787 Everett surge line activated

UPDATE: I just got this from Scott Lefeber at Boeing:

Boeing activated the temporary surge line on Aug. 24 by loading the first airplane into final body join. The 787 program is making steady progress toward increasing the production rate from the current 3.5 airplanes per month to 10 per month by the end of 2013.

Boeing has finally activated the 787 surge line for the final assembly of the 787.  The surge line allows Boeing to increase production of the 787 sooner while Boeing Charleston ramps up over the next 16 months to 3 airplanes per month.  Thus far, Boeing plans to deactivate the surge line after Charleston reaches the 3/month output but there are rumblings that the surge line may remain to further push the total 787 output to beyond 10/month.  The surge line was ready early this summer but Boeing opted to use the three position line to conduct change incorporation on the existing assembled 787 inventory.  This allowed Boeing to get more 787s prepared for delivery during this past summer.

The surge line will have three positions each will mirror its counterpart in the existing final assembly line in 40-26 in terms of funcions though it's not exact mirror in terms of the layout, so the work that is done on the airframe in position 1 in 40-26 will be the same that is done in position 1 in 40-24, etc.  The main exception that both lines will share the use of position 4 in 40-26 and position 3 in 40-24 is slanted while the other two positions are in line.

On Friday, ZA538 (LN 80) was loaded into the position 1 in the 40-24 building after ZA500 (LN 11) was cleared from that position and taken to the 40-51 ramp.  There are two other positions in the line for production but currently those spots are being occupied by two other 787s that are undergoing change incorporation.  It is thought that when ZA538 is done with position 1 then ZA505 (LN18) which is currently in position 2 will be moved out to allow final assembly to continue.  The same will be true for position 3 which is currently occupied by ZA285 (LN 45).  After this last plane is cleared from 40-24 the surge line will be a dedicated final assembly line with no change incorporation activities planned to be done on it.  All those activities will continue at the Everett Modification Center.

787 deliveries on tap for the last week of August

Today, according to sources, Boeing may have made a contractual delivery of Air India's first 787.  ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) was seen at the Boeing Charleston Delivery Center today and a source did say that the aircraft may be delivering today (contractually). The contractual delivery date is the date that the paperwork is signed and the final delivery payment is made to Boeing by the customer. When asked if this was the case, Boeing spokesperson, Candy Eslinger, replied: "The Air India delivery team is in South Carolina for the delivery scheduled next week."  This is confirmation that Boeing will be delivering at least one if not two 787s to Air India this month.  I have heard that ZA236 would deliver on Aug. 27 (ceremonial delivery perhaps) and fly away that afternoon/evening for New Delhi.  For now there isn't any confirmation about the contractual delivery being made though I suspect that this event may have taken place today (Aug. 24th). In addition to ZA236 being delivered this month, a source has told me that the following deliveries may take place during the next week.  Please take this information with a grain of salt as we have seen that some may not materialize due to different circumstances.

ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) to LAN on Aug. 27
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to Qatar Airways on Aug. 30
ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) to ANA on Aug. 30
ZA182 (LN 70, JA828J) to Japan Airlines on Aug. 30 (this airplane has had only one test flight)
ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) to Air India on Aug. 31

Additionally ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) is almost ready for delivery but doesn't have a delivery date as of yet.  It appears that Air India is trying to pick up one delivery ready 787 each week so it could be that ZA237 could deliver in September.  There are two other 787s for Air India both built at Charleston that have yet to take their B-1 flights so I anticipate that those deliveries may happen in late September but more likely in October.

There is also further information on September deliveries which, once again, should be taken with a grain of salt.

ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A) to ANA on Sept. 12
ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR) to Ethiopian on Sept. 18 (hasn't taken its B-1 yet)
ZA288 (LN 53, N20904) to United on Sept. 18
ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J) to Japan Airlines on Sept. 20 (hasn't taken its B-1 yet)
ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL) to Qatar Airways on Sept. 25 (hasn't taken its B-1 yet)
ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) to ANA on Sept. 25 (hasn't taken its B-1 yet)
ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) to China Southern on Sept. 27 (hasn't taken its B-1 yet)

All told the total number of deliveries in August and September may total 16, IF this scheduled is kept.

Busy day for 787s at Everett

Boeing sent up 4 customer ready 787s for test flights including an aircraft for Air India that is currently at Boeing Charleston.  The four airplanes that flew were:

ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) - making a C-1 flight
ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A) - making a B-1 flight
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) - making a Boeing test flight and then later a C-1 flight

Given the ZA461 and ZA118 both have customer flights, both these airplanes are very, very close to being ready for delivery, perhaps being delivered this month.  ZA119 for ANA made its first flight but had to return to Everett early due to an unspecified problem during the test flight.  ZA237 did a flight that lasted a couple of hours but it is not known if it was customer flight or a Boeing flight. Air India's 787 though are ready for delivery but the airline isn't ready.  Still now word on when the airline will take delivery but I don't think that anything should be read into this one test flight just yet.  IF there are more test flights (customer flights) with the other 2 787s that are ready as well as B-1 flights of the other two Charleston built Dreamliners then that may be an indication of something happening.

Finally the first production Dreamliner to enter assembly is finally being flown to Japan tonight.  ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) was temporarily grounded by an unknown maintenance issue.  The issue has been resolved and this aircraft which needed the most work is finally being sent home.  ANA accepted delivery on August 20th.

Qatar's first 787 may be delivered on Aug. 25th

I've gotten info that Qatar's first 787 MAY be delivered on August 25, this Saturday. The aircraft continues to fly test flight with a temporary US registration though I don't know why. I am trying to confirm.

Qatar Airways not taking delivery of 787 on Aug. 22, LAN appears to be next delivery.

Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research told me that Qatar Airways will not be taking delivery of their first 787 today. This news coupled with LAN's announcement that they will accept their first 787 on Aug. 30/31 and that they will be the fourth worldwide operator of the Dreamliner indicates that 1) Qatar Airways won't take delivery until around September (though that could always change) and 2) given that the other 787s that are in test flight will not be ready for delivery within the next one week. Boeing may end up with only four aircraft delivered this month.

August 787 deliveries appears to be slipping

Looks like Boeing won't be delivering as many 787s as we all thought in August as sources tell me that there looks to be slips in some deliveries from August to September.  I'm not sure about any knock on effect, if any, would be to downstream deliveries.  Earlier I reported that Boeing could deliver as many as 7 Dreamliners this month.  One has already been delivered and it does appear that there could be as many as two this coming week, one to ANA and one to Qatar. There has been some slowdown in 787 flight test activity and not as many B-1 flights as I thought would have taken place by now in order to make 7 deliveries by the end of August.  At this point I'm not sure which 787 deliveries are being pushed to September and as always delivery information should always be taken with a grain of salt due to nature of the 787 program and customer preferences.

As far as Air India and the 787, everyones' favorite topic, I've been hearing new estimates for first delivery ranging from this week to sometime in mid to late September.  This is one that I've stopped believing in any estimates not that the people who gave the information are wrong but that Air India is so disorganized and mismanaged that it's not possible to figure when they'll take actual delivery. This airline has the ability to come to the table and at the very last minute pulled the rug out at the delivery ceremony and refuse to take delivery and make the final payment.  One thing is for sure...Boeing is ready to turn the aircraft over to the airline, three of them with a fourth waiting in the proverbial wings.  So what is the problem?  Though no one has spoken publicly about it in definitive terms, the fact that Air India is actively (read: desperately) trying to arrange financing to pay for the deliveries. The Ministry of Finance has put the hold on the deliveries though they haven't made publicly why they put the hold on after the Indian Cabinet itself had approved for the deliveries to take place in accordance with the compensation agreement hammered out between the airline and Boeing.  Air India financial health is in a very precarious situation that banks aren't exactly lining up to extend any financing even if the 787s were used as collateral.  The management of Air India and the GoI has taken pains to being down this airline and to frag its once stellar reputation through the mud.  The drama continues.

