Thursday, November 19, 2015

2016 Look Ahead for the 787 Deliveries

Projected 2016 Deliveries (Operator)Expected Total DeliveriesExpected 787-8 DeliveriesExpected 787-9 Deliveries
Aeroméxico303
Air Austral220
Air Canada10010
Air China707
Air Europa550
Air France101
Air India220
Air New Zealand303
American Airlines844
ANA13112
Avianca330
British Airways11011
Crystal Air110
Ethiopian Airlines440
Etihad Airways505
Hainan Airlines808
Japan Airlines734
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines606
LAN505
Norwegian Air International Ltd404
Qatar Airways550
Royal Air Maroc330
Royal Jordanian110
Saudi Arabian Airlines303
Scoot Pte Ltd220
Thomson101
United Airlines505
Uzbekistan Airways220
Vietnam Airlines505
Virgin Atlantic Airways404
Xiamen Airlines101
Total14038102

With 2015 winding up, this is a good time to look ahead to production and delivery of the 787 in 2016.

According to sources, Boeing should deliver 140 787s including 7 early build 787s in 2016. Next year will see many changes for the 787 program not the least of which is the break of rate from 10/month to 12/month. Given that 133 787s will be new builds this indicates that the increase in production rate will allow Boeing to deliver 13 more 787s in 2016.  

In 2015 we started seeing the 787-9 deliveries outpacing those of the 787-8.  In 2016 the number 787-9 deliveries should out deliver the 787-8 by a margin of 2.68:1, 102 787-9 should be delivered vs. only 38 787-8s.

Another milestone that should take place by the end of 2016 is the start of 787-10 production.  The first 787-10 test aircraft should load into position 1A in Charleston late in the 4th quarter of 2016.  In order to protect current 787 production from any unforeseen assembly issues, Boeing will reallocate 787-8 and 787-9 production slots from Charleston to Everett.  These slots will include aircraft that will enter final assembly before loading of ZC001 (LN528) as well as after it has started final assembly.  The extra margin will allow Boeing to conduct tests inside the assembly building as well without disrupting production of customer aircraft.  I anticipate that the first 787-10 aircraft should roll out during the 1st quarter 2017.

LocationDeliveriesCharlestonDeliveriesEverettDeliveries
Charleston61787-817787-821
Everett79787-944787-958

Obviously the big deal for the 787 program is the increase in production.  Right now Everett is producing 5-6 aircraft per month while Charleston is between 4-5.  Between the two, Boeing is producing 10/month.  By March 2016 both production facilities will be starting to produce at 6/month with the delivery rate increasing in May 2016 as can be seen in the table above and below. Curiously, August shows only 7 deliveries which may be due to customer readiness to take delivery during that time of the year.  It appears that deliveries in September will make up for the low August delivery count.  The 787 program should end 2016 on a strong delivery note with 34 projected deliveries.

There will be 787 operators who will receive their first 787 in 2016.  They are: Air Austral, Air China, Air Europa, Air France, Crystal Air and Uzbekistan Airways. The operators who will be receiving their 1st 787-9 are Aeromexico, Air China, Air France, American Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Norwegian, Thomson, and Xiamen.

Projected Delivery Monthly Breakout:

MonthTotal787-8787-9CharlestonEverett
January102846
February123957
March123966
April102855
May145968
June1541178
July1221057
August72534
September1441059
October1221066
November124848
December105555

Here are charts based on the table above:







Looking at the first table one can't help but noticing that a few carriers will be getting a large number of deliveries.  Air Canada will be inducting 10 787-9, ANA will take 12 787-9 as well as their last 787-8, British Airways will receive 11 787-9s and American Airlines will take charge of 4 787-8 and 4 787-9s.  Chinese carrier Hainan will also take 8 aircraft, all 787-9s.

As with 2015, I'll be keeping track of the 787 delivery progress through 2016 among other things related to the 787 particularly the 787-10 development.

787 Full Production Table

21 comments:

seabosdca said...

I think you have one too many Ethiopian 787-8s in the forecast, because I think your projected delivery date for LN 17 is off by one year.

Uresh said...

These are the delivery dates that I currently have. Obviously planned delivery dates move and they'll be reported.

1coolguy1 said...

Nice job Uresh - very informative.

Uresh said...

Thank you!

wannabuy said...

Thank you for all the hard work.

