Dan Mooney, vice president of 787-8 Development, and Terry Beezhold, former leader of the 787 Airplane Level Integration Team, with the European Type Certificate for the 787.

Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program for Boeing, wrapped up the event addressing the broad team of those who worked on the program.

"This is truly a great airplane. From the advanced materials and innovative technologies to the improved passenger experience and unbeatable economics, the 787 really is a game-changing airplane," Fancher said.

Home Stretch

Boeing Photos

As 787 flight testing continues, Boeing and its customers are starting to prepare for delivery and EIS of the 787 which should take place this summer.

With much of the test points already completed (90+% on the Trent 1000) Boeing is preparing for the final phase of flight tests. ZA004 will have its package “A” Trent 1000 engines switched out in favor of the improved package “B” engines starting on April 20th with the left engine. That process should be completed by April 30th followed by the right engine removal and replacement between May 2nd and May 11th. The aircraft should resume test flights soon after the remove and replace of the Trent 1000 engines though no new flight date has been revealed.

The much anticipated functionality and reliability testing and ETOPs testing will start in June and should take up that month and into the early part of July and wrapping up the 787 flight test program. In the meantime Boeing announced that approval has been given by regulatory agencies (FAA, CAA, EASA, JCAB, and the CAAC) to start 787 flight training by Boeing developed training devices including full flight simulators.

Concurrently, launch customer ANA announced that they are starting flight training for the first group of 787 pilots and should have 80 trained pilots by March 31, 2012. This adds more confidence that the 787 should be delivered within the summer time frame though it all depends on how remaining testing goes as well as the pace of re-work and modifications on the 787s that have been built.

Lastly, two early build 787-8 that had been allocated for Korean Air were allocated to other customers on the heels of Korean Air’s decision to take 787-9s instead of the -8 model. LN 54 is now going to Air India while LN 59 is now going to ANA. Here's Boeing's Statement on the start of global 787 pilot training:

Boeing Ready to Deliver 787 Pilot Training on Global Scale

Network of training devices qualified in five locations, three continents

SEATTLE, April 18, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) has achieved multiple qualifications for its worldwide network of 787 training campuses. The qualifications mean Boeing Flight Services has training devices that are ready to be used with an approved training course in locations around the globe. "The innovations of the 787 Dreamliner don't end with the airplane itself," said Sherry Carbary, vice president, Boeing Flight Services. "Boeing is changing the game through continued innovation in our advanced suite of training technologies. By bringing this cutting-edge training directly to airlines in the regions of the world where they're based and serve their passengers, we're offering our customers the flexibility and efficiency of flight crew training where they need it, when they need it," Carbary said. Full-flight simulators and other flight training devices for commercial pilot training require qualifications from each airline's home country regulatory agency. Boeing is qualifying its network of 787 training devices with multiple regulators in order to allow airlines the maximum options and regional locations for training their crews. "Providing our airline customers with cost effective flexibility is a top priority," said Roei Ganzarski, chief customer officer, Boeing Training & Flight Services. "We've invested in world-class courseware, trained a global team of experienced instructors, and now have certified a worldwide network of simulators, all to provide 787 operators an efficient and effective 787 training solution." Boeing operates 787 training campuses in five locations: Seattle, Singapore, Tokyo, London Gatwick and Shanghai. As part of the qualification process, Boeing demonstrated, with the regulators' concurrence, that the training devices located at the five campuses around the world were similar or identical in the way they operate. The qualifications from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) on behalf of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Japanese Civil Aviation Bureau (JCAB) and the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) will allow Boeing Flight Services to deliver the same quality of training at all locations. Last month the CAAC qualified the Shanghai Boeing training campus for 787 training including the full-flight 787 simulator and the 787 flight training device. With this achievement, Boeing has received more than 20 separate qualifications in five locations on three continents in support of 787 entry into service beginning later this year.

Flying the Wings Off

The head of BCA, Jim Albaugh, said in May 2010 that Boeing would be "flying the wings off those airplanes" meaning the 787. Since then Boeing has had several set backs in trying to accomplish the rapid accumulation of flight test hours. The 787 flight test team was seemingly on its way to piling on the flight test (and ground test) hours during last fall but was abruptly halted with the fire on ZA002 on Nov. 9th.

Since the resumption of flight test Boeing has been aggressively ramping up flight tests especially after the FAA gave its ok to resume certification test flights. For example. in the one week between Jan. 24th and Jan. 31st, the Boeing test flight fleet flew almost 100 flight test hours. On Feb. 1st Boeing had 5 of the test flight airplanes flying, they accumulated about 16 hours in one day of flying. Obviously not all the flight tests will be dedicated to certification activities but Boeing clearly will be flying these airplanes more than 3,100 hours that they originally said that they would need to in order to properly test and certify the 787. Part of the reason for more test flight hours is that Boeing needs to test fly any changes and fixes that they are required to incorporate into the design.

As long as there aren't any mo major hiccups like the fire in November, Boeing should finish most of the non ETOPs flight testing by March. A source has confirmed that the schedule, as it stands today, should see the bulk of ETOPs testing in the period between March and May. The last certification test flights should occur around July though the bulk of the remaining certification flying will be done well before July.

The FAA and EASA will need a couple of months after the completion of flights to churn through the remaining data and issue the certification for the 787 to allow delivery by the end of September.

In the meantime, Boeing will continue to fly the wings off the 787 as it tries to meet the new schedule for certification and delivery.