JAL to receive first 787 this weekend, possibly two more next month

UPDATE: I have just got confirmation that both JA822J and JA825J will be formally delivered to Japan Airlines on Sunday, March 25. I still don't know if fly away will occur for both the next day or not and I'm still not sure if Boeing is delivering JA806A on the same day.

Japan Airlines is preparing to take ownership of its first and possibly second 787 this weekend. I'm still trying to find out but ZA177 (JA822J, L/N 23) and ZA179 (JA825J, L/N 33) are supposed to be delivered this month with at least one to be delivered this Sunday (March 25) and possibly both being delivered on the same day. Fly away is scheduled for Monday March 26th at 4PM local time. It does seem certain that both ZA177 and ZA179 will be delivered this month.

According to sources, JA806A (ZA117, L/N 40) for ANA is scheduled to be delivered on March 25th as well. It would be an unusual delivery day for Boeing with the company delivering 787s to two customers that are competitors. This is not yet final though and I am trying to confirm. This airplane should also be delivered in March nonetheless.

For April, Boeing is planning to deliver 3 more 787s also all to ANA and JAL. ANA is tentatively scheduled to receive ZA105 (JA808A, L/N 42) around April 17th. Boeing has pulled out two more 787s to the Everett flightline, JA826J (ZA180, L/N 37) and JA827J (ZA181, L/N 38). Both are tentatively scheduled to be delivered to Japan Airlines but the date is uncertain. Again all this is tentative.

One observation which is unsurprising is that most of these airplanes are late build 787s (L/N 33 and higher). Boeing is expecting to work on the early builds and deliver them from now until early 2014. Boeing's first delivery to Air India is also a late build airplane, VT-ANH (ZA236, L/N 35). This airplane was flown to San Antonio for unknown reason though I suspect it is to probably do some last minute work. This airplane should deliver in May. Going forward into the summer we should start seeing deliveries made to Qatar in addition ot AI, JAL and ANA. United will come later in the fall as will LAN, Ethiopian and China Southern.

Update to March 2012 787 deliveries

UPDATE: Boeing will be sending one of the 787 built for Air India to an Airshow in Hyderabad which is to take place next month. It will have a full interior as ordered by Air India but it won't be delivered as the Government of India is still debating, apparently, whether to accept the 787 into Air India. As such these aircraft, already built are in limbo due to the financial situation at Air India as well as AI's demands for $1bn in delay compensation. Again it seems that Air India is trying to get Boeing to pay for its own gross mismanagement of the air line. The 787 order is being held hostage due to this situation. ZA236 is goingto be flown to Boeing Field, ostensibly to prepare it for the show but also to help free up space at Everett. I can see Boeing flying more service ready 787s there in order to free up space at Everett.

I just got some updated delivery dates for 787 deliveries this month.

ZA117 (LN 40, JA806A) on March 21 for ANA
ZA177 (LN 23, JA822J) on March 29 for JAL
ZA179 (LN 33, JA825J) on March 29 for JAL

The two JAL deliveries moved up 2 days while the ANA delivery slide by 5 days. Again this information is preliminary and may change as conditions change at Boeing. Again no word on delivery to Air India of ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH). Special thanks to Snooze Control. I would also like to ask Snooze Control to send me an email to ureshs at aol com

Good news for the 787

The last week or so has provided some welcomed good news for the 787s. First was Boeing's announcement that they had increased the production rate to 3.5 aircraft per month. This was sooner than planned as Boeing had expected that the rate would be increased later this sprig. Boeing is still planning to be at 5/month by the end of this year though if the supply chain continues to show this sort of improvement then it may be sooner. This is a very, very good sign for the program.

The second bit of good news came out today when Boeing announced that they had completed the certification test program for the 787 with the end of the certification program for the GEnx-1B powered version of the Dreamliner. ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) had completed the final bit of F&R and ETOPs testing late last month and flew back to Everett. Boeing had also completed all the final ground tests that they needs to perform. I anticipate that Boeing should receive final type certification for the GEnx powered 787 in the next 1 to 2 weeks. This should still give the company time to deliver the first GE powered Dreamliner to Japan Airlines by March 31st. In fact ZA236 which just completed the certification test flights is back out on the flightline at Everett but painted in Air India colors this time indicating that this aircraft might soon be delivered soon.

Currently, information that I received a bout two weeks ago shows that Boeing has planned to deliver three 787s this month. They are:

ZA117 (LN 40, JA806A) on March 16 for ANA
ZA177 (LN 23, JA822J) on March 31 for JAL
ZA179 (LN 33, JA825J) on March 31 for JAL

In addition Boeing is not planning any B1 flights for any 787. The three aforementioned 787s have all had their B1 flights though they have yet to fly any subsequent pre-delivery flights. IT does seem that the shim issue has slowed down the pace of pulling out the prepared 787s to the flightline to begin the pre-delivery process. The other unknown is if ZA236 will be delivered this month. A lot of that will depend on if the airplane is ready and if Boeing and Air India have concluded negotiations on compensation for the 787 delays.

Lastly, now that the build rate has gone up in Everett, Boeing will still need to park those new 787s around Everett. Boeing has started parking 787s on the Kilo 6 (K6) taxiway at Everett. This taxiway is in the southwest part of the airport near the Flying Heritage Museum. The first one to be parked there was ZA288 (LN 53) for United Airlines. Space is becoming a premium at Everett and the pace of 747 and 787 deliveries has slowed. April will be critical as the 787s that are built at the newer rate will be pushed out the door and that means even more 787 on the Everett ramp unless Boeing starts to deliver those that are in re-work during April. As added pressure, Boeing is also upping the 747 rate to 2/month later this year.

Getting close to the finish line

UPDATE (10AM) ZA236 is flying back to Everett today. This is a strong indication that F&R/ETOPs testing is complete. The F&R/ETOPs certification testing for the GEnx-1B powered 787s was based out of Boeing Field. With the airplane heading back to Everett the testing appears complete and this airplane can be released in order to prepare it for delivery to Air India.

Boeing's efforts to complete 787 flight testing with the GEnx-1B engines are close to being completed if they aren't finish already. ZA236 has flown just under 153 flight test hours thus far. The aircraft needed to fly about 150 F&R/ETOPs flight hours to finish the certification program for this version of the 787. Boeing has not confirmed that they are finished with the tests as of yet. The true indication that they are complete is when ZA236 flies back to Everett to finish preparations for delivery to Air India.



As far getting other 787s ready for delivery, there are about 10 787 at the Everett Modification Center that are undergoing change incorporation or shim inspection in the rear fuselage as well as one airplane in 40-24. Three of these airplanes were aircraft that are close to being delivered (to Japan Airlines or ANA) including ZA177 (LN23, JA822J), ZA179 (LN33, JA225J) and ZA117 (LN42, JA806A). Once these airplanes are inspected and repaired (if needed) then they will continue they typical preparations for delivery. The list of 787s at EMC is below with the locations highlighted in green. These are the airplanes I anticipate will be the next few that will be delivered. Interestingly enough these include a few of the very early build airplanes, ZA100 (LN 7), ZA534 (LN 10), and ZA501 (LN 12).



Jim Albaugh, speaking in Singapore has said that up to 55 787s would have to be inspected and repaired for the flaw. To put it in proper context, this would include all the airframes from LN 4 to LN 59, the latter of which is currently in position 1 in 40-26 and just starting final assembly. This number also includes the 5 airframes that have already been delivered to ANA but does not include any airplanes sections that have yet to be delivered to Everett for final assembly.

No 787 Deliveries in February

Information just received indicates that while Boeing will be preparing 787s for delivery including the first deliveries of the GEnx-1B powered 787s. However, none of these airplanes will be delivered this month. It looks like these airplanes are being delayed about three and a half weeks.

According to information just received, ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) will be delivered to ANA around March 14th. This aircraft just had its first flight on Feb. 7. Both JA177 (JA822J, L/N 23) and ZA179 (JA825J, L/N 33) are scheduled to be delivered to Japan Airlines around March 24 with ZA179 tentatively scheduled to make its first flight around Feb. 13th (ZA177 had its first flight last year).

Lastly, ZA105 (JA808A, L/N 42) is scheduled to make its first flight around Feb. 29th but no delivery date has been set.

Undoubtedly this schedule shift has been caused by the need to check the aft fuselage for improper shimming installation and to take corrective measures if any are needed. Flightblogger has revealed that the inspections would take about three days but any work to correct any problems would take about two weeks per aircraft. This new schedule would corroborate this time estimate.

