Thursday, January 1, 2015

787 2014 Year End Report - Boeing finishes 2014 with 114 787 deliveries




Boeing finished 2014 with a typical December delivery rush including handing over 18 787s during December 2014.  This is a new 787 delivery record which surpasses 15 787 that was delivered in June of this year in order to make mid year delivery goals.

Here are the 787 numbers thus far:

228 - the total number of 787 that have been delivered to customers since deliveries began in 2011
114 - the total number of 787s delivered in 2014
35 - the total number of 787s delivered in the 4th quarter
18 - the total number of 787s delivered in December, 2014
118 - the total number of 787s that started final assembly in 2014
120 - the total number of 787s rolled out the 2 787 assembly halls
10 - the total number of 787-9s delivered in 2014
104 - the total number of 787-8s delivered in 2014
1.05 - the efficiency of the 787 production system in 2014 (the number should be below 1 to indicate an efficient production system)
0.97 - the efficiency of the North Charleston final assembly
1.09 - the efficiency of the Everett final assembly (includes both the main Everett and surge lines).

Boeing overall did well on the 787 program in 2014 though it does remain to be seen how they've been able to handle deferred production costs. Boeing did exceed their guidance by 4 aircraft though they were planning to deliver 120 787s in 2014.  Several had to be deferred to 2015 for various reasons including the lack of seats for completed aircraft. The fact that the production efficiency is above 1 indicates that the the production system is still not stable.  The difficulties that with traveled work and the need to re-hire temporary workers in North Charleston highlighted the ongoing production system issues that continue to plague the 787 program.  Even now aircraft that have finished final assembly are still worked on to complete assembly tasks.

Still Boeing was able to flawlessly execute on the 787-9, as well as get the production rate up to 10/month despite issues coming out of the North Charleston campus with traveled work.  Deferred production cost has increased to over $25bn as Boeing stockpiled parts to mitigate shortages and reduce traveled work.

787s were delivered to first time new operators including:

Air Canada
Air New Zealand
Arke
Avianca
Azerbaijan Airlines
Etihad Airways
Kenya Airways
Royal Air Maroc
Royal Jordanian
Thai Airways International
Virgin Atlantic
Xiamen

Plus new BBJ owners

December's delivery count was unusually large due to the delayed delivery of several 787s to Avianca (4) and Azerbaijan Airlines (2).  Earlier this year I was projecting that Boeing would deliver 120 787s.  Several were deferred due to delays with seats as well as knock on effects from previous delays.  Notably American Airlines and Scoot were to receive their first 787s in 2014 are now expected to receive them in 2015.  One early build 787 for Korean Airlines (VIP) was ready for delivery in 2014 but is now taped and sealed at the Everett Modification Center.  The fact that this aircraft is not being worked on and is sealed indicates that there is an unknown issue(s) holding up delivery to Korean Airlines.  This aircraft is to be used as a government VIP aircraft and it is possible the delay can be attributed to the finished interior that is to be installed in the aircraft including classified military gear though this is speculation on my part.

Boeing has set it self up for a 2015 rather well but issues still remain including deferred production cost and continued traveled work.  If they are able to over come these issues then we should see a high number of 787 deliveries in 2015 compared to 2014.

Stay tuned for my 787 2015 look ahead which will be out soon.

787 Full Production Table

10 comments:

Pete Templin said...

You write "1.05 - the efficiency of the 787 production system in 2014 (the number should be below 1 to indicate an efficient production system)" - production efficiency <1 is completely unsustainable long-term. If Boeing were to clear out its entire backlog, the only other way they could hit <1 on a given period is to shorten up the time outside the plant. With 16 in pre-flight prep (not counting LN11) and 3 in production testing, if the legacy backlog was gone, they could only hit <1 efficiency for 19 months, maximum, by progressively shortening the time outside the plant. At a production rate of 10/month, those 19 planes represent an average 1.9 months on the ground. If painting takes ~7 days, test flights took ~3 days, and the customers could finalize funding in <5 days, you'd still be looking at an average of 5 planes on the ground, or only 14 possible planes to efficiently deliver.

Harj Bains said...

A big thank you for your posts, I always look forward to the updates.

okwang said...

Thank you for your updates on the 787 program.

Happy New year.

You were cited as a source by Reuters.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0K914L20141231?irpc=932

William Quick said...

A blogger from Seattle posted a comment that seems difficult to believe; can anyone refute it here or at that blog? The comment: "they throw together Boeing airplanes with “right-to-work” labor paid $10 an hour, which are then shipped to Washington State for disassembly and reassembly by union aerospace workers who know what they’re doing." The blog post is at http://handbill.us/?p=39610

TravelingMan said...

There's no need to refute that comment. Stupid comments refute themselves. Boeing wouldn't be a successful business if they allowed such counterproductive business practices to happen. Learn to think for yourself.

1coolguy1 said...

Idiocy - the blogger is an idiot.
Ask him for his source - there won't be one.

aldeen.rs said...

Nice to see that Boeing meets its target to deliver 110 planes during 2014. Thank you for you follow up and updating, hope your effort will continue during 2015 & happy new year.

1coolguy1 said...

This may have been answered but why are the delivery dates for these -9's, 4/15, 7/15 and 8/15, line #'s
126,133 and 139, pushed out so far? They are in storage and change incorporation, even though -9's seem to have been a very successful roll-out, including to these companies.
I would expect with the extreme fuel savings these offer, companies would not hesitate getting them delivered ASAP.

Uresh said...

Again, these are test airplanes which need to have all the test equipment and test wiring ripped out and then the aircraft must be rebuilt to certification specs and then customer interiors need to be assembled and installed. This all takes time and time lines are dependent on customer needs and the available resources that Boeing has as to devote to al of that.

1coolguy1 said...

Ok, thanks. Didn't know.