Boeing looking to deliver large number of 787s in 3rd quarter.

As we get closer to the end of July, Boeing is starting a drive to deliver as many as 135 787s this year and key to that will be deliveries for the third quarter. To that end it appears that Boeing will try to deliver a total of 13 787s in July. Most of the aircraft to be delivered this month already have their customer flights (2 have yet to fly a customer acceptance flight). The 300th 787 to be delivered will be amongst this group of 13 airplanes and currently it appears that ZB079 (LN286, A6-BLC) for Etihad will have the honors but that may change. The delivery drive won’t end there as Boeing is planning to deliver around 18 to 20 787s in August (some of which were deferred deliveries from earlier months) and 12 to 14 in September. If all the 787s projected for delivery are actually delivered in the 3rd quarter, we can see 45 787s going into customer hands in the quarter which is a huge number. Deliveries are expected to tail off in the fourth quarter, particularly in the last month and a half of 2015 with no more than 27 possible 787 deliveries.

This is a large number of deliveries and this is a plan as of now but it is something that Boeing is attempting to accomplish over the next two and half months. The key will be production flights to prepare for the onslaught of 787 deliveries in August. So far only a few 787s that are slated for delivery in August have flown but I do believe that will change over the next couple of weeks. 18 deliveries in one month are possible for the 787 program and it is something they had accomplished during Dec. 2014. Again a good indicator is the number of B-1 flights that take place between now and around August 20th.

For July, Boeing has delivered 5 787s so far with an additional 8 scheduled for delivery over the next 10 days. Air New Zealand will receive one of the 787-9 test aircraft that had under gone re-work and rebuilt to production standards. This aircraft, ZB002 (LN133, ZK-NZD) will be the 298th 787 delivered. After that there are 4 787s that are tentatively scheduled to deliver on July 27th. They are ZB079 (LN286, A6-BLC) for Etihad, ZB536 (LN303, VN-A861) for Vietnam Airlines, ZB410 (LN319, JA871A) for ANA and ZB173 (LN324, N45956) for United Airlines. Note that all these deliveries are 787-9s. As I mentioned, I believe that ZB536 will probably be the 300th but we’ll have to see. Boeing should close out 787 deliveries for July 2015 with ZB558 (LN323, C-FNOE) for Air Canada on July 29th which is also its first 787-9 and ZA142 (LN322, JA840A) a 787-8 for ANA. There were two 787-8 that were scheduled for delivery to Kenya Airways (ZA662 (LN307, 5Y-KZH) and ZA663 (LN317, 5Y-KZJ)) which are now scheduled for a late August delivery.

Finally it looks like Crystal Cruises is picking up some 787s according to this article in USA Today. My sources say that they may be picking up 3 787-8s from the terrible teens (they have a variable number that starts with ZD). The only ones that make logical choice are LN 5, LN17, and LN19 which are all GE equipped 787s. Also on the possible new order front, EVA Airways is saying that they plane on buying 24-26 787s for delivery between 2018 and 2019 according to a report by Reuters. We’ll see when these do in fact materialize.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 Program: 2014 Look ahead

What's in store for the 787 program in 2014.  A lot it appears.  Let's take a look at what is expected for this program:

787-9

Undoubtedly, the biggest development that will come in 2014 is the certification and entry into service of the larger version of the 787, the 787-9.  This aircraft is already in the middle of certification testing by Boeing with FAA personnel on board observing.  First delivery of ZB003 is scheduled for sometime in July of 2014 which indicates that Boeing should be complete with testing around May of this year.  The FAA should give its blessing around mid to late June and first delivery in July to Air New Zealand.  Boeing is giving ANZ a preview as it flies ZB002 to Auckland tonight where it will be toured by company brass and local media. ZB002 will be eventually delivered to ANZ after it is refurbished at the conclusion of the testing and certification program (along with ZB001).

All indications are that the testing is going well though there hasn't been much official word from Boeing regarding progress.  ANZ plans to use the aircraft on routes from Auckland to Perth, Christchurch, Shanghai and Tokyo with the 3 aircraft they expect in 2014.  ANZ is expected to stat service on Oct. 15, 2014 on the Auckland-Perth route.

