With many of the 787s that are in pre-delivery having gone through their first (B-1) flights. I am going to take a moment and speculate on delivery dates for these airplanes. These are my own assumptions assuming that these aircraft will have to fly the minimal number of acceptance flights. For now I'm assuming that these planes will deliver between 21 and 24 days after each B-1 flight though there are exceptions (as in Air India, Chinese carriers, and LOT). This also assumes that there aren't any issues that would need to be corrected and re-tested in subsequent test flights prior to delivery.
Here's my projected delivery dates for this month:
ZA289 (LN 55, N45905) United Airlines - 12/12/12 - 12/15/12
ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCK) Qatar Airways - 12/15/12 - 12/18/12
ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) Qatar Airways - 12/24/12 - 12/27/12
ZA510 (LN 59, JA817A) ANA - 12/26/12 - 12/29/12
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) ANA - 12/27/12 - 12/30/12
ZA287 (LN 52, N27903) United Airlines - 12/28/12 - 12/31/12
ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) JAL - 12/28/12 - 12/31/12
Again this is my own speculation but it's based on previous and recent deliveries of the 787. These dates are always in flux and can change easily so I trust the reader will not hold me responsible if all the actual delivery dates turn out to be something totally different.
Lastly, these numbers could change as Boeing can deliver 787s to Air India (2), China Southern (1) and even LOT Polish (1). Boeing is making a huge effort to try and delivery these aircraft within the next 24 days and the way we can accurately tell is the flight activity of each of these airplanes over the next 2-3 weeks.
Lastly, the pilots union at American Airlines has ratified the new labor agreement with AMR today. This could be significant for 787-9 order that AA intends to finalize with Boeing as the order is dependent on AMR agreeing to a new contract with their pilots. Now this was all before AMR entered Chapter 11 so the bankruptcy judge and AMR's creditors may have something to say about this order and whether it can proceed. Additionally, a report emerged this evening that US Airways had submitted a bid for American in November. What effect an AMR-US Airways merger would have on the MoU for the 42 787-9 American intends to finalize is unclear though US Airways does have an outstanding order for 18 A350-800 and 4 A350-900 by Airbus. Boeing can deliver the 787-9 to American starting in 2014 (theoretically) which is much earlier than US Airways can get either variant of the A350 that they have ordered. Also a combined company may be opened to operating a mixed Boeing-Airbus fleet as with Delta/Northwest and United/Continental. A US Airways/American tie up would retain the American name.
Showing posts with label ZA464. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ZA464. Show all posts
Friday, December 7, 2012
Boeing conducts 6 new 787 first flights in one week.
UPDATE (6:38PM): Looks like Boeing has delivered LAN's 3rd 787 today. Flightware shows a 787 delivery flight leaving Everett at 5:10PM local time for Santiago, Chile.
Boeing is quickening the pace of flying production 787s on their first flight. Starting on Dec. 1, Boeing has sent up 6 different 787s for their first flight, otherwise known as the B-1 flight. It appears that Boeing is aggressively trying to ramp up deliveries of these airplanes before the end of the year. In addition to these 6 airplanes making their first flight, several others have had follow on test flights either by Boeing or customer pilots on several other 787s.
The planes that flew were as follows:
12/1/12
ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) for LOT Polish Airlines
12/3/12
ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) for Qatar Airways
12/4/12
ZA510 (LN 59, JA817J) for ANA
12/6/12
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) for ANA
12/7/12
ZA287 (LN 52, N27903) for United Airlines
ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) for Japan Airlines
Obviously not all of these will be delivered this month, most notably ZA271 but I do still believe Boeing can deliver 8 787s this month possibly going to 10 if Air India sorts out its financial mess.
Given this pace, I can see Boeing delivering a couple airplanes next week but the bulk of deliveries should come around the week of December 17th. The plan would be for Boeing to fly more test flights next week in preparation for delivery the following week (week of Dec. 17th). Boeing will be mostly closed during the week of Christmas but not fully shut down so we can certainly still see a couple of deliveries during the week of Dec. 24th depending on customer availability and needs.
