Big changes for 787 program as manufacturing defects, demand and Covid-19 sends Dreamliners into storage

The past year has been a challenging one for the Boeing 787 program.

Even before COVID-19 became a household word, global commercial aviation was already facing a downtrend in the demand for widebody aircraft like the 787.  2019 saw a decrease in new 787 orders to such a point that Boeing was considering a rate cut. Covid-19 added to the production and delivery stresses for the 787 but now the manufacturing issues with the circumferential fuselage join where the skin of the airplane does not meet certain flatness or smoothness criteria at the the areas of fuselage join has all but stopped 787 deliveries though Boeing still is continuing to push production through both 787 final assembly lines though at a vastly reduced rate.  These two factors have created a glut of stored 787s at Charleston, Everett as well as at Victorville and a couple other smaller sites around the country.

However, the issue is not relegated to just newly assembled aircraft at Everett and Charleston or stored airplanes but also to those in service with airlines around the world.  Those Dreamliners will have to be checked during their next maintenance period and then repaired.

Some readers may recall that earlier this year, a few of Boeing's customers had to ground 8 newly built 787s because of 2 separate improper manufacturing issues that, when combined, had weakened the rear fuselage sections (sections 47/48) of the each of the grounded Dreamliners.  

Now the new issue surrounding the circumferential fuselage join where the sections of the 787 are mated and fastened together can have gaps that are created by the manufacturing flaw.  The flaw is not related to work done at any one location or by any one of Boeing's partners but is related to how the strips of carbon fiber tape are laid on the fuselage mold and cured in the high temperature and pressure autoclaves.  Boeing is still investigating how this issue has developed but it appears that they have a fix or are in the process of developing a fix.

Now this issue has huge implications for Everett and Charleston and the move of all final assembly work from Washington State to South Carolina.  The last Everett produced 787 will be a 787-9 for Hawaiian Airlines (ZE315, LN 1129).  

In a letter leaked to this blog, Lane Ballard, 787 program vice president and general manager and BSC site leader, says that Boeing has been "performing quality inspections related to fuselage skin flatness and shimming on all aspects of the 787 fuselage join. These inspections are taking place on yet-to-be-delivered airplanes" to ensure quality of the airplanes to be delivered. Boeing is also engaging in join verification requirements during in sequence assembly at each final assembly position.

However there is some big news concerning Everett's involvement in addressing the manufacturing issues amongst the fleet of built but yet to be delivered 787s that are being stored. Boeing is currently planning to simultaneously reduced the 787 build rate to 5/month and transfer all 787 final assembly to Charleston in March 2021. This means that there is freed up space at Everett to do the join verification and inspections as well as the rework of those affected joins thus while production has stopped at 40-26, there will be on going work to correct the manufacturing issues taking place at Everett's newly abandoned final assembly line. The join verification, inspection and rework to current in production 787s will also slow down final assembly in order that this work be done properly.

According to Ballard, Boeing South Carolina will also free up space in two final assembly positions in 88-30 for the inspections and rework: "All four of the current Everett 787 final assembly positions will become join verification positions, and two additional positions will continue to be utilized in the Butler building (building 45-12) at the Everett site. Additional join verification positions will be created in the South Carolina final assembly facility, while the balance will remain production positions." Boeing's "intent is to leverage additional resources in Mid Body, Aft Body and Everett Final Assembly to staff the respective join verification positions at their location. This join verification activity, however, will likely extend 787 work in Everett beyond the production consolidation plan." 

Ballard also added that "Airplanes that are stored until delivery, and airplanes currently in our production system, will go through this join verification process. Stored airplanes assembled in Everett will go to Everett for join inspection and delivery, and stored airplanes assembled in South Carolina will go to South Carolina for join inspection and delivery."

It remains to be seen how deliveries in 2021 will be impacted but currently Boeing has 88 787s that are in final assembly or in pre-delivery (including storage, and predelivery test flights or awaiting the start of test flights).  This back log will undoubtedly grow in the first quarter of 2021 but should start to shrink around March-April as the program breaks rate to 5 per month and the first few airplanes to complete the inspections and rework are delivered.

Boeing's ability to deliver 787s to customer's is also going to be impacted by the financial health of those customers themselves.  Covid-19 has hit the airlines extremely hard and I don't believe that some of these airlines will survive let alone be in a financially stable condition to accept new 787s.  Norwegian is one airline that comes to mind.  They have been in trouble even before the pandemic but the drastic reduction in revenues makes their viability to continue doubtful.  The airline recovery from Covid-19 as well as the 787 delivery skyline is dependent on the availability of the newly approved vaccines not just here in the United States but elsewhere around the world.  Transmission rates worldwide need to come down if intercontinental travel that utilizes the 787 is to recover.

Lastly, I want to add a word about the future of this blog and the spreadsheets I use to track the 787 program.  I know I've been away for over a year (due to demands of my regular job) but I plan on continuing to post 787 updates when I can but unfortunately I have lost several sources that have been invaluable to this blog and to posting updates to the 787 spreadsheets.  I'll try to update the spreadsheets as best as I can but unless I get new sources of solid information it will be difficult.  If there are any followers/readers of this blog out there who can supply me with information, I as well well as the followers of this blog will be most appreciative.  Please reach out to me.

787 Spreadsheets

787 Production Slow Down (or stoppage) at Everett?

UPDATE (9/20/2017; 11:35PM): Matt Cawby just informed me that it appears that a 787 should roll out of 40-26 in the next few hours.  Prior to this roll out, Everett was assembling a 787 in 16 days.  This next aircraft (ZB220) took 22 days to assemble and thus still begs the questions as to why the assembly time has gone up from 16 days to 22 days? Additionally, Matt Cawby reported that ZB220 and the airplane that rolled out before that one (ZB276) didn't have their engines fitted thus I wonder if the hold up is due to Rolls Royce?

For the past few days I've noticed that Everett hasn't rolled out a Dreamliner since September 9th when ZB276 (LN 621, ET-AUO) a 787-9 was rolled out of the 40-26 building where the 787s are assembled.  Thus far in September, Boeing has rolled out 2 787s and started assembly on another 2 aircraft.

I don't know the reason why there has not been any further unloading (roll outs) of the 787s from the last assembly position 4 at Everett but the fact that Charleston is still turning out 787s on a regular basis does suggest that the reason doesn't seem to be related to design or assembly of the airplane in general though I wouldn't discount an assembly SNAFU on one or more of the airplanes currently in 40-26.

