|Projected 2016 Deliveries (Operator)||Expected Total Deliveries||Expected 787-8 Deliveries||Expected 787-9 Deliveries|
|Air New Zealand||3||0||3|
|KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines||6||0||6|
|Norwegian Air International Ltd||4||0||4|
|Royal Air Maroc||3||3||0|
|Saudi Arabian Airlines||3||0||3|
|Scoot Pte Ltd||2||2||0|
|Virgin Atlantic Airways||4||0||4|
With 2015 winding up, this is a good time to look ahead to production and delivery of the 787 in 2016.
According to sources, Boeing should deliver 140 787s including 7 early build 787s in 2016. Next year will see many changes for the 787 program not the least of which is the break of rate from 10/month to 12/month. Given that 133 787s will be new builds this indicates that the increase in production rate will allow Boeing to deliver 13 more 787s in 2016.
In 2015 we started seeing the 787-9 deliveries outpacing those of the 787-8. In 2016 the number 787-9 deliveries should out deliver the 787-8 by a margin of 2.68:1, 102 787-9 should be delivered vs. only 38 787-8s.
Another milestone that should take place by the end of 2016 is the start of 787-10 production. The first 787-10 test aircraft should load into position 1A in Charleston late in the 4th quarter of 2016. In order to protect current 787 production from any unforeseen assembly issues, Boeing will reallocate 787-8 and 787-9 production slots from Charleston to Everett. These slots will include aircraft that will enter final assembly before loading of ZC001 (LN528) as well as after it has started final assembly. The extra margin will allow Boeing to conduct tests inside the assembly building as well without disrupting production of customer aircraft. I anticipate that the first 787-10 aircraft should roll out during the 1st quarter 2017.
Obviously the big deal for the 787 program is the increase in production. Right now Everett is producing 5-6 aircraft per month while Charleston is between 4-5. Between the two, Boeing is producing 10/month. By March 2016 both production facilities will be starting to produce at 6/month with the delivery rate increasing in May 2016 as can be seen in the table above and below. Curiously, August shows only 7 deliveries which may be due to customer readiness to take delivery during that time of the year. It appears that deliveries in September will make up for the low August delivery count. The 787 program should end 2016 on a strong delivery note with 34 projected deliveries.
There will be 787 operators who will receive their first 787 in 2016. They are: Air Austral, Air China, Air Europa, Air France, Crystal Air and Uzbekistan Airways. The operators who will be receiving their 1st 787-9 are Aeromexico, Air China, Air France, American Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Norwegian, Thomson, and Xiamen.
Projected Delivery Monthly Breakout:
Here are charts based on the table above:
Looking at the first table one can't help but noticing that a few carriers will be getting a large number of deliveries. Air Canada will be inducting 10 787-9, ANA will take 12 787-9 as well as their last 787-8, British Airways will receive 11 787-9s and American Airlines will take charge of 4 787-8 and 4 787-9s. Chinese carrier Hainan will also take 8 aircraft, all 787-9s.
As with 2015, I'll be keeping track of the 787 delivery progress through 2016 among other things related to the 787 particularly the 787-10 development.