Boeing-Iran deal....no 787

A little more detail came out regarding the proposed commercial aircraft deal between Boeing and Iran.  There are no 787s in the deal but here is the breakout:

Direct purchase:
4 x 747-8I
15 x 777-9
15 x 777-300ER
6 x 737 NG
40 x 737MAX

Lease:
29 x 737 NG

In an unrelated note to follow up my previous blog post.  ZB416 (LN 447, JA880A) will fly its C-1 flight on July 21st after returning from Farnborough.  The aircraft is due to be delivered on July 26th.  Thus it appears Boeing will deliver 14 787s this month, not 15.

Tidbits from the Boeing Investors Conference

Here are some main points from today's Boeing Investor's Conference

• 787 sold out beyond 2012
• 737 Sold out through 2012
• 787 facility in Charleston will be self sufficient
• Use 787 earnings toward 737 successor/re-engine and 777 improvements/777NG
• Expect 787 margins to grow over time
• 787 production model is the future just need to get it right
• Commercial aircraft orders for Boeing to be better this year vs last year
• 787 has not flown as many hours as they had hoped to have at this point but efficiency of flights are high
• 747-8 TIA to be in hand in a few days
• Talking to customers about either re-engining the 737 or building a whole new airplane
• Improved on 787 final assembly costs; take out about half the cost of final assembly for airplanes 7 to 21
• 747-8I has 70% of detailed engineering completed
• Boeing adds a fourth 747-8F to the flight test program
• 737 plans to be announced this fall
• 787-9 final configuration this fall; start final assembly of first 787-9 in 1st quarter 2012
• Reducing weight on the 787-9; hope to have it fly 8,150 nautical miles
• Plan to incorporate -9 weight savings into the 787-8 to improve that airplane
• Boeing completed 1,450 test conditions on the 787 flight test; retired a significant amount of risk
• No major changes required on the 787
• Boeing has a day to day plan to finish test flight and achieve certification
• Boeing needs less than 90 hours/month per aircraft of flight time to certify the 787
• ZA100 power on planned for summer
• 787 is aerodynamically stable no need to change the outside lines
• Boeing has already flown or tested extreme conditions on the 787
• 5th 787 to fly in the next few weeks (ZA005)
• Boeing now transitioning from testing phase to demonstration phase
• Seeing improvements in production and in the supply chain
• Boeing will see almost a 70% increase in completion between airplane 23 and airplane 16
• 50 pilots have flown the 787
• Shear tie issue not a huge concern; did not drive the decision to halt deliveries to Everett
• GEnx-1B powered 787 to be certified in 1st quarter of 2011
• Submittal of FAA required docs and testing to be done before November for certification purposes.

If anyone had listened to the conference and wishes to add anything significant, please contact me.

UA/CO Merger - My take on it's future fleet

With so much to take in with the UA-CO merger here's my quick take on their fleet composition...at the end of the day United is going to have a mix fleet of Boeing and Airbus. They'll keep the 787NG and the A320s in their fleet and I expect that all the current narrowbody orders will be kept intact.

I do think however that between the two fleets there will be a change in the widebody orders that are currently on the books.There are still 3 777-200ERs (for CO) as well as the the 787s and A350s:
3 x 777-200ER (CO)
36 x 787-8 (25 UA and 11 CO)
14 x 787-9 (CO)
25 x A350-900 (UA)

I do think that there may be too many widebodies on order here for both carriers combined and thus some part of this total order is going to be cancelled. Given that the 787-8 is going to be the prevalent type (CO/UA will be taking delivery starting next year), I think the A350 order will be cancelled and maybe some 787-8s. I think the new UA will be taking at least 25 787-8 and all the 787-9. They may even opt for more 787-9s.

As far as the narrowbodies are concerned. Look for UA to continue to take delivery of the remainder of the 737/A320 orders but after that the airlines is going to wait and see what both manufacturers turn out in terms of the either the re engined narrowbody or next gen narrowbody. UA might even opt for the C-Series.

American Airlines 767 with winglets

Jon Ostrower posted some pics and an article of the first American Airlines 767-300ER fitted out with Aviation Partners Boeing winglets. Read it here here and here. AA and Aviation Partners will flight test the 767 for the next four months for FAA certification. Read the press release here.

What does this mean for a potential AA 787 order. In my opinion it really doesn't change anything. Boeing's backlog for the 787 is out to 2017 or so and AA is in no financial position to order the 787. They want to get rid of the MD-80s in their fleet first and replace them with the 737NGs. In the meantime they can refit the 767s with the winglets to achieve a 5 to 6 percent fuel savings. AA will be in no hurry to replace the 767s just yet but they will probably start to take a look at the 787 in a couple years.