First SC built 787 scheduled to fly this Friday

It's looking like Boeing is setting to fly the first Charleston built 787 this Friday. Randy Neville, a Boeing 787 test pilot fresh from the 787 World Tour flew ZA003 from St. Louis today then left for Charleston in order to take ZA237 (LN46) on its first flight scheduled for May 18th.  Randy was on ZA001 when it went up on its first flight on Dec. 15, 2009.  Now he's tasked with taking this very special 787 into the South Carolina skies.  This airplane should deliver in mid to late June.

Currently Boeing is conducting tests on ZA506 (LN47) which is destined for ANA.  However current information is that this airplane and ZA507 (LN48) will not deliver this month and is more likely to deliver in June.  This means that only ZA233 (LN29, VT-AND) will deliver this month to Air India.

Meanwhile Boeing had its Investors Day conference today.  There was no new information out of today's conference though it seems that Boeing is now studying a 787 production rate greater than 10.  They're still planning for a rate increase this fall to 5/month.

Where is Boeing's 787 inventory - May 14, 2012

I just got updated information on the location of Boeing's 787 inventory that is stored or in re-work around Everett.  The information is quie interesting as it shows that Boeing is focused on getting the late build 787s through change incorporation and out to the flightline.  Many of the 787s that are in the EMC are airplanes 49 to 58 including ones for Qatar Airways, JAL, ANA, and Ethiopian.  This shows that Boeig is focused on getting the late builds out the door first and then going back to fix the early builds which will take more time.

Meanwhile Boeing is flying ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) in preparation for delivery to Air India by the end of this month.  ZA237 (LN46) already has had its first engine run and Boeing is saying that its first flight should come within "days" though I expect it to be some time late this week to middle of next week.  This plane will deliver to Air India by the end oof June if not sooner though with Air India things could change given the turmoil within that airline.

May 2012 787 Deliveries

I just got information from a source that Boeing MAY only deliver just 1 787 which will be ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) for Air India.  Given that the other two 787s (ZA506, LN 47, JA809A and ZA507, LN48, JA810A) that are on the flight line have not even flown there may be a lot of truth to this though they can still be delivered if Boeing conducts company and customer test flight over the next 3 weeks.  I am not sure for the delay but it does appear that Boeing may be setting for quite a few deliveries in June.  There has been speculation of which 787s that are in Boeing's EMC.  I've gotten some of that information and it does appear that the following ANA 787s are inside the EMC: ZA100 (LN7), ZA508 (LN 51), and ZA509 (LN 56).  Additionally there is a JAL 787 most likely ZA178 (LN 27).  There is another 787 which may be for either United or Qatar.

Another reason why Boeing will deliver 50 787s this year

Ok so I'm in the midst of having an email conversation with Saj Ahmad over at Strategic Aero about 787 deliveries when I realize (the light bulb does go off sometimes) that there is another rational for believing that Boeing can reach 50 787 deliveries this year.  It all has to do with what we know about deliveries in January 2013.

We do know that Thomson Airways is to get its first 787 ZA317 (LN92) in January 2013. We can assume that Boeing will deliver airplanes 66 to let say 90 by December 2012 (I'm assuming 2013 deliveries will start with LN 91).  That is 25 airframes right there that will go from assembly line to flight line, that is 25 787s that will not have to spend time in change incorporation.  Boeing has already delivered 8 787s this year.  So we are already at 33 787s for 2012 and we have not even touched the undelivered 787s that are sitting around Paine Field trying to finish change incorporation.

So we do know that of those 48 remaining 787s that have yet to finish assembly and change incorporation are airplanes for Air India, Qatar Airways, LAN, ANA, JAL, LOT, China Southern, Royal Air Maroc, Ethiopian Airlines and United.  These airplanes will receive at least one if not more of the 787s this year that will be undergoing change incorporation.  That is at least 10 787 deliveries from the 787 inventory at Paine.  We do know that Air India, Qatar, ANA and United will receive more than 1 but we can also add JAL and China Southern to that list (all these come from the LN 7 to LN 65 lot of 787s).  That's 6 more 787s for total of 16 coming from 787 WIP.  We also know that Air India is to receive  4 787s this year from the Charleston plant so we should add three more to the total and that gets you 19 787 deliveries from the pre-LN 66 lot of airplanes.  Thus the math is as follows:

  8 - 787 delivered so far
25 - delivery of LN 66 to LN 90 to be made in 2012
19 - delivery of 787 WIP (defined as LN 7 to LN 65 that have not yet been delivered, this is currently a total of 48 airframes).

8+25+19 = 52.

Simple, isn't it? Now we can probably added a few more for carriers like RAM, LAN, Air India, China Southern, United, Ethiopian and ANA for this year but I am unsure about how far they have to go for change incorporation.  The upshot is that Boeing is very conservative with their 787 delivery numbers for 2012.

787 production update - May 3, 2012

787 production is starting to get interesting as there will be another line move tonight at Everett.  Boeing will push out ZA462 (LN62 for Qatar Airways) allowing the four positions to be occupied by airplanes 63, 64, 66 and 67.  The later two are planes that should not have to go through any change incorporation and will go direct from the assembly line to the flight line at Everett.  The main fuselage for airplane 67 should have been delivered last Friday night after Boeing had pushed out the first 787 to be built at Boeing Charleston.  That 787, ZA237 (LN46) is on its way to finishing the 96 assembly tasks that are left before entering gauntlet testing and first flight which is projected to take place between May 18 and May 5th.  Delivery to Air India should take place by June 30th.  Also I got confirmation that ZA239 (LN 60) and ZA240 (LN65) are both for Air India and both are being assembled at Boeing Charleston.

In other production news, I got wind of Thomson Airways deliveries of their first 3 787s.  The first airplane for Thomson will be ZA317 (LN92) which should start assembly late this year for delivery in January 2013.  This will be followed by ZA318 in February 2013 and ZA319 in March 2013.  The first and third airplanes will be based in Manchester while the second airplane will be based out of Gatwick all to support training and EIS of the company's 787.  These airplanes will carry 291 passengers of which 47 will be premium seating in 38 inch pitch seating while there will be 244 in economy in 36 and 33 inch pitch seats.

As far as deliveries this month, I fully expect 1-2 787 for ANA and 2  airplanes for Air India.

LAstly, I came across some interesting analysis with regards to deliveries of the 747-8 and 787s this year.  It is estimated that Boeing will have built, through the end of this year about 50 747-8 airplanes (F and I).  Of those 50, 9 were delivered last year leaving 41 potentially to be delivered this year.  Of those 41, 3 were for Atlas Air Cargo which they have stated that they will not take...that brings the number of deliverable aircraft to 38 for 2012.  However this number includes test airplanes that have yet to under go refurbishment including 2 for Cathay Pacific Airways and the second 747-8F built which is for NCA.  That brings the number down to 35 747-8 aircraft.  If Boeing is projecting between 70 to 85 747s and 787s to be delivered by the end of this year that means that Boeing can be in a position to deliver between 35 and 50 787s.  This is entirely possible as is starting to produce 787s that will go straight from the production line to the flight line and into testing.

2 more JAL 787s to deliver tomorrow

Boeing is set for another 787 double delivery to customer Japan Airlines.  This time two more late built 787s will be delivered on April 25th.  Fly away to Japan is expected around the 26th or 27th, in time for JAL to start 787 service to Moscow and Delhi in May.  Japan Airlines is expecting to have 10 787s in its fleet by March 31, 2013.  There are still 3 more JAL 787s at Everett that have yet to finish change incorporation.  The two 787s that will be delivered are ZA180 (LN 37, JA826J) and ZA181 (LN38, JA827J).

Boeing is preparing ZA506 (LN47, JA809A) for delivery to ANA.  This is probably not going to happen until May with it's first flight sometime in the first two weeks of May.  This will be ANA's 8th 787. Again Boeing is still clearing out the late and very late built aircraft but clearing out the first 23 787s built has been very slow (LN7 - LN29)

Additionally, it's expected that Boeing will finally deliver Air India's first Dreamliner though the first one ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) is still in San Antonio.  It's sister, ZA233 (LN29, VT-AND) has been flying around San Antonio and may be flying to Paine Field right now.  This airplane will still need to have its interior installed when it gets back to Everett so it won't be ready for delivery until late May at the earliest.

