787 August 2018 Mid Month Update

As we approach the end of summer, Boeing seems to have some struggles delivering airplanes.  Last month Boeing delivered 8 787 to customers.  Now it appears that Boeing will deliver only 11 787s in August.  They've delivered 3 787-9 aircraft to KLM, El Al and AerCap (lsd to Ethiopian). The 787 wasn't the only commercial program to post low delivery numbers.  The 737 program saw only 29 deliveries and the 777 didn't deliver a single airplane!  The 737 and 787 were the major cash flow generators for Boeing Commercial Airplanes (plus one lone 747-8F).  Reports have attributed the low delivery numbers to issues with suppliers.

I have been informed by sources that 787 deliveries are slower due to issues with seat suppliers.  It appears that this has affected deliveries to Eva Airways, China Eastern and United Airlines.  There's no further information on other suppliers that could be causing the delivery slowdowns. 787 output continues at the 12/month pace thus crowding the flightlines at Everett and Charleston.

Lastly, Boeing posted only 1 order for the 787 which was the finalization of the Hawaiian Air deal.  Boeing's 787 backlog currently stands at 668 airplanes (89 x 787-8, 414 x 787-9, 165 x 787-10). Boeing has delivered 719 787s to date (354 x 787-8, 359 x 787-9, 6 x 787-10). 787 Spreadsheets

Farnborough 2016 Preview

Expectations are for a subduded order activity at Farnborough from both Boeing and Airbus this year.

With Boeing celebrating its 100th birthday/anniversary this month, I do expect that Boeing will announce customers whose orders have already been booked and are listed as unidentified.

In terms of 787 I believe that Boeing will reveal unidentified Chinese customers for the 787-9 at Farnborough. These customers include Hainan Airlines (30), China Eastern Airlines (15), and Xiamen Airlines (4).

Other potential 787 orders that maybe revealed at Farnborough include Qatar's exercise of 30 787 options. Bloomberg also is reporting that TUI will be ordering more 787 which I suspect will be 10 787-9s. I am hoping for surprise orders from new customers but I suspect that a lot of attention will be on the 737 orders, potential 747-8F order with Volga-Dnepr for 20 aircraft and talks about a 777-10X and middle of the market (MoM) aircraft

We will know more starting tomorrow morning.

787 Spreadsheets

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 3

Day three bought more widebody orders for Boeing especially a nice shot in the arm for the 747-8.  Volga-Dnepr signed an MoU for 20 747-8F that will be partly purchased direct or acquired via lease.  Another shot in the arm came in the form of Ethiopian taking up 6 early build 787-8 airframes which I reported earlier but just confirmed today by the airline and Boeing.  This leaves Boeing with only 4 early build 787-8 left to sell:  LN4, LN5, LN17, & LN19 (the last 3 are GE-powered airplanes).

Airbus booked a couple of major MoU for the A320neo but that was about it.  Tomorrow should be the last day for any deals to be announced.  I'm still hoping that Boeing will announce the customers behind a couple of 787-9 deals that have so far remained unknown.

Boeing

AerCap – 100 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Ethiopian – 6 x 787-8 (Firm)

Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737 MAX (LoI)

Korean Air – 30 x 737 Max 8 (LoI), 20 x 737 Max 8 (Options), 2 x 777-300ER (LoI)

Minsheng Financial Leasing – 30 x 737 Max and NG (MoU)

Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)

Ruili Airlines (through AVIC Leasing) – 30 x 737 Max (LoI)

SMBC Aviation Capital – 10 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Sriwijaya Air – 2x 737-900ER (Firm), 20 x 737-800 (Options)

Unknown Customer – 1 x BBJ 737 Max 9 (Firm)

Volga-Dnepr – 20 x 747-8F (MoU)

Airbus

ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo (Firm)

Eva Air – 4 x A330-300ceo (MoU)

Korean Air – 30 x A321neo (Firm), 20 x A321neo (Options)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)

GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)

Peach Aviation – 3 x A320ceo (Firm)

Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

Synergy – 62 x A320neo (MoU)

Unknown Customer – 60 x A320neo (MoU)

VietJetAir – 6 x A321 (Firm)

ATR

Air Madagascar - 3 x ATR72-600
Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR72-600 (Firm)

BahamasAir – 3 x ATR42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)

Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
Braathens Aviation – 5 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Cebu Pacific Air – 16 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Japan Air Commuter – 8 x ATR42-600 (8 Firm, 15 option)
Unknown Customer - 2 x ATR72-600 (Firm)

Bombardier

WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC

Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)

Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer

Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)

Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)

Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Boeing give 787 delivery guidance for 2015

Boeing released its 2014 financial results and while the company reported record earnings as well as higher 787 deliveries, it also reported higher deferred production cost (the gap of actual cost of production of each aircraft vs. the average cost over the accounting block which at this moment is 1,300 aircraft) had increased by almost $1bn over the 4th quarter to $26.149bn up from $25.189bn.  Year over year increase in deferred production costs was $4.5bn, an increase of almost 21% year over year!  Mush of this increase was due to increasing the inventory of parts as well as maintaining high employment levels within the 787 program.

Boeing’s 787 delivery guidance was reported by CFO Greg Smith as the annual production rate plus 3 to 4 early build aircraft.  This would mean a total delivery guidance of 123-124 787s for 2015.

However, one question that was not asked if this delivery guidance included the 3 787-9s that were used for flight testing and certification purposes. The big question is that do they consider the 3 787-9 that were used for the certification program last year as early build? If so, then are the only "early build" deliveries would be the 787-9s that are earmarked for customers this year?  If not then Boeing can deliver the 120 regular production + 3 787-9 from test flight + 3-4 early deliveries (terrible teens) which would add to 127 deliveries.  2 out of the 3 787-9 test airplanes are at the EMC being bought up to certification standards for delivery to Air New Zealand while the third is parked on a runaway at Everett. 

Boeing expect that the 787 program should become cash positive this year meaning that revenue for each delivered 787 will exceed the cost of production though the program as a whole will still be running at a loss.  Additionally, Boeing expect deferred production cost to moderately increase this year before declining next year when the 787 rate goes to 12 from 10.  Obviously getting a handle on production costs will include renegotiating (read: squeezing) the supply base as well as lowering labor costs within the program.  Greg Smith reported during the earnings call that 787-9 production costs fell 20% from the first delivered aircraft and 30% for the last 175 delivered 787-8 airplanes.

In other news it looks like Air Force One will continue to be a Boeing product.  The Air Force is going to negotiate for the delivery of three 747-8 air frames to replace the current 747-200 that have been in service for over 20 years but are dated.  This will be a non competitive acquisition but mission equipment and furnishing will be competitively sourced. The only question that remains is will they acquire a 747-8I or 747-8F?