Typically, at Everett, once the 787 has completed work in position 4 it is rolled out to the 40-51 ramp where minor assembly tasks are completed.  The airplane then usually goes to the paint hangar or the fuel dock depending on the availability of the paint hangar.  It then follows the normal Boeing pre-flight ground testing followed by the flight tests and delivery.  According to Chris Edwards, a spotter at Everett, there hasn't been any 787 movements out of building 40-26 and confirmed that ZB220 (LN 623, HS-TWB), the next 787 to roll out is still inside.  Chris also noted that it took about 2 weeks to paint QANTAS' first 787-9 which is a long time for a livery as simple as QANTAS'.  There is a very small chance that the airplanes that were the next to roll out went straight the paint hangar but it would mean that Boeing would have had to complete all assembly tasks inside including minor ones and then roll it out.  I doubt that this has happened.

I'll keep watching this situation as report as circumstances warrant but it is too early to determine if this is a major issue and what, if any, impact this will have to the 787 delivery schedule.

Boeing 787 deliveries reach over 300; posts 12 deliveries in July

Over 4 years ago the 787 program was starting to emerge from most of the issues that had plagued the program since 2007. The first delivery was right around the corner to ANA. A little less than 4 years after program deliveries began, a time when Boeing was barely reducing 2 787s each month. Now Boeing has reached 300 deliveries coming from 2 different production facilities running at 10 per month for 2 different models of the 787.  Boeing announced #300 though Randy's Journal, but they won't name the carrier.  It's possible that it was ANA but that is speculation on my part.

Boeing's 300th 787 delivery come amidst a drive to increase the delivery rate in the third quarter.  I'm not sure which airline accepted delivery of number 300 but it is either ANA, United Airlines, Etihad or Air Canada.  Through July 31st Boeing has delivered 304 787s, 76 in 2015 and 12 in the month of July.  The aircraft maker also rolled out 11 787s from its factories; 7 from Everett (including the surge line in 40-24) and 4 from Charleston.  11 787s starting final assembly in July with 5 on the main Everett line in 40-26, 1 going to the surge line in 40-24 and 5 in Charleston.

Production efficiency improved this month, particularly at Everett as 9 Everett 787s were delivered vs, 7 rollouts.  Charleston was hurt because of the delayed delivery of the two Kenya Airways jets.  Their efficiency number was not as good given the 3 deliveries vs. 4 roll outs.  Overall the 787 efficiency was .92 a good number but could have been better if Kenya was ready to take its 2 remaining 787s.

July deliveries would have been higher but for Kenya Airways and PrivatAir deferring the delivery of  3 787-8 which are ready to be handed over.  PrivatAir's delivery now looks to be in August and the two Kenya Airways may be handed over in September.

Looking forward, Boeing is planning for 15 deliveries including the PrivatAir delivery.  6 airplanes slated for August delivery have yet to take their B-1 flights including 2 787s at Charleston.  Only 4 are ready for the August delivery but that will, of course, change over the next couple of weeks.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 July 2015 Mid Month Update

Now that the second half of the year is underway, we should expect to see some changes in the 787 program the most visible of which is the production taper of 787 temporary surge line in Everett.  Last month there were 3 787s loaded into the Surge position 1 to start final assembly.  Starting this month Boeing will load only one 787 into the surge line in building 40-24 and that will come at the end of the month for the next four months.  40-24 is going to be a very lonely place until 777X production get started in three years.

The 2 787s from surge production are being allocated one each to the main lines in Everett 40-26 and North Charleston 88-30.  In fact North Charleston production is already very busy with 8 airplanes on the final assembly floor and another 6 on the flightline.

Boeing can deliver a total of 12 787s this month,  8 787-8 and 4 787-9.  I expect that there can be up to 6 deliveries in July from North Charleston including one 787-8 for PrivatAir that was assembled At Everett but ferried to South Carolina.  One 787-8 for Kenya Airways was supposed to be delivered in June but was held up at the request of the customer for unknown reasons.  Sources say that this airplane should be delivered this month which would be the 6th delivery out of North Charleston.  Some notable deliveries would include the first 787-8 for Scoot and Vietnam's first 787-9 as well as the aforementioned first 787-8 for PrivatAir.  Boeing has already delivered 2 787, both to Jetstar.

Thus far through today, July 15, 2015, Boeing has delivered 2 787s this month, 66 in 2015 and 294 total since deliveries began in September 2011.

There was some good news and some potentially not so good news for the 787 program.  First the not so good news.  Zodiac Aerospace has more trouble again when an explosion occurred (a possible chemical explosion) at its interior fabrication plant in Newport, Washington.  Both Boeing and Airbus are reviewing the impact to their production lines but I do believe that this will impact Boeing more than Airbus.  It is unclear if it will impact 787 deliveries at this point.

The good news for the 787 program is that the 787-10 has completed its CDR (critical design review) and is on its way to having 90% of detailed engineering drawings completed by the end of the year.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 Dreamliner 2015 mid year report

2015 so far is a good year for the 787.  Midway through 2015 Boeing has delivered 64 787 including 23 787-9.  In June Boeing delivered 10 787 - 6 787-9 and 4 787-8.  One the production front, the program loaded 64 different air frames to start final assembly and rolled out 63 by June 30th.

In terms of efficiency, the Everett lines were slightly more efficient at a ratio of 0.96 for the first half of 2015 versus North Charleston at 1.05.  June was not a very efficient month for North Charleston as its efficiency ratio in June was 2.0 versus Everett at 0.88.  For North Charleston the score was skewed by 4 deliveries made in May and only 2 in June while production rate was around 3 and 4 respectively.  In other words there was an extra delivery made in May and I suspect there will be 4 deliveries from North Charleston in July.

With quarter end there usually is a push to get as many airplanes delivered as possible but Boeing 787 deliveries from May to June were down from 13 to 10.  While still respectable, the 787 delivery number was hurt by continued issues with seat installations in airplanes destined for American Airlines and Etihad Airways.  Additionally, the change in production rate in Charleston may have slowed things a bit as Boeing is being careful with the break in rate at both 787 lines now that the surge line is winding down.

Speaking of the surge line, there are only 4 more 787 air frames that are scheduled to be built on that line.  Boeing will now slow that line down to a point where only 1 787 will be loaded each month from July to October (there were 3 loaded in June). With the 2 surge air frames now going to 40-26 and 88-30.  There will be an increase in the number of air frames on the Charleston flight line as there is a transition time where deliveries will have to catch up to the production rate.  This may not happen until the end of the summer.