Finally on Friday Boeing will roll out the first 787 to be built at Boeing Charleston.  This airplane, ZA237 (LN46) is destined for Air India and should be delivered around June.  Given that this is the first 787 to be built at Charleston, Boeing will probably take its time doing the needed gauntlet testing before conducting its first flight.  Boeing will then send the plane to Amarillo, Texas where Leading Edge Aviation Services is contracted to paint the Charleston built Dreamliners.  Boeing Charleston doesn't have a paint hangar unlike Everett but I can see that changing with Boeing's acquisition of more land near the plant.  The airplanes will then be flown back to Charleston where the interiors will be fitted and further Boeing and customer test flights will be completed.

Tornadoes hit Boeing Defense plant and Spirit's plants in Wichita, production of 787 and 737 uncertain

Boeing was dealt a body blow on Saturday when tornadoes ripped through Wichita and severely damaged Boeing's BDS plants as well as the plants for Spirit AeroSystems 737 and 787 operations.

Thankfully there weren't any injuries or fatalities but production of 737 and the forward fuselage of the 787 may be severely impacted due to the power outage and damage caused by the storm.

Right now Spirit is telling employees not to report for work through Tuesday as they are still conducting damage assessments. Spirit is just one of a handful of Boeing 787 suppliers that have had very little issues with producing their work share of the 787. This could set Boeing back though if it does and by how much is still uncertain though Spirit is saying most of their capabilities are still intact. I don't know what they mean by capabilities.

From the photos that Spirit had posted on Flickr, the damage at least externally, looks to be pretty severe. I will try to follow this and report what impact, if any, these tornadoes have on 787 production.

First SC built 787 to roll out at end of April, 787 production update

Boeing announced that the first 787 built in North Charleston will roll out of final assembly on April 27th. This aircraft, ZA237 (L/N46), is destined for Air India and should be delivered this summer. Even though it is rolling out it will probably go through a more extensive battery of ground and gauntlet testing as this is the first 787 built outside of Everett where most of the assembly technicians are new to building this aircraft. After gauntlet testing Boeing will conduct a B-1 test flight and then fly the aircraft to Texas where it will be painted. It will return to North Charleston to finish pre-delivery Boeing and customer test flights. I don't know if it already has the customer interior installed but that could happen just before painting but after flying the initial test flight. In case the test flight has uncovered any issues that need to be corrected, Boeing techs will probably want unrestricted access to any areas. Interior fittings like seats, galleys, and restrooms can get in the way.

Lastly, I updated the 787 production firing order with LN71-LN75. One slight change is that LN 63 which was going to be for Hainan Airlines is now going to ANA with Hainan now getting LN 73. I was able to get some information on where these particular airplanes will be built as well. These 5 frames are, for now, scheduled to go to Ethiopian (2 frames), Air India, Hainan, and LAN. Interesting no new first delivery frames in this lot.

Boeing delivers 3 787s in March, three more on tap for April

Boeing was able to deliver three 787s to customers in March, 2 to Japan Airlines and 1 to ANA. It's looking like Boeing will be able to deliver 3 more in April. Again two to JAL and one more to ANA. In fact ZA105 (L/N 42, JA808A) is schedule to make its first flight today (April 1)...hopefully it's not an April Fool's joke by Boeing. Both ZA180 (L/N 37, JA826J) and ZA181 (L/N 38, JA827J) had their first engine runs though JAL's CEO was a little vague at the delivery ceremony for its first two 787s if the airline will take delivery in April. I still have no further information on their delivery timelines or for other 787s deliveries beyond ZA105.

Who's next?

So who else will be receiving 787s this year? Well in addition to ANA and JAL the known customers who have given updated delivery guidance will include:

Air India (May)
Qatar Airways (June just before Farnborough)
United (Fall, 2012)
LAN (Fall, 2012)
Polish LOT (Late 2012)

Other first deliveries may/should include Ethiopian and China Southern both airlines should receive them around late summer to fall though there hasn't bee any updated delivery guidance given by those two carriers. The first 787 for Hainan Airlines is supposed to start final assembly within the next couple of weeks though again there is no guidance on when this airplane will be delivered so it might be early next year as resources are used to get the earlier airplanes ready for delivery. Royal Air Maroc has two 787s out on the flightline though I am not sure when those are to be delivered and there has been no recent delivery guidance given by the airline. RAM was expected to take their first 787 in late 2011 but that is most assuredly pushed to late this year at the earliest if not sometime in early 2013.

Production

On the production line airplanes 58, 59, 61 and 62 are in positions 4 though 1 respectively in building 40-26. Airplane 60 will be built on the North Charleston line though I don't have a final assembly start date yet. This is an airplane for Qatar Airways. Boeing is closing on the start of assembly for airplane 66 which will be the first airplane that will go straight from the assembly line to flight testing and will have no need for change incorporation or any other work. This airplane is destined for ANA when it is complete. I can see this airplane being delivered around June of this year.

Boeing has delivered 5 787s so far this year and are expecting to deliver anwhere from 30 to 37 more 787s this year. That means they need to deliver more than 3 airplanes perr month for teh rest of this year if they are to attain that goal. If they deliver only 3 787s in April then they would have to deliver almost 4 airplanes a month for the remainder of the year to attain their goal.

JAL to receive first 787 this weekend, possibly two more next month

UPDATE: I have just got confirmation that both JA822J and JA825J will be formally delivered to Japan Airlines on Sunday, March 25. I still don't know if fly away will occur for both the next day or not and I'm still not sure if Boeing is delivering JA806A on the same day.

Japan Airlines is preparing to take ownership of its first and possibly second 787 this weekend. I'm still trying to find out but ZA177 (JA822J, L/N 23) and ZA179 (JA825J, L/N 33) are supposed to be delivered this month with at least one to be delivered this Sunday (March 25) and possibly both being delivered on the same day. Fly away is scheduled for Monday March 26th at 4PM local time. It does seem certain that both ZA177 and ZA179 will be delivered this month.

According to sources, JA806A (ZA117, L/N 40) for ANA is scheduled to be delivered on March 25th as well. It would be an unusual delivery day for Boeing with the company delivering 787s to two customers that are competitors. This is not yet final though and I am trying to confirm. This airplane should also be delivered in March nonetheless.

For April, Boeing is planning to deliver 3 more 787s also all to ANA and JAL. ANA is tentatively scheduled to receive ZA105 (JA808A, L/N 42) around April 17th. Boeing has pulled out two more 787s to the Everett flightline, JA826J (ZA180, L/N 37) and JA827J (ZA181, L/N 38). Both are tentatively scheduled to be delivered to Japan Airlines but the date is uncertain. Again all this is tentative.

One observation which is unsurprising is that most of these airplanes are late build 787s (L/N 33 and higher). Boeing is expecting to work on the early builds and deliver them from now until early 2014. Boeing's first delivery to Air India is also a late build airplane, VT-ANH (ZA236, L/N 35). This airplane was flown to San Antonio for unknown reason though I suspect it is to probably do some last minute work. This airplane should deliver in May. Going forward into the summer we should start seeing deliveries made to Qatar in addition ot AI, JAL and ANA. United will come later in the fall as will LAN, Ethiopian and China Southern.

GE powered 787 receives FAA type certification

Boeing's 787 powered by the GEnx-1B engines received it's type certification from the FAA today clearing way for deliveries to start to those customers who ordered the GE engine. Japan Airlines is expected to take two 787s powered by this engine at the end of next week. Air India was expected to be the first customer but that has been pushed back due to the compensation issue between AI and Boeing. The government of India now says that Air India will take all the 787s ordered. I anticipate the first one will be delivered in May.

Boeing is planning to deliver one Rolls Royce powered 787 to ANA this month.

Boeing's Press Release:

Boeing Receives Certification for 787 Dreamliner With GE Engines
EVERETT, Wash., March 20, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) received an amended type certificate today from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the 787-8 Dreamliner equipped with General Electric GEnx engines.

"This is a great day for our customers and for our team who worked tirelessly to ensure the Dreamliner offers breakthrough fuel efficiency, unprecedented performance and new levels of comfort," said Larry Loftis, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "We are pleased to accept the FAA's confirmation of the safety and reliability of this airplane."

The amended type certificate from the FAA formally recognizes that the 787 with GE engines has demonstrated compliance with rigorous federal regulations. The achievement caps off the most robust flight and ground test program ever conducted in the company's history.

