Boeing delivers an anemic 5 787s in November.

So you know how I said that I thought Boeing can deliver 10 to 12 787s last month...boy I didn't even come close.  Instead they delivered an anemic 5 aircraft last month despite all the activity with many of  the aircraft that are still parked in Everett and Charleston.  Boeing has maintained that they will deliver more than 60 787s this year an though the expectations was for a number closer to 68 tor 69 Boeing will still claim that they will have hit their target if all they deliver is 61 in 2013.  They would have met their guidance though I think it would have been a disappointment.

That said, I still do believe they can deliver 64 airplanes this year.  Thus far, Boeing has delivered 56 aircraft including 2 in December. They have the potential to deliver 8 more aircraft even though they can deliver just 5 more and meet their guidance. 

Lately Boeing has been running a few test flights on two frames built in Charleston: ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) for China Southern Airlines and ZA187 (LN 125, JA833J) for Japan Airlines.  I believe that these are final customer flights meant to wring out any further squawks that customer reps have found.  These airplanes should deliver soon but along with those I do expect further deliveries to Hainan, QANTAS (Jetstar) and the first 787 business jet to the UAE Presidential Flight.

Here's my list of expected 787 deliveries in December:

China Southern - 2 aircraft - ZA386 and ZA381
Hainan Airlines - 2 aircraft - ZA432 and ZA435
Japan Airlines - 1 aircraft - ZA187
QANTAS (Jetstar) - 2 aircraft - ZA216 and ZA217
UAE Presidential Flight (leased from ILFC) - 1 aircraft - ZA560

787-9
787-9 seems to be making fairly good progress and the flight test program is slowly coming up on three full months of flight testing. It is expected that the flight test/certification program will continue for another 3 to 4 months and first delivery to Air New Zealand should occur around July 2014.  The first production 787-9 (ZB197) was rolled out of 40-26 on November 20th and placed inside the Everett Modification Center (EMC).  This aircraft will deliver to ANA probably later in the summer.  The second production aircraft and the first to deliver to the launch customer is ZB003 is still a couple months away from starting final assembly but both these airplanes will be used for F & R (functionality and reliability) testing as well as other FAA mandated tests which needs to be completed on a production standard aircraft.  The three flight test aircraft will be refurbished with 2 going to Air New Zealand and the 3rd (GE-powered) 787-9 flight test aircraft is rumored to be going to Japan Airlines.

Lastly, two 787 that were most recently rolled out the final assembly building in Everett were taken not to the flightline but to the EMC.  There was confusion related to this and many speculated that it is due to some "issues" that the 787 might be experiencing though nothing has come up that would warrant that kind of speculation.  The two aircraft are ZA586 which is another ILFC leased business jet and ZB197, the aforementioned 787-9 for ANA that will be used for testing.  First ZA586 is probably there to get some specialized work down related to its cabin installation after delivery.  Nothing unusual there.  ZB197 is not needed for another couple months and will probably have some minimal flight test equipment installed.  Either way I don't think it's a sign of anything amiss in the 787 program.

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Boeing increases 787 flight tempo to make a push for November month end deliveries

This past weekend, Boeing flew a number of 787s in a push to deliver them by the end of the month which will be shortened by the Thanksgiving Holiday.  Boeing had to fly a number of B flights as well as functional check flights (FCF) on several aircraft before proceeding with customer test flights. The increased temp in the last three days indicated that Boeing wants to deliver these airplanes relatively soon. Several flights were performed on aircraft destined for Hainan (2), Jetairfly (TUI), Air India, and Norwegian Air Shuttle.  On Friday, Boeing performed test flights on two 787s for China Southern.  I don't think these two are ready for delivery and may require more test flights this week.  Boeing can still deliver 787s for the first 3 days of this week and on Friday after Thanksgiving  Here's the ones that I think should deliver this week:

Norwegian (ZA650, LN 136, EI-LNC)
Japan Airlines (ZA187, LN 125, JA833J)
TUI (Jetairfly) (ZA327, LN 137, OO-JDL)
Hainan Airlines - 2 - (ZA432, LN 79, B-2729) and (ZA435, LN 131, B-2731)
China Southern Airlines - 2 - (ZA381, LN 36, B-2726) and (ZA386, LN 104, B-2737)

All of these airplanes have flown a comparable number of test flights compared to those previously delivered to the same airline.  If these airplanes are not delivered this week then more than likely the delivery will be made next week.  If Boeing can deliver even 5 of these airplanes this week, it will be a very good month for them delivery wise.

Since Boeing has increased the production rate to 10/month, they're under increasing pressure to move airplanes off the flightlines and into customer hands lest the production 787s start to crowd the Everett and Charleston tarmac again.

For next month I don't see it being much of a stretch for Boeing to deliver 10 to 11 787s in a push to pad the year end numbers.  During the next 36 days (between now and year end) I can see Boeing pushing out 2 more 787s from Charleston and 6 more from Everett (including one that will pull out by the end of November). Most of these will be delivered in January.  At Everett, ZA188 (LN 152) will be the last aircraft to go to the flightline this year to prepare for delivery.  At Charleston ZA294 (LN 145, N26910) will be the last one to be pulled out of 88-30.  Of course, Boeing may surprise us and also pull out ZA564 (LN 155) and ZA447 (LN 156) for a total of 10 787s in December.

