All Things 787 Mega Update

First let me start out this update by saying that my prayers and condolences are with the victims and families of MH17.  I do hope that there is swift justice for all the responsible perpetrators of this awful crime.

Since my last blog post about 3 weeks ago there has been much activity with the 787.  Boeing posted 15 total deliveries in June and a total of 30 in the 2nd quarter.  This total included the first delivery of the 787-9 to Air New Zealand as well as delivering a 787 that completed a customers full order (China Southern receiving it's 10th 787 from an order of 10 that they placed).  Boeing has delivered 48 787s through the end of June (51 to date) and overall 787 deliveries to June 2014 stands at 162 (165 to date).

AS attention now turns to the last half of 2014, we will see the first 787-9 with GE engines delivered to United Airlines.  The first aircraft for UA, ZB167 (LN 181,N38950) performed its first flight on July 11th and is now into the F&R/ETOPs testing for the GEnx powered version of the 787-9. This aircraft should be delivered to United by the end of August.  ANA should also be receiving its first 787-9 later this month.  It will take delivery of ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) after it had completed the F&R/ETOPs flight testing for the Roll Royce powered version of the -9.  It had to go through change incorporation and is at the final stages of production testing.

I do anticipate that Boeing can deliver around 10 787s in July including the one to ANA.  It already has delivered 3 aircraft and at least 5 more look to be ready for delivery over the next 11 days.  Including the aforementioned 787-9 for ANA other deliveries should include:

Air Canada - 1
Air India - 1
Ethiopian Airlines - 1
Kenya Airways - 1
QANTAS - 1
Qatar Airways - 1

Boeing needs to deliver and average of 10.3 787s in the last 6 months of 2014 in order  to make good on it's 10 delivery projections for the Dreamliner.

July 2014 also meant that the who's who of the Aerospace world trekked to Farnborough, UK for the bi-annual Farnborough Air Show except for your trully (I still have my day job to worry about).  Though I was hoping for some more 787 orders (particularly the -8 and -10), there were still come decent 787 orders coming from lessor CIT for 10 787-9d and MG Aviation (Arkia Airlines) for 2 787-9.  There is an LoI for 6 787-9 from lessor Avolon.  However, baring a major order, Boeing's 787 book to bill will be significantly lower than 1 this year as the orders are only trickling in.  Certainly they will receive many more orders for the aircraft but this may be stymied by the launch of the A330neo.  Boeing still has to study the effect that the launch may have on future 787s orders and how to mitigate.  Certainly, Boeing can improve the fuel efficiency of the -8 by continuing to take weight out of the aircraft as well as incorporating improvements from the 787-9 flight test program.  Boeing can also start equipping the -8 with the same hybrid laminar flow control technology that will be standard on the 787-9 and 787-10.  Adding this can make the 787-8 more attractive to customers when it comes to a decision between the A330neo and the 787-8.  As far as I know Airbus is not installing the technology on the A330neo as it is still trying to develop the technology.  While the A330neo has garnered 121 orders during the airshow, 50 of these is to Air Asia which only buys Airbus, and most of the rest were to lessors all of whom already have the 787 in their portfolio.  We will only know which aircraft will be preferred by operators when there is a head to head competition of the two airplanes for airline orders.  One such competition is coming up later this year when Delta will look to refresh its widebody fleet. Delta inherited Northwest Airline's 18 787-8 order when the two companies merged thus it will be interesting to see how this will be factored into the final decision by Delta's fleet managers and board.

Here's the final order tally from Farnborough (Boeing vs. Airbus only):

Boeing
Okay Airlines - 6 x 737Max8 (Firm), 4 x 737-800 (Firm)
Monarch - 30 x 737Max8 (LoI)
Avolon - 6 x 787-9 (LoI), 5 x 737Max9 (LoI)
Air Lease Corp - 6 x 777-300ER (Firm), 20 x 737Max8 (Firm)
Intrepid Aviation - 6 x 777-300ER (LoI)
CIT - 10 x 787-9 (Firm)
Hainan Airlines - 50 x 737Max8 (LoI)
MG Aviation - 2 x 787-9 (firm)
Qatar Airways - 50 x 777-9X (Firm), 4 x 777F (LoI)
Air Algerie - 2 x 737-700C (Firm)

Airbus
Air Lease Corp - 25 x A330-900neo (LoI), 60 x A320neo (Firm)
AerCap - 50 x A320neo (Firm)
IAG - 20 x A320neo (Firm)
AirAsiaX - 50 x A330-900neo (LoI)
Avolon - 15 x A330neo (LoI)
BOC Aviation - 43 x A320neo
CIT - 15 x A330neo (LoI), 5 x A321neo (LoI)
SMBC Aviation - 110 x A320neo (Firm), 5x A320 (Firm)
Air Mauritius - 4 x A350-900 (LoI)
Hong Kong Aviation - 40 x A320neo (Firm), 30 x A321neo (Firm)
Transaero - 12 x A330neo (LoI), 8 x A330 (LoI)
Unidentified - 4 x A330neo (LoI)

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

Boeing contractually delivers first 787-9 to Air New Zealand

Boeing has delivered the first 787-9 to Air New Zealand today in a contractual delivery.  As I had earlier reported, Boeing was planning to deliver the first 787-9 ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) but the aircraft will not leave for another 9 to 10 days or so while the airlines' staff undergoes further training in Everett.

This delivery is the first of 12 787-9s that I expect Boeing will deliver this year and represents a silver lining for the company's flagship commercial aircraft program.  Though some dark clouds do remain.  I had expect Boeing to have started ETOPs/F & R testing on the 787-9 equipped with the GE GEnX-1B engines well by now word is that this won't start until later in July.  United Airlines will be the first customer to receive the GE powered version of the -9 and this was expected to be delivered at the end of July.  Now I believe the delivery won't occur until late August. 

Boeing should deliver another 787-9 to ANA in July (ZB197, LN 146, JA830A) will be delivered to the airline by around the third week of July.  The delivery of 787-9s in 2014 should be as follows:

ANA#1 - 7/2014

UA#1 - 8/2014

ANA#2 - 8/2014

ANZ#2 - 9/2014

Virgin#1 - 9/2014

UA#2 - 10/2014

Etihad#1 - 10/2014

ANZ#3 - 10/2014

Scoot#1 - 11/2014

Virgin#2 - 11/2014

Etihad#2 - 12/2014

 

In June Boeing, thus far, has posted an impressive 14 787 deliveries though there may be one more which I am working to confirm and the total may end up being 15 total 787s delivered in June.  This is the greatest number of 787s delivered in any one month since December of last year which saw 11 aircraft delivered.  If there is one more delivery tomorrow, Boeing would have delivered 48 787s through the first 6 months of 2014 and 162 overall since deliveries began in September 2011.  Boeing is aiming to deliver at least another 62 787s in the last 6 months though they will try for a number as high as 74 in the last 6 months which will include a few more early build 787s.  Though the 787 deliveries started 2014 very weekly, the program did finish the 2nd quarter in very strong fashion.  It remains to be seen if they finish 2014 in a similar way.

 

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

 

FAA and EASA certifies the 787-9

Boeing announced this morning that the FAA and EASA has certified the 787-9 clearing the way for the first delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand.  The first aircraft for the carrier is already undergoing production flight tests and should deliver in about 2 weeks.


Air New Zealand has ordered the Rolls Royce powered aircraft.  Boeing has yet to start F&R/ETOPs testing on the GE powered version of the aircraft but that should start this month.  I still believe that Boeing should deliver the first GE powered 787-9 to United Airlines late next month.


There has been some questions if the FAA would grant the Amended Type certificate to Boeing due to two separate issues: 1) a need to re-design a capacitor in the RAT and 2) an altitude select knob on the Mode Control Panel (MCP) that doesn't have enough torque and can lead to an error in setting attitude as directed by ATC.  Boeing has asked for a time limited exemptions from these two issues and apparently the FAA and EASA has agreed.  Flightglobal has an a detailed explanation of the issues in an article here.


I do anticipate that Boeing will be able to deliver 12 787-9 this year as follows:


Air New Zealand - 3
ANA - 2
Etihad Airways - 2
Scoot - 1
United Airlines - 2
Virgin Atlantic - 2


Here's Boeing Press Release announcing the award of the Amended Type Certificate:

Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner Earns FAA, EASA Certification

Newest commercial airplane nears delivery on track

EVERETT, Wash., June 16, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Boeing (NYSE: BA) 787-9 Dreamliner has been certified by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) for commercial service. Boeing is now in the final stages of preparing for the first 787-9 delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand.

"Certification is the culmination of years of hard work and a rigorous flight-test program that started with the 787-9's first flight last September," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Ray Conner. "With this validation that the airplane is ready for commercial operations, Boeing along with our airline and leasing customers now look forward to introducing the newest member of the Dreamliner family to passengers around the world."

To earn certification for the 787-9, Boeing undertook a comprehensive test program with five airplanes and more than 1,500 hours of flight testing, plus ground and laboratory testing. Following the rigorous and thorough certification process, the FAA and EASA each granted Boeing an Amended Type Certificate for the 787-9, certifying that the design complies with aviation regulations and is safe and reliable.

"Throughout 787-9 development, the dedication and discipline of our entire global team drove outstanding performance," said Mark Jenks, vice president, 787 Airplane Development, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "From the start of assembly last spring to a flawless first flight and now our on-time certification, we thank everyone on the Boeing and partner team as well as our customers for making 787-9 development so successful."

The FAA also has granted Boeing an Amended Production Certificate, validating that the Boeing production system can produce 787-9s that conform to the design. EASA accepts FAA oversight of Boeing production certificates, just as the FAA accepts EASA oversight of European manufacturers' production certificates.

The new 787-9 Dreamliner will complement and extend the super-efficient 787 family. With the fuselage stretched by 20 feet (6 meters) over the 787-8, the 787-9 will fly more passengers and more cargo farther with the same exceptional environmental performance — 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than similarly sized airplanes. The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8, offering passengers features such as large windows, large stow bins, modern LED lighting, higher humidity, a lower cabin altitude, cleaner air and a smoother ride.

Twenty-six customers around the world have ordered 413 787-9s, accounting for 40 percent of all 787 orders.

787 Production Update - June 2014

Thus far through the end of May Boeing has delivered 33 787s.  With 7 months to go in the year, Boeing needs to ramp up the delivery rate if it is to deliver 110 787s by the end of the year.  That means they have to deliver 77 aircraft in the last 7 months...11/month delivery rate.

May Review

 

May was a disappointing month.  I was expecting at least 10 deliveries and Boeing managed 7. If the theme sounds familiar it's because it is.  There is an expectations that Boeing delivery rate will match the 787 build rate which currently is at 10/month though the airplanes that have emerged from final assembly still have minor travelled work that needs to be completed.  An interesting side to the delivery story for May though.  Boeing, it seems had delivered 2 787s to Air India last month while the official tally on Boeing's Order and Delivery website show that they delivered 1 to the carrier.  Sources have confirmed to me that Boeing did indeed make contractual delivery of ZA232 (LN 28, VT-ANC) though this aircraft still remains in Charleston.  The reason for this is still unknown.

 

June Preview

 

Boeing has ramped up 787 flight activity significantly and has delivered 4 787s through the first 10 days of June.  Some of these deliveries were slated for May but had rolled into June.  Boeing will need to deliver at least 7 more 787s which, at least for now, looks like they can accomplish easily.  They currently have 11 787s that are in production testing or that are ready for delivery.  I do think that 8 to 9 of those can be delivered this month.  Boeing should deliver the first 787-9 to Air New Zealand on June 30th pending a decision by the FAA (see below).  ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) has been flying lately and should be ready for delivery in the next couple of weeks.  Boeing will probably run a few more flight than they typically do in order to work out all the bugs and make sure that the aircraft has sufficient maturity to enter airline service.

 

787-9

 

Flightglobal revealed that Boeing is asking the FAA for a waiver in order to deliver the 787-9. The request is related to two items that are not compliant with the certification standards that Boeing and the FAA agreed to concerning the 787-9.  Boeing is scheduled to deliver ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE), the first 787-9, to Air New Zealand on June 30th.  The two issues are 1) a capacitor in the ram Air turbine (RAT) that failed during a flight test.  This capacitor needs to be redesign and certified for use on the aircraft.  The second issues relates to a dial on a control panel in the cockpit of the aircraft.  The dial is altitude select knob that is used in the vertical flight mode.  The dial can be inadvertently rotate 1 or 2 stops beyond the desired setting if the pilot just presses the knob and thus violate altitude range set by the ATC.  There is a lack of sufficient torque that is causing this issue.  This will be watched closely to see what the FAA will do but it is concerning especially since the 787-9 flight testing has gone so well.  Boeing doesn't want to deliver this aircraft late even by a few weeks let alone a few months.

 

Most of the 787-9 testing appears to have been completed though Boeing still has to undertake F&R/ETOPs flight testing using an production aircraft equipped with the GE  GEnX-1B engines.  I anticipate that ZB167 (LN 181, N38950) should take to the air within the next 10 to 14 days and should fly a comparable number of hours as ZB197 (LN146, JA830A).

 

Charleston Production Ramp Up

 

Boeing is preparing to ramp up the 787 production at Charleston to 3/month from the current 2.  This switch should take place in early to mid July.  Boeing is currently loading a 787 into Position 1A every 12 to 13 days. They will need to load one every 10 days but the number of available assembly spots to conduct assembly activities has been reduced to 6 from 8 as two positions are undergoing construction (Position 1B and Position 6).

 

ETOPS 330

 

Boeing did get some good news from the FAA last month when the approved the 787-8 for ETOPS 330.  This means the 787-8 can operate from an airport that is no further than five and half hours flying time in case of an emergency.  This means the carriers can fly more direct and fuel efficient routes, especially over the Pacific and fully take advantage of the 787s capabilities.  It is now up to the local civil aviation regulators to approve or deny the airlines that are under their oversight to fly the 787 under ETOPS 330.  The 787-9 will not receive this certification until much later but it will probably be Boeing's next major certification as Air New Zealand is eager to have the aircraft certified for ETOPS 330.  I do not know when Boeing plans to achieve ETOPS 330 certification for the 787-9.

 

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries

 

Boeing details 787 progress during 1st quarter earnings call

Yesterday Boeing released its 1s quarter earnings which topped analyst expectations.  The 787 deliveries has contributed significantly to the improved bottom line and Boeing was more than happy to share the progress on the 787 program.

Boeing noted that they hit the 10/month production rate fully during the quarter but also have completed the preliminary design review on the 787-10.  Boeing will now proceed with the detail design of the 787-10 which is expected to enter production around 2016.

The production rate has stabilized at both Charleston and Everett which will also help them stabilize the delivery rate.  Boeing did note that there will be continued variance in the delivery rate as they are there are 18 customers receiving their first 787 this year and typically those customers have different requirements and testing that need to be done as well as differences in financing the final payment.  They did reiterate that they will deliver 110 787s this year. So far through today (April 24, 2014) they have delivered 21 787s.  I believe they can deliver at least 2 more, possibly 3 this month for a total of 23 to 24 for the year and 5 to 6 for the month of April.  Obviously they will need to pick it up in the later months going forward.  The lack of deliveries to Air Canada, I believe, hurt their April delivery number which could have added at least 2 more to that monthly total.  IT is rumored that the delays are attributable to issues with the IFE though it is not confirmed.

As mentioned earlier, Boeing said that the production system has stabilized.  The two issues that have also contributed to slower deliveries was the wing issue by Mitsubishi and the increase in travelled work on the mid body fuselage.  With regards to the former, Boeing said that there are only 3 more aircraft that need to be inspected and fixed thus that issue is largely behind them.  On the later, there has been a great improvement in the reduction of the number of open jobs.  Sources have confirmed this to me to be true but that there is still some improvement needed with regards to the travelled work.  It does appear that there are fewer aircraft going to the EMC and are actually going to the ramp to finish off the minor jobs still opened and then proceeding to the paint hangar.

The 787-9 testing is also going really well and Boeing is still maintaining first delivery in the middle of the year.  The 6th 787-9 to be built just rolled out of final assembly.  This is ZB167 that will be delivered to United Airlines in July.  This aircraft will participate in the flight testing program as well and I anticipate that it should start flying around the middle of next month.  It will undertake F&R/ETOPs testing with the GE GEnx-1B engines.  Boeing also said that unit cost for the 787-9 have improved 30% between the first and 6th 787-9 which is tremendous.  It should continue to drop as more aircraft are introduced into the production system and the assembly has stabilized.  However Boeing is expecting that most of the production over the next couple of years will be 787-8 vs. 787-9.

Lastly, dispatch reliability is continuing to trend above 98% but Boeing still is not satisfied and will be looking to get that above 99% which is not expected to happen until later this summer when improved software is introduced to the 787 fleet.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries


 

Big week for the 787-9

Boeing Photo

 

The 787-9 is seen by some observers as the 787 program done right.  Indeed Boeing has applied lessons learned (and there are countless number of lessons) to the stretch of their new airplane.  The results have been excellent as it appears that Boeing has learned from past mistakes of the 787-8.

Boeing Photo

This week the 787-9 passed several milestones on the road to certification, delivery and entry into service.  We saw the rollout of the first production 787-9 for Air New Zealand, ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) from the Everett paint hangar.  The aircraft was beautiful in ANZ black and white scheme and is easily the best scheme on a 787.  This aircraft, which apparently has its passenger cabin all fitted out, went back into the EMC hangar for more change incorporation work as the FAA signs off on the tests as they are accomplished by the test flight fleet. 

Boeing Photo

Boeing is adding 2 production 787-9 to the test flight program for functionality and reliability testing (F & R) and ETOPs testing.  The last of these two aircraft, which is destined to be delivered to United Airlines in about 3 months time, was rolled out last night on April 8th and is ZB167 (LN 181).  It will do the F & R/ETOPs testing for the GEnx engines and I am guessing that it could start that testing as early the 1st or 2nd week of May. This aircraft has its passenger cabin installed.

The first aircraft to conduct F & R/ETOPs testing is ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) which is to be delivered to ANA probably sometime this year. This aircraft also has its passenger cabin fitted out. It will conduct the same testing on the Roll Royce engines. It had conducted its B-1 flight today, April 9th and will stage the flight testing from Boeing Field.  I believe that ZB197 should complete its flight test duties sometime around the end of May to early June.

Given these development this past week, it appears that Boeing is well on its way to delivering the 787-9.

FAA give it's blessing to Boeing's 787 fix

The FAA, as expected, approved Boeing's plan to retrofit the 787s with new batteries and a new containment system to eliminate the risk of fire and electrolyte spills in the two E/E bays. Very importantly the 787 doesn't loss its ETOPs 180 certification meaning they can fly as much as 3 hours from a divert airport.  I do believe that Boeing will still pursue the ETOPS 330 certification but the FAA will make them jump through hoops for that which they will do. While the AOG (aircraft on Ground) teams from Boeing are in position, Boeing still needs to ship the kits to the locations where each aircraft is while GS Yuasa will be shipping out the new batteries to those same locations as well.

Now that the FAA has given approval the next step is for Boeing's AOG teams along with airline maintenance personnel to start preliminary work on the aircraft until they get the first kits and replacement batteries.  They will in stall them at which point it's up to the each country's aviation regulators to sign off on the modification and lift the grounding on the 787 based in that country.  The FAA says they will send out instructions to the operators detailing the fix and then publish the final airworthiness directive in the Federal Register making the approval official.  It is after that that any US-based airlines with the 787 whose aircraft has been modified under the directive will be allowed to resume revenue service of the 787.  This would apply to United Airlines as it is currently the only US operator of the aircraft but typically foreign aviation regulators follow suit.  One exception though maybe Japan's JCAB.  They may require more stringent oversight of the lithium ion batteries including more frequent visual inspections and more detailed monitoring of the voltage in each battery.

The timeline to get these airplanes flying again doesn't end with the regulators tamp of approval for each of the airlines. The carriers must engage in flight training as well as scheduling the resumption of service and, of course, sell tickets for those flights.  Some carriers may re-substitute the 787 in place of the aircraft type currently flying certain routes while other will re-start routes like the Tokyo-Boston route serviced by JAL when the fire broke out at Logan.  Routes that were temporarily suspended will likely take longer to get back on line but I see that happening by June. Still I do believe that Boeing will be able to complete work on all 50 aircraft in about 6 weeks. Each AG team has about 30 members (this jives with what I reported in an earlier post with a team in Ethiopia).  There are 10 teams that are deployed though for certain there must be several teams in Japan as well as one in Qatar and Ethiopia.  The 787s that have to be modified are in 9 different countries including the United states so it would be reasonable to assume that there are 2 teams in Japan as there are 23 787s on the ground in that country that need the modification.  I anticipate that one team each will be sent to Chile, Germany, the UK, Qatar, India, Ethiopia, Poland, and one will be in the US.

So when can flights resume? Well Ethiopian has been vocal about resuming flights next week which is possible just as long as the fix is in place and that the Ethiopian aviation regulators sign off.  Qatar Airways is also eyeing restarting revenue flights by the end of April.  I don't expect JAL and ANA to start flying until mid May at the earliest.  United is currently evaluating when they can restart their service.

Deliveries are also the minds of 787 watchers.  Boeing is concurrently modifying the 787s at Everett and Charleston.  So far as I know there are three airplanes that have the battery fix:

ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) for Polish LOT
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) for ANA
ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) for China Southern

The later was supposed to make its first flight today but it didn't come to pass and may fly tomorrow.  One thing Boeing made clear is that they do intend to still deliver 60+ 787s this year per their guidance but they also said that production flight testing will have to be aggressively ramped up. I still believe that Boeing will have to deliver on average of 8 787s per month in order to meet heir guidance. They have to clear the current ready to deliver backlog of 34 aircraft (doesn't include any 787s that will be added to this pile in the next few months) thus they would probably clear this backlog over the next 5 to 6 months.  What is uncertain is which aircraft (other than the aforementioned three aircraft) will be delivered first.  We do know that 31 787s between Everett and Charleston will need to be modified first but I don't know which one have already been modified or of the order in which they'll be modified.  We'll only know when these airplanes take to the sly for their first flight.

When everything is all said and done, it does look like that Boeing's gamble to keep up with the current full rate production of 5/month will pay off...just as long as they can deliver the backlog sitting in Washington and South Carolina.

Here's the FAA Press Release announcing the approval:

FAA Approves Boeing 787 Battery System Design Changes

For Immediate Release
April 19, 2013
Contact: Laura Brown
Phone: (202) 267-3883

---

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) today took the next step in returning the Boeing 787 to flight by approving Boeing's design for modifications to the 787 battery system. The changes are designed to address risks at the battery cell level, the battery level and the aircraft level.
Next week, the FAA will issue instructions to operators for making changes to the aircraft and will publish in the Federal Register the final directive that will allow the 787 to return to service with the battery system modifications. The directive will take effect upon publication. The FAA will require airlines that operate the 787 to install containment and venting systems for the main and auxiliary system batteries, and to replace the batteries and their chargers with modified components.
“Safety of the traveling public is our number one priority. These changes to the 787 battery will ensure the safety of the aircraft and its passengers,” said Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.
“A team of FAA certification specialists observed rigorous tests we required Boeing to perform and devoted weeks to reviewing detailed analysis of the design changes to reach this decision,” said FAA Administrator Michael Huerta.
To assure proper installation of the new design, the FAA will closely monitor modifications of the aircraft in the U.S. fleet. The FAA will stage teams of inspectors at the modification locations. Any return to service of the modified 787 will only take place after the FAA accepts the work.
As the certifying authority, the FAA will continue to support other authorities around the world as they finalize their own acceptance procedures.

Next here is Boeing's Press Release:

Boeing to Begin Modifying 787s as FAA Approves Battery Improvements

- Modifications to existing fleets to begin; deliveries to resume soon

- Boeing to provide customers support for return to service

EVERETT, Wash., April 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's approval of battery system improvements for the 787 Dreamliner by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) clears the way for Boeing (NYSE: BA) and its customers to install the approved modifications and will lead to a return to service and resumption of new production deliveries.
"FAA approval clears the way for us and the airlines to begin the process of returning the 787 to flight with continued confidence in the safety and reliability of this game-changing new airplane," said Boeing Chairman, President and CEO Jim McNerney. "The promise of the 787 and the benefits it provides to airlines and their passengers remain fully intact as we take this important step forward with our customers and program partners."
The FAA's action will permit the return to service of 787s in the United States upon installation of the improvements. For 787s based and modified outside the United States, local regulatory authorities provide the final approval on return to service.
Approval of the improved 787 battery system was granted by the FAA after the agency conducted an extensive review of certification tests.  The tests were designed to validate that individual components of the battery, as well as its integration with the charging system and a new enclosure, all performed as expected during normal operation and under failure conditions. Testing was conducted under the supervision of the FAA over a month-long period beginning in early March.
"The FAA set a high bar for our team and our solution," said McNerney. "We appreciate the diligence, expertise and professionalism of the FAA's technical team and the leadership of FAA Administrator Michael Huerta and Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood throughout this process.  Our shared commitment with global regulators and our customers to safe, efficient and reliable airplanes has helped make air travel the safest form of transportation in the world today."
Boeing, in collaboration with its supplier partners and in support of the investigations of the National Transportation Safety Board and the Japan Transport Safety Board, conducted extensive engineering analysis and testing to develop a thorough understanding of the factors that could have caused the 787's batteries to fail and overheat in two incidents last January.  The team spent more than 100,000 hours developing test plans, building test rigs, conducting tests and analyzing the results to ensure the proposed solutions met all requirements.
"Our team has worked tirelessly to develop a comprehensive solution that fully satisfies the FAA and its global counterparts, our customers and our own high standards for safety and reliability," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Ray Conner. "Through the skill and dedication of the Boeing team and our partners, we achieved that objective and made a great airplane even better."
Boeing also engaged a team of more than a dozen battery experts from across multiple industries, government, academia and consumer safety to review and validate the company's assumptions, findings, proposed solution and test plan.
The improved battery system includes design changes to both prevent and isolate a fault should it occur. In addition, improved production, operating and testing processes have been implemented. The new steel enclosure system is designed to keep any level of battery overheating from affecting the airplane or even being noticed by passengers.
"This is a comprehensive and permanent solution with multiple layers of protection," said Conner.  "The ultimate layer of protection is the new enclosure, which will ensure that even if a battery fails, there is no impact to the airplane and no possibility of fire. We have the right solution in hand, and we are ready to go.
"We are all very grateful to our customers for their patience during the past several months," said Conner. "We know it hasn't been easy on them to have their 787s out of service and their deliveries delayed. We look forward to helping them get back into service as quickly as possible."
Boeing has deployed teams to locations around the world to begin installing improved battery systems on 787s. Kits with the parts needed for the new battery systems are staged for shipment and new batteries also will be shipped immediately. Teams have been assigned to customer locations to install the new systems.  Airplanes will be modified in approximately the order they were delivered.
"The Boeing team is ready to help get our customers' 787s back in the air where they belong," said Conner.
Boeing will also begin installing the changes on new airplanes at the company's two 787 final-assembly plants, with deliveries expected to resume in the weeks ahead. Despite the disruption in deliveries that began in January, Boeing expects to complete all planned 2013 deliveries by the end of the year. Boeing further expects that the 787 battery issue will have no significant impact to its 2013 financial guidance.

 

FAA says 787 decision to some "soon" and are re-examing ETOPS certification

FAA chief Mike Huerta, testified yesterday that the FA has all the documentation that Boeing has submitted to re-certify the 787 lithium ion batteries and that a decision will come soon but they won't be rushed into a decision.  He said that the FAA will approve it when "we are satisfied Boeing has shown the redesigned battery system meets FAA requirements."  Boeing is ready to go and start implementing the modifications once the FAA has signed off which may come as early as this week.  Several carriers (Qatar Airways and Ethiopian) have said that they plan to resume 787 revenue service as early as this month.  ANA and JAL are expecting a return to service next month and United expects to be flying again late in May. No word on when LOT Polish, LAN, or Air India will return to service though expect that by mid June they will all be flying the 787 again.

On fly in the ointment is the FAA's review of the 787's ETOPS 180 certification.  This is being done independent of the battery certification.  I'm not sure what the basis of the ETOPs review (other than the battery issue) is on.  If the basis of the review is solely on the battery issue, then I do expect that the FAA should re-affirm the ETOPS 180 certification as the battery containment system will add a level of safety to the airplane in the event of a thermal runaway in the battery such that it won't bring down the aircraft and should allow the aircraft enough time to divert to an airport.

It also seems to me that if Boeing wants to certify the 787 for ETOPs 330 they will need to run new certification flights for that purpose using the battery and the new containment system in different failure modes. Given that the 787-9 launch customer, Air New Zealand, requires ETOPs 330 when they take delivery, I expect that these tests will take place by the end of the year or very early in the 1st quarter of 2014.

Is there a chance that the FAA can restrict the 787s ability to fly ETOPS (either partially or fully)? Absolutely. Will they do it is another question but I am sure Boeing is in communication with them on this issue as well as ETOPs 330.

I still do expect that Boeing will resume deliveries by middle to late May if the approval is given soon (this week) but there probably are political considerations for the FAA before the approval is given. We'll see.  Scott Hamilton expects approval after the NTSB hearings on the 787 battery certification that is to take place on April 23-24.

 

FAA expected to respond to Boeing 787 proposal next week. Longer grounding expected.

Today Michael Huerta, the FAA chief, testified before a House subcommittee on aviation that he expects that his staff will complete their review of Boeing's return to flight proposal next week but does caution that "Once we approve the plan, then we have to go through the process of actually implementing the plan, which will involve a great deal of testing, a great deal of further analysis and re-engineering before these planes are back in the air".

He characterized Boeing's plan as comprehensive as it deals with the issues on a cell level, battery level and airplane level, referring the to the multi layers of protection that Boeing had presented last week to the FAA.  Still GS Yuasa has indicated that Boeing should add in protection against external current surges. Obviously GS Yuasa feel that the issues lay not with their battery but from other external factors.  This may complicate Boeing's ability to return the 787 to revenue flight in a timely manner according to an article in the Wall Street Journal.

This indicates that the 787 for customers will be on the ground for much longer than Boeing anticipates.  I am willing to venture that the grounding will last through May with final re-certification of the lithium ion batteries coming around that time and resumption of revenue flight in June. Already many current customers (8 thus far) are planning for resumption of service around the summer time with LOT Polish Airlines planning for a resumption in the fall time though this is probably very extreme.  The Seattle Times has an excellent article about today's testimony and the current situation with regards to the 787.

So what does this mean for the timing of 787 delivery resumption? Boeing will have 23 complete 787s by Feb. 28. If I assume that customer flights resume by the end May which would mean that customer deliveries won't resume until the end of the second quarter as Boeing would need a month of pre-delivery ground and flight tests before they can deliver new 787s.

This means another 4 months of 787s coming off the final assembly lines in Everett and Charleston at a rate of 5/month.  This means Boeing would add another 20 787s that will be stored around the two final assembly locations.  Additionally, I believe that Boeing will also have finished 2 787s that are currently undergoing change incorporation at the Everett Modification Center (EMC).  This means that Boeing will have a backlog of about 45 787s waiting to be delivered.  The 45 would be split 34 Dreamliners at Everett and 11 at Charleston.  This number will create a storage challenge for Boeing at both locations.  Some of these airplanes have had flight tests (5 airplanes) but would need further tests in light of the enhanced battery protection measures that Boeing will install.  If Boeing is to attempt to deliver more than 60 787s, they would have to deliver 10/month for the second half of the year. 

Also what is unclear is how this will affect Boeing's plan to test and certify the 787-9 the first of which should be ready for flight by late August to early September.  Additionally, it is unknown how all this affect Boeing's efforts to certify the 787 for ETOPS 330 though I would expect that the FAA will have additional conditions that Boeing will have to meet in order to allow the 330 minute limit for the 787s. Air New Zealand, the first 787-9 customer needs to have the aircraft certified for ETOPS 330 by the time it takes delivery.

 

Possible Delivery Delay for GEnx powered 787?

Given that the delays to the 787 for ANA are well documented, Boeing is pushing hard to get three more Dreamliners into the hands of the airline before the end of the year. The revised delivery schedule for this month shows that ZA116 should deliver around Dec. 27 with ZA104 and ZA102 delivering on Dec. 30th. Of course this is all subject to change.

The knock on effects maybe felt to the GEnx powered 787s. Let's review first. Boeing has flown almost all the test points for FAA certification of the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787. The remaining test points that need to be completed is functionality and reliability testing and ETOPs testing. Now Boeing completed some of this testing on the flight test version of the aircraft but the FAA requires that some portion of this testing to be done on a production version of the plane. Boeing has assigned ZA236 (L/N 35, VT-ANH). When Boeing ran the F&R/ETOPs testing on the Trent-1000 version of the airplane it was done on ZA102 (which is being prepared for delivery) and lasted about 300 hours.

I am assuming that Boeing will have to fly a similar number of hours for the GE powered machine but some of those hours have been done on the test flight birds (ZA005 and ZA006). It is unknown how many more hours will be needed to finish certification testing.

ZA236 has yet to fly and it seems that resources have been diverted from preparing this airplane for flight to preparing the three aforementioned ANA 787s for delivery. Flightblogger had reported that Boeing was to fly ZA236 by the middle of this month but it's now looking that it will be later this month. For the Trent-1000 version, Boeing conducted the 300 hour F&R/ETOPs over a 51 day period during this past summer. Assuming that Boeing has to only fly half that amount (150 hours) with ZA236 (with the rest already done by the test aircraft) which means about 3 to 4 weeks of flight tests and that testing starts soon after the New Year, the test program can wrap up around the end of January. Figure a couple of weeks before the FAA issues the amended type certificate (middle of February) then deliveries can take place start in middle to late February. This is assuming that there aren't any production issues holding up these airplanes and no unexpected issues that are revealed during the final F&R/ETOPs testing.

Boeing's delivery forecast for the GEnx-1B was very early 2012 (January) and internal documents up until last week had Boeing delivering the first to Japan Airlines in January 2012. This is now not the case as the situation is still very fluid.

Boeing to attempt 4 787 deliveries in December

According to a source, Boeing will now attempt to deliver 4 787 in the month of December instead of 2 as I had previously reported.


In addition to JA805A (L/N31,ZA116) and JA807A (L/N41, ZA104); Boeing will also try to deliver JA804A (L/N9, ZA102) and JA808A (L/N42, ZA 105).

L/N 9 has already flown as it took part in the certification test program when it conducted F&R/ETOPs testing for the 787/Trent-1000 combination. Boeing should be able to deliver this airplane though it still needs to conduct pre-delivery test flights. Of the four airplanes that are mentioned above, only L/N 31 is flying customer and Boeing pre-delivery flights. It it anticipated that this airplane should be delivered within the next one week, before Christmas time.

The other three have yet to fly and are all scheduled to be delivered just before New Year'e Eve (2011 in case you were wondering). L/N 42 was to have flown on Dec. 13th and it is still not on the flightline as of yet. L/N 41 is supposed to fly on the 16th of December.

Additionally, it was revealed that Boeing has penciled in three 787 deliveries for next month. L/N 23 (JA822J, ZA177) will be the first 787 with GEnx-1B engines delivered to a customer. This airplane has just returned from San Antonio where it was undergoing change incorporation. It has received a new paint job (which has underwhelmed the aviation geek community) though I don't know if it has its customer interiors fitted as of yet. L/N 35 (VT-ANH, ZA236) for Air India is also due to be delivered in January. This airplane is supposed to start ETOPs/F&R testing in support of the certification test program for the GEnx powered 787s. According to Flightblogger, this airplane is to have it's first flight around the middle of December so far nothing yet. Lastly, L/N 40 (JA806A, ZA117) will also be delivered to ANA in January. This aircraft is still at EMC. Nothing is certain with these three airplanes and their delivery dates are dependent on getting the work done on them as well as finishing up ETOPS and F&R testing on the GEnx powerplant.

This is quite an ambitious schedule for the next two weeks for Boeing. They are still struggling with the amount of work that has to be done on the 24 or so 787s that are in Everett. Particularly vexing is the amount of work on the early build 787s. As I had mentioned before none these early build 787s are in EMC (yet) or in 40-24. They're all stacked up on the Everett flightline. Most of the deliveries are the late build models which don't require as much work. Even so, the amount of work is so daunting that Boeing is trying hard to get the late build 787s into the air and into the hands of customers. There is a rumor going around that Boeing is pulling people off the 747-8 airplanes that have to be prepared for delivery and putting them on 787. If so then 747 deliveries might fall as a consequence. Boeing has delivered 8 thus far and are planning to deliver 1-2 more 747s.

Time is running out if Boeing is to deliver even two 787s this month let alone 4.

787 officially starts earning revenue; Boeing drops 787/747 delivery forecast for 2011...again

787 Entry into Service

The 787 Dreamliner officially entered into airline revenue service with ANA flight 7871 flying from Narita, Tokyo to Hong Kong's Chek Lap Kok International Airport. The start of revenue service allows the opportunity to hear about the passenger experience from those not connected to the airline or to the manufacturer. Initial passenger reaction has been very positive especially with the dimmable windows as well as the noise level of the aircraft. One of Boeing's aims was to greatly improve the passenger experience while on board the airplane and it seems that they have accomplished just that. Overall this is a very promising start the the 787s service life though it's only one flight. Boeing has prepared for this day over the course of 7 years and with the delays have aimed to mature many of the systems that are on the 787.

Orders and Deliveries

the last month has been a mixed bag for Boeing in terms of orders and deliveries for Boeing. They did deliver the first two 787s to ANA and has supported the airline's efforts to put the airplane into service but the news from the order's front does dampen some of the enthusiasm stemming from the start of deliveries. China Eastern Airlines has cancelled their order for 24 787s and has decided to take 45 737s. Boeing has since said that they expect more cancellations though they would give a number. One of those might be a partial cancellation by Air India. The financially troubled airline which is run by government bureaucrats instead of airline executives, has concluded that they ordered too many aircraft when they placed a huge widebody order with Boeing in 2005. They want to cut the 787 order by more than half to 12 airplanes from the original 27 that they have on order. Presumably Boeing and Air India have entered into discussions about the 787 order but currently Boeing has several 787 already built and undergoing change incorporation. Two of them also have engines hung.

ANA did announce that they expect to have 7 Dreamliner's delivered to them by the end of the year (thanks to Flightblogger for Tweeting that particular bit of news). This bit of news is very interesting given Boeing's announcement this morning that they will deliver 15-20 787s and 747-8 this year. The reason for the reduction in estimated deliveries is due to the amount of time needed for change incorporation. During the earnings conference call, Boeing estimated that about 2/3 of this range will be 747-8 deliveries and the rest 787-8. This two pieces of information indicates that Boeing will probably deliver 5-8 787 (with 8 being the more likely number) and 10-12 747-8. Of the 8 787s delivered, I believe there will be 7 going to ANA and one GEnx aircraft possibly to Air India. Given the dynamics of the Air India situation and the pace of re-work on the $18bn of 787 inventory sitting at Everett, the number delivered will be very fluid.

I have received information that as of now Boeing is not planning any 787 deliveries for November though that may change. A reasonable measure of how close a 787 is to being delivered is when the aircraft has been fitted with its engines. Currently only a handful of 787s have their engines attached including two that were flown to Boeing's facility at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas. There are probably three other airplanes that I know of that have engines attached (LN 31, LN 35 and possibly LN 38). There are 5 other airplanes including 3 for ANA that are in the Everett Modification Center (EMC or otherwise known as ATS) that are undergoing re-work and could quite possibly have their engines on. These are later build airplanes (LN 40, LN 41, and LN 42) which don't require much re-work to be ready for service. It is quite possible that these airplanes would be ready for delivery in late November to December. Other airplanes that would be ready for delivery include LN 7 and LN 9 which was used for Boeing's ETOPs and F&R testing.

Speaking of re-work, Boeing is reporting improved build of parts that are flowing into Everett and they are projecting that the production system will reach a point where most if not all change incorporation will not be needed by airplane 60.

Production and Testing

First the testing update. Boeing reported that the testing program on the GEnx-1B powered 787 is well into the F&R/ETOPs phase and overall they are 95% complete with testing of this model. ZA006 is the only aircraft that is dedicated to F&R/ETOPS testing as Boeing is not using a production standard aircraft for this testing (they probably convinced the FAA that it is not necessary to use a production standard aircraft for some reason).

Additionally, ZA004 which has been conducting flight tests with the Trent 1000 package "B" engines has probably wrapped up most of the flight testing (it has not flown since Oct. 19) though I don't know if they have to do ETOPS/F&R testing using the modified engines or not. Boeing is planning to deliver the first 787 equipped with the package "B" Trent 1000 sometime in December as it will be these 787s that ANA will start using on long haul international flights.

Now on to production. Now that Boeing has most of the 787-8 flight testing and development out of the way, they can proceed with focusing on reducing inventory ($18bn now) and ramping up assembly. Certainly having the North Charleston line open will help but right now many of the techs there are building LN 46 very slowly as they are in the process of learning their job. However, Boeing needs to clear the 40 some odd 787s that are listed as work in process (WIP). 38-39 are at Everett while two more are at San Antonio. Change incorporation is going slowly especially with the early build aircraft that I anticipate that most of the WIP aircraft won't be cleared until late next year. However Boeing did announce that they will be increasing the 787 production rate to 2.5/month starting this week (I'm projecting this Sunday) starting with LN 50 which is for Ethiopian Airlines. It seems that Boeing is planning for another rate increase very soon after going to 2.5 as they are reporting that the supplier base is positioned for further rate hikes very soon though timing and rate of these increases is still a matter of speculation. I'm thinking that Boeing can increase the rate to 3 or 3.5 by February. Boeing is still reiterating their position that they will be able to produce 10 787/month by the end of 2013. After that rate has stabilized over a course of 1 to 2 years Boeing sees that 787 unit revenue will exceed unit cost by around 2014-2015. The program won't be profitable after about 10 years of production. They have now set their accounting block for the 787 program at 1,100 units (they are spreading all development costs across 1,100 airplanes). Of course this is all predicated on Boeing reaching the 10/month goal by the end of 2013.

787 type certification today, first delivery in 31 days, EIS in 60 days

Boeing will receive the amended type certificate for the Rolls Royce powered 787-8 today which will set off a countdown to the type's first delivery and first revenue flight. There will be a ceremony at Everett marking the occasion with ZA001 to serve as a backdrop to the ceremony (it's currently at the Boeing Delivery Center in Everett) where Randy Babbit, the FAA Administrator will speak along with other guests and ZA002 is looking to do a fly past during the ceremony coming from Boeing Field. Both the FAA and EASA will hand over the certification documents to Boeing today as well as the amended production certificate (APC) from the FAA for the 787 production.

Boeing is continuing flight tests on the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787. They should be starting F&R/ETOPS testing soon though date still has not been made public. 60% of Boeing's 787 order book will be equipped with the GEnx engine thus type certification of this engine/airframe combination is crucial.

Boeing and ANA have said that first delivery ceremony will occur on September 26th (31 days from now) but the contratual delivery will occur on September 25th (this is where all the paperwork is signed and ANA pays for it's airplane) with the aircraft being ferried to Haneda Int'l Airport on September 27th from Everett. 30 days after ANA formally accepts the first 787 the airline will run it's first revenue flight from Haneda to Hong Kong (a charter flight). Starting on November 1st the 787 will be put on regular scheduled service between Haneda and Okyama and Hiroshima.

ANA also plans to commence international 787 service from Haneda going to Beijing in December, 2011 and Frankfurt in January, 2012.

Here's Boeing's announcement on first delivery:

ANA, Boeing Set Date for First 787 Dreamliner Delivery

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) and ANA will celebrate delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner on Sept. 26 in Everett, Wash., after contractual delivery occurs on Sept. 25. Events throughout the day on Sept. 26 will commemorate delivery of this game changing airplane to its launch customer.

"The airplane is ready. ANA is ready. And, Boeing is ready," said Jim Albaugh, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "This airplane begins a new chapter in aviation history."

ANA's airplane will arrive in Tokyo on Sept. 28, following a Sept. 27 departure from Everett, Wash., and will be greeted by ANA employees, media and Japanese partners. Details of events in Everett and Tokyo will be provided in the weeks ahead. Many of the events will be webcast live, allowing people around the world to participate in the celebration.

Shinichiro Ito, president and CEO of ANA Group, said, "As launch customer, we are delighted to be taking delivery of our first 787 Dreamliner. This aircraft will enable us to offer new standards of service and comfort to our passengers and will play an important role in our international expansion strategy as we seek to become Asia's number one airline."

ANA launched the 787 program with a record-setting order of 50 airplanes in April 2004. The airline has played a key role in guiding the design of the Dreamliner.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is an all-new commercial jetliner that brings new efficiencies to airlines and delivers superior comfort to passengers. The airplane features the industry's largest windows, a lower cabin altitude and cleaner air. These features combine to allow passengers to arrive at their destinations more refreshed.

Here's Boeing's press release on receiving FAA and EASA type certification:

Boeing 787 Dreamliner Receives FAA, EASA Certification

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) received certification for the all-new 787 Dreamliner from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) during a ceremony at the company's Everett, Wash., facility.

FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt presented the U.S. Type Certificate, which verifies that the 787 has been tested and found to be in compliance with all federal regulations, to 787 Chief Pilot Mike Carriker and 787 Vice President and Chief Project Engineer Mike Sinnett, both of whom have worked on the program since the day it began.

Babbitt presented the amended Production Certificate 700 to John Cornish, vice president of 787 Final Assembly & Delivery, and Barb O'Dell, vice president of Quality for the 787 program. The Production Certificate adds the 787 to the list of Boeing Commercial Airplane production systems that have been found to be compliant with all federal regulations.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Jim Albaugh said, "Certification is a milestone that validates what we have promised the world since we started talking about this airplane. This airplane embodies the hopes and dreams of everyone fortunate enough to work on it. Their dreams are now coming true."

Patrick Goudou, executive director of EASA, presented Dan Mooney, vice president of 787-8 Development, and Terry Beezhold, former leader of the 787 Airplane Level Integration Team, with the European Type Certificate for the 787.

Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program for Boeing, wrapped up the event addressing the broad team of those who worked on the program.

"This is truly a great airplane. From the advanced materials and innovative technologies to the improved passenger experience and unbeatable economics, the 787 really is a game-changing airplane," Fancher said.

Progress

One down one to go. Boeing has completed the ETOPs portion of F&R/ETOPs testing phase leaving only about 80 hours of F&R testing and the submittal of the final documents to the FAA as the final hurdle to type certification of the 787. Of course the GEnx powered 787 will have to replicate the testing that ZA102 has accomplished so far and Boeing will have to do the 330 minute ETOPs testing early next year after they implement a software change. The current ETOPS certification is for 180 minute ETOPs.

Another sign of progress...Boeing will roll out the first 787 to be delivered to a customer (ZA101) this Saturday fully painted and furnished with the interior that ANA has chosen. This is another important milestone that Boeing has been trying to reach for well over 3 years. Type certification should come around mid September with first delivery to follow soon thereafter.

787 still faces uphill production issues as flight testing winds down

UPDATE (8/2/2011): ZA233 is now expected to have its B-1 test flight today. The sensor in question was not connected propoerly and the issue has now been rectified. It should be flown to Lackland AFB in San Antonio Texas in about a week or so.

Boeing's 787 program is currently winding up the flight testing and certification program for the 787 as ZA102 has flown more than 2/3 of the needed 300 flight test hours for the F&R/ETOPs flight testing campaign. This aircraft just returned from more than two weeks for flight testing around the western Pacific flying out of Guam. According to the latest stats, ZA102 has completed about 218 hours which puts it on track to complete the final phase of 787 testing in about 11 to 12 days (assuming 7 flight hours per day). Given that Boeing would wait about 30 days for final type certification from the FAA, this would give Boeing the opportunity to finally start deliveries to ANA around mid September. Indeed ANA has announced that the 787 will fly charter service between Narita and Hong Kong starting in October, one month after receiving it's first 787. However, questions are arising as to the timing of future deliveries to ANA and other customers after the first delivery.

As Boeing prepares for the delivery of ZA101 it is currently in the midst of another 787 assembly stoppage in 40-26 as issues with the assembly completion of the rear fuselage sections is forcing Boeing to institute this halt. It appears that Boeing will have these start and stop production hiccups on the 787 final assembly line for the foreseeable future and this is going to complicate Boeing's attempts to ramp up to 10/month by the end of 2013. They're were planning to be at a 2.5 production rate during this summer but now they're saying that the 787 line in Everett will be at 2.5 sometime in 2011. My opinion is that Boeing will not reach 10/month until sometime in mid/ late 2014. The ongoing change incorporation program along with supplier challenges will continue to weigh down the 787 production rate in the near term.

Even so Boeing is still experiencing issues in getting the 30 787s that they have assembled ready for customers. With Boeing trying to correct many of the supplier defects in parts as well as incorporate the changes mandated by the FAA as a result of test flying, Boeing is still having trouble getting planes ready for delivery. Re-work is simply taking way too much time due to the amount of work that has to be done on each airplane though later airplanes need less time in re-work. We have to all stay tuned for development regarding this issue in the 787 program. Boeing has reduced its guidance ithat they will deliver this year (from upwards of 40 to now upwards of 30). It is understoood that the number of 787s will comprise the majority if not all of the reduction guidance.

Lastly, ZA233, a 787 for Air India made it first flight today (July 31, 2011) but unfortunately lasted only 15 minutes as the aircraft an inflight anomoly which they said is a failed sensor. Boeing is currently checking all these sensors in the assembled aircraft. This airplane is scheduled to make the trip to San Antonio for change incorporation and re-work and then be delivered to Air India by the end of the this year. This issue is not expected to cause any delays.

787/747 Update

Boeing continues to make steady progress towards the 787's delivery target schedule for sometime next month or the month after. ZA102 (LN9) has already flow about 86.25 hours of the approximately 300 hours needed to to complete F&R/ETOPs testing as of July 10th. Currently the airplane is in Hawaii for tests and will be returning to Paine Field today.

ZA002 has just completed SROV testing in Japan with final testing between Tokyo and Nagoya. From all indications, the testing went very well and the production aircraft will be service ready when they start reaching customers. Here's a recap of ZA002 schedule from the past week in Japan:

Flight 1 LV. SEA 7-3-11 5AM ARR. HND 7-4-11 6:30AM
Flight 2 LV. HND 7-5-11 6:30AM ARR. ITM 7-5-11 7:30AM
Flight 3 LV. ITM 7-5-11 11:30AM ARR. HND 7-5-11 12:30AM
Flight 4 LV. HND 7-6-11 6:30AM ARR. KIX 7-6-11 8:00AM
Flight 5 LV. KIX 7-6-11 12:00PM ARR. HND 7-6-11 1:30PM
Flight 6 LV. HND 7-7-11 6:00AM ARR. OKJ 7-7-11 7:30AM
Flight 7 LV. OKJ 7-7-11 11:00AM ARR. HND 7-7-11 12:30PM
Flight 8 LV. HND 7-7-11 3:00PM ARR. HIJ 7-7-11 5:00PM
Flight 9 LV. HIJ 7-7-11 7:00PM ARR. HND 7-7-22 8:30PM
Flight 10 LV. HND 7-10-11 6:25AM ARR. NGO 7-10-11 7:30AM
Flight 11 LV. NGO 7-10-11 6:00PM ARR. HND 7-10-11 6:45PM

When ANA starts revenue service with the 787, the destination will either be Okayama or Hiroshima from its base at Haneda International Airport in Tokyo.

Next stop for ZA002 is India where it will fly be shown to customers Air India and Jet Airways. Air India is expecting it's first 787 in December of this year while Jet Airways will receive its first airplane sometime in 2014. ZA002 will fly from Haneda in Tokyo to Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi and then on to Mumbai. From there it is not known if ZA002 will fly back to Seattle or will fly on to other destination for other visits with customer airlines.

The 787 test fleet continues to fly occasional Boeing test flights with ZA001, ZA003 and ZA005 taking flights over the past week or so.

Production continues at Everett at a rate of two 787s per month. Boeing will starting final assembly on ZA261 (LN44) for Ethiopian Airlines on July 20th but more importantly, the first 787 to be assembled in North Charleston, SC will start final assembly on August 17th. That airplane ZA286 (LN46) for United Airlines already has its wings delivered to the final assembly hall and will be waiting for the forward fuselage from Wichita as well as the center and rear section just next door to the final assembly hall. the horizontal tail plane form Grottaglie, Italy as well as the numerous other parts (tail fin from from Washington State and landing gear) are expected to be delivered soon. Boeing is expected to increase production from 2/month to 2.5/month though it is still unclear when this increase is supposed to happen. The current schedule doesn't show assembly start dates past airplane number 46 which indicates that Boeing is currently reviewing plans for future assembly start dates and thus reviewing the ramp up to the 2.5 rate.

Meanwhile Boeing has added a third 747-8I to the flight test program. The aircraft, RC003/N5020K will be used to perform high intensity radio frequency tests. It is in Southern California currently. The 747-8F F&R testing has continued but RC523 has not carried out any test flights recently. Boeing is very close to finishing off the 747-8F test program and anticipates delivering the first 747-8F to Cargolux this summer.

Boeing starts 787/Trent 1000 F&R and ETOPs Testing

Boeing announced the start of F&R/ETOPs testing today. The sole aircraft that is conducting the tests, ZA102, kicked the testing off yesterday with a seven hour and thirty minute flight along the west coast of the US. This airplane will be conducting all the F&R and ETOPs testing with the Trent 1000 engine.

This phase should last about 300 flight test hours after which Boeing should receive type certification and can proceed with deliveries to ANA around August or September. Given the amount of testing and allowing for maintenance, I anticipate that this final phase of testing should last about 45 days which means a mid August completion for the final phase of testing.

Boeing will still have to submit any remaining deliverables to the FAA and EASA and they would take at least a couple of weeks to issue the final type certification for the 787. Therefore, it is looking like an early to mid September delivery time frame for the 787 to ANA.

F&R is testing that measures the production aircraft's response to normal as well off-normal operations which would include simulated engine and systems failures. This testing is only to certify the Trent-1000/787 engine airframe combination.

Boeing is still in discussions with the FAA regarding F&R/ETOPs testing for the GEnx version. Until those discussions are completed it is unknown which aircraft(s) with the GEnx-1B engines will be used for those tests. It is anticipated that GE F&R/ETOPs should start around August. Given this time frame the GEnx powered 787 should be delivered to Japan Airlines around October.

Meanwhile Boeing is still using the other airplanes for testing purposes. ZA001 just returned from Europe and the Paris Air Show and will be spending a week at Boeing Charleston as workers prepare to load the first 787 into the tooling fixtures at that plant. ZA002 will be making the trip to Japan for service ready validation operational validation. That airplane will be there for about a week conducting those tests. ZA003 is conducting Boeing test flights to evaluate the hybrid laminar flow control system proposed for the 787-9. ZA004 is conducting nautical air miles tests (NAMS) using the package "B" Trent 1000 engines. This testing will be used to evaluate the improved fuel efficiency over the package "A" Trents. ZA005 and ZA006 will continue certification flight tests with the GEnx-1Bs.

Here's Boeing Press Release on the start of F&R/ETOPs:

Boeing Begins Final Phase of 787 Flight Testing

EVERETT, Wash., June 27, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) yesterday started Function & Reliability (F&R) testing and extended operations (ETOPS) demonstrations on the 787 Dreamliner. This is the final phase of flight testing prior to certification of the airplane.

"We are ready for this final phase of flight testing," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "The team has created a solid plan for accomplishing the hours and test points required for F&R and ETOPS testing in support of delivery to our customer ANA in the August to September time period."

F&R testing simulates various normal and non-normal operations for the airplane, in a realistic airline-like flight environment. ETOPS refers to extended operations – for twin jets, flights that are more than 60 minutes away from a suitable landing field. During ETOPS demonstrations the company validates the airplane's ability to safely divert for a variety of reasons, including long diversions with one engine shut down.

In addition to F&R and ETOPS testing for the 787 with Rolls-Royce engines, Boeing continues certification testing on 787s with General Electric engines and will conduct a separate F&R/ETOPS test program for that version of the airplane. Other activities will continue on the flight test fleet to support Boeing objectives including examining potential technologies for the 787-9 and testing engine improvement packages.