June 20, 2012 - Busy day for 787 program

There was a lot going on today with the 787 program.  First, Qatar first 787, ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) made an appearance on the flightline fully painted.  Matt Cawby got a very nice picture of it. This aircraft was parked in stall 107 which had been occupied by ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) for Air India.  This air frame was moved to the Fuel Dock until spot opens up when one of the ANA 787s fly away in the next two days.  Speaking of ANA 787s, they're been newsworthy.  First it was revealed to Reuters that the dimmable windows are not dark enough.  Why they're raising this question now instead of when PPG was developing them for the 787 is not known.  Apparently the shades are letting in enough light so that the customers can't sleep.  I don't know if there is a remedy to ANA's concerns but the aircraft nonetheless is performing extremely well in passenger service.  Japan Airlines has not complained about the windows and they're flying the aircraft on several long haul routes. However the issue will not slow down deliveries of the aircraft to ANA.  Today ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) took its B-1 flight in preparation to being delivered. I expect that this airplane should deliver next month.  Finally it is still expected that ANA will take delivery of ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) today though I am awaiting confirmation of this.

Two ANA 787s to deliver later this week

I just got word that ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) will deliver tomorrow to ANA with fly away on the 21st (Thursday).  ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A) will deliver on the 21st and fly away on the 22nd (Friday).

787 Deliveries to take place soon

According to a post on a forum on Airliners.net, ANA should be taking delivery of 2 787s. ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) will deliver tomorrow June 18 and ZA507 (LN48, JA810A) will deliver on June 19.  Additionally ZA509 (LN56, JA812A) will deliver on June 28th according to the post.  In terms of the Air India deliveries, that is still to be determined.  It seems that the GoI has not given the go ahead as of yet on the deal between Air India and Boeing.  If approval comes this week then I can see deliveries starting very soon thereafter.

July deliveries

The post also said that ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) and ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) will be delivered around July 31 and July 11 respectively and it may be possible for ZA135 (LN 66, JA813A) to be delivered during this month as well, this aircraft is still undergoing final assembly tasks on the apron.  Qatar Airways, it seems may not take delivery this month but that Boeing will conduct its first flight and then send it to Farnborough under Boeing control and ownership after which Boeing will complete all necessary pre-delivery operations prior to handing the aircraft over to Qatar Airways.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see further handover of aircraft to JAL and Air India in July.

Finally, I expect a line move late this week, around Friday the 22nd which should push out the first 787 for LAN, this is ZA536 (LN 68).

June 12, 2012 787 delivery watch and other 787 news

UPDATE (6/12/12, 8:45 PM):  There will be a line move tomorrow but on top of that there was some movement of several Qatar Airways 787s.

ZA118 (LN 67) will go straight from 40-26 to the paint hangar 45-01.  Sounds like there aren't very many jobs to do on this one and can go to preflight. 
ZA461 (LN 58) has gone from Stall 106 to the paint hangar 45-04 sounds like we'll finally see a 787 in Qatar Airways color scheme.
ZA460 (LN 57) went to EMC position Z
ZA511 (LN 63) went to EMC position 3
ZA463 (LN 64) went to EMC position E replacing ZA100 (LN 7)
ZA100 (LN 7) went to paint hangar 45-03 for painting seems this one is done

Lots of news out today.

ZA509 flies

ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) flew for the first time this afternoon. This is the first 787 to conduct a a B-1 flight in over three weeks.  Boeing had filed numerous flight plans over the past few days but it finally took off this afternoon. If there aren't too many issues then it should deliver by the end of this month.  it is still unknown why it has taken so long between B-1 flights for the787 and why ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) and ZA509 (LN 48, JA810A) have not been delivered to ANA.  ZA506 did have an experimental sticker and an N registration on it but those have since been removed.  I can speculate that this airplane conducted some certification activities, possibly connected to software upgrades, and Boeing is waiting on final FAA approval before signing the airplanes over to ANA.  The fact that ZA509 finally took flight might be an encouraging sign that is approval is close or already in hand.

United to take 787 delivery in September

Jeff Smisek, the CEO of United said today at a shareholder meeting that the airline will take delivery of the first Dreamliner in September and will have 5 to 6 787s by the end of the year.  Currently there are 5 787s that are assembled and two of the five that are currently undergoing change incorporation.  ZA290 (LN 77) will be assembled in Everett and I expect that this airplane will enter final assembly sometime around early September.  Boeing can certainly deliver all these 787s to UAL by the end of the year as they probably don't have much change incorporation to be done.

Air India

The word is the the GoI will take up the compensation agreement between Air India and Boeing this week and that first delivery should take place next week.  Though this is India and they do love their little drama so I'm not going to believe it until all three 787s, ZA 233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) and ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI), are all on Indian soil.