No 787 delivery to Air India today

Sources have confirmed to me that Boeing did not deliver a 787 to Air India today and further revealed that the company was not expecting to make a delivery from the Boeing Charleston facility today.  There is still no confirmed date as to when Air India will allow a delivery to take place.  Boeing is ready to deliver the three 787s parked at Charleston and is awaiting word from Air India.  It was close, it seems, as of last Wednesday when ZA236 took a test flight but then rumors started to come out that the Indian Ministry of Finance as not signed off on the transfer of the final payment to Boeing.  Again this further erodes any confidence that these airplanes will be delivered anytime soon.  This entire episode is further proof of the incompetence and mismanagement at Air India and the Government of India itself.
In the meantime there are 4 787s (3 with Air India livery) that are parked at Charleston.  The fourth aircraft is widely believed to be ZA238 which experienced the engine issue last month and now has a replacement engine.  I anticipate that this airplane can make its first flight in about two weeks.

Lastly there was a line move in Everett and ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB) for LAN has been pushed out onto the 40-51 ramp to finish off minor assembly tasks before being sent over to the paint hangar. I anticipate that this airplane can deliver sometime in early to mid October since Boeing has a very full ramp of 787s that they need to deliver ahead of this particular aircraft.

Meanwhile ANA will be gearing up to take ownership of its 12th 787 as ZA100 conducts it customer test flights.

787 delivery to Air India may be off....again

In the never ending drama between Air India, the Indian Government and Boeing over the 787 the first delivery scheduled for tomorrow may be off....again.  This time the issue may reside with the GoI's Ministry of Finance who, reportedly, hasn't signed off on the delivery payment that needs to be made by the GoI to Boeing for the delivery.  Why they're objecting is not known since the Council of Ministers and the GoI CCEA both approved the compensation deal between Boeing and Air India.  Yesterday ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) conducted a customer test flight so that is good news.  Stay tuned for news on this on going saga. 

In related news, the flightline in Charleston now is back to 787s on the flightline.  The airplane that was just moved outside is ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) which suffered the engine failure in July.  Brendan Kearney a reporter for the Charleston newspaper Post and Courier sent a Tweet with a picture of the 4 787s on the flightline and has told me that the aircraft that was just moved outside is indeed ZA238.

Boeing delivers 787 to Ethiopian, Air India may be next

Photo by MoonM

Boeing now has delivered a 787 to its third customer, Ethiopian Airlines.  ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) was officially handed over to the airline yesterday and flew away to Washington Dulles International Airport early this morning.  This is good news for Boeing as it not only frees up another spot on the flightline but should kick off a large number of deliveries over the next couple of months.  It is rumored that Air India is to take the next 787, ZA 236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) on Friday and flyaway on Saturday to New Delhi.  Air India is expected to take the three service ready 787s over a two week period starting on Aug. 17.  What should follow is a gaggle of deliveries to Qatar Airways, LAN as well as to current operators ANA and JA during the month of August.

Since yesterday more airplanes have actually shown up on the flightline at Everett including China Southern's first 787, ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) and another for JAL, ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J) both of which are at the fuel dock. The flightline is getting ever more crowded with completed 787s that are ready for pre-flight or are currently in pre-delivery test flights.  Boeing continues to work down the accumulated 787 inventory with a couple more 787s entering change incorporation including those for Qatar and ANA.

I do anticipate that by the end of September, Boeing would have delivered a total of 27 - 30 787s since deliveries began almost a year ago.  This will include anywhere from 8 to 10 in August and about 7 more in September.  This includes deliveries to Air India.

September should see deliveries to Qatar, Air India, ANA, JAL, United and China Southern.  The 787 Production and Disposition Table has been updated as of August 15, 2012.

Updated 787 delivery information

Activity around Everett has increased in recent days as far as the 787 is concerned.  ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) continues pre-delivery test flight, ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) performed a customer test flight and ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) conducted its B-1 flight).  Even though August is almost one half over a posting on airliners.net says that there will be 7 Dreamliner deliveries made this month not including deliveries to Air India.  The delivery train starts this Monday (August 14th) with first delivery to Ethiopian of ZA262.  Less than a week later ZA100 will deliver to ANA on the 20th.Qatar Airways is scheduled to be the 4th carrier to take the 787 (ZA461) around August 22nd followed by LAN (ZA536) on August 27th.  ANA takes one on August 28th (ZA119). Both JAL (ZA182) and ANA (ZA118) take one each on August 30th.  Again this schedule is subject to change and many of these deliveries can move to a later date.  If this schedule holds then it would be the most 787s delivered by Boeing in one month and will add 3 new airlines flying the 787. 

It is possible that Air India could be added this month but they are having a very hard time arranging financing to pay for the jets that are ready for delivery and is reflective of their financial distress.  It is unknown if Boeing will penalize them for not taking delivery in a timely manner but Air India has been aware that these airplanes are ready for delivery but chose not to pursue financing until after they got approval to take delivery from the GoI.  This reinforces the view of many that this is a very poorly managed airline.  The Air India -787 saga continues, unfortunately.

September is also promising to be just as good as August was in terms of '87 deliveries with United and China Southern both taking their first airplanes.  All September deliveries are tentatively scheduled for the second half of September and kcks off with Ethiopian taking delivery of ZA264 (LN 71, ET-AOR) on Sept. 18th as well as United (ZA288, LN 53, N20904) also signing for its first 787 on the same day.  Two days later Japan Airlines will take its 6th 787 which is an early build Dreamliner, ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J).  ANA takes a 787 which is the first 787 to be rolled out without needing to go to the EMC.  ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) should deliver around September 25th.  Qatar Airways will take its second 787, ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCD) on September 27 but also delivering on that date will be the first '87 for China Southern.  This airplane is ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727). 

All together this is 13 787s that is scheduled to be delivered over the next 6 weeks and will take Boeing to 25 787 delivered in 2012 not including tentative deliveries to Air India if and when that happens.  By the end of September, if all goes according that what I laid out in this post, then there will be 7 customers flying the 787 by the end of the third quarter possibly 8 with Air India.

NTSB narrows down GEnx-1B engine issue to fan mid shaft fracture on Air India 787

In a press release issued today, the NTSB said that a fan mid shaft had fractured at the forward end of the shaft.  The NTSB is still trying to understand the root cause of the fracture which led to parts being ejected from the rear of the engine.  The cause can be either a manufacturing flaw in this particular engine or (and highly unlikely) a design flaw. 

Currently there are about 80 GEnx engines that are in service on both the 747-8 and the 787.  Boeing is going to deliver another GEnx powered 787 to Ethiopian Airlines on Monday and thus far there is no indication that those plans have been or are going to change.  This is the first time that there has been a failure of significance on the GEnx engine and given the operating (albeit short) history of the engine, there is no reason to believe that there is a safety risk of using the engine in commercial use at this point.  I believe Boeing will continue deliveries of the GEnx powered 787 going forward with deliveries this month to Qatar Airways, Ethiopian and Air India. Here is the test of the NTSB press release:

NTSB provides factual update on Boeing 787 engine failure in South Carolina

August 8, 2012

WASHINGTON - The National Transportation Safety Board continues its investigation of the July 28, 2012 contained engine failure that occurred on a Boeing 787 Dreamliner during a pre-delivery taxi test in Charleston, South Carolina. A contained engine failure is a specific engine design feature in which components might separate inside the engine but either remain within the engine's cases or exit the engine through the tail pipe. This design feature generally does not pose immediate safety risks.

