Boeing delivers an anemic 5 787s in November.

So you know how I said that I thought Boeing can deliver 10 to 12 787s last month...boy I didn't even come close.  Instead they delivered an anemic 5 aircraft last month despite all the activity with many of  the aircraft that are still parked in Everett and Charleston.  Boeing has maintained that they will deliver more than 60 787s this year an though the expectations was for a number closer to 68 tor 69 Boeing will still claim that they will have hit their target if all they deliver is 61 in 2013.  They would have met their guidance though I think it would have been a disappointment.

That said, I still do believe they can deliver 64 airplanes this year.  Thus far, Boeing has delivered 56 aircraft including 2 in December. They have the potential to deliver 8 more aircraft even though they can deliver just 5 more and meet their guidance. 

Lately Boeing has been running a few test flights on two frames built in Charleston: ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) for China Southern Airlines and ZA187 (LN 125, JA833J) for Japan Airlines.  I believe that these are final customer flights meant to wring out any further squawks that customer reps have found.  These airplanes should deliver soon but along with those I do expect further deliveries to Hainan, QANTAS (Jetstar) and the first 787 business jet to the UAE Presidential Flight.

Here's my list of expected 787 deliveries in December:

China Southern - 2 aircraft - ZA386 and ZA381
Hainan Airlines - 2 aircraft - ZA432 and ZA435
Japan Airlines - 1 aircraft - ZA187
QANTAS (Jetstar) - 2 aircraft - ZA216 and ZA217
UAE Presidential Flight (leased from ILFC) - 1 aircraft - ZA560

787-9
787-9 seems to be making fairly good progress and the flight test program is slowly coming up on three full months of flight testing. It is expected that the flight test/certification program will continue for another 3 to 4 months and first delivery to Air New Zealand should occur around July 2014.  The first production 787-9 (ZB197) was rolled out of 40-26 on November 20th and placed inside the Everett Modification Center (EMC).  This aircraft will deliver to ANA probably later in the summer.  The second production aircraft and the first to deliver to the launch customer is ZB003 is still a couple months away from starting final assembly but both these airplanes will be used for F & R (functionality and reliability) testing as well as other FAA mandated tests which needs to be completed on a production standard aircraft.  The three flight test aircraft will be refurbished with 2 going to Air New Zealand and the 3rd (GE-powered) 787-9 flight test aircraft is rumored to be going to Japan Airlines.

Lastly, two 787 that were most recently rolled out the final assembly building in Everett were taken not to the flightline but to the EMC.  There was confusion related to this and many speculated that it is due to some "issues" that the 787 might be experiencing though nothing has come up that would warrant that kind of speculation.  The two aircraft are ZA586 which is another ILFC leased business jet and ZB197, the aforementioned 787-9 for ANA that will be used for testing.  First ZA586 is probably there to get some specialized work down related to its cabin installation after delivery.  Nothing unusual there.  ZB197 is not needed for another couple months and will probably have some minimal flight test equipment installed.  Either way I don't think it's a sign of anything amiss in the 787 program.

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Boeing increases 787 flight tempo to make a push for November month end deliveries

This past weekend, Boeing flew a number of 787s in a push to deliver them by the end of the month which will be shortened by the Thanksgiving Holiday.  Boeing had to fly a number of B flights as well as functional check flights (FCF) on several aircraft before proceeding with customer test flights. The increased temp in the last three days indicated that Boeing wants to deliver these airplanes relatively soon. Several flights were performed on aircraft destined for Hainan (2), Jetairfly (TUI), Air India, and Norwegian Air Shuttle.  On Friday, Boeing performed test flights on two 787s for China Southern.  I don't think these two are ready for delivery and may require more test flights this week.  Boeing can still deliver 787s for the first 3 days of this week and on Friday after Thanksgiving  Here's the ones that I think should deliver this week:

Norwegian (ZA650, LN 136, EI-LNC)
Japan Airlines (ZA187, LN 125, JA833J)
TUI (Jetairfly) (ZA327, LN 137, OO-JDL)
Hainan Airlines - 2 - (ZA432, LN 79, B-2729) and (ZA435, LN 131, B-2731)
China Southern Airlines - 2 - (ZA381, LN 36, B-2726) and (ZA386, LN 104, B-2737)

All of these airplanes have flown a comparable number of test flights compared to those previously delivered to the same airline.  If these airplanes are not delivered this week then more than likely the delivery will be made next week.  If Boeing can deliver even 5 of these airplanes this week, it will be a very good month for them delivery wise.

Since Boeing has increased the production rate to 10/month, they're under increasing pressure to move airplanes off the flightlines and into customer hands lest the production 787s start to crowd the Everett and Charleston tarmac again.

For next month I don't see it being much of a stretch for Boeing to deliver 10 to 11 787s in a push to pad the year end numbers.  During the next 36 days (between now and year end) I can see Boeing pushing out 2 more 787s from Charleston and 6 more from Everett (including one that will pull out by the end of November). Most of these will be delivered in January.  At Everett, ZA188 (LN 152) will be the last aircraft to go to the flightline this year to prepare for delivery.  At Charleston ZA294 (LN 145, N26910) will be the last one to be pulled out of 88-30.  Of course, Boeing may surprise us and also pull out ZA564 (LN 155) and ZA447 (LN 156) for a total of 10 787s in December.

My final number for 787 deliveries for 2013 is 66 plus or minus 2.

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Boeing starting to push 787 output rate higher; Fog lifts (for now) in Everett

According to the firing order for Everett, Boeing is planning to gradually increase the production rate at Everett using both the permanent and surge line.  Boeing had placed 4 current in production 787s on the surge line in 40-24 leaving open the first two positions on the main final assembly line in 40-26 open.  The last two positions are occupied with ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) and ZA560 (LN 141).  This allows Boeing to increase the production rate without impacting any upstream or downstream airframes.  Starting next week, Boeing will be loading a 787 every 4 to 6 days.  In 40-26 the period between loadings looks to be about 10 days while in 40-24 the period between loadings appears to be about 10 to 11 days.  This means that a 787 should be going through each line in about 40 days or less.  When Boeing loads a 787 every 3.5 days in Everett (between both main and surge lines) they will be hitting a rate of about 8.5 787s per month which coupled with the 1.5/month from Charleston allows the 787 program to attain the 10/month.  I think they'll still achieve this rate sometime in early to mid December.

The air around Everett is getting clearer, literally.  Everett has been plagued by a constant bank of fog over the past few days which has severally limited test flight operations of the 787.  It hasn't had an effect on flights from Boeing Field as ZB001 continues to fly from that airport.

Today alone Boeing sent up 5 production 787s from Everett and was planning to send a sixth one up on its first (B-1) flight. This airplane was ZA435 (LN 131, B-2731) and is slated for delivery to Hainan Airlines sometime next month.  Boeing is appearing to make a huge last push to get at 5 to 8 deliveries done by end of the month and it does seem plausible that they can do it. If they were to do this then they can at least match the most 787 deliveries in one month if not surpass it. They would also deliver the 100th 787 to a customer.  We'll know by next Friday if they were able to attain this.

In closing let me leave you with one last thought:

Always be yourself. Unless you can be Batman.. Then be Batman.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) October 25, 2013

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