Big changes for 787 program as manufacturing defects, demand and Covid-19 sends Dreamliners into storage

The past year has been a challenging one for the Boeing 787 program.

Even before COVID-19 became a household word, global commercial aviation was already facing a downtrend in the demand for widebody aircraft like the 787.  2019 saw a decrease in new 787 orders to such a point that Boeing was considering a rate cut. Covid-19 added to the production and delivery stresses for the 787 but now the manufacturing issues with the circumferential fuselage join where the skin of the airplane does not meet certain flatness or smoothness criteria at the the areas of fuselage join has all but stopped 787 deliveries though Boeing still is continuing to push production through both 787 final assembly lines though at a vastly reduced rate.  These two factors have created a glut of stored 787s at Charleston, Everett as well as at Victorville and a couple other smaller sites around the country.

However, the issue is not relegated to just newly assembled aircraft at Everett and Charleston or stored airplanes but also to those in service with airlines around the world.  Those Dreamliners will have to be checked during their next maintenance period and then repaired.

Some readers may recall that earlier this year, a few of Boeing's customers had to ground 8 newly built 787s because of 2 separate improper manufacturing issues that, when combined, had weakened the rear fuselage sections (sections 47/48) of the each of the grounded Dreamliners.  

Now the new issue surrounding the circumferential fuselage join where the sections of the 787 are mated and fastened together can have gaps that are created by the manufacturing flaw.  The flaw is not related to work done at any one location or by any one of Boeing's partners but is related to how the strips of carbon fiber tape are laid on the fuselage mold and cured in the high temperature and pressure autoclaves.  Boeing is still investigating how this issue has developed but it appears that they have a fix or are in the process of developing a fix.

Now this issue has huge implications for Everett and Charleston and the move of all final assembly work from Washington State to South Carolina.  The last Everett produced 787 will be a 787-9 for Hawaiian Airlines (ZE315, LN 1129).  

In a letter leaked to this blog, Lane Ballard, 787 program vice president and general manager and BSC site leader, says that Boeing has been "performing quality inspections related to fuselage skin flatness and shimming on all aspects of the 787 fuselage join. These inspections are taking place on yet-to-be-delivered airplanes" to ensure quality of the airplanes to be delivered. Boeing is also engaging in join verification requirements during in sequence assembly at each final assembly position.

However there is some big news concerning Everett's involvement in addressing the manufacturing issues amongst the fleet of built but yet to be delivered 787s that are being stored. Boeing is currently planning to simultaneously reduced the 787 build rate to 5/month and transfer all 787 final assembly to Charleston in March 2021. This means that there is freed up space at Everett to do the join verification and inspections as well as the rework of those affected joins thus while production has stopped at 40-26, there will be on going work to correct the manufacturing issues taking place at Everett's newly abandoned final assembly line. The join verification, inspection and rework to current in production 787s will also slow down final assembly in order that this work be done properly.

According to Ballard, Boeing South Carolina will also free up space in two final assembly positions in 88-30 for the inspections and rework: "All four of the current Everett 787 final assembly positions will become join verification positions, and two additional positions will continue to be utilized in the Butler building (building 45-12) at the Everett site. Additional join verification positions will be created in the South Carolina final assembly facility, while the balance will remain production positions." Boeing's "intent is to leverage additional resources in Mid Body, Aft Body and Everett Final Assembly to staff the respective join verification positions at their location. This join verification activity, however, will likely extend 787 work in Everett beyond the production consolidation plan." 

Ballard also added that "Airplanes that are stored until delivery, and airplanes currently in our production system, will go through this join verification process. Stored airplanes assembled in Everett will go to Everett for join inspection and delivery, and stored airplanes assembled in South Carolina will go to South Carolina for join inspection and delivery."

It remains to be seen how deliveries in 2021 will be impacted but currently Boeing has 88 787s that are in final assembly or in pre-delivery (including storage, and predelivery test flights or awaiting the start of test flights).  This back log will undoubtedly grow in the first quarter of 2021 but should start to shrink around March-April as the program breaks rate to 5 per month and the first few airplanes to complete the inspections and rework are delivered.

