Friday, January 9, 2015

2015 Look Ahead for the 787



With 2014 firmly in the rear view mirror, we can start looking ahead at what's next for the 787 program.

According to sources, Boeing is planning for 138 deliveries.  Given they just finished a year where program execution was not good, the prospect of Boeing hitting 138 deliveries is a little far fetched.  They would need to execute final assembly perfectly and drive down  assembly to delivery times.  In December, if the delivery outliers (namely aircraft going to Avianca, Etihad and Azerbaijan Airways) are taken out, then Boeing was able to assemble and delivery the 787 at an average of 107 days.  This is much to long if they intend to increase the number of deliveries in 2015.  In my view Boeing should be able to deliver around 125 to 130 787s.  I'll track their progress vs. the 138 plan deliveries and their delivery guidance for 2015 as it can help gauge how well the production system is working especially in terms of their internal goals.

2015 will be notable year for a few reason.  First there will be customers taking deliveries of their first 787s as well as existing operators taking delivery of their first 787-9.  Last year Boeing managed to deliver 10 787-9.  In the new year Boeing expects to deliver a significant number of the enlarged version of the aircraft.  The expectation is for 64 deliveries of the 787-9 which will help profitability of the 787 program overall.

Here is a list of operators who will be receiving their first 787 this year:

1st Time 787 Operator
American Airlines
Kalair (Bermuda)
Korean Air
Oman Air
PrivatAir
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines
Saudi Arabian Airlines
Scoot Pte Ltd
Tuifly Nordic
Vietnam Airlines
An a list of operators who will be receiving their first 787-9:

1st Time 787-9 Operator
Air Canada
British Airways
Japan Airlines
Kalair (Bermuda)
LAN
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines
Saudi Arabian Airlines
Scoot Pte Ltd
Vietnam Airlines
Obviously some of these deliveries had rolled over from last year, namely American Airlines, Korean Air, and Scoot.

However, the overriding theme of the year will not just be making timely deliveries but also trying to further reduce the cost of the 787 program and that starts with reducing deferred production costs and trying to cap it at the current $25.2bn level.

Finally here's a projection of the 2015 operator deliveries:

Projected 2015 Deliveries (Operator)Expected Total DeliveriesActual DeliveriesExp.Pre-L/N 66 DeliveriesActual Pre-L/N 66 DeliveriesExpected 787-8 DeliveriesActual 787-8 DeliveriesExpected 787-9 DeliveriesActual 787-9 Deliveries
Aeroméxico33
Air Canada523
Air India44
Air New Zealand33
American Airlines1212
ANA1037
Arke11
Avianca33
British Airways55
Ethiopian Airlines33
Etihad Airways44
Hainan Airlines22
His Majesty The Sultan's Flight11
Japan Airlines642
Jetstar44
Kalair (Bermuda)11
Kenya Airways33
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines22
Korean Air111
LAN77
Norwegian Air International Ltd11
Oman Air22
PrivatAir11
Qatar Airways77
Royal Air Maroc11
Saudi Arabian Airlines11
Scoot Pte Ltd1046
TBD333
Thai Airways International22
Thomson11
Tuifly Nordic22
United Airlines1111
Vietnam Airlines55
Virgin Atlantic Airways77
Xiamen Airlines44
Total138040740640

And a list of 2015 customer deliveries:

Projected 2015 Deliveries (Customer)Expected Total DeliveriesActual DeliveriesExp.Pre-L/N 66 DeliveriesActual Pre-L/N 66 DeliveriesExpected 787-8 DeliveriesActual 787-8 DeliveriesExpected 787-9 DeliveriesActual 787-9 Deliveries
AerCap1257
Aeroméxico11
Air Canada523
Air India44
Air New Zealand33
American Airlines1212
ANA1037
Avianca33
BBJ11
British Airways55
CIT Leasing22
Etihad Airways44
Hainan Airlines22
Japan Airlines642
Kalair (Bermuda)11
Kenya Airways33
Korean Air111
LAN22
Norwegian Air International Ltd11
Oman Air22
PrivatAir11
QANTAS44
Qatar Airways77
Royal Air Maroc11
Saudi Arabian Airlines11
Scoot Pte Ltd1046
TBD333
TUI Travel44
United Airlines1111
Vietnam Airlines55
Virgin Atlantic Airways77
Xiamen Airlines44
Total138040740640

7 comments:

Charlie said...

Do you think Ethiad will receive enough 787-9 aircraft to start flying them on their IAD-AUH route by early March?

1coolguy1 said...

Boeing deliveries in 2014 were: 737: 40 per month, 777: 8.5 and 787:9.5.
Given the large backlog of 787 orders, there sure seems to be a case for upping the 787 deliveries. Certainly there are supplier constraints, yet with >200 delivered, the learning curve is certainly well over with.
Boeing is targeting 737 deliveries at 52 in 2018, so they have that well-oiled line figured out.
I would think they could up the 787 rate in the next few years also - did they incorporate a 737 - like traveling production line in the 787 plants?
With all their teething and mismanagement issues hopefully behind them, it sure looks as though a rate greater than 10 per month in the next few years is very achievable: Anyone know what the planned production rate is a few years out?

ce said...

138? That's 11.5 per month. Fantastic!

Why so pessimistic?

Their plan last year was 110. You were skeptical at times during the year, too. But they surpassed the goal with 114.

Give them the benefit of the doubt this time around, please.

Dan Kaberon said...

What is the latest on dispatch reliability? Going back, this was a huge issue with fixes in the pipeline. What happened?

When will we get an idea on -9 dispatch rates?

Imran said...

Hi,

Referring to your excel document on the 787 production, it says that the Scoot B787 delivery is on 23 Jan 2015. Is this a confirmed or estimated date? Also do you know what time will the plane depart for the delivery flight? I would like to plane spot that plane.

Pete Templin said...

If Boeing sustains at 10/month assembly loading and aircraft roll-out, they'll hit 120 for the year. The other 18 can come from 10 in storage/change incorporation, 4 in change incorporation, and/or shaving down the ~21 planes in pre-flight prep and/or production testing. Remember, there are three 787-9s that were temporary flight test airplanes but sold to customers; there's three alone right there.

Piotrek_ said...

Air India grounded their 2nd 788, LN29 ZA233 VT-AND. It hasn't flown since 4th January:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/VTAND