Boeing announced through Randy Tinseth's Boeing Blogs that they have loaded the first aircraft to be produced at 10/month. This aircraft is ZA188 (LN 152) destined for Japan Airlines was loaded yesterday in 40-24 (surge line). I suspect that this aircraft will be delivered in January. Boeing had promised for a couple of years that the 787 production rate will hit 10/month by late 2013 and have achieved it a month and half early.
Boeing has been steadily increasing the production rate on the 787 through October and November. In Everett the rate is about 8/month while Boeing is building the 787s in Charleston at 2/month. Boeing should be loading a 787 in Everett every 4 days split between the main line in 40-26 and the surge line in 40-24.
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Friday, November 15, 2013
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Another correction, JAL took delivery of the 100th Dreamliner (seriously this time)
There has been plenty of confusion as to who received the 100th Dreamliner but thanks to Greg, an eagle eyed reader of this blog we might be able to finally declare who the winner is:
Japan Airlines received the 100th 787. It was ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J)
this aircraft was seen by Matt Cawby at the Everett Delivery Center on Nov. 5th and a Flightwaware alert popped up showing that this aircraft was to leave that evening for Tokyo. The aircraft never left and was ultimately towed back to the flightline at Everett.
Since then Hainan Airlines took delivery of a 787, ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) at Charleston and flew it to China so that left many assuming that this aircraft was number 100.
Then Greg found a posting on Boeing's New Airplane Flight tracker web site. Boeing has delivered 101 787 as of November 8, 2013. This can only mean that ZA175 was delivered as not other 787 except for ZA434 has been seen at the Everett Delivery Center or the Charleston Delivery Center. Since ZA175 was at the EDC on Sept. 5 and ZA434 showed up at the CDC on Nov. 8th it should follow that ZA175 was delivered before ZA434.
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Japan Airlines received the 100th 787. It was ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J)
this aircraft was seen by Matt Cawby at the Everett Delivery Center on Nov. 5th and a Flightwaware alert popped up showing that this aircraft was to leave that evening for Tokyo. The aircraft never left and was ultimately towed back to the flightline at Everett.
Since then Hainan Airlines took delivery of a 787, ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) at Charleston and flew it to China so that left many assuming that this aircraft was number 100.
Then Greg found a posting on Boeing's New Airplane Flight tracker web site. Boeing has delivered 101 787 as of November 8, 2013. This can only mean that ZA175 was delivered as not other 787 except for ZA434 has been seen at the Everett Delivery Center or the Charleston Delivery Center. Since ZA175 was at the EDC on Sept. 5 and ZA434 showed up at the CDC on Nov. 8th it should follow that ZA175 was delivered before ZA434.
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Monday, November 11, 2013
Second 787-9 takes flight, Boeing delivers 100th 787 (for real this time)
Boeing Photos
Ok so I have to backtrack a little bit. Last week ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J)for Japan
Airlines appeared at the Everett Delivery Center and later in the day
Flightaware.com showed a delivery flight planned for that aircraft to Tokyo. This was, I assumed, the 100th
delivery of a 787 to a customer and I reported it as such. However, the flight plan timed out and a
couple of days later the aircraft was towed back to a flightline stall. Now the aircraft may have been contractually delivered
but I am not sure. Right now it seems
that ZA434 for Hainan Airlines (LN 85, B-2730) looks to be the 100th
delivered 787.
Given the high level of interest in the 787 I would have
expected that Boeing would have made some comment about the delivery but as of
yet there hasn’t been any communication about it even after I’ve made an
inquiry about it. Boeing is being very
quiet about this which seems to suggest that there might be some sort of behind
the scenes issue with who is the actual recipient of 787 #100 or Boeing is
waiting to make a very big splash about it at some later date.
As far as production goes, Boeing is still making very good
progress in ramping up the rate in the factory.
November has been slow in terms of production testing after last month’s
flurry of flight test activity. There
are still 4 aircraft including the aforementioned ZA175 waiting to be delivered. Boeing has delivered 2 aircraft through the
first 10 days of this month though I still see Boeing able to deliver at least
6 more aircraft this month. They will
have to start moving planes out of the flightline and into customer hands if they’re
to increase the rate and avoid have a glut of 787s crowding the Everett and
Charleston ramps. This week will
probably be critical in terms of determining the progress in delivering these
Dreamliners. Boeing will need to get a
few (about 4) more aircraft up doing their B-1 as well as have the 6 airplanes
that have already started production testing flying their customer flights.
Last week ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT), the second 78-9 test
aircraft, flew for the first time in a 4 hour and 18 minute test flight. The following day, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX)
resumed test flights after spending a week at Everett. No reason was given for the 1 week layover
but I suspect it was to fine tune the aircraft and possibly change out some
flight test equipment. ZB021 (LN 139,
N789ZB) had its GEnx engines run for the first time and I suspect will join the
test flight program sometime around mid-December. In the meantime, Boeing is continuing
production work on the first 787-9.
ZB197 (LN 146) is destined for ANA and will be used for some of the
final testing activities that the FAA mandated to be done on a production standard
aircraft. I expect that this aircraft should roll out by late November but I
don’t expect that it will be needed for any test flights until February at the
earliest. I still expect that the first
787-9 should deliver to Air New Zealand around April, 2014.
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Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Boeing delivers 100th 787 to Japan Airlines
While I have no official confirmation nor any word from Boeing, it appears that the 100th 787 to be delivered went to Japan Airlines this afternoon. There was a flightplan just filed on Flightaware.com. The aircraft is ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) which is one of the early buiild 787s that had to go throughthe long process of change incorporation. So far I have not heard of any aircraft being delivered from Charleston as of yet. ZA175 is currently at the Everett Delivery Center.
Boeing has delivered 51 787s in 2013, and 100 aircraft since the start of deliveries in September 2011.
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Boeing has delivered 51 787s in 2013, and 100 aircraft since the start of deliveries in September 2011.
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Boeing delivers the 99th 787, number 100 right around the corner possibly going to United Airlines
Boeing delivered the ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) yesterday to Air
India marking the delivery of the 99th 787 built. The aircraft should be departing later today
but all eyes are on who will get number 100.
I do believe that United will take its next 787 this week thus I do
expect that they will take the 100th 787 to be delivered.
As I mentioned UAL should take it this week but it may come
as early as today. We’ll keep a watch
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Saturday, November 2, 2013
Boeing delivers 9 787s in October, up to 98 total deliveries
Boeing had delivered 9 787s in the month of October and all things considered that was a very good month. The production test flights in Everett was slowed down by a thick fog that hung around Everett for days and reduced visibility to much less than half a mile. Certainly not good conditions to fly. The delays caused by the weather had probably pushed back a few delivery dates to early November for a few Everett built 787s but also a factor was customer readiness to take these airplanes.
Of the notable airlines whose 787s are ready to be delivered to them are China Southern (2 aircraft), Hainan, and Air India. I do think that these aircraft along with one each for JAL and united will be delivered during the first week of November. There seems to have been a knock on effect of airplanes delivering a little bit later than planned. A number of 78s that were expected to be delivered by late September were delivered in early October. I expect there to be a similar occurrence this month with the 6 aircraft that have yet to be delivered.
Now that we are closing in on the end of the year, question turns to how many 787 will Boeing eventually deliver to its customers. As of the end of October Boeing has delivered 49 787s. This is 3 more than the number they delivered in 2012 and their target still remains above 60. They can reach that target by the end of November.
Here's how I think November and December will shake out in terms of 787 deliveries:
Air India - 2
ANA - 1
China Southern - 3
Hainan - 3
ILFC/Sky Blue Holdings - 1
ILFC/UAE Presidential Flight - 1
Japan Airlines - 2
Norwegian - 1
QANTAS/Jetstar - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
TUI Travel - 1
United Airlines - 1
This is a total of 19 aircraft that Boeing certainly can deliver within the next two months. This would bring the total 787s deliveries in 2013 to 68 and 117 overall. Boeing needs to start clearing out 787s both at Everett and North Charleston as the company prepares to increase the 787 production rate to 10/month in December.
At the same time Boeing also plans on getting the two remaining 787-9s into the flight test program. Boeing just rolled out the 3rd and final dedicated test flight aircraft, ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB). I expect that this aircraft should fly by late November - early December. We're still waiting for ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to fly and I suspect that this will occur sometime within the next one week. ZB001 flew back to Everett a few days ago. The reason is unknown but I am guessing that it can be so Boeing can change out some flight test equipment before resuming flight tests. To date, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) has accumulated over 150 flight test hours (I'm using Flightaware as my source). However, by the end of the year all three 787-9 flight test airframes should be deep into the flight test program and recording an increasing number of hours. I expect the first delivery of the 787-9 to Air New Zealand by about April of next year.
Finally, I'd like to leave you all with an idea you all might want to try in your spare time:
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Of the notable airlines whose 787s are ready to be delivered to them are China Southern (2 aircraft), Hainan, and Air India. I do think that these aircraft along with one each for JAL and united will be delivered during the first week of November. There seems to have been a knock on effect of airplanes delivering a little bit later than planned. A number of 78s that were expected to be delivered by late September were delivered in early October. I expect there to be a similar occurrence this month with the 6 aircraft that have yet to be delivered.
Now that we are closing in on the end of the year, question turns to how many 787 will Boeing eventually deliver to its customers. As of the end of October Boeing has delivered 49 787s. This is 3 more than the number they delivered in 2012 and their target still remains above 60. They can reach that target by the end of November.
Here's how I think November and December will shake out in terms of 787 deliveries:
Air India - 2
ANA - 1
China Southern - 3
Hainan - 3
ILFC/Sky Blue Holdings - 1
ILFC/UAE Presidential Flight - 1
Japan Airlines - 2
Norwegian - 1
QANTAS/Jetstar - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
TUI Travel - 1
United Airlines - 1
This is a total of 19 aircraft that Boeing certainly can deliver within the next two months. This would bring the total 787s deliveries in 2013 to 68 and 117 overall. Boeing needs to start clearing out 787s both at Everett and North Charleston as the company prepares to increase the 787 production rate to 10/month in December.
At the same time Boeing also plans on getting the two remaining 787-9s into the flight test program. Boeing just rolled out the 3rd and final dedicated test flight aircraft, ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB). I expect that this aircraft should fly by late November - early December. We're still waiting for ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to fly and I suspect that this will occur sometime within the next one week. ZB001 flew back to Everett a few days ago. The reason is unknown but I am guessing that it can be so Boeing can change out some flight test equipment before resuming flight tests. To date, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) has accumulated over 150 flight test hours (I'm using Flightaware as my source). However, by the end of the year all three 787-9 flight test airframes should be deep into the flight test program and recording an increasing number of hours. I expect the first delivery of the 787-9 to Air New Zealand by about April of next year.
Finally, I'd like to leave you all with an idea you all might want to try in your spare time:
To do list: go to a bank wearing a ski mask. Complete a normal transaction. Leave as if nothing happened.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) November 2, 2013
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Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Is Boeing holding back 787 deliveries?
I'm not the one to be into conspiracy theories but with several Dreamliners waiting on the flightline at both Charleston and Everett and seemingly done with their customer acceptance flights, I think Boeing is planning to deliver many of these aircraft at the same time so that the airline that will take the 100th delivery remains safely anonymous until the last moment.
Call me paranoid but it does seem that way. Boeing is flying quite a few test flights some within a day of the previous flight so that they can try and deliver them by October 31st.
Lastly, Matt Cawby tweeted that ZB001 (LN 133, N789FT) has its registration sticker attached thus indicating that first flight of this aircraft is imminent. I am guessing that it may take place by the end of this week.
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Call me paranoid but it does seem that way. Boeing is flying quite a few test flights some within a day of the previous flight so that they can try and deliver them by October 31st.
Lastly, Matt Cawby tweeted that ZB001 (LN 133, N789FT) has its registration sticker attached thus indicating that first flight of this aircraft is imminent. I am guessing that it may take place by the end of this week.
787-9 ZB002 now has registration N789FT
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) October 29, 2013
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Friday, October 25, 2013
Boeing starting to push 787 output rate higher; Fog lifts (for now) in Everett
According to the firing order for Everett, Boeing is planning to gradually increase the production rate at Everett using both the permanent and surge line. Boeing had placed 4 current in production 787s on the surge line in 40-24 leaving open the first two positions on the main final assembly line in 40-26 open. The last two positions are occupied with ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) and ZA560 (LN 141). This allows Boeing to increase the production rate without impacting any upstream or downstream airframes. Starting next week, Boeing will be loading a 787 every 4 to 6 days. In 40-26 the period between loadings looks to be about 10 days while in 40-24 the period between loadings appears to be about 10 to 11 days. This means that a 787 should be going through each line in about 40 days or less. When Boeing loads a 787 every 3.5 days in Everett (between both main and surge lines) they will be hitting a rate of about 8.5 787s per month which coupled with the 1.5/month from Charleston allows the 787 program to attain the 10/month. I think they'll still achieve this rate sometime in early to mid December.
The air around Everett is getting clearer, literally. Everett has been plagued by a constant bank of fog over the past few days which has severally limited test flight operations of the 787. It hasn't had an effect on flights from Boeing Field as ZB001 continues to fly from that airport.
Today alone Boeing sent up 5 production 787s from Everett and was planning to send a sixth one up on its first (B-1) flight. This airplane was ZA435 (LN 131, B-2731) and is slated for delivery to Hainan Airlines sometime next month. Boeing is appearing to make a huge last push to get at 5 to 8 deliveries done by end of the month and it does seem plausible that they can do it. If they were to do this then they can at least match the most 787 deliveries in one month if not surpass it. They would also deliver the 100th 787 to a customer. We'll know by next Friday if they were able to attain this.
In closing let me leave you with one last thought:
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The air around Everett is getting clearer, literally. Everett has been plagued by a constant bank of fog over the past few days which has severally limited test flight operations of the 787. It hasn't had an effect on flights from Boeing Field as ZB001 continues to fly from that airport.
Today alone Boeing sent up 5 production 787s from Everett and was planning to send a sixth one up on its first (B-1) flight. This airplane was ZA435 (LN 131, B-2731) and is slated for delivery to Hainan Airlines sometime next month. Boeing is appearing to make a huge last push to get at 5 to 8 deliveries done by end of the month and it does seem plausible that they can do it. If they were to do this then they can at least match the most 787 deliveries in one month if not surpass it. They would also deliver the 100th 787 to a customer. We'll know by next Friday if they were able to attain this.
In closing let me leave you with one last thought:
Always be yourself. Unless you can be Batman.. Then be Batman.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) October 25, 2013
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Wednesday, October 23, 2013
777X program gaining significant ground as Boeing continues to eye launch later this year
During the 3rd quarter earning conference call, Boeing CEO Jim McNerney reiterated Boeing's intention to launch the 777-8 and 777-9 later this year.
Current market expectations has Boeing's Board giving its formal blessing later this month (October) with the formal announcement coming at the Dubai Air Show which is scheduled to take place from November 17 to November 21st.
It is fully expected that Emirates, Qatar and Ethiad (the later is expected to increase its 787 order). Now according to Saj Ahmad, it is also expected the Cathay Pacific could place a significant 777X order either before or at the air show which may also be firmed at the show. Here's how I think 777X orders could shape up in the next month:
Lufthansa - 34 (already announced)
Cathay Pacific - 40 according to Saj Ahmad
Etihad - 30 plus another 30 787-9s
Qatar - 50 according to Saj
Emirates - 100 - 150
Current market expectations has Boeing's Board giving its formal blessing later this month (October) with the formal announcement coming at the Dubai Air Show which is scheduled to take place from November 17 to November 21st.
It is fully expected that Emirates, Qatar and Ethiad (the later is expected to increase its 787 order). Now according to Saj Ahmad, it is also expected the Cathay Pacific could place a significant 777X order either before or at the air show which may also be firmed at the show. Here's how I think 777X orders could shape up in the next month:
Lufthansa - 34 (already announced)
Cathay Pacific - 40 according to Saj Ahmad
Etihad - 30 plus another 30 787-9s
Qatar - 50 according to Saj
Emirates - 100 - 150
Boeing announces 787 production rate increases
In their 3rd quarter earnings announcement this morning, Boeing said they will increase the 787 production rate in 2016 from 10 to 12 aircraft per month eventually increasing to 14/month by the end of the decade. Even though the fact that they are increasing the production rate comes as no surprise, the announcement coming this early was. I was expecting an announcement of production increase next year.
Even though they haven't announced which site will benefit from the rate increase, I fully expect that Boeing South Carolina (Charleston) will see most if not all the increase in the rate of the 787. This rate increase is being timed with the need to produce 787-10 aircraft in sufficient quantities by 2017 which is when Boeing expect to start testing the double stretch of the 787. I can also see some interim production increases (to 11 in 2015 and to 13 in 2017-2018).
This announcement also will fuel the discussion as to where the 777X will be built. With JALs announcement that they will buy the A350, there is increasing outlook that Boeing will build more of the new large jet outside of Japan (even if ANA orders it). I believe that Boeing will build this airplane in Everett and assuming that the future 787 increases are built in Charleston, I can see a stronger case that the final assembly of the 777X will take place in Everett.
From Boeing's press release:
Even though they haven't announced which site will benefit from the rate increase, I fully expect that Boeing South Carolina (Charleston) will see most if not all the increase in the rate of the 787. This rate increase is being timed with the need to produce 787-10 aircraft in sufficient quantities by 2017 which is when Boeing expect to start testing the double stretch of the 787. I can also see some interim production increases (to 11 in 2015 and to 13 in 2017-2018).
This announcement also will fuel the discussion as to where the 777X will be built. With JALs announcement that they will buy the A350, there is increasing outlook that Boeing will build more of the new large jet outside of Japan (even if ANA orders it). I believe that Boeing will build this airplane in Everett and assuming that the future 787 increases are built in Charleston, I can see a stronger case that the final assembly of the 777X will take place in Everett.
From Boeing's press release:
During the quarter, the 787-9 completed first flight. With the successful launch of the 787-10 and continued strong demand for the 787 family of airplanes, the company intends to increase the 787 production rate from 10 to 12 per month in 2016, with plans to increase to 14 per month before the end of the decade.
Friday, October 18, 2013
787 test aircraft possibly moving to change incorporation to prepare for delivery
ZA005, Boeing first 787 powered by GE's GEnx-1B engines looks to be done with its career as a Boeing test aircraft testing PIP for the these engines. Matt Cawby tweeted yesterday these two tweets:
It appears that Boeing is preparing ZA005 for its second career with a paying customer, possibly a BBJ customer, by starting change incorporation at the EMC. It will have to have the orange test flight wiring removed and be bought up to certification specs which may take as long as a year or more. Its sister ship ZA006, also GE powered, has been in San Antonio, ostensibly going through change incorporation as well but has been there for well over a year. This may indicate that Boeing doesn't have a customer for it as of now and are going slow on the change incorporation.
ZB002 still on the flightline, has open panels and doesn't have the aircraft registration applied to it. This indicates that the aircraft is not yet ready to fly but I still anticipate that it will fly towards the end of next week.
Lastly, I'd like to leave you all with a the profound thought of the day:
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ZA5 N787FT just moved from the Everett flight line to the EMC pic.twitter.com/cC206BKMf7
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) October 17, 2013
@ureshs Looks like all the flight test equipment was removed while on the flight line
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) October 17, 2013
It appears that Boeing is preparing ZA005 for its second career with a paying customer, possibly a BBJ customer, by starting change incorporation at the EMC. It will have to have the orange test flight wiring removed and be bought up to certification specs which may take as long as a year or more. Its sister ship ZA006, also GE powered, has been in San Antonio, ostensibly going through change incorporation as well but has been there for well over a year. This may indicate that Boeing doesn't have a customer for it as of now and are going slow on the change incorporation.
ZB002 still on the flightline, has open panels and doesn't have the aircraft registration applied to it. This indicates that the aircraft is not yet ready to fly but I still anticipate that it will fly towards the end of next week.
Lastly, I'd like to leave you all with a the profound thought of the day:
If spiders ever realize that people are terrified of them, We’re fucked.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) October 18, 2013
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Wednesday, October 16, 2013
Boeing equals 2012 787 delivery total.
Mid way through October Boeing has delivered 46 787s which is the same number that they delivered in all of 2012. They've made great progress in bouncing back from the battery issues that grounded the world wide fleet and halted deliveries. Through Oct. 6th, Boeing has delivered 95 787s and looks to deliver the 100th 787 later this month.
Which one will get that honor is up in the air but it should still happen this month as there are several 787s that are in the middle or have completed their production testing.
Given we're at month end I think there is a little bit more clarity to the delivery schedule for the rest of this month. So far in October Boeing has delivered 6 787 including 4 from Charleston. Boeing, I believe, can deliver another 6 to 8 aircraft as follows:
ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) to Japan Airlines
ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) to Air India
ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) to China Southern Airlines
ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) to Hainan Airlines
ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) to China Southern Airlines
ZA562 (LN 122, N964AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA563 (LN 127, N965AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA446 (LN 130, V8-DLB) to Royal Brunei Airlines
* Dependent on US Govt. shutdown
While it looks good that the US government may reopen as early as tomorrow this could help with the deliveries to US-based buyers like ILFC. ZA562's deliver, it seems, has been delayed as the FAA's registration office in Wichita, KS has remained closed because of the budget debacle.
While Boeing has been pretty aggressive with conducting production flights for the first half of the month, things seems to have quieted down in the last couple of days indicating that Boeing may be making taking some corrective action on the airplanes that they have flown before conducting customer acceptance flights or are preparing for those customer flights which would get underway shortly. Additionally, Boeing is preparing to fly the second 787-9 (ZB002, LN 133, N789FT) within the next week though no date has been given. So far the 787-9 test program has accumulated just under 94 flight test hours.
Looking ahead, it seems that Boeing might be gearing up to increase 787 output per their plan. 10/month by the end of the year is still their goal and they seem to be on the verge of achieving it. Sources have told me that LN 158 will be the first airframe that will be produced at 10/month. This aircraft is slated to be built in Charleston. Boeing appears to be loading a 787 frame into position 1 every 14 to 16 days. Extrapolated this would mean that ZA244 (LN 158, VT-ANP) should load (and Boeing would start producing 10/month) around December 8th. Boeing is quickening the production rate which did slow down due to the 787-9 flight test aircraft assembly.
Lastly, with the government shutdown seemingly coming to an end, I'd like to leave you all with this:
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Given we're at month end I think there is a little bit more clarity to the delivery schedule for the rest of this month. So far in October Boeing has delivered 6 787 including 4 from Charleston. Boeing, I believe, can deliver another 6 to 8 aircraft as follows:
ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) to Japan Airlines
ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) to Air India
ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) to China Southern Airlines
ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) to Hainan Airlines
ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) to China Southern Airlines
ZA562 (LN 122, N964AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA563 (LN 127, N965AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA446 (LN 130, V8-DLB) to Royal Brunei Airlines
* Dependent on US Govt. shutdown
While it looks good that the US government may reopen as early as tomorrow this could help with the deliveries to US-based buyers like ILFC. ZA562's deliver, it seems, has been delayed as the FAA's registration office in Wichita, KS has remained closed because of the budget debacle.
While Boeing has been pretty aggressive with conducting production flights for the first half of the month, things seems to have quieted down in the last couple of days indicating that Boeing may be making taking some corrective action on the airplanes that they have flown before conducting customer acceptance flights or are preparing for those customer flights which would get underway shortly. Additionally, Boeing is preparing to fly the second 787-9 (ZB002, LN 133, N789FT) within the next week though no date has been given. So far the 787-9 test program has accumulated just under 94 flight test hours.
Looking ahead, it seems that Boeing might be gearing up to increase 787 output per their plan. 10/month by the end of the year is still their goal and they seem to be on the verge of achieving it. Sources have told me that LN 158 will be the first airframe that will be produced at 10/month. This aircraft is slated to be built in Charleston. Boeing appears to be loading a 787 frame into position 1 every 14 to 16 days. Extrapolated this would mean that ZA244 (LN 158, VT-ANP) should load (and Boeing would start producing 10/month) around December 8th. Boeing is quickening the production rate which did slow down due to the 787-9 flight test aircraft assembly.
Lastly, with the government shutdown seemingly coming to an end, I'd like to leave you all with this:
So... the good news is that you're getting the government back, and the bad news is that you're getting THAT government back.
— SarcasticRover (@SarcasticRover) October 16, 2013
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Friday, October 11, 2013
Boeing makes big push for 100 Dreamliner deliveries and a record number of 787 deliveries this month; 2nd 787-9 poised to join flight test effort
Boeing is conducting an aggressive effort to deliver a large number of 787s this month. Even before mid month Boeing has delivered 5 787s many of these a spillover from September when they were expected to be delivered. Through today, October 11th, 2013, Boeing has delivered 94 Dreamliners and will more than likely deliver it 100th 787 later this month. Right now it's way to early to speculate to whom the 100 delivered 787 will go to as it depends on the progress of production flights.
Undeniably Boeing has been making a big push to deliver as many 787s as possible. Today, alone there were 4 test flights including 2 B-1 flight. A third was scheduled but didn't fly. There are 3 Dreamliners that appear to be ready for delivery including the 6th for China Southern and the 2nd for Aeromexico. One factor that can hinder deliveries, at least to US owners, is the continuing government shutdown. While Boeing has the FAA inspectors back on the job at Charleston, the FAA still does not have its employees back in the office that process the aircraft registration and title transfers. Boeing said that they can be mailed in but there still may be some delays due to the shutdown. Deliveries to ILFC and United can be affected as well as to US based BBJ customers, for one of whom there is an aircraft about to start assembly. Given the progression here's how I see the remainder of October shaking out in terms of 787 deliveries:
China Southern - 2 (1 each from Charleston and Everett)
Japan Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (from Charleston)
Qatar Airways - 1 (from Charleston)
ILFC/Aeromexico - 2 (from Everett, dependent on government shutdown)
Royal Brunei Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
United Airlines - 1 (from Charleston, dependent on government shutdown)
Other deliveries that may take place this month:
Air India (from Everett)
Japan Airlines (from Charleston)
Deliveries from Charleston have resumed after almost 3 months which is very good news. Between September 30th and Oct. 9th, the Charleston facility delivered 4 787s and can deliver anywhere from 3 to 5 more this month which will help tremendously with the inventory there. What will be interesting to see is whether Boeing can bring down the number of production test flights required for the Charleston built 787s. The aircraft that were delivered recently needed many more flights than the ones built at Everett but this is probably attributable to Charleston still trying to ramp up the learning curve. As time goes on the build quality should improve. Everett wen through the same thing with some of the early delivered 787s.
Lastly the second 787-9 is getting close to making its first flight and joining its sister-ship at Boeing Field for test and certification activities. ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was just moved from the fuel dock at Everett to a stall space on the flightline. It should fly by Oct. 24th if it encounters no issues on pre-flight ground testing that should commence shortly. To put the schedule in perspective. It took ZB001 (LN 126, N787EX) 24 days from roll out to first flight. ZB002 rolled out on September 30th and applying the same metric to this aircraft should give a first flight date of around Oct. 24th. I do expect it to fly earlier than that as Boeing has improved knowledge from the ZB001's pre-flight. Again this all assumes that ZB002 doesn't have any issues in the run up to first flight. Another interesting stat is that ZB001 took 86 days in final assembly including painting and installation of test equipment. ZA002 improved that number by 6 days to a total of 80 days in final assembly. Boeing should be able to apply lessons learned from the first aircraft to get the 2nd aircraft up sooner. We'll know by the 24th.
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Undeniably Boeing has been making a big push to deliver as many 787s as possible. Today, alone there were 4 test flights including 2 B-1 flight. A third was scheduled but didn't fly. There are 3 Dreamliners that appear to be ready for delivery including the 6th for China Southern and the 2nd for Aeromexico. One factor that can hinder deliveries, at least to US owners, is the continuing government shutdown. While Boeing has the FAA inspectors back on the job at Charleston, the FAA still does not have its employees back in the office that process the aircraft registration and title transfers. Boeing said that they can be mailed in but there still may be some delays due to the shutdown. Deliveries to ILFC and United can be affected as well as to US based BBJ customers, for one of whom there is an aircraft about to start assembly. Given the progression here's how I see the remainder of October shaking out in terms of 787 deliveries:
China Southern - 2 (1 each from Charleston and Everett)
Japan Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (from Charleston)
Qatar Airways - 1 (from Charleston)
ILFC/Aeromexico - 2 (from Everett, dependent on government shutdown)
Royal Brunei Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
United Airlines - 1 (from Charleston, dependent on government shutdown)
Other deliveries that may take place this month:
Air India (from Everett)
Japan Airlines (from Charleston)
Deliveries from Charleston have resumed after almost 3 months which is very good news. Between September 30th and Oct. 9th, the Charleston facility delivered 4 787s and can deliver anywhere from 3 to 5 more this month which will help tremendously with the inventory there. What will be interesting to see is whether Boeing can bring down the number of production test flights required for the Charleston built 787s. The aircraft that were delivered recently needed many more flights than the ones built at Everett but this is probably attributable to Charleston still trying to ramp up the learning curve. As time goes on the build quality should improve. Everett wen through the same thing with some of the early delivered 787s.