Boeing's ability to deliver 787s to customer's is also going to be impacted by the financial health of those customers themselves.  Covid-19 has hit the airlines extremely hard and I don't believe that some of these airlines will survive let alone be in a financially stable condition to accept new 787s.  Norwegian is one airline that comes to mind.  They have been in trouble even before the pandemic but the drastic reduction in revenues makes their viability to continue doubtful.  The airline recovery from Covid-19 as well as the 787 delivery skyline is dependent on the availability of the newly approved vaccines not just here in the United States but elsewhere around the world.  Transmission rates worldwide need to come down if intercontinental travel that utilizes the 787 is to recover.

Lastly, I want to add a word about the future of this blog and the spreadsheets I use to track the 787 program.  I know I've been away for over a year (due to demands of my regular job) but I plan on continuing to post 787 updates when I can but unfortunately I have lost several sources that have been invaluable to this blog and to posting updates to the 787 spreadsheets.  I'll try to update the spreadsheets as best as I can but unless I get new sources of solid information it will be difficult.  If there are any followers/readers of this blog out there who can supply me with information, I as well well as the followers of this blog will be most appreciative.  Please reach out to me.

787 Spreadsheets

Boeing looking to meet 3rd quarter 787 delivery target

	Number
Testing Complete	3
To be assembled in Everett	164
To be assembled in Charleston	116
Parts Arriving	6
Undergoing final assembly	10
Storage	0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work	0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work	4
Pre-Flight Prep	10
Production Testing	3
Non Customer Flight Tests	1
Ready for Delivery	5
Donation	3
Delivered	462
TOTAL	787

A little more than mid way through September Boeing has already delivered 8 Dreamliners including another early build aircraft to Ethiopian and 7 787-9s.  There are a further 4 787s that have completed their customer flights and should be delivered over the next week.  A thirteenth 787, an early build aircraft for Air Austral (LN 15, ZD001, F-OLRB) is still undergoing painting in Victorville, Ca. and was tentatively scheduled to be delivered at the end of the this month but I have no further information as of yet to it's final delivery date.  It may deliver in October.

If Boeing delivers the 4 airplanes that are ready for delivery, they would have made 12 787 deliveries in September, 36 for 3Q2016 and 104 for 2016 (they're at 100 total deliveries as of today, September 21, 2016).  Total deliveries are now at 463 and should achieve at least 467 by the end of the month.  That would leave 33 deliveries needed to reach 500 program deliveries, which is an average of 11 per month during the 4Q2016.  Boeing has tentatively scheduled 12 deliveries in October (13 is LN 15 is to be delivered in October and not September), 12 in November (including one early build 787-8) and 10 in December. That would imply 502 total deliveries by the end of 2016.

Boeing is already getting a a jump on flight testing for October deliveries.  They have already flown 5 airplanes that are to be delivered next month and are to conduct 6 more B-1 flights by the end of the month and one more in early October.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2016 Projected Operator Deliveries
2016 Projected Customer Deliveries
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 production and delivery update, March 10, 2015

Production

Boeing's 787 production continues at the 10/month pace so far in March but according to sources it appears that Boeing will start final assembly on 11 aircraft this month including 5 on the main Everett line.  Boeing is planning, later this year, to reduce 787 production on the surge assembly line (in 40-24) by 2 airplanes and allocate one each to the main lines in Everett and North Charleston.  This should take place around October.

Just recently Boeing started final assembly on the first 787-9 for Vietnam Airlines which should be delivered around May.  Another interesting development was a reallocation of 787-8 L/N 339. Initially this aircraft was going to go to Air India as ZA251 and would have been the carrier's 22nd 787-8.  This aircraft has been reallocated to American Airlines as ZA827 and will be the airlines' 11th 787 when it's delivered around September.  Thus American will take 13 not 12 787s while Air India will take 3 not 4 787s this year.  This reallocation lends strong evidence that Boeing and Air India maybe close to an agreement whereby Air India will take their remaining 787 orders (6 in total) as 787-9s.  A formal announcement has yet to be made but it appears to be close.  Air India does have financing in place for the remaining two deliveries.  One is to occur this month and the last will occur in June.

