First GE powered 787-10 to be delivered to Etihad Airways on Oct. 30

Etihad's 1st 787-10 photo by Mike Cassidy 

Etihad's 1st 787-10 photo by Mike Cassidy

Abu Dhabi based Etihad Airways will take the first 787-10 powered by GE's GEnx-1B engines on October 30, 2018.  This aircraft is ZC061 (LN 743, A6-BMA).  Three days later on November 2 United Airlines will take delivery of it's first 787-10 ZC037 (LN 763, N14001) also powered by the GE powerplants.  Boeing will also deliver one of three former 787-10 test aircraft to Singapore Airlines on November 5th.  ZC002 (LN 565, 9V-SCG) flew about 50 test flights in support of certification flight testing for the 787-10 program.  There hasn't been any announcement of the GE powered 787-10 receiving it's type authorization certificate from the FAA which allow deliveries to proceed but typically the final certification is issued a few days prior to first delivery. 

United Airlines' 1st 787-10 flying to Everett photo by Mike Cassidy

Lastly, Bloomberg is reporting that Lufthansa is talking to Boeing about an order for the 787 which would be huge.  The catch is that Boeing may have to buy their old A340s which essentially has little to 0 secondary market. Still, if Boeing were to sell the 787 to Lufthansa, it would be the third major wide body aircraft sale to the German flag carrier in the last decade (747-8I and 777-9 being the first 2) and would mean that the airline would have ordered all three of Boeing's current wide body offerings.

First 787-10 rolls out of final assembly in Charleston

On February 1, 2017 Boeing rolled out the first 787-10 Dreamliner from it's final assembly facility in North Charleston, SC.  ZC001 (LN 528, N528ZC) was taken to Bay 1 of the newly opened paint hangar where it will get it's coat of paint and perhaps get some ground testing done as well.  It will be powered by Roll Royce's Trent 1000-TEN engines currently undergoing certification testing on the fourth 787-8, ZA004 (LN 004, N7874). This aircraft just recently returned from Victorville, Ca and is now flying around Colorado Springs.  Given the increased tempo of test flights with the new Trent engines, it seems that Boeing is gearing up for the B1 flight very soon.

The 1st 787-9 conducted its B1 flight 24 days after being rolled out of Everett's 40-26 building.  Right now preliminary information indicates a flight for ZC001 around March but I suspect that it could take place late this month though this date is all dependent on the ground gauntlet testing that is required prior to the first flight.

Still the -10 is a simple stretch of the 787-9 and has 95% commonality with its smaller sibling thus this initial testing should go smoothly given Boeing's experience with building and flying the 787-9.  My prediction for a range of first flight dates is between February 21 and March 7.

In the meanwhile Boeing should begin assembly on ZC036 (LN 548) around the third week of February.  This will be the 2nd 787-10 to fly and the first equipped with GEnx-1B engines. To me it seems that Boeing is executing extremely well on the 787-10 thus far but the year long test flight program is still lie ahead which can uncover unknown unknowns.

Trent 1000 TEN flies on 787 as Boeing deliveries now stand at 495

For the first time a Rolls Royce Trent 1000 TEN (thrust, efficiency and new technology) flew on a 787 that it is meant to power.  The 4th 787-8 flight test aircraft ZA004 (LN 004, N7874) flew with the engine for the first time today.  The newest member of the Trent 1000 family is to make up for performance shortfalls in the earlier Trent 1000 engines and is meant to power all three 787 variants with a thrust of up to 78,000 lbs.  According to Rolls Royce, the Trent 1000 TEN "offers proven new technology; its features include a new compressor system scaled from the Trent XWB engine program and a new turbine design to allow extra thrust. Unique to the TEN is a modulated air system which optimizes the secondary air flow within the engine using a valve system with no moving parts, a robust system that delivers performance benefits. External systems have also been improved and re-designed."

The engine should be certified for use on the 787-10 before the types first flight early next year.  Speaking of the 787-10, While parts for the first aircraft are in position 0 in Charleston, it won't start final assembly in position 1 until Dec. 13th, next Tuesday.  Other parts are en-route to Charleston, namely the section 41 forward fuselage.

Lastly, there was a flurry of 787 deliveries yesterday as Boeing delivered 4 787-9s to customers including British Airways, Hainan Airlines, Aeromexico and Xiamen Airlines which picked up it's 1st of 6 787-9 on order.  Boeing has delivered 6 787s this month so far, 132 this year and 495 since program deliveries began.  ZA674 (LN 513, N793AV) for Avianca is to be delivered on Dec. 20th and will be the 500th 787 delivered to a customer.  This will also be the last delivery in 2016 for Boeing which should end the year with 137 787 deliveries - 35 787-8 and 102 787-9s will have been delivered.  Of the remaining 5 787s to be delivered, 3 have had their customer flight and the other 2 will have their C-1 flights next Tuesday, Dec. 13th.  I expect Boeing to shut down for the holidays around Dec. 23rd.

787 program takes another financial hit as program deliveries continue to meet expectations, near term deliveries in question due to thrust reverser issue.

	Number
Testing Complete	3
To be assembled in Everett	172
To be assembled in Charleston	121
Parts Arriving	6
Undergoing final assembly	10
Storage	0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work	0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work	5
Pre-Flight Prep	12
Production Testing	8
Non Customer Flight Tests	1
Ready for Delivery	0
Donation	3
Delivered	446
TOTAL	787

Near term deliveries of the 787 look to slow down due to unspecified issues with the thrust reversers affecting both GE and Rolls Royce powered aircraft.  A source has indicated that this is not a fleet wide problem but concerns a batch of thrust reversers that are installed on current 787s that are on the flightline or that are currently being assembled.  New thrust reversers without the issue have been manufactured and are being installed on several aircraft on the flightline including ones for Hainan, JAL and Scoot as those aircraft have their engines removed.  I do expect that these aircraft should deliver before the end of the year and that this issue should not affect final delivery numbers though it could push deliveries to the fourth quarter.

Just when followers of the 787 program thought that the program was just starting to emerge from the financial black hole that was created, it was sucked right back in with Boeing's announcement of an incredibly high charge of $847 mm against 2Q16 earnings.  The charge is due to inability by Boeing to sell the last two original 787-8 flight test aircraft, namely LN 004 (ZA004, N7874) and LN 005 (ZA005, N787FT).  The cost of refurbishing them to certification standards is too high compared to where they can sell them.  This charge was in addition to the charges that Boeing has taken on the 747-8 program ($814 mm) and the KC-46A program ($393 mm).  Boeing will be reclassifying the unit costs associated for these two airplanes from inventory to R&D expense

So what is to become of the two flight test airplanes?  Well ZA004 is currently performing certification testing for the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 TEN.  Once that is complete I expect that this airplane will be donated to a museum. ZA005 flew back to Everett in 2013 and appeared to have some re-work and change incorporation performed on it.  Many of the movable flight surfaces were taken off as were the engines. However, the aircraft has remained in that stripped down state for the more than 2 years.  Now that Boeing is taking this charge I expect that the aircraft will be further stripped for usable spare parts that will probably have to refurbished.  The airframe will probably be destroyed, perhaps Boeing use this airframe as a demonstration on how to dispose of a carbon composite fuselage in a way that is environmentally friendly as recycling CRFP aircraft parts on a large scale has never been done.  This could give Boeing an opportunity to develop proper disposal techniques.

 
Getting back to the 787 production story, Boeing delivered 14 787s (3 787-8 and 11 787-9) in July including one early build 787-8 (ZD006, LN 14, ET-ATK) for Ethiopian Airlines.  Boeing has been making very good progress in getting these airplanes ready for delivery though it's taken the better part of 5 to 6 years for each.  Boeing is slated to deliver 3 more early build 787s (one each in August, September and November) this year with one already in paint and a second one being prepped for its first flight. Other notable deliveries include the first 2 787-9s that were directly purchased by Hainan (still listed as unidentified on Boeing's order and delivery website) and Qatar's 30th and final 787-8 that they have on order.  I'm still waiting for them to exercise their options.  Any day now U-Turn Al.

With the 14 deliveries in July, Boeing has delivered 82 787s this year through the end of July and 445 since program deliveries began.  There are 309 787-8s in operation and 136 787-9s flying. With one additional delivery made this month, Boeing is 54 deliveries away from achieving 500 customer deliveries.  This is something they can achieve by the middle to end of December as long as there aren't any delays in current delivery schedule.  This equates to roughly 11 deliveries per month for the next 5 months.  Boeing has been doing well on that account for the past 3 months.

In terms of production, the two production facilities are still turning out the aircraft as the planned rate of 12 per month.  The efficiency ratio last month was at 0.79 which was driven mainly by higher deliveries from Everett which had a pretty good efficiency ratio of 0.67.  Charleston had a respectable ratio of 1.0.  It should be noted that the one early build 787-8 is included in the calculation of Everett's efficiency ratio.

Looking forward, Boeing was planning for only 9 787 deliveries in August but with the thrust reverser issue it will probably be lower, around 5-6.  One of those deliveries with, ZA155 (LN4457, CN-RGT) for Royal Air Maroc, has already been made.  ZB368 (LN 396, G-ZBKG) a 787-9 for British Airways is finally set to be delivered at the end of this month after being grounded due to issues with Zodiac in delivering the interiors to Everett for installation.  Another early build 787-8, ZD005, (LN 13, ET-ATJ) should also be delivered by the end of this month.  I can only attribute the lower delivery number to the typical August slow down for the summer as well as the aforementioned issue with the thrust reversers.  I do see the delivery rate picking back up in September to catch up to the needed 11/month delivery rate that Boeing needs to make for the remainder of the year.

I'll be following this post with another one reviewing Boeing's comments on the 787 during the 2nd quarter as well as prospects for a rate increase by the end of this decade.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2016 Projected Operator Deliveries
2016 Projected Customer Deliveries
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries