Ethiopian 787 catches fire at Heathrow

This is breaking right now so much of this information can change but an Ethiopian 787 parked at a remote stand at London's Heathrow International Airport caught fire. The Heathrow fire brigade responded and the fire appear to be out.

Pictures from the scene show damage to the top of the fuselage just forward of the tail. The cargo doors were closed but passenger doors on both sides (doors 3 & 4) are opened. This area may be the aft galley of the aircraft and not near the APU lithium ion battery.

This fire does not appear to be related to the lithium ion batteries given the location.  This particular aircraft is ZA261 (LN44, ET-AOP) and was delivered to Ethiopian on Nov. 20, 2012.

The flight arrived around 6:30 AM London time and was parked at a remote stand as it's return flight to Ethiopia was not due to leave until 9:00PM. The fire occurred at about 5:15PM, almost 4 hours before departure. At that time the aircraft should be empty and completely powered down. Again it is too early to say what happened but I am leaning towards this NOT being a battery fire but perhaps some device in the galley being left on. The investigation will determine the final cause.

As to repair and return to service of this particular aircraft, that will be determined by the airline with Boeing's help. It all depends on the extent of the damage to the fuselage. 

Second 787-9 to start final assembly soon; 787 production contiues at Everett

Boeing is preparing to assemble the 2nd 787-9 flight test aircraft in Everett late this week. Already fuselage sections are arriving and being delivered to building 40-24. The second aircraft, ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) should load into the first position around July 12th. So far the assembly of the 1st flight test aircraft seems to proceeding without a hitch and currently occupies the 3rd position in 40-24. This aircraft will have to go to 40-26 for some systems testing as well as to have its aqueous wash (washing out the fuel tanks) and may be put back into 40-24 for further systems testing as well as any final flight test equipment installation. I still expect it to make an appearance out on the flightline by the end of this month or very early in August after painting and I wouldn't discount the possibility of first flight by the end of August.

Meanwhile in 40-26, Boeing has resumed assembly of production 787-8s. Production was temporarily stopped in June so that Boeing can reconfigure the final assembly space and remove un-necessary like the MOATT. Boeing resumed 787 production on June 26 with loading of ZA563 (LN 127, N965AM) for Aeromexico (via ILFC).

Boeing has thus far delivered 2 787s to Chinese carriers this month and they have the potential to deliver up to 12 more 787s this month:

Air India - ZA242 and ZA243
ANA - ZA514
China Southern - ZA381
Ethiopian - ZA260
Hainan Airlines - ZA433, ZA434
Japan Airlines - ZA186
LOT Polish Airlines - ZA274
Qatar Airways - ZA466, ZA468
Thomson - ZA320

It is possible that ZA577 (for ILFC/Norwegian) may be able to deliver this month but it would still need some paint on the tail. Many of these airplanes would really need to conduct customer flights at this point though at least 5 still need to fly their B-1 flights.

Lastly, Brendan Kearney of the Charleston's Post and Courier had an interview with Willy Geary who is the director of operations at Boeing Charleston. He says that the Charleston assembly is still only putting out 1.5 airframes per month and they will not achieve 3/month until first quarter of 2014. If true then Everett is currently producing at 5.5/month (or one airplane loading every 5.5 days) and utilizing only one line (40-26) since 40-24 is exclusively for the 787-9 flight test airframe final assembly until at least early fall. Later on both the temporary surge line in 40-24 and the main assembly line on 40-26 will have to split the 8.5/month rate (when 787 production rate break to 10/month occur) until Charleston is ready to break rate and go to 3/month. It is not clear why Charleston is not at 2/month and why the delay to 3/month but this is clearly not a supplier issue. It now remains to be seen if the issues in Charleston will derail Boeing's efforts to hit 10/month by the end of this year.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 

787 June 30, 2013 update

At the end of the 1st quarter 2013, Boeing was struggling to re-right the 787 ship in light of the lithium ion battery issues which had forced a grounding of the aircraft.  One quarter later the ship is righted and with it the deliveries have re-commenced.  Boeing had several Dreamliners waiting for delivery when the FAA had lifted the grounding.  Boing delivered 7 aircraft in May and 9 in June with delivery later in the summer poised to be at higher rates. 

Production did slow down as Boeing had spent most of this month in reconfiguring and reconstructing the main 787 final assembly line in building 40-26.  Because of this and the Temporary Surge Line in 40-24 being used exclusively for 787-9 final assembly, 787-8 production from Everett was essentially stopped.  Aircraft still rolled off the line as these were loaded prior to June but there won't be too many 787s rolling out in Everett during July.  Still, we should see the 1st 787-9 rolling off the line in July and most 787s coming out of 40-26 or 40-24 were ones that were already assembled but needed to finish some minor assembly tasks during the next one month.

To date Boeing has delivered 17 787s to customers. They have 29 post-L/N 66 Dreamliners waiting for delivery as well which I believe they should deliver by the end of September. Boeing should be able to assemble 24 more 787s through mid November from all three lines.  It takes Boeing about 6 weeks from roll out to deliver the aircraft in to the customer though this varies from customer to customer. Additionally, Boeing should be able to deliver 9 787s from EMC in the next 6 months.  This would total 62 787s delivered in the second half of the year.  Combined with the 17 already delivered and the total project 2013 787 deliveries should be around 79.  This total would not include the 787-9 built this year.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 

787 spreadsheets

There's been a lot of chatter about viewing the spreadsheets.  In the past I've been embedding the sheets in my posts (not all of the posts though).  I'm going to continue to embed them in most of my posts but I'm also going to add a web link. 

If it proves to be popular I may discontinue to embed them and just use a web link.  I'm trying to see if there is a way I can add the ability for viewers to filter the spreadsheets but not edit or alter the information (I need to keep control over that process, I'm kinda of a control freak that way). If someone knows how to add the filtering capabilities to published sheets, I appreciate if you would let me know.

Here are the web links for the more popular sheets:

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery


I hope it makes the blog more enjoyable.

Uresh

Paris Air Show 2013 - Day 3 Airbus and Boeing Order Summary

Here's the round up of orders for Boeing and Airbus during the first 3 days of the air show:

Boeing

GECAS - 10 x 787-10 (MoU)
Skymark Airlines - unknown number of 737 MAX (MoU)
Qatar Airways - 2 x 777-300ER (7 options) (Firm Order)
United Airlines - 20 x 787-10 (10 conversions from 787-9, 10 new order) (MoU)
British Airways - 12 x 787-10 (MoU)
Singapore Airlines - 30 x 787-10 (Exercise of existing options needed to be confirmed)
ALC - 30 x 787-10, 3 x 787-9 (MoU)
Korean Airlines - 5 x 747-8I, 6 x 777-300ER (MoU)
CIT - 30 x 737 MAX8 (10 new orders, 20 conversions, Firm)
Oman Air - 5 x 737-900ER (Firm)
Travel Service - 3 x 737 MAX8 (MoU)
Ryanair - 175 x 737-800 (Firm)

Totals by model:
737-800 - 175 (Firm)
737-900ER - 5 (Firm)
737 MAX8 - 10 (Firm), 20 conversions (Firm), 3 (MoU)
747-8I - 5 MoU
777-300ER - 2 firm, 6 MoU, 7 Options
787-9 - 3 MoU
787-10 - 92 MoU (does not count the 10 conversion from 787-9)

Airbus

Doric Leasing - 20 x A380-800 (MoU)
ILFC - 50 x A320 NEO (Firm)
Lufthansa - 70 x A320 NEO (Firm), 30 x A320 CEO (Firm)
Syphax - 3 x A320 NEO, 3 x A320 CEO (MoU)
easyJet - 35 x A320 CEO; 100 x A320 NEO (MoU)
Air France - 25 x A350-900 (Firm)
Sri Lankan - 6 x A330-300, 4 x A350-900 (MoU)

Totals by model:
A320 CEO - 30 Firm, 38 MoU
A320 NEO - 120 Firm, 103 MoU
A380 - 20 MoU
A350-900 - 25 (Firm), 4 (MoU)
A330-300 - 6 (MoU)

Boeing launches 787-10; Paris Air Show 2013 - Day 2 Airbus & Boeing Order Summary

Boeing Photo

After more than 5 years of will they or won't they, Boeing finally did...they launched the 787-10 after years of speculation and being at times being put on the back burner while Boeing grappled with getting the 787 program on track during the three plus years of delays.