Flight Testing and Deliveries

Production flight testing seems to have slowed down during the month.  While 10 airplanes have been in various stages of flight testing Boeing does appear to be aiming for a large number of deliveries this month.  Boeing has already delivered 2 787s to Scoot and Virgin Atlantic but looks to try and deliver 13 more 787s this month for a total of 15.  I think a more realistic number will be 12 more deliveries by the end of March.  To complicate matters, I'm still wondering at the slow pace of deliveries to American Airlines.  The carriers' 3rd 787 made a trip to Victorville, Ca., a trip that the airlines' first 2 787s didn't conduct.  I can only speculate the reason but in the past Boeing has sent aircraft down to Victorville for 1) storage, 2) IFE/Seat/BFE installation, or 3) flight testing.  I think we can rule out 3 which leave only the first two.  I have no indication which one it is.  Additionally, there are three other 787s for American Airlines sitting on the tarmac at Everett though two are recent roll outs and have yet to be painted the third is painted and has been outside for quite sometime yet no B-1 flight has been conducted.

The 787 program is nearing 250 (249 delivered thus far) deliveries and should have delivered 25% of the total current 787 orders by the end of April.

Lastly, there has been a lot of questions (and confusion of costs related to the 787 program, namely deferred production costs and carry-loss forward and how it relates to the break even on the program. Vero Venia put together this great post describing it in great detail and I recommend the read.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

ZA002 News - ZA001 and ZA005 to fly back to Boeing Field

Boeing released a statement this morning updating the media on the fire on board ZA002 and giving some immediate plans. First off, the two 787s that are not at Boeing Field, ZA001 and ZA004 will be flown back to Boeing Field. Currently ZA001 is at Rapid City, SD where it was being re-fueled for a return to Boeing Field when the fire took place. Boeing elected to ground the airplane after the incident. ZA005 has been at Victorville, CA. for a few weeks undertaking NAMS (nautical air mile testing). It too will be flown back to Boeing Field today. Boeing cleared the flights with the FAA and no testing will be undertaken on these ferry flights to Seattle. The other 787s are already at Boeing Field except for ZA002 which is being repaired and ZA003 which is at Everett for ground tests.

On ZA002, Boeing has completed its inspection but not its investigation. They've collected all the data and have begun repairs to the aircraft. There was a some structural damage which Boeing says will be repaired using standard repair techniques that they have developed for the composites on the 787. The repair team will also replace the insulation and the failed power module.

Boeing has not yet established a timeline to complete the repairs or for when test flights will resume. They say they are getting closer to a root cause of the fire but have not yet shared this knowledge.

Boeing said the entire incident lasted only 90 seconds and the fire lasted 30 seconds. Boeing also said that the redundancies allowed the airplane to conclude the flight in a configuration that would have enabled it to fly to a diversion airport if the airplane was flying a typical revenue flight. The meaning of that statement is that the airplane systems worked as advertised (other than the failed power panel) and the safety systems and redundancies made sure that the airplane concluded the flight safely. This would have been the case if the airplane was over the middle of the Atlantic at 40,000 feet.

A local Seattle TV news station said that the pilots didn't declare an emergency until AFTER the 787 had landed in Laredo. It had been widely assumed that the emergency was declared while the airplane was on final approach into the airport.

King 5: Pilots Declared Fire Emergency after 787 landed

In light of the fire, the FAA has stopped certification activities except for ground tests. How long this suspension will last will depend on the nature of the incident and Boeing's ability to demonstrate that they have a fix and that it will not occur again.