Dispatch Issues

Boeing has been bombarded with reliability issues which have caused numerous headaches for their customers and the flying passengers.  Boeing has promised to get these issues down over the next 6 months so that the dispatch rates of the 787 will be at or better of the 777 rates.  Most of the issues seem to emanate from software and the frequency of warning messages that the pilots receive in the cockpit.  This has caused a lot of needless delays and cancellations.  Boeing is planning a major software change that will be certified by the middle of 2014 to reduce these false warning messages.  There are some who believe that this will not be the answer or the end to the reliability issues of the 787.

Production

Boeing has stated that 787 production has hit the promised goal of 10/month.  December was a slower month due to the Holiday season but I do expect that they will start to pick up the production pace this month at the 10/month rate.  I do expect that Charleston will be at 2/month while Everett will split the 8/month between the main line in 40-26 and the surge line in 40-24.

787-10

Now that the 787-10 has launched, Boeing will be pouring engineering resources into the design of the aircraft this year.  I expect the firm configuration to be completed next year with detailed design in 2016, final assembly of first flight of the first 787-10 in 2017 and delivery in 2018.  I do expect more order for the 787-10 but I think many of them will come in the form of conversions or exercising options and purchase rights.

Deliveries

Now that Boeing is hitting a rate of 10/month, this begs the questions of how many can they deliver in 2014.  In terms of new builds, I can see Boeing delivering around 100 to 110 aircraft. Remember, the production rate is vastly different from the delivery rate which is still not stable.  In terms of the aircraft working their way through change incorporation, I do believe Boeing can deliver around 7 to 9 aircraft.  This is a huge year over yer increase in deliveries but Boeing needs to execute if they want to regain integrity in the program.

There will be some new customers for the 787 this year.  Many are publicly known but there are some operators who will be receiving the aircraft on a lease basis.  Here is a list of airlines that will be taking their first 787s this year, though it is not a comprehensive list.

Carrier
Air Canada
Air New Zealand
American Airlines
Avianca
Azerbaijan Airlines
BBJ-Saudi Ministry of Finance
Etihad Airways
Kenya Airways
Royal Air Maroc
Royal Jordanian Airlines
Scoot Pte Ltd
Virgin Atlantic Airways
Xiamen Airlines


There are some current customers who will take their first 787-9 this year including ANA and JAL



Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

787-9 to make trip to Australia and New Zealand for testing and marketing

Boeing will be sending a flight test 787-9 to New Zealand and Australia late this week to conduct hot weather testing as well as for marketing purposes.  The aircraft, ZB002 (LN 133, N787FT) will sport the marking of launch customer Air New Zealand when it leaves Boeing Field around January 2nd or 3rd.  It is due to arrive in Auckland, NZ around January 4th in the late afternoon where it will remain for 2 days as Boeing and Air New Zealand conduct a marketing program for the larger version of the 787.  It'll leave Auckland on Monday Jan. 6th at about 11 AM local time for Brisbane where it will clear customs and then proceed to Alice Springs, Australia landing at about 5 PM local time.

ZB002 will conduct hot weather testing at Alice Springs from January 7th to January 11th.  It is unknown if the aircraft will return to the united States immediately after completion of the hot weather tests or if it conduct more market/testing activities will down under.

Testing on the larger 787 variant apparently is going well by all accounts.  Boeing has completed the first production 787-9 and should start on the 2nd production aircraft sometime late next month.  The fourth 787-9 will participate in F&R testing as well as other testing activities that need to be completed.  There are plans to include a 5th 787-9 in the testing process but I'm not sure if it will be ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) which will be the 1st 787-9 delivered to a customer.

Stay tuned for my 7887 2013 year end wrap up coming soon.

