With many of the 787s that are in pre-delivery having gone through their first (B-1) flights. I am going to take a moment and speculate on delivery dates for these airplanes. These are my own assumptions assuming that these aircraft will have to fly the minimal number of acceptance flights. For now I'm assuming that these planes will deliver between 21 and 24 days after each B-1 flight though there are exceptions (as in Air India, Chinese carriers, and LOT). This also assumes that there aren't any issues that would need to be corrected and re-tested in subsequent test flights prior to delivery.
Here's my projected delivery dates for this month:
ZA289 (LN 55, N45905) United Airlines - 12/12/12 - 12/15/12
ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCK) Qatar Airways - 12/15/12 - 12/18/12
ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) Qatar Airways - 12/24/12 - 12/27/12
ZA510 (LN 59, JA817A) ANA - 12/26/12 - 12/29/12
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) ANA - 12/27/12 - 12/30/12
ZA287 (LN 52, N27903) United Airlines - 12/28/12 - 12/31/12
ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) JAL - 12/28/12 - 12/31/12
Again this is my own speculation but it's based on previous and recent deliveries of the 787. These dates are always in flux and can change easily so I trust the reader will not hold me responsible if all the actual delivery dates turn out to be something totally different.
Lastly, these numbers could change as Boeing can deliver 787s to Air India (2), China Southern (1) and even LOT Polish (1). Boeing is making a huge effort to try and delivery these aircraft within the next 24 days and the way we can accurately tell is the flight activity of each of these airplanes over the next 2-3 weeks.
Lastly, the pilots union at American Airlines has ratified the new labor agreement with AMR today. This could be significant for 787-9 order that AA intends to finalize with Boeing as the order is dependent on AMR agreeing to a new contract with their pilots. Now this was all before AMR entered Chapter 11 so the bankruptcy judge and AMR's creditors may have something to say about this order and whether it can proceed. Additionally, a report emerged this evening that US Airways had submitted a bid for American in November. What effect an AMR-US Airways merger would have on the MoU for the 42 787-9 American intends to finalize is unclear though US Airways does have an outstanding order for 18 A350-800 and 4 A350-900 by Airbus. Boeing can deliver the 787-9 to American starting in 2014 (theoretically) which is much earlier than US Airways can get either variant of the A350 that they have ordered. Also a combined company may be opened to operating a mixed Boeing-Airbus fleet as with Delta/Northwest and United/Continental. A US Airways/American tie up would retain the American name.
Showing posts with label A350-800. Show all posts
Showing posts with label A350-800. Show all posts
Friday, December 7, 2012
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Aspire Aviation: 787-8 still overweight, 787-9 is not
In a wide ranging article, Aspire Aviation revealed today several newsworthy aspects of the 787s program and the future of the variants of the base 787-8 aircraft.
First off the article addresses the 787-8 status. While the program is now well into production and delivery of the base 787-8 model, Boeing is planning to hit the 5/month milestone on November. It is hoped that the ramp up to 7/month will occur in March/April 2013. Assuming that Boeing is producing 5 787 for the first 5 months of 2013 and 7 for the last 7 months (there's a lag between the increased production rate and delivery of those airplanes at the increase rate thus I'm assuming that the 10/rate airplanes won't be delivered until January 2014) Boeing can deliver 84 787s not including 787s from the EMC.
The weight of the787-8 is still an issue with the current production block still at about 4 tonnes overweight according to Aspire's sources. It was hoped that by the 90th aircraft (LN 90) that the weight would be down to the original spec weight but this appears to have slipped. It is unknown when Boeing will achieve the original spec weight though the culprit seems to be a shortage of parts that are weight optimized for both the 787-9 and the 787-8.
Speaking of the 787-9 this variant looks to be doing extremely well from a weight and development point of view. The word is that the first 787-9s will achieve weight targets set by Boeing with further production blocks coming in underweight by around 2%. This is all a result of the testing done on the 787-8 and understanding what was over-engineered. At some point there will be weight savings that will be put back into the 787-8 but it does appear it will take a while. ZB001 (LN 126) will be the first 787-9 that is to be assembled and it does look like that this should take place starting around February or March. What is unclear at this point is how many 787-9s will be part of the testing and certification program. I don't think it will be 6 but perhaps 2-3 airframes. Already Boeing suppliers are producing some of the fuselage sections of the 787-9.
