Well U Turn Al (Akbar Al-Baker for the uninitiated), the CEO of Qatar Airways, is at it again. The bane of both Boeing and Airbus is now saying that Qatar Airways won't accept any 787s until the FMS (fan mid shaft) in each of his 787s are replaced. Currently 10% of the 787s he ordered is outside at Everett waiting to be delivered. The demand defies logic in the face of the investigation and recommendations made by the NTSB, FAA, GE and Boeing. Thus far the cracks of the FMS is attributable (it appears) to the coating on the FMS. GE is altering the way it applies the coating but it does not appear that the FMS has to be changed out in total unless crack have been discovered. The FA also has put out recommendations for airlines to inspect the FMS every 90 days for cracks. With action on the issues facing the GEnx engines, airlines are continuing to fly the engine on both the 787 and 747. U Turn Al is trying to leverage this issue for more compensation from GE it appears.
The whole issue of the delays is further clouded by other possible reason for the delay:
1) Refurbishment of the interior after Qatar insisted that Boeing displays its first 787 at the Farnborough Air Show.
2) Wholesale change out of the interior which necessitated the aircraft to go to California to have the interior changed out by the OEM as Boeing couldn't do it.
3) Issues with the IFE/WIFI system that Qatar had bought from Thales.
So the bottom line is when will deliveries commence? A source has told me that deliveries should commence no earlier than the end of October but don't be surprised if this is pushed even beyond that. At the end of the day this is not Boeing's fault but rather the actions of a press hungry, attention seeking, egomaniacal airline executive.
Boeing is also waiting to deliver the 1st 787 built in Charleston to Air India. Once again (unsurprisingly) the delivery is being held up by the Government of India. ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) is ready to be delivered but there is no word on when from Boeing. It was expected last week but never occurred. Rumor has it that it could be this Thursday, Oct. 4th but I've heard that one before. We'll truly know when the aircraft is wheels up out of Charleston and heading for India.
On the bright side, Boeing delivered ANA's 15th 787 which was ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) on Sunday and was flown to Japan last night. Boeing is now up to 26 deliveries over all, 23 in 2012 and 7 in September.
Showing posts with label ZA135. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ZA135. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Qatar Airways delaying 787 delivery
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Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Boeing up to 22 787 deliveries in 2012 more to follow
Boeing has delivered it 25 787 overall and 22nd of this year. Boeing has also surpassed the most deliveries for one month and is now up to 6 787s delivered this month with the potential for 3 to 4 more by the end of this week. ZA178, (LN 27, JA824J) was delivered yesterday afternoon and I believe it should fly away tonight. There aren't any deliveries planned for today but I do believe we can see the first Charleston built 787 delivered this week to Air India, ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) as well as one more to ANA, ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) and one more to Ethiopian ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR). It is possible for Qatar first 787, ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to be delivered but there is still no word on this. If all four aforementioned aircraft are delivered then Boeing would have achieved 10 deliveries in one month and would have delivered 29 787s to 7 customers. The 2012 total would be 26 and they would need to deliver 8 airplanes per month over the next quarter to achieve 50 787 deliveries.. a doable but challenging task.
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Friday, September 21, 2012
Qatar Airways 787 delivery delayed due to IFE, internet connectivity issues
The expected delivery of Qatar Airways' first 787 is being delayed because of issues with the IFE and specifically the Internet connectivity that the airline is equipping on its 787 fleet. They continue to test the aircraft even as far as flying it to Yuma Arizona on Sept. 20th and back. The Qatar Airways' delivery team from Doha is in Seattle right now so there must be hope that the issues would be resolved soon. No date has been set for delivery at this time. In related news, Strategic Aero has an interesting article about 777X and Qatar pushing Boeing to offer the aircraft for sale.
Boeing does continue to fly several Dreamliners that are slated for delivery soon including those for United, ANA (2), JAL and Ethiopian. These airplanes maybe delivered this week into next week and it is rumored that United pilots took out the 1st 787 for it's final customer test flight today prior to delivery. It does seem that Boeing is making a big push to get many of the 787s out the door as possible before the end of the month (and end of quarter). Here are the planes that I see possibly being delivered in the last 10 days of September:
Air India
ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ANA
ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A)
ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A)
JAL
ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J)
Ethiopian
ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR)
United Airlines
ZA288 (LN 53, N20904)
Qatar Airways (tentative)
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
If Boeing can get these seven airplanes delivered (they're very close) then they would have delivered 10 787s this month.
Boeing does continue to fly several Dreamliners that are slated for delivery soon including those for United, ANA (2), JAL and Ethiopian. These airplanes maybe delivered this week into next week and it is rumored that United pilots took out the 1st 787 for it's final customer test flight today prior to delivery. It does seem that Boeing is making a big push to get many of the 787s out the door as possible before the end of the month (and end of quarter). Here are the planes that I see possibly being delivered in the last 10 days of September:
Air India
ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ANA
ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A)
ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A)
JAL
ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J)
Ethiopian
ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR)
United Airlines
ZA288 (LN 53, N20904)
Qatar Airways (tentative)
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
If Boeing can get these seven airplanes delivered (they're very close) then they would have delivered 10 787s this month.