The announcement was anti-climatic as the Boeing board gave management the authority to Offer (ATO) last year and speculation increased when British Airways exercised 18 787 options earlier this year and Singapore Airlines concluded an agreement to buy the jet last month pending formal launch of the aircraft which took place today.  The formal launch of this aircraft kicks off a 5+ year development cycle which will lead to first flight in 2017 and certification and first delivery in 2018.  It is not known to whom the first delivery will be made.

There were 5 launch customers announced today:

ALC - 30
British Airways - 12 (they exercised 18 options so I assume the other 6 are for either the 787-8, 787-9 or a mixture of both)
GECAS - 10, this is the first time that GECAS is buying the 787 despite parent GE being one of two engine suppliers.
Singapore Airlines - 30
United Airlines - 20 with 10 being a conversion of previously ordered 787-9.


Here's the round up of orders for Boeign and Airbus during the first 2 days of the air show:
Boeing GECAS - 10 x 787-10 (MoU)
Skymark Airlines - unknown number of 737 MAX (MoU)
Qatar Airways - 2 x 777-300ER (7 options) (Firm Order)
United Airlines - 20 x 787-10 (10 conversions from 787-9, 10 new order) (MoU)
British Airways - 12 x 787-10 (MoU)
Singapore Airlines - 30 x 787-10 (Exercise of existing options needed to be confirmed)
ALC - 30 x 787-10, 3 x 787-9 (MoU)
Korean Airlines - 5 x 747-8I, 6 x 777-300ER (MoU)

Totals by model:
747-8I - 5 MoU
777-300ER - 2 firm, 6 MoU, 7 Options
787-9 - 3 MoU
787-10 - 92 MoU (does not count the 10 conversion from 787-9)

Airbus

Doric Leasing - 20 x A380-800 (MoU)
ILFC - 50 x A320 NEO (Firm)
Lufthansa - 70 x A320 NEO (Firm), 30 x A320 CEO (Firm)
Syphax - 3 x A320 NEO, 3 x A320 CEO (MoU)
easyJet - 35 x A320 CEO; 100 x A320 NEO (MoU)

Totals by model:
A320 CEO - 30 Firm, 38 MoU
A320 NEO - 120 Firm, 103 MoU
A380 - 20 MoU

Lastly, there should be at least 2 787s delivered this week: ZA241 (LN 72, VT-ANM) for Air India and ZA273 (LN 87, SP-LRD) for Polish LOT should be delivered this week.  I think it's possible for a couple more deliveries this week but I expect a quite a few deliveries next week to finish up June.


 

Paris Air Show 2013 - Day 1 Airbus & Boeing Order Summary

The 1st day of the Paris Air Show has wrapped up and there were a few surprise orders, most notably from GECAS for the 787-10.  The leasing unit of General Electric has not placed an order for the 787 since the program was launched in 2004 despite the parent company manufacturing engines for the aircraft.

GECAS took up 10 787-10 which are to be finalized once Boeing launches the aircraft which is anticipated to be tomorrow.  Unsurprisingly, these aircraft will be powered by the GE GEnx-1Bs.

The other surprising order was from Doric Leasing for 20 A380s.

Lastly,
I do expect that Boeing, with the launch of the 787-10, will hit the 1000 787 order mark quite soon. It will depend on how long it will take to finalize the MoUs and some may already finalized and just needs Boeing's formal launch to finalize the contract.  Boeing has firm orders for 890 787s and just need another 110 more which I believe they can easily reach with the launch of the -10.

Here's a run down of today's order activity:

Boeing

GECAS - 10 x 787-10 (MoU)
Skymark Airlines - unknown number of 737 MAX (MoU)
Qatar Airways - 2 x 777-300ER (7 options) (Firm Order)

Airbus

Doric Leasing - 20 x A380-800 (MoU)
ILFC - 50 x A320 NEO (Firm)
Lufthansa - 100 x A320 NEO (Firm)

Breaking: Jon Ostrower and WSJ reporting 787-10 launch

UPDATE: The WSJ says the formal launch will be at Paris and Boeing will announce launch customers from the US (United, Air Lease Corp), Europe (British Airways), and Asia (Singapore Airlines). No word on numbers or if these will be firm orders.

I only have a 140 character tweet from Jon but he's reporting that Boeing is formally launching the 787-10 with orders from Singapore, United, IAG, and Air Lease being seen as possible launch customers. If true, this news comes 4 days before the start of the Paris Air Show and a day before the first flight of the A350-900 which the 787-10 will compete directly against. Obviously Boeing is trying to steal some of Airbus' thunder with tomorrow's first flight.

787 Odds and Ends

As we get closer to the Paris Airshow due to start next Monday, here is a rundown on some news as of late.  Nothing earth shattering or unexpected.

Paris 2013

This show should shape up to be the battle of the widebodies with the A350 vs. the 787 and 777X.  There will be some notable orders but I think this is where Boeing will announce the formal launch of the 787-10 with Singapore Airline's order for 30 aircraft.  The carrier already has selected the engine for their 30 -10s (Trent 1000-TEN), something they wouldn't be doing if launch wasn't imminent.  I also believe that the launch will not only include announcement of the Singapore order but will also announce the order from IAG (British Airways) for 18 -10s.  This is the exercise of the 18 options the carrier held but the 787 model wasn't announced when IAG announced the exercise of the options.  I think that announcement will be made at Paris. There may be other 787-10 order announcement made at Paris.  I don't think Boeing will announce the launch of the 777X at Paris but will heavily talk it up behind the scenes with customers.  Look for the launch announcement on Tuesday, June 18th.

Meanwhile ZA242 (LN 90, VT-ANN) is currently flying to Le Bourget where it will fly demonstrations during the first 3 or 4 days of the show.  ZA465 (LN 99, A7-BCD) will join ZA242 later (probably on Saturday or Sunday) but will be on static display through out the airshow.

787 Production

Production has been continuing and I do believe that ZB001 has moved on to the next line position in 40-24 and should remain there for the next 10-12 days while assembly and testing continue on this aircraft.  I continue to believe that this aircraft should be out on  the flightline in the 3rd or 4th week of July and possibly flying by early to mid September.