For the last half of this year, expect that 787-9 deliveries will outnumber 787-8 deliveries which is expected as there are over 475 787-9 to be delivered against just under 200 787-8.  In fact June 2015 was the first month where 787-9 deliveries did outnumber 787-8 deliveries as mentioned earlier.  I expect this trend to more or less continue each month.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing 787 May 2015 Mid Month Report

Midway through the month of May, Boeing is set up quite nicely to delivery a good number of 787s to customers.  Thus far Boeing has delivered 4 787s this month including the last of American's 787-8 that were delayed due to the seat issues at Zodiac.  Thus far Boeing has delivered 273 787s, 45 during 2015 and 4 in the month of May.

More encouraging is the level of 787 flight test activity that has occurred over the last week and a half.  There have been a number of customer flights that have taken place and as a consequence, there are 6 aircraft that are ready to be delivered including at least 5 that are expected to be delivered on May 21st.  Boeing is expected to conduct a customer flight in a next couple of days on a 787-9 for United Airlines that will be delivered from Charleston.  Thus we can see 6 787s delivered by the start of the Memorial Day weekend for a total of 10 in May with a few more expected to be delivered by the end of May.

However there is a more impressive statistic that I would like to share.  The last 15 787 deliveries made by Boeing (essentially the 11 April deliveries and the 4 May deliveries) required and average of 3.8 test flights before the airplanes were handed over.  This average excludes the flights made by Charleston built airplanes for painting purposes.  Another impressive statistic:  Over the same 15 airplanes (excluding the last 2 American Airlines 787s that were delivered during this period) the average time from start of final assembly to delivery is 89.5 days across all three lines in Everett and Charleston.

If Boeing can execute, they can potentially have delivered 13 787s this month, 53 for 2015 and 282 787 delivered since program deliveries began in 2011.  There is a potential hiccup though it doesn't seem to be serious.  There are three 787-9 for Etihad that have completed final assembly but have not had any test flights.  The aircraft are painted but have been sitting on the flightline.  One airplane, ZB079 (LN 286, A6-BLC) having finished final assembly activities in mid February....3 months ago! Another, ZB080 (LN 302, A6-BLD) rolled out about a month ago.  A third, ZB081 (LN 305, A6-BLE) rolled out of final about 3 weeks ago and just came out of paint a few days ago.  I can only speculate that these airplanes are being held up because of issues with Zodiac as well.  It appears that these airplanes will be delayed for just as long as the ones for American.  These three are the only remaining deliveries to Etihad this year.

Lastly, with about 6 months left before the temporary surge line is shut down for good, There are still 12 airplanes that are in assembly or will go through final assembly by November.  Boeing will start 2 more 787s this month, 3 next month (June) and then execute a rate break whereby 2 airplanes will go one each to the main Everett line and the main Charleston line.  From July to October, Boeing will send only 1 787 to the temporary surge line.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing to shut down 787 surge line by year end to take advantage of production efficiencies; start up 777X production

On Friday Boeing announced the decision to shut down the 787 temporary surge line in Everett and move the assembly of airplanes from that line to the main lines in 40-26 and 88-30.  By the end of the year both lines will be producing 5 787 per month.

The decision to close it down is certainly not a shock but to shut it early was a surprise.  Efficiency gains that were realized earlier than expected on both the Charleston and Everett lines allowed for cost reduction that come with merging the three lines into 2.  Boeing figured that it now costs less to produce 10 airplanes in 2 line than it does on 3 lines.  Boeing will start converting the line to in order to do assembly activities on the 777X which is slated to start production around 2017-2018.

The switch over will down gradually over the next 6 months.  Charleston should be at 4 by the start of July while 40-26 will be producing 5 and 40-24 will be at 1.  By November, the switch over from 40-24 to 40-26 and 88-30 should be complete. The last 787 to be built on the TSL will load around October and in November all future assembly activities will be done either on 40-26 or 88-30. ZB236 (LN 381) will be the last aircraft built on 40-24.  This airplane is for AerCap and being leased to KLM.

Boeing started production on the 40-24 surge line in the 3rd quarter 2012 as means to reduce schedule risk associated with opening the Charleston line as well as a means to catch up on deliveries delayed by the repeated Dreamliner production issues.  The line no has fulfilled its mission and 40-24 will now be used to support production of early 777X airplanes.

Beverly Wyse's statement to BSC employees regarding the surge line shutdown:

Today Boeing Commercial Airplanes announced that we’ve finalized plans to close the Everett 787 Dreamliner Temporary Surge Line (TSL) later this year to allow the 777X Program to transition into the factory space currently occupied by the TSL and begin production preparations for the 777X. We are confident that the timing is right for this transition, and our ability to do so this year is a testament to our teams’ capabilities. 

With the phasing out of the TSL, BSC Final Assembly will produce five additional airplanes, meaning that we will transition to our Final Assembly production rate of five per month earlier than planned.

We continue to work on improvement with some of our suppliers, and we’re confident in your ability to execute this plan. I am committed to insuring that BSC remains stable and that we follow our site overtime guidelines so our teammates enjoy time off with their families. 

This is great news for our site further demonstrates the very high level of confidence that the Boeing executive leadership team has in your abilities. Boeing South Carolina has quickly earned a reputation for successfully rising to any challenge with our “Bring it On” attitude, and if any team can do this -- and do it successfully, it’s you! 

As always, thank you for your hard work and dedication!

Beverly 

The 6 787-8 that were ordered from an unidentified customer late last month will be coming from the lot of early build 787s (also known as the "Terrible Teens").  The customer ordered Roll Royce engines throwing into doubt about who is the end user.  I had speculated that the order is for Ethiopian or a lessor with a n agreement to lease the airplanes to Ethiopian given the news over the past month or so.  However, Ethiopian's current fleet of 787s use GEnx engines.  IT's still very possible that the airplanes can end up with Ethiopian who don't mind using the Trent-1000 engines.

From the firing order it also appears that TUI Travel has ordered the 787-9.  It's still too early to know how many but the order must be one of the unidentified 787-9 orders that is listed on Boeing's order and delivery web site (there are 4 separate orders).  Also on the firing order is 2 additional 787-9 for united Airlines (LN 443 and LN 445).  They had recently reduced their 787-9 order to 16 so I believe the changes hadn't made it way through the system.  I fully expect that LN 443 and LN 445 will be allocated to another 787-9 customer within the next couple of months.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing attempts to build and deliver 787-9 in 67 days

Boeing is going to try and build and deliver a 787-9 for Scoot in 67 days.  The aircraft in questions, ZB130 (LN 308, 9V-OJD) started final assembly on March 23 and rolled out on April 22, which was 30 days later, from the main 787 assembly line 40-26 in Everett.  It took its first flight today, May 6 which is 2 weeks after rolling out and is projected to spend 23 days in pre-delivery.

