Boeing up to 22 787 deliveries in 2012 more to follow

Boeing has delivered it 25 787 overall and 22nd of this year.  Boeing has also surpassed the most deliveries for one month and is now up to 6 787s delivered this month with the potential for 3 to 4 more by the end of this week.  ZA178, (LN 27, JA824J) was delivered yesterday afternoon and I believe it should fly away tonight.  There aren't any deliveries planned for today but I do believe we can see the first Charleston built 787 delivered this week to Air India, ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) as well as one more to ANA, ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) and one more to Ethiopian ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR).  It is possible for Qatar first 787, ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to be delivered but there is still no word on this. If all four aforementioned aircraft are delivered then Boeing would have achieved 10 deliveries in one month and would have delivered 29 787s to 7 customers.  The 2012 total would be 26 and they would need to deliver 8 airplanes per month over the next quarter to achieve 50 787 deliveries.. a doable but challenging task.

Qatar Airways 787 delivery delayed due to IFE, internet connectivity issues

The expected delivery of Qatar Airways' first 787 is being delayed because of issues with the IFE and specifically the Internet connectivity that the airline is equipping on its 787 fleet.  They continue to test the aircraft even as far as flying it to Yuma Arizona on Sept. 20th and back.  The Qatar Airways' delivery team from Doha is in Seattle right now so there must be hope that the issues would be resolved soon.  No date has been set for delivery at this time.  In related news, Strategic Aero has an interesting article about 777X and Qatar pushing Boeing to offer the aircraft for sale.

Boeing does continue to fly several Dreamliners that are slated for delivery soon including those for United, ANA (2), JAL and Ethiopian.  These airplanes maybe delivered this week into next week and it is rumored that United pilots took out the 1st 787 for it's final customer test flight today prior to delivery.  It does seem that Boeing is making a big push to get many of the 787s out the door as possible before the end of the month (and end of quarter).  Here are the planes that I see possibly being delivered in the last 10 days of September:

Air India
ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)

ANA
ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A)
ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A)

JAL
ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J)

Ethiopian
ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR)

United Airlines
ZA288 (LN 53, N20904)

Qatar Airways (tentative)
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)

If Boeing can get these seven airplanes delivered (they're very close) then they would have delivered 10 787s this month.

Updated 787 delivery information

Activity around Everett has increased in recent days as far as the 787 is concerned.  ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) continues pre-delivery test flight, ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) performed a customer test flight and ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) conducted its B-1 flight).  Even though August is almost one half over a posting on airliners.net says that there will be 7 Dreamliner deliveries made this month not including deliveries to Air India.  The delivery train starts this Monday (August 14th) with first delivery to Ethiopian of ZA262.  Less than a week later ZA100 will deliver to ANA on the 20th.Qatar Airways is scheduled to be the 4th carrier to take the 787 (ZA461) around August 22nd followed by LAN (ZA536) on August 27th.  ANA takes one on August 28th (ZA119). Both JAL (ZA182) and ANA (ZA118) take one each on August 30th.  Again this schedule is subject to change and many of these deliveries can move to a later date.  If this schedule holds then it would be the most 787s delivered by Boeing in one month and will add 3 new airlines flying the 787. 

It is possible that Air India could be added this month but they are having a very hard time arranging financing to pay for the jets that are ready for delivery and is reflective of their financial distress.  It is unknown if Boeing will penalize them for not taking delivery in a timely manner but Air India has been aware that these airplanes are ready for delivery but chose not to pursue financing until after they got approval to take delivery from the GoI.  This reinforces the view of many that this is a very poorly managed airline.  The Air India -787 saga continues, unfortunately.

September is also promising to be just as good as August was in terms of '87 deliveries with United and China Southern both taking their first airplanes.  All September deliveries are tentatively scheduled for the second half of September and kcks off with Ethiopian taking delivery of ZA264 (LN 71, ET-AOR) on Sept. 18th as well as United (ZA288, LN 53, N20904) also signing for its first 787 on the same day.  Two days later Japan Airlines will take its 6th 787 which is an early build Dreamliner, ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J).  ANA takes a 787 which is the first 787 to be rolled out without needing to go to the EMC.  ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) should deliver around September 25th.  Qatar Airways will take its second 787, ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCD) on September 27 but also delivering on that date will be the first '87 for China Southern.  This airplane is ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727). 