787 Flight Testing and Delivery

Production flight testing continues as Boeing is trying to be aggressive in delivering the large backlog of 787s that are sitting on the Everett and Charleston tarmacs.  Interestingly Boeing delivered 7 787s last month but none from Charleston.  I do expect that 3 to 4 787s should be delivered from Charleston this month.  Currently I have 5 787s listed as ready for delivery along with another 10 that have started production flight tests.  I expect at least 2 to 3 787s will have their B-1 flights in the next week in order to be delivered by the end of this month.

Finally a blog note.  I've added a 5th table below which shows the 78s that are currently in production (see 787 Current Production).  I does not show 787s that have been delivered or ones that will not be delivered (like the first 3 test flight aircraft).  Hopefully this will aid in understanding what is going on at Everett and Charleston.
 

Boeing confirms start of 787-9 final assembly

787-9 in position 1 in 40-24.  Boeing Photo

 

 

Boeing confirmed today that they had started final assembly of the first 787-9 on May 30th as this blog revealed on May 14th.  Boeing also confirmed that the two other test frames will be assembled in the 40-24 building which is the Temporary Surge Line where ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) is currently being built.  This airframe should make the move to position 2 around June 9th if the main assembly that is sequenced in position 1 as well as any tests are satisfactorily completed by then.

 

I still believe that this plane should roll out of final assembly around the 3rd to 4th week of July. It'll be great to see this aircraft next to the 787-8 to get a true appreciation of its size.

Below is Boeing's press release:

First Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner Begins Final Assembly

Newest 787 complements, extends the super-efficient family

EVERETT, Wash., June 2, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] has begun final assembly of the first 787-9 Dreamliner. The newest member of the 787 family began taking shape on schedule May 30 in Everett, Wash., when Boeing started joining large sections of the super-efficient jet.
"From the start, the entire 787-9 team has focused relentlessly on execution so that we fulfill the commitments to our customers," said Mark Jenks, vice president, 787 Airplane Development, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Integrating the 787-9 into our production system on time is another clear sign that we are well prepared and well positioned for the work ahead."
Boeing's global partners delivered the first 787-9 sections to final assembly on or ahead of schedule, and strong progress continues beyond, with major assembly under way on the other flight-test airplanes. "The dedication, quality and skill of our partners are helping drive our disciplined performance," said Jenks.
Boeing will build the first three 787-9s on its Temporary Surge Line in Everett to allow for smoother integration of the 787-9 into the production system while continuing to ramp up production across the 787 program.
The 787-9 will complement and extend the 787 family, offering airlines the ability to grow routes opened with the 787-8. With the fuselage stretched by 20 feet (6 meters), the 787-9 will carry 40 more passengers an additional 300 nautical miles (555 kilometers) while using 20 percent less fuel than similarly sized airplanes. The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8, offering the features passengers prefer such as large, dimmable windows, large stow bins, modern LED lighting, higher humidity, a lower cabin altitude, cleaner air and a smoother ride.
The vertical stabilizer on this 787-9 reflects the new Boeing Commercial Airplanes livery, a refreshed look for the Boeing family of airplanes that started with the 747-8 and evolved with the 737 MAX. Many features of the livery on the original 787 are reflected in the new design. The prominent number designator on the tail helps distinguish various models within the same product family.
First flight of the 787-9 is scheduled for the second half of 2013, with first delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand set for early 2014. 20 customers around the world have ordered 355 787-9s, accounting for 40 percent of all 787 orders.

 

787 program ends May on a high note

During the month of May 2013, Boeing had solidly left the lithium ion battery issues behind as the 50 787s delivered prior to the grounding received the new batteries and containment system and returned to revenue service.  May also so Boeing deliver 7 Dreamliners to 5 customers including 2 customers who received their first 787s (TUI - Thomson Airways and China Southern Airlines).

787 deliveries went to:

ANA (2)
China Southern Airlines (1)
Japan Airlines (1)
LOT Polish Airlines (1)
TUI Travel (2)

LOT's 3rd 787 on final into New York's JFK while over Long Island, June 1, 2013

 

 

The 7 deliveries was a solid performance for Boeing who kept the production going despite the uncertainty of when the aircraft would be allowed to return to service.  During this time Boeing also continued with ground tests of the 787 in preparation for production flight testing and delivery.  The deliveries capped off a feverish race to return the 50 787s already delivered to revenue service which Boeing had completed early last week.  The last two carriers, Japan Airlines and LOT Polish returned to revenue service today with LOT inaugurating it Warsaw-JFK service on the 787 (see picture above of the first 787 to land at JFK).

 

 

In addition to the return to service and the delivery accomplishments during May, Boeing also started final assembly on the first 787-9 on May 30th.  This is yet as unconfirmed by Boeing but sources have told me that this is the planned load date into position 1 for this aircraft.  It is being assembled in building 40-24.

 

I am expecting deliveries for June to be higher than May with at least 14 if not more 787s being delivered to customers.  Here's my prediction for June:

 

Aeromexico (ILFC)* - 1

Air India - 1

ANA - 2

British Airways* - 2

China Southern - 1

Hainan Airlines* - 2

LOT Polish - 1

Japan Airlines - 1

Norwegian (ILFC)* - 1

Qatar Airways - 1

Thomson Airways - 1

 

Many of the airplanes that would be slated for delivery in June already have had their B-1 flight or more. 4 customers will be receiving their first 787s this month as well.



 

My First 787 sighting!

In the 5+ years that I've been writing this blog, I have never seen a 787 up close until today.  Living and working in NY doesn't afford me many opportunities to see one and I had to be content with pictures that others have taken until today.  So I got my cherry popped so to speak!

LOT 006 from Warsaw to JFK flew directly over my house here in Long Island (I'm fortunate/unfortunate to live right under one of the main approaches to JFK) and using flightradar24.com I was able to time my picture perfectly even though I didn't have the use a digital SLR, I was able to see my first 787 in real life and somewhat up close as LOT 6 (ZA272, LN 86, SP-LRC) flew final into JFK as LOT re-started 787 flights for the first time since the grounding.  Above is my picture as it flew directly over my house just a few minutes ago.

Singapore Airlines agrees to 787-10 commitment, formal Boeing launch right around the corner

Singapore Airlines is the first airline to publicly announce that they have an agreement with Boeing to buy the next variant of the 787, the 787-10. Singapore Airlines has said that they intend to purchase 30 787-10s contingent on formal launch of the airplane by Boeing. SIA expects deliveries of the -10 to start in 2018-2019. They already have orders for 20 787-9 that will go to their low cost subsidiary Scoot.

I expect Boeing to formally launch the variant at the Paris Air Show next month and I also expect that the launch announcement will include launch orders from at least 2 if not more customers. One of these customers would most likely be IAG (British Airways) who exercised 18 787 options. Even though IAG didn't announce the version they will buy, it is widely expected to be the 787-10.

Fuselage sections starting to arrive into Everett for 1st 787-9

Boeing is starting to receive the fuselage sections for ZB001, the first 787-9 to be built.  Boeing received the first section 41 (forward fuselage) from Spirit AeroSystems from their Wichita plant.  This section is not too different from the forward fuselage for the 787-8 thus integrating it into the production system shouldn't present any challenges.  Boeing may have received another fuselage section (either the rear or center section) very early this morning a 747-400 Dreamlifter did arrive into Everett from Charleston where these sections are built up. All the fuselage sections should be in Everett in the next few days if they're not all there already. 