ZB130 still has to be painted that should happen between May 10 and May 15th with delivery occurring on May 29th.  This would be 67 days from the time the aircraft entered final assembly to the time it would be delivered.  Of course this could be derailed if there are maintenance or build issues or if Scoot is not prepared to take delivery for some reason.

If Boeing is able to accomplish this, it would be a milestone event in the 787 program as Boeing has yet to build and deliver a 787 in under 70 days.  The current record is 76 days when Boeing built and delivered a 787 to Arke (owned by TUI Travel) earlier this year.  That aircraft, ZA324 (LN 281, PF-TFM) was built in Everett and spent 38 days in final assembly (40-24 surge line), 24 days in pre-flight testing and paint, and 14 days in pre-delivery.  Boeing would hve more confidence in increasing the production rate as well reaffirm their production methods with the aim of further reducing production costs.  If Boeing can demonstrate faster production and delivery times, it can go a long way to reducing 787 production costs which has been a drain on its earnings,

787 production cost still increasing but at a slower rate as deliveries become more streamlined.

There was a little drama as I work up Thursday morning to an email from Google Blogger saying that they had deleted my blog.  A number of readers emailed me about it and a forum topic on airliners.net was created.  Here's the story.  Bloggers automated systems accidentally flagged the blog a TOS (Terms of Service) violator for phishing.  Well nothing can be further from the truth about this blog or my intentions.  I appealed to Blogger to restore the blog which they had thankfully done but for a few hours I was faced with the disheartening possibility of loosing my archived blog posts though the 787 tables were unaffected and are still accessible if you had the URL.  Lesson learned - I'm going to back up my blog posts.  Now back to our regularly scheduled programming!

The 787 program made progress on the delivery front but it continues to be a drag on Boeing’s financial results.  Notably, deferred production cost increased during the 1^st quarter by $793mm to $26.9bn and increased 787 deliveries dragged down operating margins for BCA from 11.8% to 10.5% (because of the continued high cost of producing each 787 vs. the actual cash they have bought in is negative).  While Boeing is still struggling to drive down 787 production cost, they expect to see a net profit on each unit produced sometime late this year and also reported that 787-8 unit costs over the last 190 787-8 deliveries declined 30% while 787-9 unit cost declines 25% over the first 20 deliveries.  Boeing says that they expect deferred costs to start declining soon after they achieve rate break to 12/month which is expected to take place in late 2016.  Greg Smith, Boeing's CFO said:

When you look over that time frame (fourth quarter 2014 to 1st quarter 20015), we have seen improved performance. In particular, I noted on the 787-9, is they're coming down the learning curve in a very aggressive manner. And I think that goes to the lessons learned off the 787-8 in getting those into the production system. So that introduction of that airplane is going very well. And as you know, that will be close to half of our deliveries this year. So that smooth introduction is important.

Looking at 787 production at Everett and Charleston, it does appear that Boeing is making a drive to reduce assembly times as well as time to delivery.  In reviewing the 787 tables we can see that the time in final assembly in Charleston is about 42 to 46 days while in 40-24 the assembly times is around 37 to 39 days.  In 40-26 the final assembly times is much shorter..around 30 days.  Post assembly times are also improving with Charleston airplanes taking about 40 to 50 days from the end of final assembly to delivery.  At Everett the time is now ranging from 45 to about 75 but the more realistic time frame is about 60 days. Overall both locations are taking about 90 to 110 days to assembly, test, fly and deliver 787s though it appears that the numbers are trending down, particularly in North Charleston.  Of course, delivery times is also driven by customer needs so while Boeing may be ready to deliver, the customer may not be.

A silver lining is that 787 deliveries thus far are more evenly spread out this month rather than being bunched up at the end of the month as is generally the case with 787 deliveries.  This can only help reduce cost in the program as Boeing doesn't have to spend more money in overtime at month end trying to make deliveries to customers thus bunching up the aircraft deliveries in the last few days of the month.  I do expect at least 5 more deliveries this month including 2 to American Airlines.  To date Boeing has delivered 266 787s, 38 787s in 2015, and 8 in April.  22 787-9s were delivered thus far and I expect that the number of 787-9 delivered, which are higher margin aircraft, should increase dramatically this year.  

Obviously Boeing deliveries numbers have been impacted by the production issues at Zodiac especially deliveries to American and Etihad.  No doubt 787 delivery numbers would have been stronger without the Zodiac issue.  Boeing doesn't expect the Zodiac problem to impact their delivery numbers for this year but the issue will persistent until the end of the 2nd quarter after which it is assumed that Zodiac would have its act together.

Lastly, Boeing's order book took a temporary hit when United Airlines, as expect, converted 10 787-9 to 777-300ER.  Additionally, American Airlines deferred 5 787s that were to be delivered in 2016 to 2017(4) and 2018(1).  American will now take 13 787s this year (3 already delivered), 8 in 2016, 13 in 2017 and 8 in 2018.  United is expected to take 11 more 787-9s by the end of the 1st quarter of 2016.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 production and delivery update, March 10, 2015

Production

Boeing's 787 production continues at the 10/month pace so far in March but according to sources it appears that Boeing will start final assembly on 11 aircraft this month including 5 on the main Everett line.  Boeing is planning, later this year, to reduce 787 production on the surge assembly line (in 40-24) by 2 airplanes and allocate one each to the main lines in Everett and North Charleston.  This should take place around October.

Just recently Boeing started final assembly on the first 787-9 for Vietnam Airlines which should be delivered around May.  Another interesting development was a reallocation of 787-8 L/N 339. Initially this aircraft was going to go to Air India as ZA251 and would have been the carrier's 22nd 787-8.  This aircraft has been reallocated to American Airlines as ZA827 and will be the airlines' 11th 787 when it's delivered around September.  Thus American will take 13 not 12 787s while Air India will take 3 not 4 787s this year.  This reallocation lends strong evidence that Boeing and Air India maybe close to an agreement whereby Air India will take their remaining 787 orders (6 in total) as 787-9s.  A formal announcement has yet to be made but it appears to be close.  Air India does have financing in place for the remaining two deliveries.  One is to occur this month and the last will occur in June.

