787 Production Slow Down (or stoppage) at Everett?

UPDATE (9/20/2017; 11:35PM): Matt Cawby just informed me that it appears that a 787 should roll out of 40-26 in the next few hours.  Prior to this roll out, Everett was assembling a 787 in 16 days.  This next aircraft (ZB220) took 22 days to assemble and thus still begs the questions as to why the assembly time has gone up from 16 days to 22 days? Additionally, Matt Cawby reported that ZB220 and the airplane that rolled out before that one (ZB276) didn't have their engines fitted thus I wonder if the hold up is due to Rolls Royce?

For the past few days I've noticed that Everett hasn't rolled out a Dreamliner since September 9th when ZB276 (LN 621, ET-AUO) a 787-9 was rolled out of the 40-26 building where the 787s are assembled.  Thus far in September, Boeing has rolled out 2 787s and started assembly on another 2 aircraft.

I don't know the reason why there has not been any further unloading (roll outs) of the 787s from the last assembly position 4 at Everett but the fact that Charleston is still turning out 787s on a regular basis does suggest that the reason doesn't seem to be related to design or assembly of the airplane in general though I wouldn't discount an assembly SNAFU on one or more of the airplanes currently in 40-26.

Typically, at Everett, once the 787 has completed work in position 4 it is rolled out to the 40-51 ramp where minor assembly tasks are completed.  The airplane then usually goes to the paint hangar or the fuel dock depending on the availability of the paint hangar.  It then follows the normal Boeing pre-flight ground testing followed by the flight tests and delivery.  According to Chris Edwards, a spotter at Everett, there hasn't been any 787 movements out of building 40-26 and confirmed that ZB220 (LN 623, HS-TWB), the next 787 to roll out is still inside.  Chris also noted that it took about 2 weeks to paint QANTAS' first 787-9 which is a long time for a livery as simple as QANTAS'.  There is a very small chance that the airplanes that were the next to roll out went straight the paint hangar but it would mean that Boeing would have had to complete all assembly tasks inside including minor ones and then roll it out.  I doubt that this has happened.

I'll keep watching this situation as report as circumstances warrant but it is too early to determine if this is a major issue and what, if any, impact this will have to the 787 delivery schedule.

787 July 2017 Update

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	Number
Testing Complete	3
To be assembled in Everett	161
To be assembled in Charleston	124
Parts Arriving	6
Undergoing final assembly	8
Storage	0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work	0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work	0
Pre-Flight Prep	12
Production Testing	3
Non Customer Flight Tests	4
Ready for Delivery	1
Donation	3
Delivered	577
TOTAL	902

Boeing's 787 deliveries for July came in a 12 aircraft (2 x 787-8 and 10 x 787-9).  For the year Boeing has delivered 77 Dreamliners (18 x 787-8 and 59 x 787-9) and 577 airplanes since program deliveries began in September 2011 (342 x 787-8 and 235 x 787-9).

Notable deliveries included ANA's 60th 787 and LOT Polish Airlines last 787-8 that they had on order.  They are expected to take several 787-9 on lease from a couple different lessors.

All in all a decent month for 787 deliveries as well as 787 production as Boeing rolled out 12 787s while starting assembly on 13 airplanes.  of the 13 airplanes that started final assembly in July, 5 were rolled out before month end.  Everett is averaging about 17 days for assembly while Charleston is around 22 days. The only notable 787s that was rolled out is the first 787-9 for Thai International Airways.  They should be taking that aircraft leased from AerCap around mid September.  The other is Air India's penultimate 787-8 which should deliver around middle to late August.

787-10 testing continued during July as the three aircraft test fleet flew over 90 hours in July.  The total accumulated flight hours stands at over 460 after four full months of testing.  Boeing will start final assembly on the first production 787-10 in late August or early September. This aircraft ZC003 (LN 622) will eventually be delivered to Singapore Airlines and will probably be used for functionality and reliability (F & R) testing towards the end of the year.

Earlier this week Boeing released their 2Q2017 financial results.  No real new news in terms of the prospects of increasing the rate on the 787 to 14/month from the current 12.  There are still numerous sales campaign on going that would hopefully lead to an increase in rate in the next 2 or 3 years.  Boeing also reported that deferred production cost dropped by a huge $530 million to about $26.5 billion. across the unfulfilled orders of about 700 airplanes that equates to about $37.8 million per airplane which Boeing needs to recoup in order to drive that deferred production cost balance to 0.  Some analysts believe that this is a very difficult task to accomplish and they may have to increase the accounting block in order to book reasonable amount of profit after the deferred production costs.

Lastly, with regards to sales, Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research reported that the sale of the 787 to Emirates is a "done deal" and that this order will be formally announced at the Dubai Air Show in November.  While there isn't any numbers available, the order is believed to be for a mix of 787-9 and 787-10.  This potential order certainly can help Boeing with the decision to move to 14/month. Another potential order is from Turkish Airlines (I know I sounded that bell before).  This time Turkish may be close to wet leasing up to 4 787-9s from Etihad Airways.  There is also a rumor that the wet lease would be in addition to a firm order of 787s direct from Boeing.  Turkish and Etihad are still trying to work out the details.

787 Tables