Boeing's first 747-8I (RC001) made a brief move from the 747 final assembly line in building 40-22 to building 40-23 where it will be undergoing more ground testing before heading outside to be painted and gauntlet testing prior to first flight which is expected in sometime in February.
A second 747-8I of the line and destined for Lufthansa (RC021) is expected to come off the line next month and be flying sometime around April. The length of the flight test program will be much shorter owing to the fact that much of the testing has already been done on the 747-8F and does not need to be repeated on the 747-8I. It's anticipated that the two aircraft test flight fleet should finish all flight test and certification activities in about 6 months with first delivery to a VIP customer in November or December of this year.
Matt Cawby got some great pictures of the first 747-8I being rolled to 40-23:
Matt Cawby: 747-8 Intercontinental Move
Showing posts with label 40-23. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 40-23. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Friday, November 19, 2010
ATW: Boeing to announce 7th 787 delay
According to Geoffrey Thomas of Air Transport World, Boeing is getting ready to announce another delivery delay of possibly up to 9 months. Geoffrey also cites QANTAS engineering insiders that there is a significant (he did not elaborate) problem.
As I mentioned, the FAA is really the determinant of when the 787 will return to flight and be certified. At the time of the fire, I estimate that Boeing had about two and half to three months of flight testing to be completed. If this still holds then it's possible that the 787s could return to flight testing in about 6 months with delivery about 3 months later. This puts a projected first delivery date to about mid to late third quarter of 2011. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Boeing will announce a new first delivery date of mid fourth quarter 2011. They will need some time to digest the data from the flight testing that has been done; produce the required engineering changes and incorporate the changes into the 787s that have been built.
Geoffrey Thomas: Boeing reportedly set to announce another 787 delay
Despite another delay, I expect that Boeing will continue to produce 787s and get them ready for delivery. As had been mentioned in the past postings, Boeing has significant rework to do on the 787s that have been built. Another delay will give them some breathing room to get that rework done. They will have more rework to do after the test flight fleet returns to the air and other issues are revealed that would require changes to be made on the production 787s. The continued production of 787 that are undelivered presents Boeing with another problem: where to put park all those 787s. Already Boeing is squeezing them into spots near the Future of Flight Museum as well as the the apron in front of the Boeing assembly building and has set aside spots near the Everett ATC Tower to park even more 787s. But if there is another delay where can Boeing park all those new built 787s especially as they attempt to ramp up production next year? Mind you that the Boeing Everett ramp will be full of 777, 747-8, and 787s. There is the potential of additional stalls to the south of the Boeing plant, as well as the ATS Hangar which Boeing is renting currently. Boeing can possibly rent the ramp space in front of the ATS hangar. Boeing can also use building 40-23 which was used for the static testing of the 787 fuselage. That fuselage is due to be removed as is the test equipment that was installed for the static testing.
According to sources, Boeing is looking into increasing the 777 production rate to 8 to 10 per month from the current 5.5 per month. Boeing would utilize 40-23 for additional 777 assembly space. However, with the current issues in the 787 program, that space might be better served, in the short run, to store production 787 as well as an enclosed space to do rework on the 787s. Hopefully many of the questions will be answered in the next few days.
As I mentioned, the FAA is really the determinant of when the 787 will return to flight and be certified. At the time of the fire, I estimate that Boeing had about two and half to three months of flight testing to be completed. If this still holds then it's possible that the 787s could return to flight testing in about 6 months with delivery about 3 months later. This puts a projected first delivery date to about mid to late third quarter of 2011. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Boeing will announce a new first delivery date of mid fourth quarter 2011. They will need some time to digest the data from the flight testing that has been done; produce the required engineering changes and incorporate the changes into the 787s that have been built.
Geoffrey Thomas: Boeing reportedly set to announce another 787 delay
Despite another delay, I expect that Boeing will continue to produce 787s and get them ready for delivery. As had been mentioned in the past postings, Boeing has significant rework to do on the 787s that have been built. Another delay will give them some breathing room to get that rework done. They will have more rework to do after the test flight fleet returns to the air and other issues are revealed that would require changes to be made on the production 787s. The continued production of 787 that are undelivered presents Boeing with another problem: where to put park all those 787s. Already Boeing is squeezing them into spots near the Future of Flight Museum as well as the the apron in front of the Boeing assembly building and has set aside spots near the Everett ATC Tower to park even more 787s. But if there is another delay where can Boeing park all those new built 787s especially as they attempt to ramp up production next year? Mind you that the Boeing Everett ramp will be full of 777, 747-8, and 787s. There is the potential of additional stalls to the south of the Boeing plant, as well as the ATS Hangar which Boeing is renting currently. Boeing can possibly rent the ramp space in front of the ATS hangar. Boeing can also use building 40-23 which was used for the static testing of the 787 fuselage. That fuselage is due to be removed as is the test equipment that was installed for the static testing.
