Showing posts with label Azerbaijan Airlines. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Azerbaijan Airlines. Show all posts

Sunday, November 12, 2017

Emirates Finally Pulls the Trigger: Orders 40 x 787-10 Dreamliners

Emirates Photo




In what many observers are characterizing as "surprising" Emirates Airlines order 40 787-10 Dreamliners to open the 2017 Dubai Air Show.  With this order, Emirates join the other two "ME" majors (Etihad, Qatar Airways) in ordering the 787 but the other major airlines in the region has also ordered the the 787 including: Saudi Arabian Airlines, Turkish Airlines, Royal Jordanian, El Al Airlines, Gulf Airlines, Oman Air, and the Republic of Iraqi (Iraqi Airways) with a possible EgyptAir order announcement coming later in the air show.

The order is for 40 787-10 and 60 options for any model of the 787.  What is not clear is if this is a firm order or not as industry analyst Saj Ahmad (see his article here) has reported that this is not firm while Boeing's press release says nothing about the status of the order and Emirates Tweet (see above) indicates that this is a firm order. 

There is no other way to view this order but as a huge victory for Boeing and a repudiation of Airbus' product strategy after Emirates ordered, then cancelled an order for 70 A350-1000.  Since that cancellation, Emirates has gone on to order 150 larger 777-9s and now the 787-10.  The airlines, at this time, is still negotiating for a possible 25 x A380 order but this order will most likely be viewed as replacement of the early A380s that were delivered instead of being used for expansion.  Emirates has indicated that both the 777-9 and 787s will be used for both replacement and expansion of their fleet and business.

With this potential 100 aircraft order for the 787 and the 150 777 order, it appears that Emirates is banking its future on Boeing products and in buying (potentially) aircraft from the 787-9 to the 777-9 they are covering a wide array of range and capacities that this product line offers.

Boeing wasn't done though and announced an order with Azerbaijan Airlines for 5 more 787-8 and 2 unidentified freighters.  I believe that these 5 787-8s was the unidentified order for 5 787s that Boeing posted last Thursday on their weekly orders.  By Thursday we should know if Emirates' order is firm or not.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Paris Air Show 2017 - Day 2

Boeing had a another great day with orders and conversions for the 737 MAX 10 but a good number of orders for the MAX  8 also were announced.  The big conversion was United conversion of 100 737 MAX 8 to the MAX 10 plus adding a firm order for 4 more 777-300ER.

As far as the 787 order activity, Azerbaijan Airlines committed to 4 more 787-8s.  I believe that this maybe an unidentified order for 4 x 787-8s that Boeing booked earlier this year.  Okay Airways signed an MoU for 5 787-9s.  All told the 787 took in 47 orders announced at Le Bourget.

The big story continues to be Boeing order dominance over Airbus thus far at Paris especially with the 737 bringing in a pretty good haul vs. the A320.  However, Airbus may have a few more orders to announce in the last two days of the show.

Lastly, ZC001 flew back to Boeing Field today to continue certification flight test activities.


Boeing

AerCap - 30 x 787-9 (firm)

ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU)


Avalon - 75 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 50 x 737 MAX 8 (options)

Aviation Capital Group - 20 x 737 MAX 10 (firm)

Azerbaijan Airlines - 4 x 787-8 (firm)

Blue Air - 6 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)


BOC Aviation - 10 x 737 MAX 10 (MoU)

China Aircraft Leasing Group - 35 x 737 MAX 8; 5 x 737 MAX 10 (firm)

CDB Aviation Lease Finance - 42 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 10 x 737 MAX 10 (including 6 conversions from 737 MAX 8 (4 MoU); 8 x 787-9 (MoU)

Ethiopian Airlines - 10 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 2 x 777F (firm)


GECAS - 20 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion of 20 737 MAX 8 orders - firm)

Japan Investment Advisor - 10 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU)

Lion Air - 50 x 737 MAX 10 (MoU)

Monarch - 15 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)


Norwegian - 2 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)

Okay Airways - 7 x 737 MAX 8 (firm); 8 x 737 MAX 10 (firm); 5 x 787-9 (MoU)


Qatar Airways - 20 x 737 MAX 8 (firm) + 40 x 737 MAX 8 options

RyanAir - 10 x 737 MAX 200 (firm)

SpiceJet - 40 x 737 MAX 10 (20 new (MoU), 20 conversions)

Tibet Financial Leasing - 20 x 737 MAX (8/10) (MoU)

TUI Group - 18 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion of 18 737 MAX 8 orders)


United Airlines - 100 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion from 737 MAX 8); 4 x 777-300ER (firm)

Airbus

Air Lease Corp. - 12 x A321neo (firm)

CBD Aviation Lease Finance - 30 x A320neo; 15 x A321neo (conversion)

Delta Air Lines - 10 x A321 (firm)

Ethiopian Airlines - 10 x A350-900 (firm)


GECAS - 100 x A320neo/A321neo (firm)

Viva Air - 15 x A320; 35 x A320neo (MoU)

ATR

Air Senegal - 2 x ATR72-600 (firm)

Tianju - 10 x ATR42-600 (MoU)


Xuzhou Jantong - 3 x ATR42-600 (MoU)

Bombardier

Ethiopian Airlines - 5 x Q400 (MoU)

PAL Express - 7 x Q400 (firm)

SpiceJet - 25 x Q400 (MoU); 25 x A400 options

Embraer


Belavia - 1 x E175 (firm); 1 x E190 (firm)

Fuji Dream Airlines - 3 x E-175 (firm)

J-Air - 1 x E190 (firm)

KLM cityhopper - 2 x E190 (firm)

Unidentified Customer 1 - 20 x E190-E2 (MoU)

Unidentified Customer 2 - 10 x E195-E2 (firm); 10 x E190-E2 options

Thursday, January 1, 2015

787 2014 Year End Report - Boeing finishes 2014 with 114 787 deliveries




Boeing finished 2014 with a typical December delivery rush including handing over 18 787s during December 2014.  This is a new 787 delivery record which surpasses 15 787 that was delivered in June of this year in order to make mid year delivery goals.

Here are the 787 numbers thus far:

228 - the total number of 787 that have been delivered to customers since deliveries began in 2011
114 - the total number of 787s delivered in 2014
35 - the total number of 787s delivered in the 4th quarter
18 - the total number of 787s delivered in December, 2014
118 - the total number of 787s that started final assembly in 2014
120 - the total number of 787s rolled out the 2 787 assembly halls
10 - the total number of 787-9s delivered in 2014
104 - the total number of 787-8s delivered in 2014
1.05 - the efficiency of the 787 production system in 2014 (the number should be below 1 to indicate an efficient production system)
0.97 - the efficiency of the North Charleston final assembly
1.09 - the efficiency of the Everett final assembly (includes both the main Everett and surge lines).

Boeing overall did well on the 787 program in 2014 though it does remain to be seen how they've been able to handle deferred production costs. Boeing did exceed their guidance by 4 aircraft though they were planning to deliver 120 787s in 2014.  Several had to be deferred to 2015 for various reasons including the lack of seats for completed aircraft. The fact that the production efficiency is above 1 indicates that the the production system is still not stable.  The difficulties that with traveled work and the need to re-hire temporary workers in North Charleston highlighted the ongoing production system issues that continue to plague the 787 program.  Even now aircraft that have finished final assembly are still worked on to complete assembly tasks.

Still Boeing was able to flawlessly execute on the 787-9, as well as get the production rate up to 10/month despite issues coming out of the North Charleston campus with traveled work.  Deferred production cost has increased to over $25bn as Boeing stockpiled parts to mitigate shortages and reduce traveled work.

