Everett has a busy day with locally built 787s, Charleston silent

Today was a busy day for the 787s at Everett with a couple of deliveries and a few test flights that is setting up for more deliveries in the coming couple of weeks.

Boeing started out the day by delivering 2 787s, one to ILFC for Aeromexico (ZA561) and one to Thomson (ZA320)).  The 787 for Air India (ZA242) which I reported as delivered yesterday will actually be delivered on Monday August 19 and flown to India on August 20th.  To date Boeing has delivered (not counting the Air India jet) 76 with 3 coming this month so far. 

there were quite few test runs today with two aircraft performing both Boeing and customer test flights on the same day.  This indicates that Boeing is trying to fast track the aircraft for delivery later this month (perhaps next week).  ZA577 (for ILFC/Norwegian), ZA122 (ANA) and ZA383 (China Southern) all flew today with the later two doing customer flights.  ZA452 (British Airways) was to conduct a re-run of its aborted B-1 flight but the pilots apparently could not start one of the engines...not good.

ZA452 G-ZBJC flite delayed unable to start one engine
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) August 16, 2013

I guess they'll try again tomorrow. Boeing is aiming for a significant number of deliveries, it seems, from Everett. Here are the delivereis that I think will be made over the next 2 weeks:

Japan Airlines : ZA186
ANA: ZA121, ZA122
China Southern: ZA383
Air India: ZA242
British Airways: ZA452
Norwegian/ILFC: ZA577

It is possible, if Charleston is able to, to have a couple more deliveries:

Qatar Airways: ZA467
LAN: ZA539

Totally, Boeing has the ability to deliver 12 total this month but some of this depends on what shows up during the customer flights and if Charleston will able to start to deliver aircraft.  Through all the 787 activity of the past few weeks, very little has come out of Charleston.  Indeed, of the 9 787s that are complete (including one that is in Ft. Worth being painted) none of these airplanes have had a customer flight in preparation for delivery.  The silence from Charleston has been deafening but it may not be entirely there fault.  They are saddled with 6 787s that are to be delivered to three problem child airlines (Air India, China Southern and Hainan Airlines).  The coming week should reveal more in terms of activity at Charleston.

Lastly, I've updated the tables with the most current information that I have available including the load dates for ZA321 (September 3) and ZB021 (August 21).  Interestingly, Boeing is increasing he number of days between airframes in 40-26.  The time between loading ZA216 for Jetstar  and ZA650 is 12 days.  The number of days between ZA650 and ZA321 is 15 days (including one day for the US Labor Day holiday).  I suspect when Boeing get the inventory down at Everett and Charleston we should see a return to the days where Boeing was loading a 787 every 5.5 days at Everett.  Don't even ask me about Charleston.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 

Revised 787 Delivery Projection for 2013

Back In January of this year and prior to the 787 grounding, I had published my 787 delivery expectations for 2013. While the Boeing continued to execute the production plan despite the grounding and even hit the 7/month production rate far earlier than I had projected, I was expecting that this rate break would occur in early July, it occurred in April when Boeing loaded ZA452 (LN 114, G-ZBJC), Boeing will still have the after effects of the delays to deliveries because of the grounding.  Boeing has a finite number of resources to devote to production flight and ground testing though I have no doubt that they will try to draw on the maximum number of test flight personnel to mitigate the effects of the grounding and get the deliveries back on schedule by the end of the year.

Boeing has said that they will deliver more than 60 787s this year.  Thus far they have delivered 3; one each to Air India, ANA, and LOT Polish and I believe that when 2013 is complete, Boeing would have delivered a total of 75 787s or which 10 would be pre-L/N 66 aircraft that had gone through the modification process at the EMC in Everett.  20 of these 75 aircraft would come from the final assembly line in Charleston, SC and the remainder from the Everett line.  This number does not include the 3 787-9s expected to be built in Everett and flying as part of the -9 flight testing and certification process.

One thing to note that this number includes 4 787s to be delivered to United Airlines.  UAL, its most latest 10Q filing with the SEC on April 25th, said they expect to receive 2 787s this year but I do not believe that this takes into account to increase in 787 production rate that occurred in April.  Their 10Q in July 2013 should shed a little bit more light on their delivery expectations.  Another measure to look at is the actual delivery date of the first 787 to Royal Brunei Airlines.  Before the grounding this airlines was expecting its first 787 around September 1, 2013.  If Boeing is able to deliver around this date then we know that they are back on schedule though there are some 51 787s ahead of it at this point.

Below is my table of the customers and how many 787s I expect them to receive from today on out to Dec. 31st.