UPDATE: CAAC, the Chinese aviation regulator has approved the 787 for use by the country's airlines today (5/23/13). China Southern shortly followed by Hainan should be taking delivery next week. Pilots from both carriers should be conducting customer test flights within the next few days, perhaps as early as today.
Thanks to our blog readers CX880 and Weijie Deng, a firmer picture now has emerged regarding the start of 787 deliveries to Chinese carriers. A team from China Southern Airlines is in Seattle to conduct customer flight(s) and to complete paperwork needed for delivery and payments. China's aviation regulators are expected to give its approval for its carriers to operate the 787 on May 27th and China Southern is expected to formally take delivery on May 28th. I expect China Southern to take delivery of 8 787s this year. The first one to be delivered will be ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725).
Hainan can also take delivery of up to 2 787s this month from Boeing's Charleston facility. Both ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) and ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) are painted and have completed Boeing test flights and await us timer inspection and test flights. It is unclear if Hainan will take both this month or one but it does appear at the least that the deliveries will be closely spaced to one another. I expect Hainan to take delivery of 6 787s this year.
Showing posts with label CAAC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CAAC. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
2nd JAL 787 suffers another incident, NTSB releases 787 fire preliminary findings
Another eventful day for Boeing and the 787. In a surreal twist from yesterday's events, another JAL 787 in Boston experienced a fuel leak mishap as it was taxiing to the departure runaway for the return flight to Tokyo. According to news reports, the aircraft leaked about 40 gallons of fuel by the time it returned to the terminal. Maintenance crews inspected the aircraft and JAL 007 then departed at around 4pm for Tokyo after a delay of 4 hours.
The aircraft from yesterday's incident (ZA183) is still in Boston as the NTSB assigned two more investigators to team looking into the event from yesterday. The team said that the lithium ion battery fire did cause extensive damage in the battery pack area and the damage was confined to no more than 20 inches away from the source. These batteries are used to start the APU. Boeing in a separate statement that this incident is not related to the other electrical issues that the 787 has faced.
However, Jon Ostrower reported that United Airlines, while inspecting the lithium ion batteries in one of their 787s, found that the wiring to the batteries were incorrectly connected. This does not mean that the same condition existed in ZA183 or caused the fire but it may it disturbing nonetheless and would be looked into as a possible cause of the fire by the NTSB. The battery fire may be a design issue with the battery, a one off manufacturing flaw, or incorrect installation or maintenance of the battery among the many root causes that the investigators have to examine. Despite the two incidents in two days, 787s are still in use by customers around the world and Boeing flew ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728) flew a function check flight. Though Boeing is still working with Chinese regulators to certify the 787 for use by that country's airlines. China Southern is still expecting it's first 787 in March though it is unknown if the fire will set back those plans.
The aircraft from yesterday's incident (ZA183) is still in Boston as the NTSB assigned two more investigators to team looking into the event from yesterday. The team said that the lithium ion battery fire did cause extensive damage in the battery pack area and the damage was confined to no more than 20 inches away from the source. These batteries are used to start the APU. Boeing in a separate statement that this incident is not related to the other electrical issues that the 787 has faced.
However, Jon Ostrower reported that United Airlines, while inspecting the lithium ion batteries in one of their 787s, found that the wiring to the batteries were incorrectly connected. This does not mean that the same condition existed in ZA183 or caused the fire but it may it disturbing nonetheless and would be looked into as a possible cause of the fire by the NTSB. The battery fire may be a design issue with the battery, a one off manufacturing flaw, or incorrect installation or maintenance of the battery among the many root causes that the investigators have to examine. Despite the two incidents in two days, 787s are still in use by customers around the world and Boeing flew ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728) flew a function check flight. Though Boeing is still working with Chinese regulators to certify the 787 for use by that country's airlines. China Southern is still expecting it's first 787 in March though it is unknown if the fire will set back those plans.
Thursday, January 3, 2013
787 Looking Back and Looking Forward: Part 2, 2013 Look Ahead
Now that Boeing has put to bed a very successful 2012 which includes regaining the title as the top commercial aircraft producer (thanks in part to the 787 deliveries that exceeded forecast), what is in store for the Dreamliner program in 2013?
There are several milestones for the 787 program coming up in the year. Among those are:
787-9/787-10
Assembly and 1st flight of the first 787-9. Assembly should start around early June and I anticipate that aircraft will be out about 1 month later to begin gauntlet testing in the run up for first flight in late summer or early fall. I expect Boeing to have 3 airplanes flying the certification testing and will be refurbished and delivered to customers after the planned 6 month test flight program is concluded. Boeing is still aiming for first delivery to Air New Zealand in mid 2014.
Launch of the 787-10 variant with significant orders from major Boeing customers which may include British Airways, Qatar Airways and others.
Production and Delivery
Boeing had executed extremely well on its plan to increase 787 production from 1.5/month to 5/month at the end of the year. Boeing's plan for production in 2013 was laid out in a conference call to investors. The plan is for Boeing to maintain the current 5/month rate through the middle of 2013 (end of June, perhaps) at which point they will break rate and go to 7/month and finally break rate again in late 2013 to the final 10/month rate.
How many can Boeing build in 2013 and how many they can deliver are two different numbers. There is a lag between the break in rate and when the first aircraft assembled at the new rate is delivered. Thus it is a couple of months before the increase in production rate translates to an increase in the delivery rate.
Production Forecast:
Thus for the production rate Boeing would see a build rate of 30 787s for the first 6 months of 2013 (5/month for 6 months), followed by a build rate of 35 787s for the following 5 months (7/month for 5 months). Followed by a build rate in December of 10/month. Therefore, this total indicates that Boeing is capable of assembling a total of 75 787s during 2013.
Delivery Forecast:
I am going to attempt to quantify Boeing deliveries for 2013 but I have to make certain assumptions:
1) Boeing will produce at a rate of 5/month through June, 2013 then break to 7/month starting in July, 2013 and maintain that through November 2013. In December 2013 Boeing will move to 10/month. This is based on currently available information.
2) I'm assuming that there would be 9 week lag between the break from 5/month to 7/month, therefore the first 787 to deliver at 7/month would be in September, 2013. Even though there is a break in production rate in December to 10/month this rate won't translate to a 10/month delivery rate until 2014.
3) The numbers don't account for production of 787-9s for testing purposes. I am only looking at deliveries of 787s to customers in 2013.
4) As a point of reference, the first 787 for Royal Brunei Airlines is expected to be delivered around September 1, 2013 according to the airline. I am assuming that September will be the first month of 7 Dreamliner deliveries from the final assembly lines.
5) Since I don't have the firing order for L/N 131 and beyond I am assuming the following deliver rates for the remainder: 4 aircraft in September and 7 each in the last three months of 2013. This is a total of 25. L/N 128 to L/N 130 will assumed to be delivered in September as well for a total of 7 aircraft delivered in that month.
6) Boeing will deliver 12 787s that will undergo change incorporation but this number may grow to 15. As of January 1, 2013, Boeing has 26 787s that are under going or will under go change incorporation in preparation for delivery to customers. This includes the last three test 787-8 (L/N 4 to L/N 6 with the last one already well into the change incorporation cycle.
7) I am assuming that all 787s earmarked for the Chinese carriers thus far will be delivered in 2013 (deliveries to start in March). I am also assuming that L/N 6 and L/N 17 will deliver but the customers are unknown at this time. L/N 17 was originally earmarked for Royal Air Maroc but will be delivered to another 787 customer instead.
Given these assumption let's break up the deliveries between aircraft coming straight off the final assembly line and those that still require re-work through the Everett Modification Center or in San Antonio.
I am projecting that Boeing can deliver 76 787s from all three final assembly lines during 2013. As a point of reference, the first 787 for Royal Brunei Airlines should enter final assembly around late July and deliver about 2 months later in very early September. I am projecting that from September to December that the delivery rate will be 7/month.
For the rework airplanes, I am projecting 12 787s that are going through the EMC and San Antonio (ZA006) will be delivered in 2013 but Boeing may be able to squeeze 3 more (ZA230, ZA231, and ZA115) if the modification process becomes more efficient. Boeing is now going to work on 787s that need more time at the EMC due to all the re-work that has to be performed. The tables below summarizes my projections:
Disclaimer
While I try to be as accurate as I can the projections are my opinion and actual delivery numbers more likely differ from my estimate. There are unforseen issues that can crop upo similar to the issues that held up deliveries to Air India, Qatar Airways and the Chinese carriers. Additionally, labor strife may once again become a hinderance to deliveries this year if the engineers of SPEEA go on strike. Word is that a strike may be authorized in Februrary. Boeing and SPEEA are to go back to the Federal Mediator on January 9th to try and come to an agreement. If one isn't forth coming then the strike will severely slow down production of all Boeing jetliners as well as significantly slow down the testing and certification of the 787-9. Boeing can make up some work by using managment engineers but it won't be enough to fill the void. The other issue is the need to manage the production rate increases carefully. 2012 showed that Boeign can do this but they were very measured in their approach last year. In 2013 Boeing will be more aggresive with the 787 rate increase (two rate jumps from 5 to 7 and then from 7 to 10) and any issues can mean serious trouble not unlike the production snafus in the late 1990s.
Boeing ended 2012 on an excellent note by regaining it's former position as the top commercial aircraft producer (thanks to the 46 787 deliveries). Boeing is poised to continue that dominance but there will be issues that Boeing will need to resolve if 2013 is to be more successful in 787 deliveries than 2012. We'll see how it tuens out.
There are several milestones for the 787 program coming up in the year. Among those are:
787-9/787-10
Assembly and 1st flight of the first 787-9. Assembly should start around early June and I anticipate that aircraft will be out about 1 month later to begin gauntlet testing in the run up for first flight in late summer or early fall. I expect Boeing to have 3 airplanes flying the certification testing and will be refurbished and delivered to customers after the planned 6 month test flight program is concluded. Boeing is still aiming for first delivery to Air New Zealand in mid 2014.
Launch of the 787-10 variant with significant orders from major Boeing customers which may include British Airways, Qatar Airways and others.
Production and Delivery
Boeing had executed extremely well on its plan to increase 787 production from 1.5/month to 5/month at the end of the year. Boeing's plan for production in 2013 was laid out in a conference call to investors. The plan is for Boeing to maintain the current 5/month rate through the middle of 2013 (end of June, perhaps) at which point they will break rate and go to 7/month and finally break rate again in late 2013 to the final 10/month rate.
How many can Boeing build in 2013 and how many they can deliver are two different numbers. There is a lag between the break in rate and when the first aircraft assembled at the new rate is delivered. Thus it is a couple of months before the increase in production rate translates to an increase in the delivery rate.
Production Forecast:
Thus for the production rate Boeing would see a build rate of 30 787s for the first 6 months of 2013 (5/month for 6 months), followed by a build rate of 35 787s for the following 5 months (7/month for 5 months). Followed by a build rate in December of 10/month. Therefore, this total indicates that Boeing is capable of assembling a total of 75 787s during 2013.
Delivery Forecast:
I am going to attempt to quantify Boeing deliveries for 2013 but I have to make certain assumptions:
1) Boeing will produce at a rate of 5/month through June, 2013 then break to 7/month starting in July, 2013 and maintain that through November 2013. In December 2013 Boeing will move to 10/month. This is based on currently available information.
2) I'm assuming that there would be 9 week lag between the break from 5/month to 7/month, therefore the first 787 to deliver at 7/month would be in September, 2013. Even though there is a break in production rate in December to 10/month this rate won't translate to a 10/month delivery rate until 2014.
3) The numbers don't account for production of 787-9s for testing purposes. I am only looking at deliveries of 787s to customers in 2013.
4) As a point of reference, the first 787 for Royal Brunei Airlines is expected to be delivered around September 1, 2013 according to the airline. I am assuming that September will be the first month of 7 Dreamliner deliveries from the final assembly lines.
5) Since I don't have the firing order for L/N 131 and beyond I am assuming the following deliver rates for the remainder: 4 aircraft in September and 7 each in the last three months of 2013. This is a total of 25. L/N 128 to L/N 130 will assumed to be delivered in September as well for a total of 7 aircraft delivered in that month.
6) Boeing will deliver 12 787s that will undergo change incorporation but this number may grow to 15. As of January 1, 2013, Boeing has 26 787s that are under going or will under go change incorporation in preparation for delivery to customers. This includes the last three test 787-8 (L/N 4 to L/N 6 with the last one already well into the change incorporation cycle.
7) I am assuming that all 787s earmarked for the Chinese carriers thus far will be delivered in 2013 (deliveries to start in March). I am also assuming that L/N 6 and L/N 17 will deliver but the customers are unknown at this time. L/N 17 was originally earmarked for Royal Air Maroc but will be delivered to another 787 customer instead.
Given these assumption let's break up the deliveries between aircraft coming straight off the final assembly line and those that still require re-work through the Everett Modification Center or in San Antonio.
I am projecting that Boeing can deliver 76 787s from all three final assembly lines during 2013. As a point of reference, the first 787 for Royal Brunei Airlines should enter final assembly around late July and deliver about 2 months later in very early September. I am projecting that from September to December that the delivery rate will be 7/month.
For the rework airplanes, I am projecting 12 787s that are going through the EMC and San Antonio (ZA006) will be delivered in 2013 but Boeing may be able to squeeze 3 more (ZA230, ZA231, and ZA115) if the modification process becomes more efficient. Boeing is now going to work on 787s that need more time at the EMC due to all the re-work that has to be performed. The tables below summarizes my projections:
Disclaimer
While I try to be as accurate as I can the projections are my opinion and actual delivery numbers more likely differ from my estimate. There are unforseen issues that can crop upo similar to the issues that held up deliveries to Air India, Qatar Airways and the Chinese carriers. Additionally, labor strife may once again become a hinderance to deliveries this year if the engineers of SPEEA go on strike. Word is that a strike may be authorized in Februrary. Boeing and SPEEA are to go back to the Federal Mediator on January 9th to try and come to an agreement. If one isn't forth coming then the strike will severely slow down production of all Boeing jetliners as well as significantly slow down the testing and certification of the 787-9. Boeing can make up some work by using managment engineers but it won't be enough to fill the void. The other issue is the need to manage the production rate increases carefully. 2012 showed that Boeign can do this but they were very measured in their approach last year. In 2013 Boeing will be more aggresive with the 787 rate increase (two rate jumps from 5 to 7 and then from 7 to 10) and any issues can mean serious trouble not unlike the production snafus in the late 1990s.
Boeing ended 2012 on an excellent note by regaining it's former position as the top commercial aircraft producer (thanks to the 46 787 deliveries). Boeing is poised to continue that dominance but there will be issues that Boeing will need to resolve if 2013 is to be more successful in 787 deliveries than 2012. We'll see how it tuens out.
Monday, December 31, 2012
787 Looking Back and Looking Forward: Part 1, 2012 Year in Review
2012 787 Year in Review
2012 was a year highs and lows for the 787 program. While Boeing executed very well on it plan to increase production and work through the back log of airplanes sitting around Everett waiting to be modified and delivered, the program was bedeviled by teething problems while in customer service.
The Bad
These problems were magnified by the media spotlight that this airplane had to contend with since 2007. Every new squawk that appeared was magnified by the media despite the benign nature of most of these issues. The most notable was the diversion of a scheduled United 787 flight from Houston to Newark, NJ. The aircraft landed in New Orleans without incident as the pilot noticed irregular indications on the cockpit displays related to the electrical system. United stated that the issue was traced to a starter generator supplied by Hamilton Sundstrand.
The Good
Despite all this many customers reported that they were very happy with the performance of the aircraft. Air India was able to turn a money losing route (Delhi to Frankfurt) into a profitable one. ANA itself reported that the aircraft was more fuel efficient than they had expected. As Boeing works out the excess weight of the aircraft in subsequent block numbers and GE & Rolls Royce brings their respective engines closer to promised fuel burn specs the 787-8 will only get better.
During 2012 Boeing had delivered 46 787s to 8 different customers. 7 of these customers received their first 787s this year. The airlines that Boeing delivered these aircraft to represented every continent on the world except Antarctica (still waiting for Penguin Air to order, I guess). Of the 46 airplanes delivered, 31 airplanes had to under go some amount of change incorporation through the Everett Modification Center while 15 were delivered straight from the the final assembly lines at Everett and Charleston. Over all Boeing has delivered 49 787s since deliveries began in September 2011.
