One Year In....The 787 year in review.

For the last 12 months I've been giving a monthly update on the 787 flight test progress with the exception of last month. With the one year anniversary of ZA001's first flight and the suspension of 787 flight activities, it seems an appropriate time to review the 787 program and try and take a look ahead to see what awaits the 787. It has been a year of triumphs and heartache within the program and the current forecast for the program is, at best, overcast.

787 - December 15, 2009 to December 14, 2010

December 15, 2009 was a day that Boeing hoped that see the start of putting the troubles of the 787 program in the rear view mirror. It was a day that cloudy and rainy (typical Pacific Northwest weather). The first 787, ZA001, made an on time takeoff and flew for a little over 3 hours. ZA002 flew one week later in a flight that was shortened by issues with the main landing gear door and the nose gear. Nevertheless these initial flights started Boeing on the path of initial airworthiness flight trials. The 787 achieved IAT in mid January 2010 which allowed Boeing to conduct test with the other test flight airplanes as well as with engineers on board. This allowed for the expansion of the787 flight test envelope which would include stability and control testings, flutter testing and functionality and reliability testing of the airplane.

Boeing added airplanes to the test flight fleet with ZA004 flying in late February, 2010 and ZA003 flying in mid March 2010. The near term goal of the program was to achieve Type Inspection Authorization for the 787. This is the point that would formally kick off the certification program for the 787. This point of the program was expected to be achieved by mid to late February, 2010 but was not granted until April 20, 2010. This was a major indicator that the program may suffer delays to the delivery schedule yet again. During this period Boeing had successfully test the 787 wing to the ultimate load limit test on ZY997, the static test airframe. This was a major certification test point that Boeing needed to accomplish given the issues that Boeing had found almost a year earlier with the side of body join and the weakness that was discovered.

Boeing continued testing throughout the spring and summer of 2010. They seemingly hit a very good flight test pace during late May/early June only to see the number of flight and flight hours flown to drop off a month later and then recover later in the summer. Progress was made in September through the early part of November with significant flight hours being posted especially with the GEnx powered 787s that had finally joined the flight test program. However there were set back to flight testing (and production) due to the time needed to inspect the horizontal stabilizers on all 787s due to Alenia's workmanship issues. Boeing needed to spend precious time and resources to inspect and conduct any repairs on the aircraft that were built and/or flying. Still despite the Alenia debacle, Boeing was still on track to deliver the 787 by end of 2010 until an early August Trent 1000 engine test in Derby, UK took a bad turn and the engine had an uncontained failure of it intermediate pressure turbine.

This was a major setback for Rolls and Boeing as it threw the entire schedule into doubt. Indeed, the engine that failed was due to be installed on ZA102 (LN 9) which was to be used for flight tests of production standard aircraft. Boeing had to delay delivery to mid February because of the unavailability of an engine for ZA102 within the needed time frame to start flight tests on this aircraft.

Still Boeing said they were confident in Rolls Royce's hardware and software fixes to prevent a recurrence of the failure and Boeing continued with flight and ground testing of the 787 through early fall until Nov. 9th.

ZA002 was flying a long duration test flight with FAA personnel aboard testing the nitrogen generating system (part of the fuel inerting system) and was on final approach to an airport in Laredo Texas when a fire erupted in the lower electronics bay near the left wing. The fire was out after about 30 seconds but the power panel where the fire originated was destroyed and the aircraft had experienced power distribution problems while in the process of landing. An emergency was declared (apparently after landing) and the crew and test personnel evacuated the aircraft using the emergency slides.

The problems that lead to the fire in the P100 power distribution panel are now well known but now at this point, one year after the first 787 flew the 787 schedule is in shambles. The aviation world is waiting for Boeing's revised schedule. The 787 has had more than its fair share of problems and delays since it was launched in 2004 and there's nothing to say that there won't be any more issues when Boeing and the FAA resumes flight testing.

Boeing is still encountering supplier and production issues and probably will continue to see sporadic halts to part deliveries into Everett. Clearly there is still plenty of issues that need to be cleaned up so that Boeing can start deliveries of the 787 and ramp up production. However, the aviation world is now waking up to the fact in light of problems in various aircraft programs (A380, 787, A400M, F-35, and the A350) that the old model that aircraft manufacturers used to develop, design, test and produce high technology aircraft is out the door. Robert Wall of Aviation Week summed it nicely in a blog post a week ago: "Skeptics quip that Airbus is effectively fighting the last war, and that the only thing it is assuring is that it will invent a whole new series of missteps. If that turns out to be true, then perhaps it is time to put to bed the idea of accelerating development cycles on major products and just learn to live with the fact that the gestation period for a major civil aircraft program is eight years or longer."

