July 30 787 Update

Now that we're at the end of July I thought that it would be a good time to look at some articles that have recently come out regarding the 787 since the earnings call last week. Many people were disappointed that Boeing doesn't have any new schedule ready as of now. They said that the new schedule will be ready during the third quarter (of this year I think) so we'll see by September 30th what will happen.

Start things off, Flightblogger reported that because of the need to modify the brake control monitoring software due to overheating of some of the braking elements during a high energy (trying to stop a heavy and fast aircraft), there is a conflict between Boeing and Crane who wrote the code over who should pay for it. Crane claims that they delivered into Boeing the software they needed and that their production costs already exceeded their initial projects without and of the needed redesigns. There are a lot of revealing comments in Flightbloggers posting.

Flightblogger: Boeing and Crane

Next up, Guy Norris reports that despite the wing issues, Boeing is still doing some ground testing on the 787. Guy reported that Boeing is continuously testing upgrades to the 787 software during a Wedge Regression Test (don't ask me what that is).

Guy's July 24th 787 Update

Third, Mike Mecham, Joe Anselmo and Guy Norris talked about Boeing's lack of a schedule for the 787 and the implications (financial and otherwise). they cite skeptical analyst who believe that the schedule will move further to the right as well as the possible implications regarding costs associated with the fix and testing that has to be done.

Aviation Week's 787 Schedule Elusiveness

Batting clean up, is Dominic Gates and the Seattle Times with further analysis of the side of body issue and the seriousness of the problem (which appears to be more severe then initially revealed). In the article, Dominic Gates says that there was damaged done not just to the wing boxes (the main wing structure) but also to the center wing box which is in the fuselage. Damage occurred not at ultimate load (150%) but at a load much lower than that which explains why Boeing decided (for good reason) not to proceed with flight testing. The flight envelope would have been so limiting that it would have been useless to fly any test flights since the data collected would have been minimal. It seems from reading the article that Boeing would have to reinforce not only the wing side but the fuselage side of the side of body.

Seattle Times: 787 Wing flaw extends to inside of plane

Fifth, Boeing had moved ZA001 to the paint hanger for preliminary work before the installing the reinforcement fix. Flightblogger had said that Boeing did plan to move ZA001 into the paint hanger for the fix and that the fix may be installed as early as mid August. Aircraft ZA001 has since been moved back out to the flightline. Parts for ZA102 (third production 787) has already arrived save for the rear fuselage (as far as I know). Final assembly should be getting underway soon. My last note is that the large cargo freighters (LCF) have been making a lot of runs as of late though as I said before, it's hard to know what's, if anything, is being transported unless you have someone there photographing the loading and unloading of the aircraft.

Lastly, Boeing just completed the transfer of Vought's 787 operations today and will now be known as Boeing Charleston.

News Release Issued: July 30, 2009 2:00 PM EDT

Boeing Completes Acquisition of Vought Operations in South Carolina

SEATTLE, July 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) announced today the completion of the acquisition of the business and operations conducted by Vought Aircraft Industries at its South Carolina facility, where a key structure for the 787 Dreamliner is built. The acquisition agreement was announced originally on July 7.
The newly acquired facility, located in North Charleston, will be called Boeing Charleston. Boeing Charleston will be managed by the 787 program as a wholly owned subsidiary. Boeing Charleston will continue to perform fabrication, assembly and systems installation for 787 aft fuselage sections, which are made primarily of composite materials.

787 brake issue resolved

UPDATE : Matt Cawby posted a couple of pics showing trucks delivering 787 parts outside building 40-26. He also stated that the inboard wing flaps should be installed very soon and that the thrust reversers are on. See his post here. Also I talked to a 787 machinist and he's and some others he knows plan on voting yes on the contract. He feels that this is the best contract that they can get and if it's rejected then they won't get as good a contract. He also said that some people were misunderstanding the verbiage of the contract which was leading to misunderstandings of what is being proposed to the workers. He said that he'll be very, very unhappy if it's rejected.

According to Saj Ahmad of Fleetbuzz Editorial.com in an editorial that you can read here the brake issue that had threaten the 787 first flight (before any strike related delays came into play) have been resolved. Crane Aerospace have resolved the brake software issues.

This should clear the way for first flight depending on what happens this weekend and Boeing's own assessment of the 787 program post strike.

In the same article, Saj also reports that the A350 program is having issues of its own. The design freeze milestone was supposed to be this month. This milestone freezes the external configuration of the aircraft and starts the process for the detail design work to proceed.

Apparently Airbus is able to only do a partial design freeze. Saj reports that the final design freeze can slip to the 2nd quarter 2009 and can have consequences for Airbus' planned service entry in 2013.

