Tuesday, July 10, 2012

787 delivery insight from CAPA

Center of Aviation has released it 787 delivery expectations for several carriers, including Air India.

To summarize, CAPA says that they do expect Air India to take delivery of the 3 787s that are parked at Charleston sometime this month.  We're still waiting word from the Government of India if they have approved the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing. I expect that the only other airline to take 787s this month will be ANA which has several that are ready to be delivered this month and next month.  Air India is expecting 4 more planes by the end of the year.

CAPA is expecting that Qatar and Ethiopian will receive their first 787s in August and thus far that looks to be the case as ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) took its first flight yesterday but still has to be painted. It should receive three more before the end of the year.  Qatar's first 787 (ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) is finishing up its Farnborough tour tomorrow and returning to Everett that evening.  It will undergo further outfitting at Everett.  Qatar should receive 4 more planes by the end of the year.

China Southern will take its first 787 in August as well and will have a special scheme on it. IT should receive 2 more by the end of the year.  The three airplanes are still undergoing change incorporation with two of them inside the EMC.

United released images of the special livery scheme that will be painted on their 787s.  They're expecting their first plane in September reports are between September 15th and September 30).  It will receive one more in October, 2 in November and one more in December for a total of 5 by the end of the year.

Interestingly, the CAPA report says that LAN will get its first 787 in October.  Currently the first one is in the paint hangar, presumably being painted.  I don't know if this is true or if Boeing is going to hang on to the airplane until October.  It does look like it is ready for delivery though and LAN should take 2 this year and three next year.  There is one more currently in final assembly and one more should enter 40-26 by middle of next month.  I do think that Boeing could deliver one each month from August to October for a total of three. There are two more that are being stored on the flightline at Everett.

Lastly LOT Polish Airlines is slated to receive one 787 in November but there is one that is in change incorporation right now with four more slated to start final assembly between the end of July and middle of October.  Surely several of these airplanes should be ready before November?

Interesting we should look at the totals that are expected to be delivered for the aforementioned carriers:

Air India - 7
China Southern - 3
Ethiopian - 4
Qatar - 5
LAN - 2
LOT Polish - 1
United - 5

This adds to 27.  Add the 11 delivered so far and you're at 38.  I expect that JAL should get at least 4 more and ANA should get 6 more before the end of the year.  That is 48 total deliveries.  My target for Boeing is 50.  Clearly with Air India expecting to take delivery starting this month we can see a big 2nd half from the 787 in terms of deliveries of the airplane to customers.

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