"This milestone completes the certification of the 787-8 airplane, and allows airlines to now operate the GE engine-powered 787 with both the baseline Block 4 engine and the PIP1 engine upgrade," said Mike Sinnett, vice president and chief project engineer for the 787 program. "It also represents the success of a remarkable partnership with the regulatory agencies around the world."

"This is the culmination of extraordinary work by teams from GE and Boeing," said Chuck Nugent, general manager of the GEnx engine program for General Electric. "GE Aviation is honored to power the Boeing 787 Dreamliner with its new GEnx-1B engine, and we look forward to seeing the aircraft-engine combination flying the skies around the world."

Initial type certification of the 787 with Rolls-Royce engines took place in August 2011. Each new combination of an airframe type and engine requires additional certification to validate the integrity of the design.

60 customers around the world have ordered more than 870 Dreamliners.


With the this achievement, Boeing is now complete with the inital flight testing and certification activities for the 787, the Trent-1000 and the GEnx-1B. Boeing will still be conducting further company test flights in support of activities to find additional efficiencies in the aircraft as well as in support of further weight reduction efforts and testing of Trent and GE engine improvements (GE's PIP 2 and RR package "C" improvements). Of course flight testing and certification activities will start a new some time next year for the 787-9 and later in the decade on the proposed 787-10X.

Update to March 2012 787 deliveries

UPDATE: Boeing will be sending one of the 787 built for Air India to an Airshow in Hyderabad which is to take place next month. It will have a full interior as ordered by Air India but it won't be delivered as the Government of India is still debating, apparently, whether to accept the 787 into Air India. As such these aircraft, already built are in limbo due to the financial situation at Air India as well as AI's demands for $1bn in delay compensation. Again it seems that Air India is trying to get Boeing to pay for its own gross mismanagement of the air line. The 787 order is being held hostage due to this situation. ZA236 is goingto be flown to Boeing Field, ostensibly to prepare it for the show but also to help free up space at Everett. I can see Boeing flying more service ready 787s there in order to free up space at Everett.

I just got some updated delivery dates for 787 deliveries this month.

ZA117 (LN 40, JA806A) on March 21 for ANA
ZA177 (LN 23, JA822J) on March 29 for JAL
ZA179 (LN 33, JA825J) on March 29 for JAL

The two JAL deliveries moved up 2 days while the ANA delivery slide by 5 days. Again this information is preliminary and may change as conditions change at Boeing. Again no word on delivery to Air India of ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH). Special thanks to Snooze Control. I would also like to ask Snooze Control to send me an email to ureshs at aol com

Good news for the 787

The last week or so has provided some welcomed good news for the 787s. First was Boeing's announcement that they had increased the production rate to 3.5 aircraft per month. This was sooner than planned as Boeing had expected that the rate would be increased later this sprig. Boeing is still planning to be at 5/month by the end of this year though if the supply chain continues to show this sort of improvement then it may be sooner. This is a very, very good sign for the program.

The second bit of good news came out today when Boeing announced that they had completed the certification test program for the 787 with the end of the certification program for the GEnx-1B powered version of the Dreamliner. ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) had completed the final bit of F&R and ETOPs testing late last month and flew back to Everett. Boeing had also completed all the final ground tests that they needs to perform. I anticipate that Boeing should receive final type certification for the GEnx powered 787 in the next 1 to 2 weeks. This should still give the company time to deliver the first GE powered Dreamliner to Japan Airlines by March 31st. In fact ZA236 which just completed the certification test flights is back out on the flightline at Everett but painted in Air India colors this time indicating that this aircraft might soon be delivered soon.

Currently, information that I received a bout two weeks ago shows that Boeing has planned to deliver three 787s this month. They are:

ZA117 (LN 40, JA806A) on March 16 for ANA
ZA177 (LN 23, JA822J) on March 31 for JAL
ZA179 (LN 33, JA825J) on March 31 for JAL

In addition Boeing is not planning any B1 flights for any 787. The three aforementioned 787s have all had their B1 flights though they have yet to fly any subsequent pre-delivery flights. IT does seem that the shim issue has slowed down the pace of pulling out the prepared 787s to the flightline to begin the pre-delivery process. The other unknown is if ZA236 will be delivered this month. A lot of that will depend on if the airplane is ready and if Boeing and Air India have concluded negotiations on compensation for the 787 delays.

Lastly, now that the build rate has gone up in Everett, Boeing will still need to park those new 787s around Everett. Boeing has started parking 787s on the Kilo 6 (K6) taxiway at Everett. This taxiway is in the southwest part of the airport near the Flying Heritage Museum. The first one to be parked there was ZA288 (LN 53) for United Airlines. Space is becoming a premium at Everett and the pace of 747 and 787 deliveries has slowed. April will be critical as the 787s that are built at the newer rate will be pushed out the door and that means even more 787 on the Everett ramp unless Boeing starts to deliver those that are in re-work during April. As added pressure, Boeing is also upping the 747 rate to 2/month later this year.

Boeing Targets June For 787 Surge Line Startup | AVIATION WEEK

Boeing Targets June For 787 Surge Line Startup AVIATION WEEK

Shanahan talks about 787 at Barclay's Conference

UPDATE (2:30PM): PAt Shanahan also said during the conference that Boeign will start rolling out 787 that will not have any travelled work or need for change incorporaation starting with LN70. Previous Boeing has said this will occur around airplane 63-65.

Pat Shanahan talked up about the accomplishments of the 787 at a Barclays Capital Industrial Select Conference in Miami.

Currently the supply chain is producing at 3.5 planes per month but the final assembly is still at 2.5 per month. The rate on the assembly line is to go up to 3.5 this spring. Boeing expects to start the surge line in June of this year which will allow Boeing to move 787s down the line at a faster pace and allow for the increase in production rate. The surge line will be located in building 40-24 in front of the 767 line. Shanahan also said that the planes are leaving the line more complete. In the past there was 5,000 - 7,000 jobs left to finish when the 787 left the line. Now this number is down to 500 - 1,000 jobs per airplane.

With regarding the shims, Pat Shanahan said that the job of replacing the shims takes about 10 to 14 days per airplane but this work will be done concurrently with other jobs so as not to delay deliveries. The shim issue is just a manufacturing issue and there is no need for any redesign. The shim issue is not an issue for the fleet.

Getting close to the finish line

UPDATE (10AM) ZA236 is flying back to Everett today. This is a strong indication that F&R/ETOPs testing is complete. The F&R/ETOPs certification testing for the GEnx-1B powered 787s was based out of Boeing Field. With the airplane heading back to Everett the testing appears complete and this airplane can be released in order to prepare it for delivery to Air India.

Boeing's efforts to complete 787 flight testing with the GEnx-1B engines are close to being completed if they aren't finish already. ZA236 has flown just under 153 flight test hours thus far. The aircraft needed to fly about 150 F&R/ETOPs flight hours to finish the certification program for this version of the 787. Boeing has not confirmed that they are finished with the tests as of yet. The true indication that they are complete is when ZA236 flies back to Everett to finish preparations for delivery to Air India.



As far getting other 787s ready for delivery, there are about 10 787 at the Everett Modification Center that are undergoing change incorporation or shim inspection in the rear fuselage as well as one airplane in 40-24. Three of these airplanes were aircraft that are close to being delivered (to Japan Airlines or ANA) including ZA177 (LN23, JA822J), ZA179 (LN33, JA225J) and ZA117 (LN42, JA806A). Once these airplanes are inspected and repaired (if needed) then they will continue they typical preparations for delivery. The list of 787s at EMC is below with the locations highlighted in green. These are the airplanes I anticipate will be the next few that will be delivered. Interestingly enough these include a few of the very early build airplanes, ZA100 (LN 7), ZA534 (LN 10), and ZA501 (LN 12).



Jim Albaugh, speaking in Singapore has said that up to 55 787s would have to be inspected and repaired for the flaw. To put it in proper context, this would include all the airframes from LN 4 to LN 59, the latter of which is currently in position 1 in 40-26 and just starting final assembly. This number also includes the 5 airframes that have already been delivered to ANA but does not include any airplanes sections that have yet to be delivered to Everett for final assembly.

PDXLIGHT

I found this great website that has some pretty spectacular photos of 787s and 747s around Everett. It has some other interesting information on the MAX vs NEO order battle as well as current utilization of the 787s already delivered to ANA. Check it out:

PDXLIGHT

No 787 Deliveries in February

Information just received indicates that while Boeing will be preparing 787s for delivery including the first deliveries of the GEnx-1B powered 787s. However, none of these airplanes will be delivered this month. It looks like these airplanes are being delayed about three and a half weeks.

