Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Boeing up to 22 787 deliveries in 2012 more to follow

Boeing has delivered it 25 787 overall and 22nd of this year.  Boeing has also surpassed the most deliveries for one month and is now up to 6 787s delivered this month with the potential for 3 to 4 more by the end of this week.  ZA178, (LN 27, JA824J) was delivered yesterday afternoon and I believe it should fly away tonight.  There aren't any deliveries planned for today but I do believe we can see the first Charleston built 787 delivered this week to Air India, ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) as well as one more to ANA, ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) and one more to Ethiopian ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR).  It is possible for Qatar first 787, ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to be delivered but there is still no word on this. If all four aforementioned aircraft are delivered then Boeing would have achieved 10 deliveries in one month and would have delivered 29 787s to 7 customers.  The 2012 total would be 26 and they would need to deliver 8 airplanes per month over the next quarter to achieve 50 787 deliveries.. a doable but challenging task.








10 comments:

Andrew Boydston said...

I don't think a straight line analysis for deliveries is reliable in that if it takes x time from paint shed to delivery. Each aircraft has unique issue and have different invested time and materials in the aircraft. Two identical looking aircraft on the flight line look ready to go where one may be a lot further along than the other. Boeing has the internal progress on each aircraft and knows the work remaining down to the dust bunnies that need to be swept out. Visual accountability is a road full of disappointment and surprise. Even if the aircraft is ready to roll is the customer ready with the money, training and infrastructure? I suspect Boeing will have a few rabbits to pull out of the December hat along with a few disappointments. So doing averages during the year will have to work until all the deliveries are counted. I guess that is why January becomes an anemic month because all extra resources a moved to December Completions and January is a restart month. Just my two cents.

Rob said...

I think you are a little optimistic in your projections.

They are at 22 now, if you figure all 3 that you say are ready for delivery will deliver this gets you to 25. Assuming by the end of the year all of the planes currently in flight testing (3) and pre-flight prep (8) deliver that gets us to 36.

At very best you can figure 2.5 a month of the planes coming off of the line (even though some of those have been accounted for above. That gets you to 43. I don't see any way they can figure out how to get all of those plus another 7.

Also remember even if they get to 10 this month, it is more like 7 because 3 of the units for Air India have been ready or near ready since June.

Just my thoughts, I would love to hear what others think.

Capt747ret said...

There are 12 frames that are undergoing change incorporation. Of those there are 6 that are very late builds. Would it be possible that some of these could be delivered by year end?3

Uresh said...

It's quite possible.

TurtleLuv said...

Rob,

United, for example, is expecting I believe three of those frames undergoing refurb by the end of the year. So, those three, plus another 4 (like lines 59, 61, 62, and maybe 44 or an earlier one) would make 50. Maybe they even squeeze one more off the FAL and beat 50. I wouldn't put money on it, but it definitely is possible.

Daetrin said...

What really is the status of LN42 (China Southern)? Seems it's been in prep forever.

Also, are the Everett FAL slot assignments correct? There are no birds in Position 2 in either 40-24 or 40-26?

Lastly, didn't someone on A.Net say that LOT has been pushed out of Position 4 already (LN78)?

Uresh said...

1) Don't know
2) Yes
3) No

petera380 said...

Anything known yet about the line number assignments after LN090?

Thanks.

Uresh said...

Nope.

william said...

Hey does anyone know why Jal8101 which is a delivery flight went south towards lax and then towards hawaii. The normal route takes them over Alaska. What Flight aware is saying now it that the lenght of the flight is 17 and a half hours which seems weird.