All together this is 13 787s that is scheduled to be delivered over the next 6 weeks and will take Boeing to 25 787 delivered in 2012 not including tentative deliveries to Air India if and when that happens.  By the end of September, if all goes according that what I laid out in this post, then there will be 7 customers flying the 787 by the end of the third quarter possibly 8 with Air India.

787 work continues despite GEnx engine issue

Work continued apace at both Everett and Boeing Charleston on the 787s that still need to be delivered.  In fact the number of planes that are in pre-flight is steadily increasing at Everett as in the number of airplanes that are entering change incorporation.
Tomorrow United Airlines will unveil it's first 787 as it is being rolled out of Boeing's paint hangar.  The rollout can be viewed by clicking here.  The roll out of ZA288 (LN 53, N27904) is to start at 8:30AM EST, 5:30AM PST. While United is unveiling it's newest addition this airplane won't actually be delivered for another 6 to 8 weeks.  It will join a gaggle of pre-flight 787s that are on the Everett ramp. 

Another JAL 787 just finished change incorporation (ZA178, LN 27) is currently in the paint hangar and most likely will be delivered sometime next month.  The number of 787s that are in change incorporation have also increased.  There are 4 Dreamliners in 40-24 for change incorporation and EMC has a full complement of 5 airplanes with another 4 outside of the hangar that are also being worked on. 

Boeing is still maintaining 35 - 42 787s to be delivered this year but it certainly looks like they have the ability to deliver more.  The long pole in the tent is issues like what cropped up with both engines (Trent 1000 and GEnx-1B) over the last few days with the GE being the most serious of the issues.  However, I do not anticipate that these events are going to be show stoppers in terms of continued delivery and safe operation of the airplanes that are or will be in service. 

Most of the noise is due to the media making it out to be more of a bigger deal just because of the history of the 787.  Scott Hamilton has put out a post where he believes that the GEnx engine problem on Saturday is a non-issue.  The NTSB is investigating and the engine which shed the parts will be torn down to discover what the problem may be.  Given that the GEnx engine is flying on both the 787 and 747 and hasn't experienced an issue thus far in revenue service of either of those airplanes.  It is too early to say if this issue will delay any 787 deliveries but GEnx powered 787s were flying today with one more flight scrapped before take off at Everett. In my opinion 787s will continued to be delivered this month.

Boeing asked to pay for Air India's mistakes and ineptitude

How much does Air India want Boeing to pay for AI's mismanagement and incompetence...$1,000,000,000.00.  That amount is equal to over $37mm per 787.  Now Boeing does owe Air India compensation for the delays but certainly $37mm is waaaay over the top.  What Air India wants Boeing to do is pay for years of bureaucratic mistakes and idiocy at the air line.  They couldn't even effectively merge Air India and Indian Airlines and the result is a huge strike that is financially hurting the airline.  Now Air India want Boeing to pay for the financial costs of the strike.

Air India, of course, has no where to go and at the end they will have to blink.  Boeing can easily deliver these airplanes to another customer though Boeing would have to hold on the the 787s while the BFE (buyer furnished equipment) is delivered to them for installation.  Air India would be without the fuel efficient aircraft it so desperately needs to remain competitive with Emirates, Qatar Airways and other international carriers and it will further hurt their bottom line.  I certainly hope that Boeing doesn't blink.  They shouldn't be held hostage due to Air India's extremely poor decision making.  Here's an Op-Ed from the New York Times regarding the Air India situation:

NYT:  Air India’s Boeing Showdown Could Be a Mistake

In other news, I got wind of the 787s that are in the EMC at Everett.  They are:

Bay C, ZA262, LN49, Ethiopian
Bay B, ZA382, LN43  China Southern
Bay A, ZA380, LN34, China Southern
Bay D, ZA287, LN52, United
Bay AW, ZA178, LN27, JAL

Quite interesting that ZA100, LN 7 is not there anymore.  I don't know where it is hiding but it was at EMC for a good long while.  I have to wonder if it's close to being delivered? Well we all know that there weren't any 787 deliveries in May but it could be setting up for a big June for the 787 program.  There should be 4 787s for ANA and 1 for Qatar that would be delivered this month.  If Boeing and Air India come to an agreement then that is another 3.  I also expect that the first 787 to go from assembly line to flightline would be pulled out in a couple weeks.  ZA135 (LN66) could sneak in under the wire to be delivered to ANA in June though the chances are remote but it would certainly be delivered by end of July.