According to information just received, ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) will be delivered to ANA around March 14th. This aircraft just had its first flight on Feb. 7. Both JA177 (JA822J, L/N 23) and ZA179 (JA825J, L/N 33) are scheduled to be delivered to Japan Airlines around March 24 with ZA179 tentatively scheduled to make its first flight around Feb. 13th (ZA177 had its first flight last year).

Lastly, ZA105 (JA808A, L/N 42) is scheduled to make its first flight around Feb. 29th but no delivery date has been set.

Undoubtedly this schedule shift has been caused by the need to check the aft fuselage for improper shimming installation and to take corrective measures if any are needed. Flightblogger has revealed that the inspections would take about three days but any work to correct any problems would take about two weeks per aircraft. This new schedule would corroborate this time estimate.

Meanwhile, Boeing contiues F&R/ETOPs testing on ZA236. On Wednesday/Thursday this aircraft flew a long 19 hour flight essentially Etch-A-Sketching "787" and the Boeing Corporate logo in the skies over the Western and Mid-Western sections of the country. Thus far this aircraft has flown 48.5 hours. It is expected that this airplane needs to fly about 150 hours to finish the certification program for the GEnx powered 787s.

Boeing confirms the start of final testing phase for 787/GEnx certification

Boeing confirmed to me this afternoon that they have indeed started the final phase of certification testing for the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787. What is unknown is how many hours Boeing will need to fly this airplane in order to complete this final phase. Boeing is still planning to deliver the first 787s powered by this engine by the end of this month to JAL, though with the recent delamination issues that Flightblogger revealed on Saturday evening, this schedule may well be in doubt though Boeing says this will have no effect on production. Boeing doesn't expect the need to remove major structural assemblies to gain access to the affected area and make repairs to the shim which they have describe as straightforward.

Boeing starts final 787/GEnx F&R/ETOPs testing?

It looks as if Boeing may have started the final F&R/ETOPS testing for the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787 Dreamliner. ZA236 (L/N 35, VT-ANH), a production standard airplane destined for customer Air India and recently transferred to Boeing Field took off at about 11AM PST from Boeing Field and flew a 6h 40min test flight down and up the Pacific coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California before returning to Boeing Field. It is understood that ZA236 had transferred to Boeing Field was the express purpose of conducting the final F&R/ETOPs tests flights in order to gain final certification for this version of the 787.

It is unknown, at this time, how many hours still need to be flown for the final phases of this test program but when Boeing flew the F&R/ETOPs test for the Rolls Royce powered version of the 787, they ran it to 300 flight test hours with ETOPS testing being done concurrently with the F&R testing on the test flights. Boeing has already run some of hte F&R/ETOPs testing on ZA006, a test airplane which is currently undergoing re-work and refurbishment ot a production standard airplane in San Antonio. The FAA is requiring Boeing to fly some portion of hte F&R/ETOPs testing o na production standard airplane. This testing has been delayed due to technical issues with ZA236, the nature of which is currently unknown.

Assuming that Boeing will still have to fly 300 flight test hours and assuming that half of this testing done by ZA006 is considered complete by the FAA, then Boeing may have to run about 150 flight test hours on ZA236. Assuming about 8 flight test hours per flight that would mean that ZA236 would have to fly 20 days in order to complete final certification flight tests for the GEnx 787. That would leave roughly a week for Boeing to submit the final type certification paperwork to the FAA and to get their final review and approval so that Boeing can begin deliveries to JAL and Air India a the end of this month. This is very tight. Current Boeing plans show have that ZA177 (L/N 23, JA822J) and ZA129 (L/N 33, JA825J) are being prepared for delivery on Feb. 27th with ZA179 scheduled to make its first flight on Feb. 7th. Whether Boeing can hold to this schedule depends on the pace of the F&R/ETOPs testing and any issues that may be revealed as a result of this testing.

Additionally Boeing has an ANA 787, ZA117 (L/N 40, JA806A) tentatively scheduled for delivery around Feb. 19th with a first flight date of Feb. 7th. All these schedules are tentative schedules and may (probably) will change over the course of the next few weeks.

Another ANA 787 delivered, another being prepared

Lat night a Boeing crew flew out another ANA 787 for ANA destined for Haneda International Airport. This is ZA102, (JA804A, L/N 9) and one of the very early build aircraft that needed extensive re-work and modifications. It will probably be placed in domestic service. This is ANA's 5th 787 and there are two more waiting in the wings.

ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) made an appearance on the Everett flightline after passing the last few months insidethe EMC. Thanks to Johanny who gave us a link to a flickr page maintained by "Simpilot459" which shows this aircraft with lights on at the Compass Rose at Everett. This is scheduled to be the next 787 delivered.

See ZA117

However weather in the Pacific Northwest may become an issue over the next few days that may disrupt the delivery schedule. ZA236 (VT-ANH, L/N 35) was scheduled to fly yesterday but was postponed due to a winter storm that is hitting the Pacific Northwest. This storm is expected to dump snow in the region over the next few days. It's unlikely that this plane will fly its B-1 flight until the storm passes or is reduced in intensity. I'm estimating that it probably won't fly until the end of this week. Likewise, ZA117 is supposed to have it's B-1 flight around the 20th but this is looking increasingly unlikely as it was just pulled out of the EMC and will need to have its first engine start and other pre-flight activities done prior to the flight. I can't se this plane flying before the end of next week.

The end result is that deliveries will be delayed due to the storm as it moves the schedule to the right.

Boeing on verge of starting final GEnx/787 certification tests

UPDATE: Due to a winter storm in Washington State, it looks like ZA236's first flight has been put off. On a related note, ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is now scheduled to leave Everett at 7:15PM local for its delivery flight to Haneda.

A Flightaware alert just went up for BOE 236 this afternoon for takeoff around 1:45pm local time. The significance of this flight is that this is the first flight of the 787 that will undertake the last part of F&R/ETOPs certification testing that is required for FAA type certification of the GE powered 787.

This important testing was partially done by ZA006 a few months ago but FAA requires that some of the tests also needs to be done by a production standard 787. Boeing assigned ZA236, a 787 destined for Air India. The start of the final phase of this testing was delayed and rumor has it that the delay was attributable to lightning protection around the engine pylons for the GEnx-1B engines.

Today's flight should be a standard Boeing checkout flight and there will probably be a couple

More test flights before final F&R/ETOPs flight formally kick off.

Boeing is hoping to start GE/787 deliveries next month so I anticipate that this test should last 3-4 weeks with the aim of first GE powered 787 delivery to JAL at the end of February. However this is all predicated on all testing going well with no major issues being revealed.

787 flyaways

Tentative word is that ZA104 (JA807A, L/N 41) should leave today at about 6pm. It was officially delivered on the 12th. It will be flying as NH9397 departing for Haneda. Nothing up on Flightaware of yet but there is still a few hours to go.

ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is projected to be delivered today with a tentative flyaway date of January 16 at 7:15PM. It will also fly to Haneda as NH9397.

January 787 delivery update part 2

I just got this from a source but it may change depending on conditions at Everett. ZA104 (JA807A, L/N 41) may have been contractually delivered on Tuesday, January 10th. It may flyaway to Haneda Tokyo today, January 12th at about 6PM local time if delivery has been indeed made a couple days ago. Typically the flyaway is a couple days after contractual delivery though it varies from customer to customer and particular circumstances a t the time.

ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is scheduled to be delivered today and may flyaway a couple of days from now. There were no further test flights of both aforementioned aircraft since January 10th.

ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) is still scheduled (tentatively) for delivery on the 30th but this should be taken with a grain of salt as the aircraft has not appeared on the flightline yet.

Further I've gotten information that ZA236 (VT-ANH, L/N 35) may make its first flight around Jan. 16th though this is still up in the air (so to speak). This aircraft is to conduct the final portion of F&R/ETOPs testing on the GEnx powered 787 for certification purposes. If Boeing is able to get this part of the program completed in time with certification of of the GEnx 787s then They may be able to deliver two GEnx 787s starting in February. One each would go to Japan Airlines (ZA177, JA822J, L/N 22) and Air India (ZA236, VT-ANH, L/N 35). Boeing also has a 787 penciled in for ANA (ZA105, JA808A, L/N 42) next month.