I have made changes to the notes of some of the airplanes in the table. Notably I am tracking the number of tests flights that each airplane takes during pre-delivery. After delivery I note which order it was delivered to that particular customer (i.e. ANA #1 meaning the first airplane delivered to ANA, etc.).
Boeing is quickening the pace of flying production 787s on their first flight. Starting on Dec. 1, Boeing has sent up 6 different 787s for their first flight, otherwise known as the B-1 flight. It appears that Boeing is aggressively trying to ramp up deliveries of these airplanes before the end of the year. In addition to these 6 airplanes making their first flight, several others have had follow on test flights either by Boeing or customer pilots on several other 787s.
The planes that flew were as follows:
12/1/12
ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) for LOT Polish Airlines
12/3/12
ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) for Qatar Airways
12/4/12
ZA510 (LN 59, JA817J) for ANA
12/6/12
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) for ANA
12/7/12
ZA287 (LN 52, N27903) for United Airlines
ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) for Japan Airlines
Obviously not all of these will be delivered this month, most notably ZA271 but I do still believe Boeing can deliver 8 787s this month possibly going to 10 if Air India sorts out its financial mess.
Given this pace, I can see Boeing delivering a couple airplanes next week but the bulk of deliveries should come around the week of December 17th. The plan would be for Boeing to fly more test flights next week in preparation for delivery the following week (week of Dec. 17th). Boeing will be mostly closed during the week of Christmas but not fully shut down so we can certainly still see a couple of deliveries during the week of Dec. 24th depending on customer availability and needs.
I have made changes to the notes of some of the airplanes in the table. Notably I am tracking the number of tests flights that each airplane takes during pre-delivery. After delivery I note which order it was delivered to that particular customer (i.e. ANA #1 meaning the first airplane delivered to ANA, etc.).
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
787 flight activity picking up. Is Boeing preparing to give a big Xmas present?
Boeing may be getting set to give AvGeeks and their shareholders a big Xmas gift in the form of several 787 deliveries before the end of the year.
There has a been a noticeable uptick in 787 flight activity both at Everett and Charleston since the first of the month. In the first four days of December, Boeing has conducted 3 B-1 flights on ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB), ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) and ZA510 (LN 59, JA817A). These three aircraft are for LOT Polish Airlines, Qatar Airways and ANA respectively.
In addition to these first flights, Boeing has conducted a few follow on test flights of other 787s including two in Charleston. Both ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) and ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) have flown out of Charleston in recent days. These aircraft were to have been delivered earlier in the fall but on going financing issues at Air India have prevented the carrier from taking delivery. The fact that these two aircraft have flown on back-to-back days may raise the possibility that Air India has some how arranged the bridge financing needed to take delivery but this speculation is tempered by Air India complaining that their 787s are experiencing "electrical issues" and will not take anymore deliveries of 78s until these "issues" are corrected with a permanent fix. Interestingly, none of the other 7 Dreamliner customers have reported (at least publicly) of any electrical issues with airplanes with the exception of yesterday's problem with United.
There are currently 7 787s that are in flight tests with another 6 that are making preparations for their B-1 flights. Of the 6 preparing for 1st flight, I believe that 4 will eventually fly this month and fly fairly soon. There are 3 aircraft (all for Air India) that are ready for delivery but again it depends on the issues at Air India. Thus Boeing has the potential to deliver 14 though we know that they won't deliver that many. For one thing Boeing hasn't conducted very many post B-1 test flights on these airplanes and some of the customers themselves may not be ready to take delivery by the end of the month. Here's whom I believe will be able to take delivery this month:
ANA (2), Qatar Airways (2), United Airlines (2), LAN (1), Japan Airlines (1), Air India (2, maybe).
