Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Uptick in 787 flight testing could led to higher August delivery count

In the past one week there has been an increase in 787 flight test activity mostly out of Everett but some activity out of Charleston as well.  In the period from July 31 to August 7 inclusive, Boeing has conducted the first flights of 7 production 787s (B-1 flights).  There were a number of follow on Boeing and customer flights on several other 787s including ferrying 787s to be painted in Ft. Worth.

Of interest, it appears that Boeing is preparing several airframes for delivery to Chinese and Indian carriers.  Of the 30 787s that is finished with assembly activities, 14 are for Air India, China Southern and Hainan.  It looks like Boeing can possibly deliver as many as three 787s each to Hainan and China Southern and at least 1 (probably 2) to Air India.  One aircraft for Air India, ZA242 (LN 90, VT-ANN) has already flown at least 4 customer flights in addition to 5 Boeing test flights).

Boeing Charleston has been also very slow to deliver their 787s.  There are currently 7 airframes on the flightline there plus one more in Ft. Worth being painted but the last delivery from Charleston occurred over a month ago on July 4th.  It doesn't help that most of the 787s (6 out of 8) are waiting to be delivered to the aforementioned problem child airlines (China Southern, Hainan, and Air India).

Boeing does seem to be on track to deliver a significant number of 787s this month if they continue this pace and their customers are ready to accept them into their fleets.  The lack of any significant media attention over the past 1 to 2 weeks has probably calmed nerves and lessened anxiety amongst customers.  I'm still standing by my previous guidance of 1 to 13 this month but their is certainly a better probability now (compared to a week ago) that this number could be exceeded.  Boeing should undertake several more first flights in the days ahead (3 more) where these airplanes should be ready to deliver by the end of the month.  If I count in the Chinese carriers. the number could be as high as 17 to 19.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 








5 comments:

greg said...

"... The lack of any significant media attention over the past 1 to 2 weeks has probably calmed nerves and lessened anxiety amongst customers. ..."

Since the initial entry into service with ANA, until the JAL incident in Boston, it had been pretty quiet on the 787 front.

The first half of this year proved hectic. But hopefully it stays quiet going forward, at least for a while.

BTW, a Qatar 787 (likely A7-BCE) is right now on a delivery flight from Victorville, CA to Doha, according to fightaware.com.

larmeyers said...

Notable that one of the older frames, LN 21 (JAL), flew a B1 Wednesday. Maybe a terrible teen isn't that far away.

Randy Austin said...

Actually I believe AIN ZA242 flew a B-1 (Apr 30) and B-2 (Jul 2) after which it did several flights for certification/air show preparation unrelated to delivery of the airplane. An FCF (Jul 30) was flown for the electrical issue followed by a C1,2 and 3 (Jul 31,Aug 1 & 2). Although it was reported that the electrical issue was found on a customer flight I think it was found on the customer walk prior to the flight. It would have been impossible to fix that and fly the next flight the following day and would have required a Boeing flight prior to putting the customer onboard -- therefore the FCF on the 30th. In the end 6 flights for delivery not 9.

Randy Austin said...

Sorry, AIN C2 and 3 (Aug 4,5)

Guru Josh said...

Was there any uptick in replacements of P100 panels lately?