FAA Hits Brakes on 787 Certification

Guy Norris has a posting on today news:

Guy Norris: 787 will today - briefly

Here's Boeing's statement:

Two Boeing 787 Dreamliners to Return to Seattle; Laredo Investigation Continues

EVERETT, Wash., Nov. 16, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- While the investigation into the incident onboard 787 Dreamliner ZA002 continues, Boeing has established a plan to fly two other aircraft, ZA001 and ZA005, back to Seattle from Rapid City, S.D., and Victorville, Calif. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has reviewed and approved the plans.

ZA001 was undergoing refueling in South Dakota when the incident on ZA002 occurred and the company decided to forgo additional flights. ZA005 was on remote deployment for testing in California.

The flights follow a series of inspections on the airplanes' aft electronics bays. No testing will be performed on the flights.

The team investigating the incident in Laredo has developed a detailed understanding of the ZA002 incident, though more work remains to complete the investigation. In addition to the information already released about the incident, data show that:

The total duration of the incident was less than 90 seconds.
The fire lasted less than 30 seconds.
The airplane concluded the event in a configuration that could have been sustained for the time required to return to an airport suitable for landing from any point in a typical 787 mission profile.


The team in Texas has completed inspection of ZA002 and has begun to
prepare to install a new power panel and new insulation material. The team also is repairing minor structural damage that occurred during the event. This damage will be addressed with standard repair techniques in the airplane structural repair manual. The team is currently evaluating the timeline for completion of the repair work.

The incident on ZA002 demonstrated many aspects of the safety and redundancy in the 787 design, which ensure that if events such as these occur, the airplane can continue safe flight and landing.

No decision has been reached on when flight testing of the 787 will resume. Before
that decision can be made, we must complete the investigation and assess whether any design changes are necessary. Until that time, Boeing cannot comment on the potential impact of this incident on the overall program schedule.

787 production continues

Meanwhile there will be line move in the 787 final assembly building today with the 26th 787 (ZA231) for Air India moving to the paint hangar at Everett.
The first 787 for Air India (ZA230) made it's first appearance being towed to the Boeing flightline at Everett. Flightblogger posted photos of the aircraft being towed to the flightline from the paint hangar. The line move makes room for the 30th 787 (ZA234) to start final assembly. The next 787 to enter final assembly after that will be ZA117 for ANA on Dec. 1st...two weeks from now.

Boeing Flying the Wings Off 787 and 747-8F

This past few days since the Farnborough Air Show ended has seen Boeing flying the wings off both the 787 and the 747-8F. The 787 test fleet racked a few first during this past weekend including ZA001 and ZA002 going over the 400 flight hour mark. the 787 test flight fleet surpassing the 40% mark for test flight hours and the 400th flight of the 787.

During Sunday all 5 test 787s were flying at one point or another and Boeing had added well over 65 test flight hours during the period starting from July 23rd to July 25th. Boeing will need to fly the 4 Rolls Royce powered 787s about 10 hours a day combined everyday until the end of November if they hope to deliver the first 787 to ANA by the end of the year.

So far Boeing has accumulated about 1,293 flight hours on the 787 though I think their total is missing one flight. Boeing is also almost half way through to certifying the Trent 1000 powered 787. That version of the 787 needs 2,430 flight hours and Boeing has accumulated a little over 1,200 flight hours on the Trent powered aircraft. The test flight program for the GEnx-1B engines is just getting started and Boeing has less than 90 hour accumulated on ZA005.

Boeing also kept the 747-8F flight crews busy during this weekend with RC 501, RC522 and RC 503 (3 of 4 test aircraft) all flying at one point during this weekend. I believe RC 521 is conducting ground tests in Victorville.

Boeing has cast some doubt on whether it can finish the test flight program and deliver both these airplanes by the end of the year though they are maintaining the guidance for deliveries to start by the end of 2010. If the current pace of test flights becomes a long term (4-5 months) trend within each of these programs, then Boeing is well on their way to start deliveries in December. Careful observation of the test flight program progress for both the 787 and the 747-8F will allow us to know how they're progressing.