Last week, the NTSB sent an investigator to the scene to gather information on the incident and subsequently launched a full investigation into the cause of the failure, led by NTSB Investigator-in-Charge, Mr. David Helson.

On August 1, 2012, a team of experts from the NTSB, FAA, Boeing and GE Aviation specializing in engine systems and metallurgy traveled to a GE facility in Cincinnati, OH to disassemble and examine the failed GEnx engine. GE is the manufacturer of the GEnx engine. The parties to the investigation have been extremely cooperative in assisting NTSB personnel in its review and assessment.

As a result of the investigative work to date, the NTSB has determined that a fan mid-shaft on the failed GEnx engine fractured at the forward end of the shaft, rear of the threads where the retaining nut is installed. The fan mid-shaft is undergoing several detailed examinations including dimensional and metallurgical inspections.

The GEnx engine is a newly designed aircraft engine. It is a "dual shaft" engine, meaning that one shaft connects the compressor spool at one end to the high pressure turbine spool at the other end. A longer "fan shaft" connects the fan and booster in the front of the engine to the low pressure turbine in the back.

The cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder, which is a combined unit on the 787 Dreamliner, was transported to the agency's Recorders Laboratory in Washington, DC for processing and readout. Both recordings captured the event and analysis is ongoing.

Moving forward, investigators will continue the detailed examination of the engine and metallurgical analysis of its components. The investigators have also begun reviewing the engine manufacturing and assembly records.

This investigation is ongoing. The information released today is factual in nature and does not include any analysis. Additional factual information may be released as it is developed.

On a semi-related matter, MAtt Cawby got a picture of ZA288 (LN 53, N20904) for United Airlines at Everett's compass rose.  He says that first fligth of this airplane is imminent.

Air India, Ethiopian moving towards first 787 deliveries

Despite Friday's announcement that Air India has now been cleared to accept 787 deliveries from Boeng, it looks more likely that the first non-Japanese carrier to take ownership of a 787 will be Ethiopian.  In a press release, Ethiopian says that they will take delivery of their first 787 on August 14th and fly away on August 15th to Washington Dulles.  Air India is still trying to decide when to take formal ownership of the three 787s that are currently ready for delivery at Boeing Charleston.  The delivery is clouded by the failure of the GEnx engine in late July though the carrier is still taking delivery.  Neither the FAA or the NTSB as ordered a grounding of GEnx equipped aircraft and deliveries are continuing and are going to continue unless a significant issue is discovered by the parties investigating the incident.  Because of this Air India is obligated to take delivery of the airplanes or they can face storage fees and other costs.  The GEnx issue will nto be an impediment to delivery at this point unless there is something seriously wrong with the engine.  Air India still has to communicate to Boeing when they plan on taking the aircraft and rumors say that it could be as early as the end of this week.  I'm counting on a low key delivery ceremony given the tortuous path to delivery to Air India.  In the Wall Street Journal article, Jon Ostrower says that the three aircraft would be delivered one at a time spaced by 7 to 10 days which means that the three deliveries would take about a month to complete due to the need to send the Air India personnel back to Charleston to pick up each aircraft.

In the meantime, LAN's frst airplane, ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) has taken its first flight today and is moving towards a late August to early September delivery to the airline. I do anticipate further first flights of the 787s that are in preflight including a gaggle of 787s for ANA and JAL that are on the flightline.

Here's the text of Ethiopian's Press Release:

Ethiopian Airlines to Receive its first Boeing 787 on August 14

Press Release

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Ethiopian Airlines, the fastest growing airline in Africa, is pleased to announce that it will take delivery of its first Boeing 787 Dreamliner on August 14, 2012, in Seattle, Washington.

Ethiopian is proud to be the first airline from Africa, Europe, Americas and Middle East to take delivery of the Dreamliner, and to be able to offer its passengers the ultimate travel experience on-board this game changing aircraft before other carriers. “The fact that we are the first airline outside Japan to receive this ultra modern aircraft is an affirmation of our continuing pioneering role in African aviation. It is also a testimony of our commitment to give our passengers the best possible travel experience, with the best industry products and services.,” said Tewolde Gebremariam, CEO of Ethiopian.

After taking delivery, Ethiopian will fly its Dreamliner to Washington D.C. the next day, where the aircraft will be on display. During the exhibition, Ethiopian Dreamliner is expected to be visited by US Senators and House Representatives as well as Ambassadors, Executives from the World Bank and IMF, members of the Ethiopian community, the media and other invited guests.
Ethiopian Dreamliner, the first to be received by a non-Japanese carrier, will make its historic trip to Africa and will touchdown at Bole Addis Ababa International Airport on August 16, 2012. The airline will hold celebrations in Addis Ababa for the arrival of the aircraft and will soon announce its first Dream destinations.

Boeing to get replacement GE engine for 787

Boeing said that they are talking to GE about getting a replacement engine for the one that failed last weekend on ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ). As to impact on deliveries, Boeing is saying that no determination has been made that would impact their ability to deliver airplanes with GEnx engines. 

So obviously the engine is going to be replaced but when is not yet known.  Also Boeing is still trying to figure out (along with the NTSB and GE) what went wrong so they can determine the impact, if any, to deliveries of airplanes with GEnx engines.  I'm presuming that this will include not just the 787 but also the 747-8.  Here's a text of what Boeing sent me:

We continue to work closely with the NTSB and its party members, including GE and FAA, on the investigation. The engine will be replaced, and we're working with GE on that. Regarding deliveries, at this time, there has been no determination made that would impact our ability to deliver airplanes with GEnx engines. Of course, if at any time during the investigation it is determined that there is a need to take action, we will not hesitate to do so.

Air India to be allowed to take delivery of 787s...sort of

BREAKING...Air India's agreement with Boeing (the Delay Compensation Settlement Agreement) has been approved by to GoI's CCEA permitting Air India to take delivery of the 787s.  Further the issue of performance shortfalls and any compensation relating to that issue has been de-linked from the delay compensation issue and will be negotiated at a later date by the GoI with Boeing.

This is all good news for Boeing but Air India is stil not going to take delivery because of the GEnx-1B engine issue that arose last week.  Air India Maintenance Department wants to be sure of the safety of the engine before inducting the aircraft into AI's fleet.  There's no telling how long that will take but the GEnx engine is still flying on the 747-8 and the JAL 787s without an issue so this is another delaying tactic on Air India part...again.

Here's the text of the GoI's decision (thanks to HK Expat for the link):

Delivery of Boeing 787 Approved

CCEA Decision The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has approved the proposal of Ministry of Civil Aviation as per following: (i) Air India be allowed to take the delivery of 27 numbers of B-787 aircraft after signing the Delay Compensation Settlement Agreement. (ii) The issue relating to compensation for failure to meet performance guarantees has been delinked from the Delay Compensation Settlement Agreement, which shall be negotiated separately by an Empowered Group of Officers after actual evaluation of the performance of the delivered/inducted B-787 aircraft. The Ministry of Law & Justice would examine and endorse the enabling legal provisions / aspects of the negotiations. Air India would derive the benefits on account of the induction of the latest state-of-art technology Boeing aircraft which are more fuel efficient than its’ competitors. Background: Air India is planning to induct 27 numbers 787 aircrafts in its fleet as part of the contracted deliveries of the aircraft from M/s. Boeing. These aircrafts were scheduled to be delivered from September, 2008 to October 2011. However, due to certain design / production issues these aircraft have been delayed and are now scheduled to be delivered between June, 2012 to March, 2016.