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Saturday, August 11, 2012
Updated 787 delivery information
Activity around Everett has increased in recent days as far as the 787 is concerned. ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) continues pre-delivery test flight, ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) performed a customer test flight and ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) conducted its B-1 flight). Even though August is almost one half over a posting on airliners.net says that there will be 7 Dreamliner deliveries made this month not including deliveries to Air India. The delivery train starts this Monday (August 14th) with first delivery to Ethiopian of ZA262. Less than a week later ZA100 will deliver to ANA on the 20th.Qatar Airways is scheduled to be the 4th carrier to take the 787 (ZA461) around August 22nd followed by LAN (ZA536) on August 27th. ANA takes one on August 28th (ZA119). Both JAL (ZA182) and ANA (ZA118) take one each on August 30th. Again this schedule is subject to change and many of these deliveries can move to a later date. If this schedule holds then it would be the most 787s delivered by Boeing in one month and will add 3 new airlines flying the 787.
It is possible that Air India could be added this month but they are having a very hard time arranging financing to pay for the jets that are ready for delivery and is reflective of their financial distress. It is unknown if Boeing will penalize them for not taking delivery in a timely manner but Air India has been aware that these airplanes are ready for delivery but chose not to pursue financing until after they got approval to take delivery from the GoI. This reinforces the view of many that this is a very poorly managed airline. The Air India -787 saga continues, unfortunately.
September is also promising to be just as good as August was in terms of '87 deliveries with United and China Southern both taking their first airplanes. All September deliveries are tentatively scheduled for the second half of September and kcks off with Ethiopian taking delivery of ZA264 (LN 71, ET-AOR) on Sept. 18th as well as United (ZA288, LN 53, N20904) also signing for its first 787 on the same day. Two days later Japan Airlines will take its 6th 787 which is an early build Dreamliner, ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J). ANA takes a 787 which is the first 787 to be rolled out without needing to go to the EMC. ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) should deliver around September 25th. Qatar Airways will take its second 787, ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCD) on September 27 but also delivering on that date will be the first '87 for China Southern. This airplane is ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727).
All together this is 13 787s that is scheduled to be delivered over the next 6 weeks and will take Boeing to 25 787 delivered in 2012 not including tentative deliveries to Air India if and when that happens. By the end of September, if all goes according that what I laid out in this post, then there will be 7 customers flying the 787 by the end of the third quarter possibly 8 with Air India.
It is possible that Air India could be added this month but they are having a very hard time arranging financing to pay for the jets that are ready for delivery and is reflective of their financial distress. It is unknown if Boeing will penalize them for not taking delivery in a timely manner but Air India has been aware that these airplanes are ready for delivery but chose not to pursue financing until after they got approval to take delivery from the GoI. This reinforces the view of many that this is a very poorly managed airline. The Air India -787 saga continues, unfortunately.
September is also promising to be just as good as August was in terms of '87 deliveries with United and China Southern both taking their first airplanes. All September deliveries are tentatively scheduled for the second half of September and kcks off with Ethiopian taking delivery of ZA264 (LN 71, ET-AOR) on Sept. 18th as well as United (ZA288, LN 53, N20904) also signing for its first 787 on the same day. Two days later Japan Airlines will take its 6th 787 which is an early build Dreamliner, ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J). ANA takes a 787 which is the first 787 to be rolled out without needing to go to the EMC. ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) should deliver around September 25th. Qatar Airways will take its second 787, ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCD) on September 27 but also delivering on that date will be the first '87 for China Southern. This airplane is ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727).
All together this is 13 787s that is scheduled to be delivered over the next 6 weeks and will take Boeing to 25 787 delivered in 2012 not including tentative deliveries to Air India if and when that happens. By the end of September, if all goes according that what I laid out in this post, then there will be 7 customers flying the 787 by the end of the third quarter possibly 8 with Air India.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Updated 787 delivery info for July and August
There is new updated delivery information from a variety of sources concerning future deliveries of the 787. First off, ANA apparently has taken delivery of another 787 probably yesterday. ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) was delivered and should fly to Japan tonight. Apparently that looks to be the only delivery being made this month. However there is more clarity on future deliveries including those to Air India.
Air India - Ajit Singh, the Minister of Civil Aviation, reported that the GoI's CCEA should be taking up the matter of the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing in about 15 days. Now how soon after approval will these airplanes be delivered is another question. According to a posting on airliners.net, the carrier can take delivery of four '87s before August 5th from the flightline at Charleston. This is a rumor and there is nothing official to back it up as of yet. We just have to stay tuned for this drama to play out.
LAN - The first aircraft for LAN has now been moved to the flightline and will presumably be starting the pre-flight testing prior to its B1 flight. There has been some confusion as to when LAN will take this airplane but now there seems to be some clarification. The CEO of LAN told Flightglobal that the carrier will take delivery in September.
ANA - ANA's 787 fleet is well into double digits with several more on the way. There are 4 787s that are winding its way through pre-flight at Everett. According to a posting in airliners.net, ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be making it's B1 flight tomorrow (July 18). This airplane is projected (of course not certain) to deliver around August 8th. The three other 787s are all airplanes that didn't need any re-work done at the EMC. It is quite possible that all these four airplanes can deliver in August though it's more likely that a couple will deliver in August and a couple more in September from this batch. There are still 2 more late build airplanes that are in storage that wold have to finish some amount of change incorporation and I would expect that these airplanes will be delivered later this fall. a, ZA118 is registered as JA813A (LN 67).
Finally, here's an interesting article that sums up Farnborough 2012 air show from aerospace analyst Saj Ahmad.