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

Boeing continues to fly GEnx engines on 787 and 747

Boeing, after having performed the necessary ultrasound inspections on the GEnx engines on the airplanes they have in pre-flight, flew three GE engined aircraft today (out of 4 airplanes).  This does give some reassurance that deliveries of these airplanes (a least to specific customers) are moving forward.  Again I don't expect Air India to take any more airplanes until at least the NTSB, GE and Boeing discover the root cause of the crack in the Fan Midshaft and implement corrective actions and/or a re-design.  There would be considerable amount time added as the fan midshaft of the these engines will all have to be replaced once the root cause and a solution is found.  Today ZA263 and ZA264 both for Ethiopian flew test flights.  Both these flights were the B-2 flights though ZA264 still has to be painted and will probably be painted in Ft. Worth.

GEnx problems slow down 787 deliveries

Another set back for GE powered 787s and 747-8s as the NTSB is recommmending that operators of the 787 and 747-8 (F and I) conduct ultrasound inspection of the GEnx-1B and GEnx-2B Fan Midshaft as possible corrosion issue may produce cracks that would eventually lead to fractures of this vital part.  In the short term the NTSB is recommending that the FAA issue an emergency airworthiness directive requiring that operators do the ultrasound before the flying the aircraft and then at regular frequent intervals thereafter to catch any possible cracks before they become a problem.

The NTSB has identified one 787 at Everett that has one engine with a cracks in the Fan Midshaft. They along with GE and Boeing are trying to discover the root cause of the cracks and with the failure of a 2nd GEnx engine and discovery of cracks in a third, the investigation has taken on more urgency.  So far it looks like many of the 787s and 747-8s have been inspected and Boeing continues to conduct test flights of both airplanes with the GE engine but this issue already is affecting deliveries. Air India has already said that they will not take anymore 787s until a root cause is discovered.  It is rumored that Qatar Airways may follow suit while other carriers that have ordered the GE engine have yet to make their intentions known.  So far GEnx engines have been delivered to Air India, Ethiopian and JAL.  JAL and Ethipian continue to fly the 787s as is Lufthansa with the 747-8I and thus far there hasn't been any word on these airlines pulling the aircraft from service.

Here's the full text of the NTSB statement:

 

In this letter, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) recommends that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) take urgent action to address safety issues that have been identified in the NTSB’s ongoing investigation of a fan midshaft (FMS) fracture and crack in zero-time General Electric (GE) GEnx-1B engines on Boeing 787 airplanes and a possible FMS fracture on a low-time GEnx-2B engine on a Boeing 747-8F airplane.

On July 28, 2012, a Boeing 787-8 airplane experienced a loss of thrust in the right engine—a General Electric (GE) GEnx-1B turbofan, engine serial number (ESN) 956-121—during a pre-first flight, low-speed taxi test at Charleston International Airport, Charleston, South Carolina. As the airplane was accelerating through 40 knots, the No. 2 engine’s N12 speed rolled back and the pilots retarded the throttles to abort the test. The airplane taxied back to the ramp, where the engines were shut down. A visual inspection of the engine during the NTSB’s investigation revealed the low pressure turbine (LPT) rotor had shifted aft and extensive damage to the LPT blades and vanes. Further examination of the engine revealed the forward end of the FMS was separated at the rear of the threads. The fractured end of the FMS with the retaining nut still in place was removed from the engine and sent to GE, Cincinnati, Ohio, for dimensional inspection and metallurgical examination. The engine was subsequently removed from the airplane and also sent to GE in Cincinnati for disassembly and examination. The engine had not yet been operated in flight, having only been operated during post-production tests at GE and post-installation ground runs at Boeing in Charleston.

As a result of the ongoing investigation into the FMS separation that occurred on ESN 956-121 at Charleston, GE developed an ultrasonic inspection to scan the forward end of the FMS under the threads where the fracture occurred. On August 13, 2012, a GEnx-1B engine, ESN 956-175, installed on a 787-8 airplane that had not yet flown was found to have an indication of a similar crack on the FMS. Like ESN 956-121, this engine had not been operated in flight and had only operated during post-production tests at GE and post-installation ground runs at Boeing in Seattle, Washington. The engine was removed from the airplane and shipped to GE, Durham, North Carolina, for disassembly and further ultrasonic tests that confirmed the crack. The FMS was removed from the engine and shipped to GE in Cincinnati for further inspection and examination.


Examination of the FMS from ESNs 956-121 and 956-175 revealed that they conformed with the engineering drawing’s requirements. Metallurgical examination of the FMS from ESN 956-121 revealed a progressive fracture that had initiated from multiple origins around the outer circumference of the FMS at the root of the rearmost thread. The progressive fracture covered about half of the fracture face.

Although the fracture in the ESN 956-121 FMS was progressive in nature, the examination of the fracture surface in the scanning electron microscope (SEM) did not reveal any striations that would be typical of a fatigue fracture. Rather, the SEM examination revealed a faceted, quasi-cleavage fracture morphology that is typical of environmentally assisted cracking4 of certain high strength steel alloys such as that used on the GEnx FMS. The metallurgical examination of the FMS from ESN 956-175 revealed several progressive cracks that had initiated around the outer circumference at the root of the rearmost thread. The morphology of these fracture surfaces was consistent with what had been observed on the FMS from ESN 956-121. The investigation into the cause of the environmentally assisted cracking that occurred in the ESN 956-121 and -175 FMSs is continuing.

On September 11, 2012, a Boeing 747-8F (operated by Air Bridge Cargo, a Russian certificated air cargo carrier) equipped with GE GEnx-2B turbofan engines experienced a loss of power in the No. 1 engine, ESN 959-228, during the takeoff roll at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, Shanghai, China. The pilots reported that as the airplane was accelerating through 50 knots, the No. 1 engine’s N1 indication dropped. The pilots rejected the takeoff and returned to the ramp, where an inspection of the No. 1 engine’s LPT revealed extensive damage. Further examination of the engine is pending, but photographs of the LPT show damage that is similar to that which was observed on GEnx-1B engine ESN 956-121 at Boeing in Charleston. Although other failure modes could cause an N1 rollback and broken blades, the damage noted on the photographs of ESN 959-228 is consistent with that observed on the engine that failed at Charleston. ESN 959-228 is reported to have accumulated approximately 1,200 hours and 240 cycles since new.  
GEnx-1B engines are used on Boeing 787 airplanes and GEnx-2B engines are used on Boeing 747-8 airplanes. The GEnx-1B FMS is slightly longer than that in the -2B engine. However, the threaded end of the FMS; the manner in which it is clamped with the retaining nut;
and the assembly procedures, material specifications, and operating environment are similar between the two models. Therefore, the FMS in GEnx-2B engines may be susceptible to the same type of failure observed with the GEnX-1B FMS.