Boeing restarts 787 part deliveries into Everett

As I had reported last week, Boeing will restart 787 final assembly on Monday, June 14th. This is reinforced with the restart of LCF flights bringing the required fuselage sections into Everett. Yesterday and LCF flew in the rear fuselage for the next 787 to be built...ZA177 (LN 23) for Japan Airlines and horizontal stabs for Air India's first 787, ZA230 (LN 25). Later this afternoon, the forward fuselage will be flown from Wichita to Everett. There should be a line move late this weekend to allow parts for the 23rd 787 to be located in the assembly tool in building 40-26.

Flight Test

ZA002 flew a 2 hour and 35 minute mission this morning (June 8th) out of Victorville. In completing this test flight, the 787 test fleet has completed over 30% of the required 3,100 test flight hours for the program. ZA005 continues its gauntlet testing ahead of a planned first flight on June 16th.

End of May 787 Update

Not too much to update here but what I lack in quantity I hopefully make up in quality!

787 flight testing slowed down this past weekend (Memorial Day Weekend) with only one airplane flying, ZA002. This airplane surpassed 250 flight hours this past weekend. ZA001 is swapping out it's Trent 1000 engines and is about midway through that exercise. It is not, as far as I have learned, a swap out of the Trent package "A" engines (which was what this aircraft has been flying with since December) with the improved package "B" engines. The fourth 787, ZA004 will receive the improved package "B" Trent 1000 in September. The package "B" engines is supposed to deliver a specific fuel consumption that is within 1% of what was promised to customers. These engines incorporates design improvements to get that fuel consumption close to what is contractually promised by Rolls Royce. ZA004 is receiving some APU updates and additional instrumentation and ZA003 was given the weekend off for the Holidays. The 787 test fleet has flown the most hours in the program during the past one month, logging over 330 hours spread across over 100 flights. The per flight utilization also went up to 3.2 hours per flight. Most of this is attributed to ZA004 performing Nautical Air Miles Testing over the eastern Pacific just west of the Baja Peninsula.

To date the 787 test fleet has accumulated over 880 flight test hours during more than 280 flights.

Coming up

So far so good with flight testing. ZA002 flew to Victorville this morning (June 1) and is joining ZA004 in flight test duties. The two airplanes will be testing independent of one another. ZA002 will undertaking NGS (nitrogen generating system) tests as well as some other small testing duties.

ZA005 is still scheduled to fly around June 16th and ZA006 will be flying around July 13th.

On the production front, look for LN 23 to start final assembly around June 14th. Boeing held up final assembly of 787s for one month to allow the supply chain to get caught up in work instead of sending the fuselage sections to Everett along with travelled work. Look for parts for this airplane to start arriving next week though some parts are already in for this airplane.

Lastly, I asked Boeing about sending the 787 to the Farnborough Air Show. They said no decision has been made yet and it will depend on the progress of flight testing. They anticipate that a decision should be made closer to the time of the air show in mid July.

Two 787s in Victorville

The second 787, ZA002 is flying to Victorville, Ca. to join it's sistership in flight testing from Southern California. It's due to arrive at the Southern California Logistics Airport at around 10:20 PT (1:20 ET). No word yet on the what testing will be done at Victorville yet or if ZA004 will be moving back to Boeing Field. It's the second trip for this airplane to the airport outside of LA.

Flightaware track for ZA002

ZA002 heading to Colorado Springs Airport today

As I had reported earlier this month, Boeing is sending the 787 (ZA002) to Colorado Springs Airport for engine tests. The tests are LRTO testing on the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 engines. It should be there for a few days. Boeing had planned to send ZA004 but that aircraft is deep in long duration certification testing in Victorville.

Flightaware posting for ZA002

ZA004 flies to Victorville with FAA on board

The start of the 787 certification with the FAA is underway. ZA004 flew today from Boeing Field to Victorville with FAA inspectors aboard. They'll be flying during Sunday and Monday at least with the FAA on board down in California as part of the certification test flights.

Earlier, ZA004 took off at 9:40AM Pacific Time but Matt Cawby reported that it returned 25 minutes later due to a transponder issue. It was presumably fixed as ZA004 took off again at about 12:18PM Pacific Time and landed at around 1:33 PM. It took off for the last time at 4:18Pm and landed at Victorville at about 6:02 PM.

You can see Liz Matzelle's photos from today's flight activity at Boeing Field here.
Thanks to Liz Matzelle and Matt Cawby for helping to fill in some of the blanks from today's activities!

Flightblogger 787 Flight Test Review

Flightblogger has put up an update along with pictures and video of the current 787 progress to date. In it he describes what has been done and what is in store for the immediate future with the 6 test airplanes as summarized below:

ZA001 : Completed flutter testing and is now commencing high speed stability and control testing.
ZA002 : Still in Victorville after completing ground effects testing but is due to return to Boeing Field tomorrow, March 23rd.
ZA004 : Will finish up flight testing of the version 5.5 service ready software today, March 22nd and then will go into a period of extended ground testing
ZA003 : Going through a planned post first flight layup. I'm not sure when she's due to fly again.
ZA005 and ZA006 : Still at Everett Field with ZA005 due to be moved to paint shop soon for aqueous wash of it's fuel tanks. Word I've gotten is that ZA005 won't be in the air until around May 8th and ZA006 won't fly until around June 4th. These are estimates by the way.

Flightblogger: 787 Flight Testing Month 3 (Plus 7)

Lastly, there's a great article taking a look inside the 787 telemetry room at Boeing Field. The article is authored by Jason Paur of Autopia. This is great for those of us who don't really understand the goings on of flight testing of a new commercial airliner.

A Look Inside the Brains of Boeing 787 Flight Test

747 and 787 flight test update

So a couple of things coming out.

ZA003 first flight window opens at 10AM PST on Sunday March 14th (I'll be away skiing so I won't be able to cover it).

ZA004 was expected to return to flight tests this week but now it's been pushed back due to more ground tests at Boeing Field. Still no word on when it'll return to the air. As you may recall, after first flight ZA004 is spending some time on the ground for flight test equipment installation and calibration as well as for further ground tests. Boeing really needs to get this airplane back in the air soon given the testing that has been assigned to it.

Lastly, Randy Tinseth got up two nice posts on it, one on ZA002 and the testing at Victorville as well as one one the747-8 flight testing. The last two 747-8F will both be in the air in the next five days.

Randy's Journal: Hotel California

Randy's Journal: 13 flights, 33 hours

Flightblogger: ZA002 going to So. Cal.

Flightblogger is reporting that ZA002 will fly to Victorville, Ca. this week as part of the 787 flight test program. The Southern California Logistics Airport (SCLA) is in the high desert of southern California and has a a long 15,000 ft runway and dry weather which would be ideal for Boeing to conduct flight testing.

It is not known when or how long ZA002 will beat Victorville or if other 787s will be joining it but the certification test program has the 787 test fleet making trips away from Boeing Field at times.

Flightblogger : Roadtrip! 787 heading for Victorville this week.

Through today's test flights, the 787 fleet has racked up slightly over 250 test flight hours across the three plane test fleet. ZA00 s expected to return to the air very soon (possibly by the end of this coming week) and ZA003 is expected to take to the air for the first time around March 14th. ZA005 should follow soon after that.

Continuing the roadtrip theme, Guy Norris at Aviation Week is reporting on his blog that Boeing is seriously considering sending the 787 AND the 747-8 to the Farnborough Air Show this summer. It would the first time since 1982 that two new Being Commercial Air products would be featured at the air show. Of course, all this hinges on how well the test program goes for both these airplanes.

Guy Norris: Show Time!

Guy also reports on the upcoming trip for ZA002 to California as well as updates on the rest of the 787 flight test fleet. Of note is that ZA003 will have it's two day gauntlet test this week. This would corroborate a flight test date of March 14 for this airplane.

Guy Norris : 787 Heads South