There are no definitive delivery dates for these airplanes for obvious reasons and these airplanes themselves may not deliver next month due to continued issues revolving the amount of re-work and the allocation of resources to effectively deal with the amount of work. there should be further clarification of the 787 deliveries on about two weeks when Boeing has it's 2011 earnings conference call.

Additional January 787 delivery information

Ok this is coming to me from another source but now we have three Dreamliner deliveries coming up though this is all tentative. Here's the situation now and it seems to be improving:

JA804A (ZA102, L/N 9) to deliver on Jan. 9
JA807A (ZA104, L/N 41) to deliver on Jan. 11
JA806A (ZA117, L/N 40, first flight on Jan. 20th, deliver on Jan. 30

This information is regarded as preliminary as there can unforeseen issues to can derail any of these milestones. Also note that these dates are not the dates that ANA flies them to Japan but dates where contractual delivery is made and money has changed hands.

Fourth 787 to deliver soon

ANA's 4th 787, JA807A (ZA104, L/N 41) is scheduled to flyaway on Jan. 10 around 6PM local time, according to the latest schedule, as NH9397. This means that the offical handover should occur within a couple days before that. This all assumes that there are no other issues with the aircraft.

There is still no word on delivery and flyaway of JA804A (ZA102, L/N 9) but thoughts are it should be in around the middle of this month.

Dominic Gates has a few more details regarding the delays in the 787 deliveries in his article that came out this morning:

Dominic Gates: Boeing delivers more, and less, in 2011

JA805A flying out tonight; JA807A a maybe

UPDATE: It appears that ZA104 will not be going anywhere due to ongoing tech issues. This aircraft did fly today and will also fly tomorrow. There should be more clarification on its status later this week. Currently both this aircraft and ZA102 are scheduled for delivery in January but I do expect at least one more 787 to be delivered this month. Currently NH9397 has left on its delivery flight to Tokyo.

According to Flightaware, NH9397 (also known as ZA116, JA805A, L/N 31) will flying out to Japan on its delivery flight at 6 pm Pacific Time. According to sources this aircraft should be parked at gate 206 when it arrive at Haneda International Airport tomorrow morning.

The same sources said that NH9399 (also known as ZA104, JA807A, L/N 41) is scheduled to leave Everett at 7:15PM Pacific time and will be parked at gate 205 when it arrives at Haneda. ZA104 took an earlier flight around the Washington State area supposedly by ANA pilots so it is unknown if this plane has actually been delivered.

These two airplanes are fitted with the Trent 1000 package "B" engines which brings fuel consumption to within 1% of promised specifications. These airplanes will be employed on ANA's international routes beginning with Tokyo-Beijing later this month followed by Tokyo-Frankfurt next month.

In related news, Flightblogger posted this afternoon on the 787's delivery issues

Updated 787 info...no deliveries till Jan. 4th

UPDATE: The flyaway (from Everett) should occur on the 4th for 805A and 807A which means delivery (formal paper signing and transfer of money) should occur by the 3rd of January.

Just got a message as well as saw a posting on an airliners.net forum that all three 787s that were due to be delivered around now have "gone tech" meaning there is a maintenance related issue with all three airplanes.

JA805A (L/N 31, ZA116) was supposed to depart Everett 2 days ago and is now schedule to be flown out on Jan. 4th in an evening depature. JA807A (L/N 41, ZA104) will fly out the same day a little later after JA805A has left(it was to deliver on Dec. 30th and fly out a couple days later).

JA804A's (L/N 9, ZA102) delivery was also scheduled for Dec. 30th (fly out a couple days later) but also cancelled though for unknown reasons. It is not known when it will be ready for delivery though this aircraft has flown as recently as Dec. 30th (as had ZA104).

Currently there are no other 78 deliveries scheduled in January but this doesn't mean that Boeing will not deliver any more beyond the two aforementioned aircraft. The situation is very fluid and it is unknown if the issues affecting these two aircraft is something more endemic throughout all the 787s or if this a one off situation.

Dec. 31st - no sign of further 787 deliveries

Today is December 31st, 2011 and there has been no further evidence of any other 787 deliveries beyond the ones made in September and October.

This doesn't indicate that ANA and Boeing has concluded the formal signing over of the aircraft and transferring of money and signing of documents. That may well have happened already but no aircraft has left Everett bound for Japan as of yet and there has been no announcement from Boeing or ANA of the formal delivery of any of these airplanes. ZA116 (JA805A) is still in Everett and has flown both Boeing and customer flights but I don't know if there are more test flights that have yet to be done or if there is any more work that needs to be concluded on the airplane itself. This Dreamliner is probably the one that is closest to being delivered.

The other two airplanes ZA104 (JA807A) and ZA102 (JA804A) have done some customer flights out of Everett but probably need to do a few more flights before ANA formally accepts them. I do think that Boeing can deliver all three airplanes within the next week in order for ANA to meet its newly revised international 787 service schedule. It is to start Tokyo - Beijing service in the middle of January and Tokyo - Frankfurt service in February.

As far as other airplanes, ZA236 has yet to make a flight to start finish F&R/ETOPs testing on the GEnx powered 787. There is no word on when that will happen though it has run its engines for the first time just before Christmas though there was a small fuel fire 30 minutes into the engine run. I don't know what effect that has on the schedule as of now.

Possible Delivery Delay for GEnx powered 787?

Given that the delays to the 787 for ANA are well documented, Boeing is pushing hard to get three more Dreamliners into the hands of the airline before the end of the year. The revised delivery schedule for this month shows that ZA116 should deliver around Dec. 27 with ZA104 and ZA102 delivering on Dec. 30th. Of course this is all subject to change.

The knock on effects maybe felt to the GEnx powered 787s. Let's review first. Boeing has flown almost all the test points for FAA certification of the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787. The remaining test points that need to be completed is functionality and reliability testing and ETOPs testing. Now Boeing completed some of this testing on the flight test version of the aircraft but the FAA requires that some portion of this testing to be done on a production version of the plane. Boeing has assigned ZA236 (L/N 35, VT-ANH). When Boeing ran the F&R/ETOPs testing on the Trent-1000 version of the airplane it was done on ZA102 (which is being prepared for delivery) and lasted about 300 hours.

I am assuming that Boeing will have to fly a similar number of hours for the GE powered machine but some of those hours have been done on the test flight birds (ZA005 and ZA006). It is unknown how many more hours will be needed to finish certification testing.

ZA236 has yet to fly and it seems that resources have been diverted from preparing this airplane for flight to preparing the three aforementioned ANA 787s for delivery. Flightblogger had reported that Boeing was to fly ZA236 by the middle of this month but it's now looking that it will be later this month. For the Trent-1000 version, Boeing conducted the 300 hour F&R/ETOPs over a 51 day period during this past summer. Assuming that Boeing has to only fly half that amount (150 hours) with ZA236 (with the rest already done by the test aircraft) which means about 3 to 4 weeks of flight tests and that testing starts soon after the New Year, the test program can wrap up around the end of January. Figure a couple of weeks before the FAA issues the amended type certificate (middle of February) then deliveries can take place start in middle to late February. This is assuming that there aren't any production issues holding up these airplanes and no unexpected issues that are revealed during the final F&R/ETOPs testing.

Boeing's delivery forecast for the GEnx-1B was very early 2012 (January) and internal documents up until last week had Boeing delivering the first to Japan Airlines in January 2012. This is now not the case as the situation is still very fluid.

Charleston forges ahead

Boeing Photo

Boeing announced today that the first 787 to be built in their new plant in North Charleston has touched down on its wheels for the first time today. The weight on wheels means that this airplane will be rolled to the last final assembly spots for further assembly tasks. The airplane is destined for Air India and is designated ZA237, L/N 46. Boeing is expecting that this airplane should be delivered by mid -2012 but Jim Albaugh has indicated that it can be delivered earlier than that. It appears that this aircraft (from the photo above) is headed for the third position on the line where, according the the Boeing press release, it will receive mechanical, electrical and hydraulic systems and under go testing. Presumably it will head to position 4 for interiors and engine installation.

Here's the Boeing press release:

Boeing South Carolina Site Achieves 787 Weight on Wheels Milestone

Production achievement marks continued momentum on first 787 built at site

NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C., Dec. 20, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA)
announced today that its first South Carolina-built 787 put weight on wheels for the
first time on Dec. 18.