May 2012 787 Deliveries

I just got information from a source that Boeing MAY only deliver just 1 787 which will be ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) for Air India.  Given that the other two 787s (ZA506, LN 47, JA809A and ZA507, LN48, JA810A) that are on the flight line have not even flown there may be a lot of truth to this though they can still be delivered if Boeing conducts company and customer test flight over the next 3 weeks.  I am not sure for the delay but it does appear that Boeing may be setting for quite a few deliveries in June.  There has been speculation of which 787s that are in Boeing's EMC.  I've gotten some of that information and it does appear that the following ANA 787s are inside the EMC: ZA100 (LN7), ZA508 (LN 51), and ZA509 (LN 56).  Additionally there is a JAL 787 most likely ZA178 (LN 27).  There is another 787 which may be for either United or Qatar.

787 Certification Flight can start as early as January 3rd

Sources have told me that certification flight testing on the 787 can start again as early as January 3rd though it still depends on the results of the Boeing flight tests (testing the software fix) and the FAA's final approval to resume the certification program.

ZA004 made a successful return to test flight yesterday by flying a 1 hour and 35 minutes test flight around the Seattle/ Puget Sound region.

Here's the current flight test statistics that I've been keeping:



On Dec. 20th there was a line move and the 31st 787 (ZA117/LN31 for ANA) entered final assembly in Boeing's 40-26 final assembly building. LN 27 (ZA178 for Japan Airlines) went to the paint hangar. I have a fully updated spreadsheet below of the current status of the 787s around Everett:

ZA002 to fly back to Boeing Field, Boeing still expects to issues new schedules in the next several weeks

Boeing spokesperson Lori Gunter issued a press release saying that ZA002, the 787 that had been damaged in a fire almost a month ago, has been repaired and is scheduled to return to Boeing Field soon. Boeing did not give a specific date but Flightaware shows that ZA002 will be flying back today. Boeing had fully repaired the aircraft and performed ground test to validate the repairs. There won't be any flight test activities performed on the airplane during the ferry flight back to Boeing Field.

Flightaware ZA002 track

Here's Boeing's press release:

ZA002 Returning to Seattle

Boeing has readied ZA002, the 787 flight test airplane that experienced an electrical fire on Nov. 9, to be flown from Laredo, Texas, to Seattle. Maintenance technicians replaced the damaged P100 power distribution panel, repaired damage to interior composite structure and installed new insulation material.
The team in Laredo, Texas, has completed a series of ground test operations and
inspections to validate the repairs. The flight, which is expected to occur soon, will not include test operations.

In related news Boeing Commercial Airplane chief, James Albaugh said that Boeing still has more work to do in order to finalize plans for the necessary modifications and fix to the power distribution system and then develop a schedule based on that and probably other considerations in the program. Albaugh is saying that there will be a schedule slip which is expected but has not yet said how long that slip would be. His comments were to Reuters. You can read the article by clicking HERE.

Still all this is not sitting well with customers for the 787. ANA is demanding a new schedule as well as details about the problem that caused the fire and subsequent power problems. Qatar Airways has called the 787 a "failed" program though it seems that they're still holding on to their order for 30 787s. China Eastern Airlines is saying that they will cancel their order for 15 787s though Shanghai Airlines, which is owned by China Eastern, has not said if they too will cancel.

It is too early to tell if customers will stick with Boeing and the 787 until the revised schedule is out.

Still Boeing is still continuing with production with the 31st 787 to be loaded into position 1 today or tomorrow. This airplane, ZA117, is destined for ANA. ZA178 which is for Japan Airlines will be rolled out to the paint hangar.

Ground test continue to be performed on the 787 test flight fleet in lieu of flight tests as well. Boeing is also making progress in terms of getting the other 787s ready for flight tests and delivery. As had been reported earlier, a 787 destined for Japan Airlines received it's GEnx-1B engines this past weekend and one of the production 787 that will undertake flight/ground testing was rolled out to the flightline. I had reported that this airplane was ZA102 but it might be ZA101 which is to take part in ground tests though I'm working to try and confirm which aircraft is actually out on the flightline.

Flightblogger reported today that production airplanes will be flown to San Antonio, Texas where they will go through the change incorporation program prior to being delivered. Flightblogger is reporting that the Japan Airlines 787 (ZA177) will be the 3rd or 4th 787 to be delivered. It seems that now production airplanes are starting to get their powerplants in preparation for the flights to San Antonio though when these airplanes will be flown will be determined by the new schedule that Boeing should put out in the next several weeks.

Flightblogger: Repairs complete in Laredo, ZA002 to return home to Seattle

Lastly, I am still standing by my earlier prediction of a three month delay for 787 deliveries.

Flightblogger talks 787 production and horizontal stabilizers

Now that Alenia has effectively shut down 787 production for another 2 weeks....flightblogger revealed in a new post that the Italian company actually may have shut it down for much longer. The reasoning.....there hasn't been a 787 line move since October 3. There were to have been two more line moves in the month of October whch did not occur. The reason is the needed rework of the horizontal tail assemblies that Alenia is responsible for. Boeing has a whole slew of people in Italy trying to get them back on track but it seems that Alenia's troubles probably run very deep.

With all the issues surrounding the horizontal stabilizer, Boeing chose to mocve the line which left ZA231 without a the tailplane. It was being reworked when the line moved and is now installed on airplane 27 (ZA178).

This has thrown 787 final assembly into a tailspin (pun intended) as the horizontal stabs for airplanes 26 to 29 are being reworked as well as those that are already on the fully assembled production airplanes. Stabilizers meant for certain palnes are being installed on others. This won't be a problem as it is a common part, of course, but it does illustrate what the problems at Alenia has caused downstream in the production process.

Here's how things are laid out in building 40-26 in terms of HTP-airframe

Airplane 25 --> HTP #25
Airplane 26 --> HTP #29
Airplane 27 --> HTP #26
Airplane 28 --> HTP #27
Airplane 29 --> HTP #28
Airplane 30 --> HTP #30 --- this is where Boeing will be back to a normal assembly routine.

As evidenced by the number of 787s on the Boeing flightline where the HTP has been disassembled, it is evident that the problem is quite serious with many of them requiring rework prior to delivery. Boeing has set up a tool to allow easy access to the areas of the HTP that need rework but it's clear that the first 23 production airplanes will have quite a bit of work ahead of them before they are delivered next year. Flightblogger's article is a great read and does raise some flags with respect to Alenia. My sense is that if there is way Boeing can extract it self from Alenia it will. They have already indicated that the HTP for the 787-9 will probably come back in house and I think this is a certainty.

Flightblogger: A Closer Look: Inside the 787 delivery hold and horizontal stabilizer issues

787 Flight Test Time Exceeds 1,800 hours; ZA006 starts its engines; Boeing possibly moving more 787 production in house

Lotsa headlines since I haven't posted over the last week.

There's been a good amount of progress with the test flight program over the past week with 4 of the 5 787 flying from remote locations around the world. ZA001 has been flying out of Edwards AFB and later Roswell Air Center for take off and landing trials. ZA002 was in Iceland until last Wednesday getting crosswind testing under the 787's belt. ZA003 is still in Yuma, Arizona undergoing its hot weather flight testing. ZA004 is still doing flight loads survey testing out of Victorville, California. ZA005 is the only 787 to stay at Boeing Field though it was rejoined by ZA002 by mid week.

Thus far the test flight team has accumulated over 1,800 flight hours and in the first 9 days of September has flown over 130 hours which is on pace to put the 787 at 400 flight test hours if this current trend continues. That would be the most flight hours flown in one month since May which saw over 329 flight hours flown. Boeing has been flying the 787 with more frequency lately and they seem to be making good headway with the test flight fleet.

ZA006, the last of the test airplanes finally turned on its GEnx-1B engines for the first time. This aircraft's first flight has been delayed by about four months due to many small unspecified issues that cropped up. The airplane is expected to go through gauntlet testing soon and the latest I've heard for first flight is September 24th. This aircraft will be testing electromagnetic effects, high intensity radio frequency testing and ETOPS (extended twin engine operations) testing.

An article by Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times is reporting that Boeing is expanding its composite development and manufacturing center in Puget Sound area. This expansion, initially will support the manufacture of test sections for the 787-9 but may be used to supply the horizontal stabilizers (part that Alenia has built and whose workmanship issues have helped pushed the 787 entry into service into 2011) and wings when Boeing is planning increase the monthly output of 787s to 10 per month though the article says that Boeing Japanese and Italian suppliers will continue to manufacture those parts. Boeing is saying that no decisions have been made with respect to bringing more manufacturing in house.

Additionally, Dominic reported that a separate facility will be built in Salt Lake City, UT to build the vertical tail fins for the 787. Currently, the Boeing facility in Frederickson, Wa is only facility to manufacture the vertical fins. With the planned increase in 787 production to 10/month, this facility will provide the vertical fins to support that increase.

Dominic Gates: New Boeing plan: Expand work in Seattle

Early in the month, Flightblogger had a blog post reporting that Boeing will be retiring the large tooling tower that is used to assemble the 787 in the first position on the 40-26 final assembly building. The tool, known as MOATT, has apparently not lived up to its expectation and instead Boeing will use cranes and other traditional assembly processes to snap the 787 together. Additionally Boeing is working through the horizontal stabilizer issues at Alenia especially making sure that the workmanship issues do not reappear as well as reworking the first 26 horizontal stabilizers if they need rework. Currently, Boeing is in a production hold with airplane 27 in final assembly. Airplane 28 is not expected to start final assembly until later this fall thus allowing the rest of the supply chain to catch up and to eliminate travelled work going into Everett.

Flightblogger: Boeing continues search for 787 production equilibrium

Lastly, there is an interesting article out on Boeing San Antonio and the work they'll be doing to prepare 787s for delivery to customers. The summary is that some of the 787s will be flown to San Antonio in order to incorporate final system and mechanical changes into the 787 before the aircraft gets their interiors and are delivered to customers. Boeing has planned that San Antonio would do some of the change incorporation work based upon the flight tests that are now on going. There's no date when the first 787 will be sent for change incorporation but some airplanes will undergo change incorporation in Everett while some will have it done in San Antonio.

Boeing S.A. to troubleshoot 787

Boeing flies 500th 787 flight; ZA006 to make an appearance soon

Milestones keep adding up for the 787 program. Tonight, Boeing flew the 500th flight of a 787 with ZA004 completing a flight loads survey test flight over the Pacific Ocean. Boeing still needs to fly the Rolls Royce powered 787 another 991 hours over the next three months if it hopes to certify and deliver the 787 to ANA in time.

Meanwhile Boeing should be pulling out the last test flight 787, ZA006 powered by the GEnx-1B engines out to the fuel dock sometime tomorrow. It will then go back in the hangar for a couple days and then back out to the flightline to continue preparations for flight testing. First flight is penciled in for September 12th though that may have changed.

Lastly, another 787 will enter final assembly tomorrow. ZA178 (LN 27) is a GEnx-1B powered aircraft for Japan Airlines. It will be the last 787 to enter final assembly for about 6 weeks as Boeing is attempting to help the supply chain get caught up and to greatly reduce the travelled work coming into Everett. Boeing is aiming to increase production to 2.5 airplanes/month this fall.

Horizontal tab problems show up on the 787 and other news

Dominc Gates' article on June 24th that revealed Boeing is temporarily halting test flights because of workmanship issues with the horizontal stabilizer's shims and fastener torquing came as a complete shock to those following the program. The problem was bought to attention of Boeing managers on the previous day and Boeing ordered that all 25 assembled horizontal stabs (also known as the tail feathers) be checked of the issue. Boeing acknowledged that some of the parts on the tail feathers may have to be replaced so that the fatigue life of the horizontal stabs is not shortened due to the improperly installed shims and the over torquing on the fasteners. Boeing will inspect each of the test flight 787s starting with ZA002 and ZA003 since these two airplanes are performing their flight tests when the stop flying order was issued. ZA001, ZA004, and ZA005 are in the middle of planned layups and they will be the next to be inspected. Each inspection should last a day or two which means that ZA002 and ZA003 should already be inspected by now. If they are found to need fix, the 8 days that these airplanes will out of service should not effect Boeing test flight plans terribly. I have no word on the results of the inspections as of yet.

If problems are found on any of these aircraft they still may fly though under a reduced flight envelope so as not to strain and fatigue the horizontal stab. It will take Boeing about 8 days to repair each horizontal stab if problems are found. For the production aircraft this won't affect their delivery since these airplanes are not flying and can be easily repaired before delivery. Boeing will focus on fixing any of the issues with ZA001 through ZA006 as these are the test flight airplanes and getting them fixed and returned to flight test will be a priority.

I don't think there will be much effect on the flight test program and their is some margin in the test flight schedule. Boeing main issue to discover who this problem got past quality control and develop methodologies to make sure manufacturing errors like this don't occur. The issue also is why Alenia is having so many manufacturing issues with their product that they deliver to Boeing.

Boeing also says that they're going to go ahead with plans to bring ZA003 to Farnborough next month though they have not finalized those plans as of yet. If they do bring it it will go a log way to repairing Boeing's image vis a vis the 787.

Boeing also announced a production related change. There will production slow down in September due to resequencing of part deliveries into Everett for final assembly. This is due to customers taking different delivery dates. This will allow Boeing suppliers to catch up and to improve the supply chain health. Boeing is planning to implement the resequencing after airplane 27 (ZA178, LN 27) is delivered. Boeing indicated that the resequencing of deliveries shouldn't impact deliveries in 2010 and 2011 to customers.

In some other 787 news, Vietnam Airlines announced that they are switching their order from the 787-8 to the 787-9. The reason being is that the airline believes that the -9 will be a better performer than the -8. This came on the heels of Boeing announcing 3 more 787s orders from an unidentified customer.

Lastly, ZA006 which will be the last test flight 787 to take flight won't fly on July 13th as previously reported but now has been pushed back to July 26th. This is before the horizontal stab issue came to light. I don't know if the new problem will further push back ZA006's first flight or not but this airplane has to be inspected first.

Dominic Gates : Boeing Halts Flights for 787 Inspection

Dominic Gates : Dreamliner Chief Says Production Will Slow In September

Flightblogger : Gaps in horizontal stabilizer prompt another Alenia 787 quality issue

Flightblogger : Boeing plans additional re-sequencing of 787 parts deliveries

Flightblogger : Boeing starts 787 horizontal stabiliser inspections

Guy Norris : Boeing 787 Test Flights Halted

Aubrey Cohen : Boeing finds glitch in 787 horizontal stabilizers

Aubrey Cohen : Boeing inspecting 787s, plans to slow production in September

Flightglobal : Vietnam Airlines switches 787 order to -9s

Bloomberg : Boeing Says 787s May Need New Tail Parts After Inspections

Randy Tinseth : 787 inspections prioritized

Geoffrey Thomas : Boeing to bring 787 to Farnborough, happy with flight testing progress

787 Happenings

Boeing and the FAA continues on the certification flight test path with the test flight fleet accumulating just under 575 flight hours. Interestingly, flights that occurred yesterday were not posted on Flightaware for some reason and flight notifications are not being sent from Flightaware for any 787 flight.

Next week one 787 is going to fly to Colorado Springs Airport for more flight testing around May 11th. I surmise that this trip to Colorado might be for high altitude flight testing. ZA001 should return to flight test today or tomorrow and ZA002 will be flying towards the end of this week. ZA005 is still scheduled to make its first flight towards the end of May while ZA006 will follow by mid June.

Lastly, I have been keeping track of the 787 production and I found out that 4 of 5 787s for LN 26 to LN 30 will be going to Air India. LN 25 (ZA230), LN 26 (ZA231), and LN 28 (ZA232) to LN 30 (ZA234) will be for Air India. LN 27 (ZA178) will be a Japan Airlines bird. I expect that these airplanes will be in final assembly this fall.