Second 787-9 takes flight, Boeing delivers 100th 787 (for real this time)

 

Boeing Photos

Ok so I have to backtrack a little bit.  Last week ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J)for Japan Airlines appeared at the Everett Delivery Center and later in the day Flightaware.com showed a delivery flight planned for that aircraft to Tokyo.  This was, I assumed, the 100^th delivery of a 787 to a customer and I reported it as such. However, the flight plan timed out and a couple of days later the aircraft was towed back to a flightline stall.  Now the aircraft may have been contractually delivered but I am not sure.  Right now it seems that ZA434 for Hainan Airlines (LN 85, B-2730) looks to be the 100^th delivered 787.

Given the high level of interest in the 787 I would have expected that Boeing would have made some comment about the delivery but as of yet there hasn’t been any communication about it even after I’ve made an inquiry about it.  Boeing is being very quiet about this which seems to suggest that there might be some sort of behind the scenes issue with who is the actual recipient of 787 #100 or Boeing is waiting to make a very big splash about it at some later date.

As far as production goes, Boeing is still making very good progress in ramping up the rate in the factory.  November has been slow in terms of production testing after last month’s flurry of flight test activity.  There are still 4 aircraft including the aforementioned ZA175 waiting to be delivered.  Boeing has delivered 2 aircraft through the first 10 days of this month though I still see Boeing able to deliver at least 6 more aircraft this month.  They will have to start moving planes out of the flightline and into customer hands if they’re to increase the rate and avoid have a glut of 787s crowding the Everett and Charleston ramps.  This week will probably be critical in terms of determining the progress in delivering these Dreamliners.  Boeing will need to get a few (about 4) more aircraft up doing their B-1 as well as have the 6 airplanes that have already started production testing flying their customer flights.

Last week ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT), the second 78-9 test aircraft, flew for the first time in a 4 hour and 18 minute test flight.  The following day, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) resumed test flights after spending a week at Everett.  No reason was given for the 1 week layover but I suspect it was to fine tune the aircraft and possibly change out some flight test equipment.  ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) had its GEnx engines run for the first time and I suspect will join the test flight program sometime around mid-December.  In the meantime, Boeing is continuing production work on the first 787-9.  ZB197 (LN 146) is destined for ANA and will be used for some of the final testing activities that the FAA mandated to be done on a production standard aircraft. I expect that this aircraft should roll out by late November but I don’t expect that it will be needed for any test flights until February at the earliest.  I still expect that the first 787-9 should deliver to Air New Zealand around April, 2014.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

Boeing delivers 9 787s in October, up to 98 total deliveries

Boeing had delivered 9 787s in the month of October and all things considered that was a very good month.  The production test flights in Everett was slowed down by a thick fog that hung around Everett for days and reduced visibility to much less than half a mile.  Certainly not good conditions to fly.  The delays caused by the weather had probably pushed back a few delivery dates to early November for a few Everett built 787s but also a factor was customer readiness to take these airplanes.

Of the notable airlines whose 787s are ready to be delivered to them are China Southern (2 aircraft), Hainan, and Air India. I do think that these aircraft along with one each for JAL and united will be delivered during the first week of November.  There seems to have been a knock on effect of airplanes delivering a little bit later than planned. A number of 78s that were expected to be delivered by late September were delivered in early October.  I expect there to be a similar occurrence this month with the 6 aircraft that have yet to be delivered.

Now that we are closing in on the end of the year, question turns to how many 787 will Boeing eventually deliver to its customers.  As of the end of October Boeing has delivered 49 787s.  This is 3 more than the number they delivered in 2012 and their target still remains above 60.  They can reach that target by the end of November.

Here's how I think November and December will shake out in terms of 787 deliveries:

Air India - 2
ANA - 1
China Southern - 3
Hainan - 3
ILFC/Sky Blue Holdings - 1
ILFC/UAE Presidential Flight - 1
Japan Airlines - 2
Norwegian - 1
QANTAS/Jetstar - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
TUI Travel - 1
United Airlines - 1

This is a total of 19 aircraft that Boeing certainly can deliver within the next two months.  This would bring the total 787s deliveries in 2013 to 68 and 117 overall.  Boeing needs to start clearing out 787s both at Everett and North Charleston as the company prepares to increase the 787 production rate to 10/month in December.