Aspire's report also touched upon the 787-10X which is now rumored to be targeted for an authority to offer by the Boeing Board of Directors as early as this month. The 2nd stretch variant will build upon the 787-9 using the same wing and able to fit 323 passengers in a 3 class layout. This model along with the 787-9 can effectively kill the Airbus A330-200 and A330-300 while also severely hurting the sales of the A350-800, A350-900 and even the A350-1000 all of which are under severe schedule pressure as it is. There are numerous European, Asian and Middle Eastern customers that are salivating at the thought of the 787-10 and I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing has a few surprise orders in hand by the end of the year for this model if it has the authority to offer. Aspire's speculates that with a launch late this year, Boeing will have a firm configuration by the end of 2nd quarter of 2014. roll out of the test aircraft in 2017 and EIS in 2018/2019 though I would think that with a rollout in 2017 Boeing should have the ability to achieve EIS in 2018 at the latest since it is a straight forward stretch variant. It shouldn't take 2 years to test and certify a simple stretch variant of the 787-9.
First off the article addresses the 787-8 status. While the program is now well into production and delivery of the base 787-8 model, Boeing is planning to hit the 5/month milestone on November. It is hoped that the ramp up to 7/month will occur in March/April 2013. Assuming that Boeing is producing 5 787 for the first 5 months of 2013 and 7 for the last 7 months (there's a lag between the increased production rate and delivery of those airplanes at the increase rate thus I'm assuming that the 10/rate airplanes won't be delivered until January 2014) Boeing can deliver 84 787s not including 787s from the EMC.
The weight of the787-8 is still an issue with the current production block still at about 4 tonnes overweight according to Aspire's sources. It was hoped that by the 90th aircraft (LN 90) that the weight would be down to the original spec weight but this appears to have slipped. It is unknown when Boeing will achieve the original spec weight though the culprit seems to be a shortage of parts that are weight optimized for both the 787-9 and the 787-8.
Speaking of the 787-9 this variant looks to be doing extremely well from a weight and development point of view. The word is that the first 787-9s will achieve weight targets set by Boeing with further production blocks coming in underweight by around 2%. This is all a result of the testing done on the 787-8 and understanding what was over-engineered. At some point there will be weight savings that will be put back into the 787-8 but it does appear it will take a while. ZB001 (LN 126) will be the first 787-9 that is to be assembled and it does look like that this should take place starting around February or March. What is unclear at this point is how many 787-9s will be part of the testing and certification program. I don't think it will be 6 but perhaps 2-3 airframes. Already Boeing suppliers are producing some of the fuselage sections of the 787-9.
Aspire's report also touched upon the 787-10X which is now rumored to be targeted for an authority to offer by the Boeing Board of Directors as early as this month. The 2nd stretch variant will build upon the 787-9 using the same wing and able to fit 323 passengers in a 3 class layout. This model along with the 787-9 can effectively kill the Airbus A330-200 and A330-300 while also severely hurting the sales of the A350-800, A350-900 and even the A350-1000 all of which are under severe schedule pressure as it is. There are numerous European, Asian and Middle Eastern customers that are salivating at the thought of the 787-10 and I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing has a few surprise orders in hand by the end of the year for this model if it has the authority to offer. Aspire's speculates that with a launch late this year, Boeing will have a firm configuration by the end of 2nd quarter of 2014. roll out of the test aircraft in 2017 and EIS in 2018/2019 though I would think that with a rollout in 2017 Boeing should have the ability to achieve EIS in 2018 at the latest since it is a straight forward stretch variant. It shouldn't take 2 years to test and certify a simple stretch variant of the 787-9.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Boeing Complete Firm Configuration of 787-9
Boeing Photo
s
UPDATE: A source has told me that Boeing has planned a tentative roll out date for the first 787-9 for February 2012.
In a press release this morning, Boeing confirmed that they have finalized the 787-9 configuration which will allow Boeing and partner engineers to begin detail design work and release those plans for manufacture of parts.