Air India - Ajit Singh, the Minister of Civil Aviation, reported that the GoI's CCEA should be taking up the matter of the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing in about 15 days. Now how soon after approval will these airplanes be delivered is another question. According to a posting on airliners.net, the carrier can take delivery of four '87s before August 5th from the flightline at Charleston. This is a rumor and there is nothing official to back it up as of yet. We just have to stay tuned for this drama to play out.
LAN - The first aircraft for LAN has now been moved to the flightline and will presumably be starting the pre-flight testing prior to its B1 flight. There has been some confusion as to when LAN will take this airplane but now there seems to be some clarification. The CEO of LAN told Flightglobal that the carrier will take delivery in September.
ANA - ANA's 787 fleet is well into double digits with several more on the way. There are 4 787s that are winding its way through pre-flight at Everett. According to a posting in airliners.net, ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be making it's B1 flight tomorrow (July 18). This airplane is projected (of course not certain) to deliver around August 8th. The three other 787s are all airplanes that didn't need any re-work done at the EMC. It is quite possible that all these four airplanes can deliver in August though it's more likely that a couple will deliver in August and a couple more in September from this batch. There are still 2 more late build airplanes that are in storage that wold have to finish some amount of change incorporation and I would expect that these airplanes will be delivered later this fall. a, ZA118 is registered as JA813A (LN 67).
Finally, here's an interesting article that sums up Farnborough 2012 air show from aerospace analyst Saj Ahmad.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Are 787 deliveries slowing down?
UPDATE: I got word that Qatar's first 787 will be delivered in August but it's still open as to when in August. Given that at Everett there are only three 787s that have had their B-1 flight thus far (ANA, Qatar, & Ethiopian), I'm going to say that only one 787 will be delivered this month. There hasn't been any word on other 787s that will have their B-1 flight but I expect that at least 2 more will take to the skies for the B-1 flight before the end of July in order to be delivered next month (ZA100 and ZA135).
There has been raised hopes and expectations that aviation geeks around the world would see an avalanche of 787 deliveries starting this summer. However we've seen only a trickle and I am at a loss to explain it. The Everett ramp is getting full of 787s that have either finished change incorporation or are airframes that do not need to go through the EMC but just have a few hundred small jobs left to be done. As successive airplanes come out of 40-26 the number of jobs that remain have fallen to less than 150 with ZA182 (LN 70) for JAL. This aircraft has yet to appear on the Everett flightline though it has been more than 9 days per line move on July 3, about 12 days ago. We may yet see ZA182 as early as tomorrow or Monday.
In terms of getting these planes ready for delivery, while the monster jobs of change incorporation have been completed on those airplanes, there is still a long line for delivery as these planes must go through the step by step process of pre-flight ground test, Boeing flight tests, customer flight tests as well as customer inspections and quality control reviews. It appears that there doesn't seem to be enough resources to tackle all this work for the 8-9 aircraft that are lined up ready for their turn. Both ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) and ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) were expected to be delivered this month to ANA. It's looking like on ZA508 will make it and there is rumors of extra work needed to prepare ZA100 for flight. This is the aircraft that needed the most rework as it was the first production standard 787 to enter final assembly. It is not known when this airplane is to finally take to the air.
In the meanwhile the first 787 for LAN, ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) is now on the 40-51 ramp after being painted and is presumably finishing up some assembly tasks. There is some controversy about when it is to be delivered. with some reports saying delivery is in August but LAN is saying that they expect to take delivery of its first 787 late this year. Right next to is a 787 for ANA registered JA813A. This is registration that was assigned to ZA510 (LN 59) and previously I had it listed as in storage and not undergoing any change modification. I doubt that this airplane could have prepared to quickly though it is possible that this airplane may certainly have had some work completed while outside the EMC and it engines attached. I'm trying to find out the true identity of this airplane beyond the registration. There are some late build 787, notably ZA118 (LN 67, JA816A) and ZA119 (LN 69, JA817A) that have "gone missing." I'm assuming that these airplanes, if one of them is not the ANA 787 that currently is sitting on the 40-51 ramp, are in the paint hangar.
Lastly, it is quite possible that ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) for Ethiopian and ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways could be ready for delivery by the end of this month. The former has conduct two Boeing test flights (including the ferry flight to Ft worth) and is currently being painted in Texas. I would expect this airplane back in Everett in about 7 to 8 days. It could could still conceivably conduct customer flights after its return to Everett before the end of the month. ZA461 is more of a question mark as Boeing needs to complete some interior assembly tasks (may be related to the IFE System) prior to further Boeing and customer test flights. Again it is entirely possible that his airplane could deliver by the end of this month.
Don't even ask me about Air India.
There has been raised hopes and expectations that aviation geeks around the world would see an avalanche of 787 deliveries starting this summer. However we've seen only a trickle and I am at a loss to explain it. The Everett ramp is getting full of 787s that have either finished change incorporation or are airframes that do not need to go through the EMC but just have a few hundred small jobs left to be done. As successive airplanes come out of 40-26 the number of jobs that remain have fallen to less than 150 with ZA182 (LN 70) for JAL. This aircraft has yet to appear on the Everett flightline though it has been more than 9 days per line move on July 3, about 12 days ago. We may yet see ZA182 as early as tomorrow or Monday.
In terms of getting these planes ready for delivery, while the monster jobs of change incorporation have been completed on those airplanes, there is still a long line for delivery as these planes must go through the step by step process of pre-flight ground test, Boeing flight tests, customer flight tests as well as customer inspections and quality control reviews. It appears that there doesn't seem to be enough resources to tackle all this work for the 8-9 aircraft that are lined up ready for their turn. Both ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) and ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) were expected to be delivered this month to ANA. It's looking like on ZA508 will make it and there is rumors of extra work needed to prepare ZA100 for flight. This is the aircraft that needed the most rework as it was the first production standard 787 to enter final assembly. It is not known when this airplane is to finally take to the air.