Lastly the second 787-9 is getting close to making its first flight and joining its sister-ship at Boeing Field for test and certification activities. ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was just moved from the fuel dock at Everett to a stall space on the flightline. It should fly by Oct. 24th if it encounters no issues on pre-flight ground testing that should commence shortly. To put the schedule in perspective. It took ZB001 (LN 126, N787EX) 24 days from roll out to first flight. ZB002 rolled out on September 30th and applying the same metric to this aircraft should give a first flight date of around Oct. 24th. I do expect it to fly earlier than that as Boeing has improved knowledge from the ZB001's pre-flight. Again this all assumes that ZB002 doesn't have any issues in the run up to first flight. Another interesting stat is that ZB001 took 86 days in final assembly including painting and installation of test equipment. ZA002 improved that number by 6 days to a total of 80 days in final assembly. Boeing should be able to apply lessons learned from the first aircraft to get the 2nd aircraft up sooner. We'll know by the 24th.
Full 787 List
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Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Boeing delivers 5 787s in September, 787-9 finishes Initial Airworthiness Testing
There was high expectations that Boeing would have delivered quite a few 787s during September in an effort to improve quarterly results, however, Boeing managed only 5 deliveries during the past month. On a bright note, it seems that there can be a good number of aircraft that should be delivered in early October as their delivery dates were pushed to the current month. Boeing was very aggressive in production test flights in the effort to deliver many Dreamliners including the first aircraft to Jetstar (QANTAS) and Royal Brunei Airlines. Additionally there were several 787s in Charleston that were expected to be delivered in September including aircraft for Air India, China Southern, Hainan, Qatar and LAN. Hainan was delivered in September while China Southern was delivered on Oct. 1 and flew away on Oct. 2nd. Boeing had to fly a lot of test flights on the 5 airplanes that they were trying to deliver from Charleston. None of the aircraft for the above mentioned carriers flew fewer than 8 test flights with one 787 for LAN recording 13 flights. Two of these aircraft should deliver in early October with the Air India delivery on hold due to the usual financing issues with Air India.
Everett faired a little bit better but Boeing was planning to deliver the first 787s each to Jetstar and Royal Brunei. These airplanes are still at Everett and I believe they should deliver in the early part of October as well. All in all September was a very slow month for 787 deliveries and part of it may be due in part to customers being very picky during customer inspections (Qatar) as well as continued media reports about breakdown, cancellations and delays of the 787s in service with the customers. Amongst the most vocal airlines regarding the teething issues are Norwegian, LOT Polish and Qatar. However, it is a little disconcerting that aircraft built at Charleston had to fly more test flights (Boeing and customer) than those built at Everett though there were 787s that were assembled at Everett, especially the ones that were delivered in 2011 through mid 2012, that had to undertake numerous test flights. Undoubtedly, as the Charleston team improves efficiency and their experience the number of test flights and squawks will trend downward.
So what should we expect for October? This is difficult to say for several reasons: 1) Any issues at Charleston which currently has 8 787s waiting to be delivered and 9th that will be coming out soon. 2) Increase scrutiny by customers of their aircraft prior to deliveries which can lead to more customer flights 3) unpredictability of certain customers to take deliveries (Air India, China Southern, Hainan, and Qatar). There is a fourth issue which may come up and that is the current government shutdown that can affect 787 production particularly with the 787-9 but also on changes with the 787-8. Boeing has already spoken about this. With the US Government shutdown there aren't any FAA inspectors to carry certification work and that could have a significant impact on deliveries. I'll be watching this carefully. I do think that we can see 9 to 10 787 deliveries mainly because of the spillover of missed September deliveries into October.
Lastly, Boeing announced that the 787-9 has completed Initial Airworthiness Testing which clears the way for Boeing 's engineers to fly aboard the aircraft in order to collect data. Boeing has completed just under 50 hours of testing over the last two weeks. The second test flight aircraft, ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was rolled out around Sept. 30th. It spent 8- days in production vs. 86 for ZB001. ZB001 flew 24 days after being rolled out. If I apply the same metric to ZB002 then it should fly (barring any issues or unknown unknowns) by October 24th. I believe it can fly by mid October.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Everett faired a little bit better but Boeing was planning to deliver the first 787s each to Jetstar and Royal Brunei. These airplanes are still at Everett and I believe they should deliver in the early part of October as well. All in all September was a very slow month for 787 deliveries and part of it may be due in part to customers being very picky during customer inspections (Qatar) as well as continued media reports about breakdown, cancellations and delays of the 787s in service with the customers. Amongst the most vocal airlines regarding the teething issues are Norwegian, LOT Polish and Qatar. However, it is a little disconcerting that aircraft built at Charleston had to fly more test flights (Boeing and customer) than those built at Everett though there were 787s that were assembled at Everett, especially the ones that were delivered in 2011 through mid 2012, that had to undertake numerous test flights. Undoubtedly, as the Charleston team improves efficiency and their experience the number of test flights and squawks will trend downward.
So what should we expect for October? This is difficult to say for several reasons: 1) Any issues at Charleston which currently has 8 787s waiting to be delivered and 9th that will be coming out soon. 2) Increase scrutiny by customers of their aircraft prior to deliveries which can lead to more customer flights 3) unpredictability of certain customers to take deliveries (Air India, China Southern, Hainan, and Qatar). There is a fourth issue which may come up and that is the current government shutdown that can affect 787 production particularly with the 787-9 but also on changes with the 787-8. Boeing has already spoken about this. With the US Government shutdown there aren't any FAA inspectors to carry certification work and that could have a significant impact on deliveries. I'll be watching this carefully. I do think that we can see 9 to 10 787 deliveries mainly because of the spillover of missed September deliveries into October.
Lastly, Boeing announced that the 787-9 has completed Initial Airworthiness Testing which clears the way for Boeing 's engineers to fly aboard the aircraft in order to collect data. Boeing has completed just under 50 hours of testing over the last two weeks. The second test flight aircraft, ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was rolled out around Sept. 30th. It spent 8- days in production vs. 86 for ZB001. ZB001 flew 24 days after being rolled out. If I apply the same metric to ZB002 then it should fly (barring any issues or unknown unknowns) by October 24th. I believe it can fly by mid October.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Friday, September 20, 2013
787-9 flight testing picks up as production 787 flight test tempo increases ahead of planned deliveries
Boeing Photo
Exactly 196 weeks or 3 years and 9 months after the first flight of ZA001 on December 15, 2009, Boeing successfully flew the next member of the 787 family, the 787-9.
Just a few days after the first 787-9 took to the air, the aircraft is packing on flight hours just a few days after taking its maiden flight. Boeing is leveraging off the flight tests of ZB001's smaller sibling, the 787-8, to aggressively e 787-9's flight test envelope. Because the aircraft is a stretch of the 787-8 with the same wing and many of the same systems. There are differences beyond the stretch of the airframe and these will be tested but given that Boeing has a ton of data already on the aircraft from the 787-8 testing they can pursue a higher flight rate. It is still Boeing's plan to have a 6 month flight test/certification program.
There are still 2 more 787-9 in production. The next one, ZB002, is almost complete. ZB001 took 110 days from the start of final assembly on May 30 to first flight on September 17th. If ZB002 takes the same amount of time (110 days) and using the July 12th date as the start of final assembly, this aircraft can possibly fly around October 30th. However, I do expect that Boeing will apply lessons learned during the run up to ZB001's first flight to shorten that time. It is entirely possible that ZB002 can fly around mid October. Of course this is all dependent on finishing assembly activities and successful completion on ground testing. ZB002 should roll out sometime in the first week of October if not earlier.
ZB021, the test aircraft that will be equipped with GE engines started final assembly on August 21st should roll out to the flightline around mid November and should fly by around early to mid December.
In the meantime Boeing is increasing the tempo of production flights has increased in the last few days as Boeing attempts to deliver around 10-12 787s this month. So far 1 has been delivered. We should see a good number of deliveries next week including 787s from the Charleston facility.
Lastly, I am attempting to document the 787-9 flight test program on a spreadsheet which is linked below.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
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Tuesday, September 17, 2013
1st 787-9 flight scheduled for today, weather dependent
UPDATE: (11:02AM Local, 2:02PM ET): ZB001 in the air!
UPDATE: (11:00AM Local, 2:00PM ET): BOE001 Heavy Cleared for takeoff!!)
UPDATE: (10:54AM Local, 1:54PM ET): BOE540 (787-8) waiting to taking off
UPDATE: (10:52AM Local, 1:52PM ET): Chase Plane on its way to Everett from Boeing Field
UPDATE: (10:41AM Local, 1:41PM ET): Still holding short of Runway 34L
UPDATE: (10:36AM LOCAL, 1:36PM ET): Waiting for the Boeing chance aircraft coming up from Boeing Field. The takeoff runway will then be decided.
UPDATE: (10:27AM Local, 1:27PM ET): BOE001 Heavy Cleared to taxi runway 16R.
UPDATE: (10:22AM Local, 1:22PM ET): Engine Start!
UPDATE: (10:07AM Local, 1:07PM ET): Takeoff now expected at 10:30AM Local.
UPDATE: (10:33AM Local, 1:33PM ET): Taxiing down 16R/34L. Looks to takeoff on 34L.
UPDATE: (10:29AM Local, 1:29PM ET): Taxiing!
UPDATE: (9:45AM Local, 12:45PM ET): Runway inspections is on going. This is to prevent from and potential FOD damage to the aircraft during takeoff.
UPDATE: (9:30AM Local, 12:30PM ET): Crowds are gathering and Paine Tower is communicating with the crew on ZB001.
UPDATE: (9:20AM Local, 12:20PM ET):
UPDATE (9AM Local, 12 noon ET): Weather is looking good. About 6 miles visibility and ceilings look fine. About 1 hour until first flight.
Boeing's stretched 787-9 is on Flightaware for today's first flight:
787-9 First Flight
Boeing is planning a webcast of today's first flight which should leave at about 10AM local time and arrive at Boeig Field around 2:45PM local time.
787-9 First Flight Webcast
The flight will only take place if the weather cooperates. Boeing needs a minimum ceiling of 1500'.
If today's flight actually takes place it will come exactly 3 years and 9 months (or exactly 196 weeks) of ZA001's first flight on December 15, 2009. This was the first flight of the 787-8.
I'll continue to update this blog entry especially with regards to the weather at Everett.
UPDATE: (11:00AM Local, 2:00PM ET): BOE001 Heavy Cleared for takeoff!!)
UPDATE: (10:54AM Local, 1:54PM ET): BOE540 (787-8) waiting to taking off
UPDATE: (10:52AM Local, 1:52PM ET): Chase Plane on its way to Everett from Boeing Field
UPDATE: (10:41AM Local, 1:41PM ET): Still holding short of Runway 34L
UPDATE: (10:36AM LOCAL, 1:36PM ET): Waiting for the Boeing chance aircraft coming up from Boeing Field. The takeoff runway will then be decided.
UPDATE: (10:27AM Local, 1:27PM ET): BOE001 Heavy Cleared to taxi runway 16R.
UPDATE: (10:22AM Local, 1:22PM ET): Engine Start!
UPDATE: (10:07AM Local, 1:07PM ET): Takeoff now expected at 10:30AM Local.
UPDATE: (10:33AM Local, 1:33PM ET): Taxiing down 16R/34L. Looks to takeoff on 34L.
UPDATE: (10:29AM Local, 1:29PM ET): Taxiing!
UPDATE: (9:45AM Local, 12:45PM ET): Runway inspections is on going. This is to prevent from and potential FOD damage to the aircraft during takeoff.
UPDATE: (9:30AM Local, 12:30PM ET): Crowds are gathering and Paine Tower is communicating with the crew on ZB001.
UPDATE: (9:20AM Local, 12:20PM ET):
Crew of 2 on 787-9 N789EX doing a B1 preflight, the T-33 will be the chase plane today
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) September 17, 2013
UPDATE (9AM Local, 12 noon ET): Weather is looking good. About 6 miles visibility and ceilings look fine. About 1 hour until first flight.
Boeing's stretched 787-9 is on Flightaware for today's first flight:
787-9 First Flight
Boeing is planning a webcast of today's first flight which should leave at about 10AM local time and arrive at Boeig Field around 2:45PM local time.
787-9 First Flight Webcast
The flight will only take place if the weather cooperates. Boeing needs a minimum ceiling of 1500'.
If today's flight actually takes place it will come exactly 3 years and 9 months (or exactly 196 weeks) of ZA001's first flight on December 15, 2009. This was the first flight of the 787-8.
I'll continue to update this blog entry especially with regards to the weather at Everett.
Monday, September 16, 2013
First 787-9 start taxi tests in preparation for 1st flight
Boeing Photo
Boeing conducted taxi tests with ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) in preparation for its first flight which is expected tomorrow.
The taxi test were carried out on very rainy conditions and weather will play a role in the decision to carry out the test tomorrow or not. Taxi tests are the last set of tests prior tofirst flight of the aircraft. It is expected that ZB001 will land at Boeing Field where Boeing Test Flight team is based. The test and certifiation program is expected to last 6 to 9 months.
Currently the weather at Everett for tomorrow calls for a 20% chance of rain but low ceiling may postpone the test flight. Boeing requires at least a 1500 foot ceiling for any first flight including B-1 flights of in production models. I'll be keeping tabs on the first flight which I suspect will take place, weather permitting, at about 10AM PT (1PM ET).
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Friday, September 13, 2013
Boeing: First flight of 787-9 can come as early as Sept. 17th
Boeing just sent out a tweet saying that first flight can come as early as Sept. 17th.
787-9 first flight expected in coming days—as early as Tuesday 9/17. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) September 13, 2013
Schedule for 787-9 first flight is subject to change due to weather & other factors. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) September 13, 2013
Thursday, September 12, 2013
First flight of 1st 787-9 tentatively scheduled for Sept. 14th
Boeing Photo
Program sources have confirmed to me that Boeing has tentatively scheduled the first flight of ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) for September 14th. This is all dependent on successful conclusion of ground testing activities including the gauntlet testing.According to Guy Norris of Aviation Week, ZB001 is due to undergo gauntlet testing but shouldn't take as long as testing for ZA001, the first 787-8 before that aircraft's first flight in December 2009. It does appear that Boeing may have been waiting for certification of Trent 1000 package C engines which was just been given by EASA (no word yet on FAA certification).
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
787 firing updated
The 787 firing order was updated to reflect 787 production up to and including L/N 180. The customers aren't all that surprising but it does include the first 787-9 for Air New Zealand (ZB003, L/N 169) as well as three more 787-8s for Ethiopian. Ethiopian is leaving open the possibility of increasing their 787-8 fleet after the final 787s are delivered in 2014.
Here's a rundown of L/N 162 to L/N 180:
ANA - 1
Air Canada - 2
Air India - 1
Air New Zealand - 1
British Airways - 2
China Southern - 1
Ethiopian - 3
Hainan - 1
ILFC/Aeromexico - 1
ILFC/Norwegian - 1
Jetstar (QANTAS) - 2
Norwegian - 1
Qatar Airways - 1
Royal Brunei - 1
With Boeing planning to increasing the assembly at aircraft 158 (ZA244, L/N 159, VT-ANP) by the end of the year. This firing order should show aircraft that start final assembly through the end of February, 2014.
Boeing continues to prepare ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) for first flight. This should take place within the next 10 days. The static pressure cone has been attached according to Matt Cawby. Boeing has sent ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to get painted then will return to the assembly line where it will have more flight test equipment installed. ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) is well into final assembly. The first 2 aircraft will go to Air New Zealand after being refurbished though the final destination of the GE powered ZB021 is unknown. It is rumored that the Mexican Air Force will get this aircraft to transport that country's leader and other government officials.
Lastly, Boeing still has to resume production flight testing though some flights have occurred for Charleston built 787s. Stay tuned for this month's flight tests to start within a day or two.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
Here's a rundown of L/N 162 to L/N 180:
ANA - 1
Air Canada - 2
Air India - 1
Air New Zealand - 1
British Airways - 2
China Southern - 1
Ethiopian - 3
Hainan - 1
ILFC/Aeromexico - 1
ILFC/Norwegian - 1
Jetstar (QANTAS) - 2
Norwegian - 1
Qatar Airways - 1
Royal Brunei - 1
With Boeing planning to increasing the assembly at aircraft 158 (ZA244, L/N 159, VT-ANP) by the end of the year. This firing order should show aircraft that start final assembly through the end of February, 2014.
Boeing continues to prepare ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) for first flight. This should take place within the next 10 days. The static pressure cone has been attached according to Matt Cawby. Boeing has sent ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to get painted then will return to the assembly line where it will have more flight test equipment installed. ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) is well into final assembly. The first 2 aircraft will go to Air New Zealand after being refurbished though the final destination of the GE powered ZB021 is unknown. It is rumored that the Mexican Air Force will get this aircraft to transport that country's leader and other government officials.
Lastly, Boeing still has to resume production flight testing though some flights have occurred for Charleston built 787s. Stay tuned for this month's flight tests to start within a day or two.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
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