This is 8 (possibly going to 10) that can be delivered by the end of the month. Since Boeing has taken the majority of these frames on a B-1 flight very early in the month, it leaves them enough time, prior to Boeing's Christmas break, to conduct further test flights and prepare the aircraft for delivery.
United had an incident with their third (and most recently delivered) 787. This aircraft is N26902 which was delivered on Nov. 20th. Thankfully, there wasn't any evidence fire or electrical arcing in the aft electrical bay of the 787 that made the emergency landing at New Orleans but preliminary reports say that one of the 6 starter generators on the aircraft failed. The suspect part is being replaced and will be tested before the aircraft is placed back into service very soon. I believe the generators are made by Hamilton Sundstrand.
There has a been a noticeable uptick in 787 flight activity both at Everett and Charleston since the first of the month. In the first four days of December, Boeing has conducted 3 B-1 flights on ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB), ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) and ZA510 (LN 59, JA817A). These three aircraft are for LOT Polish Airlines, Qatar Airways and ANA respectively.
In addition to these first flights, Boeing has conducted a few follow on test flights of other 787s including two in Charleston. Both ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) and ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) have flown out of Charleston in recent days. These aircraft were to have been delivered earlier in the fall but on going financing issues at Air India have prevented the carrier from taking delivery. The fact that these two aircraft have flown on back-to-back days may raise the possibility that Air India has some how arranged the bridge financing needed to take delivery but this speculation is tempered by Air India complaining that their 787s are experiencing "electrical issues" and will not take anymore deliveries of 78s until these "issues" are corrected with a permanent fix. Interestingly, none of the other 7 Dreamliner customers have reported (at least publicly) of any electrical issues with airplanes with the exception of yesterday's problem with United.
There are currently 7 787s that are in flight tests with another 6 that are making preparations for their B-1 flights. Of the 6 preparing for 1st flight, I believe that 4 will eventually fly this month and fly fairly soon. There are 3 aircraft (all for Air India) that are ready for delivery but again it depends on the issues at Air India. Thus Boeing has the potential to deliver 14 though we know that they won't deliver that many. For one thing Boeing hasn't conducted very many post B-1 test flights on these airplanes and some of the customers themselves may not be ready to take delivery by the end of the month. Here's whom I believe will be able to take delivery this month:
ANA (2), Qatar Airways (2), United Airlines (2), LAN (1), Japan Airlines (1), Air India (2, maybe).
This is 8 (possibly going to 10) that can be delivered by the end of the month. Since Boeing has taken the majority of these frames on a B-1 flight very early in the month, it leaves them enough time, prior to Boeing's Christmas break, to conduct further test flights and prepare the aircraft for delivery.
United had an incident with their third (and most recently delivered) 787. This aircraft is N26902 which was delivered on Nov. 20th. Thankfully, there wasn't any evidence fire or electrical arcing in the aft electrical bay of the 787 that made the emergency landing at New Orleans but preliminary reports say that one of the 6 starter generators on the aircraft failed. The suspect part is being replaced and will be tested before the aircraft is placed back into service very soon. I believe the generators are made by Hamilton Sundstrand.
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Updated 787 Production - 7/5/2012
The 787 production and disposition list has been updated to reflect the firing order for airplanes 81 to 90. This lot of aircraft should be in production through mid-October 2012. There are no new customers on the list but LOT Polish Airlines will receive its 3rd, 4th and 5th 787s from a total order of 8. All these aircraft should be delivered, assuming no issues with production or the aircraft, by the end of this year. The airlines that are to get aircraft from this lot of 10 are Hainan (2), ANA, JAL (2), LOT Polish (3), Qatar, and Air India. Airplane 90 also marks a start of the block point of 787s where Boeing is to get the 787-8 down to the promised contractual weight when the program was launched in 2004. The airline that will receive the first aircraft in this block point is Air India, surprisingly. Please note that this firing order can change between know and the time that these airplanes start final assembly perhaps even after they've been rolled out of the final assembly hall.
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