The 787-9 is the stretch version of the 787-8 though they are keeping the same wing as the 787-8 thus allowing for weight savings. The 787-9 is looking at a range of about 8000 nm to 8500 nm though that is said to be improving as Boeing is finding ways to save weight in the 787-9 (some of these design changes are planned to be incorporated into the 787-8 at later stages). The aircraft should seat about 250 to 290 passengers. The follwoing article by Saj Ahmad goeing into a nice analysis of the 787-9:
On the 9 by Saj Ahmad
Boeing is planning to have the 787-9 compete head on with the A350-800 (as well as the A300-300) but sources have told me that they feel that the 787-9 would be extremely competitive against the A350-900 which will be Airbus' first A350 off to be delivered. Right now both the A350-900 and the 787-9 are planned for first delivery in 2013 though some sources are telling me to expect further delays to the A350. If the 787-9 can meet or even exceed weight expectations as well as getting SFC (specific fuel consumption) improvements from both engines, then the 787-9 can be a true economic engine for many of the airlines that order it.
Here's video and a report Boeing put out about the 787-9 this morning:
Boeing Finalizes Configuration for Newest Dreamliner
Here's the test of Boeing's press release for the 787-9 configuration:
sUPDATE: A source has told me that Boeing has planned a tentative roll out date for the first 787-9 for February 2012.
In a press release this morning, Boeing confirmed that they have finalized the 787-9 configuration which will allow Boeing and partner engineers to begin detail design work and release those plans for manufacture of parts.The 787-9 is the stretch version of the 787-8 though they are keeping the same wing as the 787-8 thus allowing for weight savings. The 787-9 is looking at a range of about 8000 nm to 8500 nm though that is said to be improving as Boeing is finding ways to save weight in the 787-9 (some of these design changes are planned to be incorporated into the 787-8 at later stages). The aircraft should seat about 250 to 290 passengers. The follwoing article by Saj Ahmad goeing into a nice analysis of the 787-9:
On the 9 by Saj Ahmad
Boeing is planning to have the 787-9 compete head on with the A350-800 (as well as the A300-300) but sources have told me that they feel that the 787-9 would be extremely competitive against the A350-900 which will be Airbus' first A350 off to be delivered. Right now both the A350-900 and the 787-9 are planned for first delivery in 2013 though some sources are telling me to expect further delays to the A350. If the 787-9 can meet or even exceed weight expectations as well as getting SFC (specific fuel consumption) improvements from both engines, then the 787-9 can be a true economic engine for many of the airlines that order it.
Here's video and a report Boeing put out about the 787-9 this morning:
Boeing Finalizes Configuration for Newest Dreamliner
Here's the test of Boeing's press release for the 787-9 configuration:
Boeing Completes Firm Configuration of 787-9 Dreamliner
EVERETT, Wash., July 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) today announced the completion of firm configuration for the 787-9 Dreamliner. Boeing reached this milestone after years of collaboration with airline customers and partners to determine the optimal configuration for the new stretch version of the Dreamliner.
"Firm configuration means the airplane's structural, propulsion and systems architectures are defined and not changing," said Mark Jenks, vice president of 787-9 development, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
Boeing has completed the trade studies required to finalize the airplane's overall capability and basic design, allowing the airplane manufacturer and its suppliers to begin detailed design of parts, assemblies and other systems for the 787-9. As detailed designs are completed and released, production can begin. The first 787-9 delivery is scheduled for late 2013.
"We have a disciplined process in place to ensure we have completed all of the requirements for the development stage of the program," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "The team has done a fantastic job to get us through this important milestone."
The 787-9 is the second member of the 787 family. A slightly bigger version of the 787-8, the airplane will seat 250-290 passengers, 16 percent more than the 787-8. The 787-9 will have a range of 8,000 to 8,500 nautical miles (14,800 to 15,750 km).
"We have been working closely with our customers for years to reach this milestone," said Mark Jenks, vice president of 787-9 development. "We are excited about the performance and capability this airplane will offer our customers."
The 787 Dreamliner is an all-new twinjet designed to meet the needs of airlines around the world in providing nonstop service between midsize cities with new levels of efficiency. The airplane will bring improved levels of comfort to passengers with larger windows, bigger baggage bins and advances in the cabin environment, including lower cabin altitude, higher humidity and cleaner air. Delivery of the first 787 is planned for the fourth quarter of 2010.
