Boeing and NTSB investigating 787 engine issue

Both Boeing and the NTSB are investigating an issue with a GEnx powered 787 that was about to conduct its first flight yesterday.  The aircraft in question is ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) for Air India.  This is the 2nd 787 built at the Boeing Charleston facility. Apparently a piece of debris fell out of the engine and landed on a grassy area next to the runway at Charleston.  The piece was apparently hot enough to spark a small fire that was promptly extinguished by the USAF fire fighting crew stationed at the joint use airport.

The investigation is in the early stages however I do think that this might be an issue that is either a one off manufacturing or maintenance issue issue with this particular aircraft and I have doubt that this would be a fleetwide issue as the GEnx-1B has been performing well up to now. I do suspect that this is more of a ground maintenance issue (perhaps something not secured properly) but the NTSB will have to make that final determination along with Boeing and GE.  At the time of the incident, ZA238 was doing taxi tests prior to undertaking its first flight.  It is not known if this will have a delivery impact on other 787s both at Charleston and Everett.  Currently there are 8 GE powered 787s that are ready or being readied for delivery including the for Dreamliners for Air India.  The other carriers include Ethiopian, Qatar, and Japan Airlines.  The aircraft for Qatar had completed a tour to the Farnborough Airshow where it performed an aerial routine for three days and returned to Everett without incident.  Jon Ostrower of the Wall Street Journal has a great article about the situation.

Updated 787 delivery info for July and August

There is new updated delivery information from a variety of sources concerning future deliveries of the 787.  First off, ANA apparently has taken delivery of another 787 probably yesterday.  ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) was delivered and should fly to Japan tonight.  Apparently that looks to be the only delivery being made this month. However there is more clarity on future deliveries including those to Air India.
Air India - Ajit Singh, the Minister of Civil Aviation, reported that the GoI's CCEA should be taking up the matter of the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing in about 15 days. Now how soon after approval will these airplanes be delivered is another question.  According to a posting on airliners.net, the carrier can take delivery of four '87s before August 5th from the flightline at Charleston.  This is a rumor and there is nothing official to back it up as of yet.  We just have to stay tuned for this drama to play out.

LAN - The first aircraft for LAN has now been moved to the flightline and will presumably be starting the pre-flight testing prior to its B1 flight.  There has been some confusion as to when LAN will take this airplane but now there seems to be some clarification.  The CEO of LAN told Flightglobal that the carrier will take delivery in September.

ANA - ANA's 787 fleet is well into double digits with several more on the way.  There are 4 787s that are winding its way through pre-flight at Everett.  According to a posting in airliners.net, ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be making it's B1 flight tomorrow (July 18). This airplane is projected (of course not certain) to deliver around August 8th.  The three other 787s are all airplanes that didn't need any re-work done at the EMC.   It is quite possible that all these four airplanes can deliver in August though it's more likely that a couple will deliver in August and a couple more in September from this batch.  There are still 2 more late build airplanes that are in storage that wold have to finish some amount of change incorporation and I would expect that these airplanes will be delivered later this fall. a, ZA118 is registered as JA813A (LN 67).

Finally, here's an interesting article that sums up Farnborough 2012 air show from aerospace analyst Saj Ahmad.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 4

Farnborough 2012 concluded with a bang from Boeing and United Airlines.  A huge 150 aircraft deal for 100 737 MAX 9 and 50 737-900ER all firm.  Airbus did well with the widebody A330 but no orders for the A350 or A380.  In fact Airbus admitted that it wold be a stretch to book 30 A380 orders this year.  They were hoping for a book to bill ratio of 1 in that program this year.  Here's the final tally for this years air show:

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
Avolon - 15 x A320NEO - MoU
CALC - 28 x A320, 8 X A321 - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
CIT Group - 5 x A330- Firm
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU
Middle East Airlines - 5 x A320NEO, 5 x A321NEO - MoU
Synergy - 6 x A330-200, 3 x A330-200F - Firm
UTAir - 20 x A321 - MoU

ATR
Air Lease Corp - 2 x ATR 72-600
LAO Airlines - 2 x ATR 72-600
Nordic Aviation - 1 x ATR 42-600
TransAsia - 8 x ATR 72-600

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
Avolon - 10 x 737 MAX 8, 5 x 737 MAX 9, 10 x 737-800 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU
United Airlines - 100 x 737 MAX 9, 50 x 737-900ER - Firm

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI
Chorus Aviation - 6 x Q400 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Mitsubishi
SkyWest Airlines - 100 x MRJ - MoU

Sukhoi
Interjet - 5 x SSJ-100

787 production improving says Pat Shanahan

Speaking at the Farnborough Air Show, Pat Shanahan  is indicating that the backlog of 787s at Everett will be gone sooner then everyone realizes.  Boeing is making constant progress on the production front to such an extent that the backlog of 787s that are complete and ready to be delivered is growing.  The situation has been likened to people waiting on line at the market waiting to check out with each person waiting their turn on line.  The rate of 787s being released from production however, is exceeding the delivery rate though this should turn around sometime around the fall.  Dominic Gates put together a piece on the 787 production rebound and plans for future production of the 787-9 and the 777X at Everett as well as the future of the EMC and the 787 surge line.  It is expected that the surge line should be activated for production sometime this fall and allowing Boeing to go t o 5/month.  Dominic also confirmed the ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be delivered this month to ANA.  This is the first 787 to enter final assembly back in June 2009.  It has taken three years to deliver this airplane.

Other 787 News

During this pas week, Rolls Royce announced at the Farnborough 2012 air show that they will develop a new version of the Trent 1000 engine called Trent 1000-TEN (for Thrust, Efficiency and New technology).  This engines is to have a 3% improvement in specific fuel consumption over the current package "B" Trent 1000 though I'm not sure how it compares to the the Package "C" engine which is currently undergoing testing in Derby, UK.  The engine is to power the 787-8, 787-9 and the proposed 787-10 aircraft at a thrust of 76,000 lbs but can go as high as 78,0000.  The idea of being able to power all three versions of the 787 is to provide for commonality for customers who order different versions of the aircraft.  It'll be interesting to see if there is commonality across the older versions of the Trent 1000 family.  The engine is expected to enter service in 2016 though a customer has yet to commit to the engine.  Click here to read Rolls Royce's press release.

The Air India saga continues with no delivery date in sight unfortunately.  Final approval could come tonight or it could come when hell freezes over, I'm betting on the later.  Reuters put out an article describing how the Air India 787 order is in the limbo by being caught in the Government of India bureaucracy.  Currently the Ministry of Civil Aviation is waiting for some sign off from some obscure other department and then some such committee can sign off on the compensation deal between Boeing and Air India.  This can really mess with your head. Bottom line is that the 4 airplanes currently sitting on the Charleston flightline aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 1

First day at Farnborough was Boeing's day and already there are rumors that there will be more 737 MAX deals with GECAS and United Airlines on the order of 75 and 100 each respectively.  The United order announcement is rumored to take place in Chicago which is where the corporate headquarters for both UAL and Boeing are located.  The GECAS order might be announced tomorrow. Here's a review of the order action at Farnborough 2012:

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Air India 787s on the move, Qatar 787 readied for Farnborough

Over the weekend Matt Cawby spotted the two Air India 787s that are ready for delivery sporting temporary US registration numbers on their fuselages.  This lead to speculation that the aircraft are to be flown out of Everett for possible storage, maybe in the desert.  Well the speculation was mostly correct.  The two 787s, ZA233 (LN 29,VT-AND) and ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) will be flown to Charleston to join sistership ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) on Monday, July 2nd.  Now the reason why it is being flown to Charleston isn't officially disclosed but the obvious reason could be for a triple delivery to AIr India and that still could happen but sources have told me that delivery to Air India is still listed as "TBD".   It is conceivable that these three airframes for Air India will be delivered from Charleston but another reason is that if Boeing is able to turn the keys over to the carrier between July 4th and July 8th, they will be unable to fly away during those dates as the runway at Everett will be closed.  This way Boeing leaves open the delivery and fly away during those dates by transferring these airplanes to Charelston.  The most likely reason is to free up space in Everett for other aircraft that are ready to be delivered.  Already ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) is already out of paint and need to prepare for pre-flight. ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is currently sitting in the fuel dock sans its rudder (don't know why) this aircraft is projected to be delivered at the end of July but it still needs to have its rudder reattached and go through pre-flight.  The pace of aircraft reaching the flightline ready for pre-flight is quickening and Boeing needs the space.  Given the uncertainty of the Air India deliveries this is a good move to keep the pace at Everett moving.  ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways is already at Boeing Field to prepare to fly to Farnborough later this week this airplane is still projected to deliver later this month.  Another flightline stall should open up tomorrow as ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) will deliver today, as far as I know, and should fly away tomorrow July 2.  ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) should deliver around July 11th with fly away on July 12th.

On Tuesday another line move should occur which will push out ZA119 (LN 69) for ANA and will mark the start of final assembly for ZA537 (LN 74) for LAN.

787 Flying During Farnborough

This morning Boeing announed that the ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways will be flying demonstration flight from July 9 to July 11th during the Farnborough Airshow.  This is the first time Boeing will be flying acommercial demonstration at an air show in over 25 years. Rumor has it that Boeing is doing this at the behest of Qatar Airways chairman Akbar Al-Baker (U-Turn Al) but that is not confirmed.  According to Randy's Blog, ZA461 should arrive at Farnborough on Thursday July 5th.  It will fly a validation flight the next day and fly demonstration flights on 4pm each day from July 9th to July 11th.  The demo flight is 7 minutes long and will be flown by Boeing pilots.

The aircraft will have to leave from Boeing Field, according to Matt Cawby, the runway at Everett will be closed from July 4th to July 8th re-opening on July 9th.  This also means no B-1 787 flights or delivery fly aways during this period.  If there are to be any B-1 flights prior to the runway shut down, it would most likely be ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) as this one seems closest to conducting any B-1 flights.  It is also possible that the two Air India 787s at Everett can be delivered before the runway closure but again this is all dependent on the Indian Government approving the deal between Air India and Boeing.  I have no word on when this may happen.

In the meantime, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) was supposed to have been delivered yesterday but appeared to have been taken on another test flight yesterday evening and is know expected to be delivered on July 1st and expected fly away on July 2nd.

June 12, 2012 787 delivery watch and other 787 news

UPDATE (6/12/12, 8:45 PM):  There will be a line move tomorrow but on top of that there was some movement of several Qatar Airways 787s.

ZA118 (LN 67) will go straight from 40-26 to the paint hangar 45-01.  Sounds like there aren't very many jobs to do on this one and can go to preflight. 
ZA461 (LN 58) has gone from Stall 106 to the paint hangar 45-04 sounds like we'll finally see a 787 in Qatar Airways color scheme.
ZA460 (LN 57) went to EMC position Z
ZA511 (LN 63) went to EMC position 3
ZA463 (LN 64) went to EMC position E replacing ZA100 (LN 7)
ZA100 (LN 7) went to paint hangar 45-03 for painting seems this one is done

Lots of news out today.

ZA509 flies

ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) flew for the first time this afternoon. This is the first 787 to conduct a a B-1 flight in over three weeks.  Boeing had filed numerous flight plans over the past few days but it finally took off this afternoon. If there aren't too many issues then it should deliver by the end of this month.  it is still unknown why it has taken so long between B-1 flights for the787 and why ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) and ZA509 (LN 48, JA810A) have not been delivered to ANA.  ZA506 did have an experimental sticker and an N registration on it but those have since been removed.  I can speculate that this airplane conducted some certification activities, possibly connected to software upgrades, and Boeing is waiting on final FAA approval before signing the airplanes over to ANA.  The fact that ZA509 finally took flight might be an encouraging sign that is approval is close or already in hand.

United to take 787 delivery in September

Jeff Smisek, the CEO of United said today at a shareholder meeting that the airline will take delivery of the first Dreamliner in September and will have 5 to 6 787s by the end of the year.  Currently there are 5 787s that are assembled and two of the five that are currently undergoing change incorporation.  ZA290 (LN 77) will be assembled in Everett and I expect that this airplane will enter final assembly sometime around early September.  Boeing can certainly deliver all these 787s to UAL by the end of the year as they probably don't have much change incorporation to be done.

Air India

The word is the the GoI will take up the compensation agreement between Air India and Boeing this week and that first delivery should take place next week.  Though this is India and they do love their little drama so I'm not going to believe it until all three 787s, ZA 233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) and ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI), are all on Indian soil.

Qatar Airways

Of all the 787 that would make a lot of noise I was expecting Qatar Airways, not Air India but some how Air India was able to supplant Akbar Al-Baker as the most annoying (and most dislike) customer in the airline industry.  I know I'm comparing an individual with a company but you get the idea.  Anyway we've heard not a peep from one of the most vocal airlines in the world.  I did get word that delivery of Qatar's first 787 should take place by the end of the month.  Further I got confirmation of the following piece of information that was in a Qatar Airways press release:
The Doha-based airline is preparing to take delivery of five 787s during 2012, with the first set to arrive in Qatar this summer.

The carrier will initially operate the aircraft on intra-Gulf routes to provide flight crew with training hours before Qatar Airways’ 787 is scheduled to appear on static display at the Farnborough Air Show in July and then enter its first long-haul commercial service on the Doha – London Heathrow route.

If so then Boeing will need to deliver Qatar's first 787 by the end of this month if it is to conduct inter-Gulf flights for a week and then go to Farnborough for the air show which starts July 9th.  It is entirely possible that the airline can take delivery by the end of the first week of July and then fly it to Farnborough for the show.  I say this because as of today the plane is still in a flightline stall and there is still work being done on the aircraft and has yet to run its engines for the first time let alone make a B-1 flight.  If ZA461 (LN 58) isn't on the ramp at Farnborough a 777-300ER would be in its place) then you can expect U-Turn Al to be back to his normally bombastic self thus regaining his title over Air India.

Production

I expect there to be another line move if not today then by Thursday at the latest.  LN 67 should be pushed out and should be in a similar condition as LN 66.  This airplane is also for ANA and should most certainly deliver next month.  Related to production, Flightglobal writer Steven Trimble came out with an article saying that Boeing is pushing the activation of the surge line to the end of September, ostensibly the start of the 4th quarter.  The reason being is that Boeing wants to use the line for chane incorporation for the 39 787s that are out on the Everett ramp.  According to Trimble the line is completely ready to support production of the 787s but Boeing wants to use it for change incorporation during the summer.  This may make sense as it have two positive effects...1) it allows Boeing to work through the 39 planes that are still need to be finished that more faster thus reducing inventory on the balance sheet and boking revenues on the income statement and 2) it allows Boeing to refine and double check it plans for the surge line and for the rate increase to 5/month that will come this fall.  Boeing and its supplies cannot fail on this rate increase and must make sure that it occurs seamlessly across the supply chain.  I wouldn't be surprised if some of the 787s that are currently in final assembly are moved to the surge line to finish off some of the minor assembly tasks.

787-9/787-10

Jim Albaugh speaking yesterday said that the 787-10 would be launched before a 777X as it is the derivative that is the most further along.  According to Scott Hamilton who cites a Bernstein Research note, the 787-10 launch is almost a certainty.  The 787-9 development is proceeding well and will go into production on the surge line next year. 

The same Bernstein Research note also raised Boeing outlook based on improvement in the 787 program and in particular the production.  It cites supplier performance as a huge factor in the improved production outlook.  See the Reuters article that talks about the Bernstein note here.

Performance of ANA 787s

Word is coming out that the performance of ANA 787s on long haul flights is 21% better compared to the 767-300ER that they're replacing.  This is compared to the 20% that Boeing was aiming for when they started marketing the 787 to the airlines. These are the overweight aircraft that are equipped with the Trent 1000 package "B" engines that have SFC bought to within 1% of Rolls Royce's performance guarantees.  One can only imagine what the performance will be like on the later 787s which are delivered at the promise weight (Boeing is getting there) along with the improved engines coming out from both GE (PIP2) and Rolls Royce (package "C").