United's First 787 Rolls out of Paint Hangar and other 787 news

United's First 787 Rolls out of Paint Hangar, a photo by The Boeing Company on Flickr.

Boeing and United Airlines rolled out the first 787 (ZA288, LN 53, N20904) for United Airlines in a webcast early this morning. The aircraft is due to be delivered by the end of September and placed into service sometime in the fall flying domestic routes at first then expanding into international routes starting with Houston - Tokyo.

Today the NTSB said that they are investigating the GEnx engine incident along with Boeign and GE at GE's plant in Oho. The engine will be trucked there in the next few days where it will be disassembled to examine each part. Prelionarily, GE is saying that there is no safety issue but they will contiue to work with the NTSB to figure out what happened. Now there is now word on if ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) is to receive a new engine or not but Boeing did fly ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) today without incident. It does look like that this icident is a one off issue as Boeing, GE and the FAA would have grounded all airplanes flying the GEnx engine which includes 20+ 747 and 4 787s.

Here's the test of the NTSB statement:

NTSB investigating Boeing 787 engine failure

July 31, 2012

WASHINGTON - The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating an engine failure that occurred on a Boeing 787 Dreamliner during a taxi test in Charleston, South Carolina.

On Saturday, July 28, 2012, Boeing and General Electric, the engine manufacturer, notified the NTSB that a Boeing 787 experienced an engine failure during a pre-delivery taxi test. As a result of the failure, it has been reported that the engine left debris on the active runway at Charleston International Airport and caused a brush fire. There were no passengers aboard the aircraft nor were there any fatalities or injuries.

Upon the notification of the incident, the NTSB sent an aviation investigator with extensive expertise in aircraft powerplants, to the scene on Sunday to gather information to better understand the circumstances of the event.

As a result, the NTSB decided to conduct an investigation and has named David Helson as the Investigator in Charge. In the next few days, an NTSB aircraft powerplants expert and a metallurgist from the NTSB Materials Lab will travel to a General Electric facility in Cincinnati, OH, to lead and coordinate the disassembly and examination of the engine in question.

The Federal Aviation Administration, Boeing and General Electric are parties to the investigation.

787 work continues despite GEnx engine issue

Work continued apace at both Everett and Boeing Charleston on the 787s that still need to be delivered.  In fact the number of planes that are in pre-flight is steadily increasing at Everett as in the number of airplanes that are entering change incorporation.
Tomorrow United Airlines will unveil it's first 787 as it is being rolled out of Boeing's paint hangar.  The rollout can be viewed by clicking here.  The roll out of ZA288 (LN 53, N27904) is to start at 8:30AM EST, 5:30AM PST. While United is unveiling it's newest addition this airplane won't actually be delivered for another 6 to 8 weeks.  It will join a gaggle of pre-flight 787s that are on the Everett ramp. 

Another JAL 787 just finished change incorporation (ZA178, LN 27) is currently in the paint hangar and most likely will be delivered sometime next month.  The number of 787s that are in change incorporation have also increased.  There are 4 Dreamliners in 40-24 for change incorporation and EMC has a full complement of 5 airplanes with another 4 outside of the hangar that are also being worked on. 

Boeing is still maintaining 35 - 42 787s to be delivered this year but it certainly looks like they have the ability to deliver more.  The long pole in the tent is issues like what cropped up with both engines (Trent 1000 and GEnx-1B) over the last few days with the GE being the most serious of the issues.  However, I do not anticipate that these events are going to be show stoppers in terms of continued delivery and safe operation of the airplanes that are or will be in service. 

Most of the noise is due to the media making it out to be more of a bigger deal just because of the history of the 787.  Scott Hamilton has put out a post where he believes that the GEnx engine problem on Saturday is a non-issue.  The NTSB is investigating and the engine which shed the parts will be torn down to discover what the problem may be.  Given that the GEnx engine is flying on both the 787 and 747 and hasn't experienced an issue thus far in revenue service of either of those airplanes.  It is too early to say if this issue will delay any 787 deliveries but GEnx powered 787s were flying today with one more flight scrapped before take off at Everett. In my opinion 787s will continued to be delivered this month.

Boeing and NTSB investigating 787 engine issue

Both Boeing and the NTSB are investigating an issue with a GEnx powered 787 that was about to conduct its first flight yesterday.  The aircraft in question is ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) for Air India.  This is the 2nd 787 built at the Boeing Charleston facility. Apparently a piece of debris fell out of the engine and landed on a grassy area next to the runway at Charleston.  The piece was apparently hot enough to spark a small fire that was promptly extinguished by the USAF fire fighting crew stationed at the joint use airport.

The investigation is in the early stages however I do think that this might be an issue that is either a one off manufacturing or maintenance issue issue with this particular aircraft and I have doubt that this would be a fleetwide issue as the GEnx-1B has been performing well up to now. I do suspect that this is more of a ground maintenance issue (perhaps something not secured properly) but the NTSB will have to make that final determination along with Boeing and GE.  At the time of the incident, ZA238 was doing taxi tests prior to undertaking its first flight.  It is not known if this will have a delivery impact on other 787s both at Charleston and Everett.  Currently there are 8 GE powered 787s that are ready or being readied for delivery including the for Dreamliners for Air India.  The other carriers include Ethiopian, Qatar, and Japan Airlines.  The aircraft for Qatar had completed a tour to the Farnborough Airshow where it performed an aerial routine for three days and returned to Everett without incident.  Jon Ostrower of the Wall Street Journal has a great article about the situation.

First 787 B-1 flight in almost 3 weeks scheduled to be conducted today

The first 787 B-1 flight to be conducted in almost three weeks is scheduled to take place today at about 10AM PT (1PM ET) today.  ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) will fly its first flight.  This aircraft is the first production airplane to be assembled though it is also the aircraft that needed the most modifications. It has been in Everett for over three years since it started final assembly. If goes according to plan, this aircraft should deliver to ANA by middle to late August depending on any issues that would need to be corrected.  The flight is on Flightaware.

According to a posting on the airliners.net forum, Boeing is planning to deliver some where around 7 '87s in August as follows:

ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) to ANA - 2nd to 3rd week of August
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to Qatar - 4th week of August
ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) to Ethiopian - 4th week of August
ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) to ANA - last week of August
ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) to LAN - last week of August
ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A) to ANA - last week of August
ZA182 (LN 70, JA828J) to JAL - last week of August

Notable is the absence of ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) which was the first 787 that did not need to go to the EMC.  This airplane probably needs a little bit more time to finish off the 300 some assembly tasks that remained after being pulled out of the assembly line.  This list has the potential of adding 3 maybe 4 more 787s if the Indian Government finally approves the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing.  That is the potential of 10 to 11 deliveries next month and would take Boeing to almost to the 2/3 point of the total 787 deliveries that they have projected for 2012 (35 to 42 with 12 currently delivered).