"Our Boeing South Carolina team has achieved another significant milestone, putting weight on wheels," said Jack Jones, Boeing South Carolina vice president and general manager. "This is a result of both great local talent and dedication and talent and knowledge assembled from across Boeing Commercial Airplanes."

The airplane moved on its landing gear, via tug, to the next production position where electrical, hydraulic and mechanical systems installation and testing will continue over the next several weeks. Installation of the airplane's engines and interior will begin soon.

"To achieve weight on wheels just 24 months after breaking ground on this new facility is incredible," said Marco Cavazzoni, Boeing South Carolina Final Assembly and Delivery vice president and general manager.

"This is a great testament to what can be done when a well-trained, knowledgeable and highly motivated team focuses on a common goal."

Boeing South Carolina remains on schedule for its first 787 Dreamliner delivery in the first half of 2012.

Made from composite materials, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner is the first mid-size airplane capable of flying long-range routes and will allow airlines to open new, non-stop routes preferred by the traveling public. As a result of innovative technologies, the airplane offers unparalleled operating economics, fuel efficiency and passenger comfort. More than 800 787s are on order by more than 50 airlines, a testament to the airplane's unique capabilities.

In the background of the photograph is the next Dreamliner to be built at Charleston already in the wing-body join tooling in position 1. This airplane is ZA238, L/N 54 and is also destined for Air India.

In other news not too much is happening with the 787s at Everett though there seems to have been a lot of movement of the completed airframes from pictures on Matt Cawby's web site. ZA 104 made its first flight yesterday and Boeing, so far, is maintaining a delivery target for the end of this month. ZA116 had ANA pilots conducting radio checks today while ZA102 was supposed to conduct taxi tests now that it out of change incorporation. All three of these airplanes are scheduled for delivery late this month with ZA116's delivery coming up first. The next few days will be very interesting.

Now it's three

A source told me this morning that L/N 42 (ZA105, JA808A) wil not be delivered this month as originally intended. This aircraft is still sitting in front of the EMC going through final preparation for delivery but Boeing will probably have to wait until next month.

This is hardly a surprise given all the work yet to be done to get these airplanes ready for delivery. Boeing will try to deliver 3 more 787s this year for a total of 5. Boeing has already delivered 9 747-8F airplanes and will probably be done for the year for 747 deliveries. The total 747 and 787 deliveries will total 14 of which 1/3 are 787s and 2/3 747 which is what Boeing had projected earlier this quarter. However, they were hoping to deliver 15 - 20 787s nad 747s in total. Unfortunately they will not even reach the lower bound of that number.

There has been no further test flights of any production 787s as of yet.

More on Boeing 787 delivery schedule

In the wake of the news coming out of Japan of the delay to the 3rd Dreamliner delivery more news has since come out courtesy of Dominic Gates at the Seattle Times and Susanna Ray at Bloomberg News.

Dominic Gates reported yesterday evening that the reason of the delay for the third 787 to ANA is wiring issues that the FAA found during a standard inspection as well as non functioning APUs in three 787s. Because the APU didn't start, tests that were to be done with the APU running had to be put off until the units were replaced. Boeing is calling these issues minor yet they were severe enough to force ANA to revise its international plans that were supposed to start this month.

It is unknown if this is a problem that is endemic through the 787s that are sitting in Everett or it is just a one off problem. Still the upshot is that the L/N will not be delivered until middle of next week and the other three airplanes that are set to be delivered have yet to fly on their pre-delivery tests with Boeing and ANA pilots. The delay which this site reported back in mid November forced ANA to postpone the start of international 787 service to next month.

Due to the pressure to deliver these four airplanes (L/N 9, L/N 31, L/N 41, L/N 42) Boeing is having some of it workers work through the holiday season which is traditionally a week off for Boeing employees. Undoubtedly they will probably be well compensated for their time. There are only three of these airplanes on the Boeing flightline though the fourth, L/N 42, is outside in front of EMC so it might be pulled out to the flightline very soon. Interestingly according to the Bloomberg article, the APU and wire issues aren't pacing the schedule. The question then is, what is pacing the delivery schedule, at least in the near term. Both articles say that Boeing feels that the issues are minor.

As of yet L/N 41 and L/N 42 have not flown and L/N 9 while it has flown still has not begun the process of Boeing and customer check flights. L/N 31 has had quite a few flights but has not flown since Wednesday, Dec. 14th. I'll be watching to see if there is any further movement on these airplanes but certainly, if the other three airplanes have not flown by middle of next week then Boeing's hopes of delivering at least four 787 this month will be dashed.

Lastly, in a related note, L/N 35 which to perform the ETOPs/F&R testing for the GEnx-1B on a 787 production frame still has not made its first flight. IF Boeing hopes to deliver the GEnx powered 787 next month they need to start flight tests on this airplane very soon or the certification and start of deliveries can slide to the right again.

Boeing to attempt 4 787 deliveries in December

According to a source, Boeing will now attempt to deliver 4 787 in the month of December instead of 2 as I had previously reported.


In addition to JA805A (L/N31,ZA116) and JA807A (L/N41, ZA104); Boeing will also try to deliver JA804A (L/N9, ZA102) and JA808A (L/N42, ZA 105).

L/N 9 has already flown as it took part in the certification test program when it conducted F&R/ETOPs testing for the 787/Trent-1000 combination. Boeing should be able to deliver this airplane though it still needs to conduct pre-delivery test flights. Of the four airplanes that are mentioned above, only L/N 31 is flying customer and Boeing pre-delivery flights. It it anticipated that this airplane should be delivered within the next one week, before Christmas time.

The other three have yet to fly and are all scheduled to be delivered just before New Year'e Eve (2011 in case you were wondering). L/N 42 was to have flown on Dec. 13th and it is still not on the flightline as of yet. L/N 41 is supposed to fly on the 16th of December.

Additionally, it was revealed that Boeing has penciled in three 787 deliveries for next month. L/N 23 (JA822J, ZA177) will be the first 787 with GEnx-1B engines delivered to a customer. This airplane has just returned from San Antonio where it was undergoing change incorporation. It has received a new paint job (which has underwhelmed the aviation geek community) though I don't know if it has its customer interiors fitted as of yet. L/N 35 (VT-ANH, ZA236) for Air India is also due to be delivered in January. This airplane is supposed to start ETOPs/F&R testing in support of the certification test program for the GEnx powered 787s. According to Flightblogger, this airplane is to have it's first flight around the middle of December so far nothing yet. Lastly, L/N 40 (JA806A, ZA117) will also be delivered to ANA in January. This aircraft is still at EMC. Nothing is certain with these three airplanes and their delivery dates are dependent on getting the work done on them as well as finishing up ETOPS and F&R testing on the GEnx powerplant.

This is quite an ambitious schedule for the next two weeks for Boeing. They are still struggling with the amount of work that has to be done on the 24 or so 787s that are in Everett. Particularly vexing is the amount of work on the early build 787s. As I had mentioned before none these early build 787s are in EMC (yet) or in 40-24. They're all stacked up on the Everett flightline. Most of the deliveries are the late build models which don't require as much work. Even so, the amount of work is so daunting that Boeing is trying hard to get the late build 787s into the air and into the hands of customers. There is a rumor going around that Boeing is pulling people off the 747-8 airplanes that have to be prepared for delivery and putting them on 787. If so then 747 deliveries might fall as a consequence. Boeing has delivered 8 thus far and are planning to deliver 1-2 more 747s.

Time is running out if Boeing is to deliver even two 787s this month let alone 4.

ANA's 3rd 787 takes flight

Boeing conducted the first flight of the next 787 to be delivered on Dec. 5, 2011. BOE116 took off this afternoon from Everett heading to Moses Lake Airport and then back to Everett. The aircraft should be in the air for about 3 hours. Production aircraft usually have about 20 - 25 test hours flown by both Boeig and customer pilots befoer they are delivered. I expect that this airplane (L/N 31, ZA116, JA805A) should be delivered in about 2 to 3 weeks.

787 update 12/1/2011

With all the excitement over yesterday's Boeing-IAM contract extension, there wa also news about the 787 that has come out and I would like to recap here.

787-GEnx certification

Boeing is still about 95% complete with 787-GEnx-1B certification testing according to Jim Albaugh who spoke at a Credit Suisse conference in NY yesterday. Certification testing using ZA005 and ZA006 are more or less complete according to Flightblogger, in a post on Nov. 29th. Additionally, he reported that ZA006 is getting some test equipement removed pior to be sent to San Antonio for refurbishment into a customer aircraft. If the change incorporation being done on production aircraft is any indication then this work on ZA006 is likely to take quite a bit of time to complete.