787 Brakes

Currently the only issue that stands between the 787 and it flying is the brake monitoring software (the labor issues notwithstanding).

Crane Co, GE, Smith and Boeing haven't really given a status update on this issue as of yet but it certainly doesn't mean that there hasn't been progress or not. Pat Shanahan has said that this issue is helping to eat up some of the schedule margin that the program has which cannot be a good thing. How much margin is left is unclear but in Jon Ostrower's blog, Boeing plans to have all hardware certified for safety of flight and ready to go for first flight by the end of the third week of August at the latest.

Now with the brake monitoring system.

The hardware is fine and the software has been written. Crane has to verify the software works and along with that Crane also has to collect all the documentation (and perhaps even prepare documentation) related to the brake monitoring software for Safety of Flight certification, in other words the system can't be used until the FAA know that it's safe even for flight testing.

According to Pat Shanahan (quoted in Jon's blog), everything except for the brakes will safety of flight certified by the end of the third week of August at the latest. When that will take place is a matter of speculation but my guess is around late August to mid September. It will probably go inside the 767 hanger for some final assembly activities and perhaps installation of some flight test equipment and then outside for ground testing.

Boeing 787 Update at Farnborough

Pat Shanahan gave a 787 update this morning in the UK though short on details (as opposed to the one in April) it still suggests that they are on track for first flight late this year. Power on was successfully completed with a few minor glitches that were quickly resolved. Boeing is finalizing the shipping date of the two remaining sections for LN 4 later this week. My guess is that they will be in Everett by the end of next week but we’ll see.

Boeing is planning to activate LN 1’s hydraulic system next week, otherwise known as “oil” on (as opposed to power on). This will allow Boeing to raise and lower the landing gear in the hanger before first flight (you don’t want to test something like that on first flight in case something goes wrong). It will also allow Boeing to test all the movable flight surfaces (flaps, slats, elevator, rudder and speed brakes). As reported on this web site earlier, Boeing was planning to move the fatigue air frame from 40-24 to the fatigue test area and move LN 1 from 40-26 to 40-24. The later move is probably in doubt due to hydraulic on next week and the need to test some of the mechanical systems. I think the move of LN 1 probably won’t occur until 1st to 2nd week of August

Regarding LN 4 – the damage to the main fuselage caused a disruption in the schedule and the certification process maybe impacted though Boeing says they do have some schedule margin to absorb the disruption in the schedule.

Speaking of margin, Shanahan said that small glitches in the production schedule is eating up some of the margin. I’m presuming that he’s talking about LN 4 and that may be a cause for concern further down with certification testing. Everett is now the bottleneck for continuing production. The suppliers are no longer the issue and they have greatly improved on reducing traveled work. Look for no traveled work starting with LN 8, by then Global Aeronautica should be shipping 100% complete sections, Spirit is already shipping 100% complete sections with LN 4 and Vought will ship 100% complete rear fuselage sections starting with LN 5.

One issue with regards to the road to first flight is the traceability of the brake control software to meeting certification requirement which is being characterized as a minor issue and that a fix is being implemented. Crane Co. is responsible for that part of the Dreamliner.

Right now Boeing is saying that APU and engine testing is due to start next month, followed by gauntlet testing (a series of tests that trick the airplane’s computer into thinking that it’s in flight and see how the systems react to normal flight procedures as well as in flight anomalies). This will be followed by taxi and brake tests and then first flight. Shanahan is saying first flight should take place around November but I personally think it’ll be October if there are no major issues.

So far Boeing has completed 98% of safety of hardware testing, 96% of hardware is qualified for first flight (will be 100% by 2nd week of August) and 95% of hardware is ready for first flight. Despite this progress there is still some part shortages with LN 1 though these are minor. There is still some work to do in the mid fuselage and the wing of LN 1 and they need some tubing to complete the fuel system on the airplane as well. Also they need to complete airplane 2 before airplane 1 can fly as airplane 2 will be used for ground verification tests. Finishing up work in the mid fuselage of LN 2 also has eaten into some of the margin.

In terms of future variants, Boeing is planning to finish trade studies for the 787-9 by the end of the year and have a firm configuration for the 787-9 by the 2nd quarter of 2009 and entry into service by early 2012. They also said that the 787-3 will benefit from the experience gained on the 787-8 and 787-9 thus indicating that they are still going to go ahead with that variant though the time table is still up in the air.

On the static test aircraft frame, testing is due to start soon with three main tests to be done soon: pressurization testing, leading/trailing edge testing, and vibration testing.

Until the next update…have fun and keep your head in the clouds!