At the same time Boeing also plans on getting the two remaining 787-9s into the flight test program.  Boeing just rolled out the 3rd and final dedicated test flight aircraft, ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB). I expect that this aircraft should fly by late November - early December.  We're still waiting for ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to fly and I suspect that this will occur sometime within the next one week.  ZB001 flew back to Everett a few days ago.  The reason is unknown but I am guessing that it can be so Boeing can change out some flight test equipment before resuming flight tests.  To date, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) has accumulated over 150 flight test hours (I'm using Flightaware as my source).  However, by the end of the year all three 787-9 flight test airframes should be deep into the flight test program and recording an increasing number of hours. I expect the first delivery of the 787-9 to Air New Zealand by about April of next year.

Finally, I'd like to leave you all with an idea you all might want to try in your spare time:

To do list: go to a bank wearing a ski mask. Complete a normal transaction. Leave as if nothing happened.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) November 2, 2013

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

 

Is Boeing holding back 787 deliveries?

I'm not the one to be into conspiracy theories but with several Dreamliners waiting on the flightline at both Charleston and Everett and seemingly done with their customer acceptance flights, I think Boeing is planning to deliver many of these aircraft at the same time so that the airline that will take the 100th delivery remains safely anonymous until the last moment.

Call me paranoid but it does seem that way.  Boeing is flying quite a few test flights some within a day of the previous flight so that they can try and deliver them by October 31st.

Lastly, Matt Cawby tweeted that ZB001 (LN 133, N789FT) has its registration sticker attached thus indicating that first flight of this  aircraft is imminent.  I am guessing that it may take place by the end of this week.

787-9 ZB002 now has registration N789FT
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) October 29, 2013

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

 

Boeing equals 2012 787 delivery total.

Mid way through October Boeing has delivered 46 787s which is the same number that they delivered in all of 2012.  They've made great progress in bouncing back from the battery issues that grounded the world wide fleet and halted deliveries.  Through Oct. 6th, Boeing has delivered 95 787s and looks to deliver the 100th 787 later this month. Which one will get that honor is up in the air but it should still happen this month as there are several 787s that are in the middle or have completed their production testing.

Given we're at month end I think there is a little bit more clarity to the delivery schedule for the rest of this month.  So far in October Boeing has delivered 6 787 including 4 from Charleston.  Boeing, I believe, can deliver another 6 to 8 aircraft as follows:

ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) to Japan Airlines
ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) to Air India
ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) to China Southern Airlines
ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) to Hainan Airlines
ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) to China Southern Airlines
ZA562 (LN 122, N964AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA563 (LN 127, N965AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA446 (LN 130, V8-DLB) to Royal Brunei Airlines

* Dependent on US Govt. shutdown

While it looks good that the US government may reopen as early as tomorrow this could help with the deliveries to US-based buyers like ILFC.  ZA562's deliver, it seems, has been delayed as the FAA's registration office in Wichita, KS has remained closed because of the budget debacle.

While Boeing has been pretty aggressive with conducting production flights for the first half of the month, things seems to have quieted down in the last couple of days indicating that Boeing may be making taking some corrective action on the airplanes that they have flown before conducting customer acceptance flights or are preparing for those customer flights which would get underway shortly.  Additionally, Boeing is preparing to fly the second 787-9 (ZB002, LN 133, N789FT) within the next week though no date has been given. So far the 787-9 test program has accumulated just under 94 flight test hours.

Looking ahead, it seems that Boeing might be gearing up to increase 787 output per their plan.  10/month by the end of the year is still their goal and they seem to be on the verge of achieving it. Sources have told me that LN 158 will be the first airframe that will be produced at 10/month.  This aircraft is slated to be built in Charleston.  Boeing appears to be loading a 787 frame into position 1 every 14 to 16 days.  Extrapolated this would mean that ZA244 (LN 158, VT-ANP) should load (and Boeing would start producing 10/month) around December 8th.  Boeing is quickening the production rate which did slow down due to the 787-9 flight test aircraft assembly.