In the meanwhile the first 787 for LAN, ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) is now on the 40-51 ramp after being painted and is presumably finishing up some assembly tasks. There is some controversy about when it is to be delivered. with some reports saying delivery is in August but LAN is saying that they expect to take delivery of its first 787 late this year. Right next to is a 787 for ANA registered JA813A. This is registration that was assigned to ZA510 (LN 59) and previously I had it listed as in storage and not undergoing any change modification. I doubt that this airplane could have prepared to quickly though it is possible that this airplane may certainly have had some work completed while outside the EMC and it engines attached. I'm trying to find out the true identity of this airplane beyond the registration. There are some late build 787, notably ZA118 (LN 67, JA816A) and ZA119 (LN 69, JA817A) that have "gone missing." I'm assuming that these airplanes, if one of them is not the ANA 787 that currently is sitting on the 40-51 ramp, are in the paint hangar.
Lastly, it is quite possible that ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) for Ethiopian and ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways could be ready for delivery by the end of this month. The former has conduct two Boeing test flights (including the ferry flight to Ft worth) and is currently being painted in Texas. I would expect this airplane back in Everett in about 7 to 8 days. It could could still conceivably conduct customer flights after its return to Everett before the end of the month. ZA461 is more of a question mark as Boeing needs to complete some interior assembly tasks (may be related to the IFE System) prior to further Boeing and customer test flights. Again it is entirely possible that his airplane could deliver by the end of this month.
Don't even ask me about Air India.
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Air India 787s on the move, Qatar 787 readied for Farnborough
Over the weekend Matt Cawby spotted the two Air India 787s that are ready for delivery sporting temporary US registration numbers on their fuselages. This lead to speculation that the aircraft are to be flown out of Everett for possible storage, maybe in the desert. Well the speculation was mostly correct. The two 787s, ZA233 (LN 29,VT-AND) and ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) will be flown to Charleston to join sistership ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) on Monday, July 2nd. Now the reason why it is being flown to Charleston isn't officially disclosed but the obvious reason could be for a triple delivery to AIr India and that still could happen but sources have told me that delivery to Air India is still listed as "TBD". It is conceivable that these three airframes for Air India will be delivered from Charleston but another reason is that if Boeing is able to turn the keys over to the carrier between July 4th and July 8th, they will be unable to fly away during those dates as the runway at Everett will be closed. This way Boeing leaves open the delivery and fly away during those dates by transferring these airplanes to Charelston. The most likely reason is to free up space in Everett for other aircraft that are ready to be delivered. Already ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) is already out of paint and need to prepare for pre-flight. ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is currently sitting in the fuel dock sans its rudder (don't know why) this aircraft is projected to be delivered at the end of July but it still needs to have its rudder reattached and go through pre-flight. The pace of aircraft reaching the flightline ready for pre-flight is quickening and Boeing needs the space. Given the uncertainty of the Air India deliveries this is a good move to keep the pace at Everett moving. ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways is already at Boeing Field to prepare to fly to Farnborough later this week this airplane is still projected to deliver later this month. Another flightline stall should open up tomorrow as ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) will deliver today, as far as I know, and should fly away tomorrow July 2. ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) should deliver around July 11th with fly away on July 12th.
On Tuesday another line move should occur which will push out ZA119 (LN 69) for ANA and will mark the start of final assembly for ZA537 (LN 74) for LAN.
On Tuesday another line move should occur which will push out ZA119 (LN 69) for ANA and will mark the start of final assembly for ZA537 (LN 74) for LAN.
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
787 Half Time Report
So now that we're coming to half way through the year I thought to do a brief review and then look forward to the second half of the 787 ball game.
Deliveries in the first half were shaky. We got word of the incorrectly installed shims on the horizontal tailplane (HTP) on many of the aircraft that were built and in service. This slowed down deliveries as it wasn't a hard problem to solve but more of a question of access to the areas of the aircraft that needed correction. As a consequence we've only seen 11 deliveries (what will be 11 deliveries by June 30th). There weren't any deliveries in February and May. The former probably due to the shim issue and the later due to issues with Air India. It was expected that Air India would have taken two 787s in May. It is now looking more like a July delivery though if the GoI approves the agreement between Boeing and Air India. ANA will be taking delivery of one 787, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A), on June 28th and should fly away on June 29th. When this airplane is delivered Boeing would have turned over 11 787s so far this year. There is a slight chance that if the GoI approves the deal between Air India and Boeing on June 28th then Boeing could possibly deliver 2 or possibly all 3 787s that are currently ready for the carrier.
As we got into late spring early summer Boeing was now sending complete aircraft that had went through the full change incorporation process and were ready for pre-flight. These airplanes were augmented on the flightline by the first airplanes that go straight from the assembly line to the flightline (ok so maybe a slight detour to get a few minor jobs done). This is a major accomplishment for Boeing as now they have more certainty in the supply chain and their production system. ZA135 (LN 66) still had a about 300 small jobs to be completed but as Boeing get further into regular production, the number of these jobs will shrink.
So in short by the end of June Boeing will have delivered 11 787 so far in 2012 and they will have 10 more that are ready for delivery in July and into August. This number also includes the three for Air India that are ready to be delivered so Boeing really has 7 to work on as far as delivery preparations are concerned.
