Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Boeing meets 787 delivery guidance for 2014

With the delivery of the second 787 for Azerbaijan Airlines, Boeing had met their 787 delivery guidance of 110 for 2014.  The aircraft manufacturer isn't done and should be able to deliver 4 more 787s including 2 787-9s.  These aircraft all have had their first customer flights though there may be additional customer flights required and these should deliver starting early next week.

In a related note: Boeing pushed out the last 787 to be built in 2014.  The aircraft is for American Airlines and should deliver around March.

787 Full Production Table

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Boeing delivers first 787 to Avianca....finally

Update from my earlier post.   Avianca has finally taken possession of its first 787 yesterday.  The aircraft ZA665 (LN 217, N780AV) was reported at the Everett Delivery Center by sources. This indicates that the aircraft is due to depart from Everett soon.

This aircraft had a very long gestation period at Everett spending over 6 months from the start of final assembly to delivery at Everett.  It is suspected that there were seat issues but also financing issues that held up delivery.  Avianca is expected to take three more 787s before the end of the month.

Seats and Financing - hold ups to 787 deliveries in December

Boeing's aggressive 787 delivery schedule is being threatened by two issues: availability of BFE (buyer furnished equipment) namely the premium seats from Zodiac but more importantly the ability of certain airlines to fund the final payment to Boeing upon delivery.  Most of the aircraft's purchase price is paid upon delivery.  The seat issue has already shifted several deliveries into January.

For some carriers with less than stellar cashflow, obtaining the financing to fund this final payment has been tough.  In particular Avianca and Azerbaijan Airlines have had aircraft that are all set to deliver yet are still sitting on the flightlines at Everett and North Charleston.  The delivery dates have been repeatedly moved to the right and there hasn't been any further test flights nor any need for further test flights unless the delays take much longer at which point Boeing would have to fly a FCF (functional check flight) to make sure that the aircraft and it's systems still all check out.

Avianca has 4 787s on the flightline with 3 ready to be delivered.  Azerbaijan has both 787s that they ordered ready to be delivered as well.  The delays have been driven by the customers and not Boeing yet represents 6 aircraft that could be added to their year end and month end revenue totals.  Boeing is trying to keep the delivery schedule for these 6 airplanes in December and it does appear that they have time especially since the issues doesn't appear to be technical.

Monday, December 15, 2014

787 December Mid Month Report

It's already December 15th and thus far I can confirm that Boeing has delivered 5 787s thus far but I am waiting on confirmation on 3 additional deliveries to Avianca (2) and Azerbaijan Airlines (1) that are scheduled to be completed by the end of today.  With the 5 deliveries in December (thus far), Boeing has delivered 101 787s in 2014 and need 9 more to achieve their guidance of 110 deliveries.  They do have plenty of aircraft that appear to be ready to be handed over to customer as additional customer flights have taken place over the last few days.

the delayed deliveries of many of these aircraft have been attributable to different reasons including:

Delay seat deliveries from seat vendors (i.e. Zodiac) or delays in certifying the seats for installations Avianca, Etihad, American Air).  Bloomberg has an excellent article on the delays attributable to Zodiac

Financing issues (Azerbaijan Airlines).

Despite the trouble with deliveries, Boeing has still being going full tilt on production and my season adjusted calculations show that Boeing will start work on 8 787s in December while rolling out 9 from final assembly.

Lastly, the plane spotters in Abu Dhabi will get a special treat as Etihad's 1st 787-9 ZB077 (LN 229, A6-BLA) will fly to the country today, December 15th for a marketing trip.  It'll be there until the 18th and then fly back to Everett.  This aircraft still has not been delivered and has yet to take a customer flight though I don't know if the flight to Abu Dhabi wold count as a customer flight.  Boeing is still aiming to deliver this aircraft to Etihad on Dec. 31st.

787 Full Production Table

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Boeing falls short on November 787 deliveries, off to a slow start in December

Last month Boeing delivered an anemic number of 787s despite the growing backlog of aircraft at both Everett and North Charleston.  By the end of November, Boeing had delivered 96 787s for 2014 and needs to deliver a further 14 aircraft by the end of December in order to meet their goal of 110 787 deliveries for the year. The delays have pushed aircraft that were to be delivered in November to December yet almost 1/3 of the way through December Boeing has delivered only 1 787. 
According to the latest information (which changes more often than I can keep track), Boeing is looking to deliver 18 more 787s this month in addition to the 1 that has already been delivered to Air New Zealand.  I do believe that this number will eventually be trimmed down to 14 if not fewer.  Several aircraft have not had their B-1 flight as of yet despite having delivery dates later this month.  Several might also be pushed in January due to issues with customer supplied interiors and financing among other issues.  Other sources of delays maybe driven by weather conditions (B-1 flights have weather restrictions placed on them for safety sake) as well as the upcoming Holidays.  Boeing had delivered 15 787s in June of this year so it is entirely possible for them to crank out this number and I do think they can deliver 110 for the year but they do need to pick up the pace.  There are several 787s that were scheduled for delivery in December but those aircraft have already slipped into January, among them the first 787s for American Airlines and Scoot.
Among the candidates that expect deliveries this month are:
Aeromexico - 1
Air India - 1
ANA - 1
Avianca - 4 (787s that were delayed for yet unknown reasons but suspected to be interior furnishings)
Azerbaijan Airlines - 2 (rumored to have financing issues to complete the purchase, any one have any spare nickels and dimes to lend to them?)
Etihad - 1 (rumored to be delivered in January)
Japan Airlines - 2
Korean Air - 1 (terrible teen aircraft LN 11 for VIP transport but still needs to do a B-1)
Royal Air Maroc - 1 (still need to fly a B-1)
Thai - 1
TUI Travel (Arke) - 1
United Airlines - 1 (last 787-8 for UA)
Virgin Atlantic Airways - 1 (787-9, still needs to do a B-1)

A full year end review will be written up soon after the New Year followed by a 2015 Look Ahead.