Flight Testing and Deliveries

Production flight testing seems to have slowed down during the month.  While 10 airplanes have been in various stages of flight testing Boeing does appear to be aiming for a large number of deliveries this month.  Boeing has already delivered 2 787s to Scoot and Virgin Atlantic but looks to try and deliver 13 more 787s this month for a total of 15.  I think a more realistic number will be 12 more deliveries by the end of March.  To complicate matters, I'm still wondering at the slow pace of deliveries to American Airlines.  The carriers' 3rd 787 made a trip to Victorville, Ca., a trip that the airlines' first 2 787s didn't conduct.  I can only speculate the reason but in the past Boeing has sent aircraft down to Victorville for 1) storage, 2) IFE/Seat/BFE installation, or 3) flight testing.  I think we can rule out 3 which leave only the first two.  I have no indication which one it is.  Additionally, there are three other 787s for American Airlines sitting on the tarmac at Everett though two are recent roll outs and have yet to be painted the third is painted and has been outside for quite sometime yet no B-1 flight has been conducted.

The 787 program is nearing 250 (249 delivered thus far) deliveries and should have delivered 25% of the total current 787 orders by the end of April.

Lastly, there has been a lot of questions (and confusion of costs related to the 787 program, namely deferred production costs and carry-loss forward and how it relates to the break even on the program. Vero Venia put together this great post describing it in great detail and I recommend the read.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 Production Looks to be improving

Analysis of 787 final assembly trends at Boeing's Everett plant seems to point to an improvement in the amount of traveled work that is reaching Everett.  Looking at the movements of recently completed 787s at Everett, I've noticed that, with the exceptions of 787s for Etihad and American Airlines, Boeing hasn't been sending rolled out 787s to the Everett Modification Center to finish assembly tasks that were delayed due to traveled work.

The last current production 787 that visited the EMC was ZA199 (LN 271, JA840J) for Japan Airlines which was there until early February.  Since then there have been 6 787s that have been rolled out to the 40-51 ramp but none have made the trip to the EMC though some have spent some time on the ramp outside the 40-51 building to finish minor assembly activities.  Currently, the only 787s that are at the EMC are 3 early build aircraft, the 3 787-9 flight test aircraft and one 787-8 for American Airlines.

With regards to American Airlines and Etihad, it seems that for the aircraft for those two carriers will continue to go to the EMC because of delays in delivering the premium seats from Zodiac until the production issues are smoothed out.  This is pretty good news for the 787 in terms of the production costs which Boeing has been wrestling with since the start of production.  It does not mean the end of traveled work as Boeing expects that to continue.  Many aircraft programs have some amount of traveled work but the 787 issues have been very painful, very public and very plentiful.  They will continue to have some amount of traveled work but it will eventually get to a point where the work can be completed in final assembly as opposed to being rolled out to the 40-51 ramp to be finished.

As always, I'll keep track of this trend but continued reduction of traveled work to a point where the airplanes no longer have to go to the EMC is very good news to the program.

Boeing to curtail 787 surge line final assembly activities later this fall

According to analysis of final assembly activities for the 787, Boeing is planning to shift final assembly of some 787s currently being built on the surge line (in 40-24) to the main final assembly line in Everett and the North Charleston line.  Currently, Boeing assembling 4 787s/month on the main line in 40-26, 3/month on the surge line in 40-24 and 3/month on the North Charleston line in 88-30.

Around October, Boeing will reduce the number of 787 airplanes assembled on the surge line by 2 aircraft/month and reallocate 1/month each to 40-26 and the North Charleston line.  40-26 will assemble 5/month and North Charleston will assemble 4/month while the surge will still assemble 1/month.  It has been Boeing's plan to use the surge line as a temporary line while they got the North Charleston line up and running and increasing the production rate from 3/month to 10/month.

I believe Boeing has enough confidence in the North Charleston facility to to increase its production rate early.  Boeing is supposed to increase the North Charleston rate to 5/month in 2016 but it appears this may happen sooner than expected.  I do believe that in 2016 Boeing will shut down the 787 surge line reallocate the lone aircraft on that line to 40-26 and then when they ready to up the rate to 12/month, assign 1 each to 40-26 and 88-30.

The surge line is planned to be used for final assembly of the initial batch of 777X.

787 Mid Month Report - October, 2014

With 10 days left in the month, Boeing seems to be struggling to get production airplanes into the air for testing prior to delivery by the end of this month.  Thus far Boeing has delivered 5 787s this month but I do expect 1 more to deliver by the end of this week.  With those deliveries Boeing will hit 199 deliveries and I believe the 200th delivery will go to Qatar Airways when ZA475 (LN 207, A7-BCP) is delivered to the carrier around October 27.  Boeing is trying to deliver a total of 11 787s this month including a -9 to United Airlines.  Production flight testing seems to have slowed though it's unclear why.There are still a number of aircraft that still need to perform further Boeing and/or customer flights before they're ready for delivery within the next 10 days.

On the production front Boeing has rolled out 8 787s and started final assembly on another 8.  They will end rolling out a total of 11 787s from final assembly this month.  The inventory backlog sitting on the flightlines at Everett and Charleston won't change this month.  The schedules for many 787s deliveries have been pushed to the right.  For example, Avianca's first 787 was supposed to have been delivered in September.  It is now scheduled to be delivered in mid November.  As we move into November Boeing will change the final assembly line slightly in 40-24 (the surge line).  Instead of the 6 positions that are currently in use (0, 1A, 1B, 2, 3, 4), Boeing will go back to 5 positions starting around October 29th. (0, 1, 2, 3, 4).  I believe this is in preparation of winding down the surge activities by 2016 and moving all Everett 787 production to 40-26.

Production is slow and 787 inventory is growing.  While I don't have any concrete information as to why 787 deferred production costs are rising ($25.2bn through the end of the third quarter), I feel that it is undoubtedly due to the traveled work following all these airplanes.  For a 787 to go from the start if final assembly to delivery takes almost 4 months and therein lies the problem for the increase in deferred production costs.  These airplanes, going through the production system at Everett and Charleston, have to spend a lot of time finishing assembly tasks after final assembly is completed.  The promised efficiencies on the final assembly level have yet to materialize but Boeing insists they will start turning profitable on the 787 program in 2015. Part of the increase in production cost is due to the introduction of the 787-9.  These aircraft had to spend time at the EMC undergoing change incorporation as well as finishing traveled work.  As the aircraft is more integrated into the 787 production system and change incorporation is no longer necessary, cost to produce the 787-9 should come down  and should aid the overall reduction of deferred production costs in 2015.