Qatar Airways

Of all the 787 that would make a lot of noise I was expecting Qatar Airways, not Air India but some how Air India was able to supplant Akbar Al-Baker as the most annoying (and most dislike) customer in the airline industry.  I know I'm comparing an individual with a company but you get the idea.  Anyway we've heard not a peep from one of the most vocal airlines in the world.  I did get word that delivery of Qatar's first 787 should take place by the end of the month.  Further I got confirmation of the following piece of information that was in a Qatar Airways press release:
The Doha-based airline is preparing to take delivery of five 787s during 2012, with the first set to arrive in Qatar this summer.

The carrier will initially operate the aircraft on intra-Gulf routes to provide flight crew with training hours before Qatar Airways’ 787 is scheduled to appear on static display at the Farnborough Air Show in July and then enter its first long-haul commercial service on the Doha – London Heathrow route.

If so then Boeing will need to deliver Qatar's first 787 by the end of this month if it is to conduct inter-Gulf flights for a week and then go to Farnborough for the air show which starts July 9th.  It is entirely possible that the airline can take delivery by the end of the first week of July and then fly it to Farnborough for the show.  I say this because as of today the plane is still in a flightline stall and there is still work being done on the aircraft and has yet to run its engines for the first time let alone make a B-1 flight.  If ZA461 (LN 58) isn't on the ramp at Farnborough a 777-300ER would be in its place) then you can expect U-Turn Al to be back to his normally bombastic self thus regaining his title over Air India.

Production

I expect there to be another line move if not today then by Thursday at the latest.  LN 67 should be pushed out and should be in a similar condition as LN 66.  This airplane is also for ANA and should most certainly deliver next month.  Related to production, Flightglobal writer Steven Trimble came out with an article saying that Boeing is pushing the activation of the surge line to the end of September, ostensibly the start of the 4th quarter.  The reason being is that Boeing wants to use the line for chane incorporation for the 39 787s that are out on the Everett ramp.  According to Trimble the line is completely ready to support production of the 787s but Boeing wants to use it for change incorporation during the summer.  This may make sense as it have two positive effects...1) it allows Boeing to work through the 39 planes that are still need to be finished that more faster thus reducing inventory on the balance sheet and boking revenues on the income statement and 2) it allows Boeing to refine and double check it plans for the surge line and for the rate increase to 5/month that will come this fall.  Boeing and its supplies cannot fail on this rate increase and must make sure that it occurs seamlessly across the supply chain.  I wouldn't be surprised if some of the 787s that are currently in final assembly are moved to the surge line to finish off some of the minor assembly tasks.

787-9/787-10

Jim Albaugh speaking yesterday said that the 787-10 would be launched before a 777X as it is the derivative that is the most further along.  According to Scott Hamilton who cites a Bernstein Research note, the 787-10 launch is almost a certainty.  The 787-9 development is proceeding well and will go into production on the surge line next year. 

The same Bernstein Research note also raised Boeing outlook based on improvement in the 787 program and in particular the production.  It cites supplier performance as a huge factor in the improved production outlook.  See the Reuters article that talks about the Bernstein note here.

Performance of ANA 787s

Word is coming out that the performance of ANA 787s on long haul flights is 21% better compared to the 767-300ER that they're replacing.  This is compared to the 20% that Boeing was aiming for when they started marketing the 787 to the airlines. These are the overweight aircraft that are equipped with the Trent 1000 package "B" engines that have SFC bought to within 1% of Rolls Royce's performance guarantees.  One can only imagine what the performance will be like on the later 787s which are delivered at the promise weight (Boeing is getting there) along with the improved engines coming out from both GE (PIP2) and Rolls Royce (package "C").

Air India and Boeing come to an agreement

Media outlets in of India are reporting that Air India and Boeing have come to an agreement over the 787 delays.  Those reports did not specify the form of compensation though it may involve Air India paying less for each 787 as they are delivered.  The agreement has to be approved by the Government of India so that is a reason to be cautious of this agreement.  It was the Government of India that insisted on more compensation than had been previously agreed with Boeing.

If approval is given, Air India will take delivery of three 787s: ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH), ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) all in June.  ZA233 is already to go now and I suspect that ZA236 is not that far behind.  ZA237 is being painted and has still go through a few more Boeing test flights as well customer tests before it is delivered by the end of this month.

If the approval is given, Boeing can potentially deliver 8 787s this month.  4 787s to ANA that are on the flightline right now: ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A), ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A), ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A), ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A).  Additionally Boeing can deliver ZA461 (LN 58) to Qatar Airways this month.  This would make 8 airplanes including the three for Air India.  ZA135 (LN 66) is an unknown but should be ready for delivery if not by the end of June then certainly in early to mid July.

Boeing readies more ANA 787s but AI planes are in limbo

Where to begin as there's a lot of new stuff.

First let's take a look at the positives.  Boeing has 4 787s being readied at Everett for ANA.  These are ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A), ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A), ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A), and ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A).  ZA 508 is currently in the paint hangar but this plane had spent some time at EMC so I do believe that it is getting its aqueous wash and paint job done before being pulled to the fuel dock for fueling tests then to the flightline for mini gauntlet, engine start and first flight.  Thus Boeing will have 4 787s ready for ANA in June maybe more.  There has been a line move and currently the 4 787s that are inside 40-26 are ZA135 (LN 66, position 4), ZA118 (LN 67, position 3), ZA536 (LN 68, position 2) and ZA119 (LN 69, position 1).  All but ZA536 are for ANA with ZA536 going to LAN.  It is conceivable but not certain that ZA135 can go straight to paint and flightline with its engines and start preparation for delivery in about 2 weeks and can possibly be delivered at the end of June.  This will be a major milestone for Boeing when it happens. Also ZA461 (LN 58) has made an appearance at the Everett Fuel Dock and I believe that this airplane is being prepared for delivery.  I expect it will go into the paint hangar shortly before re-emerging for pre-delivery tests and final delivery to Qatar Airways in June and on display at Farnborough in July. Lastly, ZA237 (LN 46) has filed a flight plan fro Charleston to Fort Worth so this airplane can be painted for Air India.  It is currently still in Charleston delayed by weather in the Dallas area.  This last point is a nice lead into....

The Negatives

Only one (HUGE) negative which Air India. and here I just don't know where to start my rant.  I (and probably 99.9% of of the world) thought that the issue of compensation to Air India for the delays was settled.  According to the Govt. of India it is not and thus Boeing may have a dozen 787s for Air India sitting on the ramps at Everett and Charleston waiting to be delivered.  The Air India debacle is a case study on how not to run an airline particularly when you are government owned and you have bureaucrats who know nothing of the airline industry making key decisions.  ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) is all ready to be delivered and I suspect so is ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH).  How long it will take to complete the negotiations on compensation is anyone's guess but this is Air India attempting to have Boeing pay for the decisions made by the carrier mistakes once again.  The pilots strike over who flies the Dreamliner is also bleeding the carrier so they need money and they're going to Boeing for that money. This saga won't end until Boeing has delivered the 27th and final 787 to Air India and washes their hands of them.

May 2012 787 Deliveries

I just got information from a source that Boeing MAY only deliver just 1 787 which will be ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) for Air India.  Given that the other two 787s (ZA506, LN 47, JA809A and ZA507, LN48, JA810A) that are on the flight line have not even flown there may be a lot of truth to this though they can still be delivered if Boeing conducts company and customer test flight over the next 3 weeks.  I am not sure for the delay but it does appear that Boeing may be setting for quite a few deliveries in June.  There has been speculation of which 787s that are in Boeing's EMC.  I've gotten some of that information and it does appear that the following ANA 787s are inside the EMC: ZA100 (LN7), ZA508 (LN 51), and ZA509 (LN 56).  Additionally there is a JAL 787 most likely ZA178 (LN 27).  There is another 787 which may be for either United or Qatar.

2 more JAL 787s to deliver tomorrow

Boeing is set for another 787 double delivery to customer Japan Airlines.  This time two more late built 787s will be delivered on April 25th.  Fly away to Japan is expected around the 26th or 27th, in time for JAL to start 787 service to Moscow and Delhi in May.  Japan Airlines is expecting to have 10 787s in its fleet by March 31, 2013.  There are still 3 more JAL 787s at Everett that have yet to finish change incorporation.  The two 787s that will be delivered are ZA180 (LN 37, JA826J) and ZA181 (LN38, JA827J).

Boeing is preparing ZA506 (LN47, JA809A) for delivery to ANA.  This is probably not going to happen until May with it's first flight sometime in the first two weeks of May.  This will be ANA's 8th 787. Again Boeing is still clearing out the late and very late built aircraft but clearing out the first 23 787s built has been very slow (LN7 - LN29)

Additionally, it's expected that Boeing will finally deliver Air India's first Dreamliner though the first one ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) is still in San Antonio.  It's sister, ZA233 (LN29, VT-AND) has been flying around San Antonio and may be flying to Paine Field right now.  This airplane will still need to have its interior installed when it gets back to Everett so it won't be ready for delivery until late May at the earliest.

Finally on Friday Boeing will roll out the first 787 to be built at Boeing Charleston.  This airplane, ZA237 (LN46) is destined for Air India and should be delivered around June.  Given that this is the first 787 to be built at Charleston, Boeing will probably take its time doing the needed gauntlet testing before conducting its first flight.  Boeing will then send the plane to Amarillo, Texas where Leading Edge Aviation Services is contracted to paint the Charleston built Dreamliners.  Boeing Charleston doesn't have a paint hangar unlike Everett but I can see that changing with Boeing's acquisition of more land near the plant.  The airplanes will then be flown back to Charleston where the interiors will be fitted and further Boeing and customer test flights will be completed.