Because of the short time to failure and the fact that all of the engines on any single airplane, whether the 787 or the 747-8, have all operated for the same period of time, the NTSB is not only concerned about the potential for further fractures occurring, but also the possibility that multiple engines on the same airplane could experience an FMS failure. Although the FMS fracture that occurred on the 787 at Charleston and the incident that occurred on the 747-8 at Shanghai both happened on the runway and the pilots were able, respectively, to abort the test and the takeoff, the NTSB is concerned about the possibility of an FMS fracture occurring in flight at the limits of an airplane’s extended twin-engine overwater operations, or ETOPS, range and the airplane having to operate with one engine inoperative for up to 5 1/2 hours.

The NTSB notes that, after the FMS fracture at Charleston, GE was very expeditious in assisting 787 operators with inspecting their GEnx-1B engines using the newly developed ultrasonic inspection, which is capable of detecting cracks once they reach 0.050 inch in length. To date, all in-service and spare GEnx-1B engines have been inspected. In addition, all GEnx-2B engines on passenger airplanes and spares have been inspected. The NTSB is aware that about 47 on-wing GEnx-2B engines remain uninspected and is concerned that they continue to operate while potentially susceptible to FMS failure. Because of the immediate threat of multiple engine failures on a single aircraft and the availability of an appropriate inspection procedure, there is an urgent need for the FAA to act immediately. Therefore, the NTSB recommends that the FAA issue an airworthiness directive to require, before further flight, the ultrasonic inspection of the FMS in all GE GEnx-1B and -2B engines that have not yet undergone inspection.

In addition, the nature of the cracking that was noted on the FMS from ESNs 956-121 and 956-175 did not provide a predictable crack propagation rate that a typical fatigue crack would have. The NTSB believes that repetitive inspections are necessary to ensure that, once an initial inspection has been performed, new or sub-detection-level cracks do not propagate and cause additional failures. Therefore, the NTSB recommends that the FAA require operators to accomplish repetitive inspections of the FMS in all (on-wing and spare) GE GEnx-1B and -2B engines at a sufficiently short interval that would permit multiple inspections and the detection of a crack before it could reach critical length and the FMS fractures. 
Therefore, the National Transportation Safety Board makes the following recommendations to the Federal Aviation Administration:

Issue an airworthiness directive to require, before further flight, the ultrasonic inspection of the fan midshaft in all General Electric GEnx-1B and -2B engines that have not yet undergone inspection. (A-12-52) Urgent

Require operators to accomplish repetitive inspectionsmidshaft (FMS) in all (on-wing and spare) General Electric GEnx-1B and -2B engines at a sufficiently short interval that would permit multiple inspections and the detection of a crack before it could reach critical length and the FMS fractures. (A-12-53) Urgent

787 production update - May 3, 2012

787 production is starting to get interesting as there will be another line move tonight at Everett.  Boeing will push out ZA462 (LN62 for Qatar Airways) allowing the four positions to be occupied by airplanes 63, 64, 66 and 67.  The later two are planes that should not have to go through any change incorporation and will go direct from the assembly line to the flight line at Everett.  The main fuselage for airplane 67 should have been delivered last Friday night after Boeing had pushed out the first 787 to be built at Boeing Charleston.  That 787, ZA237 (LN46) is on its way to finishing the 96 assembly tasks that are left before entering gauntlet testing and first flight which is projected to take place between May 18 and May 5th.  Delivery to Air India should take place by June 30th.  Also I got confirmation that ZA239 (LN 60) and ZA240 (LN65) are both for Air India and both are being assembled at Boeing Charleston.

In other production news, I got wind of Thomson Airways deliveries of their first 3 787s.  The first airplane for Thomson will be ZA317 (LN92) which should start assembly late this year for delivery in January 2013.  This will be followed by ZA318 in February 2013 and ZA319 in March 2013.  The first and third airplanes will be based in Manchester while the second airplane will be based out of Gatwick all to support training and EIS of the company's 787.  These airplanes will carry 291 passengers of which 47 will be premium seating in 38 inch pitch seating while there will be 244 in economy in 36 and 33 inch pitch seats.

As far as deliveries this month, I fully expect 1-2 787 for ANA and 2  airplanes for Air India.

LAstly, I came across some interesting analysis with regards to deliveries of the 747-8 and 787s this year.  It is estimated that Boeing will have built, through the end of this year about 50 747-8 airplanes (F and I).  Of those 50, 9 were delivered last year leaving 41 potentially to be delivered this year.  Of those 41, 3 were for Atlas Air Cargo which they have stated that they will not take...that brings the number of deliverable aircraft to 38 for 2012.  However this number includes test airplanes that have yet to under go refurbishment including 2 for Cathay Pacific Airways and the second 747-8F built which is for NCA.  That brings the number down to 35 747-8 aircraft.  If Boeing is projecting between 70 to 85 747s and 787s to be delivered by the end of this year that means that Boeing can be in a position to deliver between 35 and 50 787s.  This is entirely possible as is starting to produce 787s that will go straight from the production line to the flight line and into testing.

Now it's three

A source told me this morning that L/N 42 (ZA105, JA808A) wil not be delivered this month as originally intended. This aircraft is still sitting in front of the EMC going through final preparation for delivery but Boeing will probably have to wait until next month.

This is hardly a surprise given all the work yet to be done to get these airplanes ready for delivery. Boeing will try to deliver 3 more 787s this year for a total of 5. Boeing has already delivered 9 747-8F airplanes and will probably be done for the year for 747 deliveries. The total 747 and 787 deliveries will total 14 of which 1/3 are 787s and 2/3 747 which is what Boeing had projected earlier this quarter. However, they were hoping to deliver 15 - 20 787s nad 747s in total. Unfortunately they will not even reach the lower bound of that number.

There has been no further test flights of any production 787s as of yet.

Boeing to deliver only 2 787s in December

According to sources, Boeing will deliver only two more 787s the rest of this year. The two aircraft are both destined for ANA and are late build 787s. L/N 31 is already out on the Everett flightline has had some ground test done but has yet to run its engines for the first time. Boeing plans to fly this airplane on its B-1 check flight sometime next week and deliver around the 2nd week of December.

The next airplane will be L/N 41 which is currently located in the Everett Modification Center. This is another late build airplane which should fly around early December and be delivered around the 3rd week of December. So far Boeing is not planning any deliveries of the GEnx-1B powered 787 next month. In their last earning release, Boeing said that they expect the number of 787 and 747s to be delivered in 2011 to be between 15 and 20 units with 747s accounting for 2/3 of that. If using the low range of that forecast then Boeing was giving delivery guidance at 5 787s and 10 747s for this year. Their well on their way to 10 747s and perhaps more but they will fall short on 787s deliveries for 2011 that they had given guidance on.