787 info from Boeing's 2nd quarter earnings call

                                         Ethiopian's First 787 (ZA262) returning to Everett.
                                         Photo by Bernard Leighton

Today was quite a day for Boeing and the 787. A lot of news today so let's get started

Boeing's Earnings Call

Boeing Earning's came out today and showed quite an improvement.  As far as the 787 is concerned Boeing said a few things that were already known but let's go through the highlights.  Boeing is saying that they're seeing a high level of completion of aircraft coming out the final assembly line at Everett.  It's close to 100% apparently.  They're still tracking to increase production to 5/month by the end of this year and 10/month by the end of 2014.  Boeing is expecting to see higher 2nd half 787deliveries both from aircraft coming off the assembly line as well as those finishing change incorporation.  However Boeing does expect to see an increase in inventory as deferred production balance was recorded at $13.2bn and is expected to grow to about $20bn by the time the production rate hits 10/month after which there should be decline in this balance as airplanes are cleared out of inventory and the production system stabilizes at that rate.  In terms of deliveries Boeing said the deliveries were paced by customer demands and request.  It seems that this may be the reason why there hasn't been too much 787 pre-delivery activity at Everett.  They also said that aft fuselage production is a "hot spot" for Boeing in terms of 787 production and they still have some issues there which they're addressing. It's not a show stopper for the production rate increase. Jim McNerney said that the most important thing is that production is now occurring without the need to send airplanes to the Everett Modification Center (EMC) for change incorporation.  He also said that there is plan to get the aircraft that have to go through the EMC out in an orderly fashion.  He said that the EMC will continue to see work for the next year and half plus (so let's assume for another 18 to 21 months or end of first quarter 2014). Aside from Air India (a deviation from planned deliveries) which is all to well known, Boeing does have a ramp plan for deliveries for the second half of the year.  In terms of the improvement they said that ZA182 (LN70, JA828A) had about 160 open jobs left so they're seeing a lot of improvement in the condition of assembly.  Boeing is also seeing improvement at the EMC in terms of work behind schedule and shortages. They also said that the Trent 1000 gear box issue won't affect deliveries and 4 of 5 of airplanes ANA airplanes have been fixed and it's a very minor issue.  This issue won't affect deliveries of the airplane.  Boeing also gave more indications (there is greater fidelity on the evaluation of the business case) that they will do a 787-10X and that a decision should come later this year or early next year.  McNerney said that it does look like a good airplane which would have a lot of market demand. 

Looking ahead to 787 delivery forecast for the remainder of the year, Boeing said that they still expect to deliver between 35 and 42 787s for all of 2012.  They have already delivered 11.  This means that between 24 and 31 787s will be delivered by the end of this year and this will be split 50/50 between airplanes from EMC and those coming off the final assembly lines in Everett and Charleston.  Thus Boeing is saying that they would deliver between 12 to 15 787 each from EMC and the final assembly lines over the next 5 months starting in August (1 787 already has been delivered from the EMC in July).

Air India

Delivery of Air India's 787s is one step closer as an Indian Government Group of Ministers (GoM) had approved the deal between Boeing and Air India.  The matter now goes to the Indian Cabinet for final approval.  If and when that approval is given the delivery will take place and the fly aways will occur.  It's not known when the Indian CCEA will meet next but it is at his next meeting that the compensation deal will be discussed.

Aeromexico Order

Aeromexico added to the days news with a huge letter of intent (LoI) for 90 737 MAX8 and 737 MAX 9 as well as 10 787-9.  The deal is worth about $11bn.  It is not known if this order is inclusive of options of not but when the deal is finalized the numbers will then be known.  Aeromexico currently has orders for the 787-8 (both purchase and lease) and is expected to start taking deliveries starting in 2013.

Other News

The first 787 fro Ethiopian (see picture above) flew back to Everett this afternoon. ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) flew back in the Ethiopian scheme after spending close to two weeks in Ft. Worth being painted.  There were other 787s flights today but were test airplanes conducting Boeing test flights out of Boeing Field.  It is not known when the next B-1 flights will occur next but there are still some 787s that need the new gear box fro the Trent 1000 powered airplanes.  The timing of the next 787 test flights is also clouded by the planned closure of Everett's main renway from 4pm on August 2nd to 8AM on August 6th.  It is possible that Boeing can get 1 possibly 2 787s into the air for their B-1 flight before August 2nd but only if they're ready.

Trent 1000 gear box issue holding up deliveries: Aviation Week

According to an article by Guy Norris in Aviation Week, the gear box issue is holding up deliveries of the Trent 1000 powered aircraft as Boeing needs replacement gear boxes from Hamilton Sundstrand.  There are numerous 787s on the Boeing flightline waiting to be delivered.  Of the 9 airplanes that I have listed as in final preps for delivery at Everett, 5 are equipped with the Trent 1000 engine.  According to Guy Norris' report, 17 Trents in total are affected by the gear box issue of which nine are on undelivered 787s that are earmarked for ANA.  Boeing and Rolls Royce are waiting for replacement gear boxes from Hamilton Sundstrand.  Of the other 4 787s at Everett/Ft. Worth that are waiting to be delivered, one is in paint (ZA262), one for JAL (ZA182) just emerge from the paint hangar and will robably start pre-flight work soon, the one for Qatar Airways is still finishing up interior IFE work (ZA461) and another 787 that just appeared at the Boeing fuel dock, looks to be United Airlines first 787 (ZA288) and still has to go through painting before moving on the pre-flight.  All these are equipped with the GEnx engines. 

So it appears the bottleneck may be with the gear box issue with the Trent 1000 engines as each of the 5 Trent 1000 aircraft are all at different point in the pre-flight timeline. Each aircraft has to wait it turn while the aircraft that is further along must clear each pre-flight milestone before the B-1 flight.

In the meantime, the Trent 1000 gear box issue is likely a minor problem that affects a very small portion of the 787s in service but it's an issue that has attracted significant attention because it is the 787.

Lastly, LAN says it is expected to take delivery of its first 787 (ZA536) in late August or early September.

787 power and delivery woes

With about a week to go in the month it is obvious that Boeing will have delivered only one 787 in the month but what is most disconcerting is the lack of any real progress on the Everett (and Charleston) flightline.  There are 7 Dreamliners that have "finished" final assembly and change incorporation with another two that are either being painted or are finishing up some last minute inflight entertainment installation tasks.  It's the 7 airplanes that has caught peoples' attention.  Thus far Boeing has not conducted a single 787 test flight (B-1 or otherwise) since ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) for Ethiopian flew to Ft. Worth, Texas to be painted.  That was done on July 12th.  Additionally this aforementioned aircraft should have finished its paint job and flown back to Everett. Typically painting should have been completed in about a 10 to 11 days so it should fly back any day now, perhaps tomorrow. 

The first thought that the issue might be related to the gear box issues that has grounded 5 ANA 787s (3 have since gotten replacement parts and are back in the air).  However this is an issue that has effected (it appears) some of early delivered ANA 787s with the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 engines.  There are 787s with the GEnx engine that are ready to fly but have not flown just as yet.  Whatever is keeping these planes on the ground may be fleetwide though it hasn't stopped revenue flights.  It might be that Boeing is trying to finish up assembly tasks on each of these airplanes.  Boeing will have its earnings call on Wednesday morning.  It is hoped that there would be more clarification on this issue at that time.

In the meantime, the Trent 1000 gear box issue is likely a minor problem that affects a very small portion of the 787s in service but it's an issue that has attracted significant attention because it is the 787.

Updated 787 delivery info for July and August

There is new updated delivery information from a variety of sources concerning future deliveries of the 787.  First off, ANA apparently has taken delivery of another 787 probably yesterday.  ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) was delivered and should fly to Japan tonight.  Apparently that looks to be the only delivery being made this month. However there is more clarity on future deliveries including those to Air India.
Air India - Ajit Singh, the Minister of Civil Aviation, reported that the GoI's CCEA should be taking up the matter of the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing in about 15 days. Now how soon after approval will these airplanes be delivered is another question.  According to a posting on airliners.net, the carrier can take delivery of four '87s before August 5th from the flightline at Charleston.  This is a rumor and there is nothing official to back it up as of yet.  We just have to stay tuned for this drama to play out.

LAN - The first aircraft for LAN has now been moved to the flightline and will presumably be starting the pre-flight testing prior to its B1 flight.  There has been some confusion as to when LAN will take this airplane but now there seems to be some clarification.  The CEO of LAN told Flightglobal that the carrier will take delivery in September.