According to sources, Boeing is looking into increasing the 777 production rate to 8 to 10 per month from the current 5.5 per month. Boeing would utilize 40-23 for additional 777 assembly space. However, with the current issues in the 787 program, that space might be better served, in the short run, to store production 787 as well as an enclosed space to do rework on the 787s. Hopefully many of the questions will be answered in the next few days.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Boeing confirms success of 787 Ultimate Load Test
Boeing PhotoHours after conducting the ultimate load test, Boeing announced that the test has been completed successfully based on preliminary examination of the data. It will be a few more weeks of detailed analysis by Boeing structural engineers. The wings were deflected to 25 ft high during the test. Once the data is analyzed by Boeing it will be sent to the FAA as part of the certification program. This is a huge hurdle that Boeing overcame especially in light of the side of body issue that was revealed over 6 months ago. Here's Boeing's press release:
Boeing Completes Ultimate-Load Wing TestThe next major milestone is the issuance of the Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) that will kick off the formal certification of the 787 by the FAA with their inspectors and engineers flying on board the 787 during the certification test flights. That is expected any day now, perhaps as early as tomorrow.
EVERETT, Wash., March 28, 2010 – Boeing today completed the ultimate load wing up-bending test on the 787 Dreamliner static test unit. During the testing, loads were applied to the airframe to replicate 150 percent of the most extreme forces the airplane is ever expected to experience while in service. The wings were flexed upward by approximately 25 feet (7.6 meters) during the test.
Initial results of the ultimate load test are positive. More extensive analysis and review are required before the test can be deemed a success.
“The test program has been more robust than any conducted on a Boeing commercial jetliner,” said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “It has taken countless hours of hard work by the Boeing team and our partners to work through the static test program. Everyone who has been involved in this effort over the past several years should be very proud of their contributions to ensuring the safety of the 787 Dreamliner.
“We are looking forward to the technical team’s report on the details of the test results,” said Fancher. It will take them several weeks to work through all of the data.
During each second of the more than two-hour test, thousands of data points were collected to monitor the performance of the wing. Key data points are monitored real-time during the test, but all of the data will be evaluated in the weeks ahead.
Guy Norris, Flightblogger and Saj Ahmad also posted info on the 787 ultimate load test. Here are the links for your reading pleasure:
Guy Norris: Wing ultimate load test complete on 787
Flightblogger: Confirmed: ZY997 completes 150% ultimate wing load test
Saj Ahmad: Boeing 787 Wing Test Milestone Completion
787 ultimate load test to be conducted today
Boeing Photo
UPDATE (6:21 PM on March 28th): Flightblogger just tweeted that the test has occured and that indications are that the wing had passed the 150% ultimate load test with no funnies. Good news!
Boeing has scheduled the ultimate load test for the 787 wing today, March 28th. the test was to occur between 10 AM and 12 noon Pacific Time. Since it is past that time there is still no word on if the test was conducted and the results (if any).
In order for the test to be undertaken today, Boeing cleared buildings 40-22 (747 assembly), 40-23 (static test) and the 40-24 buildings of all personnel except for the test engineers that are sequestered in a "bomb shelter" in building 40-23. This is in case the wing fails before it reaches the 150% load threshold. Boeing doesn't plan to break the wing above the 150% threshold.
I am still waiting to hear about results but until then here's a great article from Bloomberg about the 787 ultimate load test.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Another moment to groan...another 787 structural flaw
My good friend, Flightblogger, aka Jon Ostrower has done it again. He broke the news that Boeing had issued a stop work to Alenia manufactured fuselage barrels due to wrinkles that formed in the stringers of the fuselage barrels for airplanes 7 through 29. Flightblogger cited a Boeing memo (on Boeing letterhead) that was obtained and dated June 23rd. The flaws are traced back to the manufacturing process of the two barrels (section 44 and 46) in Grottaglie, Italy. According to Boeing, a fix has been identified and the patched should be applied soon. The patched would be applied to the the outside of the fuselage to provide structural strength in the areas supported by the stringers.