Boeing has done some of the F&R testing on the test aircraft but has to do the rest on a production standard aircraft. The 787 that has been tasked for this work is L/N 35 which is a 787 to be delivered to Air India. According to Flightblogger, first flight of this airplane has been delayed to around the middle of December owing to the slower pace of change incorporation on the 787s. Because of the delay in getting the needed aircraft, delivery of the first GEnx-1B 787 has slipped to January of 2012. The first one will be delivered to Japan Airlines, probably L/N 23, ZA177 which just returned form San Antonio after undergoing change incorporation work. Just yesterday the GEnx-1B engines received it ETOPS 330 certification however both the Trent and GEnx engines in combination with the 787 airframe won't be certified for ETOPS 330 until a fix to the fuel monitoring software is implemented, tested and certified by the FAA.

ZA004 - Trent Package "B" testing

According to Guy Norris, Boeing has completed certification testing for the Trent 1000 package "B" improvements for the 787. This will allow Boeing to finally start to deliver 787 with the new Trents which bring the specific fuel consumption to within 1% of the original promised specs. Boeing had undertaken this testing using ZA004. Over the last few weeks this airplane has been flown several times a day in order to finish up all the requirements. Once the FAA has received and approved all the test data, Boeing should be able to start delivering 787s with this engine. L/N 31 will be the first 787 to be delivered with the package "B" Trent 1000 engines.

Future deliveries

The pace of deliveries is obviously being didtaced by the pace of change incorporation which is excrutiatingly slow right now. The pace has already pushed the GEnx 787 deliveries out to January as well as deliveries to Trent 1000 customers further to the right. ANA was supposed to have received 5 787 in December...it will only receive two (L/N 31 and L/N 41). Both these airplanes are Trent 1000 package "B" airplanes. There are two other ANA 787s that have their engines attached and being prepped for delivery. These are L/N 9 (ZA102, JA804A) which was just pulled out to the Everett fuel dock and L/N 42 (ZA105, JA808A) which is still in front of the EMC.

These airplanes are not due to be delivered until after January 1st but there are now more 787s appearing on the flightline in preparation for delivery which is a good sign but on the flip side most of the aircraft that are out on the flightline are very early build airplanes that need extensive re-work done before they can be delivered to customer. Just to get these 11 airplanes (L/N 7 to L/N 19) done would probably take a good 2 years. Most of the deliveries will come from the late builds, particularly L/N 30 on up.

Production and Ramp Up

Jim Albaugh gave a nice update on the status of 787 production and ramp up. Currently they are are still at producing at 2.5 787 per month with the aim of ramping to 3.5 by around March or April and then to 5 by the end of 2012. Boeing is still maintaining it guidance of 10 787s per month by the end of 2013.

Albaugh had very good things to report about the North Charleston plant. The first aircraft from that line should deliver before June of 2012. The plant is capable of producing 2.5 787 per month right now. Boeing has now opened up the delivery center as well as the 787 interiors fabrication plant to supply bins, partitions, crew rest areas, etc. for the Charleston built 787s.

Test Flight Fleet

Now that test flights are nearing the end (at least for the 787-8), Boeing is starting to make plans for the first three airplanes built. ZA004-ZA006 will be refurbished and sold to customers (BBJ). Boeing has flown ZA001, the first 787, to Palmdale Airport where it will be in storage until they figure out which museum to house it in. Likely candidates are the Museum of Flight in Seattle or the Future of Flight museum in Everett though I wouldn't count out the NASM (National Air and Space Museum) in Virginia out. ZA002 is going to be in Charleston, SC for some time for testing purposes but its long term fate is unclear. ZA003 is due to start a 6 month tour of the 787 on December 5th. First stop is China an other Asian and African countries whose airlines have bought the 787. After the tour is completed the aircraft's long term fate is also undecided. No doubt there would be some testing to be done, particularly on engine and airframe improvements to lower weight and increase fuel efficiency and reduce the noise footprint. This is why ZA002 and ZA003 will probably held by Boeing for the foreseeable future to serve as test beds for these improvements.

Boeing and IAM 751 reach settlement on Charleston and Renton

Today is a day for big news out of Washington State. Boeing and IAM 751 which represents Boeing line workers in Washington State have come to an agreement after about 6 weeks of secret negotiations according to the Seattle Times. This agreement will supercede the current contract which expires 10 months from now.

The main provisions of the deal will require Boeing to locate 737 MAX production at Renton (this is logical given current 737 production is there). Boeing used the 737 MAX line as a bargaining chip to win settlement of another Boeing problem...the NLRB suit against Boeing which located the second 787 line in Charleston, SC. The details of this settlement of the NLRB suit are not yet known but I am assuming that it means that the NLRB will not pursue the suit against Boeing and Boeing will not have to shut down the Charleston plant.

Other main points in the 4 year deal is 2% annual raise plus COLA, a ratification bonus of $5000/employee as well as a 2% - 4% pay bonus. All this is pending IAM 751 membership approval. A vote is to take next week.

Dominic Gates said that there will not be an y immediate announcement of the NLRB suit due to it needing to be signed off by the NLRB and Obama. Given the current political environment and how the Republican party has raised its voice over this issue it is a no brainer for Obama and the NLRB.

This is a win on many fronts. It a win for Boeing because it ensures labor peace for four more years and the NLRB is off its back. Presumably the 787s will still be assembled in both Everett and Charleston but the details are unknown at this time.

It's a win for the union as it ensure that 737 production will stay in Renton and that members are getting the pay they expect as well as other benefits. It's a win for the NLRB and the Obama administration, even though they had nothing to due with the negotiations (as far as I know) as the NLRB suit became a huge issue for them in a year before the presidential elections are to take place. It will be interesting to know the details of the settlement of the NLRB suit though. It's a win for both the cities of Charleston and Renton as it will mean that there will be no layoffs at those plants due to non-economic factors.

Here's Boeing's press release on the agreement:

Boeing Announces Intent to Locate 737 MAX Production in Puget Sound

- New airplane to be built in Renton, Wash., pending ratification of labor
agreement

SEATTLE, Nov. 30, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) today announced that it intends to build the new 737 MAX in Renton, Wash., pending approval of an early contract extension with the International Association of Machinists & Aerospace Workers (IAM), the union representing hourly employees in Washington, Oregon and Kansas.

As part of an effort to improve their relationship, Boeing and the IAM have been discussing the potential for an early contract extension for several weeks. The current contract is set to expire in September 2012.

Independent of that effort, Boeing has been conducting a review of potential sites for 737 MAX production since the company announced in August that it will build a new-engine variant of the market-leading 737.

Boeing has assessed the business case for locating production of the 737 MAX in Renton in light of the economics of a proposed new labor agreement, and the company is prepared to locate 737 MAX production in Renton provided the economics contained in that proposal are achieved.

Upon ratification of such an agreement by hourly employees, Boeing says it will make the necessary investment to produce Next-Generation 737s and 737 MAXs in its existing Renton facility.

"The 737 MAX builds upon the legacy of the world's best single-aisle airplane and continues to generate overwhelming response from our customers," said Jim Albaugh, president and chief executive officer, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "If our employees ratify a new agreement, building the 737 MAX in Renton will secure a long and prosperous future there, as well as at other sites in the Puget Sound area and in Portland, Ore., where 737 parts are built."

To date, Boeing has received more than 700 commitments from our customers for the 737 MAX. The new airplane is expected to enter service in 2017.

Another important take away is that this agreement may start the healing process in the relationship between the IAM and Boeing. Time will only tell on that account.

Another 787 for ANA getting ready for delivery

Matt Cawby posted a photo of the 4th 787 to be delivered to ANA outside at the Everett Field fuel dock. This aircraft L/N 41 is registered as JA807A and is expected to be delivered around mid to late December. The aircraft is shown with it Trent 1000 engines and the protective covering removed from the windows of the aircraft. As I blogged a couple of days ago, this aircraft along with L/N 31 will be the only 787s delivered in December.

Boeing will have delivered only 4 787s in 2011 with expectations that they would have delivered 6 - 8 787s. Again most of the very early build aircraft are still outside on the Everett flightline and not inside where the change incorporation rework is being done.

