Tuesday, June 26, 2012

787 Half Time Report

So now that we're coming to half way through the year I thought to do a brief review and then look forward to the second half of the 787 ball game.
Deliveries in the first half were shaky. We got word of the incorrectly installed shims on the horizontal tailplane (HTP) on many of the aircraft that were built and in service. This slowed down deliveries as it wasn't a hard problem to solve but more of a question of access to the areas of the aircraft that needed correction. As a consequence we've only seen 11 deliveries (what will be 11 deliveries by June 30th). There weren't any deliveries in February and May. The former probably due to the shim issue and the later due to issues with Air India. It was expected that Air India would have taken two 787s in May. It is now looking more like a July delivery though if the GoI approves the agreement between Boeing and Air India. ANA will be taking delivery of one 787, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A), on June 28th and should fly away on June 29th.  When this airplane is delivered Boeing would have turned over 11 787s so far this year. There is a slight chance that if the GoI approves the deal between Air India and Boeing on June 28th then Boeing could possibly deliver 2 or possibly all 3 787s that are currently ready for the carrier.

As we got into late spring early summer Boeing was now sending complete aircraft that had went through the full change incorporation process and were ready for pre-flight. These airplanes were augmented on the flightline by the first airplanes that go straight from the assembly line to the flightline (ok so maybe a slight detour to get a few minor jobs done). This is a major accomplishment for Boeing as now they have more certainty in the supply chain and their production system. ZA135 (LN 66) still had a about 300 small jobs to be completed but as Boeing get further into regular production, the number of these jobs will shrink. 

So in short by the end of June Boeing will have delivered 11 787 so far in 2012 and they will have 10 more that are ready for delivery in July and into August.  This number also includes the three for Air India that are ready to be delivered so Boeing really has 7 to work on as far as delivery preparations are concerned.

Can Boeing deliver 10 next month?  It sure is possible but they will need to devote a lot of resources to get those planes ready, especially those coming off the assembly line.  Currently ZA 135 (LN 66) just made its way into the paint hangar today while ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is now on the flightline ready for ground and flight tests.  They still have to deal with the other aircraft that are coming off the assembly line,  currently 1 787 every 9 days, the next line move is July 3.  Boeing should push out 4 787s from 40-26 to the flightline during the month of July but I don't think they'll deliver in July due to the backlog of airplanes that are currently have to go through pre-flight.

Looking forward.

The next 6 months ahead is full of promise with deliveries to a lot different customers but also challenges when Boeing attempts to ramp to 5/month which I anticipate should occur around October.  Beyond ANA and JAL, Boeing should deliver to Air India (fingers crossed), Qatar Airways, Ethiopian, LAN, United, LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan and China Southern.  I'm still maintaining my view that Boeing will deliver 21 airframes straight from the assembly line (no change incorporation) in addition to the 11 that were delivered in the first half of this year.  That is 32 airplanes.  Add to that at least 4 787s (I think they do have the capability to deliver 5-6) from Charleston and yo are now at 36.  There are currently 6 more that are in various stages of pre-flight (doesn't include LN66 and above or anything built in Charleston) or ready for delivery.  Now we are at 42. Assuming 1.5 787s per month delivered from the inventory that is stored around Everett (that is 9, then we can realistically see 51 deliveries this year.  This does not even factor in other production positives like activation of the surge line or the increase to 5/month.  The final total could be substantially higher than 51 787s with these conditions factored in.  Again this is all assuming that production continues without a hitch and that Boeing continues to drive down the assembled 787 inventory.






5 comments:

Michael Lowrey said...

Uresh,

As always, thanks for the great information.

I don’t think a September delivery date for the first plane for United is all that encouraging, as it suggests a fairly slow change incorporation for a fairly recent build. LN 53 was in the 40-24 in mid-May already and in the EMC from June. So perhaps as long as three months to complete the process. And exactly because it already was in the 40-24 in mid-May and is a higher LN for change incorporation, it also should be one of the next few frames that complete rework. The only planes that, I suppose, might beat it out are LN 43 for Chins Southern (aside in 40-24 in mid-May) and LN 27 for JAL.

Any idea what replaced LN 49 in the EMC?

Uresh said...

Nothing yet but there will be a line move on July 3rd so let's see where all these frames are around that date. The fact that LN 53 does have it's engines on is very encouraging. Normally those wouldn't be put on until they're well into the change incorp process.

entrophian said...

Uresh, I really like your hard work here. Do you know if the JA812 did get delivered yesterday? There seemed to be a short flight as BOE509 yesterday? It seems Boeing has gone quiet about production since the spring?

graeme77 said...

Uresh
Great work, as many before me have said...Will it be possible in the future to read the blog all the way back to day 1 that you published it? Should it be possible, it will be a significant and important document in aviation history. No less fascinating will be the development of the spreadsheet over time.

Uresh said...

509 was not delivered yesterdday as it did a nother customer check flight.

Blogger archives all my posts so you can go back to the very first post to to read them.