Friday, May 7, 2010
777NG possiblities
One of the most important decision facing Boeing is what to do to respond to the A350. Specifically, what will Boeing's answer be to the A350-900 and the A350-1000. The A350-800 is sized for the 787-9 market (both carry roughly the same number of passengers).
Airbus is targeting the 777-200 sized market with the A350-900 and the 777-300ER market with the A350-1000. Boeing is waiting to see what Airbus does with these two models before deciding on a future improvements on the 777 or an entirely new model in this class.
From my discussions it seems that Boeing is leaning towards a package of extensive improvements of the 777 line. These improvements may include weight saving measures throughout the aircraft, a new composite wing, an external re-profiling of the exterior lines and improvements in the GE90 using experienced gleaned from the GEnx program. The last proposed improvement is addressed by Saj Ahmad in an article he wrote:
Engines May Hold Key to Future 777
At the end of the day it does seem that Boeing is in the driver's seat because it can respond to the threat of the A350 with a lot of flexibility.
Airbus is targeting the 777-200 sized market with the A350-900 and the 777-300ER market with the A350-1000. Boeing is waiting to see what Airbus does with these two models before deciding on a future improvements on the 777 or an entirely new model in this class.
From my discussions it seems that Boeing is leaning towards a package of extensive improvements of the 777 line. These improvements may include weight saving measures throughout the aircraft, a new composite wing, an external re-profiling of the exterior lines and improvements in the GE90 using experienced gleaned from the GEnx program. The last proposed improvement is addressed by Saj Ahmad in an article he wrote:
Engines May Hold Key to Future 777
At the end of the day it does seem that Boeing is in the driver's seat because it can respond to the threat of the A350 with a lot of flexibility.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
787 Landing Gear Test and new 787 order coming soon?
Image Courtesy of BoeingDreamliner 1 started landing gear tests 3 days ago (August 9th). This is a major milestone confirming that the electrical, hydraulics and avionics systems are working together. Initially each gear (left main, right main and nose) were tested individually and then all were tested together. The gear swing tests is top replicate how the landing gear would work as if in actual flight. In order to do this, Boeing jacked the airplane off its landing gear. These tests will continue for the next few days presumably also testing the opening and closing of the landing gear doors as well.
Jon Ostrower is also reporting that Boeing will have a video available of the gear tests available soon. I'll try to post it here (once I've figured out how to do that)!
UPDATE: The video and more pics of the gear swing is here. Boeing even got some amazing footage inside the wheel well as the gear is retracted into it.
New 787 Customer?
In other 787 news, I learned from multiple sources that Boeing will reveal a buyer of 23 787-8s as early as next month. Boeing booked a 23 order from an unidentified customer back in January of this year. Since this order was booked, speculation has been rampant on the web that it must be a current customer who has already purchased the 787 and has a large number of options that they can exercised. Air Canada (who has 23 unexercised 787 options) became the prime suspect. The buyer was not revealed at Farnborough (I guess they didn't want to compete with all the other news coming out of the air show) but I have since learned that this order may be for a new 787 operator. I've also learned from sources that the customer is NOT a North American or European customer. One source told me that it probably is a company that is not subject to regulatory fillings where large material purchases such as 23 787 would have to be disclosed.
So who can it be? Well it can be an Asian, Middle Eastern or South American customer in my opinion. Those are the only regions of the world that have airlines that don't have to reveal this purchase in regulatory filings in addition to being able to afford to buy a large number of widebody aircraft and who has not previously purchased the 787. From these regions we could probably look at airlines like Thai, TAM, Emirates, Garuda Indonesia, Malaysian or even Iraq Airways (with the help of US govt. loans or the $49 bn surplus the Iraqi govt. has). One source speculated to me that TAM is going to take delivery of 4 777-300ERs in September and wouldn't the delivery ceremony make a great opportunity to announce a TAM order for the 787. This is a company that has already bought 12 A350-800, 10 A350-900 and 15 A330-200. The 787-8 would be a great size for TAM for which Airbus' only competitor in the 787-8 size category is the A330-200 (the A350-800 competes with the 787-9 and the A350-900 would compete with the 777-200ER and the proposed 787-10) and the 767-300ERs that TAM recently leased out.
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