Can Boeing deliver 10 next month? It sure is possible but they will need to devote a lot of resources to get those planes ready, especially those coming off the assembly line. Currently ZA 135 (LN 66) just made its way into the paint hangar today while ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is now on the flightline ready for ground and flight tests. They still have to deal with the other aircraft that are coming off the assembly line, currently 1 787 every 9 days, the next line move is July 3. Boeing should push out 4 787s from 40-26 to the flightline during the month of July but I don't think they'll deliver in July due to the backlog of airplanes that are currently have to go through pre-flight.
Looking forward.
The next 6 months ahead is full of promise with deliveries to a lot different customers but also challenges when Boeing attempts to ramp to 5/month which I anticipate should occur around October. Beyond ANA and JAL, Boeing should deliver to Air India (fingers crossed), Qatar Airways, Ethiopian, LAN, United, LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan and China Southern. I'm still maintaining my view that Boeing will deliver 21 airframes straight from the assembly line (no change incorporation) in addition to the 11 that were delivered in the first half of this year. That is 32 airplanes. Add to that at least 4 787s (I think they do have the capability to deliver 5-6) from Charleston and yo are now at 36. There are currently 6 more that are in various stages of pre-flight (doesn't include LN66 and above or anything built in Charleston) or ready for delivery. Now we are at 42. Assuming 1.5 787s per month delivered from the inventory that is stored around Everett (that is 9, then we can realistically see 51 deliveries this year. This does not even factor in other production positives like activation of the surge line or the increase to 5/month. The final total could be substantially higher than 51 787s with these conditions factored in. Again this is all assuming that production continues without a hitch and that Boeing continues to drive down the assembled 787 inventory.
Deliveries in the first half were shaky. We got word of the incorrectly installed shims on the horizontal tailplane (HTP) on many of the aircraft that were built and in service. This slowed down deliveries as it wasn't a hard problem to solve but more of a question of access to the areas of the aircraft that needed correction. As a consequence we've only seen 11 deliveries (what will be 11 deliveries by June 30th). There weren't any deliveries in February and May. The former probably due to the shim issue and the later due to issues with Air India. It was expected that Air India would have taken two 787s in May. It is now looking more like a July delivery though if the GoI approves the agreement between Boeing and Air India. ANA will be taking delivery of one 787, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A), on June 28th and should fly away on June 29th. When this airplane is delivered Boeing would have turned over 11 787s so far this year. There is a slight chance that if the GoI approves the deal between Air India and Boeing on June 28th then Boeing could possibly deliver 2 or possibly all 3 787s that are currently ready for the carrier.
As we got into late spring early summer Boeing was now sending complete aircraft that had went through the full change incorporation process and were ready for pre-flight. These airplanes were augmented on the flightline by the first airplanes that go straight from the assembly line to the flightline (ok so maybe a slight detour to get a few minor jobs done). This is a major accomplishment for Boeing as now they have more certainty in the supply chain and their production system. ZA135 (LN 66) still had a about 300 small jobs to be completed but as Boeing get further into regular production, the number of these jobs will shrink.
So in short by the end of June Boeing will have delivered 11 787 so far in 2012 and they will have 10 more that are ready for delivery in July and into August. This number also includes the three for Air India that are ready to be delivered so Boeing really has 7 to work on as far as delivery preparations are concerned.
Can Boeing deliver 10 next month? It sure is possible but they will need to devote a lot of resources to get those planes ready, especially those coming off the assembly line. Currently ZA 135 (LN 66) just made its way into the paint hangar today while ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is now on the flightline ready for ground and flight tests. They still have to deal with the other aircraft that are coming off the assembly line, currently 1 787 every 9 days, the next line move is July 3. Boeing should push out 4 787s from 40-26 to the flightline during the month of July but I don't think they'll deliver in July due to the backlog of airplanes that are currently have to go through pre-flight.
Looking forward.
The next 6 months ahead is full of promise with deliveries to a lot different customers but also challenges when Boeing attempts to ramp to 5/month which I anticipate should occur around October. Beyond ANA and JAL, Boeing should deliver to Air India (fingers crossed), Qatar Airways, Ethiopian, LAN, United, LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan and China Southern. I'm still maintaining my view that Boeing will deliver 21 airframes straight from the assembly line (no change incorporation) in addition to the 11 that were delivered in the first half of this year. That is 32 airplanes. Add to that at least 4 787s (I think they do have the capability to deliver 5-6) from Charleston and yo are now at 36. There are currently 6 more that are in various stages of pre-flight (doesn't include LN66 and above or anything built in Charleston) or ready for delivery. Now we are at 42. Assuming 1.5 787s per month delivered from the inventory that is stored around Everett (that is 9, then we can realistically see 51 deliveries this year. This does not even factor in other production positives like activation of the surge line or the increase to 5/month. The final total could be substantially higher than 51 787s with these conditions factored in. Again this is all assuming that production continues without a hitch and that Boeing continues to drive down the assembled 787 inventory.
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Sunday, June 17, 2012
787 Deliveries to take place soon
According to a post on a forum on Airliners.net, ANA should be taking delivery of 2 787s. ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) will deliver tomorrow June 18 and ZA507 (LN48, JA810A) will deliver on June 19. Additionally ZA509 (LN56, JA812A) will deliver on June 28th according to the post. In terms of the Air India deliveries, that is still to be determined. It seems that the GoI has not given the go ahead as of yet on the deal between Air India and Boeing. If approval comes this week then I can see deliveries starting very soon thereafter.