Now that production is going so well:
1. The 787-10 will be very interesting to follow. The weight/range/short field performance of this type will be important.
2. Cost per airframe. We're at about break even. In 2016 Boeing should start receiving profits off the 787 (even if only to offset prior sunk costs).
3. The 'terrible teens' should be whittled down significantly in 2016. I count seven in the 'current production table' that are scheduled to go out the door next year.

The AC, ANA, and BA deliveries in 2016 are... amazing. 140 deliveries in a year. :)

I'm very curious to see how the backlogs shift. In particular the ratio of 787-10 to 787-9.

Neil/Lightsaber on a.net

tommy said...

Thanks for the update.

I was intrigued to see the LOT plane show up briefly in the firing order, only to be replaced the next month by one for Air India. Any idea what's going on with LOTs order?

Uresh said...

Don't know but it's not uncommon for production slots to be reallocated among different customers. I wouldn't read anything into it. Let's see what future firing order updates will bring for 2017 deliveries.

1coolguy1 said...

Hopefully the sales team didn't give away the -9 and -10's as they did the -8's and have built in some decent margin.
If so, with the deliveries tilting toward the latter Boeing will begin to whittle down the programs deferred costs.

Traveling Man said...

I wonder if Boeing would reconsider making the 787-3.

Seems like a logical solution to the market niche that the A321 is currently gobbling up- a BIG niche at that. And I've read that the 3 would offer better economics for airlines than the A321. Though I don't know if that's accurate.

Thetime Boom said...

Excellente work! thank you for all the info. I have read in the past few days that Avianca is going to take only 1 of the 3 b787 aircraft planned for next year, and also less A320's. The reason is the current Colombia's weak economy plus the devaluation of the currency against the dollar. And also, Avianca planned the b787 to be a replacement of their A332, and only one lease of them will expire on 2016, so they won't need 3 b788 next year, but one. All of this happened because of the initial delayed deliveries of this program so they had to take A332's while the boeings arrived.

Tim said...

I was unaware Thomson Airways had ordered any -9s. They are due to complete their delivery of -8s soon (if not already). Do you know how many they have ordered?

b767300er said...

Thomson (TUI) recieved all it ordered 787-8 (13)
They ordered 1 787-9 with an option for another 2.

Scott Taylor said...

So there's a better than even chance that delivery number 500 will occur in December 2016?

Great work, Uresh - I very much enjoy following this blog and find it extremely informative.

Cheers,

Scott

Uresh said...

Thank you. More like delivery number 500 will occur in early 2017.

Daniel D'Arcangelis said...

500 in early 2017 seems like a very safe bet.

You've got 12 more slated for delivery for 2015, which if Boeing delivers all of those puts the 2015 total deliveries at 135 and overall program deliveries at 351. Leaving 137 to get to #500.

With still some terrible-teen inventory to clear, and the production ramp-up to 12 / month coming, I would't be surprised if they can deliver 137 or more in 2016.

Paul Clark said...

What is said above about Thomson orders isn't quite right. They have firm orders for 3 B789s, having converted their last 2 intended B788s to B789s, and ordering an additional B789 at the same time. They also hold an option for a 4th B789. The first B789 is due to be delivered in Summer 2016, but it will be 2017 before the next one follows.

http://press.thomson.co.uk/thomson-airways-expand-dreamliner-fleet-four-787-9-aircraft/

b767300er said...

Well

Since the merge of First Choice Holidays and Thomson Holidays (TUI) The order for 787 was set on 13. Didnt know that is was changed to 15.

Thomson have already 9
Jetairfly has 1
Arke/TUI NL has 3, that makes the total of 13.

AFAIK there is coming 1 787-9 in 2016 and maybe 2 later in 2017.

aldeen.rs said...

Great job Uresh, I think Boeing will easily complete 500 787 by the end of 2016. all evidence indicated their capabilities to make that on time. B787 program is moving very well these days, hope more improvement will be continued to the production lines & B783 will be introduced soon.

PH-787 said...

Interesting press release: ''By the end of 2016, the KLM fleet is expected to include 10 Boeing 787 Dreamliners''.
Your forecast is only 6 787's for KLM in 2016, +two 2015 deliveries which makes a total of 8..
It seems like the first two Air France 787's are going to KLM?


Link: http://news.klm.com/klm-welcomes-2nd-boeing-787-dreamliner-carnation/

JeffinMass1 said...

How many Boeing 787-9s did Air France commit and finalize? They are receiving their first within the next few months.

Paulo Martins said...

Nice blog.