787s were delivered to first time new operators including:

Air Canada
Air New Zealand
Arke
Avianca
Azerbaijan Airlines
Etihad Airways
Kenya Airways
Royal Air Maroc
Royal Jordanian
Thai Airways International
Virgin Atlantic
Xiamen

Plus new BBJ owners

December's delivery count was unusually large due to the delayed delivery of several 787s to Avianca (4) and Azerbaijan Airlines (2).  Earlier this year I was projecting that Boeing would deliver 120 787s.  Several were deferred due to delays with seats as well as knock on effects from previous delays.  Notably American Airlines and Scoot were to receive their first 787s in 2014 are now expected to receive them in 2015.  One early build 787 for Korean Airlines (VIP) was ready for delivery in 2014 but is now taped and sealed at the Everett Modification Center.  The fact that this aircraft is not being worked on and is sealed indicates that there is an unknown issue(s) holding up delivery to Korean Airlines.  This aircraft is to be used as a government VIP aircraft and it is possible the delay can be attributed to the finished interior that is to be installed in the aircraft including classified military gear though this is speculation on my part.

Boeing has set it self up for a 2015 rather well but issues still remain including deferred production cost and continued traveled work.  If they are able to over come these issues then we should see a high number of 787 deliveries in 2015 compared to 2014.

Stay tuned for my 787 2015 look ahead which will be out soon.

787 Full Production Table

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Boeing meets 787 delivery guidance for 2014



With the delivery of the second 787 for Azerbaijan Airlines, Boeing had met their 787 delivery guidance of 110 for 2014.  The aircraft manufacturer isn't done and should be able to deliver 4 more 787s including 2 787-9s.  These aircraft all have had their first customer flights though there may be additional customer flights required and these should deliver starting early next week.

In a related note: Boeing pushed out the last 787 to be built in 2014.  The aircraft is for American Airlines and should deliver around March.

787 Full Production Table

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Seats and Financing - hold ups to 787 deliveries in December

Boeing's aggressive 787 delivery schedule is being threatened by two issues: availability of BFE (buyer furnished equipment) namely the premium seats from Zodiac but more importantly the ability of certain airlines to fund the final payment to Boeing upon delivery.  Most of the aircraft's purchase price is paid upon delivery.  The seat issue has already shifted several deliveries into January.

For some carriers with less than stellar cashflow, obtaining the financing to fund this final payment has been tough.  In particular Avianca and Azerbaijan Airlines have had aircraft that are all set to deliver yet are still sitting on the flightlines at Everett and North Charleston.  The delivery dates have been repeatedly moved to the right and there hasn't been any further test flights nor any need for further test flights unless the delays take much longer at which point Boeing would have to fly a FCF (functional check flight) to make sure that the aircraft and it's systems still all check out.

Avianca has 4 787s on the flightline with 3 ready to be delivered.  Azerbaijan has both 787s that they ordered ready to be delivered as well.  The delays have been driven by the customers and not Boeing yet represents 6 aircraft that could be added to their year end and month end revenue totals.  Boeing is trying to keep the delivery schedule for these 6 airplanes in December and it does appear that they have time especially since the issues doesn't appear to be technical.

Monday, December 15, 2014

787 December Mid Month Report



It's already December 15th and thus far I can confirm that Boeing has delivered 5 787s thus far but I am waiting on confirmation on 3 additional deliveries to Avianca (2) and Azerbaijan Airlines (1) that are scheduled to be completed by the end of today.  With the 5 deliveries in December (thus far), Boeing has delivered 101 787s in 2014 and need 9 more to achieve their guidance of 110 deliveries.  They do have plenty of aircraft that appear to be ready to be handed over to customer as additional customer flights have taken place over the last few days.

the delayed deliveries of many of these aircraft have been attributable to different reasons including:

Delay seat deliveries from seat vendors (i.e. Zodiac) or delays in certifying the seats for installations Avianca, Etihad, American Air).  Bloomberg has an excellent article on the delays attributable to Zodiac

Financing issues (Azerbaijan Airlines).

Despite the trouble with deliveries, Boeing has still being going full tilt on production and my season adjusted calculations show that Boeing will start work on 8 787s in December while rolling out 9 from final assembly.

Lastly, the plane spotters in Abu Dhabi will get a special treat as Etihad's 1st 787-9 ZB077 (LN 229, A6-BLA) will fly to the country today, December 15th for a marketing trip.  It'll be there until the 18th and then fly back to Everett.  This aircraft still has not been delivered and has yet to take a customer flight though I don't know if the flight to Abu Dhabi wold count as a customer flight.  Boeing is still aiming to deliver this aircraft to Etihad on Dec. 31st.

787 Full Production Table

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Boeing falls short on November 787 deliveries, off to a slow start in December




Last month Boeing delivered an anemic number of 787s despite the growing backlog of aircraft at both Everett and North Charleston.  By the end of November, Boeing had delivered 96 787s for 2014 and needs to deliver a further 14 aircraft by the end of December in order to meet their goal of 110 787 deliveries for the year. The delays have pushed aircraft that were to be delivered in November to December yet almost 1/3 of the way through December Boeing has delivered only 1 787. 
According to the latest information (which changes more often than I can keep track), Boeing is looking to deliver 18 more 787s this month in addition to the 1 that has already been delivered to Air New Zealand.  I do believe that this number will eventually be trimmed down to 14 if not fewer.  Several aircraft have not had their B-1 flight as of yet despite having delivery dates later this month.  Several might also be pushed in January due to issues with customer supplied interiors and financing among other issues.  Other sources of delays maybe driven by weather conditions (B-1 flights have weather restrictions placed on them for safety sake) as well as the upcoming Holidays.  Boeing had delivered 15 787s in June of this year so it is entirely possible for them to crank out this number and I do think they can deliver 110 for the year but they do need to pick up the pace.  There are several 787s that were scheduled for delivery in December but those aircraft have already slipped into January, among them the first 787s for American Airlines and Scoot.
Among the candidates that expect deliveries this month are:
Aeromexico - 1
Air India - 1
ANA - 1
Avianca - 4 (787s that were delayed for yet unknown reasons but suspected to be interior furnishings)
Azerbaijan Airlines - 2 (rumored to have financing issues to complete the purchase, any one have any spare nickels and dimes to lend to them?)
Etihad - 1 (rumored to be delivered in January)
Japan Airlines - 2
Korean Air - 1 (terrible teen aircraft LN 11 for VIP transport but still needs to do a B-1)
Royal Air Maroc - 1 (still need to fly a B-1)
Thai - 1
TUI Travel (Arke) - 1
United Airlines - 1 (last 787-8 for UA)
Virgin Atlantic Airways - 1 (787-9, still needs to do a B-1)


A full year end review will be written up soon after the New Year followed by a 2015 Look Ahead.

Friday, August 8, 2014

787 update - August 8, 2014




787 Deliveries in July
Boeing had a so-so delivery month in July with deliveries of only 8 Dreamliners.  They could have done better but I do think they are set up to deliver upwards of 15 787s in August.  July deliveries included ANA's first 787-9 which they are planning to press into service in early august n domestic routes in Japan.  In terms of production efficiency, Boeing delivered 8 aircraft rolled out 11 787s from all assembly lines.  That translates to an efficiency rating of 1.38 (11 rollouts/8 deliveries).  The lower the number the more efficient the program.  The Charleston plant delivered 3 and rolled out 3 for an efficiency of 1 while Everett delivered 5 aircraft and rolled out 8 giving it a an efficiency of 1.6.  Currently it does appear that Charleston is producing more efficiently given this metric but it doesn't take into account unforeseen circumstances that would not be in the control of Boeing or at either plant (i.e. customer difficulties, etc.). Eight days into August and thus far there have been 3 deliveries.  There has also been a noticeable pick up in flight testing tempo.  I do project that in addition to the 3 already delivered in August, Boeing can deliver 12 more of which 10 have flown and 2 more are awaiting their B-1 flights.