July deliveries
The post also said that ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) and ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) will be delivered around July 31 and July 11 respectively and it may be possible for ZA135 (LN 66, JA813A) to be delivered during this month as well, this aircraft is still undergoing final assembly tasks on the apron. Qatar Airways, it seems may not take delivery this month but that Boeing will conduct its first flight and then send it to Farnborough under Boeing control and ownership after which Boeing will complete all necessary pre-delivery operations prior to handing the aircraft over to Qatar Airways. I also wouldn't be surprised to see further handover of aircraft to JAL and Air India in July.
Finally, I expect a line move late this week, around Friday the 22nd which should push out the first 787 for LAN, this is ZA536 (LN 68).
July deliveries
The post also said that ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) and ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) will be delivered around July 31 and July 11 respectively and it may be possible for ZA135 (LN 66, JA813A) to be delivered during this month as well, this aircraft is still undergoing final assembly tasks on the apron. Qatar Airways, it seems may not take delivery this month but that Boeing will conduct its first flight and then send it to Farnborough under Boeing control and ownership after which Boeing will complete all necessary pre-delivery operations prior to handing the aircraft over to Qatar Airways. I also wouldn't be surprised to see further handover of aircraft to JAL and Air India in July.
Finally, I expect a line move late this week, around Friday the 22nd which should push out the first 787 for LAN, this is ZA536 (LN 68).
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
The mystery of 787 number 66 part deux
Well there seems to be a little bit more clarity on ZA135 (LN 66) and whether this airplane is in for storage or if it is being prepared for delivery. Yesterday the a picture by Moonm showed ZA135 (LN 66) with engines hanging but with all the windows and doors sealed. There was considerable debate what this meant and if it was a sign that this airplane still had to go through change incorporation. Today local Everett photographer Matt Cawby flew around Paine Field and some of his photos showed ZA135 being worked on outside building 40-51. Of particular interest is that this airplane now has some of the window and door seals removed. The window masking is still on (presumably in preparation for painting). This is a good sign that Boeing intends to move this airplane into the standard pre-delivery work and test flights. Another less obvious sign is that Boeing moved one 787 from one flightline stall to another. ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern went from stall 102 to stall 201. Stalls 101 to 109 have been used by Boeing to prepare 787s for delivery. It's conceivable that stall 102 is where ZA135 will be parked as it is prepared for delivery. Lastly, Matt's photos shows the wheels of the airplane uncovered as opposed to those that are being stored around Paine Field. This indicates that Boeing will be moving the airplane from its current spot soon. Where to is another question. The next movement of this airplane will give a more clear indication of the future of this airplane and whether Boeing has indeed turned the corner in 787 production. It is very, very close.
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Air India and Boeing come to an agreement
Media outlets in of India are reporting that Air India and Boeing have come to an agreement over the 787 delays. Those reports did not specify the form of compensation though it may involve Air India paying less for each 787 as they are delivered. The agreement has to be approved by the Government of India so that is a reason to be cautious of this agreement. It was the Government of India that insisted on more compensation than had been previously agreed with Boeing.
If approval is given, Air India will take delivery of three 787s: ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH), ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) all in June. ZA233 is already to go now and I suspect that ZA236 is not that far behind. ZA237 is being painted and has still go through a few more Boeing test flights as well customer tests before it is delivered by the end of this month.
If the approval is given, Boeing can potentially deliver 8 787s this month. 4 787s to ANA that are on the flightline right now: ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A), ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A), ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A), ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A). Additionally Boeing can deliver ZA461 (LN 58) to Qatar Airways this month. This would make 8 airplanes including the three for Air India. ZA135 (LN 66) is an unknown but should be ready for delivery if not by the end of June then certainly in early to mid July.
If approval is given, Air India will take delivery of three 787s: ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH), ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) all in June. ZA233 is already to go now and I suspect that ZA236 is not that far behind. ZA237 is being painted and has still go through a few more Boeing test flights as well customer tests before it is delivered by the end of this month.
If the approval is given, Boeing can potentially deliver 8 787s this month. 4 787s to ANA that are on the flightline right now: ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A), ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A), ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A), ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A). Additionally Boeing can deliver ZA461 (LN 58) to Qatar Airways this month. This would make 8 airplanes including the three for Air India. ZA135 (LN 66) is an unknown but should be ready for delivery if not by the end of June then certainly in early to mid July.
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
The mystery of 787 number 66
Well a partial mystery. In an earlier post, I revealed that ZA135 (LN 66) was pulled out of the final assembly line in building 40-26 and out onto the apron in front of Boeing's final assembly hall. At the time I wasn't sure if it had engines attached or if the airplane was buttoned up. Thanks to a spotter in the Everett area the airplane is buttoned up (windows and doors are covered up and sealed). However it does have the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 hanging from the wings. Boeing has not equipped 787s with engines until they are ready to be delivered. However, the airplanes are sealed if they are going to spend time in storage until it has to go through change incorporation. It seems that there is a mixed message with this airplane. Perhaps it is ready to go straight to the flightline for the standard pre-delivery work including painting but Boeing needs to deliver the other 787s that are on the verge of delivery. There are 4 787s that are being readied for delivery to ANA along with one for Qatar and two for Air India. Perhaps there is a small amount of work that needs to be done on this airplane and then it can go straight into pre-delivery? I suspect the answer is something in between. Where this airplane goes will be the next clue as to the state of the 787 program. If there is still work to be done and it has an extended stay on the Boeing tarmac, that is not good at least in the short term and the expectation that Boeing has turned the corner on the program would be severely damaged. If however the plane is able to take flight before the end of the month then it's not an issue and Boeing would have truly turned a corner.
Another 787 pushed out, airplane 66 out the door
Boeing has pushed out ZA135 (LN 66) from build 40-26. This is supposed to be the first airplane that goes from assembly line to flightline. Currently it is parked on the 40-51 (building) apron west. I don't know if it has its engines attached or not but hopefully a spotter would be able to get photos of it to determine if it engineless and buttoned up like other 787s that have to go through the change incorporation process or if the windows and doors are uncovered and the airplane has its engines hanging off the wings. If, as expected, this airplane has its engines then it should be ready to go to paint/aqueous wash followed by ground and flight testing prior to delivery to ANA.
We have to wait and see but this information is current as of today.
Additionally there are 3 787s in 40-24 undergoing change incorporation. These airplanes are ZA175 (LN 20) for JAL, ZA261 (LN 44) for Ethiopian and ZA287 (LN 52) for United.
No word on upcoming deliveries in June as of yet.
We have to wait and see but this information is current as of today.
Additionally there are 3 787s in 40-24 undergoing change incorporation. These airplanes are ZA175 (LN 20) for JAL, ZA261 (LN 44) for Ethiopian and ZA287 (LN 52) for United.
No word on upcoming deliveries in June as of yet.
Friday, June 1, 2012
Boeing asked to pay for Air India's mistakes and ineptitude
How much does Air India want Boeing to pay for AI's mismanagement and incompetence...$1,000,000,000.00. That amount is equal to over $37mm per 787. Now Boeing does owe Air India compensation for the delays but certainly $37mm is waaaay over the top. What Air India wants Boeing to do is pay for years of bureaucratic mistakes and idiocy at the air line. They couldn't even effectively merge Air India and Indian Airlines and the result is a huge strike that is financially hurting the airline. Now Air India want Boeing to pay for the financial costs of the strike.
Air India, of course, has no where to go and at the end they will have to blink. Boeing can easily deliver these airplanes to another customer though Boeing would have to hold on the the 787s while the BFE (buyer furnished equipment) is delivered to them for installation. Air India would be without the fuel efficient aircraft it so desperately needs to remain competitive with Emirates, Qatar Airways and other international carriers and it will further hurt their bottom line. I certainly hope that Boeing doesn't blink. They shouldn't be held hostage due to Air India's extremely poor decision making. Here's an Op-Ed from the New York Times regarding the Air India situation:
NYT: Air India’s Boeing Showdown Could Be a Mistake
In other news, I got wind of the 787s that are in the EMC at Everett. They are:
Bay C, ZA262, LN49, Ethiopian
Bay B, ZA382, LN43 China Southern
Bay A, ZA380, LN34, China Southern
Bay D, ZA287, LN52, United
Bay AW, ZA178, LN27, JAL
Quite interesting that ZA100, LN 7 is not there anymore. I don't know where it is hiding but it was at EMC for a good long while. I have to wonder if it's close to being delivered? Well we all know that there weren't any 787 deliveries in May but it could be setting up for a big June for the 787 program. There should be 4 787s for ANA and 1 for Qatar that would be delivered this month. If Boeing and Air India come to an agreement then that is another 3. I also expect that the first 787 to go from assembly line to flightline would be pulled out in a couple weeks. ZA135 (LN66) could sneak in under the wire to be delivered to ANA in June though the chances are remote but it would certainly be delivered by end of July.
Air India, of course, has no where to go and at the end they will have to blink. Boeing can easily deliver these airplanes to another customer though Boeing would have to hold on the the 787s while the BFE (buyer furnished equipment) is delivered to them for installation. Air India would be without the fuel efficient aircraft it so desperately needs to remain competitive with Emirates, Qatar Airways and other international carriers and it will further hurt their bottom line. I certainly hope that Boeing doesn't blink. They shouldn't be held hostage due to Air India's extremely poor decision making. Here's an Op-Ed from the New York Times regarding the Air India situation:
NYT: Air India’s Boeing Showdown Could Be a Mistake
In other news, I got wind of the 787s that are in the EMC at Everett. They are:
Bay C, ZA262, LN49, Ethiopian
Bay B, ZA382, LN43 China Southern
Bay A, ZA380, LN34, China Southern
Bay D, ZA287, LN52, United
Bay AW, ZA178, LN27, JAL
Quite interesting that ZA100, LN 7 is not there anymore. I don't know where it is hiding but it was at EMC for a good long while. I have to wonder if it's close to being delivered? Well we all know that there weren't any 787 deliveries in May but it could be setting up for a big June for the 787 program. There should be 4 787s for ANA and 1 for Qatar that would be delivered this month. If Boeing and Air India come to an agreement then that is another 3. I also expect that the first 787 to go from assembly line to flightline would be pulled out in a couple weeks. ZA135 (LN66) could sneak in under the wire to be delivered to ANA in June though the chances are remote but it would certainly be delivered by end of July.
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Boeing readies more ANA 787s but AI planes are in limbo
Where to begin as there's a lot of new stuff.
First let's take a look at the positives. Boeing has 4 787s being readied at Everett for ANA. These are ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A), ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A), ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A), and ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A). ZA 508 is currently in the paint hangar but this plane had spent some time at EMC so I do believe that it is getting its aqueous wash and paint job done before being pulled to the fuel dock for fueling tests then to the flightline for mini gauntlet, engine start and first flight. Thus Boeing will have 4 787s ready for ANA in June maybe more. There has been a line move and currently the 4 787s that are inside 40-26 are ZA135 (LN 66, position 4), ZA118 (LN 67, position 3), ZA536 (LN 68, position 2) and ZA119 (LN 69, position 1). All but ZA536 are for ANA with ZA536 going to LAN. It is conceivable but not certain that ZA135 can go straight to paint and flightline with its engines and start preparation for delivery in about 2 weeks and can possibly be delivered at the end of June. This will be a major milestone for Boeing when it happens. Also ZA461 (LN 58) has made an appearance at the Everett Fuel Dock and I believe that this airplane is being prepared for delivery. I expect it will go into the paint hangar shortly before re-emerging for pre-delivery tests and final delivery to Qatar Airways in June and on display at Farnborough in July. Lastly, ZA237 (LN 46) has filed a flight plan fro Charleston to Fort Worth so this airplane can be painted for Air India. It is currently still in Charleston delayed by weather in the Dallas area. This last point is a nice lead into....
The Negatives
Only one (HUGE) negative which Air India. and here I just don't know where to start my rant. I (and probably 99.9% of of the world) thought that the issue of compensation to Air India for the delays was settled. According to the Govt. of India it is not and thus Boeing may have a dozen 787s for Air India sitting on the ramps at Everett and Charleston waiting to be delivered. The Air India debacle is a case study on how not to run an airline particularly when you are government owned and you have bureaucrats who know nothing of the airline industry making key decisions. ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) is all ready to be delivered and I suspect so is ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH). How long it will take to complete the negotiations on compensation is anyone's guess but this is Air India attempting to have Boeing pay for the decisions made by the carrier mistakes once again. The pilots strike over who flies the Dreamliner is also bleeding the carrier so they need money and they're going to Boeing for that money. This saga won't end until Boeing has delivered the 27th and final 787 to Air India and washes their hands of them.
First let's take a look at the positives. Boeing has 4 787s being readied at Everett for ANA. These are ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A), ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A), ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A), and ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A). ZA 508 is currently in the paint hangar but this plane had spent some time at EMC so I do believe that it is getting its aqueous wash and paint job done before being pulled to the fuel dock for fueling tests then to the flightline for mini gauntlet, engine start and first flight. Thus Boeing will have 4 787s ready for ANA in June maybe more. There has been a line move and currently the 4 787s that are inside 40-26 are ZA135 (LN 66, position 4), ZA118 (LN 67, position 3), ZA536 (LN 68, position 2) and ZA119 (LN 69, position 1). All but ZA536 are for ANA with ZA536 going to LAN. It is conceivable but not certain that ZA135 can go straight to paint and flightline with its engines and start preparation for delivery in about 2 weeks and can possibly be delivered at the end of June. This will be a major milestone for Boeing when it happens. Also ZA461 (LN 58) has made an appearance at the Everett Fuel Dock and I believe that this airplane is being prepared for delivery. I expect it will go into the paint hangar shortly before re-emerging for pre-delivery tests and final delivery to Qatar Airways in June and on display at Farnborough in July. Lastly, ZA237 (LN 46) has filed a flight plan fro Charleston to Fort Worth so this airplane can be painted for Air India. It is currently still in Charleston delayed by weather in the Dallas area. This last point is a nice lead into....
The Negatives
Only one (HUGE) negative which Air India. and here I just don't know where to start my rant. I (and probably 99.9% of of the world) thought that the issue of compensation to Air India for the delays was settled. According to the Govt. of India it is not and thus Boeing may have a dozen 787s for Air India sitting on the ramps at Everett and Charleston waiting to be delivered. The Air India debacle is a case study on how not to run an airline particularly when you are government owned and you have bureaucrats who know nothing of the airline industry making key decisions. ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) is all ready to be delivered and I suspect so is ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH). How long it will take to complete the negotiations on compensation is anyone's guess but this is Air India attempting to have Boeing pay for the decisions made by the carrier mistakes once again. The pilots strike over who flies the Dreamliner is also bleeding the carrier so they need money and they're going to Boeing for that money. This saga won't end until Boeing has delivered the 27th and final 787 to Air India and washes their hands of them.
Monday, August 8, 2011
787 Production Update
I've learned today the customers who will be receiving 787s designated from LN 64 to LN70.
They are as follows:
ZA463/LN64 to Qatar Airways
ZA182/LN65 to Japan Airlines
ZA135/LN66 to ANA
ZA118/LN67 to ANA
ZA536/LN68 to LAN
ZA119/LN69 to ANA
ZA240/LN70 to Air India
I don't have information, as of yet, where each will be built (Everett or Charleston) but I'm working to try and get that information. Boeing is planning to increase its 787 production rate to 2.5 airplanes a month by the end of this month.
They are as follows:
ZA463/LN64 to Qatar Airways
ZA182/LN65 to Japan Airlines
ZA135/LN66 to ANA
ZA118/LN67 to ANA
ZA536/LN68 to LAN
ZA119/LN69 to ANA
ZA240/LN70 to Air India
I don't have information, as of yet, where each will be built (Everett or Charleston) but I'm working to try and get that information. Boeing is planning to increase its 787 production rate to 2.5 airplanes a month by the end of this month.
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