May 787 Delivery Predictions

Here is a list of 787s that I expect to be delivered during the remainder of this month. Please note that the deliveries to the Chinese carriers are contingent upon the aircraft obtaining its airworthiness certificate from Chinese civil aviation authorities but booth China Southern and Hainan have said they expect their deliveries later this month.

Air India - ZA241 (LN 72, VT-ANM) - so far had 5 test flights and may have one more before being delivered

Hainan - 2 787 from Charleston - ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) & ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) pending certification and customer test flights

China Southern - ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) pending certification and customer test flights

JAL - ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) had three test flights thus far, may have one more to do

Thomson Airways - ZA317 (LN 92, G-TUIA) - Thomson's first 787 has had 5 test flights thus far.

These six together with the two already delivered would allow Boeing to claim 8 deliveries in May which would be a very healthy re-start to deliveries after three and a half months of growing inventory at Everett and Charleston.

 

Upcoming 787 deliveries

Now that the battery modifications are underway Boeing is gearing up to re-start deliveries to customers.

First up will be deliveries to ANA and LOT Polish Airlines.  ANA (ZA512, LN 83, JA818A) should deliver tomorrow 5/13/2013 (flyaway the next day) while LOT Polish (ZA272, LN 86, SP-LRC) should deliver the following day on 5/14/2013 (flyaway the next day).

Thomson Airways is expecting their first 787 (ZA317, LN 92, G-TUIA) on 5/30/2013 with the second (ZA318, LN 94, G-TUIB) to follow on 6/2/2013.

JAL can also take delivery this week of ZA184 (LN 89, JA830J) though I haven't heard about a delivery date.

Hainan and China Southern could take their first 787s as early as the end of this month but that could easily slip into June since the delivery is waiting on Chinese aviation authorities certifying the 787 for use by Chinese carriers.

British Airways is looking to take delivery within the next few weeks but it does look like that they'll pick up their first 787s next month.

 

Big week for the 787 program

Boeing saw two 787 customer fly aways this week as mostly positive news about the program reinforced the view that the program is on a solid course to recover and to become profitable. 
First came news (that this blog revealed in an earlier post) that Boeing is producing the 787 at 5/month including one per month from Boeing Charleston.

This further reinforces the view that Boeing is on a solid track to achieve the planned production rate of 7/month in Everett and 3/month in North Charleston. ZA511 (LN 83, JA818A) was rolled out last week and represents the first aircraft built at the 5/month rate.

Boeing's Board of Directors gave a soft ok to Boeing's Commercial Sales staff to begin discussions with customers regarding the 787-10 which is a double stretch of the baseline 787-8.  This aircraft, which will compete head on with Airbus' A330-300 and A350-900 and will be marketed as a 777-200 replacement, has generated a lot of positive feedback.  Qatar Airways' is reportedly in negotiations to convert some of the 30 firm and 30 options that they have on the 787-8 into the 787-10.  Since the 787-10 is not due to be delivered around 2018 or 2019, conversions will allow Boeing to free up short term delivery slots for 787-8 and 787-9 thus helping sales of those versions of the Dreamliner.  Given that the program needs sales of over 1000 787s to achieve breakeven, the 787-10 will certainly help Boeing attain that as it is rumored that Boeing can sell as many as 500 787-10s.  Boeing doesn't have the full ATO (Authority To Offer) but it is widely rumored that this should happen very very shortly, (as soon as this month) which leads me to believe that Boeing will probably have one or two launch customers lined up with an MoU.  These sales won't be posted as firm until next year however.  Other potential customers include British Airways, Singapore Airlines, Ethihad, Air France, Lufthansa, American Airlines, United Airlines, and any carrier with a 777-200 or an A330-300.

The not so good news is that Gulf Air is reducing the number of 787s they have on order.  The order book once had 24 787ss for the Middle Eastern carrier which has been reduced to the current 16 and may go as low as 12.

Boeing had official handovers of 787s this week to Qatar Airways and LOT Polish Airlines.  Both aircraft were contractually delivered earlier so these "deliveries" were ceremonial (read: for the media) in nature as was the fly aways to the airlines' respective home bases.

Looking ahead Boeing will load another 787 tomorrow into position 1 on the surge line.  This will be ZA317 (LN 92, G-TUIA) for Thomson Airways, the British charter airline.  It'll be the first 787 delivered to a British carrier but it certainly won't be the only British carrier to receive the 787 in 2013.  Boeing will push out ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) for Japan Airlines.  This aircraft should be delivered by the end of December to the Japanese carrier.

In terms of deliveries, there are currently 5 787s that are ready to be delivered but two of them are for Air India and given the precarious state of the bridge financing needed to pay for the deliveries, it is highly unlikely that they will be delivered anytime soon but Boeing has prepared them for delivery.  There are one each for Untied Airlines, Qatar and Ethiopian that are ready.  According to my sources, Qatar should take their third 787 next week, Ethiopian will take their fourth later this week and Untied should follow with their third late next week.  There are several more that are preparing to fly or are in the middle of Boeing/customer test flights.  LAN's third had its B-1 flight which was cut short due to a squawk that developed 20 minutes into the flight. Matt Caby reported that the issue was in the (air conditioning) packs. One 787 each for Qatar and United should be flying very soon though expect their deliveries to occur around December if the B-1 flights are not performed this week.  ANA's 17th aircraft is on the flightline but probably won't fly until the end of this month at the earliest. 

Boeing has the potential to deliver at least 3 more 787s this month in addition to the 2 already delivered but if Air India gets its act together then we can see two more 787s delivered this month for a total of 7.  Right now 5 is more realistic for a delivery number in November.

Boeing 787 firing order updated

I've been able to update the firing order for the 787. Not too much of a surprise but two new customers will be getting aircraft from this batch including the first lessor, ILFC.  Here's the round up but please keep in mind that this firing order can change.

Charleston
The Charleston plant will be building 3 Dreamliners including one  for Air India (ZA243) and 2 for China Southern (ZA384 and ZA385).  These are existing customers.

Everett
With the surge line now operational we'll be seeing an increase in output from Everett.  First delivery customers are ILFC (being leased to Aeromexico) (ZA560) and Thomson Airways (ZA317) and (ZA318).  Current customers include China Southern (ZA383), ANA (ZA513), Japan Airlines (ZA185), and Qatar Airways (ZA465).

In the meantime two more 787s have gone into the paint Hangar including the first 787 for LOT Polish Airlines, ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) and the 4th 787 for Ethiopian ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP).

Another reason why Boeing will deliver 50 787s this year

Ok so I'm in the midst of having an email conversation with Saj Ahmad over at Strategic Aero about 787 deliveries when I realize (the light bulb does go off sometimes) that there is another rational for believing that Boeing can reach 50 787 deliveries this year.  It all has to do with what we know about deliveries in January 2013.

We do know that Thomson Airways is to get its first 787 ZA317 (LN92) in January 2013. We can assume that Boeing will deliver airplanes 66 to let say 90 by December 2012 (I'm assuming 2013 deliveries will start with LN 91).  That is 25 airframes right there that will go from assembly line to flight line, that is 25 787s that will not have to spend time in change incorporation.  Boeing has already delivered 8 787s this year.  So we are already at 33 787s for 2012 and we have not even touched the undelivered 787s that are sitting around Paine Field trying to finish change incorporation.

So we do know that of those 48 remaining 787s that have yet to finish assembly and change incorporation are airplanes for Air India, Qatar Airways, LAN, ANA, JAL, LOT, China Southern, Royal Air Maroc, Ethiopian Airlines and United.  These airplanes will receive at least one if not more of the 787s this year that will be undergoing change incorporation.  That is at least 10 787 deliveries from the 787 inventory at Paine.  We do know that Air India, Qatar, ANA and United will receive more than 1 but we can also add JAL and China Southern to that list (all these come from the LN 7 to LN 65 lot of 787s).  That's 6 more 787s for total of 16 coming from 787 WIP.  We also know that Air India is to receive  4 787s this year from the Charleston plant so we should add three more to the total and that gets you 19 787 deliveries from the pre-LN 66 lot of airplanes.  Thus the math is as follows:

  8 - 787 delivered so far
25 - delivery of LN 66 to LN 90 to be made in 2012
19 - delivery of 787 WIP (defined as LN 7 to LN 65 that have not yet been delivered, this is currently a total of 48 airframes).

8+25+19 = 52.

Simple, isn't it? Now we can probably added a few more for carriers like RAM, LAN, Air India, China Southern, United, Ethiopian and ANA for this year but I am unsure about how far they have to go for change incorporation.  The upshot is that Boeing is very conservative with their 787 delivery numbers for 2012.

787 production update - May 3, 2012

787 production is starting to get interesting as there will be another line move tonight at Everett.  Boeing will push out ZA462 (LN62 for Qatar Airways) allowing the four positions to be occupied by airplanes 63, 64, 66 and 67.  The later two are planes that should not have to go through any change incorporation and will go direct from the assembly line to the flight line at Everett.  The main fuselage for airplane 67 should have been delivered last Friday night after Boeing had pushed out the first 787 to be built at Boeing Charleston.  That 787, ZA237 (LN46) is on its way to finishing the 96 assembly tasks that are left before entering gauntlet testing and first flight which is projected to take place between May 18 and May 5th.  Delivery to Air India should take place by June 30th.  Also I got confirmation that ZA239 (LN 60) and ZA240 (LN65) are both for Air India and both are being assembled at Boeing Charleston.

In other production news, I got wind of Thomson Airways deliveries of their first 3 787s.  The first airplane for Thomson will be ZA317 (LN92) which should start assembly late this year for delivery in January 2013.  This will be followed by ZA318 in February 2013 and ZA319 in March 2013.  The first and third airplanes will be based in Manchester while the second airplane will be based out of Gatwick all to support training and EIS of the company's 787.  These airplanes will carry 291 passengers of which 47 will be premium seating in 38 inch pitch seating while there will be 244 in economy in 36 and 33 inch pitch seats.

As far as deliveries this month, I fully expect 1-2 787 for ANA and 2  airplanes for Air India.

LAstly, I came across some interesting analysis with regards to deliveries of the 747-8 and 787s this year.  It is estimated that Boeing will have built, through the end of this year about 50 747-8 airplanes (F and I).  Of those 50, 9 were delivered last year leaving 41 potentially to be delivered this year.  Of those 41, 3 were for Atlas Air Cargo which they have stated that they will not take...that brings the number of deliverable aircraft to 38 for 2012.  However this number includes test airplanes that have yet to under go refurbishment including 2 for Cathay Pacific Airways and the second 747-8F built which is for NCA.  That brings the number down to 35 747-8 aircraft.  If Boeing is projecting between 70 to 85 747s and 787s to be delivered by the end of this year that means that Boeing can be in a position to deliver between 35 and 50 787s.  This is entirely possible as is starting to produce 787s that will go straight from the production line to the flight line and into testing.