Lastly, with the government shutdown seemingly coming to an end, I'd like to leave you all with this:

So... the good news is that you're getting the government back, and the bad news is that you're getting THAT government back.
— SarcasticRover (@SarcasticRover) October 16, 2013

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

 

Boeing makes big push for 100 Dreamliner deliveries and a record number of 787 deliveries this month; 2nd 787-9 poised to join flight test effort

Boeing is conducting an aggressive effort to deliver a large number of 787s this month.  Even before mid month Boeing has delivered 5 787s many of these a spillover from September when they were expected to be delivered.  Through today, October 11th, 2013, Boeing has delivered 94 Dreamliners and will more than likely deliver it 100th 787 later this month.  Right now it's way to early to speculate to whom the 100 delivered 787 will go to as it depends on the progress of production flights.

Undeniably Boeing has been making a big push to deliver as many 787s as possible.  Today, alone there were 4 test flights including 2 B-1 flight.  A third was scheduled but didn't fly.  There are 3 Dreamliners that appear to be ready for delivery including the 6th for China Southern and the 2nd for Aeromexico.  One factor that can hinder deliveries, at least to US owners, is the continuing government shutdown.  While Boeing has the FAA inspectors back on the job at Charleston, the FAA still does not have its employees back in the office that process the aircraft registration and title transfers.  Boeing said that they can be mailed in but there still may be some delays due to the shutdown.  Deliveries to ILFC and United can be affected as well as to US based BBJ customers, for one of whom there is an aircraft about to start assembly.  Given the progression here's how I see the remainder of October shaking out in terms of 787 deliveries:

China Southern - 2 (1 each from Charleston and Everett)
Japan Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (from Charleston)
Qatar Airways - 1 (from Charleston)
ILFC/Aeromexico - 2 (from Everett, dependent on government shutdown)
Royal Brunei Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
United Airlines - 1 (from Charleston, dependent on government shutdown)

Other deliveries that may take place this month:
Air India (from Everett)
Japan Airlines (from Charleston)

Deliveries from Charleston have resumed after almost 3 months which is very good news.  Between September 30th and Oct. 9th, the Charleston facility delivered 4 787s and can deliver anywhere from 3 to 5 more this month which will help tremendously with the inventory there.  What will be interesting to see is whether Boeing can bring down the number of production test flights required for the Charleston built 787s.  The aircraft that were delivered recently needed many more flights than the ones built at Everett but this is probably attributable to Charleston still trying to ramp up the learning curve.  As time goes on the build quality should improve.  Everett wen through the same thing with some of the early delivered 787s.

Lastly the second 787-9 is getting close to making its first flight and joining its sister-ship at Boeing Field for test and certification activities.  ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was just moved from the fuel dock at Everett to a stall space on the flightline.  It should fly by Oct. 24th if it encounters no issues on pre-flight ground testing that should commence shortly.  To put the schedule in perspective.  It took ZB001 (LN 126, N787EX) 24 days from roll out to first flight.  ZB002 rolled out on September 30th and applying the same metric to this aircraft should give a first flight date of around Oct. 24th.  I do expect it to fly earlier than that as Boeing has improved knowledge from the ZB001's pre-flight.  Again this all assumes that ZB002 doesn't have any issues in the run up to first flight.  Another interesting stat is that ZB001 took 86 days in final assembly including painting and installation of test equipment.  ZA002 improved that number by 6 days to a total of 80 days in final assembly.  Boeing should be able to apply lessons learned from the first aircraft to get the 2nd aircraft up sooner.  We'll know by the 24th.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

 

Boeing delivers 5 787s in September, 787-9 finishes Initial Airworthiness Testing

There was high expectations that Boeing would have delivered quite a few 787s during September in an effort to improve quarterly results, however, Boeing managed only 5 deliveries during the past month.  On a bright note, it seems that there can be a good number of aircraft that should be delivered in early October as their delivery dates were pushed to the current month.  Boeing was very aggressive in production test flights in the effort to deliver many Dreamliners including the first aircraft to Jetstar (QANTAS) and Royal Brunei Airlines.   Additionally there were several 787s in Charleston that were expected to be delivered in September including aircraft for Air India, China Southern, Hainan, Qatar and LAN.  Hainan was delivered in September while China Southern was delivered on Oct. 1 and flew away on Oct. 2nd.  Boeing had to fly a lot of test flights on the 5 airplanes that they were trying to deliver from Charleston.  None of the aircraft for the above mentioned carriers flew fewer than 8 test flights with one 787 for LAN recording 13 flights. Two of these aircraft should deliver in early October with the Air India delivery on hold due to the usual financing issues with Air India.

