Boeing will be sending a flight test 787-9 to New Zealand and Australia late this week to conduct hot weather testing as well as for marketing purposes. The aircraft, ZB002 (LN 133, N787FT) will sport the marking of launch customer Air New Zealand when it leaves Boeing Field around January 2nd or 3rd. It is due to arrive in Auckland, NZ around January 4th in the late afternoon where it will remain for 2 days as Boeing and Air New Zealand conduct a marketing program for the larger version of the 787. It'll leave Auckland on Monday Jan. 6th at about 11 AM local time for Brisbane where it will clear customs and then proceed to Alice Springs, Australia landing at about 5 PM local time.
ZB002 will conduct hot weather testing at Alice Springs from January 7th to January 11th. It is unknown if the aircraft will return to the united States immediately after completion of the hot weather tests or if it conduct more market/testing activities will down under.
Testing on the larger 787 variant apparently is going well by all accounts. Boeing has completed the first production 787-9 and should start on the 2nd production aircraft sometime late next month. The fourth 787-9 will participate in F&R testing as well as other testing activities that need to be completed. There are plans to include a 5th 787-9 in the testing process but I'm not sure if it will be ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) which will be the 1st 787-9 delivered to a customer.
Stay tuned for my 7887 2013 year end wrap up coming soon.
Monday, December 30, 2013
Friday, December 20, 2013
Boeing makes final 2013 787 delivery push
Boeing has started making its final push to deliver as many commercial jets as possible before the and of the year. As far as the 787, Boeing has thus far delivered 6 aircraft in December, 16 for the 4th quarter, 60 for 2013 and 109 overall since deliveries began over 2 years ago. This includes ZA187 (LN 125, JA833J) for Japan Airlines which is contractually delivered but has not made its delivery flight for unknown reasons. It is expected to flyaway to Tokyo in the next few days.
There are still a number of 787s that are ready of delivery including a trio for China Southern Airlines. It's been a while since these airplanes have taken a flight but I believe the reason is so Boeing and China Southern can have a bit of a splash and conduct a triple delivery on one day prior to year end. Boeing will also deliver one more to QANTAS (Jetstar) which has had 4 flights (maybe one or two more needed) and will deliver the first 787 to be configured as a business jet to the UAE (via ILFC).
It stands to reason that Boeing can deliver 65 787s this year. Their guidance is over 60, thus they'll clearly meet their guidance.
As far as production is concerned, it looks as if Boeing is right now producing at about 9 aircraft/month. There was a hiccup due to a mishap (don't have details) on the main fuselage section for ZA388 (LN 154) for China Southern. that aircraft was loaded today but it did set back the production schedule, according to my calculations, by 18 days. ZA244 (LN 158) for Air India, leap-frogged over ZA388 and started final assembly before ZA388. ZA388 was originally supposed to start final assembly around November 19th. ZA244 was loaded into POS 1 on December 7...an 18 day gap between planned and actual loading of the fuselage sections and an approximately 1 month gap between the loading of ZA244 and ZA472 (LN 150) for Qatar Airways. Boeing Charleston is loading one aircraft approximately every 14 to 15 days or about 2/month. For the record, Jack Jones, VP and general manager of Boeing Charleston says that they are tracking to plan in terms of 787 production. Boeing is loading a 787 roughly every 4 days at Everett and that rate should get a little bit faster. Later on when Charleston is ready to go to 3/month, we should see the period between loadings go up slightly to about 1 airplane ever four and a quarter days.
One interesting thing to note is production quality of the 787 coming off the assembly lines. One way to measure this is to see how many test flights, on average, a Everett-built 787 makes before delivery and compare that to the number of test flights that a Charleston-built 787 makes. Taking out the 2 ferry flights that Boeing has to make to and from Ft. Worth for painting, I find that Charleston-built 787s fly an average of 6.25 flights before they are delivered while Everett-built 787s fly an average of 5.10 flights before delivery. Really just one flight more which in the grand scheme of things is not a whole lot.
A bit of programming note. I will post a 787 2013 year in review around the end of the month or early in January followed by a 2014 look ahead for the program.
Here are couple of links from Boeing's media day at Boeing Charleston:
Post and Courier photo gallery
Post and Courier Article
Charleston Business Journal Article
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
There are still a number of 787s that are ready of delivery including a trio for China Southern Airlines. It's been a while since these airplanes have taken a flight but I believe the reason is so Boeing and China Southern can have a bit of a splash and conduct a triple delivery on one day prior to year end. Boeing will also deliver one more to QANTAS (Jetstar) which has had 4 flights (maybe one or two more needed) and will deliver the first 787 to be configured as a business jet to the UAE (via ILFC).
It stands to reason that Boeing can deliver 65 787s this year. Their guidance is over 60, thus they'll clearly meet their guidance.
As far as production is concerned, it looks as if Boeing is right now producing at about 9 aircraft/month. There was a hiccup due to a mishap (don't have details) on the main fuselage section for ZA388 (LN 154) for China Southern. that aircraft was loaded today but it did set back the production schedule, according to my calculations, by 18 days. ZA244 (LN 158) for Air India, leap-frogged over ZA388 and started final assembly before ZA388. ZA388 was originally supposed to start final assembly around November 19th. ZA244 was loaded into POS 1 on December 7...an 18 day gap between planned and actual loading of the fuselage sections and an approximately 1 month gap between the loading of ZA244 and ZA472 (LN 150) for Qatar Airways. Boeing Charleston is loading one aircraft approximately every 14 to 15 days or about 2/month. For the record, Jack Jones, VP and general manager of Boeing Charleston says that they are tracking to plan in terms of 787 production. Boeing is loading a 787 roughly every 4 days at Everett and that rate should get a little bit faster. Later on when Charleston is ready to go to 3/month, we should see the period between loadings go up slightly to about 1 airplane ever four and a quarter days.
One interesting thing to note is production quality of the 787 coming off the assembly lines. One way to measure this is to see how many test flights, on average, a Everett-built 787 makes before delivery and compare that to the number of test flights that a Charleston-built 787 makes. Taking out the 2 ferry flights that Boeing has to make to and from Ft. Worth for painting, I find that Charleston-built 787s fly an average of 6.25 flights before they are delivered while Everett-built 787s fly an average of 5.10 flights before delivery. Really just one flight more which in the grand scheme of things is not a whole lot.
A bit of programming note. I will post a 787 2013 year in review around the end of the month or early in January followed by a 2014 look ahead for the program.
Here are couple of links from Boeing's media day at Boeing Charleston:
Post and Courier photo gallery
Post and Courier Article
Charleston Business Journal Article
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Mishap with L/N 154 mid body fuselage section forces Boeing to re-shuffle final assembly order at Charleston
According to sources, a mishap while assembling the mid body fuselage for ZA388 (L/N 154) for China Southern Airlines forced Boeing to re-shuffle the firing order at Boeing Charleston. Details are unknown but the mishap, which took place in building 88-20, caused extensive damage to the mid body fuselage section. The damage was severe enough that Boeing had to pull manufacturing techs from the final assembly line to help with the re-work with many technicians putting in overtime to get this fuselage section completed. This airplane was scheduled to start final assembly during the 3rd week of November but it was pushed back to the first week of December. Boeing, however, was unable to complete the re-work in time and forced the re-shuffling of the final assembly order.
Currently, ZA 244 (L/N 158, VT-ANP) for Air India is loaded in position 1 in 88-30 while the re-work in 88-20 continues and is expected to be completed shortly.
After inspection and review of all the re-work on mid body for L/N 154, it should enter final assembly later this month.
Boeing integrates different fuselage sections built in Japan and Italy into one large main fuselage section in the 88-20 building.
This incident also has played havoc with Boeing's 787 final assembly schedule for Charleston as the final assembly of follow 787 in Charleston had to be pushed back. Subsequently, Boeing MTs in Charleston may have to put in overtime in order to make up the lost time and get the schedule back on track.