Guy Norris: Electrical contactors in P100 is possible source where fire started

Guy Norris got more information on the possible ignition source of the fire in the P100 panel on board ZA002. An electrical contactor which helps distribute power from the engines. There are two of these contactors. One was discovered melted while the other suffered extensive damage.

Another bit of news is that the insulation between the fuselage and the P100 power panel was charred and had been effective in protecting the composite skin of the fuselage. This has been a point of debate in some circles and now apparently the insulation did protect the fuselage as it was meant to do. This should give Boeing and the FAA some comfort.

You can read Guy's post:

Guy Norris: Mid-2011 delivery for delayed 787?

Boeing: Changes to Power Panel Design; revised schedule still weeks away

Boeing has acknowledged the rumors circulating around that it was indeed FOD (foreign object damage) that had caused a short circuit that led to the fire in the P100 power panel.

As a consequence Boeing will undertake a minor redesign of the power panel to reduce the chance of FOD creating and electrical arc or short circuit. Boeing will also implement software changes to make sure that power distribution is improved. This appears to be an acknowledgement that the electrical power redundancies failed as well.

Boeing did not present a revised schedule as they have yet to work that out but they are saying it should be ready in a few weeks. They are developing a plan to present to the FAA for the resumption of flight tests as well asto ferry ZA002 back from Laredo.

Also Flightblogger reports that the foreign object was small and not something the size of a tool as had been earlier reported. KING 5, a Seattle TV station says that it was a washer that caused the short circuit.

Again there is no word on how long it will take the implement the redesign or the software changes. Additionally, the FAA will have to approve all these changes so the schedule will remain in flux.

Boeing will be closed tomorrow and Friday for the Thanksgiving holidays.

Here is Boeing's press release:

Boeing Initiates Changes to 787 Power Panel, Updates to Software

EVERETT, Wash., Nov. 24, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) is developing minor design changes to power distribution panels on the 787 and updates to the systems software that manages and protects power distribution on the airplane. These changes come as the result of what has been learned from the investigation of an onboard electrical fire on a test airplane, ZA002, earlier this month in Laredo, Texas.

"We have successfully simulated key aspects of the onboard event in our laboratory and are moving forward with developing design fixes," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "Boeing is developing a plan to enable a return to 787 flight test activities and will present it to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) as soon as it is complete."

Engineers have determined that the fault began as either a short circuit or an electrical arc in the P100 power distribution panel, most likely caused by the presence of foreign debris. The design changes will improve the protection within the panel. Software changes also will be implemented to further improve fault protection.
The P100 panel is one of five major power distribution panels on the 787. It receives power from the left engine and distributes it to an array of systems.

The 787 team is now assessing the time required to complete the design changes and software updates that are being developed. A revised 787 program schedule is expected to be finalized in the next few weeks.

"Our team is focused on developing these changes and moving forward with the flight test program," said Fancher. "The team in Laredo is also well along in preparing to return ZA002 to Seattle.

Flightblogger: Breaking: Electrical redesign to push 787 delivery

Guy Norris: 787 fire - arc or short

Scott Hamilton: 78 fire caused by FOD, design changes coming, no word on delay

Randy Tinseth: Likely cause of ZA002 incident determined

Aubrey Cohen: Boeing: 787 will need minor changes; schedule impact unknown

At the end of the day everyone wants to know what is the schedule impact of the fire and the resulting redesign of software and hardware. A source told me that he believes that it would set back the 787 no more than three months. Given the information that has come out thus far and my discussions with sources, I do feel that mid to late May delivery time frame is probably about right given the redesign efforts as well as the rework that has to be done on the production aircraft.

Seattle TV Station says washer caused fire on ZA002

A Seattle TV (KING 5) station is reporting that a washer came into contact with parts inside the P100 panel which started the fire. The contact caused a short circuit which sparked the fire on ZA002. The good news is that there will be relatively simple redesign but we have yet to hear about this as well as and potential redesign to make sure that the 787 has full electrical redundancies in these types of emergency situations.

KING 5 also says that Boeing is expected to make a statement today. The stock market is closed so it should be out soon. Stay tuned....

KING 5: KING 5 learns cause of 787 fire

Flightblogger: 787 fire investigation coming to an end

In posting today, Flightblogger is reporting that Boeing has concluded its investigation of the fire aboard ZA002 and they could be in a position to publicly release the results as well as a new schedule but it seems all but certain that there will be another delay. What is not known is how long the delay will be with estimates ranging from 6 months to as much as a year.