787 Production
The production pace at both plants continue as before with several more -9 entering final assembly in Everett.  Boeing is gradually shifting Everett 787 production from 40-24 where the surge line is located to 40-26 which is the main production line to a point where the surge line will shut down in 2016.  This will allow 40-24 to be freed up for 777X production that should start around 2017 after the surge line undergoes re-construction to prepare it for 777X production.  The build rate in 40-26 appears to be about 6 manufacturing days while in 40-24 it appears to be about 7 manufacturing day.  Over the next 18 months I expect the manufacturing days in 40-26 will decrease to about 3 days as Boeing slowly transfer the surge production to the main line.  During August we should seeing a couple of first: the 1st 787-9 for Scoot and the 1 787-8 for American Airlines should start final assembly during the 3rd week of August and both aircraft should deliver around November.
In Charleston the expansion continues as Boeing continues construction in the 88-30 line in order to prepare it to handle 7 airplanes/month by 2019. Work continues on a new paint facility and firefighting station but the expansion will not likely stop there. Currently the build rate is about 7 days at Charleston which will have that team pulling 3 787s out per month and delivering the same number in August.
The one big news for Charleston came out at the end of July.  Boeing announced that they will build the 787-10 exclusively in Charleston. The reason that was given that the fuselage can't fit into the Dreamlifter for transport to Everett.  According to some information that I received that is technically not true.  The fuselage can fit into the Dreamlifter but the FAA has set a limit as to the length of an object that can be carried by the aircraft.  The mid body fuselage for the 787-10 exceed the maximum length allowed by the FAA. For some time this decision was anticipated to go to Charleston and frankly was not a surprise. Neither was it a surprise that Charleston will taken on the additional rate increase that Boeing has planned for 2016 and around 2018-2019 to take the rate up to 14 aircraft per month.  Boeing has announced that they will build the -10 in Charleston but it remains to be seen if they will conduct certification flight testing in Charleston or if the 787-10 will conduct all it's testing out of Boeing Field where Boeing Flight Test team is headquartered.  It is conceivable that they can set up the facilities necessary to conduct certification tests in Charleston but I doubt that Boeing would take the expense to do that just for one derivative.  Most likely the test flight fleet will be flown to Boeing Field and testing will be based out of Seattle.  The location of the -10 shouldn't change the employment outlook at Charleston but the increase in work as well as the increase of the Boeing foot print in the Charleston area will drive the employment at the Boeing facility.
Here's Boeing's Statement on the 787-10:
Boeing to Assemble 787-10 Dreamliner in South Carolina

EVERETT, Wash., July 30, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] announced today that final assembly of the 787-10, the newest and longest member of the 787 Dreamliner family of airplanes, will take place exclusively in North Charleston, S.C. 
Boeing will continue to assemble both 787-8s and 787-9s in Everett, Wash., and North Charleston. Design of the 787-10 is underway in Everett, with final assembly of the first 787-10 scheduled to begin in South Carolina in 2017. 
"We looked at all our options and found the most efficient and effective solution is to build the 787-10 at Boeing South Carolina," said Larry Loftis, vice president and general manager, 787 program, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "This will allow us to balance 787 production across the North Charleston and Everett sites as we increase production rates. We're happy with our growth and success in South Carolina, and the continued success at both sites gives us confidence in our plan going forward." 
The 787-10 will be 18 feet (5.5 meters) longer than the 787-9. With 10 feet (3 meters) of that increase in the midbody section, the 787-10 midbody is too long to be transported efficiently from North Charleston, where systems integration work is performed, to the Everett facility for final assembly. In addition, introducing the 787-10 in North Charleston takes advantage of that facility's capacity while allowing the Everett facility to continue improving productivity as it focuses on the 787-8 and 787-9. 
The 787 production system includes three production lines: two in Everett (including a temporary surge line) and one in South Carolina. The integrated production system currently operates at a production rate of 10 airplanes per month. As announced last year, the 787 production rate will increase to 12 airplanes per month in 2016 and 14 per month by the end of the decade.  
The Everett facility will continue to assemble seven airplanes per month, while Boeing South Carolina final assembly will gradually increase from three 787s per month today to five per month in 2016 and seven per month by the end of the decade.  
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner family of airplanes offers airlines unmatched fuel efficiencies and environmental performance, while providing a new level of comfort for passengers through the thoughtful application of new technologies. To date, the 787 family has won more than 1,000 orders and more than 165 airplanes have been delivered to 21 customers worldwide.  
The 787-10 will leverage 787 technology to provide more passenger and cargo capacity along with unparalleled seat-mile economics in the medium twin-aisle market. Since its launch in June 2013, the 787-10 has won 132 orders from six global customers.