ANA - ANA's 787 fleet is well into double digits with several more on the way.  There are 4 787s that are winding its way through pre-flight at Everett.  According to a posting in airliners.net, ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be making it's B1 flight tomorrow (July 18). This airplane is projected (of course not certain) to deliver around August 8th.  The three other 787s are all airplanes that didn't need any re-work done at the EMC.   It is quite possible that all these four airplanes can deliver in August though it's more likely that a couple will deliver in August and a couple more in September from this batch.  There are still 2 more late build airplanes that are in storage that wold have to finish some amount of change incorporation and I would expect that these airplanes will be delivered later this fall. a, ZA118 is registered as JA813A (LN 67).

Finally, here's an interesting article that sums up Farnborough 2012 air show from aerospace analyst Saj Ahmad.

Are 787 deliveries slowing down?

UPDATE: I got word that Qatar's first 787 will be delivered in August but it's still open as to when in August.  Given that at Everett there are only three 787s that have had their B-1 flight thus far (ANA, Qatar, & Ethiopian), I'm going to say that only one 787 will be delivered this month.  There hasn't been any word on other 787s that will have their B-1 flight but I expect that at least 2 more will take to the skies for the B-1 flight before the end of July in order to be delivered next month (ZA100 and ZA135).

There has been raised hopes and expectations that aviation geeks around the world would see an avalanche of 787 deliveries starting this summer.  However we've seen only a trickle and I am at a loss to explain it. The Everett ramp is getting full of 787s that have either finished change incorporation or are airframes that do not need to go through the EMC but just have a few hundred small jobs left to be done.  As successive airplanes come out of 40-26 the number of jobs that remain have fallen to less than 150 with ZA182 (LN 70) for JAL.  This aircraft has yet to appear on the Everett flightline though it has been more than 9 days per line move on July 3, about 12 days ago.  We may yet see ZA182 as early as tomorrow or Monday. 

In terms of getting these planes ready for delivery, while the monster jobs of change incorporation have been completed on those airplanes, there is still a long line for delivery as these planes must go through the step by step process of pre-flight ground test, Boeing flight tests, customer flight tests as well as customer inspections and quality control reviews.  It appears that there doesn't seem to be enough resources to tackle all this work for the 8-9 aircraft that are lined up ready for their turn.  Both ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) and ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) were expected to be delivered this month to ANA. It's looking like on ZA508 will make it and there is rumors of extra work needed to prepare ZA100 for flight.  This is the aircraft that needed the most rework as it was the first production standard 787 to enter final assembly.  It is not known when this airplane is to finally take to the air.

In the meanwhile the first 787 for LAN, ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) is now on the 40-51 ramp after being painted and is presumably finishing up some assembly tasks.  There is some controversy about when it is to be delivered. with some reports saying delivery is in August but LAN is saying that they expect to take delivery of its first 787 late this year.  Right next to is a 787 for ANA registered JA813A.  This is registration that was assigned to ZA510 (LN 59) and previously I had it listed as in storage and not undergoing any change modification.  I doubt that this airplane could have prepared to quickly though it is possible that this airplane may certainly have had some work completed while outside the EMC and it engines attached. I'm trying to find out the true identity of this airplane beyond the registration.  There are some late build 787, notably ZA118 (LN 67, JA816A) and ZA119 (LN 69, JA817A) that have "gone missing."  I'm assuming that these airplanes, if one of them is not the ANA 787 that currently is sitting on the 40-51 ramp, are in the paint hangar.

Lastly, it is quite possible that ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) for Ethiopian and ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways could be ready for delivery by the end of this month.  The former has conduct two Boeing test flights (including the ferry flight to Ft worth) and is currently being painted in Texas. I would expect this airplane back in Everett in about 7 to 8 days. It could could still conceivably conduct customer flights after its return to Everett before the end of the month.  ZA461 is more of a question mark as Boeing needs to complete some interior assembly tasks (may be related to the IFE System) prior to further Boeing and customer test flights.  Again it is entirely possible that his airplane could deliver by the end of this month.

Don't even ask me about Air India.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 4

Farnborough 2012 concluded with a bang from Boeing and United Airlines.  A huge 150 aircraft deal for 100 737 MAX 9 and 50 737-900ER all firm.  Airbus did well with the widebody A330 but no orders for the A350 or A380.  In fact Airbus admitted that it wold be a stretch to book 30 A380 orders this year.  They were hoping for a book to bill ratio of 1 in that program this year.  Here's the final tally for this years air show:

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
Avolon - 15 x A320NEO - MoU
CALC - 28 x A320, 8 X A321 - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
CIT Group - 5 x A330- Firm
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU
Middle East Airlines - 5 x A320NEO, 5 x A321NEO - MoU
Synergy - 6 x A330-200, 3 x A330-200F - Firm
UTAir - 20 x A321 - MoU

ATR
Air Lease Corp - 2 x ATR 72-600
LAO Airlines - 2 x ATR 72-600
Nordic Aviation - 1 x ATR 42-600
TransAsia - 8 x ATR 72-600

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
Avolon - 10 x 737 MAX 8, 5 x 737 MAX 9, 10 x 737-800 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU
United Airlines - 100 x 737 MAX 9, 50 x 737-900ER - Firm

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI
Chorus Aviation - 6 x Q400 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Mitsubishi
SkyWest Airlines - 100 x MRJ - MoU

Sukhoi
Interjet - 5 x SSJ-100

First 787 for LAN painted and on the flightline

Everett photographer Matt Cawby got a stunning photo of LAN's first 787 ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) out on the 40-51 ramp after being painted.  The aircraft though reported by CAPA to be delivered in November is supposed to be delivered in August.  I expect that LAN should have at least two more 787s delivered by the end of this year.

787 production improving says Pat Shanahan

Speaking at the Farnborough Air Show, Pat Shanahan  is indicating that the backlog of 787s at Everett will be gone sooner then everyone realizes.  Boeing is making constant progress on the production front to such an extent that the backlog of 787s that are complete and ready to be delivered is growing.  The situation has been likened to people waiting on line at the market waiting to check out with each person waiting their turn on line.  The rate of 787s being released from production however, is exceeding the delivery rate though this should turn around sometime around the fall.  Dominic Gates put together a piece on the 787 production rebound and plans for future production of the 787-9 and the 777X at Everett as well as the future of the EMC and the 787 surge line.  It is expected that the surge line should be activated for production sometime this fall and allowing Boeing to go t o 5/month.  Dominic also confirmed the ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be delivered this month to ANA.  This is the first 787 to enter final assembly back in June 2009.  It has taken three years to deliver this airplane.

Other 787 News

During this pas week, Rolls Royce announced at the Farnborough 2012 air show that they will develop a new version of the Trent 1000 engine called Trent 1000-TEN (for Thrust, Efficiency and New technology).  This engines is to have a 3% improvement in specific fuel consumption over the current package "B" Trent 1000 though I'm not sure how it compares to the the Package "C" engine which is currently undergoing testing in Derby, UK.  The engine is to power the 787-8, 787-9 and the proposed 787-10 aircraft at a thrust of 76,000 lbs but can go as high as 78,0000.  The idea of being able to power all three versions of the 787 is to provide for commonality for customers who order different versions of the aircraft.  It'll be interesting to see if there is commonality across the older versions of the Trent 1000 family.  The engine is expected to enter service in 2016 though a customer has yet to commit to the engine.  Click here to read Rolls Royce's press release.