In other news ZA004 has been taking to the air of late and I can only surmise that this is related to getting final FAA type certification for the Trent 1000 package "B" improvements. Boeing will need this certification before delivering any 787s withe these improvements and I suspect that L/N 31 and L/N 41 are equipped with the package "B" Trents.

Did AMR order more 777-300ERs?

Today AMR detailed the breakdown of their huge A320 order (they're converting the order of 130 current generation A320s into a mix of current gen A319 and A321).
AMR's Press Release
However what is interesting comes at the end of press release. In the last paragraph, AMR states that they have orders for 15 777s that are to be delivered between 2012 and 2016. Looking at Boeing's O&D web site shows that AMR has orders for 7 777-300ER as well and 6 777-200ERs (left over from the order placed in the 1990s). I don't think that these 6 777-200ERs will ever be delivered to AMR.

Interestingly enough Boeing booked an unidentified order last week for 8 777s the version is unknown until Boeing releases it's orders for the month in early December. However there is some confusion if this 777 order is for American Airlines or Singapore Airplanes which had announced an order for 8 777-300ERs. Boeing did book another order for 8 777-300ERs also in September, 2011 so it is possible one of these orders is for Singapore Airlines and the other is for American.

Boeing to deliver only 2 787s in December

According to sources, Boeing will deliver only two more 787s the rest of this year. The two aircraft are both destined for ANA and are late build 787s. L/N 31 is already out on the Everett flightline has had some ground test done but has yet to run its engines for the first time. Boeing plans to fly this airplane on its B-1 check flight sometime next week and deliver around the 2nd week of December.

The next airplane will be L/N 41 which is currently located in the Everett Modification Center. This is another late build airplane which should fly around early December and be delivered around the 3rd week of December. So far Boeing is not planning any deliveries of the GEnx-1B powered 787 next month. In their last earning release, Boeing said that they expect the number of 787 and 747s to be delivered in 2011 to be between 15 and 20 units with 747s accounting for 2/3 of that. If using the low range of that forecast then Boeing was giving delivery guidance at 5 787s and 10 747s for this year. Their well on their way to 10 747s and perhaps more but they will fall short on 787s deliveries for 2011 that they had given guidance on.

Unfortunately, the view of the Everett ramp seems to confirm this situation. ANA said in late September that they were expecting to take delivery of 5 more 787 by year end and have a total fleet of 7 by Dec. 31st. Currently there is only one airplane with Trent 1000 engines hanging from the wings (L/N 31) with two 787s with GE engines on the ramp. The GEnx-1B certification program is not complete yet so it is doubtful that those planes won't be delivered until sometime in the New Year. Boeing was expecting to deliver 6 by the end of 2011 but it's looking increasingly like it won't even make that number.

So what is the problem? Two things: 1) Too many jobs that need to be fixed, particularly on the early build 787s (L/N 7 to L/N 19). 2) Lack of adequate resources to finish the job in a timely manner. Boeing may have a plan to deal with the jobs that yet to be done on all these airplanes but it is time consuming and there is a need to try and get the airplanes that have the fewest re-work requirements into the hands of customers. It's no wonder that 3 of the 4 airplanes that would have been delivered are late build 787s. It looks like Boeing will be spending a lot of time getting those 12 other 787s ready for customers and the only way to do that is to assign more resources (i.e. workers) to tackle these airplanes and get them out.

On a bit of positive news, some of the suppliers are starting to ramp up production of their work share in order to support Boeing's ramp up of 787 production. Mitsubishi Heavy has added a 2nd autoclave to support increased 787 wing box output. Currently Boeing is at 2.5 airplanes per month and hopes to be at 3.5 by sometime next spring. Also on a brighter note, the backlog of 747 on the Everett ramp also seems to be diminishing as Boeing has delivered 5 of them thus far and has two more in flight tests. It does look like they can deliver 12 to 13 of the 747-8Fs by the end of this year. At least the 747 deliveries frees up more ramp space for the 787s coming out of final assembly.

787 production continues; Boeing draw first blood in Dubai

With Dubai 2011 underway, Boeing has drawn first blood with a huge order from Emirates.

But first some 787 tidbits.

Boeing sent two of it's 787 test planes on international marketing trips. ZA001 is flying to various 787 customer destinations to show the aircraft around the world. First stop is New Zealand where Air New Zealand is to induct the first 787-9 into it's fleet in a little over 2 years from now. It will go on to Australia from there where Jetstar and QANTAS will take delivery starting in 2013. ZA003 is now flying with a full passenger interior with the test workstations and other flight test equipment removed. It also is sporting a new paint job which is a hybrid of the Dreamliner livery that Boeing painted on ZA001.

Meanwhile, back in Boeing has pushed another 787 out the door and has reallocated several 787 to other airlines. L/N 50 and L/N 51 are currently on the final assembly floor and each has been reallocated to United and ANA respectively . They were to have gone to Ethiopian and LAN but were changed for unknown reasons. With the start of assembly on L/N 51 Boeing is on it's way of 2.5 787s per month with the target of 3.5 to occur sometime in early 2012.

One of the early build 787s appears to have completed the change incorporation and re-work. That airplane is L/N 23 (ZA177) which is destined for Japan Airlines. The aircraft took a check test flight on Nov. 11th and was ferried back to Everett on the 13th. It still does not have a customer interior but that work will be done in Everett along with testing of the interior and then Boeing and customer test flights prior to delivery. Given that work, Boeing can deliver this plane to JAL by the end of December or early January, 2012 depending on the remaining certification activities that need to be completed on the GEnx-1B powered 787. I am still maintaining my short term view that Boeing should be able to deliver 6 more 787 in December (no November deliveries). Most if not all these deliveries will be later production airplanes for ANA with a later production GEnx airplane added in.

Speaking of which, ZA006 continues F&R and ETOPS testing. Last word from Boeing was that GEnx-1B testing was 95% complete so I do anticipate that Boeing can complete all certification testing by the end of this month will the aim of having first delivery by the end of December to either JAL or Air India.





Dubai 2011


The Dubai Air Show got of to a bang with a huge order by Emirates for 50 777-300ERs. The bang not only came in the size of the order $18bn at list prices, or the fact that this is Boeing's largest commercial aircraft order by value or that it will make Emirates the largest user of the 777. The big bang came in the message this order sent to Airbus. It has been no secret that the market really hasn't accepted the A350-1000 as a viable competitor to the 777-300ER. The market response after launching the A350 coupled with the feeble attempt by Airbus and Rolls Royce to improve the aircraft earlier this year and the 2 year delay (with possibly more delays to come) has angered customers for the airplane, namely Qatar and Emirates. Thus this order at the start of the airshow was meant as a message to Airbus about the status of the A350-1000. Additionally, the A350-1000 is barely a better airplane than the Boeing offering but with the proposed 777-8X/9X (on which Emirates has been working closely with Boeing) thus this latest order would allow Emirates to easily introduce the next iteration of the 777 as this latest order is delivered towards the end of the decade. I wouldn't be surprised if Emirates has a conversion feature in the contract that allows them to convert to the newer model after Boeing launches the airplane with delivery aimed for 2020.


Airbus did get into the order column with an order for 50 A320NEOs from ALAFCO. This same lessor announced today that they sold 6 or their 787 orders to Oman Air. So this order with Oman is really a non-order order. Boeing is still adding more MoUs for the 737 MAX. The count is 700 airplanes spread across 9 customers with only American Airlines the only named customer of those 9. I don't expect any of these MoUs to be firmed before the end of the year but most if not all should be firmed by the end of 1st quarter 2012 in addition to any new customers that would have signed on by then.


Dubai 2011 Totals


Airbus


ALAFCO - 50 x A320NEO (+30 options)

Boeing

Emirates - 50 x 777-300ER (+20 options)

Updated 787 Final Assembly Start Dates

I just got some new production start dates for the next few 787s (up to L/N 53). L/N 50 was the latest 787 to start final assembly (started on Oct. 27th). Here are the following final assembly start dates:

L/N 51 - Nov. 10 (14 days)
L/N 52 - Nov. 22 (12 days)
L/N 53 - Dec. 6 (14 days but take back on day for the Thanksgiving Holiday, 13 days)

In order to be producing at a 2.5 aircraft rate, Boeing needs to start final assembly on a new 787 every 12 days (excluding holidays and assuming a 30 day month). It looks like they're trying to get there but I was expecting L/N 51 to start final asembly a couple of days sooner.