Meanwhile, Boeing contiues F&R/ETOPs testing on ZA236. On Wednesday/Thursday this aircraft flew a long 19 hour flight essentially Etch-A-Sketching "787" and the Boeing Corporate logo in the skies over the Western and Mid-Western sections of the country. Thus far this aircraft has flown 48.5 hours. It is expected that this airplane needs to fly about 150 hours to finish the certification program for the GEnx powered 787s.

Boeing starts final 787/GEnx F&R/ETOPs testing?

It looks as if Boeing may have started the final F&R/ETOPS testing for the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787 Dreamliner. ZA236 (L/N 35, VT-ANH), a production standard airplane destined for customer Air India and recently transferred to Boeing Field took off at about 11AM PST from Boeing Field and flew a 6h 40min test flight down and up the Pacific coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California before returning to Boeing Field. It is understood that ZA236 had transferred to Boeing Field was the express purpose of conducting the final F&R/ETOPs tests flights in order to gain final certification for this version of the 787.

It is unknown, at this time, how many hours still need to be flown for the final phases of this test program but when Boeing flew the F&R/ETOPs test for the Rolls Royce powered version of the 787, they ran it to 300 flight test hours with ETOPS testing being done concurrently with the F&R testing on the test flights. Boeing has already run some of hte F&R/ETOPs testing on ZA006, a test airplane which is currently undergoing re-work and refurbishment ot a production standard airplane in San Antonio. The FAA is requiring Boeing to fly some portion of hte F&R/ETOPs testing o na production standard airplane. This testing has been delayed due to technical issues with ZA236, the nature of which is currently unknown.

Assuming that Boeing will still have to fly 300 flight test hours and assuming that half of this testing done by ZA006 is considered complete by the FAA, then Boeing may have to run about 150 flight test hours on ZA236. Assuming about 8 flight test hours per flight that would mean that ZA236 would have to fly 20 days in order to complete final certification flight tests for the GEnx 787. That would leave roughly a week for Boeing to submit the final type certification paperwork to the FAA and to get their final review and approval so that Boeing can begin deliveries to JAL and Air India a the end of this month. This is very tight. Current Boeing plans show have that ZA177 (L/N 23, JA822J) and ZA129 (L/N 33, JA825J) are being prepared for delivery on Feb. 27th with ZA179 scheduled to make its first flight on Feb. 7th. Whether Boeing can hold to this schedule depends on the pace of the F&R/ETOPs testing and any issues that may be revealed as a result of this testing.

Additionally Boeing has an ANA 787, ZA117 (L/N 40, JA806A) tentatively scheduled for delivery around Feb. 19th with a first flight date of Feb. 7th. All these schedules are tentative schedules and may (probably) will change over the course of the next few weeks.

787 Round Up

With Boeing's earnings call schedule for tomorrow, it is expected that there will be a lot of questions surrounding the 787 (schedule, certification, production and deliveries and on and on). Scott Hamilton has a nice update on his blog. One item he highlights is the ramp up to 10/months. He opines that Boeing will have trouble reaching that rate by the end of 2013 and feels that end of 2014 or into 2015 is more realistic.

Indeed it is looking that ramp up is going to be an issue. Boeing just started work on LN 32 (ZA235 for Air India) and LN 33 (ZA179 for JAL) won't be started until January 31st and LN 34 (ZA380, the first 787 for China Southern) will start final assembly on Feb. 14th. That's a 2/month production rate though I do expect that as the years wears on, this rate will increase (to what I don't know). You can read more of Scott Hamilton's post below:

Scott Hamilton: Odds and Ends: Big week for EADS, Boeing

In the same vein, Aviation Week reports Guy Norris and Mike Mecham wrote an extensive article regarding the 787 schedule. The main concerns remain what additional testing does the FAA require especially for ETOPs out of the box certification. The FAA has told Boeing that as it currently stands, the 787 won't get ETOPs certification until Boeing can prove the 787s reliability in light of the fire on ZA002 and the engine problems that Rolls Royce has encountered on the Trent 1000.

Aviation Week: Questions Remain About Boeing 787 Schedule

Boeing is trying to ramp up 787 test flights and currently has posted over 2600 of flight time over 850+ test flights. However, ZA003 and ZA006 have yet to resume test flights. It is unknown why they have not returned to test flights. Later this morning, ZA005 is schedule to make a test flight from Albuquerque, NM to Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. We'll see if this flight actually does occur.