Lastly, Boeing did fly a 787 out of Charleston to be painted. While Boeing regularly does this, the difference was the aircraft was flown to Portland, OR where the company does have paint facilities and not to Ft. Worth. It was pointed out by a reader that this may be due to the severe winter weather being experienced in Texas. Boeing has a contract with Leading Edge Completions of Ft. Worth, Tx. to paint all Charleston built 787s. There still is one 787 (ZA469, L/N 129, A7-BCH) for Qatar Airways at Leading Edge which flew there three weeks ago. Either the weather has delayed its return or there was some issue with the paint job that Qatar objected to or there was technical issue with the aircraft itself.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Currently, ZA 244 (L/N 158, VT-ANP) for Air India is loaded in position 1 in 88-30 while the re-work in 88-20 continues and is expected to be completed shortly.
After inspection and review of all the re-work on mid body for L/N 154, it should enter final assembly later this month.
Boeing integrates different fuselage sections built in Japan and Italy into one large main fuselage section in the 88-20 building.
This incident also has played havoc with Boeing's 787 final assembly schedule for Charleston as the final assembly of follow 787 in Charleston had to be pushed back. Subsequently, Boeing MTs in Charleston may have to put in overtime in order to make up the lost time and get the schedule back on track.
Lastly, Boeing did fly a 787 out of Charleston to be painted. While Boeing regularly does this, the difference was the aircraft was flown to Portland, OR where the company does have paint facilities and not to Ft. Worth. It was pointed out by a reader that this may be due to the severe winter weather being experienced in Texas. Boeing has a contract with Leading Edge Completions of Ft. Worth, Tx. to paint all Charleston built 787s. There still is one 787 (ZA469, L/N 129, A7-BCH) for Qatar Airways at Leading Edge which flew there three weeks ago. Either the weather has delayed its return or there was some issue with the paint job that Qatar objected to or there was technical issue with the aircraft itself.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Boeing delivers an anemic 5 787s in November.
So you know how I said that I thought Boeing can deliver 10 to 12 787s last month...boy I didn't even come close. Instead they delivered an anemic 5 aircraft last month despite all the activity with many of the aircraft that are still parked in Everett and Charleston. Boeing has maintained that they will deliver more than 60 787s this year an though the expectations was for a number closer to 68 tor 69 Boeing will still claim that they will have hit their target if all they deliver is 61 in 2013. They would have met their guidance though I think it would have been a disappointment.
That said, I still do believe they can deliver 64 airplanes this year. Thus far, Boeing has delivered 56 aircraft including 2 in December. They have the potential to deliver 8 more aircraft even though they can deliver just 5 more and meet their guidance.
Lately Boeing has been running a few test flights on two frames built in Charleston: ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) for China Southern Airlines and ZA187 (LN 125, JA833J) for Japan Airlines. I believe that these are final customer flights meant to wring out any further squawks that customer reps have found. These airplanes should deliver soon but along with those I do expect further deliveries to Hainan, QANTAS (Jetstar) and the first 787 business jet to the UAE Presidential Flight.
Here's my list of expected 787 deliveries in December:
China Southern - 2 aircraft - ZA386 and ZA381
Hainan Airlines - 2 aircraft - ZA432 and ZA435
Japan Airlines - 1 aircraft - ZA187
QANTAS (Jetstar) - 2 aircraft - ZA216 and ZA217
UAE Presidential Flight (leased from ILFC) - 1 aircraft - ZA560
787-9
787-9 seems to be making fairly good progress and the flight test program is slowly coming up on three full months of flight testing. It is expected that the flight test/certification program will continue for another 3 to 4 months and first delivery to Air New Zealand should occur around July 2014. The first production 787-9 (ZB197) was rolled out of 40-26 on November 20th and placed inside the Everett Modification Center (EMC). This aircraft will deliver to ANA probably later in the summer. The second production aircraft and the first to deliver to the launch customer is ZB003 is still a couple months away from starting final assembly but both these airplanes will be used for F & R (functionality and reliability) testing as well as other FAA mandated tests which needs to be completed on a production standard aircraft. The three flight test aircraft will be refurbished with 2 going to Air New Zealand and the 3rd (GE-powered) 787-9 flight test aircraft is rumored to be going to Japan Airlines.
Lastly, two 787 that were most recently rolled out the final assembly building in Everett were taken not to the flightline but to the EMC. There was confusion related to this and many speculated that it is due to some "issues" that the 787 might be experiencing though nothing has come up that would warrant that kind of speculation. The two aircraft are ZA586 which is another ILFC leased business jet and ZB197, the aforementioned 787-9 for ANA that will be used for testing. First ZA586 is probably there to get some specialized work down related to its cabin installation after delivery. Nothing unusual there. ZB197 is not needed for another couple months and will probably have some minimal flight test equipment installed. Either way I don't think it's a sign of anything amiss in the 787 program.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
That said, I still do believe they can deliver 64 airplanes this year. Thus far, Boeing has delivered 56 aircraft including 2 in December. They have the potential to deliver 8 more aircraft even though they can deliver just 5 more and meet their guidance.
Lately Boeing has been running a few test flights on two frames built in Charleston: ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) for China Southern Airlines and ZA187 (LN 125, JA833J) for Japan Airlines. I believe that these are final customer flights meant to wring out any further squawks that customer reps have found. These airplanes should deliver soon but along with those I do expect further deliveries to Hainan, QANTAS (Jetstar) and the first 787 business jet to the UAE Presidential Flight.
Here's my list of expected 787 deliveries in December:
China Southern - 2 aircraft - ZA386 and ZA381
Hainan Airlines - 2 aircraft - ZA432 and ZA435
Japan Airlines - 1 aircraft - ZA187
QANTAS (Jetstar) - 2 aircraft - ZA216 and ZA217
UAE Presidential Flight (leased from ILFC) - 1 aircraft - ZA560
787-9
787-9 seems to be making fairly good progress and the flight test program is slowly coming up on three full months of flight testing. It is expected that the flight test/certification program will continue for another 3 to 4 months and first delivery to Air New Zealand should occur around July 2014. The first production 787-9 (ZB197) was rolled out of 40-26 on November 20th and placed inside the Everett Modification Center (EMC). This aircraft will deliver to ANA probably later in the summer. The second production aircraft and the first to deliver to the launch customer is ZB003 is still a couple months away from starting final assembly but both these airplanes will be used for F & R (functionality and reliability) testing as well as other FAA mandated tests which needs to be completed on a production standard aircraft. The three flight test aircraft will be refurbished with 2 going to Air New Zealand and the 3rd (GE-powered) 787-9 flight test aircraft is rumored to be going to Japan Airlines.
Lastly, two 787 that were most recently rolled out the final assembly building in Everett were taken not to the flightline but to the EMC. There was confusion related to this and many speculated that it is due to some "issues" that the 787 might be experiencing though nothing has come up that would warrant that kind of speculation. The two aircraft are ZA586 which is another ILFC leased business jet and ZB197, the aforementioned 787-9 for ANA that will be used for testing. First ZA586 is probably there to get some specialized work down related to its cabin installation after delivery. Nothing unusual there. ZB197 is not needed for another couple months and will probably have some minimal flight test equipment installed. Either way I don't think it's a sign of anything amiss in the 787 program.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Happy Thanksgiving!!
I want to wish all my followers a very Happy Thanksgiving. Thank you all for your support, kind words, and information!
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Boeing increases 787 flight tempo to make a push for November month end deliveries
This past weekend, Boeing flew a number of 787s in a push to deliver them by the end of the month which will be shortened by the Thanksgiving Holiday. Boeing had to fly a number of B flights as well as functional check flights (FCF) on several aircraft before proceeding with customer test flights. The increased temp in the last three days indicated that Boeing wants to deliver these airplanes relatively soon. Several flights were performed on aircraft destined for Hainan (2), Jetairfly (TUI), Air India, and Norwegian Air Shuttle. On Friday, Boeing performed test flights on two 787s for China Southern. I don't think these two are ready for delivery and may require more test flights this week. Boeing can still deliver 787s for the first 3 days of this week and on Friday after Thanksgiving Here's the ones that I think should deliver this week:
Norwegian (ZA650, LN 136, EI-LNC)
Japan Airlines (ZA187, LN 125, JA833J)
TUI (Jetairfly) (ZA327, LN 137, OO-JDL)
Hainan Airlines - 2 - (ZA432, LN 79, B-2729) and (ZA435, LN 131, B-2731)
China Southern Airlines - 2 - (ZA381, LN 36, B-2726) and (ZA386, LN 104, B-2737)
All of these airplanes have flown a comparable number of test flights compared to those previously delivered to the same airline. If these airplanes are not delivered this week then more than likely the delivery will be made next week. If Boeing can deliver even 5 of these airplanes this week, it will be a very good month for them delivery wise.
Since Boeing has increased the production rate to 10/month, they're under increasing pressure to move airplanes off the flightlines and into customer hands lest the production 787s start to crowd the Everett and Charleston tarmac again.
For next month I don't see it being much of a stretch for Boeing to deliver 10 to 11 787s in a push to pad the year end numbers. During the next 36 days (between now and year end) I can see Boeing pushing out 2 more 787s from Charleston and 6 more from Everett (including one that will pull out by the end of November). Most of these will be delivered in January. At Everett, ZA188 (LN 152) will be the last aircraft to go to the flightline this year to prepare for delivery. At Charleston ZA294 (LN 145, N26910) will be the last one to be pulled out of 88-30. Of course, Boeing may surprise us and also pull out ZA564 (LN 155) and ZA447 (LN 156) for a total of 10 787s in December.
My final number for 787 deliveries for 2013 is 66 plus or minus 2.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Norwegian (ZA650, LN 136, EI-LNC)
Japan Airlines (ZA187, LN 125, JA833J)
TUI (Jetairfly) (ZA327, LN 137, OO-JDL)
Hainan Airlines - 2 - (ZA432, LN 79, B-2729) and (ZA435, LN 131, B-2731)
China Southern Airlines - 2 - (ZA381, LN 36, B-2726) and (ZA386, LN 104, B-2737)
All of these airplanes have flown a comparable number of test flights compared to those previously delivered to the same airline. If these airplanes are not delivered this week then more than likely the delivery will be made next week. If Boeing can deliver even 5 of these airplanes this week, it will be a very good month for them delivery wise.
Since Boeing has increased the production rate to 10/month, they're under increasing pressure to move airplanes off the flightlines and into customer hands lest the production 787s start to crowd the Everett and Charleston tarmac again.
For next month I don't see it being much of a stretch for Boeing to deliver 10 to 11 787s in a push to pad the year end numbers. During the next 36 days (between now and year end) I can see Boeing pushing out 2 more 787s from Charleston and 6 more from Everett (including one that will pull out by the end of November). Most of these will be delivered in January. At Everett, ZA188 (LN 152) will be the last aircraft to go to the flightline this year to prepare for delivery. At Charleston ZA294 (LN 145, N26910) will be the last one to be pulled out of 88-30. Of course, Boeing may surprise us and also pull out ZA564 (LN 155) and ZA447 (LN 156) for a total of 10 787s in December.
My final number for 787 deliveries for 2013 is 66 plus or minus 2.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Boeing Charleston workers being unfairly criticized for slow deliveries
Boeing has reached its 2013 goal of assembling the 787s at a
rate of 10 per month which is split between Everett and Charleston 8 to 2. Guidance given by Boeing last year indicated
that when they have reached this rate that the production would be split 7 to
3. It was a surprise to everyone when it
was revealed by Charleston based Boeing executives a few months ago that
Charleston rate is at 1.5 and that they wouldn’t reach the 3 per month rate
until sometime in the first quarter of 2014.
People started to question why that was and many observers claimed that it was because the skill set and experience of manufacturing
technicians (MT) at Charleston were not at the level of those at Everett. Certainly the new MTs at Charleston had a
learning curve to climb but can they be blamed for the lower rate of output at
Boeing Charleston?
All things being equal the MTs have the same basic skill set
as those at Everett. Where everything is not equal is the amount of experience
the Charleston MTs have vs. those in Everett.
Certainly with time the Charleston MTs will be just as skillful at putting together the 787s as those
in Everett.
For one thing Charleston only works two shifts on one assembly line while Everett
work three full shifts on two lines. Additionally
Boeing is limiting the amount of overtime that the Charleston MTs work while
there isn’t any known restrictions to the Everett workforce.
They also have very
demanding customers who are observing every facet of assembly of their aircraft
like Qatar Airways. To top it all off, there are about 3 to 5
QT’s (Quality Technicians) to sign off on the work that was done per the FAA’s
PC-700 production certificate. MT’s have
to wait sometimes up to 2 hours for a QT to inspect and sign off on the work
that was performed. Sometimes the Charleston workers have
to hunt, scrounge for or have one of the shop workers fashion the appropriate tool
in order to get a particular job completed to spec and to customer
satisfaction.
In time, the Charleston line will be producing and
delivering the three aircraft per month that is expected and I don’t doubt that
when Boeing goes to 14 per month, the additional 4 airplanes will be coming
from Charleston. However I feel that people are unjustly criticizing the SC
plant and in particular, are being unfair to the techs that are building the
787s.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Boeing flies third and final 787-9 test aircraft as they move to quicken the pace of production test flights.
BOE 789 (ZB021) taking off from Paine Airport with T-33 chase plane in tow
Boeing 3rd and final 787-9 flight test aircraft powered by GE's GEnx-1B engines took off on its first flight this afternoon after a few hours delay. Boeing does plan on using 2 production standard 787-9 for testing and other certification activities including functionality and reliability testing. The first aircraft, ZB197 (LN 147) is still in final assembly but should emerge by the end of this month. The other aircraft maybe ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) which would be the first 787-9 to deliver to launch customer Air New Zealand.
Boeing Photo
Here's Boeing's Press Release on ZB021's first flight:
Boeing Flies Third 787-9 Dreamliner
- First GEnx-powered 787-9 flight
- Final dedicated flight-test airplane flies some two months from inaugural 787-9 flight
EVERETT, Wash., Nov. 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Today Boeing (NYSE: BA) flew the third 787-9 Dreamliner, the first to be powered by General Electric GEnx engines. The third of three 787-9s dedicated to the test effort, ZB021 joined the fleet some two months from the inaugural flight of the first 787-9.
ZB021 took off from Paine Field in Everett, Wash., at 12:15 p.m. local time and landed 2 hours and 44 minutes later at Seattle's Boeing Field. Boeing will use ZB021 to test engine performance as well as airplane handling characteristics such as low-speed performance and braking.
The 787-9 test program continues to make great progress. The fleet flies regularly, with the second airplane now in Florida for climatic testing, and has accumulated more than 180 flight hours and more than 60 flights. In addition to the three dedicated airplanes, Boeing also will conduct some testing on two production airplanes, the first of which is in final assembly in Everett. 787-10 development also is on plan.
Boeing is on track to deliver the 787-9 to launch customer Air New Zealand in mid-2014. 26 customers have ordered 396 787-9s, accounting for approximately 40 percent of all 787 orders.
In the meantime, Boeing, it seems in aggressively picking up the production testing pace now that they have increased 787 production to 10/month. Starting now they will have to deliver 787s at a quicker pace. Already we've seen Boeing fly 787s on their B-1 flights less than one month after they have been rolled out of the factory. I believe we'll see that time span get shorter. Of the 16 airplanes that have completed assembly and that are out on the flightline, 5 have yet to fly and 2 of those are in the paint hangar in Everett. I believe Boeing can deliver 4 to 6 more 787s by the end of this month.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Sunday, November 17, 2013
Boeing makes a huge widebody splash at Dubai 2013; 777X launched, 787-10 gets more orders
Boeing Rendering of the 777-8X and 777-9X
Boeing made good on expectations of a huge splash of orders at Dubai 2013 today by booking 259 orders and commitments for the 777X part 2 of Boeing's two prong strategy against Airbus' A350.
The 777X is meant to directly challenge the A350-1000 (Boeing says the 777-8X is a direct challenger to the A350-1000) and any potential stretch of this aircraft to over 400 seats. Emirates came in big with an order for 115 777-9X and 35 777-8X, the later is really an extended range version of the 777-300ER. Etihad ordered 17 777-9X and 8 777-8X while Qatar signed an LoI for 50 777-9X. What is unknown at this time is weather the Etihad and Emirates orders are firm or not.
Additionally Etihad ordered the 787-10 taking orders for the type to 120 and total orders for the 787 family to 1,012. It does seem that this order may be firm. Along with the 41 787-9s on order, Etihad is on track to be the largest airline customer of the 787. ILFC is the largest 787 customer with 74 airplanes on order with 5 already delivered.
Boeing wasn't done as FlyDubai also went big and ordered 100 737-8 MAX and 11 737-800. Overall a huge day for Boeing and I suspect that it's not over for them. I expect that Boeing will more orders to announce from non Gulf carriers and may include Cathay Pacific as another customer for the 777X.
Airbus tried to make a splash but really came up with another yawn order of 50 A380 for Emirates. The A380 has a large exposure to just one carrier and truly doesn't bode well for the aircraft as it has unable to penetrate other airlines and diversify its customer base. The re-sale market for this aircraft is extremely limited.
After Day 1 at Dubai 2013 here's the scoreboard:
Airbus
Emirates - 50 x A380 (yawn)
Etihad - 40 x A350-900, 10 x A350-1000, 10 x A320 NEO, 26 x A321 NEO + 30 options on A350 and A320/A321 NEO
Qatar - 5 x A330-200F (8 options)
Boeing
Emirates - 35 x 777-8X, 115 x 777-9X + 50 options
Etihad - 8 x 777-8X, 17 x 777-9X, 30 x 787-10, 1 x 777F + 12 x 777X options/purchase rights, 12 x 787-10 options/purchase rights, 2 x 777F options/purchase rights
FlyDubai - 11 x 737-800, 100 x 737-8 MAX
Lufthansa - 34 x 777-9X
Qatar - 50 x 777-9X (LoI)
Friday, November 15, 2013
Breaking: Boeing announces start of 10/month 787 production rate
Boeing announced through Randy Tinseth's Boeing Blogs that they have loaded the first aircraft to be produced at 10/month. This aircraft is ZA188 (LN 152) destined for Japan Airlines was loaded yesterday in 40-24 (surge line). I suspect that this aircraft will be delivered in January. Boeing had promised for a couple of years that the 787 production rate will hit 10/month by late 2013 and have achieved it a month and half early.
Boeing has been steadily increasing the production rate on the 787 through October and November. In Everett the rate is about 8/month while Boeing is building the 787s in Charleston at 2/month. Boeing should be loading a 787 in Everett every 4 days split between the main line in 40-26 and the surge line in 40-24.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Boeing has been steadily increasing the production rate on the 787 through October and November. In Everett the rate is about 8/month while Boeing is building the 787s in Charleston at 2/month. Boeing should be loading a 787 in Everett every 4 days split between the main line in 40-26 and the surge line in 40-24.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Another correction, JAL took delivery of the 100th Dreamliner (seriously this time)
There has been plenty of confusion as to who received the 100th Dreamliner but thanks to Greg, an eagle eyed reader of this blog we might be able to finally declare who the winner is:
Japan Airlines received the 100th 787. It was ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J)
this aircraft was seen by Matt Cawby at the Everett Delivery Center on Nov. 5th and a Flightwaware alert popped up showing that this aircraft was to leave that evening for Tokyo. The aircraft never left and was ultimately towed back to the flightline at Everett.
Since then Hainan Airlines took delivery of a 787, ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) at Charleston and flew it to China so that left many assuming that this aircraft was number 100.
Then Greg found a posting on Boeing's New Airplane Flight tracker web site. Boeing has delivered 101 787 as of November 8, 2013. This can only mean that ZA175 was delivered as not other 787 except for ZA434 has been seen at the Everett Delivery Center or the Charleston Delivery Center. Since ZA175 was at the EDC on Sept. 5 and ZA434 showed up at the CDC on Nov. 8th it should follow that ZA175 was delivered before ZA434.
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Japan Airlines received the 100th 787. It was ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J)
this aircraft was seen by Matt Cawby at the Everett Delivery Center on Nov. 5th and a Flightwaware alert popped up showing that this aircraft was to leave that evening for Tokyo. The aircraft never left and was ultimately towed back to the flightline at Everett.
Since then Hainan Airlines took delivery of a 787, ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) at Charleston and flew it to China so that left many assuming that this aircraft was number 100.
Then Greg found a posting on Boeing's New Airplane Flight tracker web site. Boeing has delivered 101 787 as of November 8, 2013. This can only mean that ZA175 was delivered as not other 787 except for ZA434 has been seen at the Everett Delivery Center or the Charleston Delivery Center. Since ZA175 was at the EDC on Sept. 5 and ZA434 showed up at the CDC on Nov. 8th it should follow that ZA175 was delivered before ZA434.
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Monday, November 11, 2013
Second 787-9 takes flight, Boeing delivers 100th 787 (for real this time)
Boeing Photos
Ok so I have to backtrack a little bit. Last week ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J)for Japan
Airlines appeared at the Everett Delivery Center and later in the day
Flightaware.com showed a delivery flight planned for that aircraft to Tokyo. This was, I assumed, the 100th
delivery of a 787 to a customer and I reported it as such. However, the flight plan timed out and a
couple of days later the aircraft was towed back to a flightline stall. Now the aircraft may have been contractually delivered
but I am not sure. Right now it seems
that ZA434 for Hainan Airlines (LN 85, B-2730) looks to be the 100th
delivered 787.
Given the high level of interest in the 787 I would have
expected that Boeing would have made some comment about the delivery but as of
yet there hasn’t been any communication about it even after I’ve made an
inquiry about it. Boeing is being very
quiet about this which seems to suggest that there might be some sort of behind
the scenes issue with who is the actual recipient of 787 #100 or Boeing is
waiting to make a very big splash about it at some later date.
As far as production goes, Boeing is still making very good
progress in ramping up the rate in the factory.
November has been slow in terms of production testing after last month’s
flurry of flight test activity. There
are still 4 aircraft including the aforementioned ZA175 waiting to be delivered. Boeing has delivered 2 aircraft through the
first 10 days of this month though I still see Boeing able to deliver at least
6 more aircraft this month. They will
have to start moving planes out of the flightline and into customer hands if they’re
to increase the rate and avoid have a glut of 787s crowding the Everett and
Charleston ramps. This week will
probably be critical in terms of determining the progress in delivering these
Dreamliners. Boeing will need to get a
few (about 4) more aircraft up doing their B-1 as well as have the 6 airplanes
that have already started production testing flying their customer flights.
Last week ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT), the second 78-9 test
aircraft, flew for the first time in a 4 hour and 18 minute test flight. The following day, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX)
resumed test flights after spending a week at Everett. No reason was given for the 1 week layover
but I suspect it was to fine tune the aircraft and possibly change out some
flight test equipment. ZB021 (LN 139,
N789ZB) had its GEnx engines run for the first time and I suspect will join the
test flight program sometime around mid-December. In the meantime, Boeing is continuing
production work on the first 787-9.
ZB197 (LN 146) is destined for ANA and will be used for some of the
final testing activities that the FAA mandated to be done on a production standard
aircraft. I expect that this aircraft should roll out by late November but I
don’t expect that it will be needed for any test flights until February at the
earliest. I still expect that the first
787-9 should deliver to Air New Zealand around April, 2014.
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Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Boeing delivers 100th 787 to Japan Airlines
While I have no official confirmation nor any word from Boeing, it appears that the 100th 787 to be delivered went to Japan Airlines this afternoon. There was a flightplan just filed on Flightaware.com. The aircraft is ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) which is one of the early buiild 787s that had to go throughthe long process of change incorporation. So far I have not heard of any aircraft being delivered from Charleston as of yet. ZA175 is currently at the Everett Delivery Center.
Boeing has delivered 51 787s in 2013, and 100 aircraft since the start of deliveries in September 2011.
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Boeing has delivered 51 787s in 2013, and 100 aircraft since the start of deliveries in September 2011.
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Boeing delivers the 99th 787, number 100 right around the corner possibly going to United Airlines
Boeing delivered the ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) yesterday to Air
India marking the delivery of the 99th 787 built. The aircraft should be departing later today
but all eyes are on who will get number 100.
I do believe that United will take its next 787 this week thus I do
expect that they will take the 100th 787 to be delivered.
As I mentioned UAL should take it this week but it may come
as early as today. We’ll keep a watch
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Saturday, November 2, 2013
Boeing delivers 9 787s in October, up to 98 total deliveries
Boeing had delivered 9 787s in the month of October and all things considered that was a very good month. The production test flights in Everett was slowed down by a thick fog that hung around Everett for days and reduced visibility to much less than half a mile. Certainly not good conditions to fly. The delays caused by the weather had probably pushed back a few delivery dates to early November for a few Everett built 787s but also a factor was customer readiness to take these airplanes.
Of the notable airlines whose 787s are ready to be delivered to them are China Southern (2 aircraft), Hainan, and Air India. I do think that these aircraft along with one each for JAL and united will be delivered during the first week of November. There seems to have been a knock on effect of airplanes delivering a little bit later than planned. A number of 78s that were expected to be delivered by late September were delivered in early October. I expect there to be a similar occurrence this month with the 6 aircraft that have yet to be delivered.
Now that we are closing in on the end of the year, question turns to how many 787 will Boeing eventually deliver to its customers. As of the end of October Boeing has delivered 49 787s. This is 3 more than the number they delivered in 2012 and their target still remains above 60. They can reach that target by the end of November.
Here's how I think November and December will shake out in terms of 787 deliveries:
Air India - 2
ANA - 1
China Southern - 3
Hainan - 3
ILFC/Sky Blue Holdings - 1
ILFC/UAE Presidential Flight - 1
Japan Airlines - 2
Norwegian - 1
QANTAS/Jetstar - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
TUI Travel - 1
United Airlines - 1
This is a total of 19 aircraft that Boeing certainly can deliver within the next two months. This would bring the total 787s deliveries in 2013 to 68 and 117 overall. Boeing needs to start clearing out 787s both at Everett and North Charleston as the company prepares to increase the 787 production rate to 10/month in December.
At the same time Boeing also plans on getting the two remaining 787-9s into the flight test program. Boeing just rolled out the 3rd and final dedicated test flight aircraft, ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB). I expect that this aircraft should fly by late November - early December. We're still waiting for ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to fly and I suspect that this will occur sometime within the next one week. ZB001 flew back to Everett a few days ago. The reason is unknown but I am guessing that it can be so Boeing can change out some flight test equipment before resuming flight tests. To date, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) has accumulated over 150 flight test hours (I'm using Flightaware as my source). However, by the end of the year all three 787-9 flight test airframes should be deep into the flight test program and recording an increasing number of hours. I expect the first delivery of the 787-9 to Air New Zealand by about April of next year.
Finally, I'd like to leave you all with an idea you all might want to try in your spare time:
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Of the notable airlines whose 787s are ready to be delivered to them are China Southern (2 aircraft), Hainan, and Air India. I do think that these aircraft along with one each for JAL and united will be delivered during the first week of November. There seems to have been a knock on effect of airplanes delivering a little bit later than planned. A number of 78s that were expected to be delivered by late September were delivered in early October. I expect there to be a similar occurrence this month with the 6 aircraft that have yet to be delivered.
Now that we are closing in on the end of the year, question turns to how many 787 will Boeing eventually deliver to its customers. As of the end of October Boeing has delivered 49 787s. This is 3 more than the number they delivered in 2012 and their target still remains above 60. They can reach that target by the end of November.
Here's how I think November and December will shake out in terms of 787 deliveries:
Air India - 2
ANA - 1
China Southern - 3
Hainan - 3
ILFC/Sky Blue Holdings - 1
ILFC/UAE Presidential Flight - 1
Japan Airlines - 2
Norwegian - 1
QANTAS/Jetstar - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
TUI Travel - 1
United Airlines - 1
This is a total of 19 aircraft that Boeing certainly can deliver within the next two months. This would bring the total 787s deliveries in 2013 to 68 and 117 overall. Boeing needs to start clearing out 787s both at Everett and North Charleston as the company prepares to increase the 787 production rate to 10/month in December.
At the same time Boeing also plans on getting the two remaining 787-9s into the flight test program. Boeing just rolled out the 3rd and final dedicated test flight aircraft, ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB). I expect that this aircraft should fly by late November - early December. We're still waiting for ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to fly and I suspect that this will occur sometime within the next one week. ZB001 flew back to Everett a few days ago. The reason is unknown but I am guessing that it can be so Boeing can change out some flight test equipment before resuming flight tests. To date, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) has accumulated over 150 flight test hours (I'm using Flightaware as my source). However, by the end of the year all three 787-9 flight test airframes should be deep into the flight test program and recording an increasing number of hours. I expect the first delivery of the 787-9 to Air New Zealand by about April of next year.
Finally, I'd like to leave you all with an idea you all might want to try in your spare time:
To do list: go to a bank wearing a ski mask. Complete a normal transaction. Leave as if nothing happened.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) November 2, 2013
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Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Is Boeing holding back 787 deliveries?
I'm not the one to be into conspiracy theories but with several Dreamliners waiting on the flightline at both Charleston and Everett and seemingly done with their customer acceptance flights, I think Boeing is planning to deliver many of these aircraft at the same time so that the airline that will take the 100th delivery remains safely anonymous until the last moment.
Call me paranoid but it does seem that way. Boeing is flying quite a few test flights some within a day of the previous flight so that they can try and deliver them by October 31st.
Lastly, Matt Cawby tweeted that ZB001 (LN 133, N789FT) has its registration sticker attached thus indicating that first flight of this aircraft is imminent. I am guessing that it may take place by the end of this week.
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Call me paranoid but it does seem that way. Boeing is flying quite a few test flights some within a day of the previous flight so that they can try and deliver them by October 31st.
Lastly, Matt Cawby tweeted that ZB001 (LN 133, N789FT) has its registration sticker attached thus indicating that first flight of this aircraft is imminent. I am guessing that it may take place by the end of this week.
787-9 ZB002 now has registration N789FT
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) October 29, 2013
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Friday, October 25, 2013
Boeing starting to push 787 output rate higher; Fog lifts (for now) in Everett
According to the firing order for Everett, Boeing is planning to gradually increase the production rate at Everett using both the permanent and surge line. Boeing had placed 4 current in production 787s on the surge line in 40-24 leaving open the first two positions on the main final assembly line in 40-26 open. The last two positions are occupied with ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) and ZA560 (LN 141). This allows Boeing to increase the production rate without impacting any upstream or downstream airframes. Starting next week, Boeing will be loading a 787 every 4 to 6 days. In 40-26 the period between loadings looks to be about 10 days while in 40-24 the period between loadings appears to be about 10 to 11 days. This means that a 787 should be going through each line in about 40 days or less. When Boeing loads a 787 every 3.5 days in Everett (between both main and surge lines) they will be hitting a rate of about 8.5 787s per month which coupled with the 1.5/month from Charleston allows the 787 program to attain the 10/month. I think they'll still achieve this rate sometime in early to mid December.
The air around Everett is getting clearer, literally. Everett has been plagued by a constant bank of fog over the past few days which has severally limited test flight operations of the 787. It hasn't had an effect on flights from Boeing Field as ZB001 continues to fly from that airport.
Today alone Boeing sent up 5 production 787s from Everett and was planning to send a sixth one up on its first (B-1) flight. This airplane was ZA435 (LN 131, B-2731) and is slated for delivery to Hainan Airlines sometime next month. Boeing is appearing to make a huge last push to get at 5 to 8 deliveries done by end of the month and it does seem plausible that they can do it. If they were to do this then they can at least match the most 787 deliveries in one month if not surpass it. They would also deliver the 100th 787 to a customer. We'll know by next Friday if they were able to attain this.
In closing let me leave you with one last thought:
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The air around Everett is getting clearer, literally. Everett has been plagued by a constant bank of fog over the past few days which has severally limited test flight operations of the 787. It hasn't had an effect on flights from Boeing Field as ZB001 continues to fly from that airport.
Today alone Boeing sent up 5 production 787s from Everett and was planning to send a sixth one up on its first (B-1) flight. This airplane was ZA435 (LN 131, B-2731) and is slated for delivery to Hainan Airlines sometime next month. Boeing is appearing to make a huge last push to get at 5 to 8 deliveries done by end of the month and it does seem plausible that they can do it. If they were to do this then they can at least match the most 787 deliveries in one month if not surpass it. They would also deliver the 100th 787 to a customer. We'll know by next Friday if they were able to attain this.
In closing let me leave you with one last thought:
Always be yourself. Unless you can be Batman.. Then be Batman.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) October 25, 2013
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Wednesday, October 23, 2013
777X program gaining significant ground as Boeing continues to eye launch later this year
During the 3rd quarter earning conference call, Boeing CEO Jim McNerney reiterated Boeing's intention to launch the 777-8 and 777-9 later this year.
Current market expectations has Boeing's Board giving its formal blessing later this month (October) with the formal announcement coming at the Dubai Air Show which is scheduled to take place from November 17 to November 21st.
It is fully expected that Emirates, Qatar and Ethiad (the later is expected to increase its 787 order). Now according to Saj Ahmad, it is also expected the Cathay Pacific could place a significant 777X order either before or at the air show which may also be firmed at the show. Here's how I think 777X orders could shape up in the next month:
Lufthansa - 34 (already announced)
Cathay Pacific - 40 according to Saj Ahmad
Etihad - 30 plus another 30 787-9s
Qatar - 50 according to Saj
Emirates - 100 - 150
Current market expectations has Boeing's Board giving its formal blessing later this month (October) with the formal announcement coming at the Dubai Air Show which is scheduled to take place from November 17 to November 21st.
It is fully expected that Emirates, Qatar and Ethiad (the later is expected to increase its 787 order). Now according to Saj Ahmad, it is also expected the Cathay Pacific could place a significant 777X order either before or at the air show which may also be firmed at the show. Here's how I think 777X orders could shape up in the next month:
Lufthansa - 34 (already announced)
Cathay Pacific - 40 according to Saj Ahmad
Etihad - 30 plus another 30 787-9s
Qatar - 50 according to Saj
Emirates - 100 - 150
Boeing announces 787 production rate increases
In their 3rd quarter earnings announcement this morning, Boeing said they will increase the 787 production rate in 2016 from 10 to 12 aircraft per month eventually increasing to 14/month by the end of the decade. Even though the fact that they are increasing the production rate comes as no surprise, the announcement coming this early was. I was expecting an announcement of production increase next year.
Even though they haven't announced which site will benefit from the rate increase, I fully expect that Boeing South Carolina (Charleston) will see most if not all the increase in the rate of the 787. This rate increase is being timed with the need to produce 787-10 aircraft in sufficient quantities by 2017 which is when Boeing expect to start testing the double stretch of the 787. I can also see some interim production increases (to 11 in 2015 and to 13 in 2017-2018).
This announcement also will fuel the discussion as to where the 777X will be built. With JALs announcement that they will buy the A350, there is increasing outlook that Boeing will build more of the new large jet outside of Japan (even if ANA orders it). I believe that Boeing will build this airplane in Everett and assuming that the future 787 increases are built in Charleston, I can see a stronger case that the final assembly of the 777X will take place in Everett.
From Boeing's press release:
Even though they haven't announced which site will benefit from the rate increase, I fully expect that Boeing South Carolina (Charleston) will see most if not all the increase in the rate of the 787. This rate increase is being timed with the need to produce 787-10 aircraft in sufficient quantities by 2017 which is when Boeing expect to start testing the double stretch of the 787. I can also see some interim production increases (to 11 in 2015 and to 13 in 2017-2018).
This announcement also will fuel the discussion as to where the 777X will be built. With JALs announcement that they will buy the A350, there is increasing outlook that Boeing will build more of the new large jet outside of Japan (even if ANA orders it). I believe that Boeing will build this airplane in Everett and assuming that the future 787 increases are built in Charleston, I can see a stronger case that the final assembly of the 777X will take place in Everett.
From Boeing's press release:
During the quarter, the 787-9 completed first flight. With the successful launch of the 787-10 and continued strong demand for the 787 family of airplanes, the company intends to increase the 787 production rate from 10 to 12 per month in 2016, with plans to increase to 14 per month before the end of the decade.
Friday, October 18, 2013
787 test aircraft possibly moving to change incorporation to prepare for delivery
ZA005, Boeing first 787 powered by GE's GEnx-1B engines looks to be done with its career as a Boeing test aircraft testing PIP for the these engines. Matt Cawby tweeted yesterday these two tweets:
It appears that Boeing is preparing ZA005 for its second career with a paying customer, possibly a BBJ customer, by starting change incorporation at the EMC. It will have to have the orange test flight wiring removed and be bought up to certification specs which may take as long as a year or more. Its sister ship ZA006, also GE powered, has been in San Antonio, ostensibly going through change incorporation as well but has been there for well over a year. This may indicate that Boeing doesn't have a customer for it as of now and are going slow on the change incorporation.
ZB002 still on the flightline, has open panels and doesn't have the aircraft registration applied to it. This indicates that the aircraft is not yet ready to fly but I still anticipate that it will fly towards the end of next week.
Lastly, I'd like to leave you all with a the profound thought of the day:
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ZA5 N787FT just moved from the Everett flight line to the EMC pic.twitter.com/cC206BKMf7
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) October 17, 2013
@ureshs Looks like all the flight test equipment was removed while on the flight line
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) October 17, 2013
It appears that Boeing is preparing ZA005 for its second career with a paying customer, possibly a BBJ customer, by starting change incorporation at the EMC. It will have to have the orange test flight wiring removed and be bought up to certification specs which may take as long as a year or more. Its sister ship ZA006, also GE powered, has been in San Antonio, ostensibly going through change incorporation as well but has been there for well over a year. This may indicate that Boeing doesn't have a customer for it as of now and are going slow on the change incorporation.
ZB002 still on the flightline, has open panels and doesn't have the aircraft registration applied to it. This indicates that the aircraft is not yet ready to fly but I still anticipate that it will fly towards the end of next week.
Lastly, I'd like to leave you all with a the profound thought of the day:
If spiders ever realize that people are terrified of them, We’re fucked.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) October 18, 2013
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Wednesday, October 16, 2013
Boeing equals 2012 787 delivery total.
Mid way through October Boeing has delivered 46 787s which is the same number that they delivered in all of 2012. They've made great progress in bouncing back from the battery issues that grounded the world wide fleet and halted deliveries. Through Oct. 6th, Boeing has delivered 95 787s and looks to deliver the 100th 787 later this month.
Which one will get that honor is up in the air but it should still happen this month as there are several 787s that are in the middle or have completed their production testing.
Given we're at month end I think there is a little bit more clarity to the delivery schedule for the rest of this month. So far in October Boeing has delivered 6 787 including 4 from Charleston. Boeing, I believe, can deliver another 6 to 8 aircraft as follows:
ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) to Japan Airlines
ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) to Air India
ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) to China Southern Airlines
ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) to Hainan Airlines
ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) to China Southern Airlines
ZA562 (LN 122, N964AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA563 (LN 127, N965AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA446 (LN 130, V8-DLB) to Royal Brunei Airlines
* Dependent on US Govt. shutdown
While it looks good that the US government may reopen as early as tomorrow this could help with the deliveries to US-based buyers like ILFC. ZA562's deliver, it seems, has been delayed as the FAA's registration office in Wichita, KS has remained closed because of the budget debacle.
While Boeing has been pretty aggressive with conducting production flights for the first half of the month, things seems to have quieted down in the last couple of days indicating that Boeing may be making taking some corrective action on the airplanes that they have flown before conducting customer acceptance flights or are preparing for those customer flights which would get underway shortly. Additionally, Boeing is preparing to fly the second 787-9 (ZB002, LN 133, N789FT) within the next week though no date has been given. So far the 787-9 test program has accumulated just under 94 flight test hours.
Looking ahead, it seems that Boeing might be gearing up to increase 787 output per their plan. 10/month by the end of the year is still their goal and they seem to be on the verge of achieving it. Sources have told me that LN 158 will be the first airframe that will be produced at 10/month. This aircraft is slated to be built in Charleston. Boeing appears to be loading a 787 frame into position 1 every 14 to 16 days. Extrapolated this would mean that ZA244 (LN 158, VT-ANP) should load (and Boeing would start producing 10/month) around December 8th. Boeing is quickening the production rate which did slow down due to the 787-9 flight test aircraft assembly.
Lastly, with the government shutdown seemingly coming to an end, I'd like to leave you all with this:
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Given we're at month end I think there is a little bit more clarity to the delivery schedule for the rest of this month. So far in October Boeing has delivered 6 787 including 4 from Charleston. Boeing, I believe, can deliver another 6 to 8 aircraft as follows:
ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) to Japan Airlines
ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) to Air India
ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) to China Southern Airlines
ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) to Hainan Airlines
ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) to China Southern Airlines
ZA562 (LN 122, N964AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA563 (LN 127, N965AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA446 (LN 130, V8-DLB) to Royal Brunei Airlines
* Dependent on US Govt. shutdown
While it looks good that the US government may reopen as early as tomorrow this could help with the deliveries to US-based buyers like ILFC. ZA562's deliver, it seems, has been delayed as the FAA's registration office in Wichita, KS has remained closed because of the budget debacle.
While Boeing has been pretty aggressive with conducting production flights for the first half of the month, things seems to have quieted down in the last couple of days indicating that Boeing may be making taking some corrective action on the airplanes that they have flown before conducting customer acceptance flights or are preparing for those customer flights which would get underway shortly. Additionally, Boeing is preparing to fly the second 787-9 (ZB002, LN 133, N789FT) within the next week though no date has been given. So far the 787-9 test program has accumulated just under 94 flight test hours.
Looking ahead, it seems that Boeing might be gearing up to increase 787 output per their plan. 10/month by the end of the year is still their goal and they seem to be on the verge of achieving it. Sources have told me that LN 158 will be the first airframe that will be produced at 10/month. This aircraft is slated to be built in Charleston. Boeing appears to be loading a 787 frame into position 1 every 14 to 16 days. Extrapolated this would mean that ZA244 (LN 158, VT-ANP) should load (and Boeing would start producing 10/month) around December 8th. Boeing is quickening the production rate which did slow down due to the 787-9 flight test aircraft assembly.
Lastly, with the government shutdown seemingly coming to an end, I'd like to leave you all with this:
So... the good news is that you're getting the government back, and the bad news is that you're getting THAT government back.
— SarcasticRover (@SarcasticRover) October 16, 2013
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Friday, October 11, 2013
Boeing makes big push for 100 Dreamliner deliveries and a record number of 787 deliveries this month; 2nd 787-9 poised to join flight test effort
Boeing is conducting an aggressive effort to deliver a large number of 787s this month. Even before mid month Boeing has delivered 5 787s many of these a spillover from September when they were expected to be delivered. Through today, October 11th, 2013, Boeing has delivered 94 Dreamliners and will more than likely deliver it 100th 787 later this month. Right now it's way to early to speculate to whom the 100 delivered 787 will go to as it depends on the progress of production flights.
Undeniably Boeing has been making a big push to deliver as many 787s as possible. Today, alone there were 4 test flights including 2 B-1 flight. A third was scheduled but didn't fly. There are 3 Dreamliners that appear to be ready for delivery including the 6th for China Southern and the 2nd for Aeromexico. One factor that can hinder deliveries, at least to US owners, is the continuing government shutdown. While Boeing has the FAA inspectors back on the job at Charleston, the FAA still does not have its employees back in the office that process the aircraft registration and title transfers. Boeing said that they can be mailed in but there still may be some delays due to the shutdown. Deliveries to ILFC and United can be affected as well as to US based BBJ customers, for one of whom there is an aircraft about to start assembly. Given the progression here's how I see the remainder of October shaking out in terms of 787 deliveries:
China Southern - 2 (1 each from Charleston and Everett)
Japan Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (from Charleston)
Qatar Airways - 1 (from Charleston)
ILFC/Aeromexico - 2 (from Everett, dependent on government shutdown)
Royal Brunei Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
United Airlines - 1 (from Charleston, dependent on government shutdown)
Other deliveries that may take place this month:
Air India (from Everett)
Japan Airlines (from Charleston)
Deliveries from Charleston have resumed after almost 3 months which is very good news. Between September 30th and Oct. 9th, the Charleston facility delivered 4 787s and can deliver anywhere from 3 to 5 more this month which will help tremendously with the inventory there. What will be interesting to see is whether Boeing can bring down the number of production test flights required for the Charleston built 787s. The aircraft that were delivered recently needed many more flights than the ones built at Everett but this is probably attributable to Charleston still trying to ramp up the learning curve. As time goes on the build quality should improve. Everett wen through the same thing with some of the early delivered 787s.
Lastly the second 787-9 is getting close to making its first flight and joining its sister-ship at Boeing Field for test and certification activities. ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was just moved from the fuel dock at Everett to a stall space on the flightline. It should fly by Oct. 24th if it encounters no issues on pre-flight ground testing that should commence shortly. To put the schedule in perspective. It took ZB001 (LN 126, N787EX) 24 days from roll out to first flight. ZB002 rolled out on September 30th and applying the same metric to this aircraft should give a first flight date of around Oct. 24th. I do expect it to fly earlier than that as Boeing has improved knowledge from the ZB001's pre-flight. Again this all assumes that ZB002 doesn't have any issues in the run up to first flight. Another interesting stat is that ZB001 took 86 days in final assembly including painting and installation of test equipment. ZA002 improved that number by 6 days to a total of 80 days in final assembly. Boeing should be able to apply lessons learned from the first aircraft to get the 2nd aircraft up sooner. We'll know by the 24th.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Undeniably Boeing has been making a big push to deliver as many 787s as possible. Today, alone there were 4 test flights including 2 B-1 flight. A third was scheduled but didn't fly. There are 3 Dreamliners that appear to be ready for delivery including the 6th for China Southern and the 2nd for Aeromexico. One factor that can hinder deliveries, at least to US owners, is the continuing government shutdown. While Boeing has the FAA inspectors back on the job at Charleston, the FAA still does not have its employees back in the office that process the aircraft registration and title transfers. Boeing said that they can be mailed in but there still may be some delays due to the shutdown. Deliveries to ILFC and United can be affected as well as to US based BBJ customers, for one of whom there is an aircraft about to start assembly. Given the progression here's how I see the remainder of October shaking out in terms of 787 deliveries:
China Southern - 2 (1 each from Charleston and Everett)
Japan Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (from Charleston)
Qatar Airways - 1 (from Charleston)
ILFC/Aeromexico - 2 (from Everett, dependent on government shutdown)
Royal Brunei Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
United Airlines - 1 (from Charleston, dependent on government shutdown)
Other deliveries that may take place this month:
Air India (from Everett)
Japan Airlines (from Charleston)
Deliveries from Charleston have resumed after almost 3 months which is very good news. Between September 30th and Oct. 9th, the Charleston facility delivered 4 787s and can deliver anywhere from 3 to 5 more this month which will help tremendously with the inventory there. What will be interesting to see is whether Boeing can bring down the number of production test flights required for the Charleston built 787s. The aircraft that were delivered recently needed many more flights than the ones built at Everett but this is probably attributable to Charleston still trying to ramp up the learning curve. As time goes on the build quality should improve. Everett wen through the same thing with some of the early delivered 787s.
Lastly the second 787-9 is getting close to making its first flight and joining its sister-ship at Boeing Field for test and certification activities. ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was just moved from the fuel dock at Everett to a stall space on the flightline. It should fly by Oct. 24th if it encounters no issues on pre-flight ground testing that should commence shortly. To put the schedule in perspective. It took ZB001 (LN 126, N787EX) 24 days from roll out to first flight. ZB002 rolled out on September 30th and applying the same metric to this aircraft should give a first flight date of around Oct. 24th. I do expect it to fly earlier than that as Boeing has improved knowledge from the ZB001's pre-flight. Again this all assumes that ZB002 doesn't have any issues in the run up to first flight. Another interesting stat is that ZB001 took 86 days in final assembly including painting and installation of test equipment. ZA002 improved that number by 6 days to a total of 80 days in final assembly. Boeing should be able to apply lessons learned from the first aircraft to get the 2nd aircraft up sooner. We'll know by the 24th.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Boeing delivers 5 787s in September, 787-9 finishes Initial Airworthiness Testing
There was high expectations that Boeing would have delivered quite a few 787s during September in an effort to improve quarterly results, however, Boeing managed only 5 deliveries during the past month. On a bright note, it seems that there can be a good number of aircraft that should be delivered in early October as their delivery dates were pushed to the current month. Boeing was very aggressive in production test flights in the effort to deliver many Dreamliners including the first aircraft to Jetstar (QANTAS) and Royal Brunei Airlines. Additionally there were several 787s in Charleston that were expected to be delivered in September including aircraft for Air India, China Southern, Hainan, Qatar and LAN. Hainan was delivered in September while China Southern was delivered on Oct. 1 and flew away on Oct. 2nd. Boeing had to fly a lot of test flights on the 5 airplanes that they were trying to deliver from Charleston. None of the aircraft for the above mentioned carriers flew fewer than 8 test flights with one 787 for LAN recording 13 flights. Two of these aircraft should deliver in early October with the Air India delivery on hold due to the usual financing issues with Air India.
Everett faired a little bit better but Boeing was planning to deliver the first 787s each to Jetstar and Royal Brunei. These airplanes are still at Everett and I believe they should deliver in the early part of October as well. All in all September was a very slow month for 787 deliveries and part of it may be due in part to customers being very picky during customer inspections (Qatar) as well as continued media reports about breakdown, cancellations and delays of the 787s in service with the customers. Amongst the most vocal airlines regarding the teething issues are Norwegian, LOT Polish and Qatar. However, it is a little disconcerting that aircraft built at Charleston had to fly more test flights (Boeing and customer) than those built at Everett though there were 787s that were assembled at Everett, especially the ones that were delivered in 2011 through mid 2012, that had to undertake numerous test flights. Undoubtedly, as the Charleston team improves efficiency and their experience the number of test flights and squawks will trend downward.
So what should we expect for October? This is difficult to say for several reasons: 1) Any issues at Charleston which currently has 8 787s waiting to be delivered and 9th that will be coming out soon. 2) Increase scrutiny by customers of their aircraft prior to deliveries which can lead to more customer flights 3) unpredictability of certain customers to take deliveries (Air India, China Southern, Hainan, and Qatar). There is a fourth issue which may come up and that is the current government shutdown that can affect 787 production particularly with the 787-9 but also on changes with the 787-8. Boeing has already spoken about this. With the US Government shutdown there aren't any FAA inspectors to carry certification work and that could have a significant impact on deliveries. I'll be watching this carefully. I do think that we can see 9 to 10 787 deliveries mainly because of the spillover of missed September deliveries into October.
Lastly, Boeing announced that the 787-9 has completed Initial Airworthiness Testing which clears the way for Boeing 's engineers to fly aboard the aircraft in order to collect data. Boeing has completed just under 50 hours of testing over the last two weeks. The second test flight aircraft, ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was rolled out around Sept. 30th. It spent 8- days in production vs. 86 for ZB001. ZB001 flew 24 days after being rolled out. If I apply the same metric to ZB002 then it should fly (barring any issues or unknown unknowns) by October 24th. I believe it can fly by mid October.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Everett faired a little bit better but Boeing was planning to deliver the first 787s each to Jetstar and Royal Brunei. These airplanes are still at Everett and I believe they should deliver in the early part of October as well. All in all September was a very slow month for 787 deliveries and part of it may be due in part to customers being very picky during customer inspections (Qatar) as well as continued media reports about breakdown, cancellations and delays of the 787s in service with the customers. Amongst the most vocal airlines regarding the teething issues are Norwegian, LOT Polish and Qatar. However, it is a little disconcerting that aircraft built at Charleston had to fly more test flights (Boeing and customer) than those built at Everett though there were 787s that were assembled at Everett, especially the ones that were delivered in 2011 through mid 2012, that had to undertake numerous test flights. Undoubtedly, as the Charleston team improves efficiency and their experience the number of test flights and squawks will trend downward.
So what should we expect for October? This is difficult to say for several reasons: 1) Any issues at Charleston which currently has 8 787s waiting to be delivered and 9th that will be coming out soon. 2) Increase scrutiny by customers of their aircraft prior to deliveries which can lead to more customer flights 3) unpredictability of certain customers to take deliveries (Air India, China Southern, Hainan, and Qatar). There is a fourth issue which may come up and that is the current government shutdown that can affect 787 production particularly with the 787-9 but also on changes with the 787-8. Boeing has already spoken about this. With the US Government shutdown there aren't any FAA inspectors to carry certification work and that could have a significant impact on deliveries. I'll be watching this carefully. I do think that we can see 9 to 10 787 deliveries mainly because of the spillover of missed September deliveries into October.
Lastly, Boeing announced that the 787-9 has completed Initial Airworthiness Testing which clears the way for Boeing 's engineers to fly aboard the aircraft in order to collect data. Boeing has completed just under 50 hours of testing over the last two weeks. The second test flight aircraft, ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was rolled out around Sept. 30th. It spent 8- days in production vs. 86 for ZB001. ZB001 flew 24 days after being rolled out. If I apply the same metric to ZB002 then it should fly (barring any issues or unknown unknowns) by October 24th. I believe it can fly by mid October.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
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