Indications are pointing towards FOD as the culprit but there is still open questions as to what the FOD was and where was it located. Additionally, a more important flag was raised about the 787s power redundancies in case of a loss of a unit like P100.

Fligthblogger also revealed that Boeing was able to recreate the effects in the systems integration lab.

Boeing needs to understand why the 787 had assumed that all power was loss and the RAT was deployed (it only deploys in the event of a total power loss). This might necessitate a software and/or hardware fix though it is not known at this time.

On a related note, Susanna Ray of Bloomberg News put out an article where Wall Street analysts say that a 7th delay is a foregone conclusion. Dominic Gates also has an article detailing the investigation and the possibility that FOD played a role in the fire.

The fire may have revealed a potential problem with how power is distributed in the event one of the power distribution panels failed like the P100 did. It is better to find these issues now instead of an revenue flight with 200 passengers on board.

You can read each of the article by clicking the link below:

Flightblogger: Boeing nears end to 787 fire investigation

Susanna Ray: Boeing Dreamliner Faces Seventh Delay, Analysts Say

Dominic Gates: Boeing investigating if foreign object caused 787 electrical fire

Boeing releases more information on ZA002

Boeing came out what now seems like daily updates on their investigation into the fire about ZA002. Boeing is saying that the P100 panel that apparently started the fire in the electronics bay by setting an insulation blanket on fire. Boeing has removed the faulty unit and is sending a replacement unit to be installed in Laredo.

Boeing also states that while there is significant damage to the P100 unit, there doesn't seem to be much damage to the surrounding area or systems. Their investigation is still preliminary so there may be changes in this assessment as the investigation progresses. Boeing stated that they did find molten metal (aluminum according to Flightblogger) near the P100 panel but this was to be expected in light of the fire that took place. Boeing still stresses that their investigation of the area around the P100 panel including the composite fuselage is not completed yet and will take a few more days. They are also trying to assess repair time and plans as well as plans to return the test flight fleet to the air.

Here is Boeing's press release:

Updated Boeing Statement on 787 Dreamliner ZA002 Incident

EVERETT, Wash., November 11, 2010 - Boeing continues to investigate Monday's incident on ZA002. We have determined that a failure in the P100 panel led to a fire
involving an insulation blanket. The insulation self-extinguished once the fault in the P100 panel cleared. The P100 panel on ZA002 has been removed and a
replacement unit is being shipped to Laredo. The insulation material near the
unit also has been removed.

Damage to the ZA002 P100 panel is significant. Initial inspections, however, do not show extensive damage to the surrounding structure or other systems. We have not completed our inspections of that area of the airplane.

The P100 panel is one of several power panels in the aft electronics bay. It receives power from the left engine and distributes it to an array of systems. In the event of a failure of the P100 panel, back-up power sources - including power from the right engine, the Ram Air Turbine, the auxiliary power unit or the battery - are designed to automatically engage to ensure that those systems needed for continued safe operation of the airplane are powered. The backup systems engaged during the incident and the crew retained positive control of the airplane at all times and had the information it needed to perform a safe landing.

Molten metal has been observed near the P100 panel, which is not unexpected in the presence of high heat. The presence of this material does not reveal anything meaningful to the investigation.

Inspection of the surrounding area will take several days and is ongoing. It is too early to determine if there is significant damage to any structure or adjacent systems.

As part of our investigation, we will conduct a detailed inspection of the panel and insulation material to determine if they enhance our understanding of the incident.
We continue to evaluate data to understand this incident. At the same time, we are working through a repair plan. In addition, we are determining the appropriate steps required to return the rest of the flight test fleet to flying status.

Boeing will continue to provide updates as new understanding is gained.

Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times has a very detailed report up as well. In it he says that he has access to Boeing photos showing the damage to the P100 unit including damage to the contactors within the unit which close and open circuits when power is needed. Dominic also said that the insulation blanket which caught fire was placed between the P100 unit and the composite fuselage skin. Once the pilots cut power to P100 (which is on the left side of the airplane), the P200 unit which is on the right side of the airplane provided power as did the aircraft's APU (auxiliary power unit) and RAT. This is why the aircraft was able to land safely with power.

You can read Dominic's article below:

Dominic Gates: Boeing photos show damage to key 787 electrical components

Additionally, Flightblogger has posted his update as well:

Flightblogger: A Closer Look: 787 fire investigation points to P100 power panel

I've added Guy Norris' report that he put out this morning:

Guy Norris: 787 - new detail of fire and damage on ZA002