Boeing launches 787-10; Paris Air Show 2013 - Day 2 Airbus & Boeing Order Summary

Boeing Photo

After more than 5 years of will they or won't they, Boeing finally did...they launched the 787-10 after years of speculation and being at times being put on the back burner while Boeing grappled with getting the 787 program on track during the three plus years of delays.

The announcement was anti-climatic as the Boeing board gave management the authority to Offer (ATO) last year and speculation increased when British Airways exercised 18 787 options earlier this year and Singapore Airlines concluded an agreement to buy the jet last month pending formal launch of the aircraft which took place today.  The formal launch of this aircraft kicks off a 5+ year development cycle which will lead to first flight in 2017 and certification and first delivery in 2018.  It is not known to whom the first delivery will be made.

There were 5 launch customers announced today:

ALC - 30
British Airways - 12 (they exercised 18 options so I assume the other 6 are for either the 787-8, 787-9 or a mixture of both)
GECAS - 10, this is the first time that GECAS is buying the 787 despite parent GE being one of two engine suppliers.
Singapore Airlines - 30
United Airlines - 20 with 10 being a conversion of previously ordered 787-9.


Here's the round up of orders for Boeign and Airbus during the first 2 days of the air show:
Boeing GECAS - 10 x 787-10 (MoU)
Skymark Airlines - unknown number of 737 MAX (MoU)
Qatar Airways - 2 x 777-300ER (7 options) (Firm Order)
United Airlines - 20 x 787-10 (10 conversions from 787-9, 10 new order) (MoU)
British Airways - 12 x 787-10 (MoU)
Singapore Airlines - 30 x 787-10 (Exercise of existing options needed to be confirmed)
ALC - 30 x 787-10, 3 x 787-9 (MoU)
Korean Airlines - 5 x 747-8I, 6 x 777-300ER (MoU)

Totals by model:
747-8I - 5 MoU
777-300ER - 2 firm, 6 MoU, 7 Options
787-9 - 3 MoU
787-10 - 92 MoU (does not count the 10 conversion from 787-9)

Airbus

Doric Leasing - 20 x A380-800 (MoU)
ILFC - 50 x A320 NEO (Firm)
Lufthansa - 70 x A320 NEO (Firm), 30 x A320 CEO (Firm)
Syphax - 3 x A320 NEO, 3 x A320 CEO (MoU)
easyJet - 35 x A320 CEO; 100 x A320 NEO (MoU)

Totals by model:
A320 CEO - 30 Firm, 38 MoU
A320 NEO - 120 Firm, 103 MoU
A380 - 20 MoU

Lastly, there should be at least 2 787s delivered this week: ZA241 (LN 72, VT-ANM) for Air India and ZA273 (LN 87, SP-LRD) for Polish LOT should be delivered this week.  I think it's possible for a couple more deliveries this week but I expect a quite a few deliveries next week to finish up June.


 

787 Production Rate Steadily Increasing

The 787 production rate is steadily increasing as Boeing looks to load a new 787 into the assembly tooling in the two assembly bays at Everett once every 7 days (at least for the next one month).  ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) for Polish LOT is due to load into position 1 in 40-26 on Oct. 11.  One week later on Oct. 18, ZA273 (LN 87, SP-LRD) also for LOT will load in position 1 in 40-24.  Finally on Oct. 25 ZA274 (LN 88, SP-LRE) will load in position 1 in 40-26. This rate (excluding Charleston built 787s) is about 4 per month.  Charleston looks to be running at about 0.66 airplanes every month (2 airplanes every 3 months) though it is expected that they will hit one per month shortly.  Given these rates, Boeing is very close, if not already there, at producing 787s at a rate of 5/month.

The issues facing them is now clearing the backlog both at Everett and Charleston. Between the two delivery centers there are 16 787s that are ready for pre-flight or are into their test flight activities.  Boeing has already delivered 3 787s this month but tentatively have 9 more deliveries scheduled between Oct. 18 and Oct. 26th. It is possible for these 9 aircraft to be delivered but it is all dependent on both factors that are within Boeing's control (technical issues, allocation of resources needed to prepare and test fly the assembled 787s) as well as factor's out of Boeing's control (dealing with mercurial customers such as Air India, Qatar Airways and the country of China).  Several handovers should be a no brainer: Ethiopian Airlines (2), United Airlines (1), ANA (1) and LAN (1).  That is 5 airplanes right there.  The ones that are questionable are Qatar Airways (2), Air India (1) and Hainan Airlines (1), and China Southern (1). With the Chinese carriers, the issue is the certification from CAAC (China's Civil Aviation Authority).  It is unknown what the issues despite FAA and EASA certification.  CAAC has to certify the 787 for use by Chinese carriers.

Lastly, Boeing has pulled out two 787s from 40-26.  ZA271 (LN 78 (SP-LRB) for Polish LOT went to the paint hangar at Everett and ZA432 (LN 79, B-2730) for Hainan Airlines was pulled out to the 40-51 ramp area. Given the extended time that these two airplanes spent in final assembly I expect that there are very few to no assembly tasks remaining on these frames.  Additionally ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) for ANA conducted taxi runs but could not perform its first flight due to weather consideration as Boeing has stringent weather requirements for B-1 flights.

Updated 787 Production - 7/5/2012

The 787 production and disposition list has been updated to reflect the firing order for airplanes 81 to 90.  This lot of aircraft should be in production through mid-October 2012.  There are no new customers on the list but LOT Polish Airlines will receive its 3rd, 4th and 5th 787s from a total order of 8.  All these aircraft should be delivered, assuming no issues with production or the aircraft, by the end of this year.  The airlines that are to get aircraft from this lot of 10 are Hainan (2), ANA, JAL (2), LOT Polish (3), Qatar, and Air India.  Airplane 90 also marks a start of the block point of 787s where Boeing is to get the 787-8 down to the promised contractual weight when the program was launched in 2004.  The airline that will receive the first aircraft in this block point is Air India, surprisingly.  Please note that this firing order can change between know and the time that these airplanes start final assembly perhaps even after they've been rolled out of the final assembly hall.