The Air India saga continues with no delivery date in sight unfortunately.  Final approval could come tonight or it could come when hell freezes over, I'm betting on the later.  Reuters put out an article describing how the Air India 787 order is in the limbo by being caught in the Government of India bureaucracy.  Currently the Ministry of Civil Aviation is waiting for some sign off from some obscure other department and then some such committee can sign off on the compensation deal between Boeing and Air India.  This can really mess with your head. Bottom line is that the 4 airplanes currently sitting on the Charleston flightline aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 3

Farnborough 2012 is starting to wind down though I do expect one more big order from United Airlines to come through tomorrow.  Rumor has it that this will be for the 737 MAX and the order wll be announced in Chicago. I'll still list it here as part of the running order totals from Farnborough.

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
CALC - 28 x A320, 8 X A321 - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
CIT Group - 5 x A330- Firm
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU

ATR
Air Lease Corp - 2 x ATR 72-600
LAO Airlines - 2 x ATR 72-600
Nordic Aviation - 1 x ATR 42-600
TransAsia - 8 x ATR 72-600

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
Avolon - 10 x 737 MAX 8, 5 x 737 MAX 9, 10 x 737-800 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Mitsubishi
SkyWest Airlines - 100 x MRJ - MoU

Sukhoi
Interjet - 5 x SSJ-100

787 delivery insight from CAPA

Center of Aviation has released it 787 delivery expectations for several carriers, including Air India.

To summarize, CAPA says that they do expect Air India to take delivery of the 3 787s that are parked at Charleston sometime this month.  We're still waiting word from the Government of India if they have approved the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing. I expect that the only other airline to take 787s this month will be ANA which has several that are ready to be delivered this month and next month.  Air India is expecting 4 more planes by the end of the year.

CAPA is expecting that Qatar and Ethiopian will receive their first 787s in August and thus far that looks to be the case as ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) took its first flight yesterday but still has to be painted. It should receive three more before the end of the year.  Qatar's first 787 (ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) is finishing up its Farnborough tour tomorrow and returning to Everett that evening.  It will undergo further outfitting at Everett.  Qatar should receive 4 more planes by the end of the year.

China Southern will take its first 787 in August as well and will have a special scheme on it. IT should receive 2 more by the end of the year.  The three airplanes are still undergoing change incorporation with two of them inside the EMC.

United released images of the special livery scheme that will be painted on their 787s.  They're expecting their first plane in September reports are between September 15th and September 30).  It will receive one more in October, 2 in November and one more in December for a total of 5 by the end of the year.

Interestingly, the CAPA report says that LAN will get its first 787 in October.  Currently the first one is in the paint hangar, presumably being painted.  I don't know if this is true or if Boeing is going to hang on to the airplane until October.  It does look like it is ready for delivery though and LAN should take 2 this year and three next year.  There is one more currently in final assembly and one more should enter 40-26 by middle of next month.  I do think that Boeing could deliver one each month from August to October for a total of three. There are two more that are being stored on the flightline at Everett.

Lastly LOT Polish Airlines is slated to receive one 787 in November but there is one that is in change incorporation right now with four more slated to start final assembly between the end of July and middle of October.  Surely several of these airplanes should be ready before November?

Interesting we should look at the totals that are expected to be delivered for the aforementioned carriers:

Air India - 7
China Southern - 3
Ethiopian - 4
Qatar - 5
LAN - 2
LOT Polish - 1
United - 5

This adds to 27.  Add the 11 delivered so far and you're at 38.  I expect that JAL should get at least 4 more and ANA should get 6 more before the end of the year.  That is 48 total deliveries.  My target for Boeing is 50.  Clearly with Air India expecting to take delivery starting this month we can see a big 2nd half from the 787 in terms of deliveries of the airplane to customers.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 2

More 737 MAX activity from Boeing but Airbus and Cathay Pacific make a little noise as well today.For all the hype surroundng "Boeing's Show", it really is a slow.

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Farnborough 2012 - Day 1

First day at Farnborough was Boeing's day and already there are rumors that there will be more 737 MAX deals with GECAS and United Airlines on the order of 75 and 100 each respectively.  The United order announcement is rumored to take place in Chicago which is where the corporate headquarters for both UAL and Boeing are located.  The GECAS order might be announced tomorrow. Here's a review of the order action at Farnborough 2012:

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Updated 787 Production - 7/5/2012

The 787 production and disposition list has been updated to reflect the firing order for airplanes 81 to 90.  This lot of aircraft should be in production through mid-October 2012.  There are no new customers on the list but LOT Polish Airlines will receive its 3rd, 4th and 5th 787s from a total order of 8.  All these aircraft should be delivered, assuming no issues with production or the aircraft, by the end of this year.  The airlines that are to get aircraft from this lot of 10 are Hainan (2), ANA, JAL (2), LOT Polish (3), Qatar, and Air India.  Airplane 90 also marks a start of the block point of 787s where Boeing is to get the 787-8 down to the promised contractual weight when the program was launched in 2004.  The airline that will receive the first aircraft in this block point is Air India, surprisingly.  Please note that this firing order can change between know and the time that these airplanes start final assembly perhaps even after they've been rolled out of the final assembly hall.

787 Movement - July 3, 2012

There was quite a bit of moving around for Boeing's 787 inventory both in Everett and in Charleston. To start, Boeing confirmed that the two Air India 787s that are ready for delivery were flown to Charleston to free up space on the Everett ramp.  Boeing said that it was a good move as several of the first few Charleston built planes are also destined for Air India.  Speaking of Air India 787 deliveries, there is word that the Ministry of Aviation won't sign off on the deal until next week because one of the ministers is on vacation.  Apparently in India business stops if someone is out on vacation.  IF, and that is really big IF, everything get signed off by the government of India deliveries conceivably can start towards the end of next week or early the following week.  There is a great article in the Charleston Regional Business Journal about Air India, the 787s and the attitude behind the whole fiasco but it sums up the attitude of the GoI and Air India quite nicely.

Boeing flew ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to Boeing Field on Sunday in preparation for it to fly to Farnborough on Thursday.  Word is delivery to Qatar Airways should occur the week of July 16th IF (another big IF) there are no contractual hang ups.  A date has not been set and given the unpredictability of Qatar CEO Akbar Al Baker this rough time frame could slide.  Qatar's pilots still has to fly the aircraft I believe and this probably won't occur until after the Farnborough Air Show.  The airplane is flying July 9th to July 11th and I anticipate that it should return to Everett on July 11th.  When it returns to Everett this plane will be carrying two Qatar Airways pilots who might conduct customer flights and may eventually ferry the aircraft back to Doha when delivery is complete.  It is conceivable that Qatar could take delivery before Air India making this carrier the third airline to fly the 787 and the first one outside of Japan.

ANA took delivery of its 10th 787 on Sunday, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) then flew to Haneda International Airport last night.  ANA should be taking delivery of 4 to 5 more 787s by the end of August given the number that is in pre-flight.  Another ANA 787 will be pushed out the door tonight.  This airplanes is ZA119 (LN 69) will go to the 40-51 ramp to finish off minor assembly tasks before going off to paint.

On the production front, Boeing pulled out ZA238 (LN 54) from building 88-03 in Charleston.  It is now on the flight line along with the other three Air India bound 787s. No word on if assembly has started on ZA431 (LN 76) for Hainan Airlines but I'm assuming for now that parts are still arriving. At Everett, Boeing has moved another 787 inside the EMC. ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) for Qatar Airways is now inside where it is continuing with change incorporation along with units for China Southern, United and JAL.  One or both of the China Southern airplanes should be out by August where it will go through painting and go into pre-flight.  This airline can possibly take delivery in September.

I have updated the tables below to reflect the current disposition of all the 787s that are in production or have been delivered.  Have a safe and Happy 4th of July!

Air India 787s on the move, Qatar 787 readied for Farnborough

Over the weekend Matt Cawby spotted the two Air India 787s that are ready for delivery sporting temporary US registration numbers on their fuselages.  This lead to speculation that the aircraft are to be flown out of Everett for possible storage, maybe in the desert.  Well the speculation was mostly correct.  The two 787s, ZA233 (LN 29,VT-AND) and ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) will be flown to Charleston to join sistership ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) on Monday, July 2nd.  Now the reason why it is being flown to Charleston isn't officially disclosed but the obvious reason could be for a triple delivery to AIr India and that still could happen but sources have told me that delivery to Air India is still listed as "TBD".   It is conceivable that these three airframes for Air India will be delivered from Charleston but another reason is that if Boeing is able to turn the keys over to the carrier between July 4th and July 8th, they will be unable to fly away during those dates as the runway at Everett will be closed.  This way Boeing leaves open the delivery and fly away during those dates by transferring these airplanes to Charelston.  The most likely reason is to free up space in Everett for other aircraft that are ready to be delivered.  Already ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) is already out of paint and need to prepare for pre-flight. ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is currently sitting in the fuel dock sans its rudder (don't know why) this aircraft is projected to be delivered at the end of July but it still needs to have its rudder reattached and go through pre-flight.  The pace of aircraft reaching the flightline ready for pre-flight is quickening and Boeing needs the space.  Given the uncertainty of the Air India deliveries this is a good move to keep the pace at Everett moving.  ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways is already at Boeing Field to prepare to fly to Farnborough later this week this airplane is still projected to deliver later this month.  Another flightline stall should open up tomorrow as ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) will deliver today, as far as I know, and should fly away tomorrow July 2.  ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) should deliver around July 11th with fly away on July 12th.

On Tuesday another line move should occur which will push out ZA119 (LN 69) for ANA and will mark the start of final assembly for ZA537 (LN 74) for LAN.

787 Flying During Farnborough

This morning Boeing announed that the ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways will be flying demonstration flight from July 9 to July 11th during the Farnborough Airshow.  This is the first time Boeing will be flying acommercial demonstration at an air show in over 25 years. Rumor has it that Boeing is doing this at the behest of Qatar Airways chairman Akbar Al-Baker (U-Turn Al) but that is not confirmed.  According to Randy's Blog, ZA461 should arrive at Farnborough on Thursday July 5th.  It will fly a validation flight the next day and fly demonstration flights on 4pm each day from July 9th to July 11th.  The demo flight is 7 minutes long and will be flown by Boeing pilots.

The aircraft will have to leave from Boeing Field, according to Matt Cawby, the runway at Everett will be closed from July 4th to July 8th re-opening on July 9th.  This also means no B-1 787 flights or delivery fly aways during this period.  If there are to be any B-1 flights prior to the runway shut down, it would most likely be ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) as this one seems closest to conducting any B-1 flights.  It is also possible that the two Air India 787s at Everett can be delivered before the runway closure but again this is all dependent on the Indian Government approving the deal between Air India and Boeing.  I have no word on when this may happen.

In the meantime, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) was supposed to have been delivered yesterday but appeared to have been taken on another test flight yesterday evening and is know expected to be delivered on July 1st and expected fly away on July 2nd.

787 Half Time Report

So now that we're coming to half way through the year I thought to do a brief review and then look forward to the second half of the 787 ball game.
Deliveries in the first half were shaky. We got word of the incorrectly installed shims on the horizontal tailplane (HTP) on many of the aircraft that were built and in service. This slowed down deliveries as it wasn't a hard problem to solve but more of a question of access to the areas of the aircraft that needed correction. As a consequence we've only seen 11 deliveries (what will be 11 deliveries by June 30th). There weren't any deliveries in February and May. The former probably due to the shim issue and the later due to issues with Air India. It was expected that Air India would have taken two 787s in May. It is now looking more like a July delivery though if the GoI approves the agreement between Boeing and Air India. ANA will be taking delivery of one 787, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A), on June 28th and should fly away on June 29th.  When this airplane is delivered Boeing would have turned over 11 787s so far this year. There is a slight chance that if the GoI approves the deal between Air India and Boeing on June 28th then Boeing could possibly deliver 2 or possibly all 3 787s that are currently ready for the carrier.

As we got into late spring early summer Boeing was now sending complete aircraft that had went through the full change incorporation process and were ready for pre-flight. These airplanes were augmented on the flightline by the first airplanes that go straight from the assembly line to the flightline (ok so maybe a slight detour to get a few minor jobs done). This is a major accomplishment for Boeing as now they have more certainty in the supply chain and their production system. ZA135 (LN 66) still had a about 300 small jobs to be completed but as Boeing get further into regular production, the number of these jobs will shrink. 

So in short by the end of June Boeing will have delivered 11 787 so far in 2012 and they will have 10 more that are ready for delivery in July and into August.  This number also includes the three for Air India that are ready to be delivered so Boeing really has 7 to work on as far as delivery preparations are concerned.

Can Boeing deliver 10 next month?  It sure is possible but they will need to devote a lot of resources to get those planes ready, especially those coming off the assembly line.  Currently ZA 135 (LN 66) just made its way into the paint hangar today while ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is now on the flightline ready for ground and flight tests.  They still have to deal with the other aircraft that are coming off the assembly line,  currently 1 787 every 9 days, the next line move is July 3.  Boeing should push out 4 787s from 40-26 to the flightline during the month of July but I don't think they'll deliver in July due to the backlog of airplanes that are currently have to go through pre-flight.

Looking forward.

The next 6 months ahead is full of promise with deliveries to a lot different customers but also challenges when Boeing attempts to ramp to 5/month which I anticipate should occur around October.  Beyond ANA and JAL, Boeing should deliver to Air India (fingers crossed), Qatar Airways, Ethiopian, LAN, United, LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan and China Southern.  I'm still maintaining my view that Boeing will deliver 21 airframes straight from the assembly line (no change incorporation) in addition to the 11 that were delivered in the first half of this year.  That is 32 airplanes.  Add to that at least 4 787s (I think they do have the capability to deliver 5-6) from Charleston and yo are now at 36.  There are currently 6 more that are in various stages of pre-flight (doesn't include LN66 and above or anything built in Charleston) or ready for delivery.  Now we are at 42. Assuming 1.5 787s per month delivered from the inventory that is stored around Everett (that is 9, then we can realistically see 51 deliveries this year.  This does not even factor in other production positives like activation of the surge line or the increase to 5/month.  The final total could be substantially higher than 51 787s with these conditions factored in.  Again this is all assuming that production continues without a hitch and that Boeing continues to drive down the assembled 787 inventory.

More 787s coming out the door - June 22, 2012

Boeing is really on a roll in terms of getting 787s outthe door and prepared for delivery.  Tonight ZA536 (LN 68) will pushed out the door and parked on the 40-51 ramp to finish off minor assembly tasks before moving on to the paint hangar and then on to pre-flight.  This airplane will be the first one for LAN.   I'm not sure if the other airframes on the apron will be moved to make room for the third airplane.  Additionally, ZA262 (LN 49) for Ethiopian was moved from the Everett Modification Center to the Fuel Dock.  I suspect it will go through paint and fueling tests before moving out to flightline for pre-flight in the next couple of weeks.  Word is that we should see the first flight of Qatar's first 787, ZA461 (LN 59, A7-BCB) this Sunday but that is the rumor for now and nothing concrete as of yet.  Lastly, United Airlines confirmed that it will be receiving its first 787 in September.  More than likely this will be ZA288 (LN 53, N27904).  This aircraft is still in the EMC being prepared for delivery but recently had its GEnx engines attached.