Farnborough Air Show 2016 - Day 1

Here's a summary of today's order action from Farnborough

Boeing

Donghai Airlines - 25 x 737 Max 8, 5 x 787-9 (MoU)

Standard Chartered - 10 x 737-800 (Firm)

Xiamen Airlines - 30 x 737 Max 200 (MoU)

Airbus

ALC - 3 x A350-900, 1 x A321 (Firm)
Virgin Atlantic Airways - 8 x A350-1000 (Firm)
Jetstar Pacific - 10 x A320 (MoU)
Air Cote D'Ivoire - 1 x A320neo (Firm)
Arkia - 4 x A330-900neo (Firm)

COMAC
China Aircraft Leasing - 60 x ARJ21 (MoU)
AVIC - 30 x ARJ21 (MoU)

Embraer
Arkia 6 x E195-E2 (MoU)
Kalstar 5 x  E195-E2 (Firm)
Nordic Aviation Capital 4 x E190-E2 (Firm)
Japan Air Lines 1 x E190 (Firm)

Mitsubishi

Rockton - 10 x MRJ90 (MoU)

Boeing makes a huge widebody splash at Dubai 2013; 777X launched, 787-10 gets more orders

Boeing Rendering of the 777-8X and 777-9X

 

Boeing made good on expectations of a huge splash of orders at Dubai 2013 today by booking 259 orders and commitments for the 777X part 2 of Boeing's two prong strategy against Airbus' A350.

The 777X is meant to directly challenge the A350-1000 (Boeing says the 777-8X is a direct challenger to the A350-1000) and any potential stretch of this aircraft to over 400 seats.  Emirates came in big with an order for 115 777-9X and 35 777-8X, the later is really an extended range version of the 777-300ER.  Etihad ordered 17 777-9X and 8 777-8X while Qatar signed an LoI for 50 777-9X.  What is unknown at this time is weather the Etihad and Emirates orders are firm or not.

Additionally Etihad ordered the 787-10 taking orders for the type to 120 and total orders for the 787 family to 1,012.  It does seem that this order may be firm.  Along with the 41 787-9s on order, Etihad is on track to be the largest airline customer of the 787.  ILFC is the largest 787 customer with 74 airplanes on order with 5 already delivered.

Boeing wasn't done as FlyDubai also went big and ordered 100 737-8 MAX and 11 737-800.  Overall a huge day for Boeing and I suspect that it's not over for them.  I expect that Boeing will more orders to announce from non Gulf carriers and may include Cathay Pacific as another customer for the 777X.

Airbus tried to make a splash but really came up with another yawn order of 50 A380 for Emirates.  The A380 has a large exposure to just one carrier and truly doesn't bode well for the aircraft as it has unable to penetrate other airlines and diversify its customer base.  The re-sale market for this aircraft is extremely limited.

After Day 1 at Dubai 2013 here's the scoreboard:

Airbus

Emirates - 50 x A380 (yawn)
Etihad - 40 x A350-900, 10 x A350-1000, 10 x A320 NEO, 26 x A321 NEO + 30 options on A350 and A320/A321 NEO
Qatar - 5 x A330-200F (8 options)


Boeing

Emirates - 35 x 777-8X, 115 x 777-9X + 50 options
Etihad - 8 x 777-8X, 17 x 777-9X, 30 x 787-10, 1 x 777F + 12 x 777X options/purchase rights, 12 x 787-10 options/purchase rights, 2 x 777F options/purchase rights
FlyDubai - 11 x 737-800, 100 x 737-8 MAX
Lufthansa - 34 x 777-9X
Qatar - 50 x 777-9X (LoI)

Aspire Aviation: 787-8 still overweight, 787-9 is not

In a wide ranging article, Aspire Aviation revealed today several newsworthy aspects of the 787s program and the future of the variants of the base 787-8 aircraft.

First off the article addresses the 787-8 status.  While the program is now well into  production and delivery of the base 787-8 model, Boeing is planning to hit the 5/month milestone on November. It is hoped that the ramp up to 7/month will occur in March/April 2013. Assuming that Boeing is producing 5 787 for the first 5 months of 2013 and 7 for the last 7 months (there's a lag between the increased production rate and delivery of those airplanes at the increase rate thus I'm assuming that the 10/rate airplanes won't be delivered until January 2014) Boeing can deliver 84 787s not including 787s from the EMC.

The weight of the787-8 is still an issue with the current production block still at about 4 tonnes overweight according to Aspire's sources.  It was hoped that by the 90th aircraft (LN 90) that the weight would be down to the original spec weight but this appears to have slipped. It is unknown when Boeing will achieve the original spec weight though the culprit seems to be a shortage of parts that are weight optimized for both the 787-9 and the 787-8.

Speaking of the 787-9 this variant looks to be doing extremely well from a weight and development point of view.  The word is that the first 787-9s will achieve weight targets set by Boeing with further production blocks coming in underweight by around 2%.  This is all a result of the testing done on the 787-8 and understanding what was over-engineered.  At some point there will be weight savings that will be put back into the 787-8 but it does appear it will take a while.  ZB001 (LN 126) will be the first 787-9 that is to be assembled and it does look like that this should take place starting around February or March.  What is unclear at this point is how many 787-9s will be part of the testing and certification program. I don't think it will be 6 but perhaps 2-3 airframes. Already Boeing suppliers are producing some of the fuselage sections of the 787-9.

Aspire's report also touched upon the 787-10X which is now rumored to be targeted for an authority to offer by the Boeing Board of Directors as early as this month.  The 2nd stretch variant will build upon the 787-9 using the same wing and able to fit 323 passengers in a 3 class layout.  This model along with the 787-9 can effectively kill the Airbus A330-200 and A330-300 while also severely hurting the sales of the A350-800, A350-900 and even the A350-1000 all of which are under severe schedule pressure as it is.  There are numerous European, Asian and Middle Eastern customers that are salivating at the thought of the 787-10 and I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing has a few surprise orders in hand by the end of the year for this model if it has the authority to offer.  Aspire's speculates that with a launch late this year, Boeing will have a firm configuration by the end of 2nd quarter of 2014. roll out of the test aircraft in 2017 and EIS in 2018/2019 though I would think that with a rollout in 2017 Boeing should have the ability to achieve EIS in 2018 at the latest since it is a straight forward stretch variant. It shouldn't take 2 years to test and certify a simple stretch variant of the 787-9.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 3

Farnborough 2012 is starting to wind down though I do expect one more big order from United Airlines to come through tomorrow.  Rumor has it that this will be for the 737 MAX and the order wll be announced in Chicago. I'll still list it here as part of the running order totals from Farnborough.

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
CALC - 28 x A320, 8 X A321 - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
CIT Group - 5 x A330- Firm
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU

ATR
Air Lease Corp - 2 x ATR 72-600
LAO Airlines - 2 x ATR 72-600
Nordic Aviation - 1 x ATR 42-600
TransAsia - 8 x ATR 72-600

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
Avolon - 10 x 737 MAX 8, 5 x 737 MAX 9, 10 x 737-800 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Mitsubishi
SkyWest Airlines - 100 x MRJ - MoU

Sukhoi
Interjet - 5 x SSJ-100

Farnborough 2012 - Day 2

More 737 MAX activity from Boeing but Airbus and Cathay Pacific make a little noise as well today.For all the hype surroundng "Boeing's Show", it really is a slow.

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

787 production continues; Boeing draw first blood in Dubai

With Dubai 2011 underway, Boeing has drawn first blood with a huge order from Emirates.

But first some 787 tidbits.

Boeing sent two of it's 787 test planes on international marketing trips. ZA001 is flying to various 787 customer destinations to show the aircraft around the world. First stop is New Zealand where Air New Zealand is to induct the first 787-9 into it's fleet in a little over 2 years from now. It will go on to Australia from there where Jetstar and QANTAS will take delivery starting in 2013. ZA003 is now flying with a full passenger interior with the test workstations and other flight test equipment removed. It also is sporting a new paint job which is a hybrid of the Dreamliner livery that Boeing painted on ZA001.

Meanwhile, back in Boeing has pushed another 787 out the door and has reallocated several 787 to other airlines. L/N 50 and L/N 51 are currently on the final assembly floor and each has been reallocated to United and ANA respectively . They were to have gone to Ethiopian and LAN but were changed for unknown reasons. With the start of assembly on L/N 51 Boeing is on it's way of 2.5 787s per month with the target of 3.5 to occur sometime in early 2012.

One of the early build 787s appears to have completed the change incorporation and re-work. That airplane is L/N 23 (ZA177) which is destined for Japan Airlines. The aircraft took a check test flight on Nov. 11th and was ferried back to Everett on the 13th. It still does not have a customer interior but that work will be done in Everett along with testing of the interior and then Boeing and customer test flights prior to delivery. Given that work, Boeing can deliver this plane to JAL by the end of December or early January, 2012 depending on the remaining certification activities that need to be completed on the GEnx-1B powered 787. I am still maintaining my short term view that Boeing should be able to deliver 6 more 787 in December (no November deliveries). Most if not all these deliveries will be later production airplanes for ANA with a later production GEnx airplane added in.

Speaking of which, ZA006 continues F&R and ETOPS testing. Last word from Boeing was that GEnx-1B testing was 95% complete so I do anticipate that Boeing can complete all certification testing by the end of this month will the aim of having first delivery by the end of December to either JAL or Air India.





Dubai 2011


The Dubai Air Show got of to a bang with a huge order by Emirates for 50 777-300ERs. The bang not only came in the size of the order $18bn at list prices, or the fact that this is Boeing's largest commercial aircraft order by value or that it will make Emirates the largest user of the 777. The big bang came in the message this order sent to Airbus. It has been no secret that the market really hasn't accepted the A350-1000 as a viable competitor to the 777-300ER. The market response after launching the A350 coupled with the feeble attempt by Airbus and Rolls Royce to improve the aircraft earlier this year and the 2 year delay (with possibly more delays to come) has angered customers for the airplane, namely Qatar and Emirates. Thus this order at the start of the airshow was meant as a message to Airbus about the status of the A350-1000. Additionally, the A350-1000 is barely a better airplane than the Boeing offering but with the proposed 777-8X/9X (on which Emirates has been working closely with Boeing) thus this latest order would allow Emirates to easily introduce the next iteration of the 777 as this latest order is delivered towards the end of the decade. I wouldn't be surprised if Emirates has a conversion feature in the contract that allows them to convert to the newer model after Boeing launches the airplane with delivery aimed for 2020.


Airbus did get into the order column with an order for 50 A320NEOs from ALAFCO. This same lessor announced today that they sold 6 or their 787 orders to Oman Air. So this order with Oman is really a non-order order. Boeing is still adding more MoUs for the 737 MAX. The count is 700 airplanes spread across 9 customers with only American Airlines the only named customer of those 9. I don't expect any of these MoUs to be firmed before the end of the year but most if not all should be firmed by the end of 1st quarter 2012 in addition to any new customers that would have signed on by then.


Dubai 2011 Totals


Airbus


ALAFCO - 50 x A320NEO (+30 options)

Boeing

Emirates - 50 x 777-300ER (+20 options)

777NG possiblities

One of the most important decision facing Boeing is what to do to respond to the A350. Specifically, what will Boeing's answer be to the A350-900 and the A350-1000. The A350-800 is sized for the 787-9 market (both carry roughly the same number of passengers).

Airbus is targeting the 777-200 sized market with the A350-900 and the 777-300ER market with the A350-1000. Boeing is waiting to see what Airbus does with these two models before deciding on a future improvements on the 777 or an entirely new model in this class.

From my discussions it seems that Boeing is leaning towards a package of extensive improvements of the 777 line. These improvements may include weight saving measures throughout the aircraft, a new composite wing, an external re-profiling of the exterior lines and improvements in the GE90 using experienced gleaned from the GEnx program. The last proposed improvement is addressed by Saj Ahmad in an article he wrote:

Engines May Hold Key to Future 777

At the end of the day it does seem that Boeing is in the driver's seat because it can respond to the threat of the A350 with a lot of flexibility.

Paris 2009: Boeing to offer KC-777 (& KC-767), possible 777 revamp w/ 787-10 being looked at

Some musing coming out of Paris today.

First of all, and not entirely unexpected, Boeing will be offering up both the 767 and the 777 (presumably the 777F) for the USAF tanker competition against the EADS KC-330 tanker. Thus the tanker saga which has been years in the making continues to get interesting. It'll get it's own Lifetime TV movie by the time it's all done.

Next, Boeing's Commercial Airplanes Chief, Scott Carson, commented on the 777 future and said that Boeing might look at re-winging the popular twin in order to get more range in order to remain competitive with the A350 (specifically the A350-900 and A350-1000). Now it all comes to costs of redesigning the wing vs an all new design to supplant the 777 and remain competitive with the A350. Carson also did not rule out a larger 787 (the 787-10) which would seat about 310 people in a three class configuration. This aircraft would compete with the A350-900 while a re-winged 777-300ER would compete against the A350-1000. Before any of this can happen though, Boeing has to get the 787-8 into the air and into flight testing which will be the subject of another post.