Boeing told me that the patch fix is permanent to airplanes 7 through 29 and with airplane 30 the fix is incorporated by adding additional plies of composite tape to the skin prior to going into the autoclave during the manufacturing process. The patch won't incur any weight or aerodynamic penalties. Boeing said they have no timetable for the resumption of manufacturing at Alenia.
What is a little disconcerting is that the stop work order was issued on June 23rd which is the same day that Boeing announced the postponement of first flight due to the side of body structural flaw. While Boeing announced the side of body issue, there was no mention of the wrinkling issue found in the fuselage barrels. Now according to an article in Bloomberg by Susanna Ray, Boeing spokeswoman said that “It didn’t have any material impact on the program in schedule or cost, so there was no reason to discuss it publicly.” Clearly Boeing has been burdened by bad news after bad news on this program and is trying to limit the amount of negative publicity on the 787 program. However with news like this coming out the way it did, Boeing's credibility has dropped another notch.
Flightblogger Report
Bloomberg 787 report
Other 787 News
Guy Norris is reporting that taxi test for ZA002 can conduct it's ground taxi tests as early as this weekend pending a safety walk down. Guy also said that this will be the last taxi tests conducted by any 787 until the side of body fix is installed on ZA001. Other than that the next major event to happen will be the installation and testing of the side of body fix on the static air frame (ZY997). The parts are supposedly on the way to Everett if not already there.
Guy's August 13th/14th update
Earlier this week Flightblogger outlined the location of the the aircraft in at Everett:
ZA001 - In the paint shop where it will undergo the installation of the parts to fix the structural issues.
ZA002 - Boeing flight line where it will conduct ground taxi tests and then will be prepped for installation of the fix.
ZA003 - In building 40-23 (747 assembly line) waiting for side of body fix
ZA004 - In building 40-26 (787 line) waiting for side of body fix
ZA005 - In building 40-26 behind ZA006 waiting for side of body fix
ZA006 - Boeing flight line waiting for side of body fix
ZA100 - In building 40-26 behind ZA005 continuing final assembly activities and waiting for side of body fix
ZA101 - In building 40-26 behind ZA100 starting final assembly activities
ZA102 - Wings, horizontal and vertical stabilizers and rear fuselage in back of building 40-26.
ZY997 - In building 40-22 undergoing repairs and waiting for side of body fix
ZY998 - In building 40-23 (747 assembly line) waiting for side of body fix
Read Getting Oriented
Boeing told me that the patch fix is permanent to airplanes 7 through 29 and with airplane 30 the fix is incorporated by adding additional plies of composite tape to the skin prior to going into the autoclave during the manufacturing process. The patch won't incur any weight or aerodynamic penalties. Boeing said they have no timetable for the resumption of manufacturing at Alenia.
What is a little disconcerting is that the stop work order was issued on June 23rd which is the same day that Boeing announced the postponement of first flight due to the side of body structural flaw. While Boeing announced the side of body issue, there was no mention of the wrinkling issue found in the fuselage barrels. Now according to an article in Bloomberg by Susanna Ray, Boeing spokeswoman said that “It didn’t have any material impact on the program in schedule or cost, so there was no reason to discuss it publicly.” Clearly Boeing has been burdened by bad news after bad news on this program and is trying to limit the amount of negative publicity on the 787 program. However with news like this coming out the way it did, Boeing's credibility has dropped another notch.
Flightblogger Report
Bloomberg 787 report
Other 787 News
Guy Norris is reporting that taxi test for ZA002 can conduct it's ground taxi tests as early as this weekend pending a safety walk down. Guy also said that this will be the last taxi tests conducted by any 787 until the side of body fix is installed on ZA001. Other than that the next major event to happen will be the installation and testing of the side of body fix on the static air frame (ZY997). The parts are supposedly on the way to Everett if not already there.
Guy's August 13th/14th update
Earlier this week Flightblogger outlined the location of the the aircraft in at Everett:
ZA001 - In the paint shop where it will undergo the installation of the parts to fix the structural issues.
ZA002 - Boeing flight line where it will conduct ground taxi tests and then will be prepped for installation of the fix.
ZA003 - In building 40-23 (747 assembly line) waiting for side of body fix
ZA004 - In building 40-26 (787 line) waiting for side of body fix
ZA005 - In building 40-26 behind ZA006 waiting for side of body fix
ZA006 - Boeing flight line waiting for side of body fix
ZA100 - In building 40-26 behind ZA005 continuing final assembly activities and waiting for side of body fix
ZA101 - In building 40-26 behind ZA100 starting final assembly activities
ZA102 - Wings, horizontal and vertical stabilizers and rear fuselage in back of building 40-26.
ZY997 - In building 40-22 undergoing repairs and waiting for side of body fix
ZY998 - In building 40-23 (747 assembly line) waiting for side of body fix
Read Getting Oriented
Monday, July 20, 2009
787 round up - July 20
I've been out of commission for a week or so but I with the 787 essentially out of commission as well until the side of body structural issue is resolved there won't be too much information coming out. I am hoping that Boeing will have more information on the 787 this Wednesday when they release 2nd quarter earnings and have their quarterly conference call.
Flightblogger reported a major line move with ZA005 going to the paint hangar and ZA006 going to the 767 final assembly line in building 40-24. ZA003 still appears to be on the 747 line in building 40-23. Curiously ZA004 is still in 40-26 in position 4 on the 787 line and ZA100 is still in position 1. At this point ZA100 should have been structurally assembled so I'm wondering if Boeing is holding ZA100 in position 1 until the structural reinforcements are manufactured and installed. Lastly Flightblogger also reported that the wings for ZA101, the second production 787 are in Everett. No word on when final assembly will begin on that airplane though there are now two open positions in the 787 final assembly line.
Flightblogger: Factory Shuffle
Guy Norris is back with a few updates too! To date Boeing has conducted tests on the Crew Alerting System on the ZA001 (EICAS) and the multifunction displays (MFD). These tests were conducted around Ju;y 9th.
Guy's July 9th 787 Update
Soon after those tests, Guy noted in a July 13th report that ground testing has slowed down considerably but tests were conducted on the stall warning system, electronic engine control interface connections, navigation radios, and verification of the airspeed indication system. All this took place on ZA001 while ZA002 had more engines and systems tests done on her.
Guy's July 13th 787 Update
Finally on July 16th Guy reported that testing seemed to have picked up a bit on both ZA001 and ZA002. ZA001 will check the speed of stowing the aircraft's movable surfaces as well as their position when they're moved. There was fuel system ground verification testing as well as flight control systems checks and functional check outs done last week. ZA002 saw high lift testing being done using the APU and later engine power.
Guy's July 16th 787 Update
Lastly, Flightglobal has a nice article related to the upcoming fight for the 2nd 787 production line. My feeling is that unless IAM, SPEEA, and the State of Washington all do something dramatic, this line will be in Charleston, SC. There will be some great advantages like being able to supply European, Middle Eastern and African customers from the East Coast while South Asian, Far East Asia, and Australia will be supplied from Everett. Another twist is that 787-9 could be in Charleston though with a smaller backlog compared to the 787-8 I don't see this as being cost efficient for Boeing.
Flightglobal article on the 2nd 787 assembly line
Flightblogger reported a major line move with ZA005 going to the paint hangar and ZA006 going to the 767 final assembly line in building 40-24. ZA003 still appears to be on the 747 line in building 40-23. Curiously ZA004 is still in 40-26 in position 4 on the 787 line and ZA100 is still in position 1. At this point ZA100 should have been structurally assembled so I'm wondering if Boeing is holding ZA100 in position 1 until the structural reinforcements are manufactured and installed. Lastly Flightblogger also reported that the wings for ZA101, the second production 787 are in Everett. No word on when final assembly will begin on that airplane though there are now two open positions in the 787 final assembly line.
Flightblogger: Factory Shuffle
Guy Norris is back with a few updates too! To date Boeing has conducted tests on the Crew Alerting System on the ZA001 (EICAS) and the multifunction displays (MFD). These tests were conducted around Ju;y 9th.
Guy's July 9th 787 Update
Soon after those tests, Guy noted in a July 13th report that ground testing has slowed down considerably but tests were conducted on the stall warning system, electronic engine control interface connections, navigation radios, and verification of the airspeed indication system. All this took place on ZA001 while ZA002 had more engines and systems tests done on her.
Guy's July 13th 787 Update
Finally on July 16th Guy reported that testing seemed to have picked up a bit on both ZA001 and ZA002. ZA001 will check the speed of stowing the aircraft's movable surfaces as well as their position when they're moved. There was fuel system ground verification testing as well as flight control systems checks and functional check outs done last week. ZA002 saw high lift testing being done using the APU and later engine power.
Guy's July 16th 787 Update
Lastly, Flightglobal has a nice article related to the upcoming fight for the 2nd 787 production line. My feeling is that unless IAM, SPEEA, and the State of Washington all do something dramatic, this line will be in Charleston, SC. There will be some great advantages like being able to supply European, Middle Eastern and African customers from the East Coast while South Asian, Far East Asia, and Australia will be supplied from Everett. Another twist is that 787-9 could be in Charleston though with a smaller backlog compared to the 787-8 I don't see this as being cost efficient for Boeing.
Flightglobal article on the 2nd 787 assembly line
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Flightblogger 787 Update for March 2009
Jon Ostrower just put out the first of two parts of a 787 Update.
He confirms an upcoming line move for the 787 that was reported here earlier. The main difference is that LN 3 (ZA003) will be moved out of the assembly hall in 40-26 and being sent to the 747 assembly line in building 40-23. ZA 001 (LN 1) should be making its way to the paint hanger within the next one week to 10 days after it undergoes the medium blow pressure test. The fact that Dreamliner 1 will soon be going over to the paint shop strongly suggests that this aircraft is factory complete. I believe that after painting, Dreamliner 1 will have it's fuel tanks undergo the aqueous wash before moving on to gauntlet testing.
Dreamliner 2 will be staying inside 40-26 undergoing completion and goes through power on after the line move. Jon says that Boeing is shifting it's emphasis to getting Dreamliner 1, Dreamliner 2, and Dreamliner 5 out the door and flying.
Jon is also reporting that first flight is still to be determined but feels that it occur by the end of June, 2009 though time margins are shrinking. The required gauntlet testing has been pushed out to early April.
Read Jon's article here.
He confirms an upcoming line move for the 787 that was reported here earlier. The main difference is that LN 3 (ZA003) will be moved out of the assembly hall in 40-26 and being sent to the 747 assembly line in building 40-23. ZA 001 (LN 1) should be making its way to the paint hanger within the next one week to 10 days after it undergoes the medium blow pressure test. The fact that Dreamliner 1 will soon be going over to the paint shop strongly suggests that this aircraft is factory complete. I believe that after painting, Dreamliner 1 will have it's fuel tanks undergo the aqueous wash before moving on to gauntlet testing.
Dreamliner 2 will be staying inside 40-26 undergoing completion and goes through power on after the line move. Jon says that Boeing is shifting it's emphasis to getting Dreamliner 1, Dreamliner 2, and Dreamliner 5 out the door and flying.
Jon is also reporting that first flight is still to be determined but feels that it occur by the end of June, 2009 though time margins are shrinking. The required gauntlet testing has been pushed out to early April.
Read Jon's article here.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
787 Back on Track?
While it is way too soon to say that the 787 program is back on track, recent milestones seem to indicate that Boeing is getting the 787 house (and assembly line) back in order. In the conference call on April 9th, Pat Shanahan had outlined goals or milestones for the 787 program for the remainder of the 2nd quarter of 2008. These include:
* Static airplane will move out of the factory at the end of April to make room for the third flying airplane. Parts for airplane 3 will arrive in Everett by the end of April
* Power on date moved to June 2008* Fatigue airplane will move to its test stand in June shortly followed by parts for airplane #4 to enter final assembly in June* By June 30th will have static and fatigue frames out at their test sites, final assembly begun on airplanes 3 and 4 in Everett, completing systems hardware airworthiness qualifications, finishing safety of flight testing for system hardware and software integration, and receiving flight test systems hardware.
From recent flight made by the LCF and the recent movement of the static test airframe from building 40-26 to 40-23 for the start of static tests, it looks like Boeing is on its way to accomplishing the first goal listed. Parts for Airplane 3 are in Everett and the static frame has been moved out of the 787 final assembly hall. Additionally the fatigue air frame has moved to the third assembly position and LN 2 has moved to the 2nd assembly position thus clearing the way for LN 3 to start final assembly.
While there is some assembly yet to be done on the static airplane, that will be done concurrently with the setup for the static tests. Those tests are expected to start this summer.
Boeing now has two months to get airplane 1 ready for power on and ground testing as well as start assembly of airplane 4 and all the while there are still lingering doubts about the program and if Boeing has been conservative enough with its schedule. As many analysts (and Boeing itself) have said, once they’ve powered on airplane 1 then a significant amount of risk would have been retired and the path should be clear (assuming no major issues that are uncovered during ground testing) to first flight. This is the key metric to watch for in the short term.
One thing that is working in Boeing’s favor (a lesson learned from the A380 delays) is that they and their risk sharing partners took advantage of the delays to wring out the systems in the test labs in Seattle, reduce the travel work sent by the suppliers, and maturing the systems hardware and software (mainly the flight control software). This will go a long way in having a mature airplane at first flight as well as make progress on non-flight testing certification tests and deliverables for the FAA/EASA certification.
Now one month does not a trend make and the real indication of the health of the program will be realized on June 30th. If Boeing provides customers, analysts and shareholders with short term goals for the quarter and it achieves those goals then Boeing management will have come a long way to repairing their image and reputation.
Now I think Boeing was a little too conservative in their time line and they could perhaps achieve first flight earlier. I do think that power on will be achieved by June 30th and that power on testing as well as ground testing and taxi test could take two months. That takes you to August 30th. Boeing can then have first flight in early September...late in the third quarter. Now assuming a 10 month flight testing program and certification brings the time to early July 2009…2nd quarter of 2009 for first delivery and EIS as opposed to 3rd quarter 2009. Is this achievable? Sure but at the same time Boeing has to mature the systems with aggressive testing and carefully manage the production ramp up.
Boeing needs to give Wall Street, customers, and shareholders detailed quarterly goals and milestones that they need to meet in order for the confidence to be rebuilt in the company and in the program. These goals and milestones shouldn’t be for just Boeing itself but also for the partners and suppliers. Already there are reports that Vought will be starting to ship fully stuffed rear fuselages (section 47/48) sometime between June and September (more likely September and with that section will be from Dreamliner #6). Certainly with Boeing buying out Vought’s share of Global Aeronautica, it’ll have more control over what happens there but will allow Boeing to continuously look over Vought’s shoulder.
Going Forward
While in the short term Boeing has made some strides to recovery, there are risks that remain as well as questions about the 787.
Flight Testing and Certification – After power on is accomplished Boeing needs to hope for a relatively smooth flight tests of the airplane if they are to keep to schedule. What will also be critical is Boeing’s change incorporation program. When issues crop up during testing the changes and fixes must be incorporated back from the planes that were built all the way back through the supply chain to the planes that are just starting the production process. How Boeing and the supply base handle all that is going to remain critical to getting production moving. For that reason Boeing won’t be producing 787s in any great numbers until almost all the test flights and certification paperwork is done. Rumors were going around that the FAA is going to force Boeing to do more certification work then previously agreed and that it would mean that EIS wouldn’t occur until 2010. The German magazine that reported this said that Boeing would announce a fourth delay due to the extra certification work in mid May. Both the FAA and Boeing denied the story and there hasn’t been any further news on that. Still issues could come up during flight testing that might force the FAA to ask Boeing to do further modifications and tests to give them satisfaction. At least worries of cold soak tests are put to rest.
Production – With 25 planned deliveries in 2009 Boeing’s big worry after flight testing is ramping up production and catching up with deliveries. Pre-delay, Boeing was planning to deliver 112 787s between May 2008 and December 2009. Now they’re planning on only 25. Assuming that they stay on that schedule they will be behind by 87 airplanes. That’s roughly 4 airplanes per month. Boeing needs to find someway of making up those 87 deliveries. Boeing is starting to plan out a gradual production increase to approximately 10/month by 2012 but how that will resolve the backlog is unclear. Production is also key for future orders as Boeing’s salespeople need to give a time frame to potential (and current customers) about when they can expect their airplanes given these delays. That’s going to be a factor of planned production rates as well as what the suppliers can reasonably be expected to produce.
Weight – Before the delays took the stage as the main issue, the 787s 2% weight gain (about 5000 lbs.). We have not had an update on this issue though previously Boeing said that they expect that the 787 will meet its weight goals by airplane #7. Whether that is still going to be achieved is unclear and good represent risk on only to the -8 but also to the other variants. Already there have been reports that the -9 variant is also overweight and that the fix to the center wing box added some (though negligible) weight gain. Through static, fatigue and flight testing Boeing can identify over engineered structural parts and target them for weight savings. What remains to be seen is how fast those changes can be incorporated into all the produced airplanes if at all. The delay may make it hard for Boeing to achieve the target weight for airplane # 7.
Future Variants – Boeing has pushed back the service entry for the larger -9 variant to 2012, a two year delay and pushed the -3 to an undetermined sate beyond that. Clearly Boeing is looking to make up time to most customers by delivering as many of the -8 as possible (to date they have 646 -8 orders, 207 -9 orders and 43 -3 orders). Also to be determined is the specs and EIS date for the -10. Boeing has put this off for several reasons: 1) They want to know what they’re competing with in terms of the A350-900 and 2) They need to get flight test data in order to see to help design the -10. When they offer the -10 Boeing can be well poised for the A340/777-200ER replacement market. In my opinion an EIS for the -10 cannot be reasonably expected before 2014 at the earliest.
On April 9th Boeing execs gave us details of the delay as well as milestones that they have set of themselves and the program. One thing that was noticeably different was the greater detail this time around. They gave goals that they intend to accomplish between April 9th and June 30th and it would be expected that around early July they will probably give goals that they intend to accomplish for the 3rd quarter of 2008 as well as an overview of what they did and did not accomplish in the 2nd quarter. This transparency goes a long way starting the rebuild confidence in the program and management. It’s not their yet but the fact that they have already accomplished some of the goals that they laid out in the April 9th conference call gives them a foundation to work on.
* Static airplane will move out of the factory at the end of April to make room for the third flying airplane. Parts for airplane 3 will arrive in Everett by the end of April
* Power on date moved to June 2008* Fatigue airplane will move to its test stand in June shortly followed by parts for airplane #4 to enter final assembly in June* By June 30th will have static and fatigue frames out at their test sites, final assembly begun on airplanes 3 and 4 in Everett, completing systems hardware airworthiness qualifications, finishing safety of flight testing for system hardware and software integration, and receiving flight test systems hardware.
From recent flight made by the LCF and the recent movement of the static test airframe from building 40-26 to 40-23 for the start of static tests, it looks like Boeing is on its way to accomplishing the first goal listed. Parts for Airplane 3 are in Everett and the static frame has been moved out of the 787 final assembly hall. Additionally the fatigue air frame has moved to the third assembly position and LN 2 has moved to the 2nd assembly position thus clearing the way for LN 3 to start final assembly.
While there is some assembly yet to be done on the static airplane, that will be done concurrently with the setup for the static tests. Those tests are expected to start this summer.
Boeing now has two months to get airplane 1 ready for power on and ground testing as well as start assembly of airplane 4 and all the while there are still lingering doubts about the program and if Boeing has been conservative enough with its schedule. As many analysts (and Boeing itself) have said, once they’ve powered on airplane 1 then a significant amount of risk would have been retired and the path should be clear (assuming no major issues that are uncovered during ground testing) to first flight. This is the key metric to watch for in the short term.
One thing that is working in Boeing’s favor (a lesson learned from the A380 delays) is that they and their risk sharing partners took advantage of the delays to wring out the systems in the test labs in Seattle, reduce the travel work sent by the suppliers, and maturing the systems hardware and software (mainly the flight control software). This will go a long way in having a mature airplane at first flight as well as make progress on non-flight testing certification tests and deliverables for the FAA/EASA certification.
Now one month does not a trend make and the real indication of the health of the program will be realized on June 30th. If Boeing provides customers, analysts and shareholders with short term goals for the quarter and it achieves those goals then Boeing management will have come a long way to repairing their image and reputation.
Now I think Boeing was a little too conservative in their time line and they could perhaps achieve first flight earlier. I do think that power on will be achieved by June 30th and that power on testing as well as ground testing and taxi test could take two months. That takes you to August 30th. Boeing can then have first flight in early September...late in the third quarter. Now assuming a 10 month flight testing program and certification brings the time to early July 2009…2nd quarter of 2009 for first delivery and EIS as opposed to 3rd quarter 2009. Is this achievable? Sure but at the same time Boeing has to mature the systems with aggressive testing and carefully manage the production ramp up.
Boeing needs to give Wall Street, customers, and shareholders detailed quarterly goals and milestones that they need to meet in order for the confidence to be rebuilt in the company and in the program. These goals and milestones shouldn’t be for just Boeing itself but also for the partners and suppliers. Already there are reports that Vought will be starting to ship fully stuffed rear fuselages (section 47/48) sometime between June and September (more likely September and with that section will be from Dreamliner #6). Certainly with Boeing buying out Vought’s share of Global Aeronautica, it’ll have more control over what happens there but will allow Boeing to continuously look over Vought’s shoulder.
Going Forward
While in the short term Boeing has made some strides to recovery, there are risks that remain as well as questions about the 787.
Flight Testing and Certification – After power on is accomplished Boeing needs to hope for a relatively smooth flight tests of the airplane if they are to keep to schedule. What will also be critical is Boeing’s change incorporation program. When issues crop up during testing the changes and fixes must be incorporated back from the planes that were built all the way back through the supply chain to the planes that are just starting the production process. How Boeing and the supply base handle all that is going to remain critical to getting production moving. For that reason Boeing won’t be producing 787s in any great numbers until almost all the test flights and certification paperwork is done. Rumors were going around that the FAA is going to force Boeing to do more certification work then previously agreed and that it would mean that EIS wouldn’t occur until 2010. The German magazine that reported this said that Boeing would announce a fourth delay due to the extra certification work in mid May. Both the FAA and Boeing denied the story and there hasn’t been any further news on that. Still issues could come up during flight testing that might force the FAA to ask Boeing to do further modifications and tests to give them satisfaction. At least worries of cold soak tests are put to rest.
Production – With 25 planned deliveries in 2009 Boeing’s big worry after flight testing is ramping up production and catching up with deliveries. Pre-delay, Boeing was planning to deliver 112 787s between May 2008 and December 2009. Now they’re planning on only 25. Assuming that they stay on that schedule they will be behind by 87 airplanes. That’s roughly 4 airplanes per month. Boeing needs to find someway of making up those 87 deliveries. Boeing is starting to plan out a gradual production increase to approximately 10/month by 2012 but how that will resolve the backlog is unclear. Production is also key for future orders as Boeing’s salespeople need to give a time frame to potential (and current customers) about when they can expect their airplanes given these delays. That’s going to be a factor of planned production rates as well as what the suppliers can reasonably be expected to produce.
Weight – Before the delays took the stage as the main issue, the 787s 2% weight gain (about 5000 lbs.). We have not had an update on this issue though previously Boeing said that they expect that the 787 will meet its weight goals by airplane #7. Whether that is still going to be achieved is unclear and good represent risk on only to the -8 but also to the other variants. Already there have been reports that the -9 variant is also overweight and that the fix to the center wing box added some (though negligible) weight gain. Through static, fatigue and flight testing Boeing can identify over engineered structural parts and target them for weight savings. What remains to be seen is how fast those changes can be incorporated into all the produced airplanes if at all. The delay may make it hard for Boeing to achieve the target weight for airplane # 7.
Future Variants – Boeing has pushed back the service entry for the larger -9 variant to 2012, a two year delay and pushed the -3 to an undetermined sate beyond that. Clearly Boeing is looking to make up time to most customers by delivering as many of the -8 as possible (to date they have 646 -8 orders, 207 -9 orders and 43 -3 orders). Also to be determined is the specs and EIS date for the -10. Boeing has put this off for several reasons: 1) They want to know what they’re competing with in terms of the A350-900 and 2) They need to get flight test data in order to see to help design the -10. When they offer the -10 Boeing can be well poised for the A340/777-200ER replacement market. In my opinion an EIS for the -10 cannot be reasonably expected before 2014 at the earliest.
On April 9th Boeing execs gave us details of the delay as well as milestones that they have set of themselves and the program. One thing that was noticeably different was the greater detail this time around. They gave goals that they intend to accomplish between April 9th and June 30th and it would be expected that around early July they will probably give goals that they intend to accomplish for the 3rd quarter of 2008 as well as an overview of what they did and did not accomplish in the 2nd quarter. This transparency goes a long way starting the rebuild confidence in the program and management. It’s not their yet but the fact that they have already accomplished some of the goals that they laid out in the April 9th conference call gives them a foundation to work on.
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