Unfortunately, the view of the Everett ramp seems to confirm this situation. ANA said in late September that they were expecting to take delivery of 5 more 787 by year end and have a total fleet of 7 by Dec. 31st. Currently there is only one airplane with Trent 1000 engines hanging from the wings (L/N 31) with two 787s with GE engines on the ramp. The GEnx-1B certification program is not complete yet so it is doubtful that those planes won't be delivered until sometime in the New Year. Boeing was expecting to deliver 6 by the end of 2011 but it's looking increasingly like it won't even make that number.

So what is the problem? Two things: 1) Too many jobs that need to be fixed, particularly on the early build 787s (L/N 7 to L/N 19). 2) Lack of adequate resources to finish the job in a timely manner. Boeing may have a plan to deal with the jobs that yet to be done on all these airplanes but it is time consuming and there is a need to try and get the airplanes that have the fewest re-work requirements into the hands of customers. It's no wonder that 3 of the 4 airplanes that would have been delivered are late build 787s. It looks like Boeing will be spending a lot of time getting those 12 other 787s ready for customers and the only way to do that is to assign more resources (i.e. workers) to tackle these airplanes and get them out.

On a bit of positive news, some of the suppliers are starting to ramp up production of their work share in order to support Boeing's ramp up of 787 production. Mitsubishi Heavy has added a 2nd autoclave to support increased 787 wing box output. Currently Boeing is at 2.5 airplanes per month and hopes to be at 3.5 by sometime next spring. Also on a brighter note, the backlog of 747 on the Everett ramp also seems to be diminishing as Boeing has delivered 5 of them thus far and has two more in flight tests. It does look like they can deliver 12 to 13 of the 747-8Fs by the end of this year. At least the 747 deliveries frees up more ramp space for the 787s coming out of final assembly.

The story of two press releases

There is a story between the lines of the two press release (actually one) sent out by Cargolux and Boeing. To boil it all down, there is animosity over what happened last month and it reflected in what was said and what wasn't said. Here are the two releases. The first was not a press release but blog posting by Boeing's marketing chief, Randy Tinseth:

Delivery day for Cargolux
I’m happy to announce that we’ve resolved the contractual issues that delayed the first delivery of our new 747-8 Freighter last month. I’m even happier to let you know that Cargolux will take delivery of their first freighter today (October 12) and immediately put it into service with a stop at Sea-Tac Airport for a cargo pickup. On Thursday, Cargolux will take delivery of its second 747-8F.

Even though we had to wait a bit longer than expected, it doesn’t make these deliveries any less sweet. We know Cargolux and every customer after them will love this airplane in every way—from how it flies to how it performs.

I’d like to personally congratulate every employee who had a hand in working on this beautiful new symbol of Boeing. We all look forward to seeing it take to the sky as an official member of the Cargolux fleet.

Here's Cargolux's statement:

Cargolux successfully resolves contractual issuesLuxembourg,

12th October 2011

Cargolux announced today that the delivery of the first two Boeing 747-8
Freighters initially scheduled for 19 and 21 September is proceeding on 12 and
13 October 2011 following the resolution of contractual issues between Boeing,
GE and Cargolux related to the performance of the aircraft and the engines.
In its meeting on 7 October, the Cargolux Board of Directors appreciated
that the negotiation team (Akbar al Baker (Director), Frank Reimen (President
and Chief Executive Officer) and David Arendt (Executive Vice President and
Chief Financial Officer)) and Company management took the appropriate actions to
ensure that the 747-8 entry into service issues be resolved successfully.
Frank Reimen, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cargolux, said: ‘I am
pleased that we have reached agreement on the contractual issues. The 747-8
Freighter will be a driver of profitable growth for Cargolux’.
Launch customer Cargolux has 13 Boeing 747-8 Freighter airplanes on firm order.
As an enhanced variant of the 747-400 cargo aircraft, the new-generation 747-8
Freighter offers a variety of benefits over its predecessor, including
additional payload, less fuel burn and carbon emissions and a considerably lower
noise footprint.

Nowhere in either statement does either company congratulate the other. Randy thanks the employees of Boeing who designed and built the aircraft whereas the Cargolux statement thanks the CEO Frnak Reimen, CFO David Arendt and first and never least, Akbar Al-Baker (U-Turn Al) for leading the negotiations. Funny enough that Cargloux does acknowledge the better fuel burn over the 747-400. The last telling clue about the now strained relationship is that there was no ceremony celebrating the first delivery of this airplane like there was for the 787 and that there appears to be a "stealth delivery" with no mention from either side that it was taking place until after the Flightaware notifications went out.

I do think Boeing will eventually hold an appropriate ceremony when the next customer 747-8F is delivered (which I believe to be Cathay Pacific Cargo) if anything to put this awful experience behind them. At least U-Tuen Al won't be there to spoil the celebrations.

Cargolux might be taking delivery of first 747-8F today

UPDATE: Boeing just confirmed (through Randy Tiseth's "Randy's Journal" not a press release) that Cargolux is taking delivery of it's first 747-8F and it will fly ti Sea-Tac to pick up its first load of cargo and will conduct its first revenue flight. Boeing will deliver the 2nd airplane to Cargolux tomorrow.

Here's Randy Tinseth's post:

Delivery day for Cargolux
I’m happy to announce that we’ve resolved the contractual issues that delayed the first delivery of our new 747-8 Freighter last month. I’m even happier to let you know that Cargolux will take delivery of their first freighter today (October 12) and immediately put it into service with a stop at Sea-Tac Airport for a cargo pickup. On Thursday, Cargolux will take delivery of its second 747-8F.

Even though we had to wait a bit longer than expected, it doesn’t make these deliveries any less sweet. We know Cargolux and every customer after them will love this airplane in every way—from how it flies to how it performs.

I’d like to personally congratulate every employee who had a hand in working on this beautiful new symbol of Boeing. We all look forward to seeing it take to the sky as an official member of the Cargolux fleet.

Cargolux may be taking delivery of its first 747-8F today in what might be the first stealth delivery of a new airplane program. The only clue is a flight plan through a Flightware.com posting:


Cargolux Airlines International #1JS (B748) has just filed a flight plan. It
is scheduled to depart from Snohomish County (KPAE) at 11:00 PDT heading for
Seattle-Tacoma Intl (KSEA) for an estimated arrival at 11:16 PDT.

Expected route: ERYKA MGNUM ANVIL SODOE

For more information visit http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CLX1JS

Visit http://flightaware.com/mobile to download FlightAware's all-new mobile
apps for Android, iPhone, iPad, BlackBerry, and WP7!

To edit or disable these alerts please visit http://flightaware.com/account/manage/alerts/

Cargolux's plan after taking delivery of the first 747-8F was to fly it to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport where it would pick up its first revenue cargo load and immediately begin revenue service. This aircraft's flight plan is to fly from Paine Field to Sea-Tac. Boeing, GE, Cargolux and Qatar Airways are close to hashing out a final agreement and Qatar Airways chief Akbar Al-Baker (U-Turn Al) has said that Oct. 12th was a target date to accept delivery.

Special Delivery - The first delivery of the 787

Today Boeing and ANA completed the contractual delivery of the first 787 which meant that the formal delivery acceptance documents were signed and ANA paid the final installment for ZA101 (LN8). There will be a ceremonial handover on Monday in an elaborate ceremony...no word on if there's a special musical guest for this one but the paperwork was signed today and the aircraft now officially belongs to ANA who will fly it to Haneda on Tuesday. Boeing has also flown ZA103 (LN24), the next 787 to be delivered to ANA, on Sept. 24. It is scheduled for its delivery around mid October.

Currently, delivery of the 747-8F to Cargolux is still on hold though the two Cargolux airplanes have been making test flights in recent days. Despite the cancellation of Atlas Air's three early 747-8F, Cathay Pacific Cargo said that they are satisfied with the 747-8F and intend to go ahead with deliveries starting later this fall.


CNBC is also having a special on the 787 called “Dreamliner: Inside the World’s Most Anticipated Airplane” premiering on Tuesday, September 27th at 9PM ET/PT.

Here are a few links to video of the documentary and web extras:

787 Dreamliner

Inside the Dreamliner

Boeing CEO McNerney and the 787 Dreamliner

And a video of ANA doing a final inspection on ZA101:




Boeing's Official 787 First Delivery Web Site

Here's Boeing's statement on the contractual delivery of the first 787:

Boeing, ANA Complete Contractual Delivery of First 787 Dreamliner

EVERETT, Wash., Sept. 25, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) and ANA have signed the formal documents completing the contractual delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner. Celebrations to mark this historic milestone begin tomorrow in Everett with a delivery ceremony followed by flyaway of the airplane on Tuesday. Today's signing comes after a series of flights, inspections and the transfer of funds.

"Now that the airplane is ready to deliver, the entire team is ready to celebrate," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "We look forward to honoring our launch customer ANA before they fly their first Dreamliner home to Japan."

Celebrations for Boeing employees begin Monday at 6 a.m. (Pacific time) outside the 787 factory in Everett with the static display of ZA002, one of the flight test airplanes painted in ANA's livery. ANA and Boeing executives, employees, partners and government officials will gather at 9 a.m. for the delivery ceremony in the same location. Airplane 24, painted in ANA's special livery, will join the display during the ceremony. Flyaway of the airplane to Tokyo is scheduled Tuesday morning at 6:35 a.m. from Paine Field.

A live webcast of Monday's delivery events and Tuesday's flyaway can be seen at www.newairplane.com. Video highlights of those events also will be posted to the website.

"ANA has been a tremendous partner from day one," said Fancher. "Through the hard work and challenges, the Boeing team never lost focus on the commitments to our valued customer. We know ANA's customers will love this airplane."

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is an all-new airplane featuring a host of technologies
that provide exceptional value to airlines and unparalleled levels of comfort to passengers. It is the first mid-size airplane capable of flying long-range routes, enabling airlines to open new, non-stop routes preferred by the traveling public.

Composite materials, more-electric systems, advanced aerodynamics and modern engines combine to make the 787 more fuel efficient and provide lower operating costs. Passengers will appreciate the cleaner cabin air, higher humidity and lower cabin altitude that combine to help them feel more refreshed after flying on the 787. Other innovations include larger windows with electrochromic shades, bigger onboard luggage bins and LED lighting.

Testing is continuing on the Trent-100 package b upgrades which will actually be introduced on the next 787 to enter service, LN 24 (ZA103). This aircraft has flown with the package "A" Trent-1000 engines but will be delivered with the package "B" engines next month.

Meanwhile the aviation blogosphere was putting out a ton of reports surrounding the 787 because of this weeks first delivery and I've included a few links below:

Guy Norris:
787 Test Team Shuffle

787-9 Critical Design Review

More Frequent Interior Upgrades on the 787

Upgraded Trent 1000 Undergoing Noise Test on 787

ANA to get 12 787 by April 2012

Scott Hamilton:
Boeing Delivers First 787 to ANA

Soundbites from 787 Delivery

Flightblogger:
All Nippon's First 787 receives Certificate of Airworthiness

Project Gemini Documents look into 787 line selection

The world's First 787 delivered to All Nippon Airways

With second ANA 787, Trent 1000 package "B" takes flight

Dominic Gates:
Boeing celebrates 787 delivery as program costs top $32bn

Aubrey Cohen:
Boeing set to deliver first 787 Dreamliner

David Parker Brown:

Live Blog: Boeing 787 Dreamliner Pre-Delivery Events

747-8F dispute update

Well not too much to report though RC502, the first 747-8F that was to have been delivered to Cargolux did have a customer flight today. This is curious since Cargolux pulled their people out of Everett when the dispute erupted on Friday. They may be back and flying so it MAY be a sign that negotiations are progressing.

Cargolux 747-8F delivery being held hostage by Akbar Al-Baker and Qatar Airways

In a posting by Scott Hamilton this morning, Qatar Airways and it's chief executive Akbar Al-Baker, who have a 35% stake in Cargolux, are allegedly forcing Boeing back to negotiating compensation not just over 747-8F performance shortfalls but also for more compensation for Qatar Airways 787 delivery delays. The later issue was resolved earlier with Al-Baker proclaiming that he was satisfied with the results of the negotiations at the time.

Apparently he has has a change of heart with regards to the compensation thus keeping true to his U-Turn Al nickname in the industry. Now mind you that the customers of the 747-8F knew for over year of the shortfalls in performance of the 747-8F and have already or in the process of negotiating compensation because of the issues that were uncovered during flight testing. Additionally Boeing and engine maker GE are in process of developing performance improvement packages (PIP) for the aircraft's GEnx-2B engines that would be backfitted into the earlier models of the aircraft and would allow them to be flown to the initial contracted performance specs (or very close to those specs).

If Al-Baker is indeed using Cargolux's 747-8F as a ploy to get more compensation from Boeing, he is playing a very dangerous game. 1) He is putting his investment in Cargolux at risk as they do need these aircraft to remain competitive especially when Cargolux's competitors will take delivery. 2) Boeing can say enough is enough and play hardball. Airbus does not have an alternative to the 747-8F and that would anger Cargolux's other shareholders (Al-Baker only owns 35% of the company) as one company is being used to benefit another company.

How this plays out will provide interesting aviation theater which Al-Baker loves. In the meanwhile the 787 looks like will be delivered first and I also don't preclude the ability of Boeing to deliver the 747-8F to other customers who have a firm contract in place with compensation.

Scott Hamilton: Cargolux 747-8F dispute linked to late Qatar 787 deliveries

Flightblogger: Cargolux 747-8F delivery becomes "highly unlikely" this week

Delivery Delayed

Boeing Photo

Cargolux Airlines informed Boeing that they do not intend to take delivery of the first 747-8F on Monday, September 19th. The reason are unresolved contractual issues for the aircraft. While this may be a temporary bump to eventual delivery to the aircraft the concern is what effect wold this have on other 747-8F customers? They may hold out on delivery as well in return to renegotiate their contracts prior to the delivery of their airplanes. This may turn into a serious situation nd the 787 may end being delivered before the 747. Cargolux (and Boeing) has also been touting the impending delivery of the 748F on their web site so it could be some language in the paperwork that needs to be straighten out. So let's see how this contract issue plays out. Cargolux has paid up much upfront costs for these airplanes and they want them right way so they're not going to just walk away.

Boeing receives type certification for 747-8F

Boeing Photo

Boeing announced today that it has received type certification and the company now has clear path to start delivering the freighter version of the newest member of the 747 family in early September to Cargolux.

Cargolux will receive the first 747-8F early next month. The next four months will see Boeing delivering 3 new airplanes to customers (787-8, 747-8F and 747-8I) which is unprecedented in commercial aviation history. The FAA has given Boeing the Amended Type Certificate as well as the Amended Production Certificate (which allows Boeing to produce the 747-8F using FAA validated methods). EASA has also granted the amended type certificate to the 747-8F.

Even though the FAA has certified the 747-8F this is not the end of certification activities for this particular airplane. The 747-8F was certified with the flight management software for the 747-400. Full certification with the improvements to the software would have delayed the entry into service of the aircraft thus Boeing elected to certify the airplane with the older version of the software and then certify the 747-8 flight management software later this year.

Here's a description of the 747-8 flight management software from Guy Norris of Aviation Week:

The debate over readiness centers on the standard of software in the Honeywell-supplied Next Generation Flight Management System (NGFMS) at the heart of the 747-8 avionics suite. The system enables Required Navigation Performance (RNP) 0.1, and enables operators to comply with both the U.S. NextGen Air Traffic Management (ATM) and the Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) program. The system also supports Wide Area Augmentation System Localizer Performance with Vertical guidance, Future Air Navigation System 1 (FANS-1) and FANS-2 requirements.

The core of the new FMS also is flying on the Gulfstream G650 ultra-long range business jet, but incorporates an architecture that partitions the flight management code from the user interface. This has enabled 747-8-specific user interfaces, inputs and outputs to be connected to the advanced FMS via a number of “abstraction” layers. The NGFMS software also will run in the same basic FMS box as the current Boeing 747-400, which will be upgraded by inserting a single processor card.

There is no word on when flight testing will be complete on the 747-8 flight management software. Boeing is continuing flight testing on the 747-8I and thus far it has flown just under 500 flight test hours of the 600 flight test hours that is needed for certification. Boeing still plans to start deliveries of that aircraft by the end of the year.

Meanwhile Boeing is awaiting FAA certification of the Rolls Royce powered 787-8. It is being reported that the certification is expected in another week for the 787-8. Meanwhile ZA101, the first 787 to be delivered started its Trent-1000 engines for the first time yesterday and I anticipate B-1 flight (Boeing first flight) very soon after type certification fy the FAA. Boeing is also planning to start F&R/ETOPs testing on the GEnx powered version of the 787 sometime in September though the date is still unknown. Boeing's 787 backlog is heavily skewed in favor of GEnx powered aircraft thus it is highly important for Boeing to conduct those final tests in order to certify and deliver that version of the plane. The derivative the GEnx-1B that powered the 787, the GEnx-2B will be flying for customers first when the 747-8F enters revenue service.

Here's Boeing's Statemeent of the 747-8F type certificate:

New Boeing 747-8 Freighter Certified for Entry into Service

U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, European Aviation Safety Agency certify design of new member of 747 family

SEATTLE, Aug. 19, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) received U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) certification Friday for the new 747-8 Freighter, passing two of the final landmarks on the airplane's journey to entry into service. The FAA granted Boeing an Amended Type Certificate (ATC) and an Amended Production Certificate for the 747-8 Freighter, while the EASA also granted the company an ATC for the airplane.

With these certificates, the program is in the final stages of preparing to deliver the first 747-8 Freighter to launch customer Cargolux in early September.

"This is such a great day for everyone on the 747 team," said Jim Albaugh, president and CEO, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Over the last several years, this team has overcome challenge after challenge. Through their hard work and dedication, they have ensured that the 747, the Queen of the Skies, will fly for decades to come."

The drive to certify the 747-8 Freighter was a team effort, said Elizabeth Lund, vice president and general manager, 747 Program. "This is a day to express our profound thanks to everyone at Boeing and at our suppliers who played a part in designing, building and testing this airplane," she said. "It's a day to thank our colleagues at the
FAA and EASA for all of their hard work. And it's a day to appreciate our customers for their commitment to the program."

The Amended Type Certificate acknowledges that the FAA and EASA have certified that the design of the 747-8 Freighter is compliant with all aviation regulatory requirements and will produce a safe and reliable airplane. The airplane logged more than 3,400 hours of flight testing and many thousands more of ground, part, component, materials and other testing on the road to certification.

The Amended Production Certificate shows the FAA has validated that the Boeing 747
production system can reliably produce airplanes that will conform to the airplane's design. EASA accepts FAA oversight of Boeing production certificates as sufficient for its regulations, as FAA accepts EASA oversight of European manufacturers' production certificates.

The 747-8 Freighter is the new high-capacity 747 that will give cargo operators the lowest operating costs and best economics of any freighter airplane while providing enhanced environmental performance. It is 250 feet, 2 inches (76.3 m) long, which is 18 feet and 4 inches (5.6 m) longer than the 747-400 Freighter. The stretch provides customers with 16 percent more revenue cargo volume compared to its predecessor. That translates to four additional main-deck pallets and three additional lower-hold
pallets. The 747-8 Freighters will be powered with GE's GEnx-2B engines.

Trent powered 787 due to finish certification testing this weekend

Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, Jim Albaugh speaking at the Jefferies conference said that the 787 just has 24 hour more flight testing left to be done to complete certification testing for the Trent-1000 powered version of the airplane. Boeing expects to receive type certification for the 787 sometime next week and plans to deliver the first 787, ZA101, to ANA next month.

The last bit of F&R testing (which is being undertaken by ZA102) will be completed by this weekend which will allow Boeing to submit the last bit of paperwork to the FAA. The FAA will have a review board meeting with Boeing to go over the the type certification of the 787 which is expected to result in the FAA granting type certification.