A couple other notes of interest.  Boeing has stored a 787 that is supposed to be delivered to Azerbaijan Airlines from their order of 2 aircraft.  Rumor has it that the airline now wants to cancel the order though it is just rumor and the airline can also be delaying delivery.  It is unknown if this aircraft has an interior installed already but 2nd aircraft is scheduled to be assembled in Charleston around September for delivery in December.  This situation seems similar to the one Airbus faced with Skymark Airlines when they cancelled their A380 order after two aircraft had already been built.  For now this aircraft is in storage until there is a resolution to the situation with the customer and they will be building the 2nd aircraft as the parts are already in the supply chain. If they do agree to the cancellation then I don't think Boeing will have a problem placing these aircraft with another customer though it may take a few months depending on the interior.

Lastly, the assembly of the 787-9 is starting to hit it stride though the airplanes produced are still going through change incorporation at the Everett Modification Center.  This will continue because when the aircraft was certified there were part manufactured by Boeing or suppliers that had to be bought up to the FAA certification standards.  Many of these parts were deep within the supply chain. when the FAA issued the amended type certificate thus these parts need to be bought up to standard before the FAA certifies each aircraft as being in compliance.  This is the reason why Boeing is deliberately keeping the 787-9 assembly rate slow until the changes are reflected throughout the supply chain.  I believe that Boeing will start assembling aircraft that will not need change incorporation around the time that Charleston starts building it's first 787-9 in November for united Airlines.

787 Full Production Table

Thursday, April 17, 2014

2014 787 delivery prediction and production update

Thus far though the 1st quarter of 2014 Boeing seems to be on track to deliver between 100 and 110 787s.  Aircraft are still entering final assembly at a rate of about 10 to 11 per month which is good but the backlog of completed 787s around Everett has been growing.  That said, last month Boeing delivered 10 787s and they will have to average that rate for the last 3 quarters of this year.

So given the available information that is out there, I put together my best estimate of who will get a 787 this year and how many.  Some of these will be 787-9 deliveries to ANA, Air New Zealand, Scoot, Virgin and possibly American Airlines.  Additionally, Boeing will be looking to complete all contractual firm deliveries to certain customers which includes China Southern (2), Azerbaijan airlines (2), and Ethiopian (5) while British Airways will have their full complement of 8 787-8.  They still have 22 787-9 and 12 787-10 on order.  This table will be updated as warranted so you may want to bookmark it.

All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries




The production of 787s continue as the final assembly lines are humming away more or less).  We are seeing aircraft load into the final assembly positions at a rate of 9 to 11 aircraft per month between both lines. While it is too early to tell, the delivery rate for April may look to be around 10 which is what Boeing needs to average over the next nine months to meet its guidance.  There are 4 787s that appear to be ready to be delivered now that they have had their first customer test flights.  There are 5 more that need to have their customer acceptance flights but with 13 days left in the month this can be done easily.  Boeing has been flying a bit more so it seems that the y are starting to over come the traveled work and wing issues that have hung over the program for the last few months.  One surprise is the seemingly lack of any progress to get the 3 787s for Air Canada ready for delivery.  Two are on the flightline at Everett and a third is at the EMC.  I'm not sure but they may be looking for a triple delivery of 787s but as of today not one AC 787 has even performed a first flight despite being painted and ready to fly.  Boeing will need to conduct a few more B-1 flights in order to prepare the aircraft slated to deliver in May.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators