787 Looking Back and Looking Forward: Part 1, 2012 Year in Review

2012 787 Year in Review

2012 was a year highs and lows for the 787 program.  While Boeing executed very well on it plan to increase production and work through the back log of airplanes sitting around Everett waiting to be modified and delivered, the program was bedeviled by teething problems while in customer service. 

The Bad
These problems were magnified by the media spotlight that this airplane had to contend with since 2007.  Every new squawk that appeared was magnified by the media despite the benign nature of most of these issues.  The most notable was the diversion of a scheduled United 787 flight from Houston to Newark, NJ.  The aircraft landed in New Orleans without incident as the pilot noticed irregular indications on the cockpit displays related to the electrical system.  United stated that the issue was traced to a starter generator supplied by Hamilton Sundstrand.

The Good
Despite all this many customers reported that they were very happy with the performance of the aircraft.  Air India was able to turn a money losing route (Delhi to Frankfurt) into a profitable one. ANA itself reported that the aircraft was more fuel efficient than they had expected.  As Boeing works out the excess weight of the aircraft in subsequent block numbers and GE & Rolls Royce brings their respective engines closer to promised fuel burn specs the 787-8 will only get better.

During 2012 Boeing had delivered 46 787s to 8 different customers.  7 of these customers received their first 787s this year.  The airlines that Boeing delivered these aircraft to represented every continent on the world except Antarctica (still waiting for Penguin Air to order, I guess).  Of the 46 airplanes delivered, 31 airplanes had to under go some amount of change incorporation through the Everett Modification Center while 15 were delivered straight from the the final assembly lines at Everett and Charleston. Over all Boeing has delivered 49 787s since deliveries began in September 2011.

I was expecting Boeing to deliver 50 787s this year and they fell short of this number quite narrowly by 4 airframes.  This is attributable to the failure of the Chinese and Air India to take delivery of 787s that are ready for service.

On the 787-9 development front, Boeing, at last report, had completed over 90% of the detailed engineering design work for this variant of the aircraft (this was accomplished back in September, 2012) and work started on the first major fuselage assemblies in the last couple of months.  Boeing is reporting that the aircraft is meeting weight expectations and does expect that they will deliver and aircraft that will come in well under the contractual weight made to customers.

Boeing has seemed to have executed well on its plan for 2012.  They had estimated that they would deliver between 35 and 43 787s in the year and they exceeded that delivery plan. 2013 will be a crucial year in terms of the production and delivery ramp up as well as the start of testing on Boeing newest 787 variant. However there are looming problems that can derail those plans in a significant way. These will be explored in the 787 2013 year look ahead.

787 testing picking up as deliveries continue

787 flight activity picked up this week as the weather cleared long enough for Boeing to send up another 787 on its 1st flight.  Yesterday There were 4 787 flights including the B-1 flight for ZA285 (LN 45, N27901) for United Airlines.  There was supposed to be another test flight of ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ but it didn't occur.

As Boeing aggressively ramps up flight tests this month deliveries are also starting to take shape. This evening, Boeing delivered United's 4th 787 (ZA289, LN 55, N45905).  According to a press report by Bloomberg, Qatar is expecting to take delivery of two 787s on Dec.19th. I also expect Boeing to further deliveries of 787s to ANA (2), United (1)and JAL (1).  Wild card deliveries can be made to Air India (2) and possibly China Southern (that airplane still has to make its 2nd test flight).

Now all this continues despite the recent spat of glitches that the 787 has experienced.  The most notable one is the issue with the starter generator supplied by Hamilton Sundstrand.  A second 787, ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) experienced the fault and landed while being delivered to Doha from Victorville.  The generator is being swapped out and the aircraft should enter service soon but the issue is troubling.  Akbar (U-Turn Al) Al-Baker again vociferously complained about the teething problems of the 787 to the media (after the first revenue flight of Qatar's 787 to London) but Qatar is still planning to take delivery of 2 787 next week.  Still Boeing along with Hamilton Sundstrand and the FAA are looking into the issues.  Jon Ostrower of the Wall Street Journal reported that 2 other 787s are affected...one other delivered 787 that belongs to United and an undelivered 787 for Qatar (one of the two that are to be delivered next week). The FAA said the issue doesn't appear to be safety of flight issue and aside for Air India reporting unspecified "electrical problems" no other 787 customers have come forth with electrical probles as of late.  Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times also has an article on the 787 electrical issue.

On the production front, expect things to slow down as Boeing enters its traditional Holiday break.  One aircraft (ZA513, LN 97, JA819A) for ANA will be loaded into the final assembly line and that will be the last until after New Year.

As of today, Boeing has delviered a total of 40 787 to 8 customers worldwide.  They've delivered 37 in 2012 and have to potential to deliver anywhere from 6 to 8 more airplanes this month.

787 flight activity picking up. Is Boeing preparing to give a big Xmas present?

Boeing may be getting set to give AvGeeks and their shareholders a big Xmas gift in the form of several 787 deliveries before the end of the year.

There has a been a noticeable uptick in 787 flight activity both at Everett and Charleston since the first of the month. In the first four days of December, Boeing has conducted 3 B-1 flights on ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB), ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) and ZA510 (LN 59, JA817A).  These three aircraft are for LOT Polish Airlines, Qatar Airways and ANA respectively. 

In addition to these first flights, Boeing has conducted a few follow on test flights of other 787s including two in Charleston.  Both ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) and ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) have flown out of Charleston in recent days. These aircraft were to have been delivered earlier in the fall but on going financing issues at Air India have prevented the carrier from taking delivery.  The fact that these two aircraft have flown on back-to-back days may raise the possibility that Air India has some how arranged the bridge financing needed to take delivery but this speculation is tempered by Air India complaining that their 787s are experiencing "electrical issues" and will not take anymore deliveries of 78s until these "issues" are corrected with a permanent fix.  Interestingly, none of the other 7 Dreamliner customers have reported (at least publicly) of any electrical issues with airplanes with the exception of yesterday's problem with United.

There are currently 7 787s that are in flight tests with another 6 that are making preparations for their B-1 flights.  Of the 6 preparing for 1st flight, I believe that 4 will eventually fly this month and fly fairly soon. There are 3 aircraft (all for Air India) that are ready for delivery but again it depends on the issues at Air India. Thus Boeing has the potential to deliver 14 though we know that they won't deliver that many.  For one thing Boeing hasn't conducted very many post B-1 test flights on these airplanes and some of the customers themselves may not be ready to take delivery by the end of the month.  Here's whom I believe will be able to take delivery this month:

ANA (2), Qatar Airways (2), United Airlines (2), LAN (1), Japan Airlines (1), Air India (2, maybe).

This is 8 (possibly going to 10) that can be delivered by the end of the month.  Since Boeing has taken the majority of these frames on a B-1 flight very early in the month, it leaves them enough time, prior to Boeing's Christmas break, to conduct further test flights and prepare the aircraft for delivery.

United had an incident with their third (and most recently delivered) 787.  This aircraft is N26902 which was delivered on Nov. 20th.  Thankfully, there wasn't any evidence fire or electrical arcing in the aft electrical bay of the 787 that made the emergency landing at New Orleans but preliminary reports say that one of the 6 starter generators on the aircraft failed.  The suspect part is being replaced and will be tested before the aircraft is placed back into service very soon. I believe the generators are made by Hamilton Sundstrand.

Trent 1000 gear box issue holding up deliveries: Aviation Week

According to an article by Guy Norris in Aviation Week, the gear box issue is holding up deliveries of the Trent 1000 powered aircraft as Boeing needs replacement gear boxes from Hamilton Sundstrand.  There are numerous 787s on the Boeing flightline waiting to be delivered.  Of the 9 airplanes that I have listed as in final preps for delivery at Everett, 5 are equipped with the Trent 1000 engine.  According to Guy Norris' report, 17 Trents in total are affected by the gear box issue of which nine are on undelivered 787s that are earmarked for ANA.  Boeing and Rolls Royce are waiting for replacement gear boxes from Hamilton Sundstrand.  Of the other 4 787s at Everett/Ft. Worth that are waiting to be delivered, one is in paint (ZA262), one for JAL (ZA182) just emerge from the paint hangar and will robably start pre-flight work soon, the one for Qatar Airways is still finishing up interior IFE work (ZA461) and another 787 that just appeared at the Boeing fuel dock, looks to be United Airlines first 787 (ZA288) and still has to go through painting before moving on the pre-flight.  All these are equipped with the GEnx engines. 

So it appears the bottleneck may be with the gear box issue with the Trent 1000 engines as each of the 5 Trent 1000 aircraft are all at different point in the pre-flight timeline. Each aircraft has to wait it turn while the aircraft that is further along must clear each pre-flight milestone before the B-1 flight.

In the meantime, the Trent 1000 gear box issue is likely a minor problem that affects a very small portion of the 787s in service but it's an issue that has attracted significant attention because it is the 787.

Lastly, LAN says it is expected to take delivery of its first 787 (ZA536) in late August or early September.

Flightblogger: 787 fire investigation coming to an end

In posting today, Flightblogger is reporting that Boeing has concluded its investigation of the fire aboard ZA002 and they could be in a position to publicly release the results as well as a new schedule but it seems all but certain that there will be another delay. What is not known is how long the delay will be with estimates ranging from 6 months to as much as a year.

Indications are pointing towards FOD as the culprit but there is still open questions as to what the FOD was and where was it located. Additionally, a more important flag was raised about the 787s power redundancies in case of a loss of a unit like P100.

Fligthblogger also revealed that Boeing was able to recreate the effects in the systems integration lab.

Boeing needs to understand why the 787 had assumed that all power was loss and the RAT was deployed (it only deploys in the event of a total power loss). This might necessitate a software and/or hardware fix though it is not known at this time.

On a related note, Susanna Ray of Bloomberg News put out an article where Wall Street analysts say that a 7th delay is a foregone conclusion. Dominic Gates also has an article detailing the investigation and the possibility that FOD played a role in the fire.

The fire may have revealed a potential problem with how power is distributed in the event one of the power distribution panels failed like the P100 did. It is better to find these issues now instead of an revenue flight with 200 passengers on board.

You can read each of the article by clicking the link below:

Flightblogger: Boeing nears end to 787 fire investigation

Susanna Ray: Boeing Dreamliner Faces Seventh Delay, Analysts Say

Dominic Gates: Boeing investigating if foreign object caused 787 electrical fire

French Newspaper: Forgtten tool in P100 sparked fire

Ok, I'm not sure how credible this report is but in light of Scott Hamilton's report that FOD was the culprit of the fire, there is now this from the French newspaper "Le Figaro". The article refers to a report in another French newspaper "La Tribune" about a tool being left in the panel. Click HERE to access the article in French. Click HERE for the artice in La Tribune. Below is a translation using Google Translation fro the article in Le Figaro:

A foreign body may have triggered the fire that broke out Nov. 9 on a test flight of a Boeing 787, forcing since the American manufacturer to suspend his campaign test flight within 3 months delivery date official said Monday The Tribune.

"A tool, forgotten in a cabinet (which is software components, ie), has caused a short circuit," according to comments from industry sources reported by the daily La Tribune.

However, this would not have such consequences, notes the newspaper, noting that the entire power distribution system is at stake.

The Tribune added that several manufacturers are involved, including French Zodiac, one of the subcontractors of the American Hamilton, supervisor of the electricity distribution and Boeing aircraft, Specifications and controls.

And translation of the La Tribune article:

Incredible as it may seem, it is a forgotten tool in a cabinet that is at the origin of the fire on 9 November that forced Boeing to halt flight testing of the B787. Although detected, the anomaly still poses problems for engineers who need to understand how to prevent it from reproducing. Among the subcontractors in the crosshairs: French Zodiac.

FOD for "foreign object damage" or damage caused by foreign body. That, according to several industry sources, the triggering element of the fire that broke out Nov. 9 on a test flight of a Boeing 787, forcing since the manufacturer to suspend its test campaign flight three months after the first delivery to All Nippon Airways. "A tool, forgotten in a cabinet (which is software, components ..., ed) caused a short circuit," says Will we at The Tribune.

However, this should not have such consequences. Because the whole system of power distribution, a crucial point in the plane, which is involved. "For security, everything is redundant in a plane. But the blackout that occurred in the first cabinet spread to the second, and the aircraft had to use emergency power management to ask, "say the sources. This is a small wind turbine (called the rate) that is located on the fuselage and a small generator supplying emergency power for the aircraft to land.

Several manufacturers are involved in this can of worms. Including French Zodiac one of the subcontractors of the American Hamilton (subsidiary of United Technologies), supervisor of distribution of electricity in the air, and of course Boeing, Specifications and controls. The French equipment provides such components in the cabinet. Hamilton provides other. "However, you can not blame anyone for now, says one industry, as more than a problem of quality of play is a problem in the logic of management of the electrical system since the breakdown spread. "

Nevertheless, the results of races may be final. The Boeing 787 was headed straight for seventh behind. It is even a certainty for the highly respected Steven Udvar-Hazy, head of aircraft lessor Air Lease Corporation. "If changes are needed on some software, it will take time and aircraft deliveries will be postponed," said a French industrialist. Morgan Stanley, such a scenario could shift the first deliveries of the aircraft at 2012. They were laid in 2008, when launching the program in 2004.

ZA004 did make the ferry flight to Everett yesterday though ZA003 has not returned to Boeing Field as of yet but Guy Norris is reporting that ZA002 being prepped for a return flight back to Boeing Field though no date has been set. Additionally, ZA001 is now entering a lay up period for maintenance with ZA004.

Guy Norris: 787 ZA004 returns to Everett

More progress

We're only 4 days into June but there are signs of continued progress on the 787.

Jon Ostrower, in his blog, reported that Saudi Arabian Airlines has committed to 12 787s in a mixture of leased and purchased aircraft. This is supposed to be a firm contract though Boeing has not said anything as of yet. See Jon's report here.


Hamilton Sundstrand, who is manufacturing the power supply units for the 787 now has delivered "everything Boeing needs to turn the power on." David Hess, the President of Hamilton Sundstrand said "All the hardware and software that Boeing needs to power on is ready and in Seattle right now."

Pat Shanahan promised David Hess a huge meal if Hamilton Sundstrand delivered the power supply units on time. I hope Pat has enough funds to feed these guys!

The power supply units and the brake monitoring system were the only worries left. Now that the power supply is no longer an impediment to power on, it is looking more and more likely that power on can be achieved by the end of this month. I have heard rumors that there is still plenty on work left to be done on Dreamliner 1 and I've heard that Boeing may not even make the June 30th deadline. There is no specifics yet but even Pat Shanahan said that it would be a horse race to get power on by June 30th.

As to the brake monitor issue. That is not needed for power on but will be absolutely necessary before Boeing takes Dreamliner 1 outside to the ramp for the start of ground and taxi tests. No word on the resolution of that issue.

Last sign of progress, one of the 747 Dreamlifters left yesterday for Nagoya, Japan. rumor has it that it is picking up the wings for Dreamliner 4 to be delivered into Everett later this week. Also later this week, ZY998, the 787 fatigue test airframe is due to be pulled out of building 40-26 at Everett and moved to the fatigue test area north of the final assembly plant. With that move, Dreamliner 2 can move up to position 3 and Dreamliner 3 can move up to position 2 to continue final assembly. This will leave the MOAB at position 1 free to accept Dreamliner 4. Currently the horizontal tail plane and the vertical tail plane (fin/rudder) are the only major parts of Dreamliner 4 in at Everett. It looks like Boeing will meet it's deadline in getting ZY998 out and starting work on Dreamliner 4 prior to June 30th.