My final number for 787 deliveries for 2013 is 66 plus or minus 2.

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Boeing equals 2012 787 delivery total.

Mid way through October Boeing has delivered 46 787s which is the same number that they delivered in all of 2012.  They've made great progress in bouncing back from the battery issues that grounded the world wide fleet and halted deliveries.  Through Oct. 6th, Boeing has delivered 95 787s and looks to deliver the 100th 787 later this month. Which one will get that honor is up in the air but it should still happen this month as there are several 787s that are in the middle or have completed their production testing.

Given we're at month end I think there is a little bit more clarity to the delivery schedule for the rest of this month.  So far in October Boeing has delivered 6 787 including 4 from Charleston.  Boeing, I believe, can deliver another 6 to 8 aircraft as follows:

ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) to Japan Airlines
ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) to Air India
ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) to China Southern Airlines
ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) to Hainan Airlines
ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) to China Southern Airlines
ZA562 (LN 122, N964AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA563 (LN 127, N965AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA446 (LN 130, V8-DLB) to Royal Brunei Airlines

* Dependent on US Govt. shutdown

While it looks good that the US government may reopen as early as tomorrow this could help with the deliveries to US-based buyers like ILFC.  ZA562's deliver, it seems, has been delayed as the FAA's registration office in Wichita, KS has remained closed because of the budget debacle.

While Boeing has been pretty aggressive with conducting production flights for the first half of the month, things seems to have quieted down in the last couple of days indicating that Boeing may be making taking some corrective action on the airplanes that they have flown before conducting customer acceptance flights or are preparing for those customer flights which would get underway shortly.  Additionally, Boeing is preparing to fly the second 787-9 (ZB002, LN 133, N789FT) within the next week though no date has been given. So far the 787-9 test program has accumulated just under 94 flight test hours.

Looking ahead, it seems that Boeing might be gearing up to increase 787 output per their plan.  10/month by the end of the year is still their goal and they seem to be on the verge of achieving it. Sources have told me that LN 158 will be the first airframe that will be produced at 10/month.  This aircraft is slated to be built in Charleston.  Boeing appears to be loading a 787 frame into position 1 every 14 to 16 days.  Extrapolated this would mean that ZA244 (LN 158, VT-ANP) should load (and Boeing would start producing 10/month) around December 8th.  Boeing is quickening the production rate which did slow down due to the 787-9 flight test aircraft assembly.

Lastly, with the government shutdown seemingly coming to an end, I'd like to leave you all with this:

So... the good news is that you're getting the government back, and the bad news is that you're getting THAT government back.
— SarcasticRover (@SarcasticRover) October 16, 2013

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Weather likely to slow down 787 deliveries over next few days

The Everett weather may be looking to put a hold on deliveries for the next few days and may ground aircraft  all together.  The Seattle area is expecting rain....a lot of it as Mt Ranier is forecasted to have 10 FEET of snow but the lower elevations, while not getting that much, will probably be clobbered as well with large amounts of rain.  Boeing is still stuck at 35 deliveries in total to 8 customers.  There has been some movements of assembled aircraft with ZA504 (LN 15) moving to the Runaway storage area and ZA150 (LN 17) moving to the EMC.  In a surprise move, ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) was moved to the EMC, ostensibly for change incorporation.  This MAY indicate some movement to deliver 787s to the Chinese (China Southern and Hainan) but it's too early to tell.  This aircraft could easily go back to the temporary parking/storage that it had previously occupied. ZA175 (LN 20) finally made it inside the EMC to continue change incorporation and finally ZA287 (LN 52, N26903) was moved to the paint hangar and should be out soon. Interestingly ZA285 (LN 45, N29601) is still out on the flightline even though it was pulled out of the EMC earlier.

With the Thanksgiving holidays coming up along with the rainy weather in the Pacific Northwest, don't expect too much happening out of Everett this week.  There is supposed to be a line move early next week.  Lastly, there is a rumor that Air India will be able to pay for another 787 this week and fly it away from Charleston but so far nothing has happened.

787 now solidly at 5/month production rate. Chinese 787s into storage, LOT 787s delivery schedule clarified....a bit

Boeing has moved three 787s for two Chinese carriers into long term storage at Everett's South Ramp while a fourth 787 awaiting change incorporation is also being stored on a runaway parking spot.

Boeing has moved ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) and ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) bot h for China Southern Airlines as well as ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728) for Hainan Airlines into the South Ramp and has taped and sealed the aircraft to protect them until they are ready to be delivered. ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) had been stored on the Everett's RWY 11/29 with other 787s awaiting change incorporation and will probably be there for some time until the issues with the CAAC are resolved. There are 7 other 787s that are in production or final assembly and I am not sure if those airframes will be reallocated or will be produced for Hainan and China Southern and then stored. It seems to me that it will be the former as buyer furnished equipment such as the engines and galleys have, at this stage, been ordered and delivered or will be delivered soon to Boeing's facilities in Charleston and Everett.  These items require lead time and Boeing did go ahead with production on the Chinese airframes even through the issues with China was not resolved.

On a brighter note, I received information regarding LOT Polish Airlines' 787 deliveries.  The first contractual delivery of ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) is tentatively scheduled for November 9th.  This aircraft will remain in Everett for about 5 days for crew training before flying to Warsaw on the 14th.

Future deliveries flights of LOT's other 787s to Warsaw are scheduled as follows:

ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) - delivery to Warsaw is in early January 2013 (probably contractual delivery in late December 2012)

The other three in production are to be delivered at monthly intervals during the first quarter of 2013 but they will all be waiting in Everett in storage which begs the question,why start producing them now when delivery is months away?  I don't have an answer for that, unfortunately.

In production news, Charleston is starting to move faster on production out put of 787s.  The 5th Charleston built 787 was moved out to the flightline within the last couple of days.  This is ZA241 (LN 72, VT-ANM) for Air India. This means that Boeing has achieved a 1/month production rate on the 787s at Charleston and a solid 4/month at Everett.. During the day today, Boeing sent ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) to Ft Worth for painting and ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) was flown back to Charleston to finish pre-delivery test flights.  It is rumored that Boeing will deliver ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) this week to Air India but there is still some uncertainty due to Air India's financing the purchases of the Dreamliner.

Boeing continues to work on the '87s at Everett that need re-work.  They had recently started change incorporation on ZA504 (LN 15) for ANA and this past weekend, they moved ZA234 (LN 30, VT-ANE) to the EMC.  Given the amount of re-work needed on these frames it'll be sometime around the first quarter of 2013 before this aircraft is delivered.

787 production update

Not much has changed in the last few weeks.  Boeing seems to working the change incorporation program in reverse numerical order with airplanes 10 to 19 seemingly slated to be be the last batch to go through the EMC.

Boeing did get one 787 (for Ethiopian) done with change incorporation but that aircraft, ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP), is now back at the EMC. Over the last couple of days, media reports said that there is a second 787 that had a cracked fan mid-shaft. I believe that this Ethiopian Dreamliner is that aircraft and is back at the EMC to have a replacement engine fitted.  Once this airplane has cleared out I expect that ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern will take its place to begin change incorporation.

Boeing did move ZA260 (LN 39, ET-AOO) to the EMC to start the change incorporation process in the meantime. Also a litle interesting is that two airplanes on the final assembly line seemed to have switched places.  ZA432 (LN 79) for Hainan Airlines and ZA271 (LN 78) for LOT Polish Airlines were in positions 3 and 4 respectively in building 40-26.  Now they seemed to have reversed positions.  The only reason I can think of is that Boeing may not have space and wanted to complete work on the Hainan Dreamliner before rolling both airplanes out to the flightline to start pre-flight.  Currently in 40-26 there are 4 airplanes occupying all four assembly positions as well as one 787 in 40-24 occupying the first assembly position on the surge line in that building. I do expect to see a line move early next week.

Lastly, I can't confirm if any more 787s have been delivered in the last couple of days but evidence does point to Air India taking delivery either tomorrow (Sunday, Sept. 30) or Monday (Oct. 1) of ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) which is the 1st 787 built by the Boeing Charleston team.  Rumor has it that Jim McNerney will be there to celebrate the first 787 (really the first Boeing commercial airplane) built outside of the Puget Sound region.  It will be more of a celebration of that fact rather than a celebration of Air India receiving another 787.  A second Charleston built 787 left this afternoon for Ft. Worth to be painted joining an Everett built 787 for Ethiopian already there. I expect the Ethiopian Dremaliner to fly back in the next 2-3 days and the Air India 787 to return to Charleston in the next 10-14 days.

The mystery of 787 number 66 part deux

Well there seems to be a little bit more clarity on ZA135 (LN 66) and whether this airplane is in for storage or if it is being prepared for delivery.  Yesterday the a picture by Moonm showed ZA135 (LN 66) with engines hanging but with all the windows and doors sealed.  There was considerable debate what this meant and if it was a sign that this airplane still had to go through change incorporation.  Today local Everett photographer Matt Cawby flew around Paine Field and some of his photos showed ZA135 being worked on outside building 40-51.  Of particular interest is that this airplane now has some of the window and door seals removed.  The window masking is still on (presumably in preparation for painting).  This is a good sign that Boeing intends to move this airplane into the standard pre-delivery work and test flights.  Another less obvious sign is that Boeing moved one 787 from one flightline stall to another. ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern went from stall 102 to stall 201.  Stalls 101 to 109 have been used by Boeing to prepare 787s for delivery. It's conceivable that stall 102 is where ZA135 will be parked as it is prepared for delivery.  Lastly, Matt's photos shows the wheels of the airplane uncovered as opposed to those that are being stored around Paine Field.  This indicates that Boeing will be moving the airplane from its current spot soon.  Where to is another question. The next movement of this airplane will give a more clear indication of the future of this airplane and whether Boeing has indeed turned the corner in 787 production.  It is very, very close.