Boeing will load the first 787-9 into position 1 in 40-24 on May 30.  Sources revealed to me that this aircraft should transfer to position 2 around June 9...10 days after first being loaded into position 1 which is quite surprising since it takes about 11 to 12 days for each production 787-8 to progress down each line position.  Extrapolated this could mean that ZB001 would be assembled in about 40 days if there are no complications during the final assembly process.  I do expect it to be a little longer though due to systems integration testing during final assembly which would add about another week at most.  Thus ZB001 could take about 7 weeks in final assembly before it is rolled out to the paint hangar and eventually the flightline to begin gauntlet testing.  ZB001 could be out of 40-24 by the third to fourth week of July, another week for painting and out on the flightline in early August.

In somewhat related news on the production front, it does appear that Boeing will temporarily be slowing down 787-8 production as there looks to be some sort of construction going on within 40-26.  I surmise that Boeing will be getting rid of or modifying some of the original production tooling in position 1.  This would include the "MOATT" or "Mother Of All Tool Towers" which was envisioned as a device to quickly and efficiently join the fuselage sections along with the wings and horizontal and vertical stabilizers.  Unfortunately the promise of MOATT didn't live up to the reality and Boeing is now using some more traditional tools like overhead cranes to move around some of the larger structures like the wings.  These changes will ultimately help Boeing to get to 10/month but in the short term it will slow down production for a couple of weeks.  Because of this ZA562 (LN 127) for ILFC/Aeromexico won't be loaded until after June 9th, perhaps the 10th.  This shouldn't impact deliveries too much as Boeing is still trying to catch up on delayed deliveries due to the lithium ion battery issue which grounded the 787 and stopped deliveries.

 

China to issue 787 airworthiness certificate early next week

UPDATE: CAAC, the Chinese aviation regulator has approved the 787 for use by the country's airlines today (5/23/13). China Southern shortly followed by Hainan should be taking delivery next week. Pilots from both carriers should be conducting customer test flights within the next few days, perhaps as early as today.

Thanks to our blog readers CX880 and Weijie Deng, a firmer picture now has emerged regarding the start of 787 deliveries to Chinese carriers. A team from China Southern Airlines is in Seattle to conduct customer flight(s) and to complete paperwork needed for delivery and payments. China's aviation regulators are expected to give its approval for its carriers to operate the 787 on May 27th and China Southern is expected to formally take delivery on May 28th. I expect China Southern to take delivery of 8 787s this year.  The first one to be delivered will be ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725).

Hainan can also take delivery of up to 2 787s this month from Boeing's Charleston facility. Both ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) and ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) are painted and have completed Boeing test flights and await us timer inspection and test flights. It is unclear if Hainan will take both this month or one but it does appear at the least that the deliveries will be closely spaced to one another. I expect Hainan to take delivery of 6 787s this year.

Revised 787 Delivery Projection for 2013

Back In January of this year and prior to the 787 grounding, I had published my 787 delivery expectations for 2013. While the Boeing continued to execute the production plan despite the grounding and even hit the 7/month production rate far earlier than I had projected, I was expecting that this rate break would occur in early July, it occurred in April when Boeing loaded ZA452 (LN 114, G-ZBJC), Boeing will still have the after effects of the delays to deliveries because of the grounding.  Boeing has a finite number of resources to devote to production flight and ground testing though I have no doubt that they will try to draw on the maximum number of test flight personnel to mitigate the effects of the grounding and get the deliveries back on schedule by the end of the year.

Boeing has said that they will deliver more than 60 787s this year.  Thus far they have delivered 3; one each to Air India, ANA, and LOT Polish and I believe that when 2013 is complete, Boeing would have delivered a total of 75 787s or which 10 would be pre-L/N 66 aircraft that had gone through the modification process at the EMC in Everett.  20 of these 75 aircraft would come from the final assembly line in Charleston, SC and the remainder from the Everett line.  This number does not include the 3 787-9s expected to be built in Everett and flying as part of the -9 flight testing and certification process.

One thing to note that this number includes 4 787s to be delivered to United Airlines.  UAL, its most latest 10Q filing with the SEC on April 25th, said they expect to receive 2 787s this year but I do not believe that this takes into account to increase in 787 production rate that occurred in April.  Their 10Q in July 2013 should shed a little bit more light on their delivery expectations.  Another measure to look at is the actual delivery date of the first 787 to Royal Brunei Airlines.  Before the grounding this airlines was expecting its first 787 around September 1, 2013.  If Boeing is able to deliver around this date then we know that they are back on schedule though there are some 51 787s ahead of it at this point.

Below is my table of the customers and how many 787s I expect them to receive from today on out to Dec. 31st.

 

May 787 Delivery Predictions

Here is a list of 787s that I expect to be delivered during the remainder of this month. Please note that the deliveries to the Chinese carriers are contingent upon the aircraft obtaining its airworthiness certificate from Chinese civil aviation authorities but booth China Southern and Hainan have said they expect their deliveries later this month.

Air India - ZA241 (LN 72, VT-ANM) - so far had 5 test flights and may have one more before being delivered

Hainan - 2 787 from Charleston - ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) & ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) pending certification and customer test flights

China Southern - ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) pending certification and customer test flights

JAL - ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) had three test flights thus far, may have one more to do

Thomson Airways - ZA317 (LN 92, G-TUIA) - Thomson's first 787 has had 5 test flights thus far.

These six together with the two already delivered would allow Boeing to claim 8 deliveries in May which would be a very healthy re-start to deliveries after three and a half months of growing inventory at Everett and Charleston.

 

Boeing to start 787-9 final assembly on May 30

Source revealed that Boeing will load ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) on May 30th. This should lead to the rollout of the aircraft approximately 2 months later in late August. First flight is anticipated later this fall though timing is still uncertain.

Boeing has taken delivery of ZB001's horizontal and vertical tail plane as well as the wings.  In the coming two weeks we should see the delivery of the fuselage sections into Everett.

Boeing is shifting production of 787-8s to the main 40-26 and 88-03 assembly lines in Everett in case issues with the assembly of the first 787-9 encounters problems in 40-24. Already Charleston is taking on more 787-8 but the bulk of the 787-8 production will go to the main final assembly in Everett.

The other two 787-9 test airplanes will follow ZB001 in the 40-24 surge line.

Meanwhile Boeing has resumed deliveries of the 787-8. ZA513 (LN83, JA818A) was delivered to ANA marking the airlines 18th 787 and Boeing's 51st 787 delivered.

LOT Polish Airlines was to have taken its 3rd 787 (ZA272, LN 86, SP-LRC) today but that is being delayed due to some minor issues with the aircraft. Delivery is now expected to take place around Thursday.

 

Upcoming 787 deliveries

Now that the battery modifications are underway Boeing is gearing up to re-start deliveries to customers.

First up will be deliveries to ANA and LOT Polish Airlines.  ANA (ZA512, LN 83, JA818A) should deliver tomorrow 5/13/2013 (flyaway the next day) while LOT Polish (ZA272, LN 86, SP-LRC) should deliver the following day on 5/14/2013 (flyaway the next day).

Thomson Airways is expecting their first 787 (ZA317, LN 92, G-TUIA) on 5/30/2013 with the second (ZA318, LN 94, G-TUIB) to follow on 6/2/2013.

JAL can also take delivery this week of ZA184 (LN 89, JA830J) though I haven't heard about a delivery date.

Hainan and China Southern could take their first 787s as early as the end of this month but that could easily slip into June since the delivery is waiting on Chinese aviation authorities certifying the 787 for use by Chinese carriers.

British Airways is looking to take delivery within the next few weeks but it does look like that they'll pick up their first 787s next month.

 

Air India 787 to perform at Paris Air Show

This is plain speculation on my part but Boeing may be prepping ZA242 (LN 90, VT-ANN) for Air India to put on a flying display at this years Paris Air Show in mid June.  The aircraft flew to Boeing Field last week then flew a flight on Friday at BOE787.  I believe that this flight was practice flight for an aerial demonstration at the show. Given the flight number it flew under is normally reserved for special marketing flights or for air show flights, I feel that this is strong evidence that this aircraft will by at the Paris Air Show.  If so this aircraft probably won't be delivered to Air India until mid to late June.

Transaero Airlines to get early build 787s

I got word that Boeing has officially allocated 3 very early build 787s to Transaero Airlines.  The three frames are ZA800 (LN 11), ZA801 (LN 12), and ZA803 (LN 14).  All three were previously going to be delivered to ANA but has since asked for later built 787s.  Boeing still has about 7 more that need to be re-allocated to other airlines.  These are among the group of 787s that are known as the "terrible teens."  It has been rumored that Transaero would pick up these aircraft from Boeing on the cheap when they closed on the order of 4 787s early last year.  It's also rumored that Lion Air will be picking up their 5 aircraft from this block as well but that change has yet to be reflected in the system.

Production flight testing has picked up today with ZA318 (LN 94, G-TUIB) for Thomson making its first flight today.  ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) made it 12th flight and this aircraft should be delivered to ANA late next week though it still has to go through customer acceptance flight(s). Two Charleston built 787s for Hainan  swapped places today as ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) flew back to Charleston and ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) flew to Ft. Worth for painting from Charleston.

 

Boeing BoD aproves ATO for 777X

Boeing Board of Director gave BCA the ok to enter into discussion with customers on the pricing, delivery, and technical aspects of the 777X a third generation of the large Boeing twin.  With this ATO, Boeing now has 2 large twins with the Authority to Offer to customer airlines but Boeing still needs to formally launch the aircraft once they have acceptable deals in place for each.

One question that still remains is where to build the 777X and especially the wings which Boeing plans to construct from composites (CFRP).  More than likely I expect that both the aircraft and the wing would be built in Everett due to the expense of establishing a new final assembly site along the difficulty of transporting a large wing from site to site.

I do think that it is not unreasonable to think that both the 787-10 and the 777X can be formally launched at the Paris Air Show though it can also happen at the Dubai Air Show in November.

787 production testing accelerating

In the last 8 days Boeing has sent 6 787s into the air for each aircraft's first flight since the grounding ended.  This included two 787s that were flown on their B-1 flights today, April 30th.  Boeing had indicated that they would aggressively conduct production testing in order to get caught up on deliveries.  Though Boeing hasn't delivered a Dreamliner since the grounding ended, they have said that deliveries would re-start in early May.  It may re-start by the end of this week though I do expect that ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) should be delivered sometime next week after customer test flights are conducted by ANA pilots.

I expect that in the next 8 weeks, Boeing should be able to deliver 787s to Air India, JAL, ANA, Qatar Airways, ILFC (for Norwegian), LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan, Thomson Airways, and China Southern.  Thus far, 787s for Hainan, Air India, ANA, Thomson, LOT Polish, and JAL have entered production test flights with the revised lithium ion battery set up and there is a pattern.

Boeing is conducting test flights roughly in order that each aircraft emerged from final assembly.  There have been exceptions most notably a Hainan airframe which does not have any engines and a couple for LOT which are expected to be delivered later in the year.  If the current pattern holds then I expect that from Everett the following will be making their first flights in this order:

ZA383 - China Southern
ZA318 - TUI
ZA319 - TUI
ZA513 - ANA
ZA185 - JAL
ZA465 - Qatar

From Charleston these aircraft will be making their first flights in this order:

ZA434 - Hainan
ZA243 - Air India
ZA384 - China Southern
ZA385 - China Southern

I estimate that Boeing can deliver between 12 to 14 787s by the end of the second quarter including a few to Chinese carriers who are expecting that the 787 will be finally given its airworthiness certificate by Chinese authorities next month.

Prior to the grounding it took Boeing about 6 weeks after rolling out a 787 to the flightline to conduct all the necessary company and customer tests, finalize paperwork and make final delivery.  I see no reason why that would change now, though some aircraft that have already had quite a few test flights done prior to the grounding won't take that long since much of the flight testing is already completed.

Flight testing will continue to pick up pretty aggressively over the next few weeks as Boeing needs to work down the inventory of 37 787s that have built up over the last few weeks.

 

More progress on the 787 return to flight

As the 8 airlines get closer to resuming their 787 service I've updated the list below since new information has been coming out:

ANA - early June (after completing test flights and pilot training)
Air India - around mid May
Ethiopian - April 27
JAL - early June (after completing test flights and pilot training)
LAN - unknown
LOT Polish Airlines - June 5
Qatar Airways - end of April
United Airlines - May 31st but may be able to restart earlier

Today the amended Airworthiness Directive was posted in the Federal Register thus making the FAA's certification of the battery fix official.  Any US registered 787 can now fly with the battery fix. Already Japan and Europe has followed the FAA's lead on this as has approved of Boeing's fix though I also expect that India, Ethiopia, Chile and Qatar will all follow suit fairly quickly.  The first set of 787s should be completed by now.  LOT Polish Airlines is (or already has) ferrying its 787 stranded in Chicago to Addis Ababa where a Boeing team is there to install the battery fix on the 4 aircraft belonging to Ethiopian.  Word is that LOT's second aircraft, which is currently in Warsaw, will also be flown to Ethiopia for the fix.  Qatar 787 that was stranded at London Heathrow was ferried back to Doha for the fix and one United jet at LA was ferried to San Antonio, Tx. for the repairs.

Given Japan's approval of Boeing's fix, ANA announced that starting this Sunday, May 28th, their 787s will fly about 230 test flights in order to re-train their team of 787 pilots as well as reassure their passengers that the airplane is safe to fly one.  They plan on resuming regular passenger service in June.  ANA is also looking to see a resumption of 787 deliveries with ZA512 (LN 82, JA818A) being the first 787 to be delivered since the grounding in January. It can be delivered as early as late next week but ANA pilots still have to fly the customer flights on this airplane. 

Outside of this one pending delivery, I can see LOT Polish, Air India, JAL and even China Southern and Hainan taking deliveries in May. In June we can see deliveries to Thomson, Qatar, JAL, ANA and ILFC being made.  I do expect that Boeing will now be aggressive in their production flight test program as they need to clear the inventory sitting at Everett and Charleston.

Lastly, a reader sent me this link to a video from the BBC detailing the 787 battery fix work that is going on in Ethiopia.

 

Boeing gives upbeat assessment of 787 during earnings call

 During the 1st quarter 2013 earnings call, Boeing CEO Jim McNerney gave an upbeat assessment of the 787.  Despite the lack of 787 deliveries in the past quarter Boeing's earnings managed to stay strong given increased deliveries of the 737 and 777.  Now that the FAA has given approval to the lithium ion battery fix Boeing is prepared to resume deliveries around early May.

Among the information on the 787 that was passed along during the call were:

• Installation has begun on 10 in service 787 and 9 production aircraft thus far.
• Boeing initiated  a rate break to 7 aircraft/month.
• All engineering work on the 787-9 is completed.  Final assembly will start by mid year (I'm expecting very late May. First flight this fall and first delivery in the first half of 2014.
• 787-10 interest remains very high and Boeing anticipates formal launch "soon."  With delivery slots sold out Boeing may have to look at a further increase in the 787 production rate beyond 10/month and this issue is currently under evaluation.  The rate must be stabilize at the 10/month before consideration of a rate increase beyond that rate.
• Travelled work is close to 0 and part shortages are minimal.
• Most of the battery work should be completed by mid May on the in service 787s.
• The per unit cost of producing each 787 has come down 60% from LN 8 to LN 100.
• Boeing is maintaining its delivery guidance of more than 60 787s this year and said that 15% to 20% will be delivered in the second quarter.

Assuming a delivery goal of 65 787s this year this would mean that Boeing is planning to deliver between 10 and 13 787s by the end of June. It is possible to get a better idea of the total deliveries for this year when the number of deliveries during the 2nd quarter is known.

 

Boeing starts 787 mods.

Here are the locations of the grounded 787 that are in service with the 8 carriers thus far.

Today 5 (morning time in Japan), Boeing started working on 5 787s belonging to ANA.  It's probably not a stretch to assume that there are modifications that are starting to be done on the other 787s around the world.  It does look like that Ethiopian will be the first to return to service as they are planning to restart service around April 25th.

Here are the current locations of the 50 in service 787s around the world:

Santiago, Chile - 3 - All LAN

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - 4 - All Ethiopian

Frankfurt, Germany - 1 - ANA

Mumbai, India - 6 - All Air India

Haneda, Japan - 11 - 10 ANA, 1 JAL

Kumamoto, Japan - 1 - ANA

Matsuyama, Japan - 1 - ANA

Narita, Japan - 8 - 1 UAL, 5 JAL, 2 ANA

Okayama, Japan - 1 - ANA

Takamatsu, Japan - 1 - ANA

Warsaw, Poland - 1 - LOT Polish Airlines

Doha, Qatar - 4 - All Qatar Airways

London, UK - 1 - Qatar Airways

Boston, USA - 1 - JAL

Chicago, USA - 1 - LOT Polish Airlines

Houston, USA - 4 - All UAL

Los Angeles, USA - 1 - UAL

Here's the list of carriers that have the 787 and when they will be returning to service (approximately):

ANA - early June (after completing test flights and pilot training)
Air India - around mid May
Ethiopian - April 25
JAL - early June (after completing test flights and pilot training)
LAN - unknown
LOT Polish Airlines - October but will probably restart earlier
Qatar Airways - end of April
United Airlines - May 31st but may be able to restart earlier

FAA give it's blessing to Boeing's 787 fix

The FAA, as expected, approved Boeing's plan to retrofit the 787s with new batteries and a new containment system to eliminate the risk of fire and electrolyte spills in the two E/E bays. Very importantly the 787 doesn't loss its ETOPs 180 certification meaning they can fly as much as 3 hours from a divert airport.  I do believe that Boeing will still pursue the ETOPS 330 certification but the FAA will make them jump through hoops for that which they will do. While the AOG (aircraft on Ground) teams from Boeing are in position, Boeing still needs to ship the kits to the locations where each aircraft is while GS Yuasa will be shipping out the new batteries to those same locations as well.

Now that the FAA has given approval the next step is for Boeing's AOG teams along with airline maintenance personnel to start preliminary work on the aircraft until they get the first kits and replacement batteries.  They will in stall them at which point it's up to the each country's aviation regulators to sign off on the modification and lift the grounding on the 787 based in that country.  The FAA says they will send out instructions to the operators detailing the fix and then publish the final airworthiness directive in the Federal Register making the approval official.  It is after that that any US-based airlines with the 787 whose aircraft has been modified under the directive will be allowed to resume revenue service of the 787.  This would apply to United Airlines as it is currently the only US operator of the aircraft but typically foreign aviation regulators follow suit.  One exception though maybe Japan's JCAB.  They may require more stringent oversight of the lithium ion batteries including more frequent visual inspections and more detailed monitoring of the voltage in each battery.

The timeline to get these airplanes flying again doesn't end with the regulators tamp of approval for each of the airlines. The carriers must engage in flight training as well as scheduling the resumption of service and, of course, sell tickets for those flights.  Some carriers may re-substitute the 787 in place of the aircraft type currently flying certain routes while other will re-start routes like the Tokyo-Boston route serviced by JAL when the fire broke out at Logan.  Routes that were temporarily suspended will likely take longer to get back on line but I see that happening by June. Still I do believe that Boeing will be able to complete work on all 50 aircraft in about 6 weeks. Each AG team has about 30 members (this jives with what I reported in an earlier post with a team in Ethiopia).  There are 10 teams that are deployed though for certain there must be several teams in Japan as well as one in Qatar and Ethiopia.  The 787s that have to be modified are in 9 different countries including the United states so it would be reasonable to assume that there are 2 teams in Japan as there are 23 787s on the ground in that country that need the modification.  I anticipate that one team each will be sent to Chile, Germany, the UK, Qatar, India, Ethiopia, Poland, and one will be in the US.

So when can flights resume? Well Ethiopian has been vocal about resuming flights next week which is possible just as long as the fix is in place and that the Ethiopian aviation regulators sign off.  Qatar Airways is also eyeing restarting revenue flights by the end of April.  I don't expect JAL and ANA to start flying until mid May at the earliest.  United is currently evaluating when they can restart their service.

Deliveries are also the minds of 787 watchers.  Boeing is concurrently modifying the 787s at Everett and Charleston.  So far as I know there are three airplanes that have the battery fix:

ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) for Polish LOT
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) for ANA
ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) for China Southern

The later was supposed to make its first flight today but it didn't come to pass and may fly tomorrow.  One thing Boeing made clear is that they do intend to still deliver 60+ 787s this year per their guidance but they also said that production flight testing will have to be aggressively ramped up. I still believe that Boeing will have to deliver on average of 8 787s per month in order to meet heir guidance. They have to clear the current ready to deliver backlog of 34 aircraft (doesn't include any 787s that will be added to this pile in the next few months) thus they would probably clear this backlog over the next 5 to 6 months.  What is uncertain is which aircraft (other than the aforementioned three aircraft) will be delivered first.  We do know that 31 787s between Everett and Charleston will need to be modified first but I don't know which one have already been modified or of the order in which they'll be modified.  We'll only know when these airplanes take to the sly for their first flight.

When everything is all said and done, it does look like that Boeing's gamble to keep up with the current full rate production of 5/month will pay off...just as long as they can deliver the backlog sitting in Washington and South Carolina.

Here's the FAA Press Release announcing the approval:

FAA Approves Boeing 787 Battery System Design Changes

For Immediate Release
April 19, 2013
Contact: Laura Brown
Phone: (202) 267-3883

---

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) today took the next step in returning the Boeing 787 to flight by approving Boeing's design for modifications to the 787 battery system. The changes are designed to address risks at the battery cell level, the battery level and the aircraft level.
Next week, the FAA will issue instructions to operators for making changes to the aircraft and will publish in the Federal Register the final directive that will allow the 787 to return to service with the battery system modifications. The directive will take effect upon publication. The FAA will require airlines that operate the 787 to install containment and venting systems for the main and auxiliary system batteries, and to replace the batteries and their chargers with modified components.
“Safety of the traveling public is our number one priority. These changes to the 787 battery will ensure the safety of the aircraft and its passengers,” said Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.
“A team of FAA certification specialists observed rigorous tests we required Boeing to perform and devoted weeks to reviewing detailed analysis of the design changes to reach this decision,” said FAA Administrator Michael Huerta.
To assure proper installation of the new design, the FAA will closely monitor modifications of the aircraft in the U.S. fleet. The FAA will stage teams of inspectors at the modification locations. Any return to service of the modified 787 will only take place after the FAA accepts the work.
As the certifying authority, the FAA will continue to support other authorities around the world as they finalize their own acceptance procedures.

Next here is Boeing's Press Release:

Boeing to Begin Modifying 787s as FAA Approves Battery Improvements

- Modifications to existing fleets to begin; deliveries to resume soon

- Boeing to provide customers support for return to service

EVERETT, Wash., April 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's approval of battery system improvements for the 787 Dreamliner by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) clears the way for Boeing (NYSE: BA) and its customers to install the approved modifications and will lead to a return to service and resumption of new production deliveries.
"FAA approval clears the way for us and the airlines to begin the process of returning the 787 to flight with continued confidence in the safety and reliability of this game-changing new airplane," said Boeing Chairman, President and CEO Jim McNerney. "The promise of the 787 and the benefits it provides to airlines and their passengers remain fully intact as we take this important step forward with our customers and program partners."
The FAA's action will permit the return to service of 787s in the United States upon installation of the improvements. For 787s based and modified outside the United States, local regulatory authorities provide the final approval on return to service.
Approval of the improved 787 battery system was granted by the FAA after the agency conducted an extensive review of certification tests.  The tests were designed to validate that individual components of the battery, as well as its integration with the charging system and a new enclosure, all performed as expected during normal operation and under failure conditions. Testing was conducted under the supervision of the FAA over a month-long period beginning in early March.
"The FAA set a high bar for our team and our solution," said McNerney. "We appreciate the diligence, expertise and professionalism of the FAA's technical team and the leadership of FAA Administrator Michael Huerta and Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood throughout this process.  Our shared commitment with global regulators and our customers to safe, efficient and reliable airplanes has helped make air travel the safest form of transportation in the world today."
Boeing, in collaboration with its supplier partners and in support of the investigations of the National Transportation Safety Board and the Japan Transport Safety Board, conducted extensive engineering analysis and testing to develop a thorough understanding of the factors that could have caused the 787's batteries to fail and overheat in two incidents last January.  The team spent more than 100,000 hours developing test plans, building test rigs, conducting tests and analyzing the results to ensure the proposed solutions met all requirements.
"Our team has worked tirelessly to develop a comprehensive solution that fully satisfies the FAA and its global counterparts, our customers and our own high standards for safety and reliability," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Ray Conner. "Through the skill and dedication of the Boeing team and our partners, we achieved that objective and made a great airplane even better."
Boeing also engaged a team of more than a dozen battery experts from across multiple industries, government, academia and consumer safety to review and validate the company's assumptions, findings, proposed solution and test plan.
The improved battery system includes design changes to both prevent and isolate a fault should it occur. In addition, improved production, operating and testing processes have been implemented. The new steel enclosure system is designed to keep any level of battery overheating from affecting the airplane or even being noticed by passengers.
"This is a comprehensive and permanent solution with multiple layers of protection," said Conner.  "The ultimate layer of protection is the new enclosure, which will ensure that even if a battery fails, there is no impact to the airplane and no possibility of fire. We have the right solution in hand, and we are ready to go.
"We are all very grateful to our customers for their patience during the past several months," said Conner. "We know it hasn't been easy on them to have their 787s out of service and their deliveries delayed. We look forward to helping them get back into service as quickly as possible."
Boeing has deployed teams to locations around the world to begin installing improved battery systems on 787s. Kits with the parts needed for the new battery systems are staged for shipment and new batteries also will be shipped immediately. Teams have been assigned to customer locations to install the new systems.  Airplanes will be modified in approximately the order they were delivered.
"The Boeing team is ready to help get our customers' 787s back in the air where they belong," said Conner.
Boeing will also begin installing the changes on new airplanes at the company's two 787 final-assembly plants, with deliveries expected to resume in the weeks ahead. Despite the disruption in deliveries that began in January, Boeing expects to complete all planned 2013 deliveries by the end of the year. Boeing further expects that the 787 battery issue will have no significant impact to its 2013 financial guidance.

 

Wall Street Journal: 787 battery re-certification approval to come Friday, April 19

In an article released this evening, the Wall Street Journal says the FAA will certify the redesign battery and battery containment system as safe for commercial use by tomorrow, April 19th.  This will allow Boeing to immediately begin work on retrofitting the 50 787s around the world with the new design and allow the airlines to resume regular passenger service as early as the end of this month. Anticipate that it will take Boeing about 6 weeks to retrofit all 50 airplanes while teams of technicians will do the same to 787s at Everett and Charleston.

Boeing resumed regular production testing today and I expect a slew of 787s to take to the skies on their B-1 flights starting as early as tomorrow.  Boeing has 34 787 in Charleston and Everett awaiting production flight tests and delivery. Deliveries can resume, I believe as early as the last week of April though May is a better bet.  Boeing will need to deliver about 8 787s a month to clear the backlog that has built up over the last three months.  This is doable but will be a challenge.

 

BREAKING: Boeing confirms resuming 787 production test flights

Boeing confirmed to me that they are resuming standard Boeing production flight testing under the approval of the FAA.  The production flights will be normal Boeing flights meant to validate the aircraft's systems.  There are no restrictions that the FAA has placed on these aircraft.  All airplanes that are to be production tested will have the new batteries and the containment system installed.  ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) for ANA was the first aircraft to fly today and fly with the new battery and containment system on a functional check flight.

We should see more and more 787s parked in Everett and Charleston to start conducting their standard B-1, B-2 and C-1, C-2 flights but these airplanes won't be delivered until the FAA has certified the batteries and the containment system for commercial use.

Source: Boeing anticipating FAA to recertify 787 around April 24th

A source in Ethiopia revealed that a team of 30 Boeing engineers, technicians and PR specialists landed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to prepare the 787s owned by Ethiopian for return to flight.  The Boeing team is doing some prep work on the aircraft prior to the FAA decision which, according to the source, is believed by Boeing will be handed down around April 24th. 

The Boeing team includes Rob Faye, worldwide sales director and Dennis Lucas, a Boeing technical director.  It is believed though not confirmed that Randy Tinseth along with Adam Morgan and executive with Boeing's International Communications will also be there but are still awaiting the FAA's decision.

The team will work on one aircraft at a time and should have Ethiopian's 4 787s ready to fly in about 3 to 4 weeks after the FAA approves the change.

Of course this date is not a firm date but a date that Boeing believes the FAA will announce its decision.

FAA says 787 decision to some "soon" and are re-examing ETOPS certification

FAA chief Mike Huerta, testified yesterday that the FA has all the documentation that Boeing has submitted to re-certify the 787 lithium ion batteries and that a decision will come soon but they won't be rushed into a decision.  He said that the FAA will approve it when "we are satisfied Boeing has shown the redesigned battery system meets FAA requirements."  Boeing is ready to go and start implementing the modifications once the FAA has signed off which may come as early as this week.  Several carriers (Qatar Airways and Ethiopian) have said that they plan to resume 787 revenue service as early as this month.  ANA and JAL are expecting a return to service next month and United expects to be flying again late in May. No word on when LOT Polish, LAN, or Air India will return to service though expect that by mid June they will all be flying the 787 again.

On fly in the ointment is the FAA's review of the 787's ETOPS 180 certification.  This is being done independent of the battery certification.  I'm not sure what the basis of the ETOPs review (other than the battery issue) is on.  If the basis of the review is solely on the battery issue, then I do expect that the FAA should re-affirm the ETOPS 180 certification as the battery containment system will add a level of safety to the airplane in the event of a thermal runaway in the battery such that it won't bring down the aircraft and should allow the aircraft enough time to divert to an airport.

It also seems to me that if Boeing wants to certify the 787 for ETOPs 330 they will need to run new certification flights for that purpose using the battery and the new containment system in different failure modes. Given that the 787-9 launch customer, Air New Zealand, requires ETOPs 330 when they take delivery, I expect that these tests will take place by the end of the year or very early in the 1st quarter of 2014.

Is there a chance that the FAA can restrict the 787s ability to fly ETOPS (either partially or fully)? Absolutely. Will they do it is another question but I am sure Boeing is in communication with them on this issue as well as ETOPs 330.

I still do expect that Boeing will resume deliveries by middle to late May if the approval is given soon (this week) but there probably are political considerations for the FAA before the approval is given. We'll see.  Scott Hamilton expects approval after the NTSB hearings on the 787 battery certification that is to take place on April 23-24.

 

787 battery re-certification looks to be getting closer

It appears that the FAA's re-certification of the lithium ion batteries is getting closer.  First, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said today that the approval will happen "soon" though the FAA isn't going to be rushed in its analysis of Boeing's data.

Another piece of news that indicates the decision is right over the horizon is an article from a local Ethiopian news website saying that Ethiopian's 787s will be the first airlines to return to service though I do suspect that this is more hopeful thinking as Boeing will focus on getting ANA's fleet back up in the air first. The article doesn't say when Ethiopian will resume flying though and it is up to each individual carrier when they will resume revenue service once their 787s are modified.

Nevertheless, it does give more of an indication of the trend in the belief that this grounding will very soon be over.

787 customers eyeing return to service; Qatar expecting to resume flying by end of April

Qatar Airways' chief, Akbar Al Baker, is not one to shy away from the media or make over exaggerated announcements but at the inauguration of Qatar's service between Doha and Chicago, he stated that Qatar fleet of 787s will be back in service well before May 31st which is when United plans to resume 787 operations.  Jon Ostrower of the Wall Street Journal tweeted that Qatar is planning to have the 4 of 5 787s returned to service by the end of April.  Whether this is realistic or not is another question.  Jon later tweeted Boeing is responding to the FAA request for additional information though it is unknown what they had requested.  It has been widely anticipated that the FAA would have additional questions.  Given that the month of April is 1/3 over it does seem far fetched that the FAA will issue their decision so that Qatar would have 4 787s ready by the end of the month.  I don't see the FAA decision coming down before April 15th at the earliest. However It is entirely possible for Qatar to have their 787s back in the air by mid May.  Again this is all dependent on when the FAA will issue their decision. It should be noted that several 787 operators are planning to resume operations within the next month and a half including ANA.

On the production front Boeing is still producing airplanes at about 5 per month though in the next month and a half the Charleston line will be increasing their rate to 2/month.  I believe that the Everett line will increase to 5/month during this same period. Boeing's guidance was an increase in rate from 5 to 7 around mid 2013.  This would mean the rate break would occur around early June. The rate increase makes it more imperative that Boeing gets the FAA approval for he battery fix.  As of today there are 31 787s (25 in Everett and 6 in Charleston) that ready for pre-flight or to continue the post production tests that had started prior to the grounding.  If the rate break is to occur in early June, Boeing will have to resume deliveries around the same time and deliver at a rate of 2 to 2.5 airplanes per week in order to clear the inventory of production aircraft sitting at both facilities over the 30 weeks starting in early June.  This is an attainable delivery rate if Boeing can resume production ground and flight tests by the first week of May.

 

787 Return to Service now in the hands of the FAA

On Friday April 5th Boeing conducted the one and only certification test flight on ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) for their proposed fix to the lithium ion battery issues that have bought worldwide 787 to a halt.  Boeing had already conducted the ground test of the battery containment system on ZA005 (LN 5, N787FT).  In that test the battery was intentionally short circuited to allow a thermal runway to occur thus testing the ability of the new containment system to prevent smoke, flame and electrolytes from escaping thus risking the aircraft and passengers.

The test flight which lasted about 2 hours is the final items that needed by the FAA in order for order for them to certify the battery fix.  In the next few days Boeing will turn over all the remaining data that is needed. The FAA and Boeing will have a continuous dialogue over the next few weeks and the FAA may even require more tests before giving its approval but the general consensus is that the FAA will give its approval to the fix and approve of Boeing's Service Bulletin & amend the emergency Airworthiness Directive it issued in mid January grounding the 787.  Boeing has teams in place to start implementing the fix once the FAA (and other international aviation regulators like Japan's JCAB and Europe's EASA) have approved. 

The fix will take 4 to 5 days to install on each aircraft though I think it's reasonable to assume that multiple aircraft will be worked on at the same time.  Assuming that Boeing has (according to reports in the media) 8 teams ready to implement the fix along with the associated hardware at the ready, it will take Boeing about 6 weeks to return all 50 delivered 787s to service.  If the approval is given by middle of April then it is reasonable to assume that the 50 787s that are grounded can resume regular revenue service by early June depending on the individual airline's readiness to do so.

So how long until deliveries begin? Boeing will have 30+ 787s ready for delivery but waiting for the battery fix to be installed. I don't have any information as to how many of these service ready 787s can be modified each week but I think it is reasonable to assume that Boeing can have up to 3 ready each week to continue the standard pre delivery ground and flight test regimen once the FAA has given its approval. I am also assuming that Boeing will start ground and flight tests from scratch given the new equipment that is being installed would also need to be tested out on each aircraft.  Thus I'm assuming about 5 weeks for all pre-delivery ground and flight tests to be conducted prior to delivery.  This would translate to roughly 6 weeks before Boeing resumes regular 787 deliveries.  This would mean that deliveries can resume as early as the beginning of June.  It still uncertain how many 787s Boeing can deliver this year until deliveries actually re-start and the rate of battery modifications are determined but at the moment they're maintaining their 787 delivery guidance at 60+.  It is still possible to reach that goal but it would mean that Boeing will have to undertake an aggressive rate of production testing on the 30+ 787s that are on the lines at Everett and Charleston.

An added complication are the NTSB hearings scheduled for the second half of April concerning the lithium ion battery technology as well as the FAA's certification of the 787's battery system along with Senate hearings into the FAA approval process for the 787.  While I don't expect any earth shattering news out of any of these three hearings pundits wondered aloud if these hearings will have any bearing on the timing of FAA approval, with some saying that the FAA won't give its approval until after the hearings are done. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood even said that the fix that Boeing has proposed appears to be good.  Whenever the FAA gives its decision, it does appear that Boeing in on the verge of overcoming yet another issue related to the Dreamliner.