Yet to be done is the F&R/ETOPs testing for the GEnx powered version of the 787. There is still isn't any clarification as to when that will be started and when Boeing plans to deliver the first GEnx-1B powered 787 to Japan Airlines. Boeing is still talking to the FAA about that testing regime for the GEnx powered 787 and which aircraft(s) will be used to conduct that testing.

Albaugh also indicated that the long pole in the tent with increasing the 787 production rate is the North Charleston facilities that Boeing had bought (previously owned by Vought and Global Aeronautica). Those facilities are the "pinch point" according to Albaugh.

James Albaugh also said that Boeing is meeting this week with the FAA regarding the type certification of the 747-8F but still plans to deliver the first example to Cargolux next month. Type certification is expected in the next couple of weeks for this airplane.

747-8F completes certification testing

Boeing announced that it has completed the certification testing for the 747-8F.

This now means that the company will submit the remainig paperwork to the FAA which will issue the type certification for the airplane ususally in about 30 days. I suspect that Boeing will be able to deliver hte first 747-8F around mid September time frame to Cargolux.

Here's Boeing's Press Release:

New Boeing 747-8 Freighter Completes Certification Flight Testing

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 3, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The new Boeing (NYSE: BA) 747-8 Freighter successfully completed its certification flight test program Tuesday, with two airplanes landing at Paine Field in Everett, Wash. Flight test airplane RC522 completed testing of the flight management computer (FMC) and RC523 completed function & reliability (F&R) testing.

"This is such a great day for the new 747-8 and for all the employees who played a part in designing, building and testing this incredible, game-changing airplane," said Elizabeth Lund, Boeing vice president and general manager, 747 program. "We are in the home stretch in delivering this airplane to our customers."

The first 747-8 Freighter is scheduled to be delivered to launch customer Cargolux in September after certification from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

The 747-8 Freighter has flown more than 1,200 flights and 3,400 hours since its first flight Feb. 8, 2010. During that time, the five-airplane test fleet was used to gather data for more than 1,700 FAA certification requirements. Boeing tested the capabilities of these airplanes far beyond what they are expected to encounter in normal service. Tests concluded with F&R testing, a final phase in which an airplane must accrue 300 FAA-approved flight hours in its final delivery configuration.

"My team and I had the pleasure of spending hundreds of hours in these airplanes," said 747 Chief Pilot Mark Feuerstein. "We can truly say this airplane is a joy to fly, and our customers are going to love it. It flies like a 747, but one from the 21st century."

The 747-8 Freighter is the new high-capacity 747 that will give cargo operators the lowest operating costs and best economics of any freighter airplane while providing enhanced environmental performance. It is 18 feet and 4 inches (5.6 m) longer than the 747-400 Freighter. The stretch provides customers with 16 percent more revenue cargo volume compared to its predecessor. That translates to four additional main-deck pallets and three additional lower-hold pallets. The 747-8 Freighters will be powered with GE's GEnx-2B engines.

787 and 747-8: Coming to the finish line; delivery set for Aug./Sept. for 787

Boeing has for all intent and purposes declared that the finish line is insight for the 787-8 and 747-8F airplane flight tests and are preparing the gaggle of airplanes sitting at Everett Field for delivery to customers. These announcements came at Boeing Investor's Conference held on May 24th. Boeing program manager's also made revelations regarding the 787-8 and its future variants both in terms of new product development as well as production.

Flight Testing

787

Boeing confirmed that F&R and ETOPS testing will start in early June. Earlier I had reported a June 9th start date and that date looks to be solid. Functionality and reliability testing will test the aircraft as if it is in a commercial airline environment with simulating failures and other problems to see how the 787 will handle it. The test airplanes will be used but critical to this testing will be the use of ZA102, the ninth 787 built and recently re-worked to full production standard with all the necessary change incorporation modifications that were needed. This is the standard that all production 787 in which all will be delivered. So far the Rolls Royce powered 787s have completed 96% of required testing and the GEnx powered 787s are done with 75% of testing.

The FAA must issue an amended type inspection authorization (TIA) before Boeing can start F&R and ETOPs testing but that should happen soon. Thus far, of the 4,200 deliverables that needs to be completed for type certification of the Rolls powered 787, less than 150 remain to be done and of those less than 40 need to be submitted to the FAA directly. ETOPs certification will be accomplished on test points that need to be run and not the number of flight hours. Those test points will be run during the 300 hours needed for F&R testing thus both tasks will be tested concurrently.

As this required testing draws to a close, Boeing will send ZA002 during the week of July 4th to Japan for service ready validation operations (SRVO) where the airplane will be inducted into ANA's operations. This testing is to ensure that the 787 is ready for life as a passenger carrier and not a test airplane. ANA and Boeing will conduct fit checks with maintenance stands and jacks within the hangar, ground servicing operations, refueling and maintenance activities, as well as simulate operations between initial city pairs that ANA will fly the airplane on like Tokyo, Osaka, and Hiroshima. Read Boeing's statement:

Boeing and ANA to Conduct 787 Service Readiness Validation in Japan

-The first time the 787 will fly to Asia and Japan

TOKYO, May 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] and ANA today announced how the two companies will work together to help prove the 787 Dreamliner's readiness to enter service on a commercial basis. Using the second flight test aircraft, known as ZA002, they will simulate in-service operations across several airports in Japan in a service ready operational validation. The validation is expected to take place the week of July 4. Anticipated city pairs include trips between Haneda Airport in Tokyo and airports in Osaka (Itami and Kansai), Okayama and Hiroshima.
This will be the 787's maiden appearance in Japan. ANA is the launch customer for the aircraft and has 55 Dreamliners on order. The 787, which will be deployed across the ANA route network, is an integral part of ANA's strategy to strengthen its position and support its growth and expansion plans.

"ANA is eager to introduce the innovative 787 Dreamliner to Japan," said Shinichiro Ito, ANA president and chief executive officer. "Giving our employees the opportunity to gain experience with the airplane will help ensure a smoother entry into service later this year."

"We've put the airplane through its paces in a rigorous flight test program," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "Now, as we get closer to first delivery, we'll prove out its capabilities and reliability in a revenue-like environment."

ANA's maintenance crews also will practice maintenance and servicing of the 787 during the validation. This will include typical ground servicing activities, fit checks of airplane jacks and maintenance hangar stands, towing and refueling the airplane, and other routine maintenance operations. Watch this video to see how Boeing and ANA are planning for the validation.

Similar service ready validations have been conducted with great success on previous Boeing programs, including the 777, 737NG and 757-300.

Boeing plans to deliver the first 787 to ANA in the August to September timeframe.

After SRVO is completed along with ETOPs and F&R , Boeing will submit PSOC (program statement of compliance) which will allows the FAA to rule on type certification for the 787 and allow Boeing to deliver in August/September. My gut feeling is we can see first delivery around mid to late August after ETOPs and F&R testing is completed in mid to late July.

There was no word on testing for the GEnx powered 787 though Boeing is completed with 75% of testing. Boeing still has to announce when F&R and and ETOPs testing will start on ZA005 and ZA006 but I anticipate that Boeing will have to have on production GEnx powered 787 ready to support that testing. It could be ZA177 which is the 23rd 787 built and destined for Japan Airlines. It is currently undergoing rework and change incorporation at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas. Still I would not completely rule out a production plane straight off the assembly line especially if it require very little work to get it ready for flight. Considering that carriers such as JAL, Air India and China Southern have ordered the GEnx-1B, Boeig will be under pressure
to finish up certification activities for the GEnx powered model. I wouldn't expect first delivery to JAL until October at the earliest. GE has received more orders for it's GEnx-1B engines to power the 787 than Rolls Royce has for the Trent 1000 engines.

747

Like the 787, the 747-8F is also nearing the end of its certification tests. It still has to conduct F&R testing and the the start of this testing is dependent on the FAA signing off on part of the Honeywell design flight management software and its readiness to conduct F&R testing. Still according to Guy Norris Boeing expects the start F&R testing around the end of May. To signify how far 747 testing has come, Boeing has sent one 747 test airplanes to Lackland AFB to undergo change incorporation and preparations for delivery. RC503 has been at Lackland AFB since May 13th for the required rework. Flight testing on the 747-8I continues and is currently well over 200 flight test hours between the two flight test aircraft. Boeing has said that the flight test program for the 747-8I will be about 600 flight test hour thus this program is already more than one third of the way through the flight testing hours that is needed.

Production

Boeing also addressed production rates at the conference. Currently, production of the 787 is at two per month. Interestingly, James Bell, Boeing CFO said that Boeing would have built 40 production standard 787s by the time the first one is delivered to ANA. Given that Boeing has just started work on the 35th production standard 787 and at the current pace of 2 per month, Boeing should be at number 40 around August. Boeing is being extremely cautious when it comes to increasing production rates, especially on the 787. They have stated that until they know that they can handle the next production increase without travelled work the rate won't increase. That said they are saying that the 787 production increase to 2.5 per month is expected to start later this summer (August/September in my opinion). Additionally Boeing North Charleston will come one line in July with the first 787 for United Airlines to be loaded in the tooling jig. With all the problems that Boeing has had with the production system, Boeing has indicated t hat they are prepared to move production of the horizontal stabilizer for the 787-9 from Alenia and back in house within Boeing at Seattle. This was in many way not unexpected given Alenia's performance on the HTP for the 787-8. However, Boeing may need to negotiate the move of that work from Italy to Seattle with Alenia as it is Alenia that owns the design though it is unclear if the current agreement between the two firms extended to the 787-9. This tale (pun intended) is not over.

Future 787 Variants

Boeing has always left the option of building variants of the 787 including the larger 787-10 (now known as the 787-10X). During the conference Boeing, while not outright launching the 787-10X has given strong indications that they intend to do so. They plan on a stretch of about 6m which would accommodate an additional 43 passengers over the 787-9 which can carry 290 passengers. This would squarely put it in competition with the A350-900 and can possibly be seen as a replacement for the 777-200 and possibly the 777-200ER. The expected range is going to be less than that of the 787-9 due to keeping the same wing as the -9 variant. James Albaugh, head of BCA said of the -10X, "I believe this will be an airplane we will probably do."

15 Months In.....

Ok so it has been a while and I've been out of circulation a bit but I'm back so let's get down to business!

All photos courtesy of Boeing

747-8

Boeing's enlarged version of their iconic widebody, the 747-8I, took to the skies on March 20th at exactly the time that Boeing said it would fly. The test flight crew of Mark Feuerstein and Paul Stemer took it up for a four plus hour test flight which exceeded all expectations and allowed Boeing to proceed with test that normally would wait until well after first flight like testing stability and control conditions. The 747-8I that flew, RC001, landed at a little at 2 pm local time at Boeing Field where the two plane test flight fleet will be based. RC021, the next 747-8I to fly is already starting preparation for ground testing and has already had its first APU start at the Everett fuel dock. The 747-8I test program will take about 600 flight hours and should be done in about 8 to 9 months at the outside. Boeing is expecting to deliver the first couple at the end of the year after the aircraft is certified. Meanwhile the 747-8F test program continues apace as that program continues to tick off more certification milestones as it aims for certification and delivery in about 3 to 4 months.

787

787 program is now aiming for first delivery for late July to ANA, according to Flightblogger, which is within Boeing's delivery guidance but is much earlier than expected and may reflect the conservative estimates that Boeing had put out when they announced the latest delivery schedule.

Test flight testing pace has slowed since the January-February time frame indicating that much of the certification testing is already complete and Boeing is ready to move into the final phase of flight test: functionality and reliability testing and ETOPs flight tests. It is expected that this testing should start around May and conclude around mid July. The Trent powered 787s have completed 85% of the certification test points that it needs to achieve while the GEnx equipped 787s are about 70% complete with their certification testing.

Additionally, ZA004 is now expected to switch out it's Trent-1000 "A" package engines for the improved package "B" engines around the first week on April. All the while, Boeing will continue to churn out 787s in Everett. Already Boeing is working on airplane 36 and will start on airplane 37 sometime tomorrow. Boeing is well on it's way to implementing the change incorporation program with many of the 787s at Everett already going through the re-work process in order to be in compliance with the expected FAA type certification expected in July. Boeing is expecting to deliver the first 787 to ANA in July followed by JAL and Air India in October and China Southern probably around the November-December time frame. All in all Boeing will probably deliver about 20 787s this year and I expect that most of those delivered will be the the aircraft requiring less rework though I would think that the earlier build 787s all should be delivered by around February of 2012 at the latest.

Japan Earthquake

A big unknown that has crept into Boeing's plans is the effects of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan will have on not just 787 production but indeed on the production of all Boeing jets. Boeing uses the just in time method of operations to keep inventories (and thus costs) low. However with this potential disruption caused by the earthquake, tsunami and problems at the Fukushima nuclear plant Boeing has admitted that they may have just a few weeks of parts for their airplane programs. For the 787, the major tier 1 suppliers are in Nagoya which is south of the affected zone. However other minor suppliers are situated in the areas that were hit. As it stands Boeing is still saying that as of right now, 787 production is unaffected but long term we will have to watch. Boeing is planning to increase production to 2.5 airplanes per month later this summer (June according to Flightblogger) and with the start of production at Charleston in July will go higher still meaning that the Japanese suppliers will be needed to make sure they have the infrastructure and electrical needs in order to meet the higher output milestones this summer.

Speaking of Charleston, that plant is practically done and I think they may start production on time in July. They are going to be done with the interiors production facility in December and should be in a great position to contribute to the 787 production increase to 10/month.