Friday, December 11, 2015

Boeing exceeds 2015 787 delivery forecast by delivering 14 787 in November. Aims for 9 to 10 deliveries in December

November 2015 results

Boeing had a pretty good delivery month for the 787 as they delivered 14 aircraft: 6 787-8 and 8 787-9.  As of November 30th, Boeing has delivered 126 787s: 68 787-8 and 58 787-9s thus exceeding its 787 delivery guidance for 2015.  Total program deliveries stand at 354 as of November 30, 2015. The 14 787s delivered included customers such as KLM's 1st 787-9, 2 airplanes each for Qatar (787-8) and British Airways (787-9) and 3 787-9s for United.

November also saw the firming of Eva Airway's order for 18 787-10 (+6 options) which is a major boost for that model.  Thus far Boeing has booked 97 gross orders for the 787, 71 net orders. Ethiopian also has said that they have ordered 2 787-9s for 2017 delivery though those airplanes have not showed up on Boeing's order and delivery site.

787-10 Rendering Courtesy of The Boeing Company
Speaking of the 787-10, Boeing announce that they have completed the detailed design of the 787-10 which is a simple stretch of the 787-9.  The two aircraft will be 95% common thus making the aircraft a low risk proposition.  Expect final assembly to start in a years time followed by first flight in the late 1st quarter or early 2nd quarter of 2017 and delivery in 2018.  Boeing is expected to have 3 test airplanes all of which will be re-worked and delivered to customers in 2018.

December Delivery and Production

As Boeing heads into the last few weeks of 2015, it appears that they are aiming to get their remaining deliveries for the 787 completed by December 23rd.  According to the current delivery schedule, Boeing will deliver 7 787s (2 have already been delivered as of Dec. 11th) between Dec. 15th and Dec. 23.  Deliveries include 2 787-9 to Virgin as well as 787-9s to Vietnam Airlines, LAN, and Air Canada.  American and Scoot will each get one 787-8.  Boeing has already delivered a 787-8 to Avianca and a 787-9 to KLM.

Boeing has rolled out 116 787 though the end of November and started final assembly on 115 thus putting them on track to exceed the 10/month production rate.  Through Dec. 11th, Boeing has rolled out 121 787s and started final assembly on 119 Dreamliners.  I believe that we should see a tapering of production activities just prior to Christmas that will last until just after New Years.

Moving Re-Work and Change Incorporation Activities?

So according to sources but as of yet unconfirmed, Boeing will not be sending anymore 787 to the EMC to finish re-work prior to delivery.  That work will now take place in a couple different locations around Everett including 40-24 final assembly and the two spots behind the Everett Delivery Center (stalls 114 and 115).

The reason for this switch is to allow Boeing to concentrate on recovering the KC-46A tanker program which has fallen behind schedule much like the 787 had done during it's early gestation period.  It appears that Boeing will send KC-46As to the EMC to finish work and to try and recover the schedule will maintaining the test flight program which is currently on going.

Boeing has 11 early build 787-8s that need to be re-worked to certification standards.  8 of those 11 airplanes have customers assigned to them as of today but have delivery dates stretching out to 2018.

The relocation of the 787 re-work raises questions that I frankly don't have the answers to such as:
1) Will the relocation to 40-24 delay the start final assembly of early 777X or will it interfere in the reconfiguration work that will needed to be done in order to support early 777X final assembly?
2) What work will take place inside 40-24 as oppose to the outdoor stalls 114 and 115?
3) Will the relocation of these activities slow down the rate of completed re-worked 787s?
4) Will this change necessitate the continued use of the runway storage area at Paine Field?

Clearly since there is a plan for most of the remaining early build airplanes (we must not forget that 3 787-10 test airplanes will have to also be re-worked in 2018), Boeing is now planning to free up facilities for 777X and KC-46A work as work on the early build 787s will start to wind down.

787 Full Production Table

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Eva Air orders 18 787-10 firm + 6 787-10 options

Eva Air finalized an order for up to 24 787-10.  The order includes 18 firm 787-10 and 6 options.  In addition the order announcement stated Eva will take 2 additional 777-300ERs.

This was an order that Eva announced months ago but was finalized this month.  Please see Boeing's press release below:

Boeing, EVA Airways Finalize Taiwan's Largest Ever Commercial Airplane Purchase

Deal includes up to 24 787-10 Dreamliners and two 777-300ERs

EVA joins 787-10 launch customer airline group, will be first Taiwanese carrier to operate Dreamliner

SEATTLE, Nov. 24, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE:BA] and EVA Airways today finalized a historic order for up to 24 787-10 Dreamliners and two 777-300ER (Extended Range) jetliners. The order, valued at more than $8 billion at current list prices, marks the largest single commercial airplane purchase in Taiwan aviation.
"EVA participated in development of the Boeing 777-300ER and became a launch customer in 2005," said EVA President Austin Cheng. "From that first delivery through today, we operate 22 of these high-performance long-haul aircraft. We believe the future of the airline industry will be built on fuel efficiency and cabin comfort. The new Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner's high fuel efficiency and long-range flying capabilities meets these requirements and our operational needs. These planes will support our growth well into the future."
EVA Airways becomes the newest Dreamliner customer and will join the 787-10 launch customer team as one of the first airlines in the world to introduce the newest member of the 787 Dreamliner family.
"We are honored to welcome EVA Airways as Boeing's newest member of the 787-10 Dreamliner launch customer group," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Ray Conner. "For many years, EVA Air has been pushing the boundaries of aviation. Ten years ago, EVA was a launch customer for the 777-300ER. With today's order, Boeing is proud to continue playing an integral role in revolutionizing Taiwan's aviation history as EVA becomes one of the first customers around the world to operate the 787-10."
EVA Airways continues to modernize its long-haul fleet to replace aging aircraft and plans to grow its fleet to more than 100 units by 2020. These new 787-10 Dreamliners will allow the airline to expand into new markets. They will be deployed on medium-range and long-haul flights and will be operated in tandem with the 777-300ERs to form the backbone of EVA Airways' fleet.
EVA Airways currently operates more than 40 Boeing airplanes and with today's order, the airline's backlog will increase to 37 airplanes, which includes fourteen 777-300ERs, five 777 Freighters and eighteen 787-10s. 
EVA Airways' 777-300ER fleet continues to grow and the carrier is the world's eighth largest 777-300ER operator in the world and fourth largest in Asia.
The 787-10 will be the third and longest member of the super-efficient 787 family. With its greater passenger and cargo capacity, robust range and passenger-pleasing features, the 787-10 will complement EVA's Boeing widebody fleet while setting a new benchmark for fuel efficiency and operating economics.
The 787-10 will be 25 percent better in fuel and emissions than the airplanes it replaces and more than 10 percent better than anything offered by the competition for the future.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Boeing delivers 350th 787

Today Boeing reached 350 787 deliveries when they delivered 2 787-9, one each to British Airways and ANA.  It is unknown which delivery allowed Boeing to hit that milestone but a little four years after program deliveries began Boeing seems to have this program under better management though financial loses still plague the 787.

The two aircraft that were delivered today are: ZB365 (LN 361, G-ZBKD) for British Airways and ZB413 (LN 370, JA875A) for ANA.  Both should flyaway tomorrow, November 24th.  Boeing has delivered 10 787s this month (with another 4 planned deliveries yet to come) and 122 year to date.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

2016 Look Ahead for the 787 Deliveries

Projected 2016 Deliveries (Operator)Expected Total DeliveriesExpected 787-8 DeliveriesExpected 787-9 Deliveries
Air Austral220
Air Canada10010
Air China707
Air Europa550
Air France101
Air India220
Air New Zealand303
American Airlines844
British Airways11011
Crystal Air110
Ethiopian Airlines440
Etihad Airways505
Hainan Airlines808
Japan Airlines734
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines606
Norwegian Air International Ltd404
Qatar Airways550
Royal Air Maroc330
Royal Jordanian110
Saudi Arabian Airlines303
Scoot Pte Ltd220
United Airlines505
Uzbekistan Airways220
Vietnam Airlines505
Virgin Atlantic Airways404
Xiamen Airlines101

With 2015 winding up, this is a good time to look ahead to production and delivery of the 787 in 2016.

According to sources, Boeing should deliver 140 787s including 7 early build 787s in 2016. Next year will see many changes for the 787 program not the least of which is the break of rate from 10/month to 12/month. Given that 133 787s will be new builds this indicates that the increase in production rate will allow Boeing to deliver 13 more 787s in 2016.  

In 2015 we started seeing the 787-9 deliveries outpacing those of the 787-8.  In 2016 the number 787-9 deliveries should out deliver the 787-8 by a margin of 2.68:1, 102 787-9 should be delivered vs. only 38 787-8s.

Another milestone that should take place by the end of 2016 is the start of 787-10 production.  The first 787-10 test aircraft should load into position 1A in Charleston late in the 4th quarter of 2016.  In order to protect current 787 production from any unforeseen assembly issues, Boeing will reallocate 787-8 and 787-9 production slots from Charleston to Everett.  These slots will include aircraft that will enter final assembly before loading of ZC001 (LN528) as well as after it has started final assembly.  The extra margin will allow Boeing to conduct tests inside the assembly building as well without disrupting production of customer aircraft.  I anticipate that the first 787-10 aircraft should roll out during the 1st quarter 2017.


Obviously the big deal for the 787 program is the increase in production.  Right now Everett is producing 5-6 aircraft per month while Charleston is between 4-5.  Between the two, Boeing is producing 10/month.  By March 2016 both production facilities will be starting to produce at 6/month with the delivery rate increasing in May 2016 as can be seen in the table above and below. Curiously, August shows only 7 deliveries which may be due to customer readiness to take delivery during that time of the year.  It appears that deliveries in September will make up for the low August delivery count.  The 787 program should end 2016 on a strong delivery note with 34 projected deliveries.

There will be 787 operators who will receive their first 787 in 2016.  They are: Air Austral, Air China, Air Europa, Air France, Crystal Air and Uzbekistan Airways. The operators who will be receiving their 1st 787-9 are Aeromexico, Air China, Air France, American Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Norwegian, Thomson, and Xiamen.

Projected Delivery Monthly Breakout:


Here are charts based on the table above:

Looking at the first table one can't help but noticing that a few carriers will be getting a large number of deliveries.  Air Canada will be inducting 10 787-9, ANA will take 12 787-9 as well as their last 787-8, British Airways will receive 11 787-9s and American Airlines will take charge of 4 787-8 and 4 787-9s.  Chinese carrier Hainan will also take 8 aircraft, all 787-9s.

As with 2015, I'll be keeping track of the 787 delivery progress through 2016 among other things related to the 787 particularly the 787-10 development.

787 Full Production Table