I was expecting Boeing to deliver 50 787s this year and they fell short of this number quite narrowly by 4 airframes. This is attributable to the failure of the Chinese and Air India to take delivery of 787s that are ready for service.
On the 787-9 development front, Boeing, at last report, had completed over 90% of the detailed engineering design work for this variant of the aircraft (this was accomplished back in September, 2012) and work started on the first major fuselage assemblies in the last couple of months. Boeing is reporting that the aircraft is meeting weight expectations and does expect that they will deliver and aircraft that will come in well under the contractual weight made to customers.
Boeing has seemed to have executed well on its plan for 2012. They had estimated that they would deliver between 35 and 43 787s in the year and they exceeded that delivery plan. 2013 will be a crucial year in terms of the production and delivery ramp up as well as the start of testing on Boeing newest 787 variant. However there are looming problems that can derail those plans in a significant way. These will be explored in the 787 2013 year look ahead.
2012 was a year highs and lows for the 787 program. While Boeing executed very well on it plan to increase production and work through the back log of airplanes sitting around Everett waiting to be modified and delivered, the program was bedeviled by teething problems while in customer service.
The Bad
These problems were magnified by the media spotlight that this airplane had to contend with since 2007. Every new squawk that appeared was magnified by the media despite the benign nature of most of these issues. The most notable was the diversion of a scheduled United 787 flight from Houston to Newark, NJ. The aircraft landed in New Orleans without incident as the pilot noticed irregular indications on the cockpit displays related to the electrical system. United stated that the issue was traced to a starter generator supplied by Hamilton Sundstrand.
The Good
Despite all this many customers reported that they were very happy with the performance of the aircraft. Air India was able to turn a money losing route (Delhi to Frankfurt) into a profitable one. ANA itself reported that the aircraft was more fuel efficient than they had expected. As Boeing works out the excess weight of the aircraft in subsequent block numbers and GE & Rolls Royce brings their respective engines closer to promised fuel burn specs the 787-8 will only get better.
During 2012 Boeing had delivered 46 787s to 8 different customers. 7 of these customers received their first 787s this year. The airlines that Boeing delivered these aircraft to represented every continent on the world except Antarctica (still waiting for Penguin Air to order, I guess). Of the 46 airplanes delivered, 31 airplanes had to under go some amount of change incorporation through the Everett Modification Center while 15 were delivered straight from the the final assembly lines at Everett and Charleston. Over all Boeing has delivered 49 787s since deliveries began in September 2011.
I was expecting Boeing to deliver 50 787s this year and they fell short of this number quite narrowly by 4 airframes. This is attributable to the failure of the Chinese and Air India to take delivery of 787s that are ready for service.
On the 787-9 development front, Boeing, at last report, had completed over 90% of the detailed engineering design work for this variant of the aircraft (this was accomplished back in September, 2012) and work started on the first major fuselage assemblies in the last couple of months. Boeing is reporting that the aircraft is meeting weight expectations and does expect that they will deliver and aircraft that will come in well under the contractual weight made to customers.
Boeing has seemed to have executed well on its plan for 2012. They had estimated that they would deliver between 35 and 43 787s in the year and they exceeded that delivery plan. 2013 will be a crucial year in terms of the production and delivery ramp up as well as the start of testing on Boeing newest 787 variant. However there are looming problems that can derail those plans in a significant way. These will be explored in the 787 2013 year look ahead.
Friday, November 2, 2012
I'm Baaaack...but only for the moment - Post Sandy 787 Update
Hello everyone,
First off I want to thank you all who have sent me best wishes during the last few days. It's been difficult as I have no power, heat (temps are in the low 40s F overnight) and hot water (for bathing, cleaning, etc.). I'm hopingto have power back in the enxt couple of days but we're not sure when it'll happen. Right now I'm camped out in the local public library where there is WIFI (real slow due to all the residents who are also here), electricity and heat. I'll put up a post but not sure when I will be able to do so again.
Anyway on to business.
Boeing had two quick deliveries on Halloween, let's call them "ghost deliveries" as they weren't expected. In particular the delivery to United of its 2nd 787. the information coming from United and even Boeing itself didn't indicate a delivery was imminent but they did deliver ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) on Wednesday. United just announced that they have finished FAA certification of their 787 operations and now should be ready to start limited service on Monday, Nov. 4th. Boeing should still be able to deliver the two Dreamliners to the carrier in November. These frame are re-worked frames so we would have to see how fast they would go through the pre-delivery and test flight process as ZA290 was a new build that didn't need any re-work and had only needed 2 test flights before being delivered to United. It's not known when United will press ZA290 into service.
The second airplane that was delivered was ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) to ANA which is a reworked frame that had 3 test flights prior to being delivered. For October, Boeing matched the monthly high of 7 deliveries which was achieved in September.
November as mentioned in the prior post may be big but there are issues that may depress deliveries. First is the uncertainty over deliveries to the Chinese carriers. There is a certification issue, rumor has it, with the Chinese aviation authorities (CAAC).
When asked about it Boeing replied: "In keeping with our standard practices, we work with regulatory authorities in advance of local airlines taking delivery of a new model of airplane. Also, as we’ve stated before, we don’t provide forward-looking comments regarding the production or delivery schedules of our customers."
The issue with CAAC has been reinforced when Boeing put both ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) for China Southern Airlines and ZA430 (LN 73, B2728) for Hainan into storage at Everett's South Ramp. This indicates that the issue will take some time to sort out. Boeing has one more 787s for Hainan Airlines that is on the flightline but so far they have not made a move to store it...yet. There are several 787s that are in production for both Chinese carriers. In addition to the aforementioned airplanes that have flown or been pulled out of final assembly and on the flightline, there are 2 787s for China Southern that are in storage or in change incorporation. At Boeing Charleston there are 3 787s in final assembly for Hainan Airlines and 3 more (all for China Southern) are to start final assembly at either Everett of Boeing Charleston by the end of the year or early January. This is a total of 11 airframes that are potentially to be stored if the issues are not resolved with CAAC.
Boeing as of today has 14 airplanes that are in pre-flight, flight testing or ready to be delivered. Rumor has it that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) is to be delivered sometime next week to Air India. It was to have been delivered last month and it is unknown as to why there was a delay but this is Air India. 'Nuff said.
Qatar Airways seems to be moving towards taking 2 more 787s in November though I'm still trying to get confirmation on this LOT Polish Airlines should take their first 787 in about 10 days as well. That is 4 aircraft thus far.
Here is what I think will be delivered this month:
ZA261 - Ethiopian - 2 test flights already and flying a 3rd today
ZA286 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA238 - Air India - ready for delivery
ZA289 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA460 - Qatar Airways - 2 test flights thus far
ZA239 - Air India - 2 test flights and in paint
ZA270 - LOT Polish Airlines - 2 Boeing test flights thus far
ZA463 - Qatar Airways - 4 test flights thus far
ZA271 - LOT Polish Airlines - in pre-flight may deliver late this month or by end of December
ZA538 - LAN - in pre-flight and should fly soon
This is a total of 9 (with a possibility of 10) 787s being delivered this month. Obviously I am not counting any of the Chinese airframes. It remains to be seen how those airframes that are currently in production will fare in terms of getting through pre-flight and being delivered by the end of the month but I can see one more airframe being delivered to ANA in November (probably the re-work frame) and one for JAL may also make it by the end of the month.
Boeing also has moved one of the "terrible teens" from runaway storage to the EMC to start chagne incorporation. This aircraft is ZA504 (LN 15). Right now this aircraft is listed to go to ANA but this may change. ANother aircraft for Qatar Airways has completed change incorporation and paint is now spotted at the Everett Fuel Dock. This aircraft is ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCC). Lastly, Boeig loaded ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) into position 1 in the 40-24 surge line to start final assembly. Boeing is keeping up the assembly rate at around 5 airplanes per month.
First off I want to thank you all who have sent me best wishes during the last few days. It's been difficult as I have no power, heat (temps are in the low 40s F overnight) and hot water (for bathing, cleaning, etc.). I'm hopingto have power back in the enxt couple of days but we're not sure when it'll happen. Right now I'm camped out in the local public library where there is WIFI (real slow due to all the residents who are also here), electricity and heat. I'll put up a post but not sure when I will be able to do so again.
Anyway on to business.
Boeing had two quick deliveries on Halloween, let's call them "ghost deliveries" as they weren't expected. In particular the delivery to United of its 2nd 787. the information coming from United and even Boeing itself didn't indicate a delivery was imminent but they did deliver ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) on Wednesday. United just announced that they have finished FAA certification of their 787 operations and now should be ready to start limited service on Monday, Nov. 4th. Boeing should still be able to deliver the two Dreamliners to the carrier in November. These frame are re-worked frames so we would have to see how fast they would go through the pre-delivery and test flight process as ZA290 was a new build that didn't need any re-work and had only needed 2 test flights before being delivered to United. It's not known when United will press ZA290 into service.
The second airplane that was delivered was ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) to ANA which is a reworked frame that had 3 test flights prior to being delivered. For October, Boeing matched the monthly high of 7 deliveries which was achieved in September.
November as mentioned in the prior post may be big but there are issues that may depress deliveries. First is the uncertainty over deliveries to the Chinese carriers. There is a certification issue, rumor has it, with the Chinese aviation authorities (CAAC).
When asked about it Boeing replied: "In keeping with our standard practices, we work with regulatory authorities in advance of local airlines taking delivery of a new model of airplane. Also, as we’ve stated before, we don’t provide forward-looking comments regarding the production or delivery schedules of our customers."
The issue with CAAC has been reinforced when Boeing put both ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) for China Southern Airlines and ZA430 (LN 73, B2728) for Hainan into storage at Everett's South Ramp. This indicates that the issue will take some time to sort out. Boeing has one more 787s for Hainan Airlines that is on the flightline but so far they have not made a move to store it...yet. There are several 787s that are in production for both Chinese carriers. In addition to the aforementioned airplanes that have flown or been pulled out of final assembly and on the flightline, there are 2 787s for China Southern that are in storage or in change incorporation. At Boeing Charleston there are 3 787s in final assembly for Hainan Airlines and 3 more (all for China Southern) are to start final assembly at either Everett of Boeing Charleston by the end of the year or early January. This is a total of 11 airframes that are potentially to be stored if the issues are not resolved with CAAC.
Boeing as of today has 14 airplanes that are in pre-flight, flight testing or ready to be delivered. Rumor has it that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) is to be delivered sometime next week to Air India. It was to have been delivered last month and it is unknown as to why there was a delay but this is Air India. 'Nuff said.
Qatar Airways seems to be moving towards taking 2 more 787s in November though I'm still trying to get confirmation on this LOT Polish Airlines should take their first 787 in about 10 days as well. That is 4 aircraft thus far.
Here is what I think will be delivered this month:
ZA261 - Ethiopian - 2 test flights already and flying a 3rd today
ZA286 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA238 - Air India - ready for delivery
ZA289 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA460 - Qatar Airways - 2 test flights thus far
ZA239 - Air India - 2 test flights and in paint
ZA270 - LOT Polish Airlines - 2 Boeing test flights thus far
ZA463 - Qatar Airways - 4 test flights thus far
ZA271 - LOT Polish Airlines - in pre-flight may deliver late this month or by end of December
ZA538 - LAN - in pre-flight and should fly soon
This is a total of 9 (with a possibility of 10) 787s being delivered this month. Obviously I am not counting any of the Chinese airframes. It remains to be seen how those airframes that are currently in production will fare in terms of getting through pre-flight and being delivered by the end of the month but I can see one more airframe being delivered to ANA in November (probably the re-work frame) and one for JAL may also make it by the end of the month.
Boeing also has moved one of the "terrible teens" from runaway storage to the EMC to start chagne incorporation. This aircraft is ZA504 (LN 15). Right now this aircraft is listed to go to ANA but this may change. ANother aircraft for Qatar Airways has completed change incorporation and paint is now spotted at the Everett Fuel Dock. This aircraft is ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCC). Lastly, Boeig loaded ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) into position 1 in the 40-24 surge line to start final assembly. Boeing is keeping up the assembly rate at around 5 airplanes per month.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
787 deliveries may be done for October, November looks to be a big month
Boeing looks to be done with making 787 deliveries for the month of October but November is potentially looking to be a very big month with 16 aircraft already in test flight or pre-flight. Certainly not all those will be delivered in November but several planes coming out of the assembly line would be ready to deliver by the end of November. The main reason of the low number in October is the bad weather which prevented Boeing from conducting first flights within their established guidlines governing 1st flights of production aircraft. Of particular note, the low ceiling levels as well as precipitation that violated Boeing's first flight rules.
Boeing may still be able to deliver one or two more 787s by Wednesday (Oct. 31st) though it is highly doubtful. I can see many deliveries taking place in the first two weeks of November but some may be delayed due to certain customer issues.
Air India - This customer was to have one 787 delivered from Charleston (2nd Charleston built 787) at the end of October but this is now looking like it will deliver in the first two weeks of November. A third CHS built 787 is currently at Fort Worth being painted and should fly back to Charleston by next weekend. A fourth CHS 787 for Air India took its first flight today and I would expect that it can go to Ft. Worth by the end of this week or early next week for painting. I am still not sure on whether the issues surrounding Air India are resolved as these have been the major factors to the delays in delivering the 787s in recent months but if they are then it should be relatively smooth sailing in November. My prediction for November:
Air India - 2 787s will be delivered.
ANA - One 787 still in flight test and this aircraft has taken its 3rd test flight today. It is possible that it can deliver by Wednesday Oct. 31st but I think the odds are not good. It will certainly deliver in the first 2 weeks of November. A second 787 for ANA is at the EMC undergoing change incorporation but this is a late build 787 which doesn't need much change incorporation so I believe it should be out on the flightline shortly and ready to go through the pre-flight program and deliver by the end of November. My prediction for November:
ANA - 2 787s will be delivered.
China Southern Airlines - There is currently one aircraft that is out on the flightline and has had only one test flight. I am still unsure if China's civil aviation authorities have certified the 787 for use by Chinese carriers or not and this uncertainty makes it difficult to say with any confidence if this aircraft (or any 787s for Chinese airlines) will be delivered this month. This is another 787 at the EMC for China Southern that has spent a lot of time in change incorporation and I doubt that this airplane will be ready to be delivered in November. It is entirely possible that Boeing and CAAC can use the 787s that are out on the flightline to satisfy any certification requirements for the Chinese authorities but so far I don't think this is happening just yet. I'm not holding my breath on this one. My prediction for November:
China Southern Airlines - 0 787s will be delivered.
Ethiopian Airlines - With 3 787s already in hand, the fourth has had one test flight but I do expect that further test flights should take place shortly. This airplane should deliver within the first 2 weeks of November. The 5 787 (and last that will be delivered to this airline in 2012) is at the EMC and I suspect will be rolled out to the flightline by the end of November for a December delivery. My prediction for November:
Ethiopian Airlines - 1 787 will be delivered.
Hainan Airlines - Boeing has flown this aircraft 3 times already but the issues surrounding delivery to Hainan remain the same as that of China Southern. A 2nd Hainan 787 has been on the 40-51 ramp for some time now and has not even gone into the paint hangar. I'm not too optimistic that these deliveries will take place in November but I have been wrong. My prediction for November:
Hainan Airlines - 0 787s will be delivered.
LAN - The carrier too delivery of its 2nd 787 this past week and has a 3rd one out on the flightline going through pre-flight. 1st flight should take place, I believe, within the first 10 days of November with a delivery date in late November. There aren't any more 787 in the pipeline for a December delivery so it will be the last one delivered to LAN in 2012. My prediction for November:
LAN - 1 787 will be delivered.
LOT Polish Airlines - LOTs 1st 787 has only made one test flight however the airline is saying that they will be taking delivery of their 1st aircraft around November 11 or 12th with delivery flight to Warsaw around November 15th. A second 787 is at EMC finishing up some minor assembly tasks and already painted. I expect that this airplane will be pulled to the flightline from the EMC by mid November and should have its first flight in the later half of the month with a projected delivery in December. There are three more 787 for LOT in final assembly and one or two of these airplanes can possibly deliver in December but certainly in January of 2013. My prediction for November:
LOT Polish Airlines - 1 787 will be delivered.
Qatar Airways - A big one. This airlines has already taken contractual delivery of one airplane that is having modifications in Victorville. There are 2 more 787s that are on the flight line at Everett. one aircraft has had 2 test flights thus far and the third one has had 3. Assuming that there are no issues with the aircraft itself, I can see these two airplanes being delivered within the first two weeks of November possibly one may deliver before the end of October but that is a long shot. This is Qatar Airways and they are very unpredictable and demanding. Yet Boeing was able to satisfy them with the first airframe delivered in early October so there is hope. There is one more in final assembly which should pull out a the end of this week (going to paint) and deliver by the end of November. One more 787 is in the EMC which is a late build and should be out on the flightline by around middle November and can be delivered in early December. My prediction for November:
Qatar Airways - 2 787s will be delivered.
United Airlines - Another big one. United just announced that they are delaying the implementation of it 787 schedule (domestic) as result of delays in the delivery of one 787 that was due in October. They are delaying the launch of some 787 domestic service that was supposed to start on November 4th. Currently the 2nd 787s for United is in test flights and has had two flights already. There are two more on the flightline both of which still need to make their first flights. I do think that Boeing can get both these airplanes in the air by early to mid November and have a least two of them delivered to United by the end of the month with one delivered in the 1st two weeks of November. The other 2 787s that are in change incorporation should be ready to be delivered by the end of December. My prediction for November:
United Airlines - 2 787 will be delivered.
This is a total of 11 787s delivered in November which is attainable. Many of these airplanes are in test flights or customer flights and a few are about to enter the test flight program prior to handover. Still the first two weeks of November should see quite a few 787 deliveries being madeto customers but weather will determine the pace of on going deliveries.
A bit of programming note...given that I am in the middle of Hurricane Sandy's target area I may be offline for up to a couple of weeks depending on when and if power needs to be restored. Hopefully it won't be too bad but I will try to update information, particularly on the tables via cell phone which is not particularly easy to do. Thank you for your patience.
Boeing may still be able to deliver one or two more 787s by Wednesday (Oct. 31st) though it is highly doubtful. I can see many deliveries taking place in the first two weeks of November but some may be delayed due to certain customer issues.
Air India - This customer was to have one 787 delivered from Charleston (2nd Charleston built 787) at the end of October but this is now looking like it will deliver in the first two weeks of November. A third CHS built 787 is currently at Fort Worth being painted and should fly back to Charleston by next weekend. A fourth CHS 787 for Air India took its first flight today and I would expect that it can go to Ft. Worth by the end of this week or early next week for painting. I am still not sure on whether the issues surrounding Air India are resolved as these have been the major factors to the delays in delivering the 787s in recent months but if they are then it should be relatively smooth sailing in November. My prediction for November:
Air India - 2 787s will be delivered.
ANA - One 787 still in flight test and this aircraft has taken its 3rd test flight today. It is possible that it can deliver by Wednesday Oct. 31st but I think the odds are not good. It will certainly deliver in the first 2 weeks of November. A second 787 for ANA is at the EMC undergoing change incorporation but this is a late build 787 which doesn't need much change incorporation so I believe it should be out on the flightline shortly and ready to go through the pre-flight program and deliver by the end of November. My prediction for November:
ANA - 2 787s will be delivered.
China Southern Airlines - There is currently one aircraft that is out on the flightline and has had only one test flight. I am still unsure if China's civil aviation authorities have certified the 787 for use by Chinese carriers or not and this uncertainty makes it difficult to say with any confidence if this aircraft (or any 787s for Chinese airlines) will be delivered this month. This is another 787 at the EMC for China Southern that has spent a lot of time in change incorporation and I doubt that this airplane will be ready to be delivered in November. It is entirely possible that Boeing and CAAC can use the 787s that are out on the flightline to satisfy any certification requirements for the Chinese authorities but so far I don't think this is happening just yet. I'm not holding my breath on this one. My prediction for November:
China Southern Airlines - 0 787s will be delivered.
Ethiopian Airlines - With 3 787s already in hand, the fourth has had one test flight but I do expect that further test flights should take place shortly. This airplane should deliver within the first 2 weeks of November. The 5 787 (and last that will be delivered to this airline in 2012) is at the EMC and I suspect will be rolled out to the flightline by the end of November for a December delivery. My prediction for November:
Ethiopian Airlines - 1 787 will be delivered.
Hainan Airlines - Boeing has flown this aircraft 3 times already but the issues surrounding delivery to Hainan remain the same as that of China Southern. A 2nd Hainan 787 has been on the 40-51 ramp for some time now and has not even gone into the paint hangar. I'm not too optimistic that these deliveries will take place in November but I have been wrong. My prediction for November:
Hainan Airlines - 0 787s will be delivered.
LAN - The carrier too delivery of its 2nd 787 this past week and has a 3rd one out on the flightline going through pre-flight. 1st flight should take place, I believe, within the first 10 days of November with a delivery date in late November. There aren't any more 787 in the pipeline for a December delivery so it will be the last one delivered to LAN in 2012. My prediction for November:
LAN - 1 787 will be delivered.
LOT Polish Airlines - LOTs 1st 787 has only made one test flight however the airline is saying that they will be taking delivery of their 1st aircraft around November 11 or 12th with delivery flight to Warsaw around November 15th. A second 787 is at EMC finishing up some minor assembly tasks and already painted. I expect that this airplane will be pulled to the flightline from the EMC by mid November and should have its first flight in the later half of the month with a projected delivery in December. There are three more 787 for LOT in final assembly and one or two of these airplanes can possibly deliver in December but certainly in January of 2013. My prediction for November:
LOT Polish Airlines - 1 787 will be delivered.
Qatar Airways - A big one. This airlines has already taken contractual delivery of one airplane that is having modifications in Victorville. There are 2 more 787s that are on the flight line at Everett. one aircraft has had 2 test flights thus far and the third one has had 3. Assuming that there are no issues with the aircraft itself, I can see these two airplanes being delivered within the first two weeks of November possibly one may deliver before the end of October but that is a long shot. This is Qatar Airways and they are very unpredictable and demanding. Yet Boeing was able to satisfy them with the first airframe delivered in early October so there is hope. There is one more in final assembly which should pull out a the end of this week (going to paint) and deliver by the end of November. One more 787 is in the EMC which is a late build and should be out on the flightline by around middle November and can be delivered in early December. My prediction for November:
Qatar Airways - 2 787s will be delivered.
United Airlines - Another big one. United just announced that they are delaying the implementation of it 787 schedule (domestic) as result of delays in the delivery of one 787 that was due in October. They are delaying the launch of some 787 domestic service that was supposed to start on November 4th. Currently the 2nd 787s for United is in test flights and has had two flights already. There are two more on the flightline both of which still need to make their first flights. I do think that Boeing can get both these airplanes in the air by early to mid November and have a least two of them delivered to United by the end of the month with one delivered in the 1st two weeks of November. The other 2 787s that are in change incorporation should be ready to be delivered by the end of December. My prediction for November:
United Airlines - 2 787 will be delivered.
This is a total of 11 787s delivered in November which is attainable. Many of these airplanes are in test flights or customer flights and a few are about to enter the test flight program prior to handover. Still the first two weeks of November should see quite a few 787 deliveries being madeto customers but weather will determine the pace of on going deliveries.
A bit of programming note...given that I am in the middle of Hurricane Sandy's target area I may be offline for up to a couple of weeks depending on when and if power needs to be restored. Hopefully it won't be too bad but I will try to update information, particularly on the tables via cell phone which is not particularly easy to do. Thank you for your patience.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Home Stretch
Boeing PhotosAs 787 flight testing continues, Boeing and its customers are starting to prepare for delivery and EIS of the 787 which should take place this summer.
With much of the test points already completed (90+% on the Trent 1000) Boeing is preparing for the final phase of flight tests. ZA004 will have its package “A” Trent 1000 engines switched out in favor of the improved package “B” engines starting on April 20th with the left engine. That process should be completed by April 30th followed by the right engine removal and replacement between May 2nd and May 11th. The aircraft should resume test flights soon after the remove and replace of the Trent 1000 engines though no new flight date has been revealed.
The much anticipated functionality and reliability testing and ETOPs testing will start in June and should take up that month and into the early part of July and wrapping up the 787 flight test program. In the meantime Boeing announced that approval has been given by regulatory agencies (FAA, CAA, EASA, JCAB, and the CAAC) to start 787 flight training by Boeing developed training devices including full flight simulators.
Concurrently, launch customer ANA announced that they are starting flight training for the first group of 787 pilots and should have 80 trained pilots by March 31, 2012. This adds more confidence that the 787 should be delivered within the summer time frame though it all depends on how remaining testing goes as well as the pace of re-work and modifications on the 787s that have been built.
Lastly, two early build 787-8 that had been allocated for Korean Air were allocated to other customers on the heels of Korean Air’s decision to take 787-9s instead of the -8 model. LN 54 is now going to Air India while LN 59 is now going to ANA. Here's Boeing's Statement on the start of global 787 pilot training:
Boeing Ready to Deliver 787 Pilot Training on Global Scale
Network of training devices qualified in five locations, three continents
SEATTLE, April 18, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) has achieved multiple qualifications for its worldwide network of 787 training campuses. The qualifications mean Boeing Flight Services has training devices that are ready to be used with an approved training course in locations around the globe. "The innovations of the 787 Dreamliner don't end with the airplane itself," said Sherry Carbary, vice president, Boeing Flight Services. "Boeing is changing the game through continued innovation in our advanced suite of training technologies. By bringing this cutting-edge training directly to airlines in the regions of the world where they're based and serve their passengers, we're offering our customers the flexibility and efficiency of flight crew training where they need it, when they need it," Carbary said. Full-flight simulators and other flight training devices for commercial pilot training require qualifications from each airline's home country regulatory agency. Boeing is qualifying its network of 787 training devices with multiple regulators in order to allow airlines the maximum options and regional locations for training their crews. "Providing our airline customers with cost effective flexibility is a top priority," said Roei Ganzarski, chief customer officer, Boeing Training & Flight Services. "We've invested in world-class courseware, trained a global team of experienced instructors, and now have certified a worldwide network of simulators, all to provide 787 operators an efficient and effective 787 training solution." Boeing operates 787 training campuses in five locations: Seattle, Singapore, Tokyo, London Gatwick and Shanghai. As part of the qualification process, Boeing demonstrated, with the regulators' concurrence, that the training devices located at the five campuses around the world were similar or identical in the way they operate. The qualifications from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) on behalf of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Japanese Civil Aviation Bureau (JCAB) and the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) will allow Boeing Flight Services to deliver the same quality of training at all locations. Last month the CAAC qualified the Shanghai Boeing training campus for 787 training including the full-flight 787 simulator and the 787 flight training device. With this achievement, Boeing has received more than 20 separate qualifications in five locations on three continents in support of 787 entry into service beginning later this year.
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