Big week for the 787 program

Boeing saw two 787 customer fly aways this week as mostly positive news about the program reinforced the view that the program is on a solid course to recover and to become profitable. 
First came news (that this blog revealed in an earlier post) that Boeing is producing the 787 at 5/month including one per month from Boeing Charleston.

This further reinforces the view that Boeing is on a solid track to achieve the planned production rate of 7/month in Everett and 3/month in North Charleston. ZA511 (LN 83, JA818A) was rolled out last week and represents the first aircraft built at the 5/month rate.

Boeing's Board of Directors gave a soft ok to Boeing's Commercial Sales staff to begin discussions with customers regarding the 787-10 which is a double stretch of the baseline 787-8.  This aircraft, which will compete head on with Airbus' A330-300 and A350-900 and will be marketed as a 777-200 replacement, has generated a lot of positive feedback.  Qatar Airways' is reportedly in negotiations to convert some of the 30 firm and 30 options that they have on the 787-8 into the 787-10.  Since the 787-10 is not due to be delivered around 2018 or 2019, conversions will allow Boeing to free up short term delivery slots for 787-8 and 787-9 thus helping sales of those versions of the Dreamliner.  Given that the program needs sales of over 1000 787s to achieve breakeven, the 787-10 will certainly help Boeing attain that as it is rumored that Boeing can sell as many as 500 787-10s.  Boeing doesn't have the full ATO (Authority To Offer) but it is widely rumored that this should happen very very shortly, (as soon as this month) which leads me to believe that Boeing will probably have one or two launch customers lined up with an MoU.  These sales won't be posted as firm until next year however.  Other potential customers include British Airways, Singapore Airlines, Ethihad, Air France, Lufthansa, American Airlines, United Airlines, and any carrier with a 777-200 or an A330-300.

The not so good news is that Gulf Air is reducing the number of 787s they have on order.  The order book once had 24 787ss for the Middle Eastern carrier which has been reduced to the current 16 and may go as low as 12.

Boeing had official handovers of 787s this week to Qatar Airways and LOT Polish Airlines.  Both aircraft were contractually delivered earlier so these "deliveries" were ceremonial (read: for the media) in nature as was the fly aways to the airlines' respective home bases.

Looking ahead Boeing will load another 787 tomorrow into position 1 on the surge line.  This will be ZA317 (LN 92, G-TUIA) for Thomson Airways, the British charter airline.  It'll be the first 787 delivered to a British carrier but it certainly won't be the only British carrier to receive the 787 in 2013.  Boeing will push out ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) for Japan Airlines.  This aircraft should be delivered by the end of December to the Japanese carrier.

In terms of deliveries, there are currently 5 787s that are ready to be delivered but two of them are for Air India and given the precarious state of the bridge financing needed to pay for the deliveries, it is highly unlikely that they will be delivered anytime soon but Boeing has prepared them for delivery.  There are one each for Untied Airlines, Qatar and Ethiopian that are ready.  According to my sources, Qatar should take their third 787 next week, Ethiopian will take their fourth later this week and Untied should follow with their third late next week.  There are several more that are preparing to fly or are in the middle of Boeing/customer test flights.  LAN's third had its B-1 flight which was cut short due to a squawk that developed 20 minutes into the flight. Matt Caby reported that the issue was in the (air conditioning) packs. One 787 each for Qatar and United should be flying very soon though expect their deliveries to occur around December if the B-1 flights are not performed this week.  ANA's 17th aircraft is on the flightline but probably won't fly until the end of this month at the earliest. 

Boeing has the potential to deliver at least 3 more 787s this month in addition to the 2 already delivered but if Air India gets its act together then we can see two more 787s delivered this month for a total of 7.  Right now 5 is more realistic for a delivery number in November.

I'm Baaaack...but only for the moment - Post Sandy 787 Update

Hello everyone,
First off I want to thank you all who have sent me best wishes during the last few days. It's been difficult as I have no power, heat (temps are in the low 40s F overnight) and hot water (for bathing, cleaning, etc.).  I'm hopingto have power back in the enxt couple of days but we're not sure when it'll happen.  Right now I'm camped out in the local public library where there is WIFI (real slow due to all the residents who are also here), electricity and heat.  I'll put up a post but not sure when I will be able to do so again.

Anyway on to business.

Boeing had two quick deliveries on Halloween, let's call them "ghost deliveries" as they weren't expected.  In particular the delivery to United of its 2nd 787.  the information coming from United and even Boeing itself didn't indicate a delivery was imminent but they did deliver ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) on Wednesday.  United just announced that they have finished FAA certification of their 787 operations and now should be ready to start limited service on Monday, Nov. 4th. Boeing should still be able to deliver the two Dreamliners to the carrier in November.  These frame are re-worked frames so we would have to see how fast they would go through the pre-delivery and test flight process as ZA290 was a new build that didn't need any re-work and had only needed 2 test flights before being delivered to United.  It's not known when United will press ZA290 into service. 

The second airplane that was delivered was ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) to ANA which is a reworked frame that had 3 test flights prior to being delivered.  For October, Boeing matched the monthly high of 7 deliveries which was achieved in September.

November as mentioned in the prior post may be big but there are issues that may depress deliveries.  First is the uncertainty over deliveries to the Chinese carriers.  There is a certification issue, rumor has it, with the Chinese aviation authorities (CAAC). 

When asked about it Boeing replied: "In keeping with our standard practices, we work with regulatory authorities in advance of local airlines taking delivery of a new model of airplane. Also, as we’ve stated before, we don’t provide forward-looking comments regarding the production or delivery schedules of our customers."

The issue with CAAC has been reinforced when Boeing put both  ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) for China Southern Airlines and ZA430 (LN 73, B2728) for Hainan into storage at Everett's South Ramp.  This indicates that the issue will take some time to sort out.  Boeing has one more 787s for Hainan Airlines that is on the flightline but so far they have not made a move to store it...yet.  There are several 787s that are in production for both Chinese carriers.  In addition to the aforementioned airplanes that have flown or been pulled out of final assembly and on the flightline, there are 2 787s for China Southern that are in storage or in change incorporation.  At Boeing Charleston there are 3 787s in final assembly for Hainan Airlines and 3 more (all for China Southern) are to start final assembly at either Everett of Boeing Charleston by the end of the year or early January.  This is a total of 11 airframes that are potentially to be stored if the issues are not resolved with CAAC.

Boeing as of today has 14 airplanes that are in pre-flight, flight testing or ready to be delivered.  Rumor has it that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) is to be delivered sometime next week to Air India.  It was to have been delivered last month and it is unknown as to why there was a delay but this is Air India. 'Nuff said.

Qatar Airways seems to be moving towards taking 2 more 787s in November though I'm still trying to get confirmation on this LOT Polish Airlines should take their first 787 in about 10 days as well.  That is 4 aircraft thus far.

Here is what I think will be delivered this month:

ZA261 - Ethiopian - 2 test flights already and flying a 3rd today
ZA286 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA238 - Air India - ready for delivery
ZA289 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA460 - Qatar Airways - 2 test flights thus far
ZA239 - Air India - 2 test flights and in paint
ZA270 - LOT Polish Airlines - 2 Boeing test flights thus far
ZA463 - Qatar Airways - 4 test flights thus far
ZA271 - LOT Polish Airlines - in pre-flight may deliver late this month or by end of December
ZA538 - LAN - in pre-flight and should fly soon

This is a total of 9 (with a possibility of 10) 787s being delivered this month.  Obviously I am not counting any of the Chinese airframes. It remains to be seen how those airframes that are currently in production will fare in terms of getting through pre-flight and being delivered by the end of the month but I can see one more airframe being delivered to ANA in November (probably the re-work frame) and one for JAL may also make it by the end of the month.

Boeing also has moved one of the "terrible teens" from runaway storage to the EMC to start chagne incorporation.  This aircraft is ZA504 (LN 15).  Right now this aircraft is listed to go to ANA but this may change.  ANother aircraft for Qatar Airways has completed change incorporation and paint is now spotted at the Everett Fuel Dock.  This aircraft is ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCC).  Lastly, Boeig loaded ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) into position 1 in the 40-24 surge line to start final assembly.  Boeing is keeping up the assembly rate at around 5 airplanes per month.

6 787s fly for the first time in 5 days

From Oct. 18 to Oct. 22 inclusive, Boeing took advantage of a break in the weather to fly 6 different production 787s on their B-1 flights.  The aircraft were obviously ready but bad weather forced a hold on all B-1 flights. Thus when the break came Boeing released the planes for flight.  However because of the delay, I expect that none of these airplanes will be able to be delivered by the end of the month.  It does potentially set up November as a big month for deliveries but there may be a knock on efffect as 787s that were scheduled for flights around this time will be pushed back to later this month and certainly into early November.

10/18/2012
ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) - LOT Polish Airlines

10/20/2012
ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728) - Hainan Airlines
ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) - United Airlines

10/21/2012
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - Air India

10/22/2012
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - Ethiopian Airways
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - Qatar Airways

In addition to the increase B-1 flights, there was a very noticable increase in follow on flights of other airframes that have already flown.  There included a C-1 flight for ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) which is expected to be delivered to Air India before the end of the month, hopefully). 

Given the increased activity, however, I do not expect a lot of deliveries in the next 8 days.  There are really 3 airplanes that are ready for delivery or will be ready for delivery.  There is a possibility of one more airplane that could be delivered this month but it only has an outside chance.

Ready or almost ready for delivery:

ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB) - LAN
ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS) - Ethiopian
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - Air India (only had one C-1 flight may need more)

The one airframe that might make it for delivery by the end of this month is:

ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) - ANA

The last aircraft still needs to perform customer flights and I am not sure if it has completed all the Boeing test flights at this point even though it has flown twice.

It is apparent that if Boeing can maintain an aggressive flying schedule in November, they can have a lot delivieries in that month.  Much depends on the aircraft condition after completing final assembly/change incorporation as well as weather and the ability to work through the backlog of planes that are finished and need to go through testing.

Boeing gets a break in the weather, send up 3 787s for flight tests

For the last few days Boeing has been trying to fly two 787s on their first (B-1) flights.  The weather in the Pacific Northwest has been an issue  but the flight test team caught a break today and were able to send up two planes today along with a third 787 making its C-2 (customer acceptance) flight.

Both ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) for ANA and ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) for China Southern made their B-1 flights today as Boeing attempts to deliver them by month end.  Additionally ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS) made its second customer (C-2) flight today. It is hoped that this airplane should deliver late next week.  It is also hoped that Boeing will be able to deliver ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) to Air India.  This airplane also needs to fly customer flights but should be able to do so during the coming week if the schedule delivery is to take place in about 10 days of so.  Boeing isn't scheduled to deliver another 787 from Charleston until November so they have time to conduct B-1 on the next 787 built there (ZA239, LN 60, VT-ANK for Air India), I suspect a B-1 flight of this airplane around the end of the month. Another 787 that is expected to be delivered is LAN's 2nd 787.  That airplane is scheduled for an Oct. 18th delivery but has made only one test flight.  Boeing will need to do a couple more flight as well as LAN customer flights in the next 6 days.  This one may actually slide into the following week.

787 Production Rate Steadily Increasing

The 787 production rate is steadily increasing as Boeing looks to load a new 787 into the assembly tooling in the two assembly bays at Everett once every 7 days (at least for the next one month).  ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) for Polish LOT is due to load into position 1 in 40-26 on Oct. 11.  One week later on Oct. 18, ZA273 (LN 87, SP-LRD) also for LOT will load in position 1 in 40-24.  Finally on Oct. 25 ZA274 (LN 88, SP-LRE) will load in position 1 in 40-26. This rate (excluding Charleston built 787s) is about 4 per month.  Charleston looks to be running at about 0.66 airplanes every month (2 airplanes every 3 months) though it is expected that they will hit one per month shortly.  Given these rates, Boeing is very close, if not already there, at producing 787s at a rate of 5/month.

The issues facing them is now clearing the backlog both at Everett and Charleston. Between the two delivery centers there are 16 787s that are ready for pre-flight or are into their test flight activities.  Boeing has already delivered 3 787s this month but tentatively have 9 more deliveries scheduled between Oct. 18 and Oct. 26th. It is possible for these 9 aircraft to be delivered but it is all dependent on both factors that are within Boeing's control (technical issues, allocation of resources needed to prepare and test fly the assembled 787s) as well as factor's out of Boeing's control (dealing with mercurial customers such as Air India, Qatar Airways and the country of China).  Several handovers should be a no brainer: Ethiopian Airlines (2), United Airlines (1), ANA (1) and LAN (1).  That is 5 airplanes right there.  The ones that are questionable are Qatar Airways (2), Air India (1) and Hainan Airlines (1), and China Southern (1). With the Chinese carriers, the issue is the certification from CAAC (China's Civil Aviation Authority).  It is unknown what the issues despite FAA and EASA certification.  CAAC has to certify the 787 for use by Chinese carriers.

Lastly, Boeing has pulled out two 787s from 40-26.  ZA271 (LN 78 (SP-LRB) for Polish LOT went to the paint hangar at Everett and ZA432 (LN 79, B-2730) for Hainan Airlines was pulled out to the 40-51 ramp area. Given the extended time that these two airplanes spent in final assembly I expect that there are very few to no assembly tasks remaining on these frames.  Additionally ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) for ANA conducted taxi runs but could not perform its first flight due to weather consideration as Boeing has stringent weather requirements for B-1 flights.

First SC built 787 to roll out at end of April, 787 production update

Boeing announced that the first 787 built in North Charleston will roll out of final assembly on April 27th. This aircraft, ZA237 (L/N46), is destined for Air India and should be delivered this summer. Even though it is rolling out it will probably go through a more extensive battery of ground and gauntlet testing as this is the first 787 built outside of Everett where most of the assembly technicians are new to building this aircraft. After gauntlet testing Boeing will conduct a B-1 test flight and then fly the aircraft to Texas where it will be painted. It will return to North Charleston to finish pre-delivery Boeing and customer test flights. I don't know if it already has the customer interior installed but that could happen just before painting but after flying the initial test flight. In case the test flight has uncovered any issues that need to be corrected, Boeing techs will probably want unrestricted access to any areas. Interior fittings like seats, galleys, and restrooms can get in the way.

Lastly, I updated the 787 production firing order with LN71-LN75. One slight change is that LN 63 which was going to be for Hainan Airlines is now going to ANA with Hainan now getting LN 73. I was able to get some information on where these particular airplanes will be built as well. These 5 frames are, for now, scheduled to go to Ethiopian (2 frames), Air India, Hainan, and LAN. Interesting no new first delivery frames in this lot.