Friday, November 2, 2012

I'm Baaaack...but only for the moment - Post Sandy 787 Update

Hello everyone,
First off I want to thank you all who have sent me best wishes during the last few days. It's been difficult as I have no power, heat (temps are in the low 40s F overnight) and hot water (for bathing, cleaning, etc.).  I'm hopingto have power back in the enxt couple of days but we're not sure when it'll happen.  Right now I'm camped out in the local public library where there is WIFI (real slow due to all the residents who are also here), electricity and heat.  I'll put up a post but not sure when I will be able to do so again.

Anyway on to business.

Boeing had two quick deliveries on Halloween, let's call them "ghost deliveries" as they weren't expected.  In particular the delivery to United of its 2nd 787.  the information coming from United and even Boeing itself didn't indicate a delivery was imminent but they did deliver ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) on Wednesday.  United just announced that they have finished FAA certification of their 787 operations and now should be ready to start limited service on Monday, Nov. 4th. Boeing should still be able to deliver the two Dreamliners to the carrier in November.  These frame are re-worked frames so we would have to see how fast they would go through the pre-delivery and test flight process as ZA290 was a new build that didn't need any re-work and had only needed 2 test flights before being delivered to United.  It's not known when United will press ZA290 into service. 

The second airplane that was delivered was ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) to ANA which is a reworked frame that had 3 test flights prior to being delivered.  For October, Boeing matched the monthly high of 7 deliveries which was achieved in September.

November as mentioned in the prior post may be big but there are issues that may depress deliveries.  First is the uncertainty over deliveries to the Chinese carriers.  There is a certification issue, rumor has it, with the Chinese aviation authorities (CAAC). 

When asked about it Boeing replied: "In keeping with our standard practices, we work with regulatory authorities in advance of local airlines taking delivery of a new model of airplane. Also, as we’ve stated before, we don’t provide forward-looking comments regarding the production or delivery schedules of our customers."

The issue with CAAC has been reinforced when Boeing put both  ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) for China Southern Airlines and ZA430 (LN 73, B2728) for Hainan into storage at Everett's South Ramp.  This indicates that the issue will take some time to sort out.  Boeing has one more 787s for Hainan Airlines that is on the flightline but so far they have not made a move to store it...yet.  There are several 787s that are in production for both Chinese carriers.  In addition to the aforementioned airplanes that have flown or been pulled out of final assembly and on the flightline, there are 2 787s for China Southern that are in storage or in change incorporation.  At Boeing Charleston there are 3 787s in final assembly for Hainan Airlines and 3 more (all for China Southern) are to start final assembly at either Everett of Boeing Charleston by the end of the year or early January.  This is a total of 11 airframes that are potentially to be stored if the issues are not resolved with CAAC.

Boeing as of today has 14 airplanes that are in pre-flight, flight testing or ready to be delivered.  Rumor has it that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) is to be delivered sometime next week to Air India.  It was to have been delivered last month and it is unknown as to why there was a delay but this is Air India. 'Nuff said.

Qatar Airways seems to be moving towards taking 2 more 787s in November though I'm still trying to get confirmation on this LOT Polish Airlines should take their first 787 in about 10 days as well.  That is 4 aircraft thus far.

Here is what I think will be delivered this month:

ZA261 - Ethiopian - 2 test flights already and flying a 3rd today
ZA286 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA238 - Air India - ready for delivery
ZA289 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA460 - Qatar Airways - 2 test flights thus far
ZA239 - Air India - 2 test flights and in paint
ZA270 - LOT Polish Airlines - 2 Boeing test flights thus far
ZA463 - Qatar Airways - 4 test flights thus far
ZA271 - LOT Polish Airlines - in pre-flight may deliver late this month or by end of December
ZA538 - LAN - in pre-flight and should fly soon

This is a total of 9 (with a possibility of 10) 787s being delivered this month.  Obviously I am not counting any of the Chinese airframes. It remains to be seen how those airframes that are currently in production will fare in terms of getting through pre-flight and being delivered by the end of the month but I can see one more airframe being delivered to ANA in November (probably the re-work frame) and one for JAL may also make it by the end of the month.

Boeing also has moved one of the "terrible teens" from runaway storage to the EMC to start chagne incorporation.  This aircraft is ZA504 (LN 15).  Right now this aircraft is listed to go to ANA but this may change.  ANother aircraft for Qatar Airways has completed change incorporation and paint is now spotted at the Everett Fuel Dock.  This aircraft is ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCC).  Lastly, Boeig loaded ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) into position 1 in the 40-24 surge line to start final assembly.  Boeing is keeping up the assembly rate at around 5 airplanes per month.








8 comments:

Randy Austin said...

Looking at the profiles I think LOT ZA270's second flight was the C-1.

johnv777 said...

Uresh, welcome back. Glad you and your family are safe.
Another thing of note for October: There were 10 B1 flights.
JohnV

English Homework Blog said...

Glad that you are safe. Thanks for the update

Joostdg said...

Good to see you save! good luck with all the repairs! Thanks for taking time for an update even with all that is going on!

Henman said...

Also glad to hear you're safe, Uresh. Thanks for the post, exciting as always. Hang in there, things will hopefully come together soon!

entrophian said...

Great to hear that you made it safe through a very nasty storm, I can imagine there is a lot of damage all around.

I saw that LN34 is in storage too, I guess all chinese frames will get stored now. But it is better to work on frames that could deliver anyway, not wasting stalls on frames that will not deliver. Maybe some other customer gets their frame a little faster thanks to this?

Fedupjohn said...

Uresh,

Glad to hear you have power again. I am in Carteret, NJ right on the Arthur Kill River across from Staten Island.
We lost electric at 7:30 PM Monday and just got it back moments ago.
The river pushed back into our litlle town about a 1/4 of mile with a 15ft tidal surge.
I have alot of catching up to do.
John

Uresh said...

Thanks man, I'm actually still waiting to he power back on. Yeah I heard that area got hit hit hard still stay safe. I'm glad you got through it!