Everett faired a little bit better but Boeing was planning to deliver the first 787s each to Jetstar and Royal Brunei.  These airplanes are still at Everett and I believe they should deliver in the early part of October as well.  All in all September was a very slow month for 787 deliveries and part of it may be due in part to customers being very picky during customer inspections (Qatar) as well as continued media reports about breakdown, cancellations and delays of the 787s in service with the customers.  Amongst the most vocal airlines regarding the teething issues are Norwegian, LOT Polish and Qatar.  However, it is a little disconcerting that aircraft built at Charleston had to fly more test flights (Boeing and customer) than those built at Everett though there were 787s that were assembled at Everett, especially the ones that were delivered in 2011 through mid 2012, that had to undertake numerous test flights.  Undoubtedly, as the Charleston team improves efficiency and their experience the number of test flights and squawks will trend downward.

So what should we expect for October?  This is difficult to say for several reasons: 1) Any issues at Charleston which currently has 8 787s waiting to be delivered and 9th that will be coming out soon. 2) Increase scrutiny by customers of their aircraft prior to deliveries which can lead to more customer flights 3) unpredictability of certain customers to take deliveries (Air India, China Southern, Hainan, and Qatar).  There is a fourth issue which may come up and that is the current government shutdown that can affect 787 production particularly with the 787-9 but also on changes with the 787-8.  Boeing has already spoken about this.  With the US Government shutdown there aren't any FAA inspectors to carry certification work and that could have a significant impact on deliveries.  I'll be watching this carefully.  I do think that we can see 9 to 10 787 deliveries mainly because of the spillover of missed September deliveries into October.

Lastly, Boeing announced that the 787-9 has completed Initial Airworthiness Testing which clears the way for Boeing 's engineers to fly aboard the aircraft in order to collect data.  Boeing has completed just under 50 hours of testing over the last two weeks.  The second test flight aircraft, ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was rolled out around Sept. 30th.  It spent 8- days in production vs. 86 for ZB001.  ZB001 flew 24 days after being rolled out.  If I apply the same metric to ZB002 then it should fly (barring any issues or unknown unknowns) by October 24th.  I believe it can fly by mid October.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

 

787-9 flight testing picks up as production 787 flight test tempo increases ahead of planned deliveries

Boeing Photo

Exactly 196 weeks or 3 years and 9 months after the first flight of ZA001 on December 15, 2009, Boeing successfully flew the next member of the 787 family, the 787-9.

Just a few days after the first 787-9 took to the air, the aircraft is packing on flight hours just a few days after taking its maiden flight.  Boeing is leveraging off the flight tests of ZB001's smaller sibling, the 787-8, to aggressively e 787-9's flight test envelope.  Because the aircraft is a  stretch of the 787-8 with the same wing and many of the same systems.  There are differences beyond the stretch of the airframe and these will be tested but given that Boeing has a ton of data already on the aircraft from the 787-8 testing they can pursue a higher flight rate.  It is still Boeing's plan to have a 6 month flight test/certification program.

There are still 2 more 787-9 in production.  The next one, ZB002, is almost complete.  ZB001 took 110 days from the start of final assembly on May 30 to first flight on September 17th.  If ZB002 takes the same amount of time (110 days) and using the July 12th date as the start of final assembly, this aircraft can possibly fly around October 30th.  However, I do expect that Boeing will apply lessons learned during the run up to ZB001's first flight to shorten that time.  It is entirely possible that ZB002 can fly around mid October.  Of course this is all dependent on finishing assembly activities and successful completion on ground testing.  ZB002 should roll out sometime in the first week of October if not earlier.

ZB021, the test aircraft that will be equipped with GE engines started final assembly on August 21st should roll out to the flightline around mid November and should fly by around early to mid December.

In the meantime Boeing is increasing the tempo of production flights has increased in the last few days as Boeing attempts to deliver around 10-12 787s this month.  So far 1 has been delivered.  We should see a good number of deliveries next week including 787s from the Charleston facility.

Lastly, I am attempting to document the 787-9 flight test program on a spreadsheet which is linked below.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

 

787 firing updated

The 787 firing order was updated to reflect 787 production up to and including L/N 180.  The customers aren't all that surprising but it does include the first 787-9 for Air New Zealand (ZB003, L/N 169) as well as three more 787-8s for Ethiopian.  Ethiopian is leaving open the possibility of increasing their 787-8 fleet after the final 787s are delivered in 2014.

Here's a rundown of L/N 162 to L/N 180:

ANA - 1
Air Canada - 2
Air India - 1
Air New Zealand - 1
British Airways - 2
China Southern - 1
Ethiopian - 3
Hainan - 1
ILFC/Aeromexico - 1
ILFC/Norwegian - 1
Jetstar (QANTAS) - 2
Norwegian - 1
Qatar Airways - 1
Royal Brunei - 1

With Boeing planning to increasing the assembly at aircraft 158 (ZA244, L/N 159, VT-ANP) by the end of the year.  This firing order should show aircraft that start final assembly through the end of February, 2014.

Boeing continues to prepare ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) for first flight.  This should take place within the next 10 days.  The static pressure cone has been attached according to Matt Cawby.  Boeing has sent ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to get painted then will return to the assembly line where it will have more flight test equipment installed.  ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) is well into final assembly.  The first 2 aircraft will go to Air New Zealand after being refurbished though the final destination of the GE powered ZB021 is unknown.  It is rumored that the Mexican Air Force will get this aircraft to transport that country's leader and other government officials.

Lastly, Boeing still has to resume production flight testing though some flights have occurred for Charleston built 787s. Stay tuned for this month's flight tests to start within a day or two.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 

Boeing rolls out 1st 787-9, deliveries increased last week.

Photo Courtesy of The Boeing Corporation

 

 

Boeing rolled out the first 787-9 to the flightline in preparation for first flight and the start flight and certification testing.  The program is expected to last approximately six months and would use three dedicated flight test aircraft: ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX), ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT), and ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) as well as one production standard aircraft that is not equipped with flight test gear: ZB197 (LN 146) which is earmarked for delivery to ANA.

Currently ZB001 is at the Everett fuel dock where it will undergo fueling tests and first start up of its APU.  Later it will move to the flightline for first engine start, gauntlet testing taxi tests and finally first flight.  I anticipate that ZB001 should be flying in about 2 - 3 weeks from now depending on how the other testing goes.  Here's the text of Boeing's press release:

Boeing Rolls Out First 787-9 Dreamliner

Second member of the super-efficient 787 family on track

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 24, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] has completed the first 787-9 Dreamliner. The second member of the super-efficient 787 family rolled out of the Everett, Wash., factory today to the flight line, where teams are preparing it to fly later this summer.

At 20 feet (6 m) longer than the 787-8, the 787-9 will extend the 787 family in both capacity and range, carrying 40 more passengers an additional 300 nautical miles (555 km). The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8 such as its exceptional environmental performance — 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than similarly sized airplanes — and passenger-pleasing features.

With the second and third airplanes in final assembly, Boeing and the 787-9 are on track. First delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand is set for mid-2014.

In other production news, Boeing delivered 6 787s between Aug. 16th and Aug. 23rd.  Looking ahead o the last week of August they will certainly deliver at least 2 more (1 each to Japan Airlines and Hainan Airlines).  There is a possibility of delivering two more to Air India but these deliveries, which were expected to take place last week and were held up due to Air India's inability to find financing to complete the purchase, may be held even longer due to the aforementioned inability to secure bridge financing.  Boeing had hoped to deliver one more 787 to British Airways this month but due to technical issues which forced the cancellation of 2 attempts to carry out B-1 testing it is now doubtful that this aircraft can be delivered this month.  Boeing will, at the very least, finish up August with 9 deliveries possibly 11.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 












Boeing paints and rolls out 1st 787-9

Images courtesy of the Boeing Company

 

Boeing released a statement and photo of the 1st 787-9 after completing the painting of the aircraft.  Boeing said that it had rolled the aircraft out of the paint hangar so all you plane spotters please get to Everett for more photos.  Hopefully it wasn't rolled back into one of the assembly hangars. 

 

This plane is complete in the time frame I had predicted a couple of months ago (roll out in late July) and I still expect that first flight should occur (barring any unknown unknowns) by late August to early September to kick off the 6 month flight test/certification program.  Boeing will be giving a briefing on the 787-9 flight test and certification program but they will be using 3 instrumented aircraft (ZB001, ZB002, ZB021) and a 4th production standard aircraft (ZB197) which will not be instrumented.

 

Here's Boeing's Press Release: 

 

First Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner Features New Boeing Livery

EVERETT, Wash., July 27, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] continues to make progress on the first 787-9 Dreamliner, which also has become the first 787 to don the new Boeing Commercial Airplanes livery. The airplane has just rolled out of the paint hangar.

This refreshed look for the Boeing family began with the 747-8 and evolved with the 737 MAX. The new livery retains many of the features of the original 787-8 livery, adding a prominent number on the tail to help distinguish among models within the same product family.

The 787-9 will complement and extend the 787 family, offering airlines the ability to grow routes opened with the 787-8. With the fuselage stretched by 20 feet (6 meters), the 787-9 will carry 40 more passengers an additional 300 nautical miles (555 kilometers), with 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than similarly sized airplanes. The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8, offering the features passengers prefer such as large, dimmable windows, large stow bins, modern LED lighting, higher humidity, a lower cabin altitude, cleaner air and a smoother ride.

Boeing is on track to roll out and fly the 787-9, currently in final production, in late summer. First delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand is set for mid-2014.

AAIB to put out interim report on Ethiopian 787 incident within days; 787 production slowed in Everett

UPDATE: Jon Ostrower is reporting that the 1st 787-9 (ZB001, LN 126, N789EX) should be rolling out of 40-24 and into the paint hangar at around 11PM PT. Final assembly of this test flight aircraft took 48 days.

The UK's AAIB is expected to put out an interim report on the fire/heat event on board the Ethiopian 787 which occurred on July 12th.  Thus far investigator are looking at the aircraft's lithium-manganese powered emergency locator transmitter (ELT).  This piece of equipment is made by Honeywell and is considered an off the shelf item meaning that it was not designed exclusively for the787 but is probably used on other commercial aircraft models.  It is far from certain if the ELT is the cause or help feed the fire but investigators did find this piece of equipment virtually destroyed and the damaged to the carbon composite structure of the aircraft is in the area where the ELT is located.

In the meantime none of the airlines nor Boeing have stopped 787 operations and the carriers continue to fly their full schedule.

Boeing continues 787 production with the 2nd 787-9, ZB002 (LN133, N789FT) entering final assembly on July 12th in 40-24.  However an analysis of the 787-8s that have started final assembly reveal that the production rate has slowed at Everett. I'm not sure if it was due to the prolong grounding during the winter-early spring, the re-configuration of the main final assembly hall in 40-26 or a combination of both.  Looking at the production table, Boeing loaded ZA563 (LN 127) on June 26th after the reconfiguration and construction in 40-26 but the next two 787-8 that entered into final assembly was LN 128 (6 days later on July 2), LN 130 (14 days later after LN 128) and LN 131 is due to enter assembly 10 days later after LN 130.  To keep up the 5/month rate in Everett Boeing has to be loading one 787 into position 1 every 6 days.  It may be that they are re-ramping up to that rate after the construction but we would have to see.

The situation in Charleston may be similar.  The Post and Courier revealed that the Charleston line is producing at 1.5/month and will not get to 3/month until sometime in the 1st quarter of 2014 but that Boeing still plans to have 787 production at 10/month by the end of this year.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery