Showing posts with label ZA261. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ZA261. Show all posts

Thursday, July 25, 2013

FAA issues AD for 787 ELTs plus 787 deliveries for July

Today the FAA is ordering carriers to either inspect or remove the ELTs on their 787 aircraft.  This is coming on news that AAIB investigators are narrowing the fire in the ELT to improper installation of the ELT and the associated lithium-manganese batteries which allowed the wires in the ELT to be pinched thus leading to a possible arcing event and igniting the fire.  Essentially, the 787 and its electrical system has been exonerated in this event and the issue maybe that of workmanship instead of design.

In related news,, Jim McNearny, speaking on the 2nd Quarter earning call said that Boeing is in discussions with Ethiopian on plans to repair the 787.  There was some question as to whether the aircraft would be repairable or would have to be written off.  This is the first indication that I know of that Boeing believes the damage to ZA261 is repairable.  Hopefully within a couple of weeks will know what Boeing's repair approach will be and how they will ensure that the repairs won't compromise the structural integrity of the aircraft.

As the July is coming to an end Boeing is making a push to deliver several 787s.  Thus far they have delivered 4 in July and should be able to deliver 4 more:

Ethiopian - 1
LOT - 1
Qatar -1
United Airlines - 1

For August, Boeing should be able to deliver at least 11 though I'm not including any deliveries to Air India, Hainan Airlines or China Southern.  Between these three airlines, there are 14 787s that are essentially ready to be delivered.  Assuming Boeing delivers 4 more 787s by the end of July, they will have 28 aircraft that are in pre-flight or in production test flights (excluding the 787-9 that is in the paint hangar). This means that Boeing can possibly deliver 14 787s from this current batch (not including the aforementioned carriers) however, some of these are scheduled for a September delivery.  I do think Boeing will be able to deliver 11 787s (barring any unknown issues):

ANA - 3
British Airways - 1
JAL -1
ILFC/Aeromexico - 1
ILFC/Norwegian - 1
LAN - 2
Qatar -1
TUI - 1

Again I'm not counting any deliveries from Air India, China Southern or Hainan as these carriers have been notoriously unreliable when it comes time for them to pick up their aircraft especially after they raised hell for the delays.

If, by some miracle, these airlines are able to take delivery, then we can see much higher total deliveries of around 15 to 16 for August.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 








Thursday, July 18, 2013

AAIB confirms fire on Ethiopian 787. Fire looks to originate from ELT

The AAIB is recommending inerting (turning off) the lithium-manganese powered ELTs and is recommending a safety review of the batteries that power the ELT. The AAIB says that the aircraft was plugged into external power but the aircraft itself was not powered up. 

This means that the Honeywell supplied ELT was the source of the fire which affected the composite structure and interior insulation as well as blackened and peeling the paint externally. There was damage to the composite structure. The firefighters tried using handheld halon extinguishers which were not effective then resorted to water hoses which put out the fire. The ELT was effectively destroyed and the AAIB also said that there we no other aircraft systems in the vicinity of the ELT "which, with the aircraft unpowered, contain stored energy capable of initiating a fire in the area of the heat damage." The AAIB is not certain if the combustion was initiated by a release of energy within the batteries or an external source such as an electrical short.

There are two recommendations:
1) The FAA orders the inerting of the Honeywell ELT until it can be fixed.
2) The FAA initiates a safety review of the lithium powered ELT in other aircraft types and mandate appropriate fixes.

Essentially this clears Boeing and the electrical architecture but it would be paramount to understanding the source of the combustion.  The Honeywell ELT is used in other aircraft types and have been certified for use in commercial aircraft since 2005. 

The AAIB also said that there typically isn't any fire detection or suppression equipment in the space where the fire took place and if it had occurred during flight could have posed a "significant safety concern and raise challenges for the cabin crew in tackling the resulting fire."  The firefighters had to rip down the ceiling panels and overhead luggage bins to access the area of the fire.

With inerting the ELTs, the risk of a fire is taken away. Boeing will still have to determine if they can economically repair ZA261 and return it to safe and normal service. This will be a major challenge for Boeing's engineers. You can read the full AAIB interim report:

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

AAIB to put out interim report on Ethiopian 787 incident within days; 787 production slowed in Everett

UPDATE: Jon Ostrower is reporting that the 1st 787-9 (ZB001, LN 126, N789EX) should be rolling out of 40-24 and into the paint hangar at around 11PM PT. Final assembly of this test flight aircraft took 48 days.

The UK's AAIB is expected to put out an interim report on the fire/heat event on board the Ethiopian 787 which occurred on July 12th.  Thus far investigator are looking at the aircraft's lithium-manganese powered emergency locator transmitter (ELT).  This piece of equipment is made by Honeywell and is considered an off the shelf item meaning that it was not designed exclusively for the787 but is probably used on other commercial aircraft models.  It is far from certain if the ELT is the cause or help feed the fire but investigators did find this piece of equipment virtually destroyed and the damaged to the carbon composite structure of the aircraft is in the area where the ELT is located.

In the meantime none of the airlines nor Boeing have stopped 787 operations and the carriers continue to fly their full schedule.

Boeing continues 787 production with the 2nd 787-9, ZB002 (LN133, N789FT) entering final assembly on July 12th in 40-24.  However an analysis of the 787-8s that have started final assembly reveal that the production rate has slowed at Everett. I'm not sure if it was due to the prolong grounding during the winter-early spring, the re-configuration of the main final assembly hall in 40-26 or a combination of both.  Looking at the production table, Boeing loaded ZA563 (LN 127) on June 26th after the reconfiguration and construction in 40-26 but the next two 787-8 that entered into final assembly was LN 128 (6 days later on July 2), LN 130 (14 days later after LN 128) and LN 131 is due to enter assembly 10 days later after LN 130.  To keep up the 5/month rate in Everett Boeing has to be loading one 787 into position 1 every 6 days.  It may be that they are re-ramping up to that rate after the construction but we would have to see.

The situation in Charleston may be similar.  The Post and Courier revealed that the Charleston line is producing at 1.5/month and will not get to 3/month until sometime in the 1st quarter of 2014 but that Boeing still plans to have 787 production at 10/month by the end of this year.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 








Saturday, July 13, 2013

AAIB: Batteries did not cause Ethiopian 787 Event

The UK's Air Accident Investigation Branch sent out a press release essentially exonerating the 787 lithium ion batteries in the smoke/heat/fire incident at Heathrow yesterday.  The aircraft was pulled into a remote hangar where investigators will try and understand what happened and why.

Thus far there has been a lot of speculation but we do know that there was smoke throughout the cabin and heat damage in the rear crown area.  The Ethiopian Dreamliner was not equipped with a crew rest area nor where there air conditioning pack in the area of the fire.  There has been speculation that this fire may have been intentionally set and even though the chances are highly remote it has not been discounted.

I do think that the AAIB along with the NTSB and FAA should be able to get to the how and why within a few weeks.  In  the meantime, 787 customers including Ethiopian continue to operate the 787 and Boeing continues production and flight testing.

Here is the text of the AAIB's July 13th press release:

Date: 13 July 2013



Serious Incident to Boeing 787-8, ET-AOP,


at London Heathrow Airport on 12 July 2013

 
 Date & Time: 12 July 2013 at approx 1550 hrs UTC

Location: London Heathrow Airport
Aircraft Type: Boeing 787-8
Operator: Ethiopian Airlines
At approximately 1550 hrs UTC on 12 July 2013 a Boeing 787-8 of Ethiopian Airlines, registration ET-AOP, suffered an event at London Heathrow whilst the aircraft was parked on stand, with no persons on board. The initial witness and physical evidence shows that this event resulted in smoke throughout the fuselage and extensive heat damage in the upper portion of the rear fuselage.

In exercise of his powers the Chief Inspector of the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) has ordered that an investigation into this serious incident be carried out, in accordance with the Civil Aviation (Investigation of Air Accidents and Incidents) Regulations 1996 and the Standards and Recommended Practices of Annex 13 of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). The sole objective of the investigation is to determine the causal and contributory factors of this serious incident, with the intention of preventing a recurrence. It is not the purpose to apportion blame or liability.

In accordance with these international standards and recommended practices, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), USA, representing the State of Design and Manufacture, and the Civil Aviation Authority of Ethiopia, representing the State of Registry and Operator, have been invited to appoint Accredited Representatives to participate in the investigation, along with advisors from the Federal Aviation Administration, Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Ethiopian Airlines. The AAIB has also invited the participation of the EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) and the UK CAA (Civil Aviation Authority) as advisors to the investigation.

This team, under the direction of the AAIB, has initiated the technical investigation into the event. The aircraft is currently located in a hangar at London Heathrow. There has been extensive heat damage in the upper portion of the rear fuselage, a complex part of the aircraft, and the initial investigation is likely to take several days. However, it is clear that this heat damage is remote from the area in which the aircraft main and APU (Auxiliary Power Unit) batteries are located, and, at this stage, there is no evidence of a direct causal relationship.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Ethiopian 787 fire update

UPDATE: saw this on avherald.com if true then Boeing may have caught a break:

The aircraft fire is unrelated to the batteries. This will be confirmed tomorrow in a boeing press conference. Fire is strongly believed to be as a result of galley overheat - failure of coffee heater trip switch which was left on.Burnt out much of the galley and area above causing deep damage to aft bh and rudder/elevator system. Aircraft sadly a write off - unless pride of hull loss/p.r dictates repair even if economically un-viable."

Thus far there is still no word on what may have sparked the fire on ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) but investigators from the UK's AAIB (Air Accident Investigation Branch) with NTSB and FAA personnel to support (along with Boeing) are enroute to London to begin the formal investigation into the fire.

The events in London, this afternoon, has not had an effect of 787 operations around the world.  Indeed, airlines continue to operate the aircraft in revenue service but are keeping a close eye on event at Heathrow.

Boeing continue production testing of the 787s at Everett with two flights today: ZA468 (LN 116, A7-BCG) and ZA186 (LN 105, JA832J).  I'll update the blog as more information becomes available.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 








Ethiopian 787 catches fire at Heathrow

This is breaking right now so much of this information can change but an Ethiopian 787 parked at a remote stand at London's Heathrow International Airport caught fire. The Heathrow fire brigade responded and the fire appear to be out.

Pictures from the scene show damage to the top of the fuselage just forward of the tail. The cargo doors were closed but passenger doors on both sides (doors 3 & 4) are opened. This area may be the aft galley of the aircraft and not near the APU lithium ion battery.

This fire does not appear to be related to the lithium ion batteries given the location.  This particular aircraft is ZA261 (LN44, ET-AOP) and was delivered to Ethiopian on Nov. 20, 2012.

The flight arrived around 6:30 AM London time and was parked at a remote stand as it's return flight to Ethiopia was not due to leave until 9:00PM. The fire occurred at about 5:15PM, almost 4 hours before departure. At that time the aircraft should be empty and completely powered down. Again it is too early to say what happened but I am leaning towards this NOT being a battery fire but perhaps some device in the galley being left on. The investigation will determine the final cause.

As to repair and return to service of this particular aircraft, that will be determined by the airline with Boeing's help. It all depends on the extent of the damage to the fuselage. 


Monday, October 22, 2012

6 787s fly for the first time in 5 days

From Oct. 18 to Oct. 22 inclusive, Boeing took advantage of a break in the weather to fly 6 different production 787s on their B-1 flights.  The aircraft were obviously ready but bad weather forced a hold on all B-1 flights. Thus when the break came Boeing released the planes for flight.  However because of the delay, I expect that none of these airplanes will be able to be delivered by the end of the month.  It does potentially set up November as a big month for deliveries but there may be a knock on efffect as 787s that were scheduled for flights around this time will be pushed back to later this month and certainly into early November.

10/18/2012
ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) - LOT Polish Airlines

10/20/2012
ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728) - Hainan Airlines
ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) - United Airlines

10/21/2012
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - Air India

10/22/2012
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - Ethiopian Airways
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - Qatar Airways

In addition to the increase B-1 flights, there was a very noticable increase in follow on flights of other airframes that have already flown.  There included a C-1 flight for ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) which is expected to be delivered to Air India before the end of the month, hopefully). 

Given the increased activity, however, I do not expect a lot of deliveries in the next 8 days.  There are really 3 airplanes that are ready for delivery or will be ready for delivery.  There is a possibility of one more airplane that could be delivered this month but it only has an outside chance.

Ready or almost ready for delivery:

ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB) - LAN
ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS) - Ethiopian
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - Air India (only had one C-1 flight may need more)

The one airframe that might make it for delivery by the end of this month is:

ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) - ANA

The last aircraft still needs to perform customer flights and I am not sure if it has completed all the Boeing test flights at this point even though it has flown twice.

It is apparent that if Boeing can maintain an aggressive flying schedule in November, they can have a lot delivieries in that month.  Much depends on the aircraft condition after completing final assembly/change incorporation as well as weather and the ability to work through the backlog of planes that are finished and need to go through testing.








Friday, October 19, 2012

Several 787s getting set for 1st flight

Boeing seems to be ready to fly several 787s on their first flights as well as continue flight testing several more in preparation for delivery.  As of today Boeing has delivered 29 planes to 7 worldwide customers.

There have been several Flightaware alerts for several 787s that are sitting at Everett and Charleston.

Yesterday there were several Flightaware alerts for several 787 B-1 flights.  Those that were  slated to fly were ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) for Qatar Airways, ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) for LOT Polish Airlines, ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) for United Airlines. However by the end of the day only ZA270 flew while the other two conducted taxi tests around Everett.  Today there were Flightaware alerts for 2 B-1 flights: ZA430 (LN 73. B-2728) for Hainan Airlines and ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) for Air India, the later being the third Charleston built 787 which should deliver sometime around November.  As of now these 787s have not flown and have probably ran taxi tests around their respective airfields. I also expect that ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) for Ethiopian should also take flight by sometime next week from Everett.  This is an indication that Boeing is trying to aggressively ramp up the delivery process once the airplanes have left the EMC or the assembly line.  I would expect that within the next couple of day that all these airplanes will fly as well as continued flight test activity from the airplanes that have already flown in preparation for delivery.  The big factor nowadays is the weather around Washington State which is keeping the airplanes grounded (today for instance).

Meanwhile production and re-work continues at a pretty good pace with ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) for LAN and ZA289 (LN 55, N26905) for United Airlines both entering the paint hangars at Everett. Assembly continues to pace at a little over 4/month.  New airframes are being loaded in Everett at about 1 every week with the next one slated to load on Oct. 25.  There are currently two 787s that are ready for delivery one for LAN (ZA537, LN 74, CC-BBB) and one for Ethiopian (ZA264, LN 75, ET-AOS).








Saturday, September 29, 2012

787 production update

Not much has changed in the last few weeks.  Boeing seems to working the change incorporation program in reverse numerical order with airplanes 10 to 19 seemingly slated to be be the last batch to go through the EMC.

Boeing did get one 787 (for Ethiopian) done with change incorporation but that aircraft, ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP), is now back at the EMC. Over the last couple of days, media reports said that there is a second 787 that had a cracked fan mid-shaft. I believe that this Ethiopian Dreamliner is that aircraft and is back at the EMC to have a replacement engine fitted.  Once this airplane has cleared out I expect that ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern will take its place to begin change incorporation.

Boeing did move ZA260 (LN 39, ET-AOO) to the EMC to start the change incorporation process in the meantime. Also a litle interesting is that two airplanes on the final assembly line seemed to have switched places.  ZA432 (LN 79) for Hainan Airlines and ZA271 (LN 78) for LOT Polish Airlines were in positions 3 and 4 respectively in building 40-26.  Now they seemed to have reversed positions.  The only reason I can think of is that Boeing may not have space and wanted to complete work on the Hainan Dreamliner before rolling both airplanes out to the flightline to start pre-flight.  Currently in 40-26 there are 4 airplanes occupying all four assembly positions as well as one 787 in 40-24 occupying the first assembly position on the surge line in that building. I do expect to see a line move early next week.

Lastly, I can't confirm if any more 787s have been delivered in the last couple of days but evidence does point to Air India taking delivery either tomorrow (Sunday, Sept. 30) or Monday (Oct. 1) of ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) which is the 1st 787 built by the Boeing Charleston team.  Rumor has it that Jim McNerney will be there to celebrate the first 787 (really the first Boeing commercial airplane) built outside of the Puget Sound region.  It will be more of a celebration of that fact rather than a celebration of Air India receiving another 787.  A second Charleston built 787 left this afternoon for Ft. Worth to be painted joining an Everett built 787 for Ethiopian already there. I expect the Ethiopian Dremaliner to fly back in the next 2-3 days and the Air India 787 to return to Charleston in the next 10-14 days.








Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Another 787 pushed out, airplane 66 out the door

Boeing has pushed out ZA135 (LN 66) from build 40-26.  This is supposed to be the first airplane that goes from assembly line to flightline.  Currently it is parked on the 40-51 (building) apron west.  I don't know if it has its engines attached or not but hopefully a spotter would be able to get photos of it to determine if it engineless and buttoned up like other 787s that have to go through the change incorporation process or if the windows and doors are uncovered and the airplane has its engines hanging off the wings.  If, as expected, this airplane has its engines then it should be ready to go to paint/aqueous wash followed by ground and flight testing prior to delivery to ANA.
We have to wait and see but this information is current as of today. 

Additionally there are 3 787s in 40-24 undergoing change incorporation.  These airplanes are ZA175 (LN 20) for JAL, ZA261 (LN 44) for Ethiopian and ZA287 (LN 52) for United.

No word on upcoming deliveries in June as of yet.

Monday, July 11, 2011

787/747 Update

Boeing continues to make steady progress towards the 787's delivery target schedule for sometime next month or the month after. ZA102 (LN9) has already flow about 86.25 hours of the approximately 300 hours needed to to complete F&R/ETOPs testing as of July 10th. Currently the airplane is in Hawaii for tests and will be returning to Paine Field today.

ZA002 has just completed SROV testing in Japan with final testing between Tokyo and Nagoya. From all indications, the testing went very well and the production aircraft will be service ready when they start reaching customers. Here's a recap of ZA002 schedule from the past week in Japan:

Flight 1 LV. SEA 7-3-11 5AM ARR. HND 7-4-11 6:30AM
Flight 2 LV. HND 7-5-11 6:30AM ARR. ITM 7-5-11 7:30AM
Flight 3 LV. ITM 7-5-11 11:30AM ARR. HND 7-5-11 12:30AM
Flight 4 LV. HND 7-6-11 6:30AM ARR. KIX 7-6-11 8:00AM
Flight 5 LV. KIX 7-6-11 12:00PM ARR. HND 7-6-11 1:30PM
Flight 6 LV. HND 7-7-11 6:00AM ARR. OKJ 7-7-11 7:30AM
Flight 7 LV. OKJ 7-7-11 11:00AM ARR. HND 7-7-11 12:30PM
Flight 8 LV. HND 7-7-11 3:00PM ARR. HIJ 7-7-11 5:00PM
Flight 9 LV. HIJ 7-7-11 7:00PM ARR. HND 7-7-22 8:30PM
Flight 10 LV. HND 7-10-11 6:25AM ARR. NGO 7-10-11 7:30AM
Flight 11 LV. NGO 7-10-11 6:00PM ARR. HND 7-10-11 6:45PM

When ANA starts revenue service with the 787, the destination will either be Okayama or Hiroshima from its base at Haneda International Airport in Tokyo.

Next stop for ZA002 is India where it will fly be shown to customers Air India and Jet Airways. Air India is expecting it's first 787 in December of this year while Jet Airways will receive its first airplane sometime in 2014. ZA002 will fly from Haneda in Tokyo to Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi and then on to Mumbai. From there it is not known if ZA002 will fly back to Seattle or will fly on to other destination for other visits with customer airlines.

The 787 test fleet continues to fly occasional Boeing test flights with ZA001, ZA003 and ZA005 taking flights over the past week or so.

Production continues at Everett at a rate of two 787s per month. Boeing will starting final assembly on ZA261 (LN44) for Ethiopian Airlines on July 20th but more importantly, the first 787 to be assembled in North Charleston, SC will start final assembly on August 17th. That airplane ZA286 (LN46) for United Airlines already has its wings delivered to the final assembly hall and will be waiting for the forward fuselage from Wichita as well as the center and rear section just next door to the final assembly hall. the horizontal tail plane form Grottaglie, Italy as well as the numerous other parts (tail fin from from Washington State and landing gear) are expected to be delivered soon. Boeing is expected to increase production from 2/month to 2.5/month though it is still unclear when this increase is supposed to happen. The current schedule doesn't show assembly start dates past airplane number 46 which indicates that Boeing is currently reviewing plans for future assembly start dates and thus reviewing the ramp up to the 2.5 rate.

Meanwhile Boeing has added a third 747-8I to the flight test program. The aircraft, RC003/N5020K will be used to perform high intensity radio frequency tests. It is in Southern California currently. The 747-8F F&R testing has continued but RC523 has not carried out any test flights recently. Boeing is very close to finishing off the 747-8F test program and anticipates delivering the first 747-8F to Cargolux this summer.