Wednesday, August 16, 2017

787 Mid Month Review for August 2017

Number
Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett156
To be assembled in Charleston120
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Pre-Flight Prep12
Production Testing4
Non Customer Flight Tests4
Ready for Delivery6
Donation3
Delivered580
TOTAL902


As the summer is drawing to a close, Boeing continues 787 deliveries and production at 12 per month thus there is an absence of the usual summer time slow down probably to make up for the slow down in production bought on by the introduction of the 787-10.  In the past two plus weeks Boeing has delivered 3 787 (all -9s) and have 9 more being readied for delivery by the end of this month.  6 of the 9 already have had their customer flights while the other three have had their first flights.  El Al's first 787-9 should be delivered around Friday, August 18th.  Air India should be receiving 2 more 787-8s as well leaving one more left on their order of 27 Dreamliners.

Production wise, Boeing has rolled out 7 airplanes thus far and started final assembly on another 7. Among the aircraft that should roll out over the next two weeks will be QANTAS' first 787-9.  This airplane should be on the 40-51 Ramp in about 1 week.  Air India's last 787-8 should also roll out by the end of the month.

In 787-10 testing, Boeing has racked up over 525 flight test hours with ZC001 doing most of the heavy lifting in support of certification followed by ZC036 and then ZC002.  The aforementioned ZC001 is currently in Victorville, Ca. while ZC036 is still in Seattle and ZC002 is in Charleston.  Boeing should begin final assembly on the ZC003 early next month.  This is the first -10 that will be delivered to a customer (Singapore Airlines).  I fully expect that this aircraft will also do some flight test activities (functionality and reliability testing).  This would follow what Boeing did for the 787-9 program where they had 5 airplanes performing flight tests including 2 production aircraft in addition to the 3 flight test airplanes.  I expect that ZC037 which will be a production 787-10 with GE engines to perform a similar function around the middle of next year.

Saturday, July 29, 2017

787 July 2017 Update


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Number
Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett161
To be assembled in Charleston124
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Pre-Flight Prep12
Production Testing3
Non Customer Flight Tests4
Ready for Delivery1
Donation3
Delivered577
TOTAL902

Boeing's 787 deliveries for July came in a 12 aircraft (2 x 787-8 and 10 x 787-9).  For the year Boeing has delivered 77 Dreamliners (18 x 787-8 and 59 x 787-9) and 577 airplanes since program deliveries began in September 2011 (342 x 787-8 and 235 x 787-9).

Notable deliveries included ANA's 60th 787 and LOT Polish Airlines last 787-8 that they had on order.  They are expected to take several 787-9 on lease from a couple different lessors.



All in all a decent month for 787 deliveries as well as 787 production as Boeing rolled out 12 787s while starting assembly on 13 airplanes.  of the 13 airplanes that started final assembly in July, 5 were rolled out before month end.  Everett is averaging about 17 days for assembly while Charleston is around 22 days. The only notable 787s that was rolled out is the first 787-9 for Thai International Airways.  They should be taking that aircraft leased from AerCap around mid September.  The other is Air India's penultimate 787-8 which should deliver around middle to late August.

787-10 testing continued during July as the three aircraft test fleet flew over 90 hours in July.  The total accumulated flight hours stands at over 460 after four full months of testing.  Boeing will start final assembly on the first production 787-10 in late August or early September. This aircraft ZC003 (LN 622) will eventually be delivered to Singapore Airlines and will probably be used for functionality and reliability (F & R) testing towards the end of the year.

Earlier this week Boeing released their 2Q2017 financial results.  No real new news in terms of the prospects of increasing the rate on the 787 to 14/month from the current 12.  There are still numerous sales campaign on going that would hopefully lead to an increase in rate in the next 2 or 3 years.  Boeing also reported that deferred production cost dropped by a huge $530 million to about $26.5 billion. across the unfulfilled orders of about 700 airplanes that equates to about $37.8 million per airplane which Boeing needs to recoup in order to drive that deferred production cost balance to 0.  Some analysts believe that this is a very difficult task to accomplish and they may have to increase the accounting block in order to book reasonable amount of profit after the deferred production costs.

Lastly, with regards to sales, Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research reported that the sale of the 787 to Emirates is a "done deal" and that this order will be formally announced at the Dubai Air Show in November.  While there isn't any numbers available, the order is believed to be for a mix of 787-9 and 787-10.  This potential order certainly can help Boeing with the decision to move to 14/month. Another potential order is from Turkish Airlines (I know I sounded that bell before).  This time Turkish may be close to wet leasing up to 4 787-9s from Etihad Airways.  There is also a rumor that the wet lease would be in addition to a firm order of 787s direct from Boeing.  Turkish and Etihad are still trying to work out the details.

787 Tables