I believe that in order to gauge that is to closely examine the time it takes for Boeing to get a plane from start of final assembly to delivery.  We need to see the aircraft coming out of final assembly without any traveled work.  This means that the 787 goes from the final assembly hall to the paint hangar then directly to the flightline to start production testing.  It also means that Boeing minimizes company and customer test flights which indicates improved build quality.  Currently Boeing has 32 787s (including the the "Terrible Teens" but not including those that are in production) in Everett.  This rising inventory needs to be cleared faster than the current rate which can be tracked on the production Trends spreadsheet.  Simply, Boeing needs to deliver 787s faster than then they are rolling them out at the factory.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

787 Update - August 19, 2014

787 deliveries picked up the first two and half weeks into August with 7 deliveries thus far including British Airways 8th and final 787-8.  They are second customer to have its 787-8 completely fulfilled this year (China Southern being the other).  In the next 12 days I do see Boeing delivering 7 more Dreamliners between the 20th and the 31st.  Currently they have delivered 177 787 since deliveries began, 63 this year, 15 thus far in the quarter and 7 so far this month.

The upcoming deliveries would include United's first 787-9 though Boeing is still waiting for the final FAA Type Certification for the GE powered aircraft.  We should also see the first deliveries to Royal Jordanian and Xiamen this month when they take 1 787-8 each.  Deliveries should also be made to Qatar, Jetstar (QANTAS), Kenya Airways and ANA.

For September, Boeing is looking to end the 3rd quarter 787s delivery on a bang with about 18 (maybe 19) deliveries.  The preliminary plan is for Boeing to deliver up to 4 787-9s including the first to Virgin Atlantic as well as one more each to ANA, Air New Zealand and United.  Also we can see the 10th and final delivery to Ethiopian of their order of 10 787-8s though they are going to be taking more on lease from AerCap. Both Avianca and CIT Leasing will take ownership of their 1st 787s.  In the case of CIT, these aircraft are being leased to Royal Jordanian.

While deliveries look promising this month, Boeing will start final assembly on only 7 787s this month.  It appears that there will be delay in the start of final assembly of LN 240 and LN 241 while Boeing South Carolina will continue producing at 3/month.  The word I've heard is that this to allow the start of transitioning of work from the surge line in 40-24 to 40-26 and the eventual shut down (in 2016) of the 787 surge line in 40-24.  Right now the surge is producing 3 787s while the main line is producing 4.  It'll be interesting to see how Boeing handles the transition over the next couple of years.

In September, Boeing should start final assembly on aircraft destined for American Airlines (2), Scoot and Royal Air Maroc.  If they are to deliver 26 airplanes by the end of September then Boeing can potentially have 203 total deliveries, 89 this year, and 41 in the third quarter.  They will have to put the pedal to the metal in terms of production flight testing however.  The next couple of leading up to the Labor Day holiday will probably be very slow as people go on vacation but come September 2nd the pace should quick substantially.  If they are able to deliver a substantial number of 787 in the next month and half then Boeing could potentially deliver closer to 120 787s this year.  Please note that there are a lot that can happen that would cause this estimation to go out the window but it does appear that Boeing is on a good track to deliver the delivery guidance.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

787 update - August 8, 2014

787 Deliveries in July

Boeing had a so-so delivery month in July with deliveries of only 8 Dreamliners.  They could have done better but I do think they are set up to deliver upwards of 15 787s in August.  July deliveries included ANA's first 787-9 which they are planning to press into service in early august n domestic routes in Japan.  In terms of production efficiency, Boeing delivered 8 aircraft rolled out 11 787s from all assembly lines.  That translates to an efficiency rating of 1.38 (11 rollouts/8 deliveries).  The lower the number the more efficient the program.  The Charleston plant delivered 3 and rolled out 3 for an efficiency of 1 while Everett delivered 5 aircraft and rolled out 8 giving it a an efficiency of 1.6.  Currently it does appear that Charleston is producing more efficiently given this metric but it doesn't take into account unforeseen circumstances that would not be in the control of Boeing or at either plant (i.e. customer difficulties, etc.). Eight days into August and thus far there have been 3 deliveries.  There has also been a noticeable pick up in flight testing tempo.  I do project that in addition to the 3 already delivered in August, Boeing can deliver 12 more of which 10 have flown and 2 more are awaiting their B-1 flights.

787 Production

The production pace at both plants continue as before with several more -9 entering final assembly in Everett.  Boeing is gradually shifting Everett 787 production from 40-24 where the surge line is located to 40-26 which is the main production line to a point where the surge line will shut down in 2016.  This will allow 40-24 to be freed up for 777X production that should start around 2017 after the surge line undergoes re-construction to prepare it for 777X production.  The build rate in 40-26 appears to be about 6 manufacturing days while in 40-24 it appears to be about 7 manufacturing day.  Over the next 18 months I expect the manufacturing days in 40-26 will decrease to about 3 days as Boeing slowly transfer the surge production to the main line.  During August we should seeing a couple of first: the 1st 787-9 for Scoot and the 1 787-8 for American Airlines should start final assembly during the 3rd week of August and both aircraft should deliver around November.
In Charleston the expansion continues as Boeing continues construction in the 88-30 line in order to prepare it to handle 7 airplanes/month by 2019. Work continues on a new paint facility and firefighting station but the expansion will not likely stop there. Currently the build rate is about 7 days at Charleston which will have that team pulling 3 787s out per month and delivering the same number in August.
The one big news for Charleston came out at the end of July.  Boeing announced that they will build the 787-10 exclusively in Charleston. The reason that was given that the fuselage can't fit into the Dreamlifter for transport to Everett.  According to some information that I received that is technically not true.  The fuselage can fit into the Dreamlifter but the FAA has set a limit as to the length of an object that can be carried by the aircraft.  The mid body fuselage for the 787-10 exceed the maximum length allowed by the FAA. For some time this decision was anticipated to go to Charleston and frankly was not a surprise. Neither was it a surprise that Charleston will taken on the additional rate increase that Boeing has planned for 2016 and around 2018-2019 to take the rate up to 14 aircraft per month.  Boeing has announced that they will build the -10 in Charleston but it remains to be seen if they will conduct certification flight testing in Charleston or if the 787-10 will conduct all it's testing out of Boeing Field where Boeing Flight Test team is headquartered.  It is conceivable that they can set up the facilities necessary to conduct certification tests in Charleston but I doubt that Boeing would take the expense to do that just for one derivative.  Most likely the test flight fleet will be flown to Boeing Field and testing will be based out of Seattle.  The location of the -10 shouldn't change the employment outlook at Charleston but the increase in work as well as the increase of the Boeing foot print in the Charleston area will drive the employment at the Boeing facility.
Here's Boeing's Statement on the 787-10:

Boeing to Assemble 787-10 Dreamliner in South Carolina

EVERETT, Wash., July 30, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] announced today that final assembly of the 787-10, the newest and longest member of the 787 Dreamliner family of airplanes, will take place exclusively in North Charleston, S.C. 

Boeing will continue to assemble both 787-8s and 787-9s in Everett, Wash., and North Charleston. Design of the 787-10 is underway in Everett, with final assembly of the first 787-10 scheduled to begin in South Carolina in 2017. 

"We looked at all our options and found the most efficient and effective solution is to build the 787-10 at Boeing South Carolina," said Larry Loftis, vice president and general manager, 787 program, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "This will allow us to balance 787 production across the North Charleston and Everett sites as we increase production rates. We're happy with our growth and success in South Carolina, and the continued success at both sites gives us confidence in our plan going forward." 

The 787-10 will be 18 feet (5.5 meters) longer than the 787-9. With 10 feet (3 meters) of that increase in the midbody section, the 787-10 midbody is too long to be transported efficiently from North Charleston, where systems integration work is performed, to the Everett facility for final assembly. In addition, introducing the 787-10 in North Charleston takes advantage of that facility's capacity while allowing the Everett facility to continue improving productivity as it focuses on the 787-8 and 787-9. 

The 787 production system includes three production lines: two in Everett (including a temporary surge line) and one in South Carolina. The integrated production system currently operates at a production rate of 10 airplanes per month. As announced last year, the 787 production rate will increase to 12 airplanes per month in 2016 and 14 per month by the end of the decade.  

The Everett facility will continue to assemble seven airplanes per month, while Boeing South Carolina final assembly will gradually increase from three 787s per month today to five per month in 2016 and seven per month by the end of the decade.  

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner family of airplanes offers airlines unmatched fuel efficiencies and environmental performance, while providing a new level of comfort for passengers through the thoughtful application of new technologies. To date, the 787 family has won more than 1,000 orders and more than 165 airplanes have been delivered to 21 customers worldwide.  

The 787-10 will leverage 787 technology to provide more passenger and cargo capacity along with unparalleled seat-mile economics in the medium twin-aisle market. Since its launch in June 2013, the 787-10 has won 132 orders from six global customers.

A couple other notes of interest.  Boeing has stored a 787 that is supposed to be delivered to Azerbaijan Airlines from their order of 2 aircraft.  Rumor has it that the airline now wants to cancel the order though it is just rumor and the airline can also be delaying delivery.  It is unknown if this aircraft has an interior installed already but 2nd aircraft is scheduled to be assembled in Charleston around September for delivery in December.  This situation seems similar to the one Airbus faced with Skymark Airlines when they cancelled their A380 order after two aircraft had already been built.  For now this aircraft is in storage until there is a resolution to the situation with the customer and they will be building the 2nd aircraft as the parts are already in the supply chain. If they do agree to the cancellation then I don't think Boeing will have a problem placing these aircraft with another customer though it may take a few months depending on the interior.

Lastly, the assembly of the 787-9 is starting to hit it stride though the airplanes produced are still going through change incorporation at the Everett Modification Center.  This will continue because when the aircraft was certified there were part manufactured by Boeing or suppliers that had to be bought up to the FAA certification standards.  Many of these parts were deep within the supply chain. when the FAA issued the amended type certificate thus these parts need to be bought up to standard before the FAA certifies each aircraft as being in compliance.  This is the reason why Boeing is deliberately keeping the 787-9 assembly rate slow until the changes are reflected throughout the supply chain.  I believe that Boeing will start assembling aircraft that will not need change incorporation around the time that Charleston starts building it's first 787-9 in November for united Airlines.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

Boeing South Carolina achieves 3/month 787 production rate.

Boeing revealed to its employees yesterday that the South Carolina plant has achieved the planned 787 production rate of 3 airplanes/month when ZA660 (LN 224, 5Y-KZF) entered into position 0 on the final assembly line in plant 88-30 on June 24th.  This aircraft is destined for Kenya Airways and should deliver around September of this year.  I am assuming that Everett will slow down to 7/month given the rate change.  This means that Charleston should load a new 787 every 10 days while Everett will load a 787 every 8.6 days for each line (40-26 and 40-24).

This was an important milestone for this plant especially in light of a muckraking report in a certain Seattle newspaper this past week. 

Boeing managers hope to complete a 787 from loading into the first position to roll out in about 38 days at the new rate.  Prior to the step up in rate, the South Carolina plant was building a 787 in about 46 days and a year ago it was at 70 days. 

The plant will also start building its first 787-9 when ZB170 (LN 269) is loaded into position sometime this fall.  The aircraft will go to United Airlines sometime in March of 2015.

 

The signs of progress at Boeing South Carolina counters a false belief that the plant and its workers are not up to the challenge of building the 787 in sufficient quantities and quality that would justify the investment that was and is continuing to be made by the company.  As recently as this past week a newspaper report slammed the Boeing South Carolina workers and cast doubt on their ability to make the 787 especially in light of the bonuses that were just paid out to them for reducing the JBS (jobs behind schedule) or other wise known as travelled work. It is my understanding that the JBS number as tracked by Boeing is remaining at a flat rate.  It does appear that some people in the media are looking to highlight every mistake and incident in order to sell newspapers rather than looking at the whole story in proper context.

I attempt to put some context to the 787 production story in the form of a table that I've put together comparing number of 787s that have entered final assembly, finished final assembly and have been delivered.  The table looks at these attributes for Everett, Charleston as well as the total for both plants.

Looking at the table one can see that both plants are producing at their respective assigned rates in terms of loadings and roll outs.  We should ignore January and February as both plants were essentially ramping back up after the 2013 holidays as is  evident from the tables with the low number of loadings, rolls outs, and deliveries.  However starting in March Boeing South Carolina loaded, on average, 2.75 aircraft per month, rolled out an average of 3.25 aircraft per month and delivered an average of 2.5 aircraft per month.  This is through June 25th and I do expect at least one more delivery from North Charleston this month.

Everett has a much higher work load but during the same period the plant has loaded an average of 8 airplanes per month, rolled out an average of 8 airplanes per month and has delivered and average of 6 airplanes per month.  To look at it a different way, I take the average roll outs divided by the average deliveries in order to gauge how efficient each plant is in building and delivering 787s and this is what I have from March through June 25th:

Everett = 8/6 = 1.33
Charleston = 3.25/2.5 = 1.3

The lower the number the more efficient the plant is in building and delivering aircraft.  This shows that Charleston looks to be slightly more efficient in delivering the 787.  Please note that this is a little incomplete as we have to complete the month of June and there is at least one more 787 line move in Everett to come as well as more deliveries from each location.  Additionally, this tables ignores where the aircraft was delivered from, i.e. Charleston built aircraft for Qatar but delivered from Everett was a delivery from Charleston.
 

787 Production and Delivery Trend Table

 

 

 

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries

 

787 February Production and Delivery Report

With the first 2 months of 2014 officially in the books, the 787 program is starting to show some new signs of life but there are still some dark clouds hanging over the program but the darkest one of all is the continued travel work from Charleston's mid-body fuselage assembly. I still do not expect that the issue will be resolved until next month.

It does appear that Boeing has changed the production system a bit in light of the traveled work.  Instead of sending the aircraft out at regular intervals, regardless of completion, from final assembly to the EMC, Boeing seems to be keeping them in final assembly a bit longer than planned.  The only plausible reason is not only to finish off much if not all the traveled work but also to give more time to the Charleston team assembling the mid-body fuselage sections. I have noticed that Boeing is sending aircraft out of final assembly later compared to when these airplanes were expected out.  Just last night an Ethiopian 787 that I had expected to move out on Feb. 25th was rolled out to the EMC according to Matt Cawby. Even with the 6 day delay there is still more travelled work to be done on this aircraft. United's 1st 787-9 should load today.

Previously, it took Boeing 34 days to complete a 787 on either the main line in 40-26 or the surge line in 40-24. It appears, for now, that the number of days has increased to at least 40 days. We would have to see how long these frames stay at the EMC before being painted.

Additionally, Boeing is spacing out the time it loads a new frame into final assembly.  Previously, Boeing loaded a new air frame every one week into Position 1 on either assembly line in Everett.  Starting with LN 175, the time between loadings had grown to initially 9 and now about 11 days before a new air frame was loaded.

If this trend holds for the rest of March, then Boeing is effectively building 6 787/month out of Everett.  Along with 2 from Charleston, we then could see the total number of aircraft that starts final assembly in March dip to 8/month.  This would be a temporary dip in the rate but something that is not surprising given the trouble in Charleston. However it will allow Charleston time to get the the activities in 88-20 back on track and at rate.

Last month, Boeing delivered 4 787s, three to ANA. There has been a moderate uptick, in the 787 flight activity in the last few days. This includes ferrying Charleston built 787s for painting as well as continued production testing. In fact several Qatar aircraft have finally had their customer flights and appear to be ready for delivery. Kenya Airways 1st 787 is ready for its B-1 flight and I expect Air Canada 1st 787 to be ready for delivery before the end of this month.

This what I am expecting for deliveries in March:

Air India - 1

Qatar Airways - 2

United Airlines - 1

Japan Airlines - 2

ILFC - 2 (1 each to Aeromexico and Norwegian)

Hainan - 1

Royal Brunei - 1

Air Canada - 1

Kenya Airways - 1

This is a total of 12 for March but Boeing May be able to deliver 2 more air frames, one each to Qatar and LOT Polish.

787-9 flight testing continues a pace and I still expect that Boeing will finish all certification flight testing for this variant by May followed by formal FAA certification in June and 1st delivery to Air New Zealand in July. That aircraft is still in final assembly in Everett and should be rolled out sometime this week. ANA's first 787-9, ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) was rolled out of paint and I expect this aircraft to join the flight test program where it would do functionality and reliability testing. This could start as early as late March but April is more realistic time frame.

I expect the Air New Zealand airframe, ZB003 (LN 169, ZB-NZE) to be transferred over to the EMC where it will finish off travelled work as well as start the change incorporation process where changes mandated by the FAA certification will be made to bring the aircraft up to standard.  Boeing will need to have this aircraft ready in June if it hopes to deliver it in July.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators


 

Boeing delivers 4 787 in January but still plauged with problems in Charleston

Boeing delivered a total of 4 787s in January a decrease of 7 month over month from December's 11 deliveries.  I expected that the number was going to be lower due to the holidays in December which is a time that production usually takes a break company wide.  However, I was forecasting 8 deliveries some of which were just recently delivered aircraft in early February.  I was expecting that Qatar would have taken deliveries last month but apparently they are not ready to take possession.  Qatar has been notoriously picky in their inspections of the aircraft.  There are 4 that are complete at Charleston and outside on the flightline. 

So far in February, Boeing has delivered 3 .  Almost midway through the month of February, Boeing hasn't conducted too many B-1 flights of the aircraft that have rolled out of the final assembly buildings.  In fact Boeing has conducted only 3 first flights of production 787s.  Many of the 787s coming out of 40-24 or 40-26 went to the flightline or the EMC without paint.  This is to finish any traveled work that was left un done due to the issues in Charleston's mid-body assembly building.  While those tasks that went uncompleted in Charleston were probably finished during final assembly, that meant pushing other final assembly tasks to a time after the aircraft rolled out.  This is probably the work that went on the flightline and at the EMC.  Some of those planes have finished the traveled work and have been or are currently being painted.  So far it looks like the 787s that are rolling out needs to spend one more week to finish the traveled work at the EMC before releasing the aircraft to go to paint and subsequent pre-delivery ground and flight tests.  Boeing is continuing to move the mid-body fuselages through each of the assembly cells in 88-20 and then deliver them to Everett of Charleston's 88-30 building for final assembly regardless of the shape that they're in and the amount of work that is left to be done.  Boeing is more intent on maintaining rate of 10/month and the traveled work will be done after the airplanes have moved out of final assembly.  While this may be all well and good in the short term it could have long lasting impacts if the issues in 88-20 are not corrected quickly.  Deliveries could certainly fall behind and the FAA may inquire as to what exactly in going on in Charleston and why. 

The key things to watch for is if Boeing is still sending airplanes that had just been rolled out to paint, the flightline or the EMC.  If it is the later, then we need to see how long they spend at the EMC before going to paint and then on to the flightline.

Boeing is attributing the flow issues in Charleston's 88-20 mid-body assembly building to the introduction of the 787-9 as well as the increase in rate to 10/month. However, Boeing should have also attributed the chaos in 88-20 to the laying off of the contract workers in Charleston months earlier.  Workers that they are now hiring back to get the mid-body assembly back on track. 

Given Boeing's plans for Charleston especially with the planned rate increases in the coming years and if the rumors of the plant taking on all 787-10 assembly is true, then Boeing will need to have these contract workers around for a very long time to come.

Given the unpredictability of the issues that Boeing with the program especially with regards to the mid-body fuselage and the knock on effects that the traveled work has caused to downstream planning of testing and delivery activities, it is hard to predict how many 787s will be eventually delivered this month...and we're already near mid-month. 

This may crimp Boeing's plan to deliver 110 aircraft this year though it is still yet too early to arrive at that conclusion definitively.  Boeing is struggling to get dispatch reliability to over 99% and currently they are at over 98% which is good but not satisfactory to Boeing or the 787 operators.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators