Saturday, December 7, 2013

Boeing delivers an anemic 5 787s in November.

So you know how I said that I thought Boeing can deliver 10 to 12 787s last month...boy I didn't even come close.  Instead they delivered an anemic 5 aircraft last month despite all the activity with many of  the aircraft that are still parked in Everett and Charleston.  Boeing has maintained that they will deliver more than 60 787s this year an though the expectations was for a number closer to 68 tor 69 Boeing will still claim that they will have hit their target if all they deliver is 61 in 2013.  They would have met their guidance though I think it would have been a disappointment.

That said, I still do believe they can deliver 64 airplanes this year.  Thus far, Boeing has delivered 56 aircraft including 2 in December. They have the potential to deliver 8 more aircraft even though they can deliver just 5 more and meet their guidance. 

Lately Boeing has been running a few test flights on two frames built in Charleston: ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) for China Southern Airlines and ZA187 (LN 125, JA833J) for Japan Airlines.  I believe that these are final customer flights meant to wring out any further squawks that customer reps have found.  These airplanes should deliver soon but along with those I do expect further deliveries to Hainan, QANTAS (Jetstar) and the first 787 business jet to the UAE Presidential Flight.

Here's my list of expected 787 deliveries in December:

China Southern - 2 aircraft - ZA386 and ZA381
Hainan Airlines - 2 aircraft - ZA432 and ZA435
Japan Airlines - 1 aircraft - ZA187
QANTAS (Jetstar) - 2 aircraft - ZA216 and ZA217
UAE Presidential Flight (leased from ILFC) - 1 aircraft - ZA560

787-9 seems to be making fairly good progress and the flight test program is slowly coming up on three full months of flight testing. It is expected that the flight test/certification program will continue for another 3 to 4 months and first delivery to Air New Zealand should occur around July 2014.  The first production 787-9 (ZB197) was rolled out of 40-26 on November 20th and placed inside the Everett Modification Center (EMC).  This aircraft will deliver to ANA probably later in the summer.  The second production aircraft and the first to deliver to the launch customer is ZB003 is still a couple months away from starting final assembly but both these airplanes will be used for F & R (functionality and reliability) testing as well as other FAA mandated tests which needs to be completed on a production standard aircraft.  The three flight test aircraft will be refurbished with 2 going to Air New Zealand and the 3rd (GE-powered) 787-9 flight test aircraft is rumored to be going to Japan Airlines.

Lastly, two 787 that were most recently rolled out the final assembly building in Everett were taken not to the flightline but to the EMC.  There was confusion related to this and many speculated that it is due to some "issues" that the 787 might be experiencing though nothing has come up that would warrant that kind of speculation.  The two aircraft are ZA586 which is another ILFC leased business jet and ZB197, the aforementioned 787-9 for ANA that will be used for testing.  First ZA586 is probably there to get some specialized work down related to its cabin installation after delivery.  Nothing unusual there.  ZB197 is not needed for another couple months and will probably have some minimal flight test equipment installed.  Either way I don't think it's a sign of anything amiss in the 787 program.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators



Pete Templin said...

FYI, Seattle is experiencing its coldest weekend in the past three years. We saw 14 degrees this morning, and remained below freezing all day. Perhaps some aircraft are going to EMC for better conditions.

Andrew Munsell said...

I went on the Boeing tour in Everett today, and after it saw ZA586 just sitting at the EMC with no vehicles around, but there was work with ZB197. ZB197's cargo door was open and some flight test equipment, I think about to be loaded. Right next to it was LN5. I have pictures of the flightline and the 3 planes I saw at the EMC but wasn't allowed to bring my camera to the lines. We saw 40-26.

william said...

Hey anyone know what's going on with the terrible teens. I have noticed that they have came to a stand still and aren't pushing out as fast as they use to. I heard they were all to be repaired and delivered by mid 2014 and at this stage I highely doubt that of happening.

Uresh said...

Timing on re-work is dependent on when the carrier wants them delivered and what work needs to be done on them. Those planes will take close to a year to be re-worked before they can be delivered.

TravelingMan said...

Yeah I don't know why, maybe it's because they've been on the spreadsheets so long, but that's one of the first things I always look at when I logon- the status of the terrible teens. Guess I'm anticipating the day when the time and energy and floor space put into them can be used to increase production.

Andrew Boydston said...

Glitch Suppression is now pacing the 787. The press has had little to write about in the last two weeks as Boeing is bent on making sure the copy and paste Press doesn't write anymore battery references when explaining ice in the negine articles. Boeing has entered an era of retiring the press reports on whats wrong with the 787. Therefore, a careful consideration is given each aircraft before delivery. I would hope that Boeing does slow the pace down during the winter, with a robust charge at refining glitching. Do you have news on the Ethiopian 787 in Heathrow undergoing fire repair? That is a very interesting case not reported on much. I would hope this craft would be flying again soon as a proof of repair concept oon a major section of the body is completed. I saw just one article last month on its progress.

1coolguy1 said...

All 6 ready for delivery have the GE engine. I don't see these being delivered until after the software changes are made, tested and approved.

larmeyers said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
johnv777 said...

Uresh, regarding you comment on " There's still a Qatar 787 at Ft. Worth and has been there for a few weeks already."

Dallas Ft Worth has been completely iced over since Thursday. Even DFW has had problems keeping a runway open. Ft worth may not have the equipment to clear the runway. Just a thought.

Anonymous said...

1) I hope no one was injured!
2) Given the extremely fragile state of hull sections being joined, it speaks well of Boeing's processes that these events are extremely rare or - their PR folks do a great job of covering them up. (I'm not sure that they could bury an event like this even if they wanted to.
3) Good to remember that airframes are designed to and have their greatest strength when FLYING; they are not designed to withstand any degree of trauma on the ground and especially not during major component joining.
4) Boeing will recover quickly.

Weijie Deng said...

According to China Southern sources, they are expecting 3 787 delivery in December, which will occur in Dec 19th. Those three are B-2726 ZA381, B-2737 ZA386, B-2735 ZA387(if